CORONA Main Coronavirus thread

OldArcher

Has No Life - Lives on TB
Well, well. NOBODY thought The WESTERDAM CRUISE SHIP had any infected people aboard, but NHK TV Japan news Just announced that after 5 nations refused entry AND CAMBODIA LET IT DOCK AND DISEMBARK PASSENGERS, that they just found one elderly lady DOES HAVE COV 19 with symptoms. I wonder where the other passengers went?

O'er th' side, mos' likely...

OA
 

Doomer Doug

TB Fanatic
Oh my gang, now that the story is in the Ne York Times, it is officially mainstream. Until a news story is reported in the Liberal, Elite East Coast media, like the New York Times it ain't got legs. So, it looks to me that Hawaii 5 O, either the 1968 to 1980 plus with Jack Lord, or the new mod squad version with Scott Cann needs to be called in so they can beat up on the virus some.

The link is here and it is now a DONE DEAL that Hawaii will soon be reverting from the Howlies, otherwise called white devils, to the original natives soon o mundo. Oops, oh and by the way BW, the entire hospitality and tourist industry in Hawaii JUST COLLAPSED and all of that economic pandemic stuff I said.


NYT Reports Japanese Man Diagnosed With Virus Visited Resort, Mingled With Hawaiians During Recent Visit
Profile picture for user Tyler Durden
by Tyler Durden
Sun, 02/16/2020 - 12:00

Yesterday, we mentioned that one of the latest cases of COVID-19 confirmed in Japan was a man in his 60s who recently traveled to Hawaii.
While the news was certainly alarming, with few details available, we had little to choice but to wait for the next report.
A few hours later, the New York Times published what appears to be a deeply-sourced story filed from Honolulu. In it, the reporter appears to have pinpointed some of the contacts that the unnamed Japanese man made during his trip to Hawaii - though the most critical piece of information, the source of the man's infection, has yet to be ascertained.

The piece begins from the perspective of Chantelle Pajarillo, a Hawaiian woman spending a long weekend at the famous resort on Waikiki Beach, when she saw a local news report claiming the infected patient may have stayed at the very same resort during his recent trip to the island.
She immediately requested a package of disinfectant wipes and started "wiping down everything."
"I wiped down everything I knew they would touch: the sliding door, the refrigerator, countertops and the bathroom," Ms. Pajarillo said on Saturday as she walked back to the pool at the Grand Waikikian, toting a stack of towels. "I’m a germaphobe myself and I have three little kids so I want to make sure I take every precaution."
According to the NYT, neither Hawaiian health officials nor Japanese health authorities has any idea whether he picked up the virus in Hawaii, in Japan, or possibly while traveling to Hawaii (the option that health officials suspect is the most likely).

Hawaii health officials were working swiftly over the weekend to find anyone who might have had contact with the Japanese couple, who had also visited the island of Maui. Health authorities said the couple, both in their 60s, was not diagnosed until they returned to Japan, but the husband began showing symptoms while still staying in one of Hawaii’s most popular tourist neighborhoods.
But the NYT reporter did find a local resident named John Fujiwara who believes the Japanese patient is a friend of his whom he refued to name. The man recently visited Hawaii and met Fujiwara for a coffee before exchanging gifts of chocolates

Fujiwara said he reached out to a local paper and Hawaiian state health officials with his story. They told him not to panic, and when he offered to self-quarantine, the state said he should go about his day as normal, but report any suspicious symptoms.
Let's back up for a second: We suspect we're not the only ones who were surprised - and not exactly reassured - by the state's response to this man.
True, he could be wrong. But isn't it better to be safe than sorry when a simple one-line email from the state could have put this man in a self-quarantine?

Instead, the man says he plans to go out with his girlfriend as normal because he "has it in writing from the state."

