EDUC Two Tsunamis are About to Hit Higher Education

MinnesotaSmith

Membership Revoked
Never forget that colleges are the breeding grounds and feed troughs for LOTS of the worst leftists. If the non-STEM majors take a big hit, not just individuals who don't get scammed into paying tuition and spending years pursuing fluff majors get saved, to some extent so does the nation.



Two Tsunamis are About to Hit Higher Education

By Andrew Gillen|January 15, 2020
HIGHER EDUCATION
Originally published in Real Clear Education


"In November, the Department of Education released post graduate earnings and debt data broken down by college program — which will have a revolutionary impact on higher education. Students (and policymakers) can now get accurate information about how much recent graduates earned by college and degree (e.g., a Bachelor’s in Physics from Ohio State University).

While the data isn’t perfect (it only includes students who received federal financial aid and so far only lists earnings one year after graduation), the data is complete enough to generate two tsunamis that will hit higher education in rapid succession.

One tsunami is enhanced accountability for the hundreds of billions of dollars federal, state, and local governments provide to colleges each year — funds that have historically flowed regardless of graduates’ labor market outcomes. To date, the only effort to hold colleges accountable for these outcomes was launched by the Obama administration. Under its Gainful Employment regulations, vocational programs that pushed students into too much debt relative to income would no longer be eligible for federal financial aid.

While the Trump administration justly terminated the regulations — for targeting for-profits while exempting most public and non-profit programs — Gainful Employment is an excellent starting point for the next iteration of accountability. Adjusting the original Gainful Employment rules to account for differences in the student cohorts as well as differences in the earnings and debt measures, we can apply what I call Gainful Employment Equivalent (GEE), to explore what a similar accountability system might look like.

Of the roughly 40,000 college programs with earnings and debt data, 64% would pass Gainful Employment Equivalent, 22% would be on probation, and 14% would fail. This means that there are about 1 million graduates each year who received federal financial aid to attend a college program that does not pass a reasonable debt-to-income test.

Consider the field of law. For every professional law school program that passes GEE, there are eight that fail. Moreover, only 14% of students graduated from programs that would pass, whereas 69% of law students graduated from programs that would fail. Why should state and federal governments continue funding these programs?
But the second tsunami bearing down on higher education will be even bigger — informed choice on the part of students and parents.

For years we’ve asked students to make one of life’s most important decisions essentially blindfolded. We’ve told them a college degree is the surest path to success but have given them little guidance on where to go to college or what major to choose once they get there. As a result, too many students leave with a mountain of debt and a credential that isn’t worth much on the labor market. The new data will help equip students — and their parents — with the information necessary to avoid these costly mistakes in several ways.

First, the data will help guide students toward non-risky majors. Potential students will know that earning a Bachelor’s degree in Nursing is likely a safe choice, as there are 100 programs that pass GEE for every program that fails.
Second, the data will help students avoid risky programs within generally non-risky fields or colleges. Of the universities in the top 5 of the US News and World report college rankings, Harvard and Yale both had one program fail, and Columbia has 10 programs that fail. Helping students avoid these financial bad apples will help all students by keeping the pressure on individual academic programs, not allowing them to coast on a college’s (or field’s) reputation.

Third, the data will help students find promising programs in risky fields. Consider a risky field such as English Language and Literature, where for every Bachelor’s program that passes there are three programs that fail or are on probation. Yet, there are diamonds in the rough to be found, since over 100 programs pass. This demonstrates the real value of program-level data.

What impact will these tsunamis have? Not every college or program will survive. But those that do will be stronger. More importantly, with objective outcomes data, higher education will move away from the current, counterproductive model that lacks accountability, and will instead be subject to healthy market forces that ensure higher education will be on a relentless evolutionary march toward progress."

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MinnesotaSmith

Membership Revoked
Basically if you are not in the STEM studies at college you are wasting your time and someones money!!

Accurate enough, although there are a FEW exceptions like accounting.

My way of terming it, is that school after HS should involve one of more of A) using hand tools in a probably non-climate-controlled environment, B) hands-on medical care (so, medical assistant fails, while registered nurse does not), or C) math-major Calculus, or it's VERY likely a waste of time or really just a hobby interest (that you read up on at night/weekends before you get married and have kids, and pick back up after the last one leaves if you're so inclined).
 

bw

Fringe Ranger
Got a nephew in underwater archeology, and so's his wife. Love the field but can't find decent work.
 

