WAR 03/22 to 03/29 ***The***Winds***of***WAR

[The Flying Dutchman]

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(2)]02/22 to 02/28 ***The***WINDS***of***WAR***
http://www.timebomb2000.com/vb/showt...***of***WAR***

(3)02/29 to 03/06 ***The*** Winds*** of*** WAR***
http://www.timebomb2000.com/vb/showt...*-of***-WAR***

(4)03/07 to 03/14 ***The***Winds***of***War***
http://www.timebomb2000.com/vb/showt...***of***War***

(5)03/15 to 03/21 ***The***Winds***of***WAR***
http://www.timebomb2000.com/vb/showthread.php?401338-03-15-to-03-21-***The***Winds***of***WAR***

Iron Dome Gets Congressional Boost

Submitted by Douglas Bloomfield
Wed, 03/21/2012 - 15:23
http://www.thejewishweek.com/blogs/political_insider/iron_dome_gets_congressional_boost​

In the wake of Israel's Iron Dome anti-missile success record in knocking down Palestinian missiles and rockets fired from Gaza earlier this month and the smuggling of more power Iranian missiles into Gaza, Rep. Howard Berman (D-CA) introduced legislation to increase American funding for the advanced weapon defense system.

The legislation, which authorizes the President to provide additional funding if requested by the Israeli government, sets no dollar amount, but a formal request is expected shortly. Last year the United States provided $205 million for Iron Dome.

Cosponsoring the bill are Foreign Affairs Committee Chairman Ileana Ros-Lehtinen (R-FL), U.S. Rep. Gary Ackerman (D-NY), Ranking Member of the Middle East and South Asia Subcommittee, U.S. Rep. Steve Chabot (R-OH), the Chairman of the Middle East and South Asia Subcommittee, U.S. Rep. David Cicilline (D-RI), and U.S. Rep. Ann Marie Buerkle (R-NY).

In responding to the recent round of attacks by terrorist groups in Gaza, the first operational test for the missile interceptor "achieved some notable successes," said Mark A. Heller of Tel Aviv University's Institute for National Security Studies. "It was able to discriminate between rockets likely to land in open areas and those headed for population centers, and to refrain from wasting itself on the former while intercepting about 80 percent of the latter." The IDF has put the success rate at 90 percent.

Israeli Amb. Michael Oren has said Israel needs at least 10 more Iron Dome batteries in addition to the three currently deployed and in southern Israel and two more under construction. The goal is 16 batteries to cover all of Israel, including the Syrian and Lebanese-Hizbullah borders in the north.

Iron Dome doesn't go after every missile fired at Israel but is able to determine which are headed for populated areas and ignore those that are most likely to strike harmlessly.

Dov Raviv, an Israeli expert in missile defense, has said that without Iron Dome interceptors the only way to stop the missiles and protect the residents of southern Israel "would be to occupy Gaza or go back to Operation Cast Lead."

Iron Dome is designed to defend against missiles fired from between 2.5 and 45 miles away but reportedly is not yet able to intercept longer-range Fajr missiles, supplied and built by Iran and capable of hitting Tel Aviv from Gaza.

Despite this month's success record, Iron Dome has not been tested against a massive barrage fired from Gaza or Lebanon, as happened prior years.

"The real test will come when the number of rockets is more significant and the potential damage also increases," said an Israeli air force commander.





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[The Flying Dutchman]

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Preparing Israel for war

Thursday, 22 March 2012, 2:15 pm
Article: Neve Gordon
http://www.scoop.co.nz/stories/HL1203/S00224/preparing-israel-for-war.htm​

Recent raids on Gaza were not just about allocating more money to defense - they were also about war with Iran.

In response to the recent assassination of Zuhair al-Qaisi, the Secretary General of the Popular Resistance Committees in the Gaza Strip, along with another fighter, Palestinians fired rockets at southern Israel and the Israeli military launched air strikes at targets throughout the Strip.

Within hours, the media fanfare began. Israeli news outlets began glorifying the interception missiles by repeatedly showing images of an Iron Dome battery, often with Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu and Defense Minister Ehud Barak standing in front of the defense system. Reporters continuously emphasized the Iron Dome's high rate of success in intercepting the short-range rockets launched from Gaza towards Israel. One columnist characterized it as a "system that provides the goods, authentic Israeli brilliance, true pride", while another columnist stated that this "weekend Israel took its hat off [to salute] Iron Dome".

Initially, the government and security establishment claimed that "al-Qaisi was assassinated in order to prevent an attack that was in the final stages of preparation". Two days after Israel carried out the extra-judicial execution, however, the claim that al-Qaisi presented an imminent danger dissipated.

On March 11, Ofer Shelah reported that "even from the statements made yesterday by the Minister of Defense one got the sense that the assassination was not about direct prevention: Barak clearly stated that it is not totally clear what was being planned, from where, and whether the attack had been foiled. From this, it can be assumed that the attack was more about deterrence".

'Planned escalation'

As the days passed, several commentators revealed that the assassination had been planned well in advance and that the military had made the necessary preparations, including deployment of the Iron Dome batteries. "A Planned Escalation," read the title of one article in Yedioth Ahronoth and in the text, the analyst explained that the "IDF had prepared an ambush" for al-Qaisi. Yoav Limor, an "expert on military affairs", wrote that in essence "al-Qaisi was alive-dead for over a week, and his assassination was delayed until the prime minister completed his diplomatic campaign in Washington, and until after the Purim Holiday and the weather cleared up". Most analysts intimated that Israel knew that the assassination would lead to an escalation. And this, it almost seems, is what it wanted.

The question, of course, is why?

There are those who totally misunderstood Israel's goals. Ma'ariv's top political analyst Ben Kaspit called for an extensive attack against the Strip, portraying the residents of southern Israel as hostages of a "terrorist gang that has infested Gaza… [and] that can spray the whole south with rockets". In his view Barak had stopped the IDF at the beginning of Operation Cast Lead ostensibly for humanitarian reasons, but fortunately the operation turned out to be successful not least because in its midst "the leaders of Hamas cut their beards and went down to the tunnels". Kaspit concludes that it is now time to "complete the job". "We need to understand," he tells his readers, "that no one will clean Gaza for us… and terror, unfortunately, understands only one language."

Judy Nir Moses Shalom, the wife of the Deputy Prime Minister Silvan Shalom, is not the most sophisticated thinker either. "I hope," she wrote on her Facebook page, "that during the cabinet meeting a decision will be reached to enter Gaza and to liquidate all those responsible for the nightmare which the south is undergoing. Enough silence. The time has come to make Gaza's passive residents suffer like [Israel's southern] residents." As if this kind of beastly reaction was not enough, she also tweeted to her followers: "Have a good week. I hope that today it will be decided to demolish Gaza if the shooting does not stop. So that they will suffer too."

Most analysts wittingly or unwittingly intimated, however, that there were other reasons for initiating the current cycle of violence, and justifying a major offensive on Gaza was not one of them.

Message for Iran

The majority of reporters and columnists served as the mouthpiece for the security establishment, calling on the government to allocate more funds to buy additional Iron Domes. Or Heller from Channel Ten is a good example. He asked his audience to "imagine how this cycle would have looked without the success of three Iron Dome batteries… imagine the tanks that would have had to enter Gaza's mud… a fourth battery is on its way. What about a fifth battery? God is great and the budget is small. It is clear to everyone today that we need more and more Iron Domes." Ofer Shelah from NRG put it succinctly: "The prime minister must decide unequivocally… that Iron Dome, like other defense mechanisms, is beyond the realm of the budget debate." Another more reflective reporter pointed out that the Grad rockets “flying from the Strip serve as the best lobbyist for the defense budget".

The recent attack is, however, not only about allocating more money to the military; it is also about Iran. The media continuously drew a connection between the Islamic jihad, which launched most of the rockets against Israel, and Iran. The IDF spokesperson pointed an accusing finger towards Teheran, claiming that it is transferring weapons and money to the Islamic Jihad. A couple of days later a headline in Yisrael Hayom declared, "Iran is Behind the Jihad's Rocket Attack". Hence, another objective was to show the Israeli public that Iran, by means of a proxy, had already begun attacking Israel.

Next, a link was drawn between Iron Dome's success and the perceived Iranian threat. Ynet cited a military general who stated that the escalation is about Gaza today, "but I am not sure that this is the scenario for which I am preparing the fighters. There are threats from the north and threats from further away". A columnist noted that Iron Dome's effectiveness "helped demonstrate to everyone that the Israeli home front enjoys a relatively good defense today... Hamas, Hezbollah and Iran will have to reconsider their strategy of missile terrorism..."

Indeed, many analysts emphasized that only a handful of Israelis had been injured, but none fatally. The fighting, they accordingly claimed, produced relatively little pressure on the home front. Alon Ben David from Channel Ten summed up this perspective when he wrote: "There is no doubt that Iron Dome alongside the population's exemplary behavior prevented casualties on the Israeli side and enabled Israel to come out of this cycle - I would say - with a sense of satisfaction. Twenty-two [combatants] were killed on the other side, and another three or four civilians; we have zero losses… under these conditions we can conduct a monitored [fray] that we initiate…"

Zvi Barel from Haaretz was one of the lone critical voices, providing readers some insight into Israel's real objectives. He exposed the logic behind the Iron Dome's glorification, claiming that it helps Netanyahu "sell" the planned attack against Iran: "After Iron Dome demonstrated its 95 per cent effectiveness, there is no better proof to Israeli citizens that they will not suffer serious damage following an assault against Iran. Escalation in Gaza is good for Israel, meaning for those who support attacking Iran".

In a slightly different context and using Netanyahu's duck allegory, Haaretz's editor-in-chief Aluf Benn wrote, "what looks like a preparation for war, acts like a preparation for war, and quacks like a preparation for war, is a preparation for war, and not just a 'bluff' or a diversion tactic".





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[Housecarl]

Sorry everyone, the meat world has been beating me like a drum today....

For links see article source...
Posted for fair use.....
http://www.stratfor.com/analysis/new-protests-test-saudi-monarchys-control

New Protests Test Saudi Monarchy's Control
March 21, 2012 | 1238 GMT

Summary

STR/AFP/Getty Images

Shiite women protest Feb. 24 for self-determination

The Arabian Peninsula has not been immune to the wave of recent demonstrations in countries across the Middle East. Notably, protests have been ongoing in Saudi Arabia's Shiite-concentrated Eastern Province for more than a year. Recently, however, unrelated demonstrations began in parts of the country where such unrest is rare, including a March 19 protest by female students demanding changes in university regulations and an improved infrastructure and academic environment at the Women's College of Art campuses in Asir province and Qassim province.

Historically, the Saudi monarchy has employed a series of tactics and sophisticated religious and tribal networks of influence to shut down -- or at least maintain control over -- the relatively few demonstrations that have developed outside the Shiite-majority region. But the new, Sunni-led protests are primarily youth-driven and supported by modern tools such as the Internet -- factors that could erode the monarchy's reliable methods of dissent suppression and potentially lead to an unprecedented escalation of demonstrations.

Analysis

The protest that sparked the recent string of demonstrations in Saudi Arabia began March 7 at an all-female campus of King Khalid University in Asir province. Hundreds of students reportedly protested against discrimination and mismanagement at the university before security forces dispersed the crowd with batons, injuring dozens. The incident reportedly spurred similar gatherings by both men and women in solidarity with the King Khalid University students -- as well as in demand for better facilities -- at several other universities across Saudi Arabia, including in Riyadh. According to social media and news reports, additional demonstrations are planned for the coming weeks.

Protests are banned in Saudi Arabia, making the recent events quite anomalous. Thus far, the demonstrations outside Eastern Province have not called for political reform or involved slogans expressing grievances against the government. The demonstrations could cease to gain traction, or be satisfied with minor concessions and die out. However, small human rights protests often lead to larger demands for political change.

There are several key differences between the protests in Eastern Province and those in other parts of the country. Since February 2011, eastern Shiite demonstrators have demanded political reforms, the release of political prisoners and increased recognition of human rights. In contrast, the recent protests outside Eastern Province are Sunni-led and have called primarily for better university facilities. The demonstrators have not yet called for political reforms, which could threaten the Saudi government.
Suppression and Stability Strategies

The Saudi royals fear that a nascent reformist faction will gain traction due to the rise of political Islamists elsewhere in the Arab world. These concerns are growing at a time when the Saudi rulers are also facing upcoming challenges in the royal family succession. At this point, the demonstrations do not pose a serious threat to the stability of the monarchy, and the royals still have a number of well-established mechanisms to contain the dissent.

The monarchy maintains a tight security apparatus, which can be quickly dispatched to break up demonstrations. However, unlike other regimes, Saudi authorities avoid using brute force against protesters. Instead, to maintain their hegemony and social stability, the Saudi authorities isolate instigators from wider society (often through a series of arrests) and seek to use their entrenched influence among the Saudi tribal and religious networks to quell public dissent before it spreads.

To keep the population and local leaders happy, the monarchy provides a combination of cash handouts, subsidies and benefits. It also regularly marries into and develops relationships with nearly every tribe and province. And it cultivates varying degrees of influence in the country's ulema, or religious networks, by instilling fear of religious condemnation and arrests into both religious leaders and the general population. This nexus between local and religious leadership and the al-Saud family provides the monarchy networks that can be wielded to exert influence among a wide array of Saudi citizens. The networks also help perpetuate a norm among Saudis that public dissent, especially protests, is a taboo Western tactic and is fundamentally un-Islamic.
Cultural Shifts and Challenges

It is important to watch for signs of erosion of this norm, which is a possibility considering that the demonstrations have occurred primarily among Saudi youth, who might not be as influenced by the hierarchies of Saudi tribes and families. In addition, the youth have access to previously unavailable tools, such as the Internet, which is used by some to discuss current circumstances and continue to explore ideas even when demonstrations are shut down. The frequency and growing geographical diversity of the protests suggests the monarchy cannot rely on Saudi norms and networks to pacify dissent.

If demonstrations strengthen and become more political, authorities might decide that stronger suppression tactics, similar to those employed to manage the simmering unrest in the Eastern Province, are necessary. Indeed, tactics such as arrests, a heavier security presence, the use of rubber bullets and tear gas, and controlling the clerics through ulema networks have allowed authorities to largely contain the demonstrations and prevent them from undermining governance and the economy in the Eastern Province. If the new protests escalate, how the demonstrators respond to the government's tactics -- and whether the spirit of protest endure -- will be increasingly important to observe.

Read more: New Protests Test Saudi Monarchy's Control | Stratfor

 

[Housecarl]

Well this has gone from bad to "Ah sh..."

For links see article source.....
Posted for fair use.....
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-17470950

Troops in Mali attack presidential palace
video
21 March 2012 Last updated at 23:46 ET Help

Troops in Mali have attacked the presidential palace in the capital Bamako hours after staging a mutiny.

The renegade troops traded gunfire with soldiers loyal to the government.

The mutineers say the government is not giving them enough arms to battle a rebellion by ethnic Tuaregs.

There has been heavy gunfire in Bamako and armoured vehicles have moved in to protect the presidential palace.

Martin Vogl is in Bamako.

Read More

Mutineers in Mali palace attack
Sand and fury: Mali's Tuareg rebels
Ex-Tuareg leader in Niger arrest
In the ripples of Libya's revolution
Mali fighting 'displaces 130,000'
UN warning over Malian refugees

 

[Housecarl]

For links see article source....
Posted for fair use.....
http://www.cbc.ca/news/world/story/2012/03/21/mali-unrest-mutiny.html

Mali coup fears after military mutiny
The Associated Press
Posted: Mar 21, 2012 11:03 PM ET
Last Updated: Mar 21, 2012 11:02 PM ET
Civilians walk past burning tires lit in support of mutinying soldiers, in Bamako, Mali, on March 21. Civilians walk past burning tires lit in support of mutinying soldiers, in Bamako, Mali, on March 21. (Harouna Traore/Associated Press)

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Soldiers have stormed the state TV and radio station in Mali, as fears of a possible coup gripped the West African country in the wake of a military mutiny that spread from a garrison in the capital of Bamako to one thousands of kilometres away.

The sound of heavy weapons rang out Wednesday and trucks carrying soldiers were seen fanning out around the building housing the state broadcaster. Television screens went black across the landlocked nation for roughly seven hours, coming back a little before midnight to announce that a government statement would soon be issued.

Throughout Africa, coups usually begin with the seizing of national television, and the population was on edge. The presidential palace rushed to deny that a coup was in progress, issuing a tweet, saying: "There is no coup in Mali. There's just a mutiny."

The mutiny began Wednesday morning at a military camp in the capital, during a visit by Defence Minister Gen. Sadio Gassama. In his speech to the troops, the minister failed to address the grievances of the rank-and-file soldiers, who are angry over what they say is the government's mismanagement of a rebellion in the north of the country by Tuareg separatists.

The rebellion has claimed the lives of numerous soldiers, and those sent to fight are not given sufficient supplies, including arms and food.

Recruits started firing into the air, according to a soldier who asked not to be named because he is not authorized to speak to the press. By afternoon, soldiers had surrounded the state television station in central Bamako, and by evening, troops had started rioting at a military garrison located in the northern town of Gao.
State television goes dark

A freelance journalist from Sweden who was driving to her hotel near the TV station at around 4 p.m. local time said that trucks full of soldiers surrounded the building.

"We saw a couple of trucks, with military on them. They came and started setting up checkpoints. There were military in the streets, stopping people. People were afraid," said Katarina Hoije. "When we reached our hotel which is just in front of the TV station, there were lots of military outside, and more cars kept arriving — pickup trucks with soldiers on them."

She said that they set up two machine-guns facing the building. Soon after, TV stations throughout the capital went black. There was no signal on state radio.

