ECON Take a look at the marine traffic around the west coast ports.

end game

end game

Veteran Member
Brought this up in another post but I thought it might be beneficial to look at how the lack of products coming in might affect the availability of items needed or simply not needed. This map shows ship traffic around the world. What we are interested in is the traffic on the west coast since most products made in the East are landed there. Normally CNY is over and the ships are showing up after their 16 day transit. Zoom in on the Long Beach area and you'll see the scope of the shortage before us.

MarineTraffic: Global Ship Tracking Intelligence | AIS Marine Traffic

MarineTraffic Live Ships Map. Discover information and vessel positions for vessels around the world. Search the MarineTraffic ships database of more than 550000 active and decommissioned vessels. Search for popular ships globally. Find locations of ports and ships using the near Real Time ships...
www.marinetraffic.com
 
Hfcomms

Hfcomms

EN66iq
I’ve been more concerned about supply chain issues here than I have been about the virus. The virus itself may or may not be bad here. The lack of goods which we import from China and lack of raw materials from China we use to manufacture will impact us all sharply. Americans are not used to empty store shelves like so many places around the world. When that panic of lack of goods takes place the reaction here will eclipse the rest of the world. Time is running out and you better have what you need.
 
twobarkingdogs

twobarkingdogs

Veteran Member
So I posted the below on a thread in the BS back on 2/13. It could have been posted anywhere but I put in the econ thread from there. Background is I retired 2 years ago from a large retailer. Several current employees one of whom is a higher ups has a BOL/vacation home in my AO so I keep up with the going on's.

Anyway from 2/13

tbd

The spring selling season is almost upon us and there should be no identified shortages in goods. This is mostly due to timing as overseas manufactured spring oriented goods were produced last fall and in transit to the US over the last couple of months. US/Can/Mex manufactured goods are sitting in warehouses awaiting transportation to the stores if they haven't been already sent.

Going forward there are starting to be thoughts/talks on issues in obtaining enough product inventory to meet the needs of 1000+ stores. Mostly items which have an electrical component to run. Chips and circuit boards are built into almost everything and shortages could even impact supplies of things like lawn mowers. There might be other product issues but those can be resourced to here if necessary. Rechargable and high end batteries could have issues but a lot of those are made in places other then china, just not in the quantities needed. Plastic items are mostly US sourced.


Promotional merch for fathers day and the 4'th are all ordered but not yet shipped. So may could be an interesting month as its always a lot of power tools and small electronic items geared for dad. Then they will know more in a couple of months when they go to place the black friday 2020 orders which start occurring in april and may.
 
greysage

greysage

On The Level
end game said:
Brought this up in another post but I thought it might be beneficial to look at how the lack of products coming in might affect the availability of items needed or simply not needed. This map shows ship traffic around the world. What we are interested in is the traffic on the west coast since most products made in the East are landed there. Normally CNY is over and the ships are showing up after their 16 day transit. Zoom in on the Long Beach area and you'll see the scope of the shortage before us.

MarineTraffic: Global Ship Tracking Intelligence | AIS Marine Traffic

MarineTraffic Live Ships Map. Discover information and vessel positions for vessels around the world. Search the MarineTraffic ships database of more than 550000 active and decommissioned vessels. Search for popular ships globally. Find locations of ports and ships using the near Real Time ships...
www.marinetraffic.com
Click to expand...

What are we looking at in that graphic/map? Too few ships compared to normal?
 
NoDandy

NoDandy

Has No Life - Lives on TB
It is waaaay past time for the US to gear up to mfg everything we use here!!!! It will take some time, need to acquire the tooling / machinery to do so. This current mess should be a very well learned lesson to all of us.

After we get geared up and producing again great!!!! Then the next set of globalists that start yapping about outsourcing, should be promptly hung from tall trees !!!!

:ld:
 
T

Thinwater

Firearms Manufacturer
NoDandy said:
It is waaaay past time for the US to gear up to mfg everything we use here!!!! It will take some time, need to acquire the tooling / machinery to do so. This current mess should be a very well learned lesson to all of us.

After we get geared up and producing again great!!!! Then the next set of globalists that start yapping about outsourcing, should be promptly hung from tall trees !!!!

:ld:
Click to expand...
Many machine tools are made in Taiwan and Korea now and the very best in Japan, most molds are sourced from China, and Chinese components are used in the electronics of most all factory machinery regardless of where the rest of it is made.

Doosan is made in SK, they make CNC machine centers Bobcat brand tractors and large construction equipment. Toyoda CNC machines are made in Japan and Taiwan. Haas CNC machines are made in the USA, Most better lathes are Japanese. There are very few people that can program CNC machine centers who are not already employed doing so. I do it for several companies who cant afford a full time programmer. It will be very hard to acquire the machines, set them up and get production going here, especially if investors don't see it being needed in the long term.
 