But at least one local resident said he believed that he had spent time with the Japanese man who was later confirmed with the virus. The resident, John Fujiwara, 52, said the friend that he had visited with for about half an hour on Feb. 4 had the same travel itinerary as the man described by state health officials; he also lives in the same city and is also in his 60s. Mr. Fujiwara said he had not been able to reach his friend since he left Hawaii on Feb. 7.
The man seemed healthy, if a bit tired, when they had met to drink coffee, catch up and exchange chocolates as gifts, Mr. Fujiwara said. The man had spent that morning shopping in Chinatown, and had told him that he planned to attend a Japanese language event at a local grocery store immediately after their visit.
Mr. Fujiwara said that he had reached out to state health officials, and had offered to isolate himself after reading a report about the man in The Honolulu Star-Advertiser.
In an email he shared with The New York Times, a disease intervention specialist with the Hawaii Department of Health did not confirm that Mr. Fujiwara’s friend was the one who had been diagnosed, but told him that he should contact the department if he had any symptoms before Tuesday, which would be two weeks after he saw his friend — the maximum incubation period for coronavirus.
"I plan to go to dinner with my girlfriend tonight, unless things change, specifically because I have it in writing from the State of Hawaii Department of Health to continue my daily routine," Mr. Fujiwara said.
For some unexplained reason, state health officials believe the infected Japanese patient didn't have any "prolonged, close contact with Hawaii residents." What we want to know: How can they be so certain of this while claiming to know so little about the man's movements?
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Janice Okubo, a spokeswoman for the Hawaii Department of Health, said that the man who was confirmed with the virus "is not believed to have had any prolonged, close contact with Hawaii residents," but that health officials were continuing to investigate.
Dr. Sarah Park, the state epidemiologist, said the man had most likely been exposed to the virus before leaving Japan or while traveling to Hawaii. He and his wife, who was also confirmed on Saturday with the virus but did not show symptoms while in Hawaii, arrived on Maui on Jan. 28. The man was also symptom-free in Maui, but after the couple moved to Honolulu, on Oahu, on Feb. 3, he began showing signs of a cold.
Outside health experts said people who traveled with the man were most likely to have contracted the hyper-contagious virus (hardly a surprise given the situation on the 'Diamond Princess' and now this new cruise ship situation in Cambodia).
Aubree Gordon, an associate professor of epidemiology at the University of Michigan, said she agreed with Hawaiian health officials that people who had traveled with the man were at greatest risk, though anyone who touched surfaces shortly after he did - such as a faucet or toilet handle - could also be at risk.
"I think we’re going to have a lot of cases like this popping up, where people come into a place and get diagnosed there, or leave and we find out after the fact that they’re sick," Professor Gordon said.
So far, 16 cases of the virus have been confirmed in the US, while officials from the CDC have warned that more are expected, particularly in California and Texas where the Americans who traveled aboard the evacuation flights are being quarantined and examined.
Surprisingly, we've heard little about efforts to contain the virus in Hawaii. None of the airports screening Americans traveling back from infected parts of the world are in the state. It's without a doubt a point of vulnerability given the high numbers of travelers from China and Japan who visit.
But given what we know so far, we wouldn't be surprised to see more cases popping up in the state.

Copyright ©2009-2020 ZeroHedge.com/ABC Media, LTD
 

bw

Fringe Ranger
This makes so much sense. I wondered why people were calculating death rate based on the total number of cases, when they’re adding several thousand new cases per day. That wouldn’t be accurate, because all the new cases from the past week or two haven’t even run their full course yet.

No criticism of your post, but this has been discussed multiple times. It just sort of gets shuffled under the rug, and you have to keep reminding people. There's a lot of denial in coping with the higher percentages.
 

Troke

On TB every waking moment
Yes, that was ultimately and thankfully true. However, the human race survived for hundreds of years with the smallpox virus floating around before we developed a vaccine.
Yeah, the white folks did because over the centuries, we got a sort of immunity from survivals. But the Red folks got wiped out. I think total for the Mandans of No. Dak.

And we are in the position of the Mandans.
 

OldArcher

Has No Life - Lives on TB
The Long March.

WHO will attempt to Quarantine, (Sequester), or Stand Down our West Coast Air Bases under a level six protocol.

Question or statement?

The Long March.

Coming to a calendar soon.

Sounds like advertising for a Bad B Movie, or possible black swan on a migratory flu vector...

Who knows!

Yep. Th' last pick... Howsomever, it's a comin' ta neightborhood near yuh...

OA
 

OldArcher

Has No Life - Lives on TB
I wonder if, during the last week of January, HAWAII had any, taxi drivers, hotel workers or other tourists infected people who had not yet been sick enough to seek treatment. It is a favorite vacation spot for Asians to vacation, and my daughter and her hubby spent the last week of January there!

What say? Anyone think it was a bad idea?
It’s been 14 days though, so they’re probably fine, but they wouldn’t tell me if they were sick because I warned them not to go.

've 'em checked out... Best ta know, than wond'r an' not know... This is lookin' more, an' more, like a delibrat' war plan... Th' bastid's knew, an' said nothin'...

OA
 

Troke

On TB every waking moment
And most families lost a number of children to it, and almost all adults in Europe at one point had hideous scars on their faces and other extremities - people don't realize this because painters avoided showing them and heavy makeup was popular among the upper classes (because of the scaring).

Adults could also catch it and nearly die/be disabled - Queen Elizabeth the First almost died from it when still quite young, and of course, it (along with measles) may have killed up to 90 percent of everyone in North America (Native Americans).
Lost an uncle and aunt to it when they were children back in 1862. Milkmaids were in fashion because they did not get it due to cowpox. so had clear complexions None of my family ever reacted to the vaccine (no scars) and neither did my Dw's family. Both dairy farmers.
 

OldArcher

Has No Life - Lives on TB
(fair use applies)


Ontario couple have recovered but are still testing positive for coronavirus
By Rob Ferguson Queen's Park Bureau
Thu., Feb. 13, 2020

Ontario’s first two cases of the new coronavirus — a husband and wife — have recovered but remain in isolation at their home because tests still show them carrying the bug, authorities say.

Nose and throat swabs taken since the man was released from Sunnybrook hospital two weeks ago continue to show traces of coronavirus in both him and his wife, who was never hospitalized.

Public health officials are trying to decipher what that indicates as scientists in China and around the world work to pinpoint more traits of the virus, which has never before been seen in humans.

“There is some genetic material or viral material left in the individual specimens,” Dr. Vanessa Allen of Public Health Ontario said Thursday.

“We don’t know that means, whether that’s live or dead virus,” Allen said. “There’s some component of virus in those specimens and the criteria that have been laid out are being followed, that we required two negative specimens until we understand more about what that means.”