The soldiers who took part in the attack said they want to pressure the government to listen to their demands, and not to overthrow the landlocked nation's democratically elected leaders. But in the capital which has weathered multiple coups, the population was rattled. Businesses closed early and office workers rushed to get home.

In Washington, U.S. State Department spokeswoman Victoria Nuland said: "The situation is currently unclear and unfolding quickly. We understand that radio and television signals are dead. There are reports of military forces surrounding the presidential palace and movement of vehicles between the palace and the military barracks."
UN chief calls for peace

UN Secretary General Ban Ki-moon called for calm and for grievances to be resolved peacefully and within the democratic process, according to UN deputy spokesman Eduardo del Buey.

In the strategic northern town of Gao, located over 3,000 kilometres from the capital, the mutiny started at sundown at a military base just outside the city. A military student who was at the base and who asked not to be named out of fear for his safety said that the young recruits started shooting in the air. They then took hostage four to five of their senior commanding officers, and sequestered them, saying they will not release them until their demands are met.

They then began going door-to-door looking for the commander of the camp, a general who is in charge of operations against the Tuaregs, said the student.

The general was nowhere to be found and by nightfall, the soldiers had broadened their search beyond the barracks to the town of Gao, located six kilometres away.

The Tuareg uprising that began in mid-January is being fuelled by arms left over from the civil war in neighbouring Libya. Tens of thousands of people have fled the north, and refugees have spilled over into four of the countries neighbouring Mali due to the uprising.

The government has not disclosed how many soldiers have been killed, but the toll has been significant. In February, military widows led a protest. In an attempt to diffuse tension, the Malian president allowed himself to be filmed meeting the widows, who publicly grilled him on his handling of the rebellion.
© The Associated Press, 2012
The Canadian Press

 

[Housecarl]

Coup in Beijing, Says Chinese Internet Rumor Mill
Started by China Connection‎, Yesterday 10:00 PM
http://www.timebomb2000.com/vb/show...p-in-Beijing-Says-Chinese-Internet-Rumor-Mill

Military Coup In China? Possible Split in PLA?
Started by Deb Mc‎, Today 06:55 PM
http://www.timebomb2000.com/vb/showthread.php?401724-Military-Coup-In-China-Possible-Split-in-PLA

3/14/2012 PRC: Wen - Embrace Political Change Else Risk Another Cultural Revolution
Started by Housecarl‎, 03-14-2012 06:25 PM
http://www.timebomb2000.com/vb/show...-Change-Else-Risk-Another-Cultural-Revolution
______

For links see article source....
Posted for fair use....
http://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2012/mar/21/inside-the-ring-436080940/

Inside the Ring: Beijing coup rumors

By Bill Gertz - The Washington Times

Wednesday, March 21, 2012

Story Topics

War_Conflict
Politics
China
J. Gabriel
Pentagon

Comments (60)

U.S. intelligence agencies monitoring China’s Internet say that from March 14 to Wednesday bloggers circulated alarming reports of tanks entering Beijing and shots being fired in the city as part of what is said to have been a high-level political battle among party leaders - and even a possible military coup.

The Internet discussions included photos posted online of tanks and other military vehicles moving around Beijing.

The reports followed the ouster last week of senior Politburo member and Chongqing Party Secretary Bo Xilai, who was linked to corruption, but who is said to remain close to China’s increasingly nationalistic military.

Chinese microblogging sites Sina Weibo, QQ Weibo, and the bulletin board of the search engine Baidu all reported “abnormalities” in Beijing on the night of March 19.

The comments included rumors of the downfall of the Shanghai leadership faction and a possible “military coup,” along with reports of gunfire on Beijing’s Changan Street. The reports were quickly removed by Chinese censors shortly after postings and could no longer be accessed by Wednesday.

The unusual postings included reports that military vehicles were sent to control Changan Street, along with plainclothes police officers and metal barriers.

Another posting quoted internal sources as saying senior Communist Party leaders are divided over the ouster of Mr. Bo. The divide was said to pit Prime Minister Wen Jiabao and against party security forces and Minister of Public Security Zhou Yongkang.

Late Wednesday, another alarming indicator came when Beijing authorities ordered all levels of public-security and internal-security forces under Mr. Zhou to conduct nationwide study sessions, although Mr. Zhou’s name was not on the order - a sign his future may be in doubt.

Additional references on Chinese social media included vague mention of high-level party political struggles and related police activity in Beijing.

One posting referred to a mysterious atmosphere in Beijing and a reported shooting Tuesday night. The posting was quickly censored by authorities.

PENTAGON CYBERSECURITY LACKING

A defense official told Congress this week that Pentagon security efforts against hackers and other threats remain weak.

Kaigham J. Gabriel, acting director of the Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency, told a Senate hearing Tuesday that the Pentagon is “capability-limited in cyber, both defensively and offensively.”

“We need to change that,” Mr. Gabriel said.

He noted that most details of cybersecurity threats and efforts to counter them can only be disclosed at the “special-access level,” the most secret security classification.

However, in both public and prepared statements to the Senate Armed Services subcommittee on emerging threats, Mr. Gabriel issued unusually blunt criticism of Pentagon cyberwarfare programs, both offensive and defensive.

As for cyberdefenses, Mr. Gabriel revealed that “attackers can penetrate our networks.”

“In just 3 days and at a cost of only $18,000, the Host-Based Security System was penetrated,” he said.

Also, password security remains a “weak link.” For example, in security tests, 53,000 passwords were given to simulated hackers and, within 48 hours, 38,000 passwords were cracked.

Also, the defense supply chain is “at risk,” Mr. Gabriel said.

“More than two-thirds of electronics in U.S. advanced fighter aircraft are fabricated in off-shore foundries,” he said.

Additionally, physical systems can be penetrated easily by hackers. In one case, a smartphone hundreds of miles away took control of a car’s drive system through a security hole in its wireless interface.

“The United States continues to spend on cybersecurity with limited increase in security,” Mr. Gabriel said. “The federal government expended billions of dollars in 2010, but the number of malicious cyberintrusions has increased.”

Mr. Gabriel said the Pentagon has used a layered approach to protecting networks from attack that is not well-suited to dealing with evolving cyberthreats.

“Malicious cyberattacks are not merely an existential threat to [Defense Department] bits and bytes. They are a real threat to physical systems, including military systems, and to U.S. warfighters,” he said. “The United States will not prevail against these threats simply by scaling our current approaches.”

Regarding offensive cyberwarfare operations, Mr. Gabriel said the Pentagon “must have the capability to conduct offensive operations in cyberspace to defend our nation, allies, and interests.”

The Pentagon needs a full range of cybertools for offensive attacks to secure national interests.

“Modern operations will demand the effective use of cyber, kinetic, and combined cyber and kinetic means,” Mr. Gabriel said. He said the shelf life for such weapons may be “days” as defenses are devised or offensive attacks thwarted.

Cyberwarfare tools also can be adapted from intelligence-gathering methods, Mr. Garbriel said.

“Rather, cyber [warfare] options are needed that can be executed at the speed, scale, and pace of our military kinetic options with comparable predicted outcomes,” he said.

In criticism of current U.S. government squabbling over controls and structure, Mr. Gabriel said a better question to be asked once lines of authority are clarified is: “What now?”

“The lack of capability is the overwhelming issue,” Mr. Gabriel said. “Further oversight strategies must be updated and be at pace with the threat.”

SCHWARTZ ON CHINA

Air Force Chief of Staff Gen. Norton Schwartz told the Senate this week that he is most concerned by China’s military integration.

Asked during a Senate Armed Services Committee hearing Tuesday about China’s aircraft carriers, stealth fights and advanced space programs, Gen. Schwartz said he is less worried about hardware than developments in joint-warfighting and electronic advances.

“I would say their areas, in not so much hardware, but in integration of electronic warfare techniques, of cyber capabilities and so on, with more traditional tools of the trade,” Gen. Schwartz said. “They are becoming more sophisticated in this respect, and that is the thing that I am paying the most attention to.”

China is rapidly building up its military forces to be able to conduct high-technology warfare using a combination of advanced conventional weapons and a growing arsenal of nuclear and non-nuclear strategic weapons.

They include new nuclear arms, multiple-warhead missiles, an advanced anti-ship ballistic missiles, anti-satellite weapons and cyber warfare capabilities.

 

[Housecarl]

For links see article source...
Posted for fair use.....
http://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2012/mar/21/inside-china-shake-up-stirs-party-fears/

Inside China: Shake-up stirs party fears

By Miles Yu - The Washington Times

Wednesday, March 21, 2012

Story Topics

Politics
War_Conflict
Bo Xilai
Communist Party
Liberation Army
Comments

The unceremonious dismissal March 15 of high-ranking communist official Bo Xilai - the powerful party chief of the world’s largest metropolis, Chongqing - is causing major concern over the Communist Party’s ability to control the ultimate guarantor of the regime, the 2.28 million-strong People’s Liberation Army (PLA).

Mr. Bo, a flamboyant member of the 25-man collective party dictatorship group called the Politburo, had a penchant for fanning Maoist populism. He was purged after his police chief and vice mayor, Wang Lijun, walked into the U.S. Consulate in Chengdu on Feb. 6 and stayed overnight there in what ultimately was a failed attempt to seek political asylum.

In cleaning up the political fallout Mr. Bo created in Chongqing, Beijing leaders discovered a far more frightening aspect of Mr. Bo’s ambition: his assiduous efforts to infiltrate the army leadership to prepare for a possible military coup if his political ambition were not fulfilled, according to the reported confessions of the current mayor of Chongqing, Huang Qifan, who until a week ago had been Mr. Bo’s henchman and spin doctor for public media on the Wang Lijun scandal.

According to an inside source from the nation’s capital, Mr. Huang revealed a plot to internal party investigators who had been dispatched from Beijing.

“Bo Xilai told me repeatedly that he had actual control over at least two PLA army corps and that if ‘that idiot Xi Jinping’ really becomes the successor to Hu Jintao, [Bo] would immediately order the troops into Beijing and eliminate those SOBs!” Mr. Huang said.

The first scare of a possible military action taken by Mr. Bo occurred in November, when President Hu Jintao was out of the country in Hawaii for an Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation meeting.

In Mr. Hu’s absence, Mr. Bo staged a large, boisterous military exercise in Chongqing. He invited China’s defense minister, Gen. Liang Guanglie, and all other local party strongmen in southwestern China to attend, in violation of a series of Communist Party procedural taboos with regard to troop movements.

Mr. Bo belongs to the powerful faction of “princelings” whose fathers were founding members of the People's Republic of China. The princelings constitute about 40 percent of the current 25-man Politburo.

Although civilians exercise the dominant influence in the Politburo, princelings occupy a growing number of important positions in the highest echelons of the army. Those princelings’ links to the army worry the party’s high command most.

In addition, Zhou Yongkang - Mr. Bo’s fellow princeling in the Politburo and China’s internal security chief, who commands a vast, 1.2 million-member paramilitary force called the People’s Armed Police - is widely known as Mr. Bo’s closest political ally. He also was implicated in the Wang Lijun scandal, according to various news reports in China.

On Monday, the People’s Liberation Army Daily, mouthpiece of the Central Military Commission, published an unusually timed editorial calling for the army’s “absolute obedience to the command of the [party’s] Central Committee, the Central Military Commission and Chairman Hu.”

Such editorials in the past followed major holidays or anniversaries. Some are published in an apparent bid to squelch an internal crisis by signaling to the public that a major purge is in the offing. Monday’s date, March 19, carries no political or celebratory significance in China.

“We must unequivocally oppose all kinds of erroneous ideas and always listen to the party and follow the party,” an editorial urged the troops.

HACKERS STOLE F-35 SECRETS

Chinese computer hackers recently hit the British defense contractor BAE, a partner in the U.S. Air Force’s F-35 Joint Strike Fighter program.

“For 18 months, Chinese cyber attacks had taken place against BAE and had managed to get hold of plans of one of its latest fighters,” a senior BAE executive told London’s Sunday Times.

There were similar reports of Chinese cyberattacks against Northrop Grumman, another partner in the F-35 JSF project.

“Chinese hackers actually sat in on what were supposed to have been secure, online program-progress conferences,” the Feb. 3 edition of Aviation Week quoted U.S. government officials as saying.

China has shown rapid development of advanced, next-generation aircraft and unmanned aircraft that appear uncannily similar to original U.S. designs. They include China’s J-20 fifth-generation stealth fighter and what appear to be homemade adaptations of Global Hawk and other intelligence and sensor aircraft.

• Miles Yu’s column appears Thursdays. He can be reached at mmilesyu@gmail.com.

 

[Housecarl]

For links see article source....
Posted for fair use.....
http://www.google.com/hostednews/ap...qnv4yQ?docId=734ef93716b14aff96cd218c340ed66d

Chinese spies target Taiwan's US-made defenses

By PETER ENAV, Associated Press – 1 hour ago

TAIPEI, Taiwan (AP) — When Taiwanese security personnel detained a suspected spy for China at a top secret military base last month, they may have had a sense of deja vu.

Air force Capt. Chiang — he was identified only by his surname — was the fourth Taiwanese in only 14 months known to have been picked up on charges of spying for China, from which the island split amid civil war 63 years ago. While Taiwan's Defense Ministry did not disclose details of his alleged offense, his base in the northern part of the island hosts the air force's highly classified radar system and U.S.-made Patriot surface-to-air missiles, both vital to the island's aerial defense.

Chiang's arrest followed that of Maj. Gen. Lo Hsieh-che, who had access to crucial information on Taiwan's U.S.-designed command and control system, and civilian Lai Kun-chieh, who the Defense Ministry says tried without success to inveigle Patriot-related secrets from an unnamed military officer. A fourth alleged spy was detained on non-defense-related charges.

The cases show that China is seeking information about two systems that are integral to Taiwan's defenses and built with sensitive U.S. technology. A major breach could make Taiwan more vulnerable to Chinese attack.

Though relations between the two have warmed in recent years, Beijing has never recanted a vow to retake the island, by force if necessary.

Information about the U.S.-supplied defense systems could also help the People's Liberation Army understand other U.S. defenses. Taiwanese officials, however, say their systems are secure, and U.S. experts say American secrets will remain protected in any case.

The possibility that Taiwan might give up military secrets is certainly a worry for the U.S., its most important foreign partner.

Despite shifting recognition from Taipei to Beijing in 1979, Washington continues to sell the island sophisticated military equipment, and sees it as an element in a string of Asian defense relationships that stretches from South Korea to Australia. Any confirmed leak of U.S. defense secrets from Taiwan to China could undermine U.S. willingness to continue providing military equipment and technology to the island.

"We are concerned whenever this type of incident occurs," a U.S. defense official said in an email response to an Associated Press request for comment on the recent espionage incidents. "However, Taiwan has taken aggressive steps in the last year to protect itself from intelligence threats." The official spoke on condition of anonymity because of the sensitivity of the issue.

China and Taiwan have been spying on each other for decades, and U.S. intelligence agencies have also been active on both sides of the Taiwan Strait, including sharing sensitive mainland-related data with Taiwan. But the recent arrests represent a big upsurge in both the seriousness and quantity of Taiwan spy cases compared with previous years.

At the heart of the China's Taiwan espionage efforts are two systems with substantial U.S. technology — the Lockheed Martin and Raytheon-built Patriot missile defense system and the Lockheed-designed Po Sheng command and control system.

The Patriot uses sophisticated radar to track incoming aerial threats, then launches high-performance missiles to bring them down. The Po Sheng network — the Chinese name means Broad Victory — allows Taiwan's army, air force and navy to exchange battlefield information in real time. That is a big advantage in coordinating responses to the attack China has promised if Taiwan ever moves to make its de facto independence permanent.

Defense expert Arthur Ding of Taiwan's Institute for International Relations said successful penetration of the Patriot system could wreak havoc with Taiwan's air defenses, a key component in turning back any future Chinese attack.

"China wants radar data so they can develop countermeasures," he said. "If you have this data you can jam the system or redirect its missiles."

Former Taiwan Deputy Defense Minister Lin Chong-pin said it is not surprising that China was targeting the Patriot and Po Sheng systems.

"These are several of our key capabilities which have been helped by the U.S.," he said. "They are the main obstacles to seizing Taiwan by force."

Deputy Defense Minister Andrew Yang agreed, calling Patriot and Po Sheng "a critical Taiwanese asset." But he told The AP, "The systems have not been compromised."

Beijing's biggest Po Sheng catch to date was almost certainly Maj. Gen. Lo, described by local media at the time of his arrest 14 months ago as the most effective Chinese spy on Taiwan since the 1960s, when a deputy defense minister was picked up in a sweep of communist agents.

Lo headed the army command's communications and information office, and according to Taiwan's defense ministry, he was recruited by the Chinese as a spy in 2004 when he was a military attache based overseas.

Taiwanese news reports say that Lo was arrested on the heels of U.S. surveillance, which determined that he had been recruited by a sultry female spy while serving in Bangkok. The reports said Lo had been blackmailed into providing Beijing with secrets involving electronic warfare and overall strategic planning.

The Defense Ministry says Lo's exposure to Po Sheng was limited. Last July he was sentenced to life in prison after being convicted on espionage charges.

Like Lo, Capt. Chiang had access to sensitive military secrets. Taiwanese news reports said he passed information about an early warning radar system through a Taiwanese businessman working in China.

Citing unidentified military sources, Taiwan's Apple Daily newspaper described the system as a joint Taiwan-U.S. air defense called "yellow net" that can track Chinese missiles launched at the island.

The defense ministry has acknowledged that Chiang had worked at a ground command center in northern Taiwan, without elaborating on what he did there.

