FarmerJohn
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WSJ - Rules may say they’re bound to The Donald, but many are thinking through their options.
By KIMBERLEY A. STRASSEL
April 28, 2016
Donald Trump, fresh off his Northeast sweep, declared himself the “presumptive nominee.” He presumes too much.
For all the news of Mr. Trump’s victories and Ted Cruz’s veepmate, the essential action of this GOP contest continues to take place far from the media lights. It’s happening in towns like Harrisonburg, Va., where Republican voters will gather this weekend to pick a slate of delegates for the Cleveland convention. That’s the action that matters, and it’s not going Mr. Trump’s way.
With the media all but anointing the mogul, it’s worth a short primer on presidential nominations, why Mr. Trump is still far from claiming the title, and why (by the way) this is, in fact, democracy in action.
Start with this: The GOP is a collection of 50 state parties. Each gets a voice in choosing who the national party nominates for president. In long-standing deference to states’ rights (a concept conservatives are supposed to revere), the state parties have total control over how they pick delegates to the national convention.
Some states, like Colorado, still do this purely the old-fashioned way. Republicans meet at the precinct level, at the district level, and at the state level, and vote for delegates who will speak for them. This isn’t a “rigged” system, but representative democracy.
Other states think it useful to canvas wider views. They hold what the media call primaries, but what are technically “presidential preference polls.” (Note those words.) In many states, the results of these polls are supposed to bind “delegates” to candidates at the national convention.
Only here’s the rub: Even states with primaries still go through an independent process to elect the actual people who will serve as delegates. The Republicans at these events can still choose whomever they want. And they aren’t electing delegates who personally support Mr. Trump.
Look at Virginia. The Old Dominion held its statewide preference poll (primary) on March 1, and 35% of voters (who included independents and Democrats) preferred Mr. Trump. Some 17% preferred Mr. Cruz. On paper, the delegates are automatically apportioned based on these results.
Yet at the two district conventions so far (in Virginia’s 9th and 10th congressional districts), attendees have elected five delegates who personally support Mr. Cruz and only one who supports Mr. Trump. At the statewide convention in Harrisonburg this weekend, 4,000 attendees will choose another 13 delegates. Cruz supporters will likely dominate.
This is happening across the country, and no surprise. While some attendees at these events are “the establishment”—party officials and operatives—many more are intensely committed GOP activists. These are the people who brought you the tea party, the rebels in the U.S. House, and the cheers for government shutdown.
They are into principle and ideology—and that is Mr. Trump’s problem. Sources suggest to me that of the 950 “Trump” delegates, as many as half despise the former reality-TV star. Meaning that of the 2,472 delegates slated for Cleveland, maybe one-quarter currently want him as the nominee.
But aren’t his delegates “pledged” to vote for him on the first ballot, regardless? A vocal—and growing—faction of delegates is saying they are not. A ringleader is Curly Haugland, an unbound delegate from North Dakota, and a longtime member of the GOP’s rules committee. In an open letter in March, he argued that there was only one convention in history (1976) in which GOP delegates were “bound,” and that this requirement was rescinded in 1980. He says delegates can vote their conscience.
Is he right? What matters is that some delegates think so. Many are unhappy that their state legislatures have imposed “open primaries” that allow independents and Democrats to vote. Many view it as a bedrock constitutional principle that a party retains its right to choose its own nominee. Many are deeply troubled by Mr. Trump. Some are just ornery.
With razor-tight margins, it wouldn’t take much to upturn the convention—even if Mr. Trump does get 1,237 “pledged” delegates. All it would take is a small (potentially very small) bloc of Trump delegates to defect—or simply abstain—that first round. The outrage from Trump supporters would be huge. Then again, many delegates have concluded that outrage from one side or another is inevitable. So pick your poison.
This is why Mr. Trump’s team is now trying to craft a new Trump, one harder for the delegates to overthrow. It’s why Mr. Trump bangs on about rigged elections—to exert public pressure on delegates to stay in line. And it’s the main reason why the coming races matter: Mr. Trump wants to create a sense of inevitability that will further compel “his” delegates to stick. His early success this week in wooing unbound Pennsylvania delegates suggests the pressure may be helping.