Those tests must be taken at least 24 hours apart.

Ontario’s chief medical officer of health said the apparent stubbornness of the coronavirus in the Toronto-area couple, who returned from China Jan. 22 aboard a China Southern Airlines flight, may be due to their age.

The man is in his 50s and has some other health conditions that could impair his ability to shed the virus, Dr. David Williams told a news conference at Queen’s Park.

“Younger people tend to have a shorter course and throw it off much quicker,” Williams said.

That is apparent in the case of Ontario’s third case of the new coronavirus, a Western University student in her 20s who returned Jan. 23 from visiting her sick parents in the outbreak’s epicentre of Wuhan. She recovered within three days and was cleared Wednesday.

Allen said Ontario’s testing process for the bug, now named COVID-19 by the World Health Organization, has now been accelerated.

Public health lab technicians in Ontario have begun using the same method as the federal lab in Winnipeg where previous cases have been sent for confirmation.

Negative tests in Ontario are no longer being shipped to Winnipeg, meaning cases can be ruled out within 24 hours of the swabs being taken instead of waiting another two or three days for a second test in Manitoba.

However, samples that test positive in Ontario are still being sent to Winnipeg for confirmation.

As of Thursday morning, Ontario had 15 cases under investigation and awaiting results. There have been no new confirmed cases in the last two weeks, despite the rising number of deaths and illnesses in China and to a lesser extent in other countries.

There are no more than 60,000 cases of the new coronavirus around the world, mostly in China.

Elsewhere in Canada, British Columbia has four cases.

Three people from Canada’s first repatriation flight from China have been tested for the novel coronavirus after showing symptoms of cough or fever at CFB Trenton but those tests have come back negative, Williams said.

Health Minister Christine Elliott said she is pleased that Ontario has not been hit harder by the coronavirus, although Williams noted authorities are staying vigilant.

“We are confident it is being contained,” Elliott said on the way into a cabinet meeting on Thursday.

“The system is working. People are doing their part and our medical professionals are doing what they need to do as well.”

If'n they's recover'd, but they's still positive, they's still infected... Mean's they's still shedders... Folks, they's tryin' ta confuxe yuh wi' nonsense, smoke, 'n mirrors. They ain't figured it out yet. Cain't be a little bit pregnant, 'r a little bit dead... Yuh is, or yuh ain't. Ta th' TPTB, yuh mealy mouthed bastid's, we're on ta yuh... Tell th' truth... E'en then, ain't sure anybody'll believe yuh... Busted Flush, that's what yuh are...

OA
 

OldArcher

Has No Life - Lives on TB
View: https://twitter.com/jenniferatntd/status/1228890938304598018


Jennifer Zeng @jenniferatntd
10:56 PM · Feb 15, 2020

Another bombshell. Shanghai Public Health Clinical Center, on Jan. 5, reported to #China's National Health Commission that they had obtained the entire genome of a virus (89.11% similarity with #SARS), & suggested control measures at public places and antiviral therapy

View: https://twitter.com/jenniferatntd/status/1228892742928957440


Jennifer Zeng @jenniferatntd
11:03 PM · Feb 15, 2020

Meaning Shanghai already found a new virus ( to be named #CoVid2019 later) on Jan.5 and suggested taking control measures at public places. However, the National Health Commission did nothing. #Wuhan was still organizing a grand banquet on Jan 18, in which 40 K families attended

These bastid's knew what was a goin' on, an unleashed it on their own people... Such evil is mind bogglin' an' beyon' belief. Hell's too good fer 'em...

OA
 

Doomer Doug

TB Fanatic
I think the feeble and increasingly farcical efforts of the Hawaii officials, medical, media, political etc efforts to spin the FACT they had an virus infected person, likely NOT SHOWING SYMPTOMS running around their islands, buying coffee and giving people chocolate, and even though he came in contact with various people, many of them UNKNOWN, but didn't infect anybody else to be astounding. Perhaps the Three Stooges take over the virus hunt on the Hawaiian islands?

I mean between the lady driving around in an uber cab in London, and this guy POTENTIALLY EXPOSING, well how many? I think this is just going to slowly build up, over the next 2 to 8 weeks and then, looking back it will be totally clear how we ended up with this global pandemic.

It is not a little thing that ALL hospitality industry workers, even if they don't have any medical issues, will not have a paycheck for weeks, and possibly months into the future. Does anybody think a "tourist," will fly anywhere, or take a cruise ship anywhere until POSSIBLY 2021? Which is nearly a year away from now? and how will they live through that, and how will the state of hawaii, or the unemployment system, or food stamp system deal with that.

BW, I just saw an article where Trump was boasting, or maybe somebody was saying that some 7 million food stamp recipients were off the roles under Trump. Again, the economic pandemic may reverse that also.

Again, this is a two pronged disaster in my view: A "potential" Spanish Flu type MEDICAL SITUATION, or an economic pandemic that devastates ENTIRE INDUSTRIES. I mean if you aren't in the hospitality industry in Hawaii what do you do? Maybe fish, but our pineapple is all grown outside of Manilla these days, and the list goes on.
 