The Apple Daily said officials concluded that a major motive for his alleged spying had been a desire to get money to impress his girlfriend with frequent visits to expensive nightclubs.

Two former U.S. government officials familiar with American defense sales to Taiwan said that despite some Taiwanese media reports, China's recent espionage activity on the island does not threaten the integrity of U.S. defense technology. They said Washington withholds sensitive information like sofnd equips highly classified electronic components with anti-tamper devices.

Still, more than just U.S. technology is at stake when Chinese spies target Taiwanese defense networks, one of the former officials said.

"How Po Sheng is used, the network layouts, what systems are integrated into the network and what are not, all this would be very useful for the Chinese to know," he said.

This kind of knowledge — which would not necessarily compromise U.S. technology — could help the Chinese pinpoint weaknesses in the island's overall defense alignment.

While insisting that China's espionage efforts had not undermined Taiwan's ability to defend itself, Yang, the deputy defense minister, said they showed that China has never let up on trying to steal Taiwan's most vital military secrets, despite Taiwan President Ma Ying-jeou's recent moves to try to lower tensions across the Taiwan Strait amid rapidly improving commercial and political relations.

"Nothing has really changed," Yang said. "Beijing has continued its espionage activities despite the improvement in ties."

Associated Press writer Matthew Pennington in Washington contributed to this report.

Copyright © 2012 The Associated Press. All rights reserved.

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Washington Post - 20 hours ago

 

[Housecarl]

Jewish School Shooter Cornered by French Police, Officers Injured, Standoff Lingers
Started by Red Baron‎, Today 03:03 AM
http://www.timebomb2000.com/vb/show...ench-Police-Officers-Injured-Standoff-Lingers
_____

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http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-17467234

21 March 2012 Last updated at 13:12 ET
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Arrests after blast outside Indonesian embassy in Paris
Police officers work at the site of a bomb explosion near the Indonesian Embassy, in Paris, Wednesday 21 March 2012 The blast damaged cars and blew out nearby windows

French police are questioning three suspects in connection with a bomb blast outside the Indonesian embassy in Paris.

The explosion caused damage to vehicles and windows but injured no-one.

"It's a small miracle that there were no victims," one police official told the AFP news agency.

No group has said it planted the bomb. The Indonesian government said it was deeply concerned by the blast and was working closely with French police.

"I would like the police to be allowed to carry out their investigations before we start speculating why this happened in front of our embassy and whether we are a target," Indonesian Foreign Minister Marty Natalegawa said.

French Europe 1 radio said the three suspects were being questioned by the anti-terrorism branch of the Paris Criminal Brigade.

Police say a refuse collector found the bomb in a bag under one of the embassy windows early on Wednesday.

"He looked inside the bag, opened it and thought it must be a bomb since he saw a canister attached to wires. He dropped it, left the area and called the police. That's when it exploded," Jean-Louis Fiamenghi, chief of staff to Paris police chief Michel Gaudin, told AFP.

Other reports say an embassy employee found the device at the door of the building and stepped away before it detonated.

It was not clear if there was a link between the bombing and recent attacks in southern France.

 

[Housecarl]

For links see article source.....
Posted for fair use.....
http://www.latimes.com/news/opinion/commentary/la-oe-cagaptay-turkey-pivot-20120321,0,3675817.story

Op-Ed
Turkey's foreign policy pivot
What made Ankara do an about-face and re-embrace the West? Recognition of what gives it power in the Middle East.
Comments 3

By Soner Cagaptay

March 21, 2012

Turkey's foreign policy has come full circle in the last year. Far from confronting Washington on a range of issues, Ankara is embracing its membership in NATO while working closely with Washington on Middle East issues, including Iran and coordinating Syria policy. What has changed?

First and foremost, Ankara has come to appreciate a constant in the value of its foreign policy: Turkey is east if you view it from the perspective of the West, and west if you view it from the perspective of the East.

In the 2000s, Ankara's pivot away from the West almost upset Turkey's unique identity. The nation entered a period of increasingly cold relations with the United States and turned its interest to the Middle East in hopes of becoming a regional power. This strategy, however, did not exactly make Ankara a formidable power in the Middle East. Take, for instance, the Saudis' and other Persian Gulf countries' yearning for a regional counterbalance against Iran. For them the Turkey of the 2000s, isolated from NATO and Washington, began to resemble a "wealthy Yemen," i.e., a prosperous, large Muslim nation with no real value added to regional security. Ankara's strategy even started to erode its national prestige, although it initially was popular with the people.

Ultimately, Turkey came to realize that its strategic value to the Middle East is not rooted in the fact it's a Muslim power — the region has many such states — but that it is a Muslim power with strong ties to the U.S., access to NATO technology and muscle, and the ability to sit at the table with the Europeans. This realization was the catalyst forAnkara'sforeign policy turnaround. Accordingly, in September 2011, Turkey made the strategic choice to join NATO's missile defense project.

That was a major foreign policy move by the Turkish government. If the Cold War defined NATO's identity in the 20th century, then the missile defense project defines NATO in the 21st. Just as members of the alliance agreed to defend one another against communism during the Cold War, with the missile defense project, the members of NATO have now agreed to defend one another against a new threat, namely ballistic missiles that would likely come from Iran, Russia, China or other volatile regions.

This is what makes Ankara's decision to join the missile defense system the most important Turkish foreign policy move of the last decade. It is Turkey saying Ankara's relations with the West remain key, but more important, that Turkey now appreciates the effect its Western overlay — i.e., NATO membership — will have in making it a regional power.

For the Saudis and other Arab nations in the Middle East, Turkey is no longer a "wealthy Yemen" but rather the strong Turkey that Ankara sought to be when it launched its Middle East policy a decade ago.

Of course, other factors have helped foster Ankara's foreign policy change. One is the close relationship that has emerged between President Obama and Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan. Erdogan likes to be liked, and Obama has given him attention and respect, which in turn helped remold Turkish foreign policy through Erdogan's powerful personality.

At the same time, the Arab Spring has exposed the limits of Turkey's "act alone" strategy in the Middle East. For example, the uprising in Syria demonstrated that Turkey cannot deal with massive regional instability unilaterally. Ankara reportedly has asked for NATO assistance to contain the fallout of the Syria crisis, such as dealing with a probable massive refugee flow from Syria.

Moreover, the uprising in Syria has further cast Turkey and Iran as regional adversaries: Turkey supports the Syrian opposition; Iran arms the Assad regime. During the 2000s, Turkey approached Tehran to establish good relations, but today Iran considers Turkey a rival. This is one more reason why Ankara turned to Washington and NATO.

Turkey's new foreign policy perspective even provides Israel with a unique opportunity. But the Israelis first need to move beyond the paralysis in their relationship with Ankara, which seems to boil down to the "apology" issue over the 2010 flotilla incident off the coast of Gaza. Ankara too should be interested in repairing ties with Israel because Turkey's value to the region would be increased if Erdogan could pick up the phone and call any world leader, including Israel's. This is the logic behind Turkey's pivot.

Soner Cagaptay is a senior fellow at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy.

Copyright © 2012, Los Angeles Times

 

[Housecarl]

Hummm.....

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http://www.foreignpolicy.com/articles/2012/03/20/brazils_european_dream

Brazil's European Dream
Why Brasilia sees the euro crisis as a once-in-a-generation opportunity.
BY EDUARDO J. GÓMEZ | MARCH 20, 2012
COMMENTS (1)

The news that Brazil has overtaken Britain to become the world's sixth largest economic power is being touted as a sign that that the longtime "country of the future" has finally arrived. While the celebrations have been somewhat muted by concerns over slowing GDP growth and the country's still-heavy dependence on high energy and food prices, Brazil is heading into the coming global showcases of both the 2014 World Cup and the 2016 Summer Olympics with more than its usual swagger.

But this emerging economic prominence is raising the question of just what kind of actor Brazil will be on the world stage. In the past 20 years, Brazil has become well known for turning crisis situations into geopolitical opportunities, becoming a leading voice in international forums devoted to AIDS, poverty, and even the environment. And now, it is doing it again with a challenge that Brazilians understand all too well: a debt crisis.

Only this time, it's Europe in need of a helping hand, not the former Portuguese colony in Latin America. At an EU-Brazil summit held in Brussels last October, President Dilma Rousseff told European leaders, who had asked for assistance: "You can rely and count on us." As an initial strategy, Rousseff and her finance minister, Guido Mantega, considered using their foreign exchange reserves -- estimated at $352 billion -- to purchase debt through treasury bonds. However, after consulting with her BRIC colleagues at a meeting in Washington last November, Brazil decided that buying EU bonds would be too financially risky, and proposed instead to indirectly assist Europe by donating an estimated $10 billion to the International Monetary Fund.

There is a grander strategy at work here beyond seeking to help Europe in its hour of need. The IMF contributions stem from Rousseff's intention to maintain a tradition that began under her predecessor, President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, of using foreign assistance as a means to strengthen Brazil's international reputation and influence. Yet another example is Brazil's annual contributions to the World Bank, which have averaged $253 million from 2004 to 2009. Brazil was the first nation to contribute -- $ 55 million -- to the World Bank's Haitian Reconstruction Fund. From 2003-2007, Brazil also gave approximately $340 million to fund the U.N.'s operations. Lula also increased Brazil's contribution to the U.N.'s World Food Program from $ 1 million in 2009 to $ 27 million in 2011.

There's also the satisfaction of seeing the tables turn. Because of Brazil's recent economic success and reputation, the IMF has approached Brasília for help for the first time. Back in 1998, it was the Brazilian government, under President Fernando H. Cardoso, that was running to the IMF for assistance. Brazil was trying to recover from a capital flight of roughly $30 billion dollars, triggered by a lack of foreign investor confidence due to exorbitant debt and recession. To help quell investor speculation that Brazil would default (like Russia did months earlier), the IMF provided a bailout package of $41 billion on the condition that Cardoso prune government expenditures by 20 percent and reform the pension system.

Then in 2001, after a steep decline in foreign investment, currency depreciation, and a debt crisis in neighboring Argentina, Brazil essentially begged the IMF to help avoid a default on its external debt. This time the government received $15 billion in exchange for reducing federal expenditures and maintaining a primary budget surplus of approximately 3.75 percent through 2005.

Today, Brazil seems to be relishing the opportunity to impose conditions on the IMF: Last October, Brasília made it crystal clear that it will not help the IMF should it decide to continue imposing austerity measures on European states. Much to Brazil's chagrin, however, last month the IMF and the EU provided a bailout package of 130 billion euros to Greece with stiff austerity measures attached, grudgingly passed by Greece's parliament -- a slight that may explain Brazil's delayed assistance to the IMF. What's more, Finance Minister Mantega has told the EU that Brazil will only provide IMF support as long as the EU strengthens its Central Bank and if other European nations contribute to the European Financial Stability Facility, the special relief fund set up provide a firewall for heavily indebted economies.

Rousseff also wants an expanded role for Brazil within the IMF, along with the other BRICS, mainly through increased quota shares and voting rights. She has joined her colleagues from China, India, Russia, and South Africa in emphasizing that the IMF needs to recognize the importance of the world's largest emerging economies and allow for opinions and recommendations from nations that have overcome their economic hurdles and that more accurately represent the developing world.

Despite the IMF Governing Board's agreement in 2008 to increase the BRICS' quota and vote shares, and despite the Board deciding to shift more than 6 percent of the quota shares to them and other nations last December, these recommendations have yet to be officially adopted and ratified into the Articles of Agreement. What's more, analysts and the BRICS believe that these changes are insufficient, especially in light of the US and Europe's substantially higher quota shares, voting rights, and the BRICS' growing importance to the global economy. Mantegna and Rousseff hope that the Euro crisis will be an opportunity to address this imbalance.

Europe's crisis has also accelerated the shifting power dynamics between Brazil and its former colonial power, heavily indebted Portugal. Rousseff has not only proposed to buy Portuguese treasury bonds, but she has also considered the possibility of early buybacks of Brazilian bonds held by the Portuguese government, which would help reduce Portugal's debt by retiring bonds at a discount while stabilizing the bond market. While Mantega has expressed his reservations, given Portugal's potential inability to repay and the legal limitations on using Brazil's foreign reserves for buying debt, Rousseff still seems firmly committed to these options, stating that she will do "everything to help" and pledging to lend a hand. Rousseff views Portugal's recession as an opportunity to strengthen bilateral political and economic ties, helping overturn years of jealousy and envy over Brazil's success. And she has often invoked simple gratitude as a motive, referring to Portugal's past assistance in Brazil's time of economic crisis.

But cultural affinity and altruism can only explain so much. Several Brazilian companies have invested in Portugal in recent years, with a total investment of $ 65 million in 2008, increasing to $ 310 million in 2009. Rumor has it that Petrobras, Brazil's state-owned oil company, is planning to purchase 33 percent of Galp, Portugal's leading petroleum company. Portuguese businesses have also invested heavily in Brazil. And in January 2011, Portugal's Telecom acquired 25 percent of Brazil's biggest land-line phone company, Oi, for $5 billion. Last year overall, Portugal's investments ranged from the energy sector, to tourism and construction, tallying approximately 25 billion euros.

Of course, engaging with Europe carries risks at a time when Brazil's own economic future -- generally attributed to high tax rates, inflation, an overvalued currency, and high public sector deficits -- isn't exactly guaranteed. The government projects the country's economic growth will not exceed 3.4 percent this year -- it was 2.7 percent last year, down from 7.5 percent in 2010 -- so Brasilia may not have very much cash to spare come 2013.

Despite these economic risks, Rousseff's European strategy is a smart move. By providing financial support in time of need, Brazil can strengthen its partnership and economic relationship with several European countries, as well as with the IMF. And by lending a hand, Rousseff may be able to garner more European support as she strives to boost Brazil's influence within the U.N. system and the IMF. Through these calculated endeavors, Rousseff can signal that Brazil isn't just arriving on the international scene, it's here to stay.
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Eduardo J. Gómez is assistant professor of public policy at Rutgers University at Camden.

 

[The Flying Dutchman]

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Threat of strike on Iran is working: Israel's Barak

By AFPPublished Thursday, March 22, 2012
http://www.emirates247.com/news/reg...is-working-israel-s-barak-2012-03-22-1.449981​

The threat of a military strike on Iran is preventing the Islamic republic from taking the final steps towards developing a nuclear bomb, Israeli Defence Minister Ehud Barak said on Thursday.

"We are seeing with our own eyes the reason why Iran, which really wants to achieve a military nuclear capability, is not taking some of the steps defined by the IAEA as breaking the rules, why it is not breaking out," he told public radio, referring to the UN's International Atomic Energy Agency.

"One of the reasons is the fear of what will happen if, God forbid, the United States or maybe someone else acts against them," Barak said, referring to the threat of an air strike against Iran's nuclear facilities.

Israel sees an Iranian nuclear weapon as a threat to its existence, and believes Tehran may be on the cusp of "break out" capacity -- the moment when it could quickly produce weapons-grade uranium.

With Iran shifting its core nuclear facilities into protected underground sites, Israel fears Tehran is moving into the so-called "immunity zone," and has warned a military strike may be the only way to prevent the Islamic republic from obtaining a nuclear weapons capability.

Although the Obama administration has made clear it would not hesitate "to use force" where necessary, it has also said it opposes an attack for now, and wants time to let a new round of sanctions take effect.

Israel and Washington disagree over the imminence of the Iranian nuclear threat, and the only way to overcome this disagreement was to step up the sanctions imposed on Tehran and to ensure the upcoming talks achieved results, Barak said.

"There's a point of disagreement and the only way of getting over it and resolving it is by accelerating the sanctions, and by setting down a short timetable for the talks next month, to test if they mean to stop their nuclear programme or not," he said.






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[The Flying Dutchman]

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Barak:
Israel, US Disagree on Iran Timetable

Defense Minister Ehud Barak says different strategic perspectives
have led to divergent senses of urgency in Jerusalem and DC.

By Gavriel Queenann
First Publish: 3/22/2012, 2:37 PM

Reuters
http://www.israelnationalnews.com/News/News.aspx/154045​

Defense Minister Ehud Barak says Israel and the US disagree on what would be a realistic timetable for stopping Iran from obtaining nuclear weapons.

Barak reiterated Israel's concerns that Iran is trying to render nuclear program immune from attack before taking a decision on assembling atomic bombs.

Israel “cannot afford to wait" in such a situation, Barak told Israel Radio, adding in an interview Thursday, "Israel feels directly threatened by a nuclear Iran." However, Barak added, "several more months" can be given to allow sanctions and negotiations to run their course.

During this period, it would become clear “if the Iranians intend or don't intent to stop their nuclear weapons program," he said.

During the interview, Barak argued that superior US military capabilities and America’s position as a world power lead to its leaders perceiving the Iran nuclear threat differently than Jerusalem.

Barak said Israel and the U.S. agree on the final objective of preventing Iran from building nuclear weapons, but that “the difference between us and the U.S. is the perspective on timetables.”

“America has more abilities than Israel,” Barak said. “You can think of a time when Israel would be very limited in its ability to act.”

The rising specter of a possible military strike on Iran's nuclear facilities comes ahead of renewed nuclear talks between Iran and the so-called 5+1 – the five permanent members of the U.N. Security Council plus Germany.

Mohammad Javad Larijani – a key advisor to Iran's supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei – has signaled Iran may be willing to halt its uranium enrichment program.

Larijani said the West should accept Iran's "peaceful nuclear program," sell Iran 20 percent enriched uranium, and provide the customary assistance nuclear nations provide to those building nuclear power plants.

In return for cooperation from the West Iran would offer "full transparency," Larijani said.

He did not say Iran would halt uranium enrichment – a key demand by Jerusalem and Washington to avoid military strikes – but observers say the stipulation that the West provide 20% enriched uranium indicates Iran is open to doing so.

