WAR 07-01-2023-to-07-07-2023__****THE****WINDS****of****WAR****

Housecarl

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(299) 06-10-2023-to-06-16-2023__****THE****WINDS****of****WAR****

(300) 06-17-2023-to-06-23-2023__****THE****WINDS****of****WAR****

(301) 06-24-2023-to-06-30-2023__****THE****WINDS****of****WAR****

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Housecarl

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German coalition at odds over fighter jet sale to Saudi Arabia, Welt am Sonntag reports​

Reuters
June 30, 2023 10:03 PM PDT Updated 15 hours ago

BERLIN, July 1(Reuters) - Germany's coalition government is at odds over whether to bow to British pressure and approve the production of Eurofighter Typhoon fighter jets for Saudi Arabia, the newspaper Welt Am Sonntag reported on Saturday, citing anonymous sources.

A deal struck by Riyadh and BAE Systems (BAES.L) five years ago for the arms maker to supply 48 such jets was put on hold due to the war in Yemen, where Saudi-led Arab forces intervened in 2015.

A third of the components for the jets come from Germany, industry sources told Reuters at the time.

Chancellor Olaf Scholz of the left-leaning Social Democrats (SPD) and Finance Minister Christian Lindner are leaning towards allowing the export, but the Greens, and parts of the SPD, are strongly against the move, according to the report.

Germany imposed a hardline halt to arms sales to Riyadh following the killing of Saudi journalist Jamal Khashoggi in 2018, taking a far tougher approach than major allies such as the United States, France and Britain.

A March 2018 governing accord between then-chancellor Angela Merkel and the SPD banned arms sales to any parties to the war in Yemen, except for certain previously approved items and those that will remain in the purchasing country.

Since the rapprochement of Saudi Arabia and Iran, which could end their proxy war in Yemen, the British have argued that Germany cannot block the export of Eurofighter jets to third parties.

A spokesperson for the Chancellery declined to comment to Welt am Sonntag.

Reporting by Sabine Siebold; Writing by Victoria Waldersee; Editing by Jonathan Oatis
 

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South Sudan alarmed by rebel threats to disrupt crude oil flow​


By FRED OLUOCH

SATURDAY JULY 01 2023​


South Sudan is increasingly getting concerned that the continued conflict in the neighbouring Sudan will soon impact the transportation and revenue from oil, its economic mainstay.

Apart from the insecurity posed to the oil transportation by the war, the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) last week threatened South Sudan that it would interrupt the transportation of oil passing through the territories they control unless Juba gives them a share of the rental and transit fees.

The RSF has also threatened to shut down the pipeline infrastructure unless South Sudan stops contributing to the military leadership led by Gen Abdel Fattah al-Burhan.

Read: Sudan conflict: What worries neighbours

Ezekiel Lol Gatkuoth, a former Petroleum minister, said that whether these threats are real or part of the wider propaganda of the war, shutting down South Sudan oil would be catastrophic.

“A shutdown would be a loss to South Sudan, Sudan and our oil partners China National Petroleum Corporation, Petronas of Malaysia, and ONGC of India,” Mr Gatkuoth told The EastAfrican.

Related​

 

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Burgeoning Azerbaijani-NATO Relations​

Publication: Eurasia Daily Monitor Volume: 20 Issue: 105​

By: Rusif Huseynov, Samir Hajizada

June 29, 2023 05:16 PM Age: 2 days

“Azerbaijan has proven to be a reliable partner of NATO [North Atlantic Treaty Organization],” declared President Ilham Aliyev in December 2021 during his visit to NATO Headquarters in Brussels. NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg confirmed this statement by referring to Azerbaijan as “a valued partner.” Stoltenberg supported his assertion by referencing Azerbaijan`s strong military cooperation with Turkey, its gas supplies to several NATO member states, as well as the country’s contribution to the NATO mission in Afghanistan (President.az, December 14, 2021).

August 2021. Afghanistan. As the United States and its allies evacuate the war-torn country during the Taliban’s subsequent takeover, soldiers of two countries—Turkey and Azerbaijan, both Muslim-majority nations—defend the critical Hamid Karzai airport and secure the successful exodus of government personnel and nongovernmental organization, dubbed the “Kabul airlift” (Caspian Post, August 16, 2021). Azerbaijani and Turkish soldiers stay in the country until the end and are among the last military personnel to depart. In offering his gratitude, Stoltenberg thanks Azerbaijan—in addition to the United States, the United Kingdom and Turkey—for its central role in securing the airport (Azernews, August 21, 2021).

Azerbaijan’s contributions to the NATO effort started in 2002 with 22 peacekeepers and rose to 120 by the time of the withdrawal. In addition to ground support, Azerbaijani units had facilitated the Afghanistan-bound supply logistics for the allied forces by securing the transit routes for around 40 percent of the needed military cargo (Caspian News, August 26, 2021).

Established in 1992, relations between Azerbaijan and NATO have evolved over the decades, with the former having participated in various programs of the military bloc, including the Partnership for Peace program and the NATO-led missions in Afghanistan and Kosovo (Nato.int, August 25, 2021). At some point, especially when other states in the post-Soviet space, such as Georgia and Ukraine, actively aspired to become members of the alliance, Azerbaijan`s path seemingly diverged from its fellow GUAM (Georgia, Ukraine, Azerbaijan and Moldova) partners: In truth, Baku never sought NATO membership and instead opted for “equidistance” from rivaling blocs (Top-center.org, March 18, 2021). Such a balancing policy was designed to maintain room for maneuver amid the growing confrontation between Russia and the West as well as to avoid irritating the Kremlin, which was quite sensitive about the NATO-bound paths of Georgia and Ukraine.