Tarryn

Senior Member
View: https://mobile.twitter.com/HelenBranswell/status/1229110985073577985



Helen Branswell

@HelenBranswell


The #COVID19 case in Egypt has no symptoms & was only detected because he/she was a contact of a person from China who tested positive after returning from a business trip to Cairo. Makes one wonder: How many cases are being missed? http://emro.who.int/media/news/update-on-covid-19-in-the-eastern-mediterranean-region.html…


Image

1:31 PM · Feb 16, 2020·Twitter Web App
https://mobile.twitter.com/HelenBranswell/status/1229110985073577985/retweets
https://mobile.twitter.com/HelenBranswell/status/1229110985073577985/likes



Helen Branswell

@HelenBranswell

·
4h

Replying to
@HelenBranswell
1. Something looks odd about this #Covid19 report,
@WHOEMRO
. Was the Chinese traveler sick while in Egypt? If he/she was in Egypt from Jan. 21-Feb. 4, he/she would have had to have been infected before leaving China, ie Jan. 20-21 at the latest. But only tested positive Feb. 11?




Helen Branswell

@HelenBranswell

·
4h

2. There are 22 days between when the Chinese business person left China (if he/she traveled directly from China to Egypt) to the date of diagnosis, a week after his/her return. Has the possibility that the person got infected after returning to China been ruled out?
 

Allotrope

Inactive
There are many indications that China is not going to engage in large fiscal stimulus to try to levitate its economy. The Chinese leaders primarily care about the economy to keep the people happy therefor keeping themselves in power. With COVID-19, the people are not going to be happy anyway so their government is reallocating resources to impose greater control. The economy is secondary.

When Wall Street and the world finally believes this and Chinese bankruptcies kick in, I expect major drops in all indexes, global recession very likely followed by global depression, failure of the precious metals exchanges as people will stand for delivery which can not be fulfilled, oft mentioned supply chain disasters, and major bank failures in many countries. From there change could accelerate.

All these can occur even if the virus affects only China.

I do not want my posts to be all doom and gloom but I do believe that this pandemic stands one of the highest chances for causing major world change that I have seen. My record is parfect and I an never wong so take that into account please.
 

ainitfunny

Saved, to glorify God.
You need a mask only to go into the great wide world where others are, and you need to re-use it because you'll probably have very few of them. And you should be wearing goggles at the same time.

FWIW- I DISAGREE.

JMNSHO- I believe IT MATTERS, HOW BADLY EXPOSED TO THE VIRUS YOU ARE.
I am of the opinion that a person's immune system can often fight off a mild exposure and that
the more careful you are to LIMIT THE VIRAL LOAD that you body has to fight off, the better chance you might have to survive or have only a mild case of corona virus disease.

NEVER GIVE UP and stop fighting to avoid serious or repeated exposure!


I BOUGHT this tshirt:
[IMAGE]https://6dollarshirts.com/image/cache//data/designs/dont-ever-give-up/DontEverGiveUp_t_shirt_sand-750x750.jpg[/IMAGE]
 

marsh

On TB every waking moment
Here is a blog post about the Wuhan coronavirus; important graphics did not copy over so see link for them:
Fair use cited

Saturday, February 15, 2020
The Covid19 death rate is much higher than 2%
The Covid19 death rate is much higher than 2%

I understand why Moldbug wanted to write a post on the coronavirus. As usual, Moldbug was ahead of the curve. The reason is that he reads sources that other people don’t read. If you read the same as everyone else, you think the same as everyone else. This is the main (respectable) reason I’m on twitter, (other than the shitposting which is like terrible cheap carbs of reading material). 95% of it is garbage, but the remaining 5% is stuff you just don’t find anywhere else.

And what Moldbug, and MorlockP, and Loki Julianus and some others have figured out is that there’s a decent chance that this is the start of the shit hitting the fan, but nobody in the west seems much concerned yet. It’s a fascinating insight into how people respond to gradually unfolding disaster. We expect disaster to strike out of the blue. One day, the Soviets nuke us, or an asteroid strikes. Or, failing that, we expect to see a fairly rapid and linear growth of things getting worse, like in a disaster movie where the plot has to unfold in a predictable manner to all be wrapped up in 90 minutes.

What our instincts don’t work well for, however, is exponential growth. It just doesn’t fit people’s casual intuitions about what’s going to happen. The probably mythical story about the inventor of chess is that he asked to be paid as a reward by the king in a grain of rice for the first square, two grains for the second square, four for the third square, and so on. Of course, the point of the story is that the king was an idiot and by the end figured out he couldn’t possible pay. Ha ha ha. Nobody would be that dumb.

Well, here’s some grains of rice accumulating.



If you take the number of coronavirus cases reported, it’s close to an exponential curve. Not quite, however. If you plot things on a log scale, you can see the rate of increase in reported cases slowing down.



By eyeballing the log scale graph, you can see that things started to decline starting around Jan 30th. If you run a regression of log number of cases on number of days since outbreak, from Jan 30th until February 13th, you get a coefficient on time of 0.126, or 12.6% growth per day. If you want to be conservative, and just use the February 5th – 11th data, excluding the big jump on February 12th when they changed reporting standards, you still get an average growth of 0.078, or 7.8% growth per day. The R2 of this regression is 0.98, by the way, so this is a shockingly good fit. If you use the whole period, you get a whopping 19.9% average growth per day. And even with the slowdown, the R2 is still over 0.92.

