WAR Main Persian Gulf Trouble thread
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northern watch
TB Fanatic
Britain's navy to accompany UK-flagged ships through Strait of Hormuz
January 4, 2020 / 3:11 PM / a few seconds ago
LONDON (Reuters) - Britain’s navy will accompany UK-flagged ships through the Strait of Hormuz to provide protection after the killing of Iranian military commander Qassem Soleimani by U.S. forces.
Defence minister Ben Wallace said he had ordered the warships HMS Montrose and HMS Defender to prepare to return to escort duties for all ships sailing under a British merchant flag.
“The government will take all necessary steps to protect our ships and citizens at this time,” he said.
Reporting by Kate Holton; Editing by Kevin Liffey
Britain's navy to accompany UK-flagged ships through Strait of Hormuz
January 4, 2020 / 3:11 PM / a few seconds ago
LONDON (Reuters) - Britain’s navy will accompany UK-flagged ships through the Strait of Hormuz to provide protection after the killing of Iranian military commander Qassem Soleimani by U.S. forces.
Defence minister Ben Wallace said he had ordered the warships HMS Montrose and HMS Defender to prepare to return to escort duties for all ships sailing under a British merchant flag.
“The government will take all necessary steps to protect our ships and citizens at this time,” he said.
Reporting by Kate Holton; Editing by Kevin Liffey
Britain's navy to accompany UK-flagged ships through Strait of Hormuz
northern watch
TB Fanatic
Jonathan Beale @bealejonathan 1h1 hour ago
BREAK - DefSec@BWallaceMP says @RoyalNavy will be resuming its escort of merchant vessels through Strait of Hormuz - with increased tensions with #Iran. @HMS_MONTROSE and @HMSDefender had stopped providing escorts weeks ago but will now resume
BREAK - DefSec
northern watch
TB Fanatic
Gregor Peter @L0gg0l 1h1 hour ago
Most expect Iran's retaliation to happen in the Persian Gulf region (missile / navy force). But one cannot exclude of a "symmetric" response (high profile assassination of U.S official).
Most expect Iran's retaliation to happen in the Persian Gulf region (missile / navy force). But one cannot exclude of a "symmetric" response (high profile assassination of U.S official).
Zagdid
Veteran Member
I expect the closure of the Strait of Hormuz (20% of world oil supply) and disruption in both Saudi and Iraqi production/export. (for starters)
northern watch
TB Fanatic
US, Iran on precipice of unpredictable Middle East war
DW
Chase Winter
January 3 2020
The US killing of Iran's Qassem Soleimani could be seen as an act of war with untold consequences. The question is how, when and where Iran will strike back — and whether that triggers a wider conflagration.
The US killing of Major General Qassem Soleimani, the commander of the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps' elite Quds Force, near Baghdad's airport is a seminal event that brings Washington and Tehran to the brink of a major conflict across the Middle East.
A spymaster, military operative and diplomat wrapped into one, he was one of the Islamic Republic's most powerful men — and according to one poll, the most popular public figure — responsible for regional policy in Iraq, Lebanon, Syria, Yemen and beyond.
His killing creates further impetus for a vicious circle following a series of escalations since the US withdrew from the Iran nuclear deal in 2018, imposed crushing sanctions and declared economic warfare under its "maximum pressure" campaign without providing a diplomatic off-ramp to deescalate.
Viewed from Tehran, Soleimani's heroic "martyrdom" is an act of war building on other "criminal" acts committed by the United States.
"This doesn't mean war, it will not lead to war, and it doesn't risk war. None of that. It is war," Andrew Exum, a former US deputy assistant secretary of defense for Middle East policy, wrote in The Atlantic.
Hamidreza Azizi, an assistant professor at Shahid Beheshti University in Tehran, said that if Iran doesn't act on threats to retaliate it will lose face both domestically and externally.
"The Islamic Republic has produced a narrative of strength inside the country and the weakness of enemies. This will be broken if Iran stands idly," he said. "Not responding will send a message to US and Israel to double down on targeting Iranian interests. Iran is facing a very hard choice."