Nevertheless, Azerbaijan, through its bilateral relations with Turkey, enjoys an almost de-facto security guarantee from a NATO member—as some Azerbaijani experts put it, an indirect NATO “umbrella” (Top-center.org, June 15, 2021). Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan even announced in June 2021 that a Turkish military base could be set up in Azerbaijan under the recently signed bilateral Shusha Declaration, aimed at strengthening the two countries’ defense partnership (EurAsian Times, June 17, 2021)—a message that was received in Moscow with a great deal of irritation and discomfort (Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty, June 18, 2021).

Close relations with Turkey have enabled Azerbaijan to modernize its armed forces and bring them closer to NATO standards (Report.az., December 5, 2022). During the Second Karabakh War, this modernization, coupled with state-of-the-art weaponry from diverse sources (including NATO members), proved itself more effective than the Armenian Armed Forces, a Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO) member that stuck with Soviet/Russian military philosophy and technology.

Emboldened by this triumph, and perhaps due to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, Azerbaijan has been more enthusiastic in expanding cooperation with NATO in the past year and a half, with this deepening of ties “positively assessed” by senior officials of the alliance (Turan, April 29, 2022).

As such, mutual visits have indeed intensified over that period. In December 2021, Aliyev visited NATO Headquarters, declaring that Azerbaijan is “very happy to have a high level of interaction with NATO” (President.az, December 14, 2021). Aliyev’s foreign policy advisor, Hikmat Hajiyev, has joined a number of meetings with NATO officials in Brussels, most recently in May 2023 (Report.az, May 2). The NATO secretary general’s special representative for the Caucasus and Central Asia, Javier Colomina, has been to Azerbaijan four times since 2021. During his most recent trip to Baku, Colomina met with Hajiyev and Foreign Minister Jeyhun Bayramov (Report.az, May 26), as well as Defense Minister Zakir Hasanov, to discuss practical cooperation as well as joint defense planning and review processes. The NATO official’s previous visits included meetings with Aliyev (President.az, April 28, 2022) and Hasanov in April 2022 (Mod.gov.az, April 29, 2022), as well as with Bayramov in October 2021 (Mfa.gov.az, October 18, 2021) and January 2023 (Mfa.gov.az, January 19).

Furthermore, in November 2022, Baku hosted NATO Days, which aimed to strengthen the alliance’s close cooperation with Azerbaijan, a “key partner nation” as described on the official NATO website (Shape.nato.int, November 28, 2022). As part of the proceedings, a delegation headed by Rear Admiral Gunnstein Bruåsdal, deputy chief of staff for the Supreme Headquarters Allied Powers Europe Partnerships Directorate, visited Azerbaijan`s military facilities, held a series of meetings and congratulated “the Azerbaijani Forces for their excellent progress, where various force components have successfully achieved full operational capability, through our Partnerships Operational Capability Concept scheme.” The chief of staff of NATO Allied Land Command, Lieutenant General Mustafa Oğuz, also paid a visit to Azerbaijan in March 2023 (Trend, March 9).

During an interview in December 2022, Colomina stated that Azerbaijani-NATO cooperation had returned to pre-pandemic levels and that the two parties were working “to develop a new partnership framework document, called the Individually Tailored Partnership Programme (or ITPP), which should set us on an ambitious course for the years to come” (APA, December 19, 2022).

According to a senior NATO official, Azerbaijan successfully uses NATO cooperation tools and is among the most active countries in these programs. The Azerbaijani Defense Ministry keeps a list of the NATO tools and programs its military has taken part in, such as the Individual Partnership Action Plan, activities within the Planning and Review Process, the Operational Capabilities Concept, the Defense Education Enhancement Program, as well as the Science for Security and Peace Program (Mod.gov.az, accessed June 24).

Azerbaijan`s closer military cooperation with Turkey and NATO is evolving simultaneously with Baku’s drift away from Moscow: Several Russian-made Sukhoi Su-25 fighter jets in the Azerbaijani Air Force have been modernized (following NATO standards) by Turkey, rather than Russia (Ordu.az, May 12; see EDM, May 30).

Within these positively developing relations, each side has its concerns as well. While not engaged directly in Armenian-Azerbaijani peace negotiations and the Karabakh issue, NATO nevertheless fully supports mediation efforts by the United States and European Union but has raised concerns about the protests and Azerbaijani-installed checkpoint along the Lachin road (Nato.int, January 20; APA, May 2). For its part, the Azerbaijani side is troubled about possible military aid to Armenia, which is a member of the Russian-led CSTO, by individual NATO states, such as France (Azertag; Reytinq, May 13).

While these concerns will be addressed, it is apparent that Azerbaijan has opted for deepening its cooperation with NATO. In turn, the alliance also seems keen in taking advantage of the growing level of interaction between the two sides amid the tense Russian-Western confrontation.

The True Lack of Regionalism Explains the Failure of Anti-Kremlin Military Projects
June 29, 2023

The True Lack of Regionalism Explains the Failure of Anti-Kremlin Military Projects

By: Vadim Shtepa
The weekend mutiny launched by Yevgeny Prigozhin and his Wagner Group will have numerous wide-ranging consequences that analysts are still trying to sort out. However, more attention should be drawn to the fact that one... MORE
Putin Propagandists Seek to Divide Others at Home and Abroad, Not Convince Them
June 29, 2023

Putin Propagandists Seek to Divide Others at Home and Abroad, Not Convince Them

By: Paul Goble
The Kremlin’s ongoing propaganda effort is fundamentally different than that of its Soviet predecessor, less because of the technology it has access to and more because of its different overarching goals. The Soviet effort was... MORE
A Profile of Wadhawa Singh Babbar: The Pakistan-Based Leader of the Pro-Sikh Babbar Khalsa International
June 29, 2023