Since these are only rough data, because God knows how many unreported cases there are, suppose the number of cases is growing about 10% per day. There’s a rule of thumb for turning growth rates into doubling times called the rule of 72. Divide 72 by the growth rate and you get a decent estimate of the doubling time. So in this case, 72/10 = 7.2. In other words, on current trends we expect the number of cases to double every week. Even at the low rate of 7.8%, the number of cases is expected to double in around 9 days. We won’t use this rule exactly, but it’s pretty good for thinking about intuition.

And this causes all sorts of weird mistakes. One, which I think is underappreciated by most people, is wildly distorted estimates of the death rate.

The number that keeps getting currently quoted in the press is a death rate of around 2%. As of February 13th, there have been 1,384 deaths out of 64,473 cases, according to worldometer. This gives a death rate of 2.15%. Which sounds pretty encouraging. It seems like you have to get very unlucky to actually die from it.

But the strange thing is, there’s another, smaller set of people talking about a death rate of 16%. What’s that? Well, it’s the ratio of deaths (1,384) to closed cases (8,566), or 16.16%.

Now, you might look at it be concerned about the definition of closed cases. Maybe they’re just very reluctant to declare someone cured, so there’s lowball numbers here (whereas they’re less reluctant to declare someone dead). Many of the diagnosed will eventually recover, but it takes ages to classify them as healthy again. So no big deal! 16% is too high, and the true number will be much lower.

Well, here’s a pretty strong reason to prefer the ratio using closed cases. From the descriptions you read about the progression of cases in places like Hong Kong, the disease generally takes 2-3 weeks from diagnosis to actually kill you.

Why is this a big deal?

Because the number of cases is growing at around 8-10% a day. And as long as that holds, the number of deaths will always be lagging the total number of cases in the growth phase. The death rate actually ought to be compared with the number of cases from 2-3 weeks earlier, because that’s the number of people who could have reasonably died by this point. It’s also the expectation of the fraction of currently alive new cases who will eventually die. Again, this may seem like pedantry. Except that the number of cases is growing 8% per day!

Let’s start with lower bounds. Assume that average growth in cases is conservatively 7.8%. Also, let’s assume the disease kills you quickly, on average in two weeks (which is optimistic for the purposes of our estimated death rate being on the low side). In this case, the number of cases in the denominator is too high by a factor of e^(14*0.078) = 2.98. So the true death rate will end up being 2.15*2.98 = 6.42%

If it takes 2.5 weeks on average to kill you, the death rate will end up being 2.15* e^(17.5*0.078) = 8.43%.

But we’re using a pretty conservative estimate of growth rates. Suppose you take dates since February 5th, but include the increase in cases on Feb 12th and 13th. Then the average growth rate is 9.75%. Add a 2.5 week average time to death, and the death rate is actually 2.15*e^(17.5*0.0975) = 11.85%. If the disease takes three weeks on average to kill you, the true death rate is 16.67%. Which sounds very close to the death rate from closed cases. Add in growth rates from the earlier period, and the numbers get even higher.

Plug in your own assumptions or data fiddling, and the answers fall right out. There’s obviously big standard errors on this stuff. But one thing is pretty clear. There is more than enough evidence at this point, no matter how you cut it, that the overall death rate is going to be a lot higher than 2%. I’m betting on 5-10%. You ought to be making plans accordingly.

This doesn’t tell you about the rate of transmission, of course, either in China or the US. Maybe we’ll lucky, and it won’t turn into a pandemic outside China. Want to bet on that?

The good news from all this is that most people don’t care about China, haven’t read reports of any major outbreak in the US, and so aren’t really concerned. Which means that if you do think that there’s a non-trivial chance that the porridge may totally hit the propeller in a month or two, it’s still relatively easy to buy at least several months of storable food supplies. Amazon will still deliver them in a few days. Prices will be the same as normal. The guy delivering them has a very low chance of having the coronavirus. Maybe those things will still be true in three months. Maybe they won’t.

For the sake of a few hundred bucks, you’d be mad not to. You want to have a viable strategy in place to be able to not leave your house for an extended period of time. This is just basic finance. You want to hedge left tail outcomes, especially if the outcome is a catastrophe, and the cost of hedging it is very cheap. Surely everyone who understands finance is doing this, right?

Ha ha, no, of course they’re not. We’ve ignored the largest reason smart people don’t do this stuff. It’s unfashionable. It’s for loser, tin foil prepper types. Do you really want to be doing this stuff? Tell your friends you’ve started buying large quantities of canned food and you think they should too, and they’ll look at you like you’re a conspiracy theory loon. They’ll have a good laugh.

So did the King, when they were only up to the fourth chess square.
Posted by Shylock Holmes at 10:00 AM

=============
I believe Dr. John says it doubles approx every 6 days
 
Via Dr. Niman Posted 41 minutes ago

COVID-19 coronavirus: a twelfth confirmed case in France
published on 15.02.20

The Ministry of Solidarity and Health informs of a 12th confirmed case of infection with the new coronavirus (COVID-19). The patient, of British nationality, is one of the people who had stayed in the Contamines-Montjoie chalet where, after the discovery of a first case, five people (secondary cases) were then diagnosed positive last week . The patient has remained in strict isolation in a referral hospital in Lyon since last Saturday, in accordance with the reinforced surveillance procedure for contact cases. His condition does not cause concern today.