It's unclear how, when and where Iran will retaliate, but it will be forced to respond directly or indirectly at a time and place of its choosing, raising questions as to whether that will pull the US deeper into a military conflict. Any reprisal against the US military, interests or allies will be viewed by Washington as a reason to escalate further after the Trump administration justified the killing as an act of "deterrence" and preemption against alleged attacks being planned against the United States.
"The so-called 'rules of engagement' have been broken. This means that increasingly preemptive attacks will replace the condition of deterrence which offered a measure of stability," said Max Abrahms, a professor at Northeastern University and fellow at the Quincy Institute think tank.
"The killing of Soleimani will definitely not deter the Revolutionary Guard," he said. "We should expect a variety of asymmetric responses from Iran."
Activating the 'axis of resistance'
Last year, Iran threatened "to set fire to the interests of America and its allies" in the region if it were attacked. It has already proven willing to test the United States and regional states, raiding ships in the Persian Gulf, allegedly attacking SaudiAramco oil facilities with missiles and drones and shooting down a US drone. But the Islamic Republic also knows that a full-blown war with the US could threaten the regime's survival.
Iran has ample regional allies and proxies under its "axis of resistance" to wage asymmetric warfare and a ballistic missile capability to impose costs on the United States in Iraq, Israel, Syria, Lebanon, Yemen, Afghanistan and the Persian Gulf. They could also strike further afield, attacking American embassies across the globe or activate operatives in the United States or elsewhere.
Blowback in Iraq
The easiest and least risky place for Iran to respond would be in Iraq, where the Revolutionary Guard has developed a web of Iranian-backed proxy forces and political allies that makes it a kingmaker in the country's politics.
It is also in Iraq, where the US drone strike killed eight others and Abu Mahdi al-Muhandis, the deputy leader of the state-sanctioned Popular Mobilization Units formed to battle the "Islamic State," that the United States is particularly vulnerable and finds itself in an increasingly untenable position.
One consequence for the United States is that Iran's allies in the Iraqi parliament and government have been boosted by US "violations of sovereignty" to hasten calls for some 5,000 US troops to be evicted from the country.
Such an event would effectively cede to Tehran primacy in Iraq at a time when the country is politically unstable following nearly three months of deadly anti-government protests, which have also been directed at Iranian meddling. Meanwhile, US forces and diplomats remain vulnerable to attack from pro-Iranian militia that are officially part of the Iraqi security forces.
Multiple pressure points
If it chose to ratchet up escalation in a wider war scenario, Iran could strike further a field by directly or indirectly targeting US military assets in the Persian Gulf, or it could bring the world economy to a standstill by blocking oil running through the Strait of Hormuz to global markets. The United Arab Emirates and Saudi Arabia could also find themselves in the crosshairs in a proxy response or larger conflagration.
US ally Israel, which has carried out hundreds of attacks on Syrian government forces and pro-Iran groups in Syria in a shadow war against its Iranian nemesis, is bracing itself for fallout from Iran-backed militants in Gaza, Hezbollah in Lebanon and Iran-linked forces in Syria.
Fog of war
Iran's irregular tactics across the region, known as "forward defense," are designed to surprise and stretch enemy resources in a bid to keep fighting away from its soil.
"In some respects it follows an old analogy of it being easier to fight a bear than a dozen rattlesnakes, some hidden from view," retired US Marine Corps Lieutenant General Paul Van Riper told DW last year, summarizing some of the dynamics of a potential conflict.
"Few wars turn out to be quick and decisive," he said. "The real problem is that every war has its own dynamics and the ability of any government to forecast with certainty how things will turn out is nil."
US, Iran on precipice of unpredictable Middle East war | DW | 03.01.2020
DW
Chase Winter
January 3 2020
The US killing of Iran's Qassem Soleimani could be seen as an act of war with untold consequences. The question is how, when and where Iran will strike back — and whether that triggers a wider conflagration.