Iran denies it is trying to develop nuclear weapons, and insists its nuclear program is meant for peaceful uses such as generating electricity.

However, the International Atomic Energy Association has issued two reports in recent months indicating Iran has sought – and continues to seek – nuclear technology that has solely military applications.





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[The Flying Dutchman]

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A disquieting silence

The US has not wholeheartedly pursued diplomacy
and Iran's animosity is deep-seated-The Economist

Published: 00:00 March 23, 2012
http://gulfnews.com/arts-entertainment/books/a-disquieting-silence-1.997254​

With dark rumours swirling of an attack on Iran's nuclear programme, this new book by Trita Parsi is well-timed. The founder of the National Iranian American Council in Washington, DC, details American diplomacy with the Islamic Republic under Barack Obama.

His analysis of the grim stalemate that has characterised relations between the Great Satan and the mullahs since 1979 is both absorbing and frustrating. It is a tale of missed opportunities, obduracy and short-sightedness, all which are pushing the Middle East towards greater instability.

Under George Bush, America's relationship with Iran festered. The two powers collaborated occasionally in Afghanistan, but with America driven by the premise that "we don't speak to evil", detente was a distant possibility. America saw negotiations not as a tool of diplomacy but as a reward to be granted only to those states that had proved they were deserving of them. Iran, grouped with North Korea and Iraq as part of the "axis of evil", was not.

The inauguration of a new president who from the start promised the Muslim world respect and who offered the hand of American friendship to those willing to unclench their fist, prompted stirrings of hope, both in Iran and beyond, that this could be a new start. (Persian speakers also noted that Obama means "He is with us".)

But the bitter mistrust that divides Iran and America, and the domestic considerations of leaders on both sides, eroded that initial optimism. Time and again in negotiations over Iran's nuclear programme, America and its allies assumed Iranian duplicity and insincerity. For their part, the Iranians saw in America's outstretched hand only the determination to snatch from their country its independence, rights and potential.

Even during the deepest chill of the Cold War, America and Russia found ways of talking. Today a frozen silence stretches from Tehran to Washington. "When you don't know what's going on, and you don't feel like you have somebody you can communicate with on the other side of the table, you are going to revert back to what's safe … and what's safe in the Iran context is demonisation and just general negativity," explains an American official.

Iran's reluctance to engage goes deeper: "Tehran cannot come to terms with Washington without risking an internal identity and legitimacy crisis." Animosity towards America is written into the Islamic Republic's DNA. If the relationship is restored, "we will dissolve ourselves", admits Amir Mohebian, an Iranian conservative.

But diplomacy with Iran, Parsi maintains, has never been pursued to the point of exhaustion. Look at Libya (before the uprising), Vietnam and Northern Ireland, he insists, and the painstaking years of quiet discussions with each of them. The talks between America and Iran, a few weeks here, a fortnight there, have never matched that.

The approach has focused on the nuclear issue to the exclusion of all others, a take-it-or-leave-it attitude that has always been doomed. Negotiations such as these succeed not because the proposals are flawless or because both sides play fair, but "because the many flaws associated with the talks are overcome by the political will to reach a solution".

That political will, says Parsi, has been absent. The mutual mistrust has left no margin for error. Neither has seen any domestic political benefit in pushing for a serious settlement. And now, with the tick-tocking of the nuclear clock growing ever more insistent, reconciliation looks less and less likely. The enmity between America and Iran, stoked by three decades of demonising each other, is no longer a phenomenon, Parsi concludes. "It is an institution."





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[The Flying Dutchman]

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March 20th, 2012
12:33 PM ET

Dangers for Syria after the fall of al-Assad

http://globalpublicsquare.blogs.cnn...r-syria-after-the-fall-of-al-assad/?hpt=wo_r1​

Editor’s Note: This is an edited version of an article from the ‘Oxford Analytica Daily Brief’. Oxford Analytica is a global analysis and advisory firm that draws on a worldwide network of experts to advise its clients on their strategy and performance.

Rebel forces and government troops clashed in Damascus yesterday, in what opposition sources described as the heaviest round of fighting in the capital since the start of the uprising. The authoritarian regime established in 1970 by Hafez al-Assad and inherited by his son Bashar in 2000 is highly likely to end in its current form, but not imminently: It could last well into 2013.

The regime seems likely to collapse following a prolonged conflict that exacerbates sectarian divisions. This could lead to a period of instability much worse than in Libya as groups of Sunni Arab rebels vie for power with each other and with militias dominated by the al-Assad family's Alawi sect, and possibly other minorities. Eventually, a weak government is likely to emerge, which is guided by a secular constitutional framework, but deeply divided internally along communal lines.

Post-al-Assad Syria is likely to see a constitution that balances democracy with the rights of the major communities. These consist of Arab Sunni Muslims (51-53%); Kurds (14-16%); Alawis (11-13%); Christians (8-10%); the Druze (3%); and Ismaili Shia (3%). The Sunni Arabs will seek a dominant share of representation in the new system because of their numbers and leading role in the uprising.

The Muslim Brotherhood has long been the main source of opposition to the regime, but it lacks the grassroots organization that benefited mainstream Islamist groups in Egypt and Tunisia. Its leadership understands the need to build an inclusive system and will come under strong external pressure to act cooperatively.

A substantial part of the opposition wants a continuation of the secular regimes that have ruled Syria since independence. However, the experiences of Iraq and Lebanon have demonstrated a preference for systems based on ethnic and religious affiliations, particularly at times of political upheaval. Such a system can paralyse decision-making, impede reform and entrench communal divisions.

The Alawis are too large a minority to be excluded from the system and are likely to remain a key element in the armed forces. The Alawi-dominated Praetorian Guards and the numerous security and intelligence services will be disbanded. However, the government will need to retain some Alawi officers in other parts of the armed forces to ensure Syria can continue to defend itself.

The ruling Ba'ath Party will follow other state parties into oblivion. It will take time for new ones to form, organize and win support. The Sunni political and business elite has some experience in government, albeit in the al-Assad system where ministers had little authority.

There is as yet no viable alternative government on the model of Libya's Transitional National Council. The external opposition, including the Syrian National Council, is divided and lacks credibility. The internal opposition is composed mostly of local groups and lacks a coherent national structure.

The increasing involvement of the international community should see efforts to help the opposition organize more effectively and plan strategies for a new Syria.

Any successor government will inherit an economy weakened by sanctions and conflict, and by the al-Assads' failure to modernize it effectively. Drought, declining oil output and a still poorly developed tourism sector will limit the capital available to invest in job creation and tackling poverty. The change will generate great expectations that could overwhelm a fragile new administration run by inexperienced leaders.





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[The Flying Dutchman]

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Army forces attack Syrian towns

March 22 2012 at 03:00pm
REUTERS
http://www.iol.co.za/news/world/army-forces-attack-syrian-towns-1.1261841​

Syrian security forces inspect a damaged building near the intelligence building, in Damascus in this handout photo distributed by the Syrian News Agency.

Syrian army forces attacked several towns on Thursday, killing a teenager and wounding dozens of other people in shelling and heavy machine-gun fire, monitors said.

The Syrian Observatory for Human Rights said a 17-year-old boy was killed and dozens wounded in an army assault on the town of Sermin in the northwestern province of Idlib on the border with Turkey.

In the south, rebel fighters killed a soldier and wounded four others near the village of Saida in Daraa province, on the border with Jordan and where Syria's year-old revolt against the regime erupted, it said.

The Britain-based Observatory also reported several people wounded as regime forces opened fire with heavy machineguns in the Arbaeen district of Hama city in central Syria.

In Deir Ezzor province, to the east, regime troops carried out search operations in the town of Quriyeh, making 10 arrests, including four members of the same family, it said.

The reports could not be confirmed due to restrictions on the movements of foreign media in the country. - AFP






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[The Flying Dutchman]

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Lebanon FM: Lebanese Stance Similar to Russia's in Rejection
of Foreign Interference, Dialogue as Solution for Crisis

Mar 22, 2012
http://www.sana.sy/eng/22/2012/03/22/407714.htm​

BEIRUT, (SANA) – Lebanese Foreign Minister Adnan Mansour stressed that his country's stance with regard to Syria is to a large extent similar to Russia's as the two stances reject foreign interference in Syria's domestic affairs, refuse the idea of arming the opposition and keen on Syria's sovereignty and territorial integrity, in addition to considering dialogue as the basis for solving the crisis.

Mansour said in an interview with Lebanese al-Manar TV on Thursday that Lebanon is more committed to its stance than before, whose correctness has been proven after several months of the crisis, particularly after international parties retreated from their stern stances, adding " there is no way out but through the political solution and dialogue."

The Lebanese Minister pointed out that the Syrian leadership has responded to reform demands right from the beginning as it is also working on them through approving several legislations and laws, the most prominent of which are the new Constitution, the Parties Law, the Media Law and preparing for the forthcoming legislative elections.

He underlined that Lebanon will never attend the so-called " Friends of Syria" conference which is due to be held in Istanbul next month, adding "Lebanon's relationship is with the Syrian state and the events taking place do not mean that we should go so far and act illegally."

Lebanon's Foreign Minister pointed out that his country depends on Syria in the economic and trade domains but not the other way round, so it cannot go along with the Arab League's sanctions against Syria.





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[The Flying Dutchman]

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Thursday, March 22, 2012, 12:10

Syria tanks shell Hama suburb

http://www.irishtimes.com/newspaper/breaking/2012/0322/breaking10.html​

Clashes flared across Syria today, opposition activists said, the day after the UN Security Council had called on all sides to stop fighting and seek a negotiated settlement to the year-long uprising.

United Nations secretary-general Ban Ki-moon said the Security Council has sent an unmistakable message to Syria that all violence must stop as the death toll from a year of violence passed 8,000.

Mr Ban said there must be a ceasefire in Syria so humanitarian aid can be dispatched.

The Syrian uprising, which began a year ago, is transforming into an armed insurgency that many fear is pushing the country toward civil war.

Opposition sources said Syrian tanks had heavily shelled a large suburb in the city of Hama today after fighting between Free Syrian Army rebels and pro-Assad forces.

The shelling destroyed houses in the Arbaeen neighborhood of northeast Hama, which has been at the forefront of the revolt. Opposition sources said at least 20 people have died in army attacks in the area in the last two days.

It is impossible to verify reports from Syria because the authorities have denied access to independent journalists. Syrian troops also attempted to storm the northern town of Sermeen, killing one man and wounding dozens, the British-based Syrian Observatory for Human Rights (SOHR) said, quoting its network of contacts within Syria.

"Syrian forces are still not able to get inside the town because of fighting but they are shelling Sermeen and using heavy machine guns," said SOHR head Rami Abdelrahman.

Fighting was also reported in the central Hama province and the southern city of Deraa, where several soldiers died in an ambush, and loyalist forces conducted raids in the eastern province of Deir al-Zor, he added.

Because of Syria’s close alliances with Iran and the Lebanese militant group Hizbullah, there are concerns that the violence could spread beyond the country’s borders, especially if other nations arm the rebels or send in their own troops.

Reports today suggest Syrian tanks shelled a large neighbourhood in the city of Hama this morning following clashes between Free Syrian Army rebels and forces loyal to president Bashar al-Assad.

The shelling destroyed houses and left an unknown number of casualties in the Arbaeen neighbourhood in the northeast of the city, which has been at the forefront of the revolt against Dr Assad, opposition sources said.

They added that at least 13 people have been killed in an army bombardment on the city and its countryside in the last two days.

Mr Ban said “nobody is discussing military operations” to resolve the crisis, but he added that the Red Cross has proposed a few hours’ halt in violence every day so humanitarian aid can be delivered.

The previously divided UN Security Council sent a united message to the Syrian government and opposition yesterday to immediately implement proposals by international envoy Kofi Annan to end the year-long bloodshed.

A non-binding statement approved by the 15 council members and read at a formal meeting spells out Mr Annan’s six proposals which include a ceasefire first by the Syrian government, a daily two-hour halt to fighting to evacuate the injured and provide humanitarian aid, and inclusive Syrian-led political talks “to address the legitimate concerns of the Syrian people”.

Mr Annan, the joint UN-Arab League envoy, appealed to the Security Council last Friday for its backing, saying the stronger and more unified the message, the better the chances of shifting the dynamics of the conflict.

The UK’s UN ambassador Mark Lyall Grant, the current council president, said the council statement sends “precisely the strong and united message to the Syrian government and all other actors in Syria that they need to respond, and respond quickly and immediately, to the six-point plan”.

In a bid to win support from Russia and China, which have twice vetoed European and US-backed resolutions condemning Dr Assad’s crackdown on protesters, France watered down the statement to eliminate possible consideration of “further measures” which could include sanctions or military action.

Instead, the presidential statement asks Mr Annan to update the council regularly on the progress of his mission and says that “in the light of these reports, the Security Council will consider further steps as appropriate”.

A presidential statement, which needs approval from all council members, becomes part of the council’s permanent record. It is stronger than a press statement, which does not. But unlike resolutions, neither statement is legally binding.

Russia and China had called the earlier resolutions unbalanced, saying they only blamed the Syrian government and demanded an end to government attacks, not ones by the opposition. Moscow also argued that the resolutions promoted regime change in Syria and expressed fear of outside intervention to support the rebels, as happened in Libya.

Syria’s state-run news agency SANA played down the UN statement, saying there are no threats or ultimatums directed toward Damascus. The agency’s assessment echoed an earlier statement by Syrian ally Russia.





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[The Flying Dutchman]

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800 Nuclear Triggers Smuggled to Israel,
Mastermind Untouchable - Secret FBI Files

PR Newswire – 41 mins ago...
To: FOREIGN AND STATE EDITORS
http://news.yahoo.com/800-nuclear-t...-mastermind-untouchable-secret-143608454.html​

WASHINGTON, March 22, 2012 /PRNewswire-USNewswire/ -- The following is being released by the Institute for Research: Middle Eastern Policy:

An espionage ring smuggled 800 krytons to the Israeli Ministry of Defense for use in the clandestine Israeli nuclear weapons program according to newly declassified FBI files. The secret documents were originally scheduled for public release in the year 2036, but were obtained under appeal to the Justice Department by the Institute for Research: Middle Eastern Policy (IRmep). The documents available online at http://www.IRmep.org/ila/krytons reveal new details about the failed effort to indict the nuclear smuggling ring's masterminds.

A kryton is a gas-filled tube used as a high-speed switch. Their export requires a U.S. State Department munitions license because they can be used as triggers for nuclear weapons. The U.S. government rejected several requests for kryton export licenses to Israel. California-based MILCO International Inc. shipped 15 orders totaling 800 krytons through an intermediary to the Israeli Ministry of Defense between 1979 and 1983. Heli Trading Company, owned by Israeli movie producer Arnon Milchan, brokered the transactions with MILCO.

The FBI file reveals that after the illicit kryton exports were discovered, a U.S. attorney tried to flip MILCO President Richard Kelly Smyth to implicate Milchan during intense plea bargaining. The gambit failed, and in May 1984 Smyth was indicted on 30 counts of smuggling and making false statements. Smyth and his wife promptly fled the US until extradited from Spain by Interpol in 2001. Milchan denied any involvement.

In 1985 a federal grand jury was convened in Los Angeles to investigate related Atomic Energy Act and Arms Export Control Act violations, but no charges were ever filed against Milchan or those who covered Smyth's living expenses abroad. The FBI records reveal intense interest in Milchan into the mid-1990s. In 1992, a confidential informant apparently relayed new details of Milchan's ties to Smyth. The declassified but heavily redacted "secret" communications reveal the FBI's review of Milchan's 1996 entry in Who's Who, close relations with Israeli leaders Shimon Peres and Benjamin Netanyahu, and news clippings.

A 2011 biography titled Confidential: The Life of Secret Agent Turned Hollywood Tycoon Arnon Milchan claims that Milchan was recruited into Israel's LAKAM economic espionage unit in his 20s and became a key operative for Benjamin Blumberg and Rafi Eitan. Blumberg was the head of LAKAM. Eitan infiltrated the Nuclear Materials and Equipment Corporation NUMEC in 1968 and later handled convicted spy Jonathan Pollard.






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[The Flying Dutchman]

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Posted at 11:20 AM ET, 03/22/2012

Saudi’s top sheikh:
‘Necessary to destroy all churches’

By Nasim Rehmatullah
http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs...-all-churches/2012/03/21/gIQAFQIiTS_blog.html​

On Monday, March 12th, the Grand Mufti of Saudi Arabia, Sheikh Abdul Aziz bin Abdullah – Saudi Arabia’s supreme religious official – created a stir when he stated that it is “necessary to destroy all the churches of the region.” While responding to a question from a Kuwait-based NGO delegation to clarify Islamic law’s position about a proposed Kuwaiti ban on the construction of new churches, the mufti argued that the Prophet Muhammad said the Arabian Peninsula must exist under only one religion and, thus, all churches in the region must be destroyed.

Needless to say, his words have provoked heated responses from Christians throughout the Middle East. All fair-minded people are rightly upset by his remarks, which hold the dangerous likelihood of triggering acts of violence against churches in the Middle East. As Muslims, however, we are also deeply disappointed and offended by the mufti’s blatant disregard for the principles for which Islam’s Holy Scripture and prophet have stood.

The Koran establishes the principle that the origin of all religions is in divine revelation and that their Founders were divinely appointed messengers who must be equally respected. It further commands Muslims to defend all places of worship – churches, synagogues, temples, cloisters, etc – even with their own lives. Far from sanctioning any destruction, our faith instructs us to protect places of worship of all religions.