Since his arrival at the hospital, he has been regularly evaluated and tested. A sample has tested positive for coronavirus today. This underlines the relevance of the isolation measures recommended for high-risk contact persons implemented in France.

France now has twelve confirmed cases of COVID-19, including six in the context of grouped contamination, in a chalet in Contamines-Montjoie. As of February 15, four patients were cured and discharged from the hospital and one patient died.
A specific telephone number has been opened locally to answer questions from those directly concerned: 0 800 100 379.

Find out more
Toll free platform "New Coronavirus": 0800 130 000, open from 9 am to 7 pm, 7 days a week

On the site of the Ministry of Solidarity and Health
On the site of the Government
On the site of Public Health France
On the site WHO
Twitter @Alertesanitaire


===

.
 

Baloo

Veteran Member
EndGameWW3‏ @EndGameWW3 12m12 minutes ago

Coronavirus Impact: Pay Attention To Shanghai, And Japan Infection Rates via @forbes
No clue if true but there are twitter posts that keep getting removed talking about numerous cases in usa. For instance there was a thread about 6 cases confirmed in Buffalo NY from a nurse. That thread is gone now... I believe its true. TPTB do everything to stop an economic collapse. In 2 weeks we will know. I think its really bad. While the death rate is 2%...25% need ICU... if thousands get it...its a 25% death rate.
 

jward

passin' thru
Tracking coronavirus: Map, data and timeline

The tables below show confirmed cases of coronavirus (2019-nCoV, officially known as SARS-CoV-2 or COVID-19) in China and other countries. To see a distribution map and a timeline, scroll down. There are currently 71,330 confirmed cases worldwide, including 1,775 fatalities.





Last update: 16 February 2020 at 8:00 p.m. ET


MAINLAND CHINACasesDeathsNotesLinks
Hubei province
(includes Wuhan)
58,1821,6968,024 serious, 1,773 criticalSource
Guangdong province1,316271 serious, 32 criticalSource
Henan province1,2461635 serious, 33 criticalSource
Zhejiang province1,167049 serious, 27 criticalSource
Hunan province1,006357 seriousSource
Anhui province973612 criticalSource
Jiangxi province925149 seriousSource
Jiangsu province61706 serious, 4 criticalSource
Chongqing551537 serious, 13 criticalSource
Shandong province541216 serious, 14 criticalSource
Sichuan province495315 criticalSource
Heilongjiang province4571173 seriousSource
Beijing381410+ seriousSource
Shanghai331114 serious, 4 criticalSource
Tianjin1243Source
Other regions2,20215Source
Undisclosed342Source
TOTAL70,5481,77010,644 serious
10,844 recovered
7,264 suspected


REGIONSCasesDeathsNotesLinks
Hong Kong5715 critical, 2 serious, 1 recoveredSource
Taiwan2012 recoveredSource
Macau1001 recoveredSource
TOTAL8727 serious


INTERNATIONALCasesDeathsNotesLinks
Japan414*19 serious, 17 recoveredSource
Singapore7505 critical, 19 recoveredSource
Thailand3402 serious, 14 recoveredSource
South Korea3009 recoveredSource
Malaysia2208 recoveredSource
Australia15010 recoveredSource
Germany1603 recoveredSource
Vietnam1607 recoveredSource
United States1503 recoveredSource
France1214 recoveredSource
United Kingdom908 recoveredSource
Canada801 recoveredSource
UAE901 serious, 3 recovered Source
Philippines312 recoveredSource
India303 recoveredSource
Italy302 seriousSource
Russia202 recoveredSource
Spain202 recoveredSource
Nepal101 recoveredSource
Cambodia101 recoveredSource
Sri Lanka101 recoveredSource
Finland101 recoveredSource
Sweden10Source
Belgium101 recoveredSource
Egypt10Source
TOTAL695319 serious/critical
Notes

  • Hubei province, China: The numbers include clinically-diagnosed cases, which means they were not confirmed by laboratory testing.
  • Japan: The total includes 4 asymptomatic cases, which are not included in the government’s official count.
  • Japan: The total includes 355 people from the “Diamond Princess” cruise ship. They are not included in the government’s official count.
  • North Korea: Unconfirmed reports about 1, 5, or 7 cases in North Korea cannot be verified. If cases are confirmed by the North Korean government, they will be added to this list.
 

jward

passin' thru
continued

Timeline (GMT)
17 February

  • 01:00: 1 new case in South Korea. (Source)
  • 00:59: China’s National Health Commission reports 34 new cases and 2 new deaths across the mainland, excluding Hubei province. Their locations have not yet been disclosed. Compared to yesterday’s national update, there were 115 new cases and 5 new deaths outside Hubei province. (Source)
  • 00:44: 2 new cases in Hunan province, China. (Source)
  • 00:43: 1 new case in Beijing. (Source)
  • 00:30: 11 new cases in Anhui province, China. (Source)
  • 00:29: 14 new cases in Sichuan province, China. (Source)
  • 00:24: 15 new cases and 3 new deaths in Henan province, China. (Source)
  • 00:09: 4 new cases in Shandong province, China. (Source)
16 February