A Profile of Wadhawa Singh Babbar: The Pakistan-Based Leader of the Pro-Sikh Babbar Khalsa International

By: Syed Fazl-e-Haider
Wadhawa Singh Babbar is the leader of Babbar Khalsa International (BKI), or “Tigers of the True Faith,” which is a proscribed terrorist and separatist organization operating in India's state of Punjab. BKI is struggling to... MORE
How the Martyrdom of Asadullah al-Urgenchi and Abu Muhammad al-Uzbeki Inspires Future ISKP Recruits
June 29, 2023

How the Martyrdom of Asadullah al-Urgenchi and Abu Muhammad al-Uzbeki Inspires Future ISKP Recruits

By: Lucas Webber
Since the Taliban’s takeover of Afghanistan in August 2021, Islamic State in Khorasan Province (ISKP) has centralized and vastly expanded its media apparatus, while widening its scope to include more content about regional and international... MORE
Ustaz Ahmad Farooq’s Lasting Legacy in the South Asian Jihadist Ecosystem
June 29, 2023

Ustaz Ahmad Farooq’s Lasting Legacy in the South Asian Jihadist Ecosystem

By: Riccardo Valle, Kiran Butt
In March, al-Qaeda in the Indian Subcontinent (AQIS)’s prominent Hitteen magazine published a 455-page book. It covered the life of former AQIS top ideologue Ustad Ahmad Farooq and was written by current AQIS deputy leader... MORE
Kakhovka Dam Destruction: Russia’s Ecocide and Economic War Against Ukraine (Part Two)
June 28, 2023

Kakhovka Dam Destruction: Russia’s Ecocide and Economic War Against Ukraine (Part Two)

By: Alla Hurska
*Read Part One. The destruction of the Kakhovka Hydroelectric Power Plant (HPP) on June 6, caused by the Russian occupation forces, proved to be a catastrophic event with wide-ranging environmental and economic consequences for Ukraine... MORE
Putin’s Nuclear Provocations Proliferate
June 28, 2023

Putin’s Nuclear Provocations Proliferate

By: Mykola Vorobiov
Yevgeny Prigozhin and his Wagner Group’s aborted munity in Russia has demonstrated the weakness of the Kremlin in controlling the situation inside the country, which, as shown by the so-called “march for justice,” can rapidly... MORE
What Does Lukashenka’s Role as Mediator in Russian Crisis Imply?
June 28, 2023

What Does Lukashenka’s Role as Mediator in Russian Crisis Imply?

By: Yauheni Preiherman
As the entire world watched in disbelief during the rapidly unfolding mutiny in Russia organized by Yevgeny Prigozhin and the Wagner Group on June 23 and 24, hardly anyone could imagine how its endgame would... MORE
 

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Mexican anti-cartel vigilante leader buried and with him, an armed citizens' movement​

One of the last leaders of Mexico’s anti-gang citizens’ movement has been buried alongside two of his faithful followers
ByMARK STEVENSON Associated Press
July 1, 2023, 2:54 PM

LA RUANA, Mexico -- One of the last leaders of Mexico’s anti-gang citizens' movement was buried Saturday alongside two of his faithful followers, and any hope of reviving armed civilian resistance to drug cartels probably died with them.

“Self defense” vigilante leader Hipolito Mora had long since ceased to pose an armed threat to the cartel that dominates western Mexico's Michoacan state, as was clear from the overwhelming, deadly, multipoint ambush in which he and three followers were slain Thursday.

While some angry relatives talked of reviving the 2013-2014 armed farmers' movement that kicked out one cartel — only to see it replaced by others — many doubted that heroic, tragic chapter could ever be repeated.

“I think it’s not a question of reviving the past,” said the Rev. Gilberto Vergara, one of the priests who officiated the funeral Mass for Mora and his followers Calixto Alvarez and Roberto Naranjo. The third follower was buried elsewhere.

“The circumstances have changed, they’re different, and we saw how everything ended.”


Mora himself acknowledged that the 2013 movement, in which farmers and ranchers banded together to resist constant threats and extortion from the Knights Templar cartel, wound up infiltrated by members of other drug gangs.

The cartel now dominating the state, alternately called the Viagras or the United Cartels, “is worse than the ones who were here before,” Mora’s brother, Guadalupe Mora Chavez, said.

“If the government and (Michoacan Gov. Alfredo Ramírez) Bedolla don’t do something, there are possibilities the people will rise up in arms again," the brother said.

But most at Mora’s wake were too afraid of cartel retaliation even to have their names appear in print.

“He looked out for his town, for his people, and that is something none of us is going to do," his sister, Olivia Mora, said in a tearful address in front of his coffin.


“We all think first about our own families,” she said. “None of us are going to have the courage to do what he did.”

“I hope that something remains,” another of Mora's weeping female relatives said. “I hope his voice hasn’t been silenced.”

Mora always spoke out against the cartels’ extortion of local farmers and lime growers, ,even after his hundreds of followers had been reduced to a handful.

The female relative, who asked that her name not be used, said the extortion has grown so bad some growers are giving up their businesses, and locals sometimes are forced to pay double the price for basic goods.

The power of the drug cartels has only grown over the last decade. The Rev. Gregorio López, a priest who was not present at the funeral, said President Andrés Manuel Lopez Obrador’s policy of not confronting the cartels has allowed them to grow.


“The ‘hugs not bullets’ policy has been the perfect fertilizer for growing drug cartels across the country," he said.

The overwhelming power of the cartels was visible in the bullet holes in the walls where Mora and his bodyguards died. The Michoacan state prosecutors’ office said unidentified gunmen cut off his SUV and his bodyguards’ pickup truck on a street in La Ruana, Mora's hometown, then riddled Mora’s vehicle with bullets and then set it on fire.