How can the highest recognized cleric in Saudi Arabia have completely abandoned such clear and direct commandments in the Koran? It is entirely disappointing to see a man in a position of leadership in the Muslim world sanction – and even promote – the violent destruction or demolition of any house of worship, wherein the name of God is oft commemorated.

In fact, Islam goes even further. Muslims have also been made to promise to defend followers of other faiths from unjust and cruel attacks. In 628, the Prophet Muhammad delivered the Charter of Privileges to the monks of St. Catherine Monastery in Mt. Sinai. This charter protected the human rights of all Christians and remains a guide for all Muslim states’ relations with non-Muslim minorities. In this charter, the Prophet Muhammad made a declaration that nullifies the Saudi Mufti’s call to destroy all churches. The charter, still preserved in Mt. Sinai today, states: “None of their churches or other places of worship will be desolated, destroyed or demolished. No material of their churches will be used for building mosques or houses for the Muslims. Any Muslim doing so will be regarded as disobedient to God and His Prophet.”

The only logical deduction to make from the Prophet of Islam’s clear instruction is that this Grand Mufti of Saudi Arabia is disobedient to God and His Prophet. The Prophet Muhammad even goes further by stating “every help shall be given (Christians) in the repair of their churches.” So we can forget the notion of destroying churches. We, as Muslims, are expected to help in repairing churches.

For those Muslims who may assert that this charter does not apply today, they need not look any further than Muhammad’s first words of the charter: “I have caused this document to be written for Christians of the East and the West, for those who live near, and for those of distant lands, for the Christians living at present and for those who would come after, for those Christians who are known to us and for those as well whom we do not know.” The charter concludes, “Let this document be not disobeyed till the Judgment Day.”

The Ahmadiyya Muslim Community calls upon the appointed leaders in different parts of the Muslim world to adhere to the words of the Prophet of Islam and to stop prohibiting the free exercise of faith. As followers of Mirza Ghulam Ahmad – who claimed to be the second coming of Jesus and Messiah for all people to remove misconceptions in religion, revive the true teachings of Islam, and bring mankind back to God – the community advances his message that Islam forbids any act of aggression or terrorism against any religion. Before innocent people are victimized by those seeking to fulfill the mufti’s commandment, he must align himself with the views of Islam’s scripture and Prophet by retracting his dangerous statement.






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[BREWER]

Posted for fair use and discussion.
http://www.debka.com/article/21847/

Mohammed Merah is dead. He was a new breed of Iron Man terrorist
DEBKAfile Special Report March 22, 2012, 1:57 PM (GMT+02:00)
Tags: France Al Qaeda Terror
Al Qaeda killer Mohammed Merah

The French-born al Qaeda killer, Mohammed Merah - who shocked the world by murdering three Jewish schoolchildren and their teacher in Toulouse by shots to the head, after killing three French paratroopers - was found dead after jumping out of a window still shooting Thursday, March 22. First, he injured three police officers searching his apartment, bursting out of the bathroom firing madly.

This 23-year old Muslim extremist made history by the callousness of his murders and by forcing French police and security forces to conduct the biggest and longest siege in their history against a lone armed terrorist

Many mysteries surround the episode--both concerning the gunman and the methods used by French security to apprehend him. One applies to the official reporting of the incident and the many conflicting accounts, some of them coming from the French minister of interior Claude Guiant.

Another relates to the unnamed man who entered the killer’s apartment on a quiet Toulouse street some time Wednesday. Was he sent for some face-to-face bargaining with Merah on terms for ending the siege?

There were powerful explosions around the apartment over midnight Wednesday and sustained gunfire from various weapons just before the terrorist was officially reported to be dead. None were explained.

One reason for the dragging out the police assault on the apartment may have been that the occupant had not only barricaded himself with basic supplies of food, water, medicines and ammo, but also booby-trapped the entrance ready to strike down a large number of raiders while he remained unharmed.

The apartment may have been rigged as a fortified chamber for a long haul.
In that and other respects, he may fit the model of an Iron Man, a terrorist prototype and Salafi extremist who drives fast cars and motorbikes, enjoys the good life, is at ease with electronic gadgets and used a high tech video camera from a Formula One car to record his murderous rampage in high resolution for propaganda and posterity.

Youthful copycat admirers in jihadist circles will no doubt emulate the Merah style.
Another unanswered riddle is who bankrolled this high-end style and his operations?

One of the big questions facing the French president and security authorities is what took them so long – a day and a half - to raid the apartment? If their plan was to capture him alive to grill him for intelligence on al Qaeda networks, they failed.

Why did they not use stun grenades or a special gas to paralyze him in the initial stage or after the doors were breached? French counterterrorism units are adept in the use of a special gas designed over 40 years ago and were the first to use it.

debkafile’s counter-terror sources recall that in November 1979, when the Saudi royal family was unable to put down a revolt against the throne, they asked urgently for a French counterterrorism unit to break the siege the rebels had laid on the Kaaba mosque in Mecca, Islam’s most sacred shrine. The unit poured gas into the ancient underground passages and forced the rebels to surrender.

debkafile reported Wednesday, March 21:

Questions are already being asked about how French intelligence and counter-terror agencies, which had held him and family members under surveillance for some time, failed to discover the deadly plans they were hatching against Jewish and Moslem targets.

Mohammed Merah said he had trained in Afghanistan and Pakistan, both of which countries he visited in 2010 and 2011. A Kandahar prison official identified him as an al Qaeda bomber who was imprisoned for three years and escaped in a mass Taliban jailbreak in 2008, only to be rearrested and sent back to France

Toulouse police hunted him down to an address 2 kilometers from the Ozar Hatorah school where he committed his murders after identifying him as the motorcyclist in black who also killed two French paratroopers and wounded a third in neighboring Montauban last Thursday.

Merah fell under police suspicion after that attack but was not arrested. He was active in the extremist Islamic organization called Forsane Alizze which was only outlawed in February although it was long identified with al Qaeda.

The terrorist called French TV stations after the attacks and said he had avenged French participation in the Afghan war, the suffering of Gaza Palestinians and the Sarkozy government’s ban on the veil in public places for Muslim women. He had videotaped his murders to further propagate their impact.

The Jewish teacher, Yonathan Sandler, 30, his sons Arieh, 3 and Gavriel, 6 and the Ozar Hatorah principal’s daughter, Miriam Monstango, aged 8, whom he shot dead Monday at the Jewish school, were laid to rest at the Har Menuhot cemetery in Jerusalem Wednesday attended by masses of people and notables.

French Foreign Minister Alain Juppe flew to Israel with the victims and attended the funerals as a mark of French-Israeli solidarity in the face of he terrible murders. "Never doubt our determination to fight anti-Semitism in France which violates all our values and will not be tolerated," he declared.

The dawn raid in Toulouse was accompanied by security police swoops on extremist Muslim hideouts across France.

 

[The Flying Dutchman]

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March 22, 2012 12:00 A.M.

‘Destroy All the Churches’

Is it not news when the leading Saudi
religious authority says that to terrorists?

By Clifford D. May
http://www.nationalreview.com/articles/294112/destroy-all-churches-clifford-d-may​

Imagine if Pat Robertson called for the demolition of all the mosques in America. It would be front-page news. It would be on every network and cable-news program. There would be a demand for Christians to denounce him, and denounce him they would — in the harshest terms. The president of the United States and other world leaders would weigh in, too. Rightly so.

So why is it that when Abdulaziz ibn Abdullah Al al-Sheikh, the grand mufti of the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia, declares that it is “necessary to destroy all the churches in the Arabian Peninsula,” the major media do not see this as even worth reporting? And no one, to the best of my knowledge, has noted that he said this to the members of a terrorist group.

Here are the facts: Some members of the Kuwaiti parliament have been seeking to demolish churches or at least prohibit the construction of new ones within that country’s borders. So the question arose: What does sharia, Islamic law, have to say about this issue?

A delegation from Kuwait asked the Saudi grand mufti for guidance. He replied that Kuwait is part of the Arabian Peninsula — and that any churches on the Arabian Peninsula should indeed be destroyed, because the alternative would be to approve of them. The grand mufti explained: “The Prophet (peace be upon him) commanded us, ‘Two religions shall not coexist in the Arabian Peninsula,’ so building [churches] in the first place is not valid because this peninsula must be free from [any other religion].” In Saudi Arabia, of course, non-Islamic houses of worship were banned long ago, and non-Muslims are prohibited from setting foot in Mecca and Medina.

There’s more: The inquiring Kuwaitis were from the Revival of Islamic Heritage Society (RIHS). That sounds innocent enough, but a little digging by Steve Miller, a researcher at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies, revealed that ten years ago the RIHS branches in Afghanistan and Pakistan were designated by the United Nations as associates of — and providers of funds and weapons to — “Al-Qaida, Usama bin Laden or the Taliban.”

The U.S. government has gone farther, also designating RIHS headquarters in Kuwait as “providing financial and material support to al Qaida and al Qaida affiliates, including Lashkar e-Tayyiba” which was “implicated in the July 2006 attack on multiple Mumbai commuter trains, and in the December 2001 attack against the Indian Parliament.” Such activities have caused RIHS offices to be “closed or raided by the governments of Albania, Azerbaijan, Bangladesh, Bosnia-Herzegovina, Cambodia, and Russia.”

This should be emphasized: Al al-Sheikh is not the Arabian equivalent of some backwoods Florida pastor. He is the highest religious authority in Saudi Arabia, where there is no separation of mosque and state, and the state religion is the ultra-orthodox/fundamentalist reading of Islam known as Wahhabism. He also is a member of the country’s leading religious family.

In other words, his pronouncements represent the official position of Saudi Arabia — a country that, we have been told time and again, changed course after 9/11 and is now our ally and solidly in the anti-terrorism camp.

None of this might have come to light at all had it not been for Raymond Ibrahim, the Shillman fellow at the David Horowitz Freedom Center and an associate fellow at the Middle East Forum. He was the first to call attention to the grand mufti’s remarks, based on reports from three Arabic-language websites, Mideast Christian News, Linga Christian Service, and Asrare, also a Christian outlet. It occurred to me that perhaps these not entirely disinterested sources had misunderstood or exaggerated. So I asked Miller, who reads Arabic, to do a little more digging. Calls to the State Department’s Saudi desk and the Saudi embassy proved fruitless, but he did find the mufti’s comments reported in a well-known Kuwaiti newspaper, Al-Anba, on March 11.





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[The Flying Dutchman]

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Mali soldiers say seize power, close borders

By REUTERS
Published: Mar 22, 2012 17:32
http://arabnews.com/world/article592292.ece​

BAMAKO: Renegade Malian soldiers declared on state television on Thursday they had seized power in the West African state in protest at the government’s failure to quell a nomad-led rebellion in the north.

Former colonial power France said it was suspending security cooperation with Mali and urged constitutional order to be reestablished promptly, a call echoed by the European Union.

The coup has been fronted by soldiers of the rank of captain or lower and, if successful, will add a new layer of insecurity to a Saharan region battling Al-Qaeda agents and a flood of weapons trafficked from Libya since the fall of Muammar Qaddafi.

The army has for weeks appealed to the government for better weapons to fight the northern Tuareg rebels, now bolstered by heavily armed ethnic allies who fought on Qaddafi’s side last year but have returned to Mali.

Members of the newly formed National Committee for the Return of Democracy and the Restoration of the State (CNRDR) read a statement after heavy weapons fire rang out around the presidential palace in the capital Bamako throughout the night.

“The CNRDR ... has decided to assume its responsibilities by putting an end to the incompetent regime of Amadou Toumani Toure,” said Lt. Amadou Konare, spokesman for the CNRDR.

“We promise to hand power back to a democratically elected president as soon as the country is reunified and its integrity is no longer threatened,” Konare, flanked by about two dozen soldiers, said in a statement marred by sound problems.

A subsequent statement by Captain Amadou Sanogo, described as president of the CNRDR, declared an immediate curfew “until further notice.” Little is known about Sanogo except that he is an instructor at a military training college.

The CNRDR declared all land and air borders shut, but it was impossible to verify whether the mutiny had sufficient support to seal off a country twice the size of France and with seven neighbors. Earlier a Reuters reporter said Bamako airport had been shut down by local police rather than renegade soldiers.

While no deaths were reported, an official at the Gabriel Toure hospital in central Bamako said around 20 people had been admitted with bullet wounds, with some in a serious condition.

Government and military sources told Reuters the mutineers entered the presidential palace overnight after it was vacated by Toure and his entourage. A defense ministry source said Toure - a 63-year-old former coup leader due to step down after April polls - was in a safe location but his whereabouts were unknown.

His decade-long rule has been among the most stable in the region. But the gold- and cotton-producer has struggled to contain a northern rebellion in which dozens have been killed and nearly 200,000 civilians have fled their homes.

UN Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon called for calm and for grievances to be settled democratically. The African Union said it was “deeply concerned by the reprehensible acts currently being perpetrated by some elements of the Malian army.”

Foreign Minister Alain Juppe said in a statement France was suspending some security cooperation with Mali.

“We will maintain our aid to the population, particularly food aid, and we will continue our efforts in the fight against terrorism,” Juppe said. Along with the United States, France has sought to bolster efforts by regional governments to combat local Al-Qaeda agents.

Investor nerves over Mali’s gold sector - a key export earner for the country - sent shares in London-listed miner Randgold Resources down 15 percent, despite a company statement that its operations there were not affected.

Sporadic heavy weapons and tracer fire rang out in Bamako through the night and the mutineers, who say they lack the arms and resources to face the separatist insurgency in the Sahara, temporarily forced the state broadcaster off air.

As day broke, a Reuters correspondent saw soldiers shooting in the air on the streets of Bamako where, despite the curfew, there were a number of motorists and motorcyclists.

“The people are with the (mutinous) soldiers,” said one Bamako resident, Adama Tiarra. “We want a government that can sort things out,” he added. Others, however, said they were firmly against the attempt to unseat Toure’s government.

In a sign of the breadth of the army mutiny, two military sources in the northern town of Gao confirmed the arrests of several senior officers in the town, a regional operations center for the military.

A military source said a trigger for the mutiny was a visit on Wednesday by the defense minister to a barracks in the town of Kati about 20 km (13 miles) north of Bamako.

“The minister went to speak to troops but the talks went badly and people were complaining about the handling of the crisis in the north,” the source said.

A defense ministry official who was at the meeting said a soldier accused the minister of not giving them means to fight the rebels. Soldiers then began throwing rocks at the minister before taking weapons from the armory and shooting in the air.

Tuareg fighters seeking to carve out a desert homeland in Mali’s north have made advances in recent weeks, including the seizure this month of the key garrison town of Tessalit by the Algerian border.






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[OldArcher]

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800 Nuclear Triggers Smuggled to Israel,
Mastermind Untouchable - Secret FBI Files

PR Newswire – 41 mins ago...
To: FOREIGN AND STATE EDITORS
http://news.yahoo.com/800-nuclear-t...-mastermind-untouchable-secret-143608454.html​

WASHINGTON, March 22, 2012 /PRNewswire-USNewswire/ -- The following is being released by the Institute for Research: Middle Eastern Policy:

An espionage ring smuggled 800 krytons to the Israeli Ministry of Defense for use in the clandestine Israeli nuclear weapons program according to newly declassified FBI files. The secret documents were originally scheduled for public release in the year 2036, but were obtained under appeal to the Justice Department by the Institute for Research: Middle Eastern Policy (IRmep). The documents available online at http://www.IRmep.org/ila/krytons reveal new details about the failed effort to indict the nuclear smuggling ring's masterminds.

A kryton is a gas-filled tube used as a high-speed switch. Their export requires a U.S. State Department munitions license because they can be used as triggers for nuclear weapons. The U.S. government rejected several requests for kryton export licenses to Israel. California-based MILCO International Inc. shipped 15 orders totaling 800 krytons through an intermediary to the Israeli Ministry of Defense between 1979 and 1983. Heli Trading Company, owned by Israeli movie producer Arnon Milchan, brokered the transactions with MILCO.

The FBI file reveals that after the illicit kryton exports were discovered, a U.S. attorney tried to flip MILCO President Richard Kelly Smyth to implicate Milchan during intense plea bargaining. The gambit failed, and in May 1984 Smyth was indicted on 30 counts of smuggling and making false statements. Smyth and his wife promptly fled the US until extradited from Spain by Interpol in 2001. Milchan denied any involvement.

In 1985 a federal grand jury was convened in Los Angeles to investigate related Atomic Energy Act and Arms Export Control Act violations, but no charges were ever filed against Milchan or those who covered Smyth's living expenses abroad. The FBI records reveal intense interest in Milchan into the mid-1990s. In 1992, a confidential informant apparently relayed new details of Milchan's ties to Smyth. The declassified but heavily redacted "secret" communications reveal the FBI's review of Milchan's 1996 entry in Who's Who, close relations with Israeli leaders Shimon Peres and Benjamin Netanyahu, and news clippings.

A 2011 biography titled Confidential: The Life of Secret Agent Turned Hollywood Tycoon Arnon Milchan claims that Milchan was recruited into Israel's LAKAM economic espionage unit in his 20s and became a key operative for Benjamin Blumberg and Rafi Eitan. Blumberg was the head of LAKAM. Eitan infiltrated the Nuclear Materials and Equipment Corporation NUMEC in 1968 and later handled convicted spy Jonathan Pollard.






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Thanks, Dutch! Great story!

800 Krytons! WOW!!!

That's a great score! No wonder Sam Cohen told me not to worry about Israel! Couldn't have gone to a better place!

OA, out...