  • 23:58: 12 new cases in Heilongjiang province, China. (Source)
  • 23:39: 3 new cases in Shanghai. (Source)
  • 22:50: 4 new cases in Chongqing, China. (Source)
  • 22:48: 1,933 new cases and 100 new deaths in Hubei province, China. (Source)
  • 19:30: 1 new case in the United Arab Emirates. (Source)
  • 12:50: 3 new cases in Singapore. (Source)
  • 11:01: 2 new cases and 1 new death in Taiwan. (Source 1, Source 2)
  • 10:29: 1 new case in Japan. (Source)
  • 10:22: 5 new cases in Japan. (Source)
  • 09:20: 1 new case in Hong Kong. (Source)
  • 07:05: 2 new cases in Tianjin, China. (Source)
  • 07:00: 3 new cases in Chongqing, China. (Source)
  • 02:15: 5 new cases in Beijing. (Source)
  • 02:10: 13 new cases in Jiangsu province, China. (Source)
  • 01:35: 70 new cases in Japan. They were found on the “Diamond Princess” cruise ship off Yokohama, raising the ship’s total to 355. (Source)
  • 01:24: 12 new cases in Jiangxi province, China. (Source)
  • 01:22: 12 new cases in Anhui province, China. (Source)
  • 01:20: 3 new cases and 1 new death in Hunan province, China. The death was previously reported by China’s National Health Commission. (Source)
  • 01:18: 5 new cases in Zhejiang province, China. (Source)
  • 01:13: 22 new cases in Guangdong province, China. (Source)
  • 01:05: 2 new cases in Shanghai. (Source)
  • 01:01: 1 new case in South Korea. (Source)
  • 00:55: 1 new case in Tianjin, China. (Source)
  • 00:53: China’s National Health Commission reports 100 new cases and 1 new death on the mainland, excluding Hubei province. Their locations have not yet been released. Compared to yesterday’s national update, there were 166 new cases and 3 new deaths outside Hubei province. (Source)
  • 00:44: 20 new cases in Heilongjiang province, China. (Source)
  • 00:41: 11 new cases and 2 new deaths in Sichuan province, China. (Source)
  • 00:10: 19 new cases in Henan province, China. (Source)
  • 00:06: 5 new cases in Shandong province, China. (Source)
15 February

  • 23:07: 6 new cases in Chongqing, China. (Source)
  • 22:15: 1,843 new cases and 139 new deaths in Hubei province, China. (Source)
  • 20:34: 1 new case in France. (Source)
  • 15:55: 1 new case in Malaysia. Former passenger of the Westerdam cruise ship. (Source)
  • 13:01: 5 new cases in Singapore. (Source)
  • 12:15: 1 new case in Japan. (Source)
  • 10:07: 2 new cases in Shandong province, China. (Source)
  • 10:06: 1 new case in Chongqing, China. (Source)
  • 10:05: First death in France, first in Europe. (Source)
  • 09:05: 8 new cases in Japan. (Source)
  • 08:47: 67 new cases in Japan. They were found on the “Diamond Princess” cruise ship off Yokohama, raising the ship’s total to 285. (Source)
  • 07:03: 2 new cases in Japan. The third case in the article was previously reported. (Source)
  • 06:05: 1 new case in Thailand. (Source)
  • 05:19: 2 new cases in Malaysia. (Source)
  • 04:30: 3 new cases and 1 new death in Beijing. The death was previously reported by the National Health Commission. (Source)
  • 04:18: 1 new case in Tianjin, China. (Source)
  • 03:18: 1 new case in Japan. (Source)
  • 02:33: 7 new cases in Sichuan province, China. (Source)
  • 02:25: 7 new cases in Shandong province, China. (Source)
  • 02:20: 11 new cases in Jiangsu province, China. (Source)
  • 02:02: 13 new cases in Jiangxi province, China. (Source)
  • 02:00: 16 new cases in Anhui province, China. (Source)
  • 01:55: 13 new cases in Hunan province, China. (Source)
  • 01:52: 7 new cases in Zhejiang province, China. (Source)
  • 01:51: 28 new cases in Henan province, China. (Source)
  • 01:04: 33 new cases in Guangdong province, China. (Source)
  • 00:10: China’s National Health Commission reports 193 new cases and 3 new deaths on the mainland, excluding Hubei province. Their locations have not yet been disclosed. When compared to the previous day, there were 221 new cases and 4 new deaths outside Hubei province. (Source)
14 February

  • 23:45: 8 new cases in Shanghai. (Source)
  • 23:35: 7 new cases in Heilongjiang province, China. (Source)
  • 23:30: 5 new cases in Chongqing, China. (Source)
  • 23:10: 2,420 new cases and 139 new deaths in Hubei province, China. (Source)
  • 21:10: 1 new presumptive confirmed case in BC, Canada. (Source)
  • 17:00: First case in Egypt. (Source)
  • 14:03: 1 new case in Japan. (Source)
  • 14:00: 1 new case in Japan. (Source)
  • 13:54: 1 new case in Japan. (Source)
  • 13:50: 1 new case in Japan. (Source)
  • 11:05: 9 new cases in Singapore. (Source)
  • 10:09: 2 new cases in Japan. (Source)
  • 09:15: 3 new cases in Hong Kong. (Source)
  • 08:47: 3 new cases and 1 new death in Chongqing, China. (Source)
  • 08:02: 4 new cases in Shandong province, China. (Source)
  • 07:51: 1 new case in Japan. (Source)
  • 03:25: China’s National Health Commission reports 267 new cases and 5 new deaths on the mainland, excluding Hubei province. Hubei Province deducted 108 prior deaths from the death toll due to double counting. (Source)
  • 00:43: 1 new case in Japan. (Source)
13 February