In a forensic inspection Friday, authorities marked out where bullets hit Mora’s vehicle from three sides. Residents shared video of the attack that suggested cartel gunmen used a machine gun and a sniper rifle to destroy Mora’s vehicle.

Residents of La Ruana, located in the torrid agricultural belt of western Michoacan state, did turn out by the hundreds Saturday for the funeral.

At the local cemetery, Mora and his two followers were laid to rest to the tune of the Joan Sebastian “corrido” ballad “The General.” The lyrics go: “I have been a general a long time, and even though I am wounded, I never forget about my troops, and they haven’t buried me yet.”

A knot of state police stood outside the cemetery, providing security that was never provided to Mora. Despite the big tearful farewell, it is becoming more difficult to even speak out against the cartels' domination, which is mainly what Mora did in his final years along with running his lime orchard.

The cartels seem intent on squelching even non-violent resistance.

“The narcos and the drug cartels are always going to try to get rid of anything that gets in their way,” said Vergara, the priest.

The time for armed self-defense movements is past, he said.

“Guns don’t help us, civilians shouldn’t carry guns,” Vergara said. “I think it is up to the government to do their duty.”

That appears unlikely, given the government’s current policy of tolerating the homegrown Viagras cartel, while fighting off an offensive by the Jalisco cartel to enter the state.

“They have to fight all the cartels," said Guadalupe Mora.
 

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Group of 16 police staff kidnapped by armed gang of Mexican cartel thugs are freed: Hostages reunited with their families as three-day nightmare ends​

  • Group were kidnapped while travelling in southern Mexican state of Chiapas
  • Relatives staged sit-in at Chiapas Security Secretariat demanding their release
  • Gang had called for dismissal of three officials in exchange for the hostages
By SHARI MILLER FOR MAILONLINE

PUBLISHED: 13:36 EDT, 1 July 2023 | UPDATED: 13:59 EDT, 1 July 2023

Sixteen police employees kidnapped by an armed gang in Mexico's southern state of Chiapas have been freed after three days of captivity.

Governor Rutilio Escandon announced the news on Friday to the elation of families awaiting their release.

The gang of cartel thugs had called for the dismissal of three high-ranking police officials and the release of a kidnapped singer in exchange for the freedom of 16 police department employees they abducted as they travelled on a bus in the southern Mexican state of Chiapas.

Confrontations between criminals and law enforcement have multiplied recently in the area, which is a transit zone for migrants and drug trafficking.

'I want to tell the people of Chiapas and Mexico that the 16 kidnapped colleagues... have been released this afternoon,' the governor said on Twitter.

Local television stations aired live footage of the abductees, all police administrative workers, reuniting with their families.

The relatives had been staging a sit-in at the Chiapas Security Secretariat, where those abducted were employed, demanding the safe release of their loved ones.

As the newly-freed police workers approached on foot, the surprised family members raced to embrace them amid screams and tears, news footage from Foro TV and Milenio showed.

'My brother is in the ambulance right now. They are working on keeping his vital signs stable, as his blood pressure was high,' Benicia Rincon, a sister of one of the hostages, told a local network.

Escandon thanked Mexican President Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador, the army, the navy, the national guard and others for their help in rescuing the kidnap victims.

During an event in Mexico state, Lopez Obrador described the release as 'very good news' and sent 'a hug to the relatives'.

The state governor did not offer details about how the workers had been freed.

More than 1,000 members of state and federal security forces were involved in the search for the workers, who are administrative employees of the police force.

They had been kidnapped on Tuesday while traveling by bus on a stretch of highway that connects the town of Ocozocoautla and the state capital Tuxtla Gutierrez, some 435 miles (700 kilometres) southeast of Mexico City.

There were also 17 women on board the bus at the time of the hostage taking, but they were all let go.

Local media released a video purportedly showing an abducted worker being forced to call out Marco Antonio Burguete Ramos, director of the State Preventive Police; Francisco Javier Orantes Abadía, Undersecretary of Public Safety and Citizen Protection; and Roberto Jair Hernández, director of the State Border Police.

He then instructed the men to reach out to their boss, Jesús 'El Pulsera, Machado, a Sinaloa Cartel cell leader, so that they can set free Nayeli Cinco, a 30-year-old mother-of-two who was kidnapped from her home in Tuxtla Gutierrez on June 22.

'She has nothing to do with us and we don't have to pay for the sins of other,' the man said. 'Please, please, please, we don't have to pay for the sins of others.'

Lopez Obrador proposed on Thursday that an inquiry should be launched into the actions of the three officials in exchange for the hostages' release.

Local news outlets released a video showing several vehicles stopped on the highway with their doors open and men in bulletproof vests pointing guns at the passengers in the vehicles, Aljazeera reports.

Meanwhile the newspaper Reforma reported that the employees were ordered to lie on the ground and had their mobile phones confiscated.

According to other local reports, the kidnapping of the 16 police workers was carried out by members of the Jalisco New Generation Cartel in response to Cinco's abduction.

Cinco's partner Fredy Ruiz allegedly reports to Juan Valdovinos, a high-ranking Jalisco New Generation Cartel leader.

Law enforcement sources said Valdovinos had been paying Hernández Teheran in exchange for protection. But the official stopped accepting payment after he reportedly started working for Machado.

In two additional videos, one of the staffers and a masked gang member called for the immediate removal of Burguete Ramos, Orantes Abadía and Hernández, alleging that they worked for the cartel.

Violence in the Mexican border region with Guatemala has escalated in recent months amid a territorial dispute between the Sinaloa Cartel, which has dominated the area, and the Jalisco New Generation Cartel.