NoDandy

NoDandy

Has No Life - Lives on TB
Thinwater said:
Many machine tools are made in Taiwan and Korea now and the very best in Japan, most molds are sourced from China, and Chinese components are used in the electronics of most all factory machinery regardless of where the rest of it is made.

Doosan is made in SK, they make CNC machine centers Bobcat brand tractors and large construction equipment. Toyoda CNC machines are made in Japan and Taiwan. Haas CNC machines are made in the USA, Most better lathes are Japanese. There are very few people that can program CNC machine centers who are not already employed doing so. I do it for several companies who cant afford a full time programmer. It will be very hard to acquire the machines, set them up and get production going here, especially if investors don't see it being needed in the long term.
Click to expand...

I understand it will not be easy, and there will be difficulties to overcome !! But, WE MUST MAKE THE EFFORT, and keep going until we succeed !!!!
 
O

Ogre

Veteran Member
The site shows all types of marine vessels, use the filter on the left to narrow it down to cargo ships (or whatever type you want).
 
20Gauge

20Gauge

TB Fanatic
Hfcomms said:
I’ve been more concerned about supply chain issues here than I have been about the virus. The virus itself may or may not be bad here. The lack of goods which we import from China and lack of raw materials from China we use to manufacture will impact us all sharply. Americans are not used to empty store shelves like so many places around the world. When that panic of lack of goods takes place the reaction here will eclipse the rest of the world. Time is running out and you better have what you need.
Click to expand...
Actually those of us who shop at Walmart the last few years are kind of used to empty shelves as they have done a crappy job of keeping supplied after their last overhaul of the supply chain.

LOL
 
colonel holman

colonel holman

Veteran Member
NoDandy said:
It is waaaay past time for the US to gear up to mfg everything we use here!!!! It will take some time, need to acquire the tooling / machinery to do so. This current mess should be a very well learned lesson to all of us.

After we get geared up and producing again great!!!! Then the next set of globalists that start yapping about outsourcing, should be promptly hung from tall trees !!!!

:ld:
Click to expand...
This could be just what we need here in US to recognize how far backward we have fallen in mfg and self-sufficiency
 
Bubble Head

Bubble Head

Has No Life - Lives on TB
I am with you on this one Colonel Holman. A good time to look at our ability to take care of ourselves. After Japan attacked Pearl Harbor in December 1941 we were producing ships within 60 days. We became the largest aircraft producer in the world within 90 days. Now we wonder how are we going to wipe our bottom side without China. I am looking at this aspect as being as real positive assessment.
 
Kathy in FL

Kathy in FL

Administrator
_______________
twobarkingdogs said:
So I posted the below on a thread in the BS back on 2/13. It could have been posted anywhere but I put in the econ thread from there. Background is I retired 2 years ago from a large retailer. Several current employees one of whom is a higher ups has a BOL/vacation home in my AO so I keep up with the going on's.

Anyway from 2/13

tbd

The spring selling season is almost upon us and there should be no identified shortages in goods. This is mostly due to timing as overseas manufactured spring oriented goods were produced last fall and in transit to the US over the last couple of months. US/Can/Mex manufactured goods are sitting in warehouses awaiting transportation to the stores if they haven't been already sent.

Going forward there are starting to be thoughts/talks on issues in obtaining enough product inventory to meet the needs of 1000+ stores. Mostly items which have an electrical component to run. Chips and circuit boards are built into almost everything and shortages could even impact supplies of things like lawn mowers. There might be other product issues but those can be resourced to here if necessary. Rechargable and high end batteries could have issues but a lot of those are made in places other then china, just not in the quantities needed. Plastic items are mostly US sourced.


Promotional merch for fathers day and the 4'th are all ordered but not yet shipped. So may could be an interesting month as its always a lot of power tools and small electronic items geared for dad. Then they will know more in a couple of months when they go to place the black friday 2020 orders which start occurring in april and may.
Click to expand...

Thanks. I missed this the first time you posted it.

Due to our businesses we have contacts telling us basically the same sort of thing. It isn't "now" that is the issue, it is later this year that may or may not be a problem. Also, China hasn't got the markets cornered like they used to. A lot of manufacturing has spread out into other parts of Asia. That said, perception and "feeeelings" are half the problem. Something doesn't have to be true to have it affect a market as if it were. It is like the stock market, panic is the biggest enemy but people get pissed off when you tell them that because by gawd they'll panic if and when they feel like it and to hell with the consequences.
 
Zagdid

Zagdid

Veteran Member
Thinwater said:
especially if investors don't see it being needed in the long term.
Click to expand...
That is the logic that will hurt any progress. Warehouses have gone up all over the place. Factories are only old buildings. Nobody is going to invest a dime to build anything that might become obsolete in a few months. They are taking $60M dollar hits and annual flat growth over any proactive responses. Simply put, they rather lose money than invest in America.
 
