Early exit polling data looks good for Kerry

A

Aleph Null

Membership Revoked
From Drudge:
Election 2004 has been rocked with first wave of exit polls which show
Kerry competitive in key states, campaign and media sources tell
DRUDGE.... National Election Pool -- representing six major news
organization -- shows Kerry in striking distance -- with small lead --
in Florida and Ohio..
Click to expand...
From an election poll tracking site I frequent. Please note the caveats about this being unreliable!
Here's the 2pm exit polling data for you.

But first! This caveat. In 2000 early exit polling had Bush winning the popular vote. Gore won. In 2002, early exit polling was very inaccurate in determining who won the various races. Also, exit polling does not include absentee balloting and advanced voting. With that in mind...

State: Bush - Kerry
Arizona: 55 - 45
Colorado: 51 - 48
Loiusiana: 57 - 42
Pennsylvania: 40 - 60
Ohio: 48 - 52
Florida: 48 - 51
Michigan: 47 - 51
New Mexico: 48 - 50
Minnesota: 40 - 58
Wisconsin: 43 - 52
Iowa: 49 - 49
New Hampshire: 41 - 57

These numbers are VERY UNRELIABLE, but if they were true Kerry would be the next president of the United States.
Click to expand...

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N

night driver

ESFP adrift in INTJ sea
Well, if he DOES win, we'll muddle through.

No matter WHO wins, we'll muddle through....

But if Kerry wins I will GUARANTEE you that the next 3 gun shows in ANY area will show more sales in 3 weekends than during ALL of Bush's Presidency......
 
A.T.Hagan

A.T.Hagan

Inactive
Muddling through is the only choice we have.

I still think Bush will carry it.

Not that I want him.

.....Alan.
 
S

Solaris

Contributing Member
[BRKG-Election] 14:46 ET Early exit polls show Kerry advance

11/2/2004
Early exit polls predict Kerry landslide, though early polls not considered reliable
Filed under: General— site admin @ 3:15 pm Email This
Kerry seen as presidential victor in early exit polls

Check back on this story throughout the day; it will be updated from check-ins from both parties and with new polls as they become available.

By John Byrne | RAW STORY Editor

Sen. John Kerry looks to make a clean victory of the electoral college, according to exit polls conducted by a consortium of six media organizations (the National Election Pool) that RAW STORY has acquired and confirmed with myriad sources.

Exit polls typically favor Republicans in early voting, as Republicans by-and-large tend to vote earlier in the day. This may spell bad news for President Bush, though it’s also important to consider that early polls are routinely unreliable.

The polls put Kerry ahead in Florida, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Minnesota and Wisconsin. In the polls received, Bush leads in Colorado, Louisiana and Arizona. Iowa is a tie.

Here are the first exit polls, confirmed from sources in both parties, as leaked to RAW STORY. The first number is the percentage of voters supporting Kerry, the second are those supporting Bush.

AZ 45-55
CO 48-51
LA 42-57
MI 51-48
WI 52-48
PA 60-40
OH 52-48
FL 51-48

A second round of polls, conducted by the Kerry campaign, show similar trends, also suggesting the senator will will New Mexico and New Hampshire.

MICH 51-47
NM 50-48
MINN 58-40
WISC 52-43
IOWA 49-49
NH 57-41

http://www.bluelemur.com/index.php?p=386
 
R

routerheads

Member
night driver said:
But if Kerry wins I will GUARANTEE you that the next 3 gun shows in ANY area will show more sales in 3 weekends than during ALL of Bush's Presidency......
Click to expand...

Sounds like economic growth to me.... ;)
 
O

old bear

Deceased
As much as I don't like Kerry, Bush being re-elected scares me even more. Either way this country will have to try to survive for another 4 years.
 
F

Flint

Inactive
Sounds like we could get better accuracy flipping a coin. I only hope we don't end up with another virtual tie.

Lines were very long for me this morning, but moved fairly quickly. Others where I work have gone to vote at various times during the day, and report lines everywhere, all day long. Perhaps this election will slow the trend towards lower and lower turnout?
 
S

Solaris

Contributing Member
Drudgereport

Election 2004 has been rocked with first wave of morning exit polls which show Kerry competitive in key states, campaign and media sources tell DRUDGE.... National Election Pool -- representing six major news organization -- shows Kerry in striking distance -- with small lead -- in Florida and Ohio.. MORE...
 
A

Aleph Null

Membership Revoked
I just saw that Drudge added this note:
But early sample was based on a 59- 41 women to men ratio...
Click to expand...
Uh.. that's a pretty important datum for them not to have mentioned from the start! Better news for the Reps (women are more liberal than men.)

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R

Rickster6

Contributing Member
As much as I am thrilled by these early numbers, I think that it is wrong for these exit poll numbers being made public when the poling places will be open for at least another 8 - 9 hours on the West Coast. Why can't the media wait until 11 - 12 PM on the East Coast before releasing results or at least wait until the polls close in a particular state before releasing the polling information.

Media outlets should be reporting news, not trying to influence the outcome of the election.

Rick.
 
fairbanksb

fairbanksb

Freedom Isn't Free
Aleph Null said:
I just saw that Drudge added this note:

Uh.. that's a pretty important datum for them not to have mentioned from the start! Better news for the Reps (women are more liberal than men.)

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Click to expand...

Yep, pretty important to be leaving out. I agree with Rickster also. The media should just shut up until the polls close.
 
R

routerheads

Member
I too am thrilled with the early data, but wish it would not be released. It could have an impact on the final tally. The media should keep this to themselves, and be ready to use it to predict the winner as soon as the polls close (unless they learned their lesson in 2000)
 
A

Aleph Null

Membership Revoked
I think that in the past the media did used to shut up until the polls closed. The problem is that there are many "alternative media" who only care about getting attention and "scoops" -- like Drudge. They will never agree to hold off on anything that would get them eyeballs.

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N

NoCarrier

Membership Revoked
Aleph Null said:
I think that in the past the media did used to shut up until the polls closed. The problem is that there are many "alternative media" who only care about getting attention and "scoops" -- like Drudge. They will never agree to hold off on anything that would get them eyeballs.

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Click to expand...

I think that the "drudge" public is pretty limited.
 
Shock Wave Rider

Shock Wave Rider

Inactive
Considering this is todays news it should be on the main board. People will be looking on the main board, not the Election Day 2004.
 
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fairbanksb

fairbanksb

Freedom Isn't Free
Well Drudge is now showing some of the Senate races and now I definetly no something isn't right. They are showing Castor ahead of Martinez. The must not be doing exit polling in Miami/Dade. No way do I believe Castor is going to win.
 
W

wrs

Membership Revoked
See the whole idea that your vote doesn't matter is wrong

In fact, it doesn't matter in the overall scheme of things but the idea that the media reporting a winner will keep voters from voting in the west is just nonsense. They claimed that was why Dole was slaughtered in California but thats just not the case, Dole sucked, he was an old codger without a base. The republicans were total doofuses to run him and they got what they deserved, lousy turnout..............
 
ainitfunny

ainitfunny

Saved, to glorify God.
Well, I know that a team that is losing because they won't change out a LOUSY PITCHER THAT THEY LOVE can reasonably expect to lose the game if they let their loyalty obscure a critical evaluation of his performance!!
 
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