Mexico has registered more than 350,000 murders and some 110,000 disappearances - most attributed to criminal groups - since the launch of a controversial military anti-drug offensive in 2006.

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TECHNOLOGY

Revisiting the Iran Nuclear Deal: Implications for Global Security​

by SOFREP
6 hours ago

The Birth of the JCPOA: Aims and Ambitions​

As the world’s geopolitics continues to pivot on a delicate balance, the Iran Nuclear Deal, formally known as the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), remains one of the most hotly contested and consequential diplomatic agreements of our time. Revisiting the deal and understanding its implications is crucial for interpreting the ever-shifting landscape of global security.

When the JCPOA was inked in 2015, it was hailed as a diplomatic masterstroke, a deal designed to prevent Iran from obtaining nuclear weapons and defuse the volatile security situation in the Middle East. However, the U.S.’s withdrawal from the agreement under the Trump administration in 2018, followed by Iran’s subsequent breaches of the deal’s terms, has injected a high degree of uncertainty and apprehension into the mix.

The JCPOA, agreed upon by Iran and the P5+1 (China, France, Russia, the United Kingdom, the United States, plus Germany), sought to limit Iran’s nuclear capabilities in exchange for relief from economic sanctions. The agreement aimed to extend Iran’s “breakout time” – the time it would take to produce enough fissile material for a nuclear weapon – and put in place rigorous inspections by the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA).

View: https://youtu.be/2sshGWOO11c


The US Withdrawal: Ripples and Repercussions​

The U.S.’s departure from the JCPOA, citing the deal’s inability to address Iran’s ballistic missile program and its influence in regional conflicts, cast a long shadow over the future of the deal and its efficacy in curtailing Iran’s nuclear ambitions. Following the U.S. withdrawal, Iran breached the deal’s uranium enrichment limits, shrinking its breakout time and raising concerns about a potential nuclear arms race in the Middle East.

For global security, these developments carry significant implications.

The prospect of a nuclear-armed Iran can trigger a regional arms race, with countries like Saudi Arabia and Turkey possibly seeking nuclear weapons.
This possibility is a stark reminder of the destabilizing effect of nuclear proliferation, even as the world grapples with other security challenges.


Strategic Considerations for a Renegotiated Deal​

Revisiting the Iran Nuclear Deal, therefore, carries both risks and opportunities. On the one hand, a renegotiated deal could put Iran back on the path of nuclear compliance, providing a window of opportunity to address other contentious issues, such as Iran’s ballistic missile program and its regional activities.

On the other hand, a failure to revive the JCPOA could edge Iran closer to nuclear weapons capability, a scenario with far-reaching and potentially catastrophic implications for regional and global security.

View: https://youtu.be/JvxOm3KDl0g


In navigating these waters, the U.S. and its allies must adopt a calibrated approach. The Biden administration has expressed willingness to rejoin the JCPOA, conditional on Iran returning to full compliance with the deal. This approach could provide a platform for further dialogue and negotiation on broader security issues.

At the same time, the international community must stand ready to enforce stringent penalties should Iran continue to violate the deal’s terms. An effective and coordinated approach, combining diplomatic engagement with the credible threat of sanctions, may represent the best chance for salvaging the nuclear deal and maintaining regional stability.


Moreover, it is crucial that the negotiations consider the interests and security concerns of regional stakeholders, including Israel and the Gulf states. Their involvement is critical for ensuring the long-term sustainability of any agreement and for enhancing regional security cooperation.

The Iran Nuclear Deal remains a critical component of global security. As we revisit the JCPOA, the challenges are manifold, but the stakes are high. The way forward requires careful diplomacy, strategic foresight, and a commitment to a collective security architecture that can address the complexity and volatility of the current geopolitical climate.
 

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Well that took them long enough.....All that's missing are new build Pershing II/III analogs....

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  1. The War Zone

Army Fires Tomahawk Missile From Its New Typhon Battery In Major Milestone​

The U.S. Army says it has now successfully fired Tomahawk and SM-6 missiles from its new ground-based launchers.

BY JOSEPH TREVITHICK | PUBLISHED JUL 3, 2023 2:34 PM EDT

The Army says it has demonstrated the full expected operational capability of its new Typhon ground-based multi-purpose missile launcher.

US Army

he U.S. Army says it has demonstrated the operational capability of its newest ground-based missile launcher with the system's recent successful firing of a Tomahawk land-attack cruise missile. This follows a test launch of a multi-purpose SM-6 missile earlier this year from what is officially known as the Typhon Weapon System. The service currently has one so-called Mid-Range Capability battery equipped with Typhon, which has four trailer-based launchers and other supporting equipment.

The Army's Rapid Capabilities and Critical Technologies Office (RCCTO) announced the Tomahawk launch on June 28, but the actual test had occurred the day before. This comes just over six months after the service accepted delivery of the first Typhon launchers and other components of its first Mid-Range Capability (MRC) battery from Lockheed Martin.
Army Fires Tomahawk Missile From Its New Typhon Battery In Major Milestone

"This test follows the successful launch of an SM-6 missile from the Mid-Range Capability system earlier this year, confirming the full operational capability of the system," according to a brief statement from RCCTO.