MinnesotaSmith

Membership Revoked
Got a nephew in underwater archeology, and so's his wife. Love the field but can't find decent work.

That field's a hobby for those born rich (and thus never need to earn a living, let alone worry about supporting a family). Not to mention, think there will be even as much call for that WTSHTF and for many years after? Me neither.
 

Housecarl

On TB every waking moment
That field's a hobby for those born rich (and thus never need to earn a living, let alone worry about supporting a family). Not to mention, think there will be even as much call for that WTSHTF and for many years after? Me neither.
Real world applicability would probably be with NTSB in accident investigation...
 

Magdalen

Veteran Member
To make economics the measure of all things is short-sighted. A good life can be led without financial wealth (as in that gained as a result of employment.) I would never trade my studies in the "Shit Tier" (Classics, Philosophy, Theology, Political Theory, Law, Astronomy, Music, Mathematics, Literature, etc.) for a million dollars or in a million years. I had loans (Mom and Dad were asset rich but liquid capital poor) and paid them off myself. My education was worth every penny, even if it was classical STEM rather than modernist.
 

Magdalen

Veteran Member
And by the way, I think most college education is worthless, including most STEM programs at the BA level. Even my own college has fallen to the siren song of greed and now panders to the whims of those who will pay to attend.
 

Texican

Live Free & Die Free.... God Freedom Country....
Has been this way for ages....

When I graduated in 1974 with a BSCE, the only grads making more were in Petroleum and Chemical Engineering....

Party in college or afterwards with $$$'s....

Texican....
 

MinnesotaSmith

Membership Revoked
To make economics the measure of all things is short-sighted. A good life can be led without financial wealth (as in that gained as a result of employment.) I would never trade my studies in the "Shit Tier" (Classics, Philosophy, Theology, Political Theory, Law, Astronomy, Music, Mathematics, Literature, etc.) for a million dollars or in a million years. I had loans (Mom and Dad were asset rich but liquid capital poor) and paid them off myself. My education was worth every penny, even if it was classical STEM rather than modernist.

So, why didn't you just read up on those fuzzy studies interests at the library on your own time, instead of peeing away money on tuition? BTW, Astronomy and Mathematics are STEM fields (if relatively poorly paying ones), but the rest of those you listed are not.
 
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Magdalen

Veteran Member
So, why didn't you just read up on those fuzzy studies interests at the library on your own time, instead of peeing away money on tuition? BTW, Astronomy and Mathematics are STEM fields (if relatively poorly paying ones), but the rest of those you listed are not.
There are benefits to arguing through ideas with others. One should never trust oneself to have truly understood an author (of a lastingly important text) without being challenged through conversation to articulate what they have discovered through reading. It is too easy to fool oneself into thinking one knows it all. These kinds of conversations are still a part of my life with my friends. But then again, we are Thomists (from all walks of life) who enjoy that kind of thing.

I'm quite sure you would have been pissing your own money away. I'm quite satisfied with how I spent mine.

magdalen
 

MinnesotaSmith

Membership Revoked
There are benefits to arguing through ideas with others. One should never trust oneself to have truly understood an author (of a lastingly important text) without being challenged through conversation to articulate what they have discovered through reading. It is too easy to fool oneself into thinking one knows it all. These kinds of conversations are still a part of my life with my friends. But then again, we are Thomists (from all walks of life) who enjoy that kind of thing.

I'm quite sure you would have been pissing your own money away. I'm quite satisfied with how I spent mine.

magdalen

So, you figure I could have found friends to converse with on intellectual subjects without having had to pay a college to force them into a room with me and talk to me, and you could not? You're correct on the first one, and if you say the second one is true, well, you know yourself better than anyone else here.

(BTW, I'm a M.S. Geologist, so it's not as if I can't do STEM.)
 

Magdalen

Veteran Member
Yes, MinnesotaSmith, I know that modernist STEM include Astronomy and Mathematics. I am quite sure the Astronomy and Mathematics I read would be considered only of historical value, neither pragmatic nor bankable. Did you actually bother to read to the end of my post where I mentioned that?
 

MinnesotaSmith

Membership Revoked
Yes, MinnesotaSmith, I know that modernist STEM include Astronomy and Mathematics. I am quite sure the Astronomy and Mathematics I read would be considered only of historical value, neither pragmatic nor bankable. Did you actually bother to read to the end of my post where I mentioned that?

Yes, Magdalen, I read your post. I then corrected your error of fact.
 