The US killing of Major General Qassem Soleimani, the commander of the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps' elite Quds Force, near Baghdad's airport is a seminal event that brings Washington and Tehran to the brink of a major conflict across the Middle East.
A spymaster, military operative and diplomat wrapped into one, he was one of the Islamic Republic's most powerful men — and according to one poll, the most popular public figure — responsible for regional policy in Iraq, Lebanon, Syria, Yemen and beyond.
His killing creates further impetus for a vicious circle following a series of escalations since the US withdrew from the Iran nuclear deal in 2018, imposed crushing sanctions and declared economic warfare under its "maximum pressure" campaign without providing a diplomatic off-ramp to deescalate.
Viewed from Tehran, Soleimani's heroic "martyrdom" is an act of war building on other "criminal" acts committed by the United States.
"This doesn't mean war, it will not lead to war, and it doesn't risk war. None of that. It is war," Andrew Exum, a former US deputy assistant secretary of defense for Middle East policy, wrote in The Atlantic.
Hamidreza Azizi, an assistant professor at Shahid Beheshti University in Tehran, said that if Iran doesn't act on threats to retaliate it will lose face both domestically and externally.
"The Islamic Republic has produced a narrative of strength inside the country and the weakness of enemies. This will be broken if Iran stands idly," he said. "Not responding will send a message to US and Israel to double down on targeting Iranian interests. Iran is facing a very hard choice."
It's unclear how, when and where Iran will retaliate, but it will be forced to respond directly or indirectly at a time and place of its choosing, raising questions as to whether that will pull the US deeper into a military conflict. Any reprisal against the US military, interests or allies will be viewed by Washington as a reason to escalate further after the Trump administration justified the killing as an act of "deterrence" and preemption against alleged attacks being planned against the United States.
"The so-called 'rules of engagement' have been broken. This means that increasingly preemptive attacks will replace the condition of deterrence which offered a measure of stability," said Max Abrahms, a professor at Northeastern University and fellow at the Quincy Institute think tank.
"The killing of Soleimani will definitely not deter the Revolutionary Guard," he said. "We should expect a variety of asymmetric responses from Iran."
Activating the 'axis of resistance'
Last year, Iran threatened "to set fire to the interests of America and its allies" in the region if it were attacked. It has already proven willing to test the United States and regional states, raiding ships in the Persian Gulf, allegedly attacking SaudiAramco oil facilities with missiles and drones and shooting down a US drone. But the Islamic Republic also knows that a full-blown war with the US could threaten the regime's survival.
Iran has ample regional allies and proxies under its "axis of resistance" to wage asymmetric warfare and a ballistic missile capability to impose costs on the United States in Iraq, Israel, Syria, Lebanon, Yemen, Afghanistan and the Persian Gulf. They could also strike further afield, attacking American embassies across the globe or activate operatives in the United States or elsewhere.
Blowback in Iraq
The easiest and least risky place for Iran to respond would be in Iraq, where the Revolutionary Guard has developed a web of Iranian-backed proxy forces and political allies that makes it a kingmaker in the country's politics.
It is also in Iraq, where the US drone strike killed eight others and Abu Mahdi al-Muhandis, the deputy leader of the state-sanctioned Popular Mobilization Units formed to battle the "Islamic State," that the United States is particularly vulnerable and finds itself in an increasingly untenable position.
One consequence for the United States is that Iran's allies in the Iraqi parliament and government have been boosted by US "violations of sovereignty" to hasten calls for some 5,000 US troops to be evicted from the country.
Such an event would effectively cede to Tehran primacy in Iraq at a time when the country is politically unstable following nearly three months of deadly anti-government protests, which have also been directed at Iranian meddling. Meanwhile, US forces and diplomats remain vulnerable to attack from pro-Iranian militia that are officially part of the Iraqi security forces.