Army officials have said in the past that their goal is to reach at least some level of true operational capability with the first MRC battery before the end of Fiscal Year 2023 this September.
A complete Typhon Weapon System battery consists of four launchers and a command post, all on trailers, as well as reload and support vehicles, according to details the Army has released in the past. Targeting information is provided by offboard sources.
A briefing slide giving a general overview of the complete Typhon Weapon System. <em>US Army</em>

A briefing slide giving a general overview of the complete Typhon Weapon System. US Army

The Army currently expects Typhon to be employed primarily against land-based targets using either Tomahawk or SM-6. At the same time, anti-ship optimized variants of Tomahawk exist. Originally designed as a surface-to-air missile, SM-6 has a demonstrated anti-ship capability, too, and significantly longer-range and otherwise more capable versions are in development. As it stands now, the U.S. military says that the SM-6 family is its only real capability for engaging incoming highly-maneuverable hypersonic weapons.
An SM-6 missile at the moment of launch from a U.S. Navy <em>Arleigh Burke</em> class destroyer. <em>USN</em>

An SM-6 missile at the moment of launch from a U.S. Navy Arleigh Burke class destroyer. USN

Altogether, the door is already wide open to the possibility of future Army MRC batteries being employed against a wide variety of targets in the future. These same launchers are already expected to be part of the expanded air and missile defenses that the U.S. military is working to put in place on the strategic U.S. island territory of Guam.

In addition, the Typhon launchers are derived from the Mk 41 Vertical Launch System (VLS) in use on various U.S. Navy and foreign warships. This launcher can already fire a wide array of containerized missiles, and other types could be integrated into it in the future.
A graphic showing various missiles that can be launched from Mk 41 VLSs now. <em>Lockheed Martin</em>

A graphic showing various missiles that can be launched from Mk 41 VLSs now. Lockheed Martin

RCCTO said that personnel from the 1st Multi-Domain Task Force, headquartered at Joint Base Lewis-McChord in Washington State, had conducted the test launch with support from the U.S. Navy's Program Executive Office for Unmanned Aviation and Strike Weapons (PEO U&W). The Navy is the lead service responsible for managing the Tomahawk and SM-6 missile programs across the U.S. military.

Furthermore, on top of the Mk 41-based launchers, Typhon has a fire control system derived from the combat-proven Aegis Combat System. The Mk 41 VLS and Aegis are also Navy-managed programs. The Navy itself has been testing a containerized Mk 41-derived launcher called the Mk 70 Expeditionary Launcher, which is very similar to the Typhon design. Variants and/or derivatives of the Mk 70 have been embarked on uncrewed ships and loaded on trailers.
Two Navy Mk 70 launchers, or variants or derivatives thereof, on trailers in a ground-based capacity during a test in Europe in 2022. <em>USN</em>

Two Navy Mk 70 launchers, or variants or derivatives thereof, on trailers in a ground-based capacity during a test in Europe in 2022. USN

The Army and the Navy have both been working closely with the Marines, which is acquiring its own ground-based Tomahawk capability, as you can read more about here "All three Services share common fire control, missile launcher canisters, and missiles," a Marine Corps spokesperson told The War Zone in June. The Marines' currently plan to use a smaller remotely-operated launcher based on the 4x4 Joint Light Tactical Vehicle (JLTV), but there are questions about the feasibility of that combination.

For the Army, specifically, the successful demonstration of Typhon's full expected operational capability is another important step forward in the service's efforts to field a number of new long-range strike capabilities. This also includes the Dark Eagle Long-Range Hypersonic Weapon (LRHW) and the Precision Strike Missile (PrSM) short-range ballistic missile. PrSM can be fired from existing M270 Multiple Launch Rocket System (MLRS) and M142 High-Mobility Artillery Rocket System (HIMARS) launchers and the Army is now looking into even longer-range missiles that might work with those systems.
One of the Army's initial batch of launchers for its Dark Eagle Long Range Hypersonic Weapon (LRHW) during a test. <em>US Army</em>

One of the Army's initial batch of launchers for its Dark Eagle Long Range Hypersonic Weapon (LRHW) during a test. US Army

Armed with Tomahawk, Typhon gives the Army a new tool that allows it to create a bubble that extends roughly 1,000 miles in all directions from wherever the launchers within which it can hold land-based targets at risk. The shorter-range SM-6 gives the complete system further flexibility. As already noted, the ability of Tomahawk and SM-6 to engage other kinds of targets means that an MRC battery could have broader anti-access/aerial denial functionality in the future.

With the Navy and Marine Corps programs' ground-based Tomahawk programs moving forward, Typhon is also part of a new and larger joint-service land-based long-range strike ecosystem that is emerging. This is being heavily driven by the U.S. military's desire for more options for hitting targets on land, at sea, and in the air across the vast expanses of the Indo-Pacific region in any future higher-end conflict, especially one against China.

U.S. officials, as well as independent experts, regularly draw attention to China's People's Liberation Army's (PLA) numerical superiority in conventionally-armed ground-based cruise and ballistic missiles. This gives the PLA significant anti-access and aerial denial capabilities in various strategic regions, including the hotly contested South China Sea, as well as a significant non-nuclear deterrent more generally.
A map showing Chinese made-made island outposts just in the southern end of the South China sea, as well as sites belong other countries in the region. <em>DOD</em>

A map showing Chinese made-made island outposts just in the southern end of the South China sea, as well as sites belong other countries in the region. DOD

At the same time, questions do remain about exactly where land-based systems like Typhon could be deployed, particularly in the Indo-Pacific. The governments of many U.S. allies and partners have publicly stated that they are not interested in hosting American ground-launched long-range strike capabilities.

These new long-range-strike capabilities could be deployed in response to conflicts and crises elsewhere, too. In 2021, the Army stood up the 56th Artillery Command in Germany specifically to serve as a forward command and control node for future long-range "fires" units. The previous iteration of this unit had overseen Army Pershing and Pershing II nuclear-armed ballistic missiles during the Cold War in Europe.