Gitche Gumee Kid

Gitche Gumee Kid

Veteran Member
NoDandy said:
It is waaaay past time for the US to gear up to mfg everything we use here!!!! It will take some time, need to acquire the tooling / machinery to do so. This current mess should be a very well learned lesson to all of us.

After we get geared up and producing again great!!!! Then the next set of globalists that start yapping about outsourcing, should be promptly hung from tall trees !!!!

:ld:
Click to expand...

We are obviously very vulnerable in any confrontation with the Chi Comms
GGK :ld:
 
Freeholder

Freeholder

This too shall pass.
I personally would be reluctant to make huge investments in an economy which seems to be hell-bent on turning Communist within the next few election cycles. Any CEO with foresight probably feels the same way. Well, unless they expected wages here to drop to the levels of communist China....

Kathleen
 
D

Dozdoats

On TB every waking moment
by gawd they'll panic if and when they feel like it and to hell with the consequences

Panic is only a rational thing the way we do it at TB2K :D
 
Grouchy Granny

Grouchy Granny

Deceased
Financial advisor sent me some info earlier this year on investing in China. Told him NWIH because I didn't trust them as far as I could throw them (not too far anymore).
 
AlaskaSue

AlaskaSue

North to the Future
Thank you for that link, End Game. Alaska gets so much cargo via shipping that I'm pretty astonished to see so few of those vessels in the vicinity. Lots of fishing boats and some tankers as expected - but very very few cargo ships; maybe it's a matter of weekday or something. I'll add this to my favorites and keep an eye on it - quite an eye-opener around the country already.

On a related note....I hear a LOT (and I do mean a lot) more mentions in the past two weeks about 'getting ready' in casual conversations at the gym, post office, restaurants, church, etc. I'm not necessarily directly involved in the conversations....but I can hear pretty well and it's definitely a change in tone - completely due to the virus. As my dear Daddy always said, "Caution is the watchword!" and it sounds like that's what folks here are feeling. While it sounds like I'm out a lot, I really have pretty much augured in at home as much as I can. :)
 
jed turtle

jed turtle

a brother in the Lord
NoDandy said:
It is waaaay past time for the US to gear up to mfg everything we use here!!!! It will take some time, need to acquire the tooling / machinery to do so. This current mess should be a very well learned lesson to all of us.

After we get geared up and producing again great!!!! Then the next set of globalists that start yapping about outsourcing, should be promptly hung from tall trees !!!!

:ld:
Click to expand...
It would be appropriate to discuss now what we are going to do about the current crop of globalists here that sold America down the river...
 
et2

et2

Has No Life - Lives on TB
Thinwater said:
Many machine tools are made in Taiwan and Korea now and the very best in Japan, most molds are sourced from China, and Chinese components are used in the electronics of most all factory machinery regardless of where the rest of it is made.

Doosan is made in SK, they make CNC machine centers Bobcat brand tractors and large construction equipment. Toyoda CNC machines are made in Japan and Taiwan. Haas CNC machines are made in the USA, Most better lathes are Japanese. There are very few people that can program CNC machine centers who are not already employed doing so. I do it for several companies who cant afford a full time programmer. It will be very hard to acquire the machines, set them up and get production going here, especially if investors don't see it being needed in the long term.
Click to expand...

There's a lot of used machines sitting on moth balls around here. Mazak still makes their product here, albeit they're Japanese. I've heard GM has warehouses full of machinery not used anymore. It surprise you how many machine tools I see in my business that are still running after 30 years.

It would mean bringing back the older workforce to get them running. You're right about the programming. Machine operators today are more button pushers than years past. Good old manual machines, but you can only do so much with them, not to mention the talent to run them.

Heck, many shop guys I know can't read a micrometer if it wasn't digital. I know shop owners begging their older guys ready for retirement to stay working for them. Just spoke to one today 80 years old.
 
L.A.B.

L.A.B.

Goodness before greatness.
Millwright said:
Where is L.A.B.?

Some insight to actual container traffic would tell a lot.

@L.A.B.
Click to expand...

Finding this thread almost a full three months later...

Well, volume this year is said to be down almost 25%. That would be close to normal cargo traffic for say 2012’ish.

Work opportunities for port workers on average are down about 10-15% depending on skill levels and seniority or company steady position.

The Economy to include timing of War that will influence Llyods of Londons shipping cost, as guestimated from one working guys perspective.

Since the viral reaction of China to POTUS DJT’s Trade Deal, I can see tensions (((accumulating))) to a next level point as U.S. companies return manufacturing back to CONUS and look to tap into other manufacturing nations. Taiwan will become ‘more contested’ than ever. An international incident with a Taiwanese Shipping Company Container Vessel in the contested South China Sea Lanes may up the brinksmanship of Super Power Conflict.