  • 23:45: 4,823 new cases and 116 new deaths in Hubei province, China. 1,043 cases which were previously reported were deducted from the government’s figures. (Source)
  • 14:50: 3 new cases in Hong Kong. (Source)
  • 15:10: 1 new case in the United States. First in Texas. (Source)
  • 12:40: 1 new case in Japan. (Source)
  • 11:55: 1 new case, a fatality, in Japan. This is the first death in Japan. (Source 1)
  • 11:36: 8 new cases in Singapore. (Source)
  • 11:15: 1 new case in Japan. (Source)
  • 10:13: 1 new case in Malaysia. (Source)
  • 09:05: 1 new case in Japan. (Source)
  • 08:15: China’s National Health Commission reports 312 new cases and 12 new deaths on the mainland, excluding Hubei province. (Source)
  • 05:15: 1 new case in Vietnam. (Source)
  • 03:10: 44 new cases in Japan. They were found on the “Diamond Princess” cruise ship off Yokohama, raising the ship’s total to 218. (Source)
  • 00:25: 1 new case in California, United States. (Source)
12 February

  • 23:48: 14,840 new cases, including clinically diagnosed cases, and 242 new deaths in Hubei province, China. (Source)
  • 18:53: 1 new case in the United Kingdom. (Source)
  • 08:24: 1 new case in Hong Kong. (Source)
  • 07:00: 3 new cases in Singapore. (Source)
  • 02:53: 1 new case in Japan. It is one of the quarantine officers who was working on board the “Diamond Princess” cruise ship off Yokohama. This case is not included in the total for the ship’s passengers and crew. (Source)
  • 02:14: China’s National Health Commission reports 377 new cases and 3 new deaths across the mainland, excluding Hubei province. The deaths were in Henan province, Hunan province, and Chongqing. (Source)
11 February

  • 23:55: 39 new cases in Japan. They were found on the “Diamond Princess” cruise ship off Yokohama, raising the ship’s total to 174. (Source)
  • 22:17: 1,638 new cases and 94 new deaths in Hubei province, China. (Source)
  • 21:01: 1 new case in Thailand. (Source)
  • 19:25: 2 new cases in Germany. (Source)
  • 16:10: 7 new cases in Hong Kong. (Source)
  • 14:59: 2 new cases in Singapore. (Source)
  • 06:57: 2 new cases in Japan. (Source)
  • 02:37: 1 new case in Vietnam. (Source)
  • 01:14: 1 new case in California, United States. (Source)
  • 01:00: 1 new case in South Korea. (Source)
  • 00:13: China’s National Health Commission reports 370 new cases and 5 new deaths on the mainland. Of the deaths, one each in: Beijing, Tianjin, Heilongjiang province, Anhui province, and Henan province. (Source)
10 February

  • 22:10: 2,097 new cases and 103 new deaths in Hubei province, China. (Source)
  • 17:56: 1 new case in the United Arab Emirates. (Source)
  • 16:00: 4 new cases in Hong Kong. (Source)
  • 14:20: 2 new cases in Hong Kong. (Source)
  • 12:30: 2 new cases in Singapore. (Source)
  • 09:46: 4 new cases in the United Kingdom. (Source)
  • 05:13: 65 new cases in Japan. They were found on the “Diamond Princess” cruise ship off Yokohama, raising the ship’s total to 135. (Source)
  • 01:01: 1 new case in Malaysia. (Source)
For the full timeline, click here.
Chart
2122020charts-1024x683.png


 
The one thing I **cannot** get over is that the healthy recoveries from the virus appear to be non-asian, and the most sick ARE asian.

My guess - the virus has yet to take hold in a population other than non-asian. So far the published numbers are tiny. Germany, USA, France, UK, a total of 100 people? Of those with a severe case? Their quality of care?

Assuming a proclivity to find an abundant number of Asian hosts, how long until it evolves to find a home in other race types?

I'm inclined to think it will be a different story after a few thousand cases in Europe and North America. I do hope this is a good story with a happy ending.

===

.
 

Texican

Live Free & Die Free.... God Freedom Country....
FWIW- I DISAGREE.

JMNSHO- I believe IT MATTERS, HOW BADLY EXPOSED TO THE VIRUS YOU ARE.

I am of the opinion that a person's immune system can often fight off a mild exposure and that the more careful you are to LIMIT THE VIRAL LOAD that you body has to fight off, the better chance you might have to survive or have only a mild case of corona virus disease.

aif,

What is a mild exposure????

Walk thru a room where an infected was in two weeks ago and by all the experts the Virus is dead and you would be exposed to the dead Virus....

If you are exposed to the Virus you are exposed.... No being mildly exposed, kind of like not being partially pregnant or dead....

One strand of the Virus can sicken you and ultimately kill you.... The body does not recognize this new Virus until it is replicating....

Texican....
 
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