It's also worth noting that the U.S. Air Force fielded ground-launched nuclear-tipped Tomahawk variants, called BGM-109G Gryphons, in Europe between 1983 and 1991. The Army, Navy, and Marine Corps' new land-based long-range missile systems will all be conventionally armed.
A launcher for the BGM-109G Gryphon variant of the Tomahawk cruise missile. <em>DOD</em>

A launcher for the BGM-109G Gryphon variant of the Tomahawk cruise missile. DOD

No matter how the Army's plans for deploying and employing its future MRC batteries continue to evolve, the service, alongside the Navy and Marines, is continuing to make progress in turning this capability into an operational reality.

Contact the author: joe@thedrive.com
 

jward

passin' thru

Will Eastern Europe Go Nuclear?​


James Fay​




The Russian invasion of Ukraine had ramifications throughout Europe, some positive, some negative

For example, NATO has been partially revived and recognized as the quintessential mechanism to contain Russia. Sweden and Finland, after years of close collaboration, decided to officially apply to join NATO. Most Western European nations have awakened from their decades-long fantasy that they could collaborate peaceably with Russia and build their industrial and energy future on inexpensive Russian fossil fuels. On the other side of the Atlantic, the United States, after President Trump's bromance with Vladimir Putin, appears to have returned temporarily to its Cold War bipartisan stance against Moscow.
Other Important sectors of Western Europe, however, particularly the energy-dependent German companies, would prefer to return to the pre-invasion dalliance with Moscow. But even as the political distance between Russia and NATO increases, the desire to appease and reengage with Russia remains constant in much of Western Europe.
At this moment, no one knows how the war in Ukraine will turn out. If the West perseveres and Ukraine survives with its pre-2014 lands intact, Europe is likely to settle into another extended cold war with Moscow. For the West, this might be an acceptable endgame.
Another eventuality might be a gradual post-war rapprochement between Moscow and its European neighbors, if the Kremlin military and political elites recognize that embracing the Chinese dragon would drag Russia into an indefinite period of military and economic subservience to Beijing.
A plausible third outcome is that a "peace now" faction in Western Europe, led by France and Germany, would pressure a humiliated Ukraine to sign a treaty with Russia, wherein Ukraine cedes to Moscow most of its lands seized in 2014, particularly Crimea. Such an outcome would set the stage for a decades-long process of Russia reassembling the Tsarist empire by grabbing ever larger chunks of Eastern Europe as well as parts of the NATO north in Sweden and Finland.
If this third outcome becomes a reality, some Eastern European countries may be expected to take desperate measures.

The West and Eastern Europe

In recent history the West's relationship with Eastern Europe has been marked by fickleness and betrayal. In 1938 France and Great Britain stood aside as Hitler absorbed Czechoslovakia and Austria. The flimsy excuse was "Peace in our time." When Hitler marched into Poland in 1939, France and the British declared war on Germany but provided no military assistance to the Poles.
At the end of World War II, Franklin Roosevelt allowed most of Eastern Europe to come under Stalin's brutal embrace. During the Cold War, the West encouraged the 1956 Hungarian revolt against Soviet oppression, only to stand aside as Soviet tanks crushed a popular uprising.
More recently, the first President Bush argued strenuously that Ukraine should not separate itself from the disintegrating Soviet Union. But in 1994, the Clinton administration persuaded the nascent Ukrainian government to give up all of its nuclear weapons, one-third of the entire Soviet arsenal, to Russia in return for inexpensive natural gas and a U.S./British guarantee of territorial sovereignty. Only a few years later, in 2014, President Barack Obama blithely dismissed this territorial guarantee of Ukraine and let his friend Putin seize Crimea.
Now, Eastern and Central European nations, even those under the shaky NATO nuclear umbrella, have plausible reasons to question the long-term commitment of the U.S. and NATO to their territorial integrity.

The introduction of nuclear weapons in Eastern Europe.

In June 2023, Putin announced his installation of tactical nuclear weapons in Belarus. Thus, the Kremlin, which has constantly been threatening to use nuclear weapons to get its way in Ukraine, has moved to dramatically raise the stakes and threaten the catastrophic destruction of all NATO countries, particularly those in Eastern Europe.
If this placement of nuclear weapons in Belarus gives Putin the upper hand and allows him to retain the land he seized in Ukraine, he will walk away with a substantial strategic military and geopolitical victory, leaving the Russians in a dominant strategic posture and with an unsatiated taste for expansion to the West.
Such a scenario would humiliate NATO on its home turf. Its resolve would have been tested and found wanting. The U.S. commitment to Europe would be shaken, and the Article 5 commitment of NATO to defend the territory of its members would be in doubt.

Going Nuclear

If Putin gains leverage by threatening to use nuclear weapons to obtain his strategic goals, several Eastern European nations, especially the Baltic nations of Latvia, Estonia and Lithuania, as well as Poland, would feel an existential threat. Would they and perhaps other threatened nations of Eastern Europe be motivated to acquire or develop their own nuclear weapons? Probably yes.
But what would be the deterrent value of a small number of nuclear weapons? Former French President DeGaulle thought he knew. When questioned about the military value of a limited number of nuclear weapons, the late French President noted that the French atomic force was militarily adequate because it was sufficient "to tear off an arm."
In a similar vein, an Eastern European diplomat recently remarked that no one invades a country with nuclear weapons.
But how easy would it be for a coalition of Eastern, and perhaps Northern European, nations to create a handful of nuclear weapons? In a technical sense, it would not be difficult.
To give one graphic illustration, a junior undergraduate attending Princeton University in 1976, designed a nuclear weapon using publicly available books and papers. This student became a celebrity and was dubbed "The A-Bomb Kid" by the media. For his seminar on nuclear proliferation, the student outlined the design for an atomic bomb similar to the weapon used at Nagasaki. Some authorities questioned whether the teenager’s bomb, as designed, would actually go off. Dr. Frank Chilton, a California nuclear scientist specializing in nuclear explosion engineering, answered this question, saying that student's design was "pretty much guaranteed to work."
So, for almost half a century, it has been clear that the details for making atomic weapons are in the public domain and that any country with a modernized technical economy could accomplish the task.
The major obstacle to an Eastern European bomb would be political. The current nuclear powers, particularly France and the U.S., would probably oppose it. But if the E.U., the U.S., and NATO had allowed Putin to prevail in Ukraine, opposition from this quarter would lack credibility.