Magdalen

Veteran Member
One of the advantages of the college I attended was to spend time with people who had been thinking about the works we read for much longer than a bunch of raw teenagers had. Socrates and Aristotle helped the youth they taught to become better thinkers by challenging them to become articulate about their thought in ways that teenagers just aren't very good at helping one another do (in part because of the continuing development of the frontal cortex.)

And yes, my high school friends and I would sit around and engage in philosophical b*llsh*t for hours on end. I'm sure if I had moved from the very rural farmland I grew up in, I could have wandered about looking for others with whom to converse. That would have been hugely time-consuming and possibly a bit like Diogenes looking for an honest man. The college I attended provided an easily accessed source of mature thinkers. Hence my appreciation for my years in college.

You seem a very pragmatic type for whom the "Classics" might be frosting on the cake. I'm a classical Thomist for whom the "Classics" are one of the main ingredients. We both get cake, just different kinds.

I love Geology! What is it that you do, or in what area is your expertise?

magdalen
 

MinnesotaSmith

Membership Revoked
You seem a very pragmatic type for whom the "Classics" might be frosting on the cake. I'm a classical Thomist for whom the "Classics" are one of the main ingredients. We both get cake, just different kinds.

I love Geology! What is it that you do, or in what area is your expertise?

magdalen

1) I have plenty of interests in, and background in, classical subjects. (I own 4 digits of books several times over.) Understanding history, economics, demographics, philosophy, etc. all have value in grokking the world we live in; it's not just war and sociobiology/human biodiversity.

2) I'm basically a sedimentary petrologist, almost just a sed petrographer. I sit in a small laboratory trailer out on oil rigs (I'm on one right now), and figure out what drill cuttings that oil rigs produce as they drill wells are, for geology departments of oil companies.

Here is an example of a (VERY) thorough cuttings description I might generate on a sample:

SS: 40%, com speckled buff, off-whi, occ lt clr tan, v lt gy, med gy; scat lse grns, com trnsl-clr; sli fri-sli ind; vf-f gred, subrnd-subang, occ ang, mod-p spher; mod-w srtd; v-mod calc; scat-abnt vf dull elong dk gy-dull blk incls, occ vf-f dk brn incls; rare tr vf dissem glau; com grds to siltstone; tr v dull flor, sli-mod dull immed diffuse cut SLTST: 10%, pred med-lt gy, buff, rarely off whi; frm-med ind; w srtd; amor-subblky; mod-sli rgh text; tr-rare vf dull blk incls, occ sli sdy SH:50%, dk-med gy, occ lt gy; scat-com and incr grds to blkish hi-arg coal: occ blkish v dk brn; sli sft-sli frm; sli hygroscopic; pred amor, occ sli subblky; occ sli subplty; com mod-sli smth text, com sli rgh-rthy text; sli calc; occ v sli slty COAL: tr-2%,blk bitsus; pred bright macerals as thin lams ; sli fri-brittle; subblky, occ blky, occ flky; no apparent native Sulfur/pyr
 

Magdalen

Veteran Member
1) I have plenty of interests in, and background in, classical subjects. (I own 4 digits of books several times over.) Understanding history, economics, demographics, philosophy, etc. all have value in grokking the world we live in; it's not just war and sociobiology/human biodiversity.

2) I'm basically a sedimentary petrologist, almost just a sed petrographer. I sit in a small laboratory trailer out on oil rigs (I'm on one right now), and figure out what drill cuttings that oil rigs produce as they drill wells are, for geology departments of oil companies.

Here is an example of a (VERY) thorough cuttings description I might generate on a sample:

SS: 40%, com speckled buff, off-whi, occ lt clr tan, v lt gy, med gy; scat lse grns, com trnsl-clr; sli fri-sli ind; vf-f gred, subrnd-subang, occ ang, mod-p spher; mod-w srtd; v-mod calc; scat-abnt vf dull elong dk gy-dull blk incls, occ vf-f dk brn incls; rare tr vf dissem glau; com grds to siltstone; tr v dull flor, sli-mod dull immed diffuse cut SLTST: 10%, pred med-lt gy, buff, rarely off whi; frm-med ind; w srtd; amor-subblky; mod-sli rgh text; tr-rare vf dull blk incls, occ sli sdy SH:50%, dk-med gy, occ lt gy; scat-com and incr grds to blkish hi-arg coal: occ blkish v dk brn; sli sft-sli frm; sli hygroscopic; pred amor, occ sli subblky; occ sli subplty; com mod-sli smth text, com sli rgh-rthy text; sli calc; occ v sli slty COAL: tr-2%,blk bitsus; pred bright macerals as thin lams ; sli fri-brittle; subblky, occ blky, occ flky; no apparent native Sulfur/pyr

I couldn't agree with you more re: understanding as you describe in #1.