 

[The Flying Dutchman]

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China, Russia Voice "US In Iran" Ire

Submitted by Tyler Durden
03/22/2012 14:39 -0400
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/china-russia-voice-us-iran-ire​

In a number of stories in China's top newspapers today, the US has been slammed for its moves to restrict Iran's oil trade which could see Chinese banks sanctioned. As The People's Daily noted, Hong Lei (a Foreign Ministry spokesperson) warned such unilateral action was not only wrong but could exacerbate the stand-off over Iran's nuclear program. Arguing that China 'imports oil based on its economic development needs' without violating relevant resolutions of the UN Security Council and undermining the third party's and international community's interests, he noted China will not accept the practice of saddling unilateral sanctions on the third country.

Adding to this, China Daily notes the typical UN blah-dom of Wang Min's comments of the "more pragmatic importance to be firmly committed to dialogue and negotiations in order to properly solve the Iranian nuclear issue". While China is clearly 'disappointed' in the US efforts, Russia turns the dial to 11 with its comments that the US efforts are inflaming, as Russia's Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said Tuesday, "Scientists in nearly all countries....are convinced that strikes may slow down the Iranian nuclear program. But they will never cancel it, close it down or eliminate it" warning that Iran will have no option but to develop nuclear weapons should the US strike. Well you can't please all the people all the time eh? Just ask Ben.

Strikes May Force Iran To Develop Nuclear Weapons​

MOSCOW - Strikes on Iran's nuclear sites may force it to develop nuclear weapons and trigger more risks to the non-proliferation regime, Russia's Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said Tuesday.

"Scientists in nearly all countries....are convinced that strikes may slow down the Iranian nuclear program. But they will never cancel it, close it down or eliminate it," Lavrov said in an interview with the radio Kommersant FM.

He warned that Iran may have no option but to develop nuclear weapons in response to the strikes.

"Even the CIA and other US agencies admit now there is no information to confirm the political decision of the Iranian administration to produce nuclear weapons. I am almost confident that such a decision will be made after strikes on Iran," Lavrov said.

"Actually, this aggressiveness creates more risks to the non-proliferation regime than strengthens it," he said.

Russia has called for the resumption of negotiations between Iran and major mediators including Russia, US, France, Britain, China and Germany.

China Legally Imports Iranian Oil​

BEIJING, March 21 (Xinhua) -- China legally imports oil from Iran through normal channels in a reasonable and fair manner, a Foreign Ministry spokesman said on Wednesday.

Spokesman Hong Lei said China imports oil based on its economic development needs without violating relevant resolutions of the UN Security Council and undermining the third party's and international community's interests.

"China opposes any country implementing unilateral sanctions on the other country according to its domestic law," the spokesman said, adding that China will not accept the practice of saddling unilateral sanctions on the third country.


Hong made the remark at a daily press briefing when asked to comment on Secretary of State Hillary Clinton's announcement on Iran sanctions.

Clinton issued a statement on Tuesday saying that the U.S. will initially exempt Japan and 10 European nations from its new tough sanctions on Iran, saying these countries have "significantly" reduced their oil imports from the Islamic republic, according to reports.

Clinton said she would report to Congress that sanctions will not apply to the financial institutions in these countries for a renewable period of 180 days.

The 10 European beneficiaries are Belgium, Britain, the Czech Republic, France, Germany, Greece, Italy, the Netherlands, Poland and Spain.

Twelve countries including China, India and the Republic of Korea should reduce oil imports from Iran before the end of July or face sanctions, according to reports.





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[The Flying Dutchman]

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Navy’s Tiniest Warships Could Lead Assault on Iran

By David
March 22, 2012 | 2:39 pm
http://www.wired.com/dangerroom/201...+wired/index+(Wired:+Index+3+(Top+Stories+2))​

If the U.S. Navy goes to war against Iran, its tiniest ships could play the biggest role. Diminutive minesweepers and coastal patrol boats are being upgraded, rearmed and pushed to the maritime front line in the Persian Gulf. Which is kind of ironic: the bigger-is-better Navy has been trying to get rid of the warships for years.

Small ships have never really been the Navy’s thing. Tasked with deploying all over the world, far from its U.S. shipyards, the Navy prefers big vessels capable of carrying lots of fuel and supplies and taking a beating on long ocean crossings. The average size of an American destroyer has more than doubled since the early 1990s, now tipping the scales at 9,000 tons displacement.

But small ships have an edge in certain situations. For one, they can safely sail in shallow waters and get closer to an enemy’s coastline. These advantages didn’t stop the Navy from planning to replace a few dozen patrol boats and minesweepers, each weighing in at just 1,000 tons, Littoral Combat Ships that were three times the weight. Over the years the Navy gave away several of its patrol boats to The Philippines and the Coast Guard. In 2006 and 2007 the sailing branch decommissioned half its minesweepers, even though they were barely 10 years old. The remaining small ships weren’t expected to stick around much longer.

But LCS has been delayed by mismanagement, cost overruns and design problems, sparing the tiny vessels for the time being. The Navy should count itself lucky. The small ships it was trying to replace are now getting new weapons and sensors for a potential fight against Iran.


Iran has developed “swarm” tactics using large numbers of speedboats or drones to overwhelm ships’ defenses. Cheap, powerful underwater mines are another of Tehran’s favorite weapons. The Navy decided its 13 Cyclone-class patrol boats and 14 Avenger-class minesweepers were the best countermeasures.

Under a crash program valued at $4 million, the Cyclones — five of which are permanently stationed in Bahrain — are getting a new laser targeting system for their twin 25-millimeter cannons. The Mk-38 laser kit gives the “high-precision accuracy against surface and air targets such as small boats and unmanned aerial system,” according to contractor BAE Systems.

Four Avengers are in Bahrain, with another four on the way. They’re getting new mine-neutralizing robots for Iran duty.

In a sense, the surge of small warships is the belated fulfillment of a long-abandoned vision for the future fleet. Theory, war games and formal studies in the late 1990s supported a major expansion of the Navy’s small-ship fleet. Vice Adm. Art Cebrowski, head of the Naval War College, recommended the Navy develop a heavily-armed, 1,000-ton warship he called “Streetfighter.”

“These smaller, more single-purpose warships are the capital ships of a 21st-century fleet,” said Wayne Hughes, a retired Navy captain teaching at the Naval Postgraduate School.

But “Big Navy” hated the idea of small ships taking funding that could be used for larger vessels. The Streetfighter concept got hijacked and corrupted. It ballooned into the current Littoral Combat Ship, which is three times the size of Streetfighter.

It’s not clear whether the small-ship surge in Iran represents a permanent change in the Navy’s attitude toward the tiny combatants. Once the Iran crisis has passed, the Navy could shift right back into its big-ship mindset.





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[The Flying Dutchman]

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Gas could hit $8 a gallon in early 2013

By Blaze Bullock, Deseret News

Published: Thursday, March 22 2012 12:40 p.m. MDT
http://www.deseretnews.com/article/865552664/Gas-could-hit-8-a-gallon-in-early-2013.html​

As high as gas prices currently are, they could double in early 2013, to $8 a gallon across the nation.

Gas prices could get as high as $8 a gallon if Iran closes the Strait of Hormuz to oil tanker traffic, an energy-consulting firm told USA Today.

Gas prices could get as high as $8 a gallon if Iran closes the Strait of Hormuz to oil tanker traffic, an energy consulting firm told USA Today.

Crude oil prices could get as high as $240 a barrel in the first fiscal quarter of next year, Sara Johnson, senior research director of global economics at HIS Global Insight, told USA Today. In the U.S., crude oil for West Texas Intermediate closed just over $107 a barrel on Wednesday. Crude oil would probably climb to around $160 a barrel in the second quarter, and then drop down to $120.

IHS predicted that such a jump in gas prices might result in lines at the pump, and could slow economic growth across the globe next year, according to USA Today. The global economy has been forecast to grow at a rate of 3.6 percent, but the rise in oil prices could make that number shrink to 2.6 percent.

Even though closing the strait might not be in Iran's best interest, Iran may close it in reaction to pressure from the U.S. to discontinue its nuclear weapons development, Farid Abolfathi, senior director of the HIS Risk Center, told USA Today.





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[The Flying Dutchman]

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NYPD says Iranian spies conducted 'hostile
reconnaissance' of New York City landmarks

New York, Mar 22 :
http://www.newkerala.com/news/2011/worldnews-176673.html​

The New York Police Department (NYPD) has claimed that Iranian spies have conducted 'hostile reconnaissance' of the New York city landmarks and infrastructure on at least six occasions since 2002.

NYPD Director of Intelligence Analysis Mitchell Silber said that the department has interviewed at least 13 individuals associated with the Iranian government who were caught suspiciously videotaping or photographing the subway tracks in Grand Central Station, the Brooklyn Bridge, and the Wall Street Heliport.

Silber said that New York City's international significance and large Jewish presence makes it "the most likely venue for global tensions with Iran to spill over onto American soil."

"A terrorist attack by Iran or [the Iranian-backed terror group] Hizbollah in New York City could serve as retaliation for real or perceived US support or involvement in military action against Iran's nuclear facilities or against its regime," The New York Post quoted Silber, as saying.

Silber stressed that the NYPD has been studying the modus operandi in Iranian-linked attacks, from the 1992 and 1994 bombings on Jewish targets in Argentina to 2012 attacks in India and Thailand.

"Iran has a proven record of using its official presence in a foreign city to coordinate attacks, which are then carried out by Hizbollah agents from abroad, often leveraging the local community -- whether wittingly or not -- as facilitators," he said.

Silber said the NYPD was remaining vigilant to prevent any Iranian-linked terrorist activities in the nation's largest city. (ANI)





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[momof23goats]

How can we have any kind of peace or even talks with nations that say all churches must be distroyed ? It seems we should run the other way, far away, would be what the western world should do one would think.

the nuke triggers couldn't have gone to a better place.

 

[The Flying Dutchman]

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Missing Nukes Fuel Terror Concern
as Seoul Meeting Draws Obama

By Jonathan Tirone - Mar 22, 2012 10:00 AM CT
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-...ror-concern-as-seoul-meeting-draws-obama.html​

The second global conference ever on nuclear material that has escaped state control is drawing President Barack Obama and Russian President Dmitry Medvedev. Nuclear violators Iran and North Korea won’t be there.

The legacy of the Soviet Union’s breakup, inadequate atomic stockpile controls and the proliferation of nuclear-fuel technology mean the world may be awash with unaccounted-for weapons ingredients, ripe to be picked up by terrorists.

“If material is loose, it may already be impossible to contain or account for it,” said Graham Allison, director of Harvard University’s international security program and a former nuclear-security adviser to President Ronald Reagan. “There are no precise figures for how much high-enriched uranium or plutonium is missing.”

About 50 heads of state will attend the Nuclear Security Summit on March 26-27 in Seoul. Iran and North Korea, which are in violation of United Nations resolutions requiring them to halt their nuclear work, are among countries excluded from the summit because of organizers’ desire to reach consensus. So are potential transit countries such as Moldova and Lebanon that smugglers may target to move nuclear material.

With security officials still seeking the most basic information about how much high-enriched uranium and plutonium has been lost or is unaccounted-for, leaders meeting in Seoul may have to settle for modest measures to protect their populations from the risk of a terrorist obtaining a nuclear weapon, Allison said. Even a small blast would cause enormous casualties and disrupt the world economy.

Dirty-Bomb Cost ​

A nuclear-armed terrorist attack on the U.S. port in San Jose, California, would kill 60,000 people and cost as much as $1 trillion in damage and cleanup, according to a 2006 Rand study commissioned by the Department of Homeland Security. Even a low-level radiological or dirty-bomb attack on Washington, while causing a limited number of deaths, would lead to damages of $100 billion, according to Igor Khripunov, the Soviet Union’s former arms-control envoy to the U.S. He is now at the Athens, Georgia-based Center for International Trade and Security.

Because a terrorist needs only about 25 kilograms of highly-enriched uranium or 8 kilograms of plutonium to improvise a bomb, the margin of error for material accounting is small. There are at least 2 million kilograms (4.4 million pounds) of stockpiled weapons-grade nuclear material left over from decommissioned bombs and atomic-fuel plants, according to the International Panel on Fissile Materials, a nonprofit Princeton, New Jersey research institute that tracks nuclear material.

That’s enough to make at least 100,000 new nuclear weapons on top of the 20,000 bombs already in weapon-state stockpiles.

‘Poorly Secured’ ​

“The elements of a perfect storm are gathering,” said former Democratic Senator Sam Nunn, founder of the Washington- based Nuclear Threat Initiative, in an e-mail. “There is a large supply of plutonium and highly enriched uranium-weapons- usable nuclear materials spread across hundreds of sites in 32 countries, too much of it poorly secured. There is also greater know-how to build a bomb widely available, and there are terrorist organizations determined to do it.”

Greenpeace, the anti-nuclear environmental group, has shown the ease with which intruders could breach security at Electricite de France SA reactors. Activists on Dec. 5 exposed lapses at EDF nuclear reactors near Paris and in southern France, hiding inside one for 14 hours and unfurling a banner reading “Safe Nuclear Doesn’t Exist” on the roof of another.

Invading Power Plants ​

Since then, EDF has reviewed existing barriers around reactor sites and added patrols with guard dogs and tasers, said Dominique Miniere, the company’s director of nuclear production. If saboteurs were to penetrate a reactor site and disable the power supply, creating a similar effect as when the tsunami struck the Fukushima Dai-Ichi plant in Japan last year, there would be a danger of the nuclear fuel rods melting and radioactive particles being released into the air.

Criminals breached South Africa’s Pelindaba nuclear facility in 2007, overpowering guards who oversaw the country’s stock of bomb-grade material. The U.S. Defense Threat Reduction Agency dismissed staff over nuclear security concerns in May 2008 at a North Dakota base that dispatched nuclear bombs without proper controls.

In November 2010, Belgian activists evaded North Atlantic Treaty Organization guards to expose weak security protecting nuclear weapons at a base in Kleine Brogel. Activists spent several hours taking pictures of a bunker containing nuclear warheads before security guards apprehended them.

Greatest Threat​

​

The Global Zero Initiative, whose U.S. arm is chaired by former nuclear negotiator Richard Burt, said in a report last month that the greatest nuclear security threat in Russia comes from bases in the country’s west that house tactical nuclear warheads targeting Europe. These bases provide inadequate security against theft or sabotage, according to the report, whose authors included Russian former arms-control negotiators.

At the end of the Cold War, the Soviet Union had about 22,000 nuclear weapons in storage in Russia and such satellite states as Armenia, Belarus, Kazakhstan and Ukraine. Allison says there are doubts that all the weapons-usable material was recovered when many warheads were repatriated and dismantled because of the chaos at the time and incomplete records.

About 100 grams of highly enriched uranium, lodged inside a nuclear fission chamber, was plucked out of a Rotterdam scrap- metal yard in 2009 by Jewometaal Stainless Processing BV’s radiation-safety chief, Paul de Bruin. The scrap probably came from a decommissioned Soviet nuclear facility, he said.

Low Detection Chance​

The discovery illustrated the ease with which nuclear material can bypass accounting checks and international radiation monitors. The shipment containing the uranium had already been checked for radioactivity.

“The inability to accurately account for weapon-usable nuclear material around the world is a major obstacle to eliminating the threat of nuclear terrorism,” said Edwin Lyman, a senior physicist at the Cambridge, Massachusetts-based Union for Concerned Scientists, on March 14. Plutonium can be smuggled from some facilities “without a high probability of detection,” he said.

One issue threatening to hobble the security summit is that all nations aren’t invited, wrote Burt, who is also a managing director at Washington’s McLarty Associates. He negotiated nuclear-weapons cuts with the Soviets under President George H.W. Bush.

IAEA Role​

Other countries that weren’t invited include Belarus, home to about 500 pounds of high-enriched uranium that the U.S. wants removed, and Niger, the West African nation falsely accused of supplying uranium to Iraq before the 2003 war over an alleged nuclear-weapons program. Organizers opted to keep participation narrow in 2010 to foster more substantive debate, South Korea’s International Atomic Energy Agency envoy, Cho Hyun, said in a March 15 interview.

By excluding some nuclear nations from the proceedings, the summit organizers risk undercutting the role of the Vienna-based IAEA, which verifies nuclear material worldwide.

“The summit’s lack of universality affects the ability of the IAEA to take a visible role in nuclear security,” said Cho, who was previously South Korea’s chief negotiator for U.S. nuclear agreements. “The IAEA has been playing an essential role in strengthening international efforts for nuclear security.”

Not Yet?​

The 153-member IAEA, whose powers are granted by consensus, has published guides and helped install detection equipment, in addition to making sure fissile material isn’t diverted for weapons in places like Iran. Lebanon asked the Vienna-based agency in 2008 to help install radiation monitors in Masnaa, along its border with Syria.

The IAEA declined more than 10 written and telephone requests for comment about its projects and how it improves nuclear security in the absence of summit participation among all of its members.

In the absence of binding oversight or an international verification treaty, Harvard’s Allison said he was surprised terrorists haven’t already used nuclear materials in an attack.

“There is general agreement in national security circles that” a dirty bomb attack “is long overdue,” he said. “Terrorists have known for a long time that nuclear reactors are potentially vulnerable to attack or sabotage.”

Other officials say the threat of nuclear terrorism should be taken seriously without being overplayed in public.

“Those of us who are ringing the nuclear terrorism alarm take care to not overstate the odds of such an attack,” former U.S. Energy Department Director of Intelligence Rolf Mowatt- Larssen wrote March 18 in an e-mail. “The population is also suffering from terror-warning fatigue.”

“Governments are only now beginning to think about how to raise nuclear security standards worldwide,” Washington-based Arms Control Association President Daryl Kimball said March 14. “Terrorists only need to exploit the weakest link in order to acquire nuclear material that could eventually lead to a detonation that would make the Fukushima disaster pale in comparison.”