Eastern European Alliances

The European nations of the East have been developing close economic, military, and political working relations over the past few decades. Since the collapse of the Soviet empire, thirteen nations of Eastern Europe have become members of NATO. In addition, nine of the 13 nations joined the Bucharest Nine, which Poland and Romania founded. The twelve-member Three Seas Initiative (that is the Baltic, Black, and Adriatic Seas), which Poland and Croatia founded, constitutes a second alliance. Additionally, there is the four-member Visegrád Group of Poland, Hungary, Slovakia, and the Czech Republic. Finally, Ukraine, Georgia, and Moldova are tied in with the E.U. via the so-called Eastern Partnership.
Sitting on the front lines and faced with an angry expansionist Russia, many of the Eastern European states may be receptive to a proposal, probably led by Poland, to rapidly develop a small number of nuclear warheads. But how well-equipped is Europe to accomplish this goal?

Eastern Europe’s Nuclear Infrastructure

Eastern Europe, including Ukraine and Finland, has 35 nuclear reactors in service as of 2023. With the addition of a few hundred centrifuges, the East has the infrastructure in which uranium could be enriched to weapon’s grade. Moreover, ten countries of the Eastern region offer nuclear and engineering Ph.D. and Master's degree programs. Hence, the East has many scientists and technicians who could oversee the enrichment and warhead manufacturing process.
In addition, Ukraine, when still part of the Soviet Union, housed one-third of the Soviet nuclear warheads. Those warheads, all of which were transferred back to Russia in 1994, were partially maintained by a highly trained Ukrainian workforce, many members of which are still alive.
So Eastern Europe, perhaps with the assistance of Finland and Sweden, could develop a modest number of nuclear weapons in a relatively short time if the region felt that Russia had become an ongoing existential threat.
While this Eastern nuclear initiative is realistic, it is not a desirable outcome. A nuclear-armed East is unlikely so long as NATO and the United States hold firm and insist that Ukraine's pre-2014 borders are fully restored and guaranteed in any final settlement with Russia.
An essential component of this guarantee would be a U.S. and Western European decision to admit Ukraine into NATO.

James S. Fay is a California attorney, political scientist, and semi-retired college administrator. A graduate of Georgetown, he has a Ph.D. from the University of Michigan and a J.D. from the University of California. His articles have appeared in social science and law journals and the Wall Street Journal, the Los Angeles Times, and Real Clear Education. He served as an U.S. Army intelligence officer in Germany.

 

jward

passin' thru

China simulates ‘Z-day’ total sea war with the US​


Gabriel Honrada​




China has just simulated a total war scenario at sea with the United States, an exercise that highlighted the People’s Liberation Army-Navy’s formidable challenges in a potential high-intensity conflict with an advanced, determined and highly-capable adversary.
South China Morning Post (SCMP) reported that researchers from the PLA’s Unit 91404 recently added a “total war” scenario when testing and evaluating the performance of new weapons. Unit 91404 is responsible for the sea tests of some of China’s latest and most potent naval weapons.

The SCMP report notes that the researchers published their “Z-day” total war scenario in the peer-reviewed Chinese Journal of Ship Research last month. The report mentions that the researchers assumed that the Chinese military was under all-out attack by a hypothetical “blue alliance” with Arleigh Burke-class destroyers.
In the simulation, the PLA-N had nearly 50 destroyers, with each attacked with 11 missiles and more than three torpedoes coming from multiple directions.

The report also mentions the blue alliance generated jamming noises 30 times stronger than the signal PLA-N warships use for communication and that the detection range of Chinese radar was reduced to 60% below normal.
Those conditions destroyed almost a third of the Chinese destroyer’s air defense capabilities, with only half of their surface-to-air (SAM) missiles hitting their targets. Chinese naval experts who independently assessed the simulation results were quoted as saying the figures are “realistic.”
By highlighting weapon capabilities in doomsday scenarios, military forces can showcase readiness and deter potential adversaries from engaging in conflicts, researchers in the SCMP report said, with one saying that their paper is not intended to be viewed as a “horror movie.”
A Chinese Type 055 cruiser firing a YJ-18 supersonic anti-ship missile. Photo: Sina News
The Unit 91404 simulation follows on another conducted by a Chinese university wherein China had the upper hand over the US in a starkly different outcome.

In May 2023, Asia Times reported that researchers from the North University of China ran a war game simulating a Chinese hypersonic missile attack on a US carrier battlegroup, marking the first publicized simulation of its type.
The war game reportedly simulated a situation where the USS Gerald Ford supercarrier and its escorts continued approaching a China-held island in the South China Sea despite repeated warnings to turn back.
In that simulation, China used 24 hypersonic missiles in a three-wave attack to sink the USS Gerald Ford, the USS San Jacinto Ticonderoga-class cruiser, and four Arleigh Burke Flight IIA guided missile destroyers.
The first missile wave depleted the US fleet’s 264 interceptor missiles and sank the USS San Jacinto, while the second wave sank the USS Gerald Ford. The last wave finished off the surviving Arleigh Burke destroyers.

The North University of China simulation highlighted the importance of sea-based surveillance, patrol missions and lure tactics to identify targets, conserve limited missiles and reduce the number of interceptor missiles.
The US has also conducted simulations of a Taiwan Strait war with China, which unsurprisingly ended in its