As to your cutting example, I can make a bit of it out, actually. (I enjoy puzzles of all sorts!) One of the things I have always found intriguing is how geologists can identify so many varieties of rocks by determining the mineral content and identifying various subtle qualities that most of us wouldn't know how to look for. I have only the crudest ability in that field. Still fascinating though.

What is best from all this is that you and I are examples of people who like to learn and apply what they have discovered to the very real world in which they live. That sort of interest in breadth of experience, depth of understanding, AND real work is simply not cultivated in "higher education" today (to return to the critique of higher education).

magdalen
 

Old Gray Mare

TB Fanatic
Real world applicability would probably be with NTSB in accident investigation...
You think the NTSB has money? I saw their lab years ago. There wasn't much to it. Maybe they've upgraded since then... I hope. things change. The NTSB figures out why accidents happen and suggests possible regulatory changes. Every so often a plane dose ditch in the water. I wouldn't be surprised if the insurance company does most of the heavy lifting or pays for it. Then NTSB gets to figure out why it fell out of the sky.

Maybe you're thinking FAA? They have the power to regulate not the NTSB. They also have better facilities.

Underwater salvage might be more lucrative.
 

Seeker22

Has No Life - Lives on TB
Got a nephew in underwater archeology, and so's his wife. Love the field but can't find decent work.

Have them get in tough with Graham Hancock. He and his wife Santha do underwater archaeology and have written several books.
 

john70

Veteran Member
To make economics the measure of all things is short-sighted. A good life can be led without financial wealth (as in that gained as a result of employment.) I would never trade my studies in the "Shit Tier" (Classics, Philosophy, Theology, Political Theory, Law, Astronomy, Music, Mathematics, Literature, etc.) for a million dollars or in a million years. I had loans (Mom and Dad were asset rich but liquid capital poor) and paid them off myself. My education was worth every penny, even if it was classical STEM rather than modernist.
DEAR Magdalen......I SUPPORT YOUR "RIGHT" to study anything you want
IF you pay for it..........(pay of you own school loans)
AND
DON,t expect me to support you or your kids after you get out of school
HAVE FUN.................

MOST,(ALL?) ,SMART PEOPLE LOOK at return on investment
 

Freeholder

This too shall pass.
DEAR Magdalen......I SUPPORT YOUR "RIGHT" to study anything you want
IF you pay for it..........(pay of you own school loans)
AND
DON,t expect me to support you or your kids after you get out of school
HAVE FUN.................

MOST,(ALL?) ,SMART PEOPLE LOOK at return on investment
It is smart to look at return on investment, but for some people, the best return is being able to do something they love. They are willing to live on a smaller income in order to do that. Nothing wrong either way, and living on a lower income does not necessarily mean they are going to be on welfare.

Kathleen
 

H2O

Senior Member
In my case - got my BA in Psychology (Psychology was considered an "art" not a "science"), mainly because it was a field that interested me since early in high school. Never got a loan - paid my way through with help from a small state scholarship. After school, worked in retail (within 4 years I was a store manager in a local appliance store chain, making good money for the time). Finally got a government job (defense), which required a college degree to even get considered. Have been working for my agency for 37 years now, doing interesting and valuable work, making fairly good money and having raised a family. The time in college was well spent, as, while the actual degree does not directly apply to my work, it filled a requirement for entry into the job and taught me how to do research and write (skills I DO use in my work).
 

Jimbopithecus

Deceased
I "rescued" a young geologist from the patch in West Texas to work with me in my company's aggregate lab.That probably saved his marriage as he was away from his wife and toddlers for weeks at a time. Specifically we do exploration for construction aggregates and perform QA on all of our pits' products. I went into this field after the precious metals crash of '82. So I can say that my education in geology has provided my a good living for over 40 years in a field I enjoy, but I also value the education I got in the humanities. I might add that when I graduated college it was a different learning environment than today.
 

20Gauge

TB Fanatic
Accurate enough, although there are a FEW exceptions like accounting.

My way of terming it, is that school after HS should involve one of more of A) using hand tools in a probably non-climate-controlled environment, B) hands-on medical care (so, medical assistant fails, while registered nurse does not), or C) math-major Calculus, or it's VERY likely a waste of time or really just a hobby interest (that you read up on at night/weekends before you get married and have kids, and pick back up after the last one leaves if you're so inclined).