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[The Flying Dutchman]

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US stopped Israel from attacking Iran, says report

March 23, 2012
http://gulftoday.ae/portal/cb4e55d3-6df0-481c-ab5b-b127fffe9348.aspx​

WASHINGTON: The United States offered Israel advanced weaponry in return for it committing not to attack Iran’s nuclear facilities this year, Israeli daily Maariv reported on Thursday.

Citing unnamed Western diplomats and intelligence sources, the report said that during Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s visit to Washington this week, the US administration offered to supply Israel with advanced bunker-busting bombs and long-range refuelling planes.

In return, Israel would agree to put off a possible attack on Iran till 2013, after the US elections in November. Israel and much of the international community fear Iran’s nuclear programme masks a weapons drive, a charge Tehran denies, and it was top of the agenda at talks between Netanyahu and US President Barack Obama in Washington this week.

The United States and Israel are at odds over just how immediate the Iranian threat is.

Netanyahu said on Monday that sanctions against Iran have not worked, and “none of us can afford to wait much longer.”

A key difference between Washington and Israel has emerged on the timeline available for a military strike against Iran, with Israel warning that the weaponry available to it gives it a shorter window for action.

In response, the report said, the US administration offered to give Israel weapons and material that could extend its window to act against Iran.

In particular, it would offer bunker-busting bombs more powerful than those currently possessed by Israel, which would allow it to target Iranian facilities even under solid rock.

Earlier this week, the Ynet website reported said that Israel Military Industries, one of the country’s leading weapons manufacturers, had upgraded its MPR-500 guided missiles, turning them into “bunker busters” capable of penetrating double-reinforced concrete walls and floors 200 millimetres thick.

But figures from a poll published on Thursday showed that almost six out of 10 Israelis were against the idea of a pre-emptive strike on Iran’s nuclear facilities without US backing.

The same poll, published by Haaretz newspaper, also found that over half of the respondents trusted Netanyahu and Defence Minister Ehud Barak to handle the Iran issue.






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[Housecarl]

For links see article source....
Posted for fair use.....
http://the-diplomat.com/2012/03/22/china’s-next-flashpoint/

China’s Next Flashpoint?
March 22, 2012
By Steven Borowiec
Comments 32

A dispute with South Korea over a remote reef has prompted a tense exchange of words between the two countries. There could be more to come.

It was named Socotra Rock when discovered by the British in 1900. It’s called Ieodo in South Korea, and Suyan Rock in China. Regardless of what it’s called, there usually isn’t much reason to discuss a reef that lays 149 kilometers from the nearest piece of South Korean territory and 247 kilometers from the closest part of China. But the area has the potential to become a flashpoint between two of Asia’s biggest economic and military powers.

Seoul summoned Chinese diplomats on March 12 to explain a remark made a few days earlier by a top Chinese official for maritime affairs. The official claimed that Socotra Rock falls in Chinese waters, and argued thatChinese vessels regularly patrol the area, making it rightly Chinese.

South Korean President Lee Myung-bak responded by claiming Socotra. Leetold reporters the same day that Socotra “fallsnaturally into South Korean-controlled areas.” He also noted the fact that the rocks are closer to South Korea than to China.

The basis for debate over Socotra is South Korea and China’s disagreement over maritime delineations in the area. The two countries insist on different Exclusive Economic Zones, and the disputed reef is located at the overlap of the two lines.

U.N. maritime law states that an EEZ extends 370 kilometers from a country's territory, although the U.N. Convention on the Law of the Sea states that a submerged reef can’t be claimed as territory by any country. Still, this hasn’t stopped China and South Korea from arguing over which country is entitled to administer the area.

One could ask why two large nations with plenty to keep themselves busy with are fighting over a set of rocks far out at sea. But in addition to likely being located in an area of oil and mineral deposits, the Socotra issue is connected to some serious political and military maneuvering taking place in the area.

South Korea is expanding its naval capabilities in the region. For example, on Jeju Island, not far from Socotra, the South Korean government is pushing ahead with the construction of a major naval base. Defense against China is believed to be the primary motivation for the base’s establishment. South Korea is also seeking a military presence nearer to Socotra and China, to strengthenits claims of control and provide a foothold in the event of conflict. Without a base on Jeju, South Korea’s navy must operate in the area from Incheon, nine hours to the north.

Amid virulent local protests that have seen multiple arrests, the government has begun blasting rock face in scenic areas of Jeju to make way for the base. Locals are for their part protesting damage to the idyllic local environment. (Jeju is home to a wide range of unique wildlife and fauna, and is said to have a special, peaceful atmosphere that would be compromised by a large military installation).

Still, flaws in the base’s design and construction have been pointed out by analysts, and the government is apparently rushing the construction ahead of next month’s election and China’s claim over Socotra. South Korea is also establishing an integrated regional defense missile system in the area, apparently with China in mind.

China, meanwhile, has expanded its navy as its economy and general global profile have grown. But its build-up around Socotra could set off an arms race with South Korea. China’s official military budget for 2010 was $78 billion, with some analysts suggesting that more than one-third of that is pegged for the People’s Liberation Army Navy (PLAN). The PLAN has taken a particular interest in the South China Sea and has boosted its presence, and some say claims, in the area in recent years. It is also an area of busy shipping lanes and one with strategic importance to China’s claim to Taiwan.

In addition, China has built a major base in Yalong Bay that hosts submarines capable of quickly moving throughout the area.

Unsurprisingly, all this has meant that vessels from the two countries have already clashed in the area. South Korea has felt pressure to expand its Coast Guard and naval fleets in the Yellow Sea after violent clashes with Chinese fishing vessels in 2011. On December 12, a South Korean Coast Guard officer was stabbed to death by a Chinese fisherman who was fishing illegally in South Korean waters. That was only the bloodiest in a series of similar incidents.

China is South Korea’s leading trading partner, and the two countries are expected to begin discussions of a free trade agreement over the next couple of months. But they’ve already experienced friction this month over North Korean defectors being held in China. South Korea has asked that the defectors be treated as a humanitarian issue, while China, considering the North Koreans economic migrants, is likely to repatriate them.

There’s still a chance for a peaceful resolution. At a news briefing on March 12, Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson Liu Weimin said that bilateral negotiations would be needed to confirm jurisdiction.

However, an official from South Korea’s Blue House stated: “We have no intention of allowing this to become a serious problem, based on the fact that Ieodo naturally falls under our jurisdiction.” This approach echoes the South Korean line on the Dokdo islets dispute with Japan, implying that the rocks of course belong to the South and so there is no debate to be had.

Both countries are stubborn and ambitious, adding an additional layer of potential misunderstanding – or even conflict – in an already fraught part of the world.

Steven Borowiec is a freelance journalist who has reported for GlobalPost, the Toronto Star and the Guardian, among other publications.

Related Features

Coming Nuclear Flashpoint
Asia’s Next Flashpoint?
Time for Secret Talks with China
South Korea’s Misguided Pier Plan
Why US Needs South Korea Base

 

[Housecarl]

For links see article source....
Posted for fair use.....
http://the-diplomat.com/flashpoints-blog/2012/03/22/russia’s-anti-bmd-alliance/

Russia’s Anti-BMD Alliance?
By Andrew Riedy
March 22, 2012
Comments 14

Russia is seeking to form an ad-hoc “coalition of the willing” to delegitimize U.S. ballistic missile defense (BMD) plans and paint the United States as a major threat to global stability. As part of this strategy, Moscow is preparing an all-out information campaign that it’s expected to unveil at a conference in Moscow on May 3 to 4 to highlight what it sees as the real reason for NATO and U.S. plans to deploy ballistic missile defenses to Europe and expand cooperation with countries like India and Japan, namely tipping the strategic balance in favor of Western Powers.

Russia is hoping to form a consolidated political group to stand with it in opposing U.S. and NATO BMD deployments, and any such coalition is likely to include China. But there are dangers to bringing Beijing on board that Moscow has either not accounted for, or is at least willing to accept.

As Manpreet Sethi suggested this week, BMD has long been an irritant in the U.S.-Russian relationship. The issue was regulated until 2002 by the 1972 Anti-Ballistic Missile Treaty, but since the United States unilaterally withdrew from the treaty, the BMD question has been a major irritant in U.S.-Russian relations. The United States sees a growing ballistic missile threat from the Middle East and North Korea, while Russia insists that BMD could jeopardize all or part of its strategic nuclear deterrent, leaving it vulnerable. Both sides have invested heavily in their respective positions, and apparently see genuine threats to acquiescing, which has led to the current impasse in negotiations.

Moscow has recognized that it doesn’t have sufficient weight to alter U.S. considerations or materially affect BMD deployment plans, nor can it offer any meaningful contribution to the plans that the United States will accept. Russia has therefore made the calculation that in order slow or stop the advancement of missile defense, it will need to bring China on board by making the case that BMD will disrupt the global strategic balance, while also rendering China more vulnerable to U.S. military interference.

By most credible accounts, China has for its part a stockpile of around 240 warheads, with only about 175 deployed and even fewer that can reach the United States. But, China’s current nuclear arsenal isn’t what makes it an attractive member of a Russian-led anti-BMD coalition; it’s China’s concerns about U.S. force projection in its neighborhood combined with its potential for a future nuclear buildup. According to Jeffrey Lewis of the Center for Nonproliferation Studies, there’s “no theoretical limit” to the potential size of the Chinese nuclear arsenal, which he says means “China could build a 20,000 warhead force if they wanted to, given enough time.” China’s mastery of the nuclear fuel cycle and quickly growing defense budget would allow it to build sufficient forces to maintain deterrence in the presence of a robust BMD deployment.

Beijing’s stated position that a global missile defense program will be detrimental to strategic stability puts it in line with Russia and may well make Beijing a willing and useful partner. While no one seriously expects a nuclear strike from Russia, Chinese plans are more opaque, inviting some colorful speculation. But this lack of transparency is what may make the United States cautious.

Russia, on the other hand, has fewer options and faces greater constraints, financially and politically. Following a rough election season, Vladimir Putin is continuing with his plan to invest 23 trillion roubles (about $760 billion) in military armaments despite criticism from domestic experts who see the need to emphasize growth in other sectors of the economy. They argue that plans should be slowed as the current threat environment doesn’t require the nearly 400 planned land and sea-based ICBMS, 8 SSBNs, or 100 satellites designated for military use. Many observers argue that the money being spent on strategic systems could be put to better use addressing more immediate and real threats that the Russian state faces, such as continued violence in the Northern Caucasus, instability in Central Asia, and the need to prepare for possible repercussions from the upcoming NATO drawdown from Afghanistan.

Top Russian officials, on the other hand, still see the need to maintain nuclear parity with the United States, perceiving threats to their territorial integrity and energy resources from states that could be tempted to solve one’s problems at another’s expense. And yet it’s hard not to believe that stoking Chinese fears about U.S. BMD is a mistake. If China decides to pursue a significant long-term nuclear buildup in response to BMD, Russia could eventually be faced with an adversary much more dangerous, closer and energy-hungry.

It’s clear that among Russian officials, strategic nuclear parity with the U.S. is seen as the last vestige of superpower status left over from the Cold War. But while Moscow is understandably loath to see this disappear, its defense planners would be well advised to exercise caution and keep the PR campaign to a minimum. Building a coalition of the willing in an attempt to scare the United States out of BMD deployments could end up doing more harm than good.

Andrew Riedy is an Alfa Fellow and Visiting Scholar at the Carnegie Moscow Center. He specializes in Russian defense policy, strategic security, and nuclear proliferation.

Related Articles

Is U.S. Missile Defense Worth It?
Time to Cut Tactical Nukes?
Russia’s Submarine Woes
Russia’s Disappearing Subs
China’s Anti-Access Missile

 

[Housecarl]

For links see article source...
Posted for fair use....
http://www.longwarjournal.org/threat-matrix/archives/2012/03/jund_al_khilafah_claims_french.php

Jund al Khilafah claims French shooting
By Bill Roggio
March 22, 2012 12:10 PM
Comments 1

Jund al Khilafah, or Soldiers of the Caliphate, an al Qaeda and Haqqani Network-linked terror group that is based along the Afghan-Pakistani border, claimed credit for one of the shootings attributed to Mohamed Merah, a French citizen and resident of Toulouse who was killed in a shootout by French police earlier today after a two-day-long standoff. The terror group released a statement today that was published on several jihadist web forums. A portion of the statement, translated by the SITE Intelligence Group, is below:

On Tuesday, 19 March, one of the knights of Islam, our brother Yusuf al-Firansi [the French], we ask Allah to accept him, went out in an operation that shook the foundations of Zio-Crusaderdom in the whole world and filled the hearts of the enemies of Allah with fear. While we claim our responsibility for these blessed operations, we say that the crimes that Israel is committing against our people in the pure land of Palestine, and in Gaza in particular, will not pass without punishment. The mujahideen everywhere are determined to retaliate for every drop of blood that was spilled unjustly and aggressively in Palestine, Afghanistan, and other Muslim countries.

The Jund al Khilafah statement also said the French must reconsider their "hostile tendency towards Islam and its Shariah" - a reference to their deployment of forces in Afghanistan as well as the ban on the veil for women in public places in France. The Jund al Khilafah statement did not, however, take credit for the other shootings carried out by Merah that killed three French soldiers.

Interestingly enough, SITE noted that the Shumukh al-Islam forum, which is linked to al Qaeda and is a primary means of distribution for al Qaeda and other jihadist materials, pulled the statement from its website. "The communiqué offered no evidence to substantiate the claim of responsibility but was posted by the same user who posted prior messages from the group," the SITE Intelligence Group stated.

Merah is known to have spent time in both Afghanistan and Pakistan, and is said to have attended training camps in Waziristan, so it is possible that he interacted with Jund al Khilafah in the past. However there is no evidence available to confirm that this has happened, nor has there been any indication at this time that Merah went by the name Yusuf al Firansi.

Jund al Khilafah has claimed credit for three attacks in Kazakhstan last fall, and has also released two videos of attacks against ISAF forces in Khost province, Afghanistan last year. For more information on the Jund al Khilafah, see LWJ report, Kazakh jihadi leader seeks restoration of Islamic caliphate.

Last November, Rawil Kusaynuv, the emir of the Zahir Baibars Battalion, one of the units that comprises the Jund al Khilafah, said his battalion has "a group of mujahideen of different nationalities" but is primarily made up of Kazakh nationals.

"As for us in the Battalion, more than 90% of us are from Kazakhstan, and we have many military activities on the fighting lines in Afghanistan in collaboration with the rest of the battalions," he said. "We are also interested in the military, faith, intellectual, and political support for our brothers in order for them to rise to an acceptable level of ability to wage the fight."

 

[Housecarl]

For links see article source.....
Posted for fair use.....
http://www.atimes.com/atimes/Korea/NC22Dg01.html

Korea
Mar 22, 2012
North Korea launches satellite of love
By Kim Myong Chol
Comments 7

To mark the the 100th anniversary of founding father Kim Il-sung's birth, the Kim Jong-eun administration has scheduled the spectacular launch of an earth observation satellite that will present the world with a spatial chorus of The Song of Marshal Kim Il-sung and Happy Birthday to You.

The Korean Committee for Space Technology announced on March 16 that the Democratic People's Republic of Korea (North Korea) will send Kwangmyongsong-3, a polar-orbiting satellite, into space atop a much improved launch vehicle, the Unha-3. The launch date will fall between April 12-16, with the southerly direction of the launch from the Sohae (West Sea) Launching Station in Cholsan County, North Phyongan, in sharp contrast with easterly direction of two previous satellite launches.

As an official noted in state media: "A safe flight orbit has been chosen so that carrier rocket debris to be generated during the flight would not have any impact on neighboring countries."

The satellite launch is peaceful in every respect, and indisputably nothing to do with a missile test. It is a legitimate exercise by the DPRK of its inalienable sovereign right to peaceful exploration of outer use, universally shared by every member of the world community, including the US, China, Russia, Japan and France. No country, be it the US, Japan, South Korea, or any other Western nation, has any right to take issue with the satellite launch.

The world's youngest but most sophisticated statesman, Kim Jong-eun, has ordered the Korean Committee for Space Technology to invite a bevy of experienced foreign experts on space science and technology and journalists to observe the satellite liftoff at the country's ultra-modern satellite launch center.

There are two reasons for Kim Jong-eun's decision: One is to provide the promised maximum transparency for the launch and the other is to add to the festive nature of the celebratory event. Obviously, there is nothing to conceal about the peaceful satellite launch, which is anything but a long-range ballistic missile.

For the Korean people, Kim Il-sung was a sun-like figure and will remain so forever as Koreans believe they are the offspring of the sun. Astronomy and star-watching are part and parcel of a time-honored Korean tradition dating back to the ancient Korean kingdom of Koguryo.

Kwangmyongsong (Korean for guiding light or Polar Star) refers to the late Kim Jong-il. The name was given by the members of the anti-Japanese guerrilla army when he was born at a secret camp on snow-covered Mt Paekdu, expressing their desire that he would grow into a Korean "King David".

Unha is the Korean word for the Milky Way, but also refers to present Supreme Leader Kim Jong-eun as a heaven-sent statesman set to lead the ancestral Land of Morning Calm to millennium prosperity.

Pavlov's Dog-like response will spark nuclear test
The reaction of Washington, Tokyo and Seoul to the planned satellite launch could be called a Pavlov's dog-like conditioned response, or at best as that of a deer in the headlights.

Since the Americans took a non-hostile stance towards North Korea in the February 29 DPRK-US nuclear agreement, the first thing they should do in response to the announced satellite liftoff is to think twice and readily extend a gentleman-like warm congratulations to the North Koreans, as well as state their readiness to launch a satellite for a rendezvous flight in outer space.