Multiple pressure points
If it chose to ratchet up escalation in a wider war scenario, Iran could strike further a field by directly or indirectly targeting US military assets in the Persian Gulf, or it could bring the world economy to a standstill by blocking oil running through the Strait of Hormuz to global markets. The United Arab Emirates and Saudi Arabia could also find themselves in the crosshairs in a proxy response or larger conflagration.
US ally Israel, which has carried out hundreds of attacks on Syrian government forces and pro-Iran groups in Syria in a shadow war against its Iranian nemesis, is bracing itself for fallout from Iran-backed militants in Gaza, Hezbollah in Lebanon and Iran-linked forces in Syria.
Fog of war
Iran's irregular tactics across the region, known as "forward defense," are designed to surprise and stretch enemy resources in a bid to keep fighting away from its soil.
"In some respects it follows an old analogy of it being easier to fight a bear than a dozen rattlesnakes, some hidden from view," retired US Marine Corps Lieutenant General Paul Van Riper told DW last year, summarizing some of the dynamics of a potential conflict.
"Few wars turn out to be quick and decisive," he said. "The real problem is that every war has its own dynamics and the ability of any government to forecast with certainty how things will turn out is nil."
US, Iran on precipice of unpredictable Middle East war | DW | 03.01.2020
jward
passin' thru
Aleph ᴼⁿ ᴴⁱᵍʰ ᴬˡᵉʳᵗ ️ א (@no_itsmyturn) Tweeted:
GRAPHIC
This is the #PMU / #Hashd Al-Sha'bi commander in Karbala who was assassinated earlier today.
#Iraq
GRAPHIC Aleph ᴼⁿ ᴴⁱᵍʰ ᴬˡᵉʳᵗ ️ א on Twitter
View: https://twitter.com/no_itsmyturn/status/1216081655997308928?s=20
GRAPHICThis is the #PMU / #Hashd Al-Sha'bi commander in Karbala who was assassinated earlier today.
#Iraq
GRAPHIC Aleph ᴼⁿ ᴴⁱᵍʰ ᴬˡᵉʳᵗ ️ א on Twitter
View: https://twitter.com/no_itsmyturn/status/1216081655997308928?s=20
coalcracker
Veteran Member
ELINT News
@ELINTNews
·
4m
#BREAKING: Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps announces the killing of senior members of the IRGC accompanying Soleimani:
1- General Hussein Jaafari Naya
2- Colonel Shahroud Muzaffari Niya
3- Major Hadi Tarmi
4-Captain Waheed Zamanian
Some lame pun possibilities here...
While killing Soleimani,
We made sure that he and his major friend Hadi bad day...
While we kicked back and smoked Waheed.
Bad, I know.
danielboon
TB Fanatic
[B]EndGameWW3[/B] Retweeted
3h3 hours ago
More
FRANCE, BRITAIN, GERMANY CONFIRM HAVE TRIGGERED IRAN NUCLEAR DEAL DISPUTE MECHANISM - JOINT STATEMENT E3 SAYS DECISION TAKEN BECAUSE IRAN IS FAILING TO RESPECT ITS COMMITMENTS TO THE NUCLEAR DEAL Follow the story live: http://bit.ly/rbgsgnup
3h3 hours ago
More
FRANCE, BRITAIN, GERMANY CONFIRM HAVE TRIGGERED IRAN NUCLEAR DEAL DISPUTE MECHANISM - JOINT STATEMENT E3 SAYS DECISION TAKEN BECAUSE IRAN IS FAILING TO RESPECT ITS COMMITMENTS TO THE NUCLEAR DEAL Follow the story live: http://bit.ly/rbgsgnup
danielboon
TB Fanatic
[B]EndGameWW3[/B] Retweeted
4h4 hours ago
More
SENIOR IRANIAN CLERIC SAYS EXPELLING BRITISH AMBASSADOR IS 'THE BEST THING THAT CAN HAPPEN TO HIM AS OTHERWISE HE COULD BE TORN TO PIECES' BY THOSE LOYAL TO SOLEIMAN
4h4 hours ago
More