After High School I went into factory work, ( I am that old ), I realized at the time the only way to promotion beyond a certain point was to have a College degree. It simply was the minimal standard for Management. Without it, there was no way to break into the higher wage market.

So I went to school at night while working during the day. It took me years upon years, but even with a family I finally did it. I was the very first to graduate from College in my entire family history. I choose Economics as it did interest me and it was apparent that any degree would suffice for promotion. I also did it without debt. One of the reasons it took so long.

I am aware there are those who got promoted in this world without a College degree, but it was rare and more of the exception that made the rule.

These days, the College degree is no different than the high school diploma. What a shame!
 

20Gauge

TB Fanatic
In my case - got my BA in Psychology (Psychology was considered an "art" not a "science"), mainly because it was a field that interested me since early in high school. Never got a loan - paid my way through with help from a small state scholarship. After school, worked in retail (within 4 years I was a store manager in a local appliance store chain, making good money for the time). Finally got a government job (defense), which required a college degree to even get considered. Have been working for my agency for 37 years now, doing interesting and valuable work, making fairly good money and having raised a family. The time in college was well spent, as, while the actual degree does not directly apply to my work, it filled a requirement for entry into the job and taught me how to do research and write (skills I DO use in my work).
Funny thing is that I learned those in High School. I did improve them in College. Also my reading speed.
 

Publius

TB Fanatic
I see this as being a good thing and my son is going to traide school to learn advance electrical and people wit the skills he is learning are in high demand and many of the jobs start at $50 to 60 grand and higher start pay for someone in the field for a few years.
 

Ractivist

Pride comes before the fall.....Pride month ended.
My daughter has a degree in liberal arts and is working on her masters in art therapy. I find is sad, but then again, I realized with the sheer number of snow flakes, art therapy may be up and coming... if the insurance pays for it.

They did there best to turn her into a liberal, I'm glad to report, her foundation held.
 

Melodi

Disaster Cat
On a practical level, it is very true that a degree in something like history is simply too expensive and not useful for getting a paying job.

On a cultural and societal level, to have almost no historians except a few very wealthy "toffs," is dangerous in the extreme.

The same is true of several of the other nearly "suicide majors" that have gone from being difficult and deep thinking, often involving the study of the classics both of Western and Eastern Civilizations to "easy fluff," in terms of doing as disciplines they are really very important to have a healthy society.

It might be different if high schools actually TAUGHT history and demanded students have at least an inkling of the past and what their current lives and futures are based on, but they don't; many schools both in the UK and the US simply skim over "social studies" for exam questions.

There is no room for discussion, understanding or comprehension; so we get adults who think the Revolutionary War and the War Between the States are the same conflict (and confuse their main players) and can't tell the US Constitution from the Gettysburg address.

They ask questions on social media when the House decided to impeach Trump-like "now that Trump is no longer President who is?"

This has wider applications when people just accept whatever they are told is valid (especially when it comes to the past) no need for actual learning or understanding, just look it up in wiki and not realize any potential connections at all to the present day.

And I'm sorry, while individuals and families can study some of this on their own
if you have no specialists at all than as a culture that is very dangerous.

On the other hand, given the current economic climate and set up, I too would not encourage a young person to even go to college at the current cost/loan/life bankruptcy system, unless it was to study something like Medicine or a STEM career.

It simply isn't worth it right now, sad but true, however, I think as a culture and society there will be an extremely high cost later, including the potential to destroy everything. Partly simply because people have no idea what they have or what it took to get here (I mean most people, not the folks on this board).
 

bracketquant

Veteran Member
To make economics the measure of all things is short-sighted. A good life can be led without financial wealth (as in that gained as a result of employment.) I would never trade my studies in the "Shit Tier" (Classics, Philosophy, Theology, Political Theory, Law, Astronomy, Music, Mathematics, Literature, etc.) for a million dollars or in a million years. I had loans (Mom and Dad were asset rich but liquid capital poor) and paid them off myself. My education was worth every penny, even if it was classical STEM rather than modernist.

"worth every penny"?

Are you saying you paid for your education with copper and zinc coin? My guess would have been some form of debt notes via special drawing rights.

I cannot comprehend why people work so hard in the land of academia, and don't get paid for doing that work. Rather, they appear to pay to work. It seems that there are those that are even lower than slaves, yet go through life without grasping it.
 
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