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Zelensky Steps Closer to Mobilization Plunge Amid Dire Warnings
Things continue to feel like a calm before the approaching storm. There is not too much overt activity in the battle space, but various rumblings of a large looming escalation continue to trickle through the grape vine. In a recent article I had mentioned how the Western press and elite...
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In a recent article I had mentioned how the Western press and elite commentariat for the first time began using the taboo ‘C’ word, i.e. “Collapse”, for Ukraine. Now this has opened up the floodgates, causing more and more worried publications to begin turning off their previous holding-the-line narrative filter and actually start describing the Ukrainian situation with truthful urgency.
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I remember in the early days of this blog, one of the most common and constant questions was: “Do you think time is on Russia or the West’s side?” The sentiment from many of the doubters, doomers, or concern-trolls was that time was against Russia, as NATO would only grow stronger, produce more, Ukraine would gather far more men because these commenters didn’t believe Russia’s claims of Ukrainian casualties.
I ask you: What do you think now? Still believe time is on NATO and Ukraine’s side?
It sure doesn’t seem like it these days. I say this as preface to the fact that Russia is slowly taking its time, continuing to build its armaments and potential, and very gradually closing the constrictor squeeze on Ukraine from all sides. Recent rumblings indicate that Ukraine is unable to determine where Russia could choose to strike a more major line-breaking assault due to the nature of Russia’s air strikes not being limited to one particular theater, but destroying Ukraine’s infrastructure in a widespread fashion.
Rezident UA:
MI6 transmitted information to the Presidential Office and the General Staff that the Russian Army had accumulated a large number of Missiles/Lancets/Shaheds and Aerial Bombs for the summer counteroffensive. British intelligence assumes that the Kremlin wants to organize a demonstrative mass attack on several sectors of the front in order to destroy as many Ukrainian military personnel as possible. The main goal of such an attack will be a psychological factor in order to demonstrate the full potential of the Russian army and break the comparison with the Armed Forces of Ukraine.
This plays into new rumors of the Russian Svatovo-Kremennaya front being re-activated to other rumors about Chasov Yar being next for major assault. My point is to highlight the fact that Russia is playing with Ukraine’s sense of uncertainty, and can choose to strike either in Kupyansk or Bakhmut or Zaporozhye, and Ukraine will not be prepared.
We’ve outlined in previous reports how Russia uses its far superior logistical mobility means to constantly hit Ukraine on different axes via the ‘death by a thousand cuts’ strategy, and Ukraine is unable to shift its defenses and reserves fast enough. New reports underline this, for instance:
Ukraine’s “mechanized” brigades are literally being downgraded to foot soldier meat hordes due to lack of vehicles.
Russia made recent progress in the areas west of Bakhmut and are now preparing to launch the assault on Chasov Yar.
From a Russian army affiliated channel:
Russian forces ready to begin seminal Chasov Yar assault: "Our maps for Chasov Yar have already been drawn, roles have been assigned, executors have been appointed. Everything is ready, as soon as the bridgehead on the Canal is ready - we will start."
Sputnik covers why this town is critical:
Why Chasov Yar's Liberation is Critical to Oust Ukrainian Military From Donbass
In short, they explain that Chasov Yar is a key railway hub and sits on a hill overlooking the entire AFU defense agglomeration of the region, which previously included Bakhmut, but now is centered on Kramatorsk-Slavyansk-Konstantinovka.
In the meantime, there are increasing ‘whispers’ of the eventual total evacuation of Kharkov city. Not only due to the electricity problems after Russia’s hits on the region’s power plant, but in anticipation of a new potential front being opened from the north.
Road leaving Kharkov:
Exodus of the population from Kharkov. After statements by the local administration that the entire infrastructure in the city was destroyed, constant problems with electricity the exodus of the population began from the city. The regular bombings by the Russian Air Force and rumors that fighting is about to begin here certainly added to the situation.
And here top Ukrainian accounts mention the unthinkable, with city officials claiming there’s no need to evacuate….
yet:
And even as of this writing, there is a large ongoing attack on Kharkov, with videos pouring out of strikes landing in the already de-powered city.
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With the situation as dire as it looks, there are reports that Zelensky has finally swallowed the bitter pill and pulled the trigger on the first main step of the long-feared mobilization bill to lower the age from 27 to 25:
CNN confirms:
https://edition.cnn.com/2024/04/02/europe/zelensky-signs-conscription-law-intl/index.html
CNN —
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has signed a law that will lower the country’s minimum conscription age from 27 to 25, potentially boosting the number of men available to fight Russia’s invasion.
However, it’s not quite what it seems just
yet:
The law signed by Zelensky on Tuesday lowers the age they can be drafted to 25, but leaves the mobilization age at 27, However, the Ukrainian Parliament is also considering a bill that would reduce the mobilization age to 25.
You see, this allows them to be drafted at 25, but not yet
mobilized onto the actual frontline. The Rada will supposedly vote in April to lower the full mobilization age to 25 as well. Hence, this still means nothing quite yet.
It’s unclear what if anything this will accomplish. Recall I had just posted a video of a top Ukrainian official stating that a reduction to 25 will do nothing, such is the depletion of Ukraine’s forces; he said it needs to be lowered straight down to 19.
Zelensky himself refuses to divulge how many will be mobilized, blaming Russia for the need on the fake claim that Russia itself intends a huge new call-up in June:
Top Russian senators Kartapolov and Gurulev’s responses to the above? “Cocaine’s a helluva drug.”
In one of the earlier articles, Zelensky said that he intends to mobilize more men in order to prepare another offensive for later this year. His reason was revealing: that if Ukraine doesn’t attack first, Russia will do so.
His explanation gives away Ukraine’s strategy. In 2023 Russia sat back and defended against Ukraine’s large ‘offensive’, so here Zelensky appears to believe that if Ukraine can launch some semblance of another attack, it will delay or negate Russia’s own mass offensive which everyone seems to be expecting for this year. This would be Ukraine’s ploy to continue buying time for themselves: launch another futile, fruitless meat attack with massive losses, exchanging tens of thousands of lives for a few more borrowed months for Zelensky’s illegitimate regime from going to the gallows.
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