SENIOR IRANIAN CLERIC SAYS EXPELLING BRITISH AMBASSADOR IS 'THE BEST THING THAT CAN HAPPEN TO HIM AS OTHERWISE HE COULD BE TORN TO PIECES' BY THOSE LOYAL TO SOLEIMAN
danielboon
TB Fanatic
[B]Russian Market[/B]Verified account @[B]russian_market[/B]
FollowFollow @russian_market
More
IRAN CANCELS TRIP TO WEF, NO MEETING WITH TRUMP
The World Economic Forum
FollowFollow @russian_market
More
IRAN CANCELS TRIP TO WEF, NO MEETING WITH TRUMP
The World Economic Forum
northern watch
TB Fanatic
Global: MilitaryInfo @Global_Mil_Info now1 minute ago
The United States on Tuesday warned of threats to commercial vessels in and around the Persian Gulf in the wake of its confrontation with#Iran - NYT
Global: MilitaryInfo @Global_Mil_Info 4m4 minutes ago
Global: MilitaryInfo Retweeted Global: MilitaryInfo
It said ships contacted by Iranian forces should identify themselves and say that they are proceeding in accordance with international law. It advised ships to refuse to allow Iranian forces to board but not to forcibly resist them, and to immediately contact the US Fifth Fleet.
The United States on Tuesday warned of threats to commercial vessels in and around the Persian Gulf in the wake of its confrontation with
Global: MilitaryInfo @Global_Mil_Info 4m4 minutes ago
Global: MilitaryInfo Retweeted Global: MilitaryInfo
It said ships contacted by Iranian forces should identify themselves and say that they are proceeding in accordance with international law. It advised ships to refuse to allow Iranian forces to board but not to forcibly resist them, and to immediately contact the US Fifth Fleet.
danielboon
TB Fanatic
[B]ELINT News[/B] Retweeted
57m57 minutes ago
More
#NEW: Iran warns of a “serious and strong response” to Europe’s move toward possible sanctions - AP
57m57 minutes ago
More
danielboon
TB Fanatic
[B]ELINT News[/B] Retweeted
1h1 hour ago
More
Pro-Iranian Iraqi cleric Moqtada al-Sadr has posted an appeal on Twitter calling for a million person march against the U.S. military presence in Iraq.
Al-Sadr further appealed, “I am sure that you will prove to everyone that you will not bow to global arrogance but rather we will only bow to God.”
1h1 hour ago
More
Pro-Iranian Iraqi cleric Moqtada al-Sadr has posted an appeal on Twitter calling for a million person march against the U.S. military presence in Iraq.
Al-Sadr further appealed, “I am sure that you will prove to everyone that you will not bow to global arrogance but rather we will only bow to God.”
danielboon
TB Fanatic
[B]EndGameWW3[/B] Retweeted
20m20 minutes ago
More
Carla Babb Retweeted خلية الإعلام الأمني
Iraqi officials say Camp#taji training camp north of Baghdad was targeted with Katyusha rockets. No casualties reported
20m20 minutes ago
More
Carla Babb Retweeted خلية الإعلام الأمني
Iraqi officials say Camp
danielboon
TB Fanatic
Oops, didn't mean to hit "like" but reply! Anyway, I'm sure he'll be spreading a message of peace and understanding. Not. Keep vigilant.
I don't get it. Do they know they are going to die doing something the Khamenei wants them to do?
mzkitty
I give up.
Sounds like it.
jward
passin' thru
Lol how did i possibly miss this?!
... don't be too hard on yerself, I've certainly done worse, n still had em published!
jward
passin' thru
How's there even any room, or units, left?! 