They might have at least said, "You resilient and patriotic North Koreans deserve unreserved praise for being sticking with Kim Il-sung, Kim Jong-il and now with Kim Jong-eun. You have proved resourceful enough to build a carrier rocket and satellite, undeterred by our hostile policy and stringent sanction. Not to put too fine a point on it, we feel jealous of Kim Jong-eun."

Any US threat to invalidate the nuclear deal would only serve to make the Barack Obama administration look like a cranky dodo. It will also prompt the Kim Jong-eun administration to retract its promise to place a moratorium on nuclear and missile tests, suspend uranium enrichment, and give international inspectors access to the uranium enrichment plant.

The hostile response from Washington, Seoul and Tokyo to the launch comes across to the North Koreans as a vicious bid to spoil their the most important and sacred festival of the proud Korean nation and to weaken their monolithic cohesion and unity around the new administration of Kim Jong-eun.

The North Korean reaction will be prompt, involving additional nuclear tests and steps to consider a full-blast detonation of a thermonuclear device possibly in international waters near the Pacific and the Atlantic Oceans or in outer space far above the metropolitan US. International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) officials will not be allowed into North Korea any longer. Uranium enrichment will be resumed and expanded.

However, the last thing the Kim Jong-eun administration wants to see is the "leap-day" DPRK-US nuclear deal imperiled.

The polar-orbiting observation satellite, blasted into space in the presence of veteran foreign experts, will beam three messages far and wide while passing over all the points of the earth as a bright beacon.

Message One: Emergence as an economic power
Polar-orbiting Kwangmyongsong-3 will proudly herald and highlight North Korea as a new Asian economic tiger and a new member of the elite club of economic powers.

This event and the expected completion of a small light-water reactor can be defined as nothing short of a miracle, given the more than half-century of naked animosity with the US and the latter's criminalizing sanctions, which all have turned out to be counter-productive.

North Korea is a long-time member of the two other elite clubs of space and nuclear powers, and both the satellite and the heavy-lift carrier rocket were indigenously designed and assembled with engines and components built by domestically built complex multi-spindle machine tools.

Despite its much-ballyhooed economic success, South Korea is no closer to building its own satellite launch vehicles. They have failed miserably in launching satellites even with the use of imported carrier rockets from Russia. Most South Korean industrial products, such as nuclear reactors and TVs, are dependent on licensed foreign technology and imported components.

North Korea is one of the few industrial countries that can domestically produce supercomputers, hand-held PCs, flat TVs, smartphones, artillery pieces, tanks, all types of nuclear warheads, rocket engines and a full array of radars, portable light-water-reactors, all sets of sophisticated equipment for industrial plants, elevators, escalators and a wide range of musical instruments such as pianos, violins, accordions and medical instruments for cardiac surgery.

A few more successful satellite liftoffs will enable the North Koreans to use its powerful Unha carrier rockets to launch low-cost satellite launch services available to any interested client in the developing and the Western world.

North Korea will be ready to export low-cost small and portable light-water reactors, too, complete with a LEU plant to any interested country.

Message Two: Neutralization of the US is in sight
Regardless of US behavior, negative or affirmative, a successful satellite launch will go a long way towards neutralizing the US military presence in South Korea, which is the overriding obstacle to the negotiated coming together of North and South Korea under a bi-system reunification framework.

A successful satellite launch and subsequent US cancellation of the leap-day DPRK-US nuclear agreement will result in additional known nuclear and long-range missile testings and expansion of uranium enrichment operations by North Korea.

Soon the Americans will seriously consider asking to leave the Korean Peninsula on their own accord in an honorable manner and negotiate a peace treaty with the North Koreans with a mutual detargeting provision.

It will not be long before the US is convinced that North Korea has working nuclear devices and road-mobile, long-range means of delivery - and that they are not bluffing when they threaten to vaporize US cities.

Andrei Lankov of Kookmin University, Seoul, and Adjunct Research Fellow at the Australian National University, writes in his March 15 posting at the East Asia forum:

Right now such a deal is unacceptable to the American side though, as it looks like rewarding blackmail. Such a compromise would create a dangerous precedent: a rogue state will not only be allowed to flout international law with impunity; it will be rewarded too. But diplomats seldom face a choice between acceptable and unacceptable deals. More often than not, they have to choose between several unsavory, not to say morally dubious, options - and the North Korean program will continue apace if nothing is done. This will mean more nuclear devices of higher quality, the development of workable delivery systems and perhaps even a fully functioning uranium-production capability - not to mention the possibility of proliferation.

So, one might expect that sooner or later the US side will seriously consider the unconsiderable and start negotiating nuclear arms limitations, rather than nuclear arms disarmament. But this will take time - and perhaps a couple more nuclear tests, missile launches and some revelations about proliferation activity in the Middle East.

The Americans will relent as North Korea presents a convincingly strong case for their legitimate sovereign right to peaceful exploitation of outer space. A net result will be the withdrawal of US-initiated United Nations sanctions and US negotiations on a peace treaty and normalized bilateral relations between the two long-term adversaries.

Kim Jong-eun is on track to neutralizing and terminating the US military presence in South Korea, removing the foremost barrier to the territorial reintegration of the ancestral Land of Morning Calm.

Message Three: Beacon of reunification
In its third message, Kwangmyongsong-3 will serve as a beacon announcing to the South Korean people and the rest of the world that Kim Jong-eun has seized the initiative in paving the honorable exit for the US forces from the Korean Peninsula and come within striking distance of having North and South Korea reunited under a bi-system formula in a peaceful fashion.

The bi-system reunification involves Pyongyang and Seoul retaining their respective socio-political and economic systems and conceding national defense and diplomacy to a federal government.

The Kim Jong-eun administration is ready to join hands with anyone who upholds the two historic documents and work for a negotiated territorial reintegration of the ancestral land. Commitment to the two landmark declarations is a safe guarantee of long-term prosperity of the Land of Morning Calm.

Any hard-line attempt to confront the North Korean administration is lost labor. To expect that North Korea will fall apart under heavy international pressure is like an attempt to lasso twinkling stars.

There will be little doubt left in the eye of the South Korean people that Kim Jong-eun has what it takes be another super-Kim Il Sung, as the world's youngest national leader is about to complete a challenge of Sisyphean proportions in a creditable way, taming for once and for all the American military presence.

Kim Jong-eun, Kim Jong-il and Kim il-Sung resoundingly outwitted the three US administrations of Bill Clinton, George W Bush and Barack Obama. This gave the North a much-needed pretext to cross into a zone of immunity. Through diplomatic outmaneuvering, North Korea gained a total of 20 years, more than enough to wade through an economic shambles, build affluence and develop and test thermonuclear weapons and their intercontinental means of delivery

As Leonid Petrov, lecturer in Korean studies at the University of Sydney, said to the Guardian on March 16, Kim Jong-eun is achieving two goals with the satellite launch:

"They are trying to kill two birds with one stone - keeping North Koreans proud and elated while the US has no particular reason to protest since inspectors are going to be admitted to nuclear facilities [under the recent deal]."

Kim Myong Chol is author of a number of books and papers in Korean, Japanese and English on North Korea, including Kim Jong-il's Strategy for Reunification. He has a PhD from the Democratic People's Republic of Korea's Academy of Social Sciences and is often called an "unofficial" spokesman of Kim Jong-il and North Korea.

(Copyright 2012 Kim Myong Chol.)

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Pie in the sky, Pyongyang style
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[Border guard]

So, who's running the "store"? - BG

http://blog.foreignpolicy.com/posts/2012/03/21/chinese_coup_watching
Chinese coup watching
Posted By Isaac Stone Fish Wednesday, March 21, 2012 - 4:16 PM Share

Last week, controversial politician Bo Xilai, whose relatively open campaigning for a seat on China's top ruling council shocked China watchers (and possibly his elite peers, as well), was removed from his post as Chongqing's party secretary. He hasn't been seen since. Rumors of a coup, possibly coordinated by Bo's apparent ally Zhou Yongkang, are in the air.

Western media has extensively covered the political turmoil: Bloomberg reported on how coup rumors helped spark a jump in credit-default swaps for Chinese government bonds; the Wall Street Journal opinion page called Chinese leadership transitions an "invitation, sooner or later, for tanks in the streets." The Financial Times saw the removal of Bo, combined with Premier Wen Jiabao's strident remarks at a press conference hours before Bo's removal as a sign the party was moving to liberalize its stance on the Tiananmen square protests of 1989. That Bo staged a coup is extremely unlikely, but until more information comes to light, we can only speculate on what happened.

Reading official Chinese media response about Bo makes it easy to forget how much Chinese care about politics. The one sentence mention in Xinhua, China's official news agency, merely says that Bo is gone and another official, Zhang Dejiang, is replacing him. But the Chinese-language Internet is aflame with debate over what happened to Bo and what it means for Chinese political stability.

Mainland media sites have begun to strongly censor discussion of Bo Xilai and entirely unsubstantiated rumors of gunfire in downtown Beijing (an extremely rare occurance in Beijing). Chinese websites hosted overseas, free from censorship, offer a host of unsupported, un-provable commentary on what might have happened in the halls of power. Bannedbook.org, which provides free downloads of "illegal" Chinese books, posted a long explanation of tremors in the palace of Zhongnanhai, sourced to a "person with access to high level information in Beijing," of a power struggle between President Hu Jintao, who controls the military, and Zhou, who controls China's formidable domestic security apparatus. The Epoch Times, a news site affiliated with the Falun Gong spiritual movement (which banned in China), has published extensively in English and Chinese about the coup.

Speculation is rife: A Canadian Chinese news portal quoted Deutsche Welle quoting the Hong Kong newspaper Apple Daily quoting a netizen that a group of citizens unfurled a banner in a main square in Chongqing that said "Party Secretary Bo, We Love and Esteem You," and were subsequently taken away by plain-clothes security forces. A controversial Peking University professor Kong Qingdong, a 73rd generation descendant of Confucius, said on his television show that removing Bo Xilai is similar to "a counter-revolutionary coup;" one news site reported his show has since been suspended.

The Wall Street Journal reports that searching for Bo Xilai's name on Baidu, China's most popular search engine, lacks the standard censorship boilerplate ("according to relevant rules and regulations, a portion of the search results cannot be revealed") that accompanies searching for top leaders like Wen Jiabao and Hu Jintao. A recent search for other Politburo members like Bo rival Wang Yang and People's Liberation Army top general Xu Caihou were similarly uncensored. Conversely, searching for Bo's name on Sina's popular Weibo micro-blogging service now doesn't return any relevant results. A censored fatal Ferrari crash on Sunday night has raised suspicions of elite foul play, possibly realted to Bo. The bannedbook.org reports that Hu and Zhou "are currently fighting for control of China Central Television, Xinhua News (the official Communist Party wire service), and other ‘mouthpieces,'" which have been eerily but unsurprisingly taciturn about Bo Xilai.

What we do know, as one message that bounced around Sina Weibo said, is that "something big happened in Beijing."

 

[Housecarl]

For links see article source.....
Posted for fair use.....
http://www.time.com/time/world/article/0,8599,2109894,00.html

Mali President's Whereabouts Unknown
By AP Friday, Mar. 23, 2012

(BAMAKO, Mali) — Coup leaders in Mali would not give details on the whereabouts of the democratically elected president more than a day after they stormed his compound and took power.

The streets of the capital, Bamako, were calm Friday. (MORE: Mali: Big Trouble in a Poor Country Awash in Post-Gaddafi Weapons)

Late Thursday, the coup leader said President Amadou Toumani Toure was "well and is safe," but did not say if he is being held by the putschists. Rumors that he was at a military camp protected by his presidential guard could not be confirmed.

Toure was to step down next month. Soldiers angry over his handling of an insurgency in the country's north stormed the palace on Wednesday. Toure has not been heard from since.

Toure is himself a soldier who came to power in a 1991 coup. He was hailed for handing power to civilians. He won the democratic election in 2002.

 

[Housecarl]

For links see article source.....
Posted for fair use.......
http://www.smh.com.au/world/mali-coup-condemned-across-the-globe-20120323-1vp8i.html

Mali coup condemned across the globe
March 24, 2012

Mali coup leaders ordered borders closed after taking over buildings in the capital and ousting President Amadou Toumani Toure, sparking international condemnation.

The band of mutineers - who call themselves the National Committee for the Establishment of Democracy - said their move was prompted by the government's ''inability'' to put down a Tuareg-led insurrection in the north.

Gunfire rang out in the capital as condemnation poured in from Western powers and the African Union urged ''the mutineers immediately to put an end'' to Mali's first coup in 21 years.

France suspended co-operation with its former colony, urging soldiers not to harm Mr Toure, who was at a military camp under protection from his elite paratrooper guard.

It remained unclear how tight the junta's grip on power was. The United States, which has voiced fears that parts of Mali and neighbouring countries were becoming a safe haven for jihadi extremists, called ''for the immediate restoration of constitutional rule''.

Sources said at least one rebel soldier had died and about 40 people had been wounded in the coup.

Mali is usually seen as politically stable, but troubles in the north where Tuareg tribes have long felt ignored by a southern government and al-Qaeda has taken root have turned the region into a tinderbox.

This was ignited when the demise of Muammar Gaddafi sparked the return of hundreds of heavily armed Tuareg who fought for him in Libya and were ready to resume a long struggle for independence. What began as a mutiny over the government's response to the rekindled Tuareg insurrection became a full-blown coup as soldiers seized control of the presidential palace and state broadcaster.

 

[The Flying Dutchman]

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Yaalon:
Iran World's Number One Threat

Minister of Strategic Affairs Moshe Yaalon criticized Western 'hesitancy'
in dealing with Iran saying the military option must be credible

By Gavriel Queenann
First Publish: 3/23/2012, 2:45 PM
http://www.israelnationalnews.com/News/News.aspx/154084​

Vice Premier and Minister of Strategic Affairs Moshe Yaalon said Thursday that Iran's nuclear program is the leading global security threat.

"The main threat to regional and world stability comes from Tehran and the Iranian regime." Yaalon stressed during the visit referred to in high school in Kiryat Haim.

"Imagine what it would do upon achieving such capability," Yaalon said, adding "The nuclear umbrella will not just open against us, but against the United States."

"What if they put a dirty bomb in Manhattan, Los Angeles, or the Port of Haifa? This could come to pass if Iran obtains military nuclear capability. The whole world understands this today - and in recent months it has risen to the top of the global agnda.

"Given that everyone agrees we should stop [Iran's] nuclear program, we must convey our determination to impose sanctions backed up by a strong and credible military threat. If Iran feels the genuine pressure of a threat, it will act rationally. When you threaten their survival, they become irrational," Yaalon said.

However, Yaalon was highly critical of what he described as the West's "hesitancy" in dealing with Tehran.

"On the one hand the West has levied sanctions, which is good," Yaalon said. "But, on the other hand, the West hesitates because they worry over rising oil prices. Iranians call this fear and manipulate them, threatening a crisis in the Straits of Hormuz - threatening a sharp rise in prices fuel."

As a result the West just "wants to intensify sanctions rather than strike and see gas prices rise. It is better to pay more for gasoline now than when Iran becomes a nuclear power and can directly control oil prices," he said.

As for the military option, Yaalon said "the West wants to avoid a confrontation and we must confront them about it. The military option is a last resort, but we must make it clear the threat is serious. If no one else will act, we have no choice but to do it ourselves."

"It does not matter whether we attack or coalition forces led by the US attack, there is no doubt that the Iranians will strike at Israel either way," he added.






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[The Flying Dutchman]

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Threat of strike on Iran is working: Israel's Barak

by Staff Writers
Jerusalem (AFP) March 22, 2012
http://www.spacewar.com/reports/Threat_of_strike_on_Iran_is_working_Israels_Barak_999.html​

The threat of a military strike on Iran is preventing the Islamic republic from taking the final steps towards developing a nuclear bomb, Israeli Defence Minister Ehud Barak said on Thursday.

"We are seeing with our own eyes the reason why Iran, which really wants to achieve a military nuclear capability, is not taking some of the steps defined by the IAEA as breaking the rules, why it is not breaking out," he told public radio, referring to the UN's International Atomic Energy Agency.

"One of the reasons is the fear of what will happen if, God forbid, the United States or maybe someone else acts against them," Barak said, referring to the threat of an air strike against Iran's nuclear facilities.

Israel sees an Iranian nuclear weapon as a threat to its existence, and believes Tehran may be on the cusp of "break out" capacity -- the moment when it could quickly produce weapons-grade uranium.

With Iran shifting its core nuclear facilities into protected underground sites, Israel fears Tehran is moving into the so-called "immunity zone," and has warned a military strike may be the only way to prevent the Islamic republic from obtaining a nuclear weapons capability.

Although the Obama administration has made clear it would not hesitate "to use force" where necessary, it has also said it opposes an attack for now, and wants time to let a new round of sanctions take effect.

Last month, Iran agreed to revive talks with the P5+1 group of world leaders, comprising the five permanent UN Security Council members plus Germany, but the spectre of a military confrontation still looms large.

Israel and Washington disagree over the imminence of the Iranian nuclear threat, and the only way to overcome this disagreement was to step up the sanctions imposed on Tehran and to ensure the upcoming talks achieved results, Barak said.

"There's a point of disagreement and the only way of getting over it and resolving it is by accelerating the sanctions, and by setting down a short timetable for the talks next month, to test if they mean to stop their nuclear programme or not," he said.

So far, no date or venue for the talks has yet been announced. The last round of Iran-P5+1 talks collapsed in Istanbul in January 2011.

Israel and much of the West believe Iran's nuclear programme is geared towards obtaining a weapon, but Tehran denies the charges, saying the programme is for civil power generation and medical purposes only.






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