I base this on current internationalist trends to stand down national economies with the obvious goal of one world banking-one world logistics-one world control.

For the reasons above, I see South China Sea regional conflict to include China vs. Taiwan over China either detaining a commercial container shipping vessel, or something escalating over same running into a sub-surface electronic buoyed mine.

Baby steps to the South China Sea War.

West Coast Vigilance from here on out!

That’s all at this time from the starboard side of the Portside Coast.
 
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M

mikeabn

Finally not a lurker!
Hfcomms said:
Agreed. Trump was right and he has started to turn things around but you can’t turn a ship on a dime. I wish we had another 10 years before things started to turn bad.
Click to expand...
And not only do we need the factories and tools, but we'll need highly trained people to operate them.
 
L.A.B.

L.A.B.

Goodness before greatness.
mikeabn said:
And not only do we need the factories and tools, but we'll need highly trained people to operate them.
Click to expand...

And that alone will take 1/2 a generation if we’re lucky, as every mother and father looked down upon engineering / production skills over their child prodigies supernatural ability to push a mouse and click on screen icons.

I get it. I really do.
 
S

Squid

Veteran Member
Yes the capacity and capability need built back up, but the it doesn’t happen now so can’t happen is a little weak.

The globalists will use that logic to fight the transition, then they will use the capabilities don’t exist so we must H1b them in as a secondary status quo fight.

The government has been using traitors in Congress and administrations from both parties to gut manufacturing in the US, seems its time for the government to start working in reverse.
 
D

Dozdoats

On TB every waking moment
Yup. We should have started all this change stuff a generation ago. But it takes privation to make people change in major ways. We have a heaping helping of privation on the way.
 
mzkitty

mzkitty

I give up.
Squid said:
Yes the capacity and capability need built back up, but the it doesn’t happen now so can’t happen is a little weak.

The globalists will use that logic to fight the transition, then they will use the capabilities don’t exist so we must H1b them in as a secondary status quo fight.

The government has been using traitors in Congress and administrations from both parties to gut manufacturing in the US, seems its time for the government to start working in reverse.
Click to expand...

Elon reportedly is going to build a new Tesla complex in Austin:

www.dallasnews.com

Tesla eyeing Austin, Tulsa for next electric vehicle assembly plant, according to reports

Could Tesla build its new Cybertruck in Texas?
www.dallasnews.com
 
S

Squid

Veteran Member
mzkitty said:
Elon reportedly is going to build a new Tesla complex in Austin:

www.dallasnews.com

Tesla eyeing Austin, Tulsa for next electric vehicle assembly plant, according to reports

Could Tesla build its new Cybertruck in Texas?
www.dallasnews.com
Click to expand...
Isn’t that like being a little pregnant, go to Texas where all the freedom and better government is compared to Ca but go to the Progressive leftist enclave of Austin so all the relocating cali leftists socialists will feel at home. Why they can add leftist socialist votes to Texas to turn the state to Demo’s....

Not sure if this is a win for the country. When leftists abandon cities and states they turned unlivable they never accept their leftist policies as being responsible so they drag along their destructive ideals like a bad case of the clap to spread around.
 
mzkitty

mzkitty

I give up.
Squid said:
Isn’t that like being a little pregnant, go to Texas where all the freedom and better government is compared to Ca but go to the Progressive leftist enclave of Austin so all the relocating cali leftists socialists will feel at home. Why they can add leftist socialist votes to Texas to turn the state to Demo’s....

Not sure if this is a win for the country. When leftists abandon cities and states they turned unlivable they never accept their leftist policies as being responsible so they drag along their destructive ideals like a bad case of the clap to spread around.
Click to expand...

Ooh, I don't know. I think Dennis is the Austin expert by now.
 
Bps1691

Bps1691

Veteran Member
20Gauge said:
Apparently.....

Corporations are always after the newest and greatest and it seems to have really screwed their supply chain the last few years.
Click to expand...
Ol' rule in computer systems and IT in general

… the boss man takes a trip to a conference and someone he respects tell's him about the latest greatest HIS company spooled up

… tells boss man just how antiquated his IT systems are

Boss man doesn't know shit from shinola about it

… but comes storming back and demands they move to the latest greatest

IT tries to tell him ours is better and works great

… boss man fires IT leadership and brings in someone new

Who proceeds to replace the shit that did work just fine (and the people)

… with his friends, cronies and vendors who slap something in that screws up everything

SHTF at the company as problems blow up all over the place, but by then the Boss man who did the deed

… has moved on to another company for bigger bucks because he put in the super duper system that doesn't work
 
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