Still, if conservative activists are anything these days, they are energized and unpredictable. They are the force to reckon with in this nomination contest. And they, more than the TV stations, are the ones to watch.
http://www.wsj.com/articles/the-agony-of-a-trump-delegate-1461884907
By KIMBERLEY A. STRASSEL
April 28, 2016
Donald Trump, fresh off his Northeast sweep, declared himself the “presumptive nominee.” He presumes too much.
For all the news of Mr. Trump’s victories and Ted Cruz’s veepmate, the essential action of this GOP contest continues to take place far from the media lights. It’s happening in towns like Harrisonburg, Va., where Republican voters will gather this weekend to pick a slate of delegates for the Cleveland convention. That’s the action that matters, and it’s not going Mr. Trump’s way.
With the media all but anointing the mogul, it’s worth a short primer on presidential nominations, why Mr. Trump is still far from claiming the title, and why (by the way) this is, in fact, democracy in action.
Start with this: The GOP is a collection of 50 state parties. Each gets a voice in choosing who the national party nominates for president. In long-standing deference to states’ rights (a concept conservatives are supposed to revere), the state parties have total control over how they pick delegates to the national convention.
Some states, like Colorado, still do this purely the old-fashioned way. Republicans meet at the precinct level, at the district level, and at the state level, and vote for delegates who will speak for them. This isn’t a “rigged” system, but representative democracy.
Other states think it useful to canvas wider views. They hold what the media call primaries, but what are technically “presidential preference polls.” (Note those words.) In many states, the results of these polls are supposed to bind “delegates” to candidates at the national convention.
Only here’s the rub: Even states with primaries still go through an independent process to elect the actual people who will serve as delegates. The Republicans at these events can still choose whomever they want. And they aren’t electing delegates who personally support Mr. Trump.
Look at Virginia. The Old Dominion held its statewide preference poll (primary) on March 1, and 35% of voters (who included independents and Democrats) preferred Mr. Trump. Some 17% preferred Mr. Cruz. On paper, the delegates are automatically apportioned based on these results.
Yet at the two district conventions so far (in Virginia’s 9th and 10th congressional districts), attendees have elected five delegates who personally support Mr. Cruz and only one who supports Mr. Trump. At the statewide convention in Harrisonburg this weekend, 4,000 attendees will choose another 13 delegates. Cruz supporters will likely dominate.
This is happening across the country, and no surprise. While some attendees at these events are “the establishment”—party officials and operatives—many more are intensely committed GOP activists. These are the people who brought you the tea party, the rebels in the U.S. House, and the cheers for government shutdown.
They are into principle and ideology—and that is Mr. Trump’s problem. Sources suggest to me that of the 950 “Trump” delegates, as many as half despise the former reality-TV star. Meaning that of the 2,472 delegates slated for Cleveland, maybe one-quarter currently want him as the nominee.
But aren’t his delegates “pledged” to vote for him on the first ballot, regardless? A vocal—and growing—faction of delegates is saying they are not. A ringleader is Curly Haugland, an unbound delegate from North Dakota, and a longtime member of the GOP’s rules committee. In an open letter in March, he argued that there was only one convention in history (1976) in which GOP delegates were “bound,” and that this requirement was rescinded in 1980. He says delegates can vote their conscience.
Is he right? What matters is that some delegates think so. Many are unhappy that their state legislatures have imposed “open primaries” that allow independents and Democrats to vote. Many view it as a bedrock constitutional principle that a party retains its right to choose its own nominee. Many are deeply troubled by Mr. Trump. Some are just ornery.
With razor-tight margins, it wouldn’t take much to upturn the convention—even if Mr. Trump does get 1,237 “pledged” delegates. All it would take is a small (potentially very small) bloc of Trump delegates to defect—or simply abstain—that first round. The outrage from Trump supporters would be huge. Then again, many delegates have concluded that outrage from one side or another is inevitable. So pick your poison.
This is why Mr. Trump’s team is now trying to craft a new Trump, one harder for the delegates to overthrow. It’s why Mr. Trump bangs on about rigged elections—to exert public pressure on delegates to stay in line. And it’s the main reason why the coming races matter: Mr. Trump wants to create a sense of inevitability that will further compel “his” delegates to stick. His early success this week in wooing unbound Pennsylvania delegates suggests the pressure may be helping.
Still, if conservative activists are anything these days, they are energized and unpredictable. They are the force to reckon with in this nomination contest. And they, more than the TV stations, are the ones to watch.
http://www.wsj.com/articles/the-agony-of-a-trump-delegate-1461884907