EndGameWW3 (@EndGameWW3) Tweeted:
South Korea to deploy anti-piracy unit to the Strait of Hormuz South Korea to deploy anti-piracy unit to the Strait of Hormuz View: https://twitter.com/EndGameWW3/status/1219474763384528896?s=20
EndGameWW3 (@EndGameWW3) Tweeted:
South Korea to deploy anti-piracy unit to the Strait of Hormuz South Korea to deploy anti-piracy unit to the Strait of Hormuz View: https://twitter.com/EndGameWW3/status/1219474763384528896?s=20
jward
passin' thru
WORLD NEWS
JANUARY 20, 2020 / 9:22 PM / UPDATED AN HOUR AGO
South Korea to deploy anti-piracy unit to the Strait of Hormuz
Sangmi Cha, Josh Smith
2 MIN READ
SEOUL (Reuters) - South Korea’s military said on Tuesday it plans to expand the deployment of an anti-piracy unit now operating off the coast of Africa to the area around the Strait of Hormuz, after the United States pressed for help to guard oil tankers.
Attacks on oil tankers in the Strait of Hormuz off the coast of Iran last year prompted U.S. officials to call for allies to join a planned maritime security mission.
While South Korea will deploy its forces to the area, including into the Persian Gulf, it won’t officially be joining an international coalition of forces, the defence ministry said.
“The South Korean government decided to temporarily expand the deployment of the Cheonghae military unit in consideration of the current situation in the Middle East to ensure the safety of our citizens and free navigation of our vessels,” a ministry official told reporters.
The Cheonghae unit has been stationed in the Gulf of Aden since 2009, working to tackle piracy in partnership with African countries as well as the United States and the European Union.
The 302-strong unit operates a 4,500-ton destroyer, a Lynx anti-submarine helicopter and three speed boats, according to South Korea’s 2018 defence white paper.
The unit’s operations have included a 2011 rescue of a South Korean ship and its crew, shooting eight suspected pirates and capturing five others in the process.
The South Korean troops have also evacuated South Korean citizens from Libya and Yemen, and as of November 2018 had escorted around 18,750 South Korean and international vessels.
South Korea, the world’s fifth-largest crude oil importer and one of Iran’s major oil customers, stopped importing Iranian crude from May after waivers on U.S. sanctions against Iran ended at the start of that month.
Reporting by Josh Smith; Editing by Christian Schmollinger and Michael Perry
Posted for fair use
in.reuters.com
JANUARY 20, 2020 / 9:22 PM / UPDATED AN HOUR AGO
South Korea to deploy anti-piracy unit to the Strait of Hormuz
Sangmi Cha, Josh Smith
2 MIN READ
SEOUL (Reuters) - South Korea’s military said on Tuesday it plans to expand the deployment of an anti-piracy unit now operating off the coast of Africa to the area around the Strait of Hormuz, after the United States pressed for help to guard oil tankers.
Attacks on oil tankers in the Strait of Hormuz off the coast of Iran last year prompted U.S. officials to call for allies to join a planned maritime security mission.
While South Korea will deploy its forces to the area, including into the Persian Gulf, it won’t officially be joining an international coalition of forces, the defence ministry said.
“The South Korean government decided to temporarily expand the deployment of the Cheonghae military unit in consideration of the current situation in the Middle East to ensure the safety of our citizens and free navigation of our vessels,” a ministry official told reporters.
The Cheonghae unit has been stationed in the Gulf of Aden since 2009, working to tackle piracy in partnership with African countries as well as the United States and the European Union.
The 302-strong unit operates a 4,500-ton destroyer, a Lynx anti-submarine helicopter and three speed boats, according to South Korea’s 2018 defence white paper.
The unit’s operations have included a 2011 rescue of a South Korean ship and its crew, shooting eight suspected pirates and capturing five others in the process.
The South Korean troops have also evacuated South Korean citizens from Libya and Yemen, and as of November 2018 had escorted around 18,750 South Korean and international vessels.
South Korea, the world’s fifth-largest crude oil importer and one of Iran’s major oil customers, stopped importing Iranian crude from May after waivers on U.S. sanctions against Iran ended at the start of that month.
Reporting by Josh Smith; Editing by Christian Schmollinger and Michael Perry
Posted for fair use
Reuters | Breaking International News & Views
Find latest news from every corner of the globe at Reuters.com, your online source for breaking international news coverage.
in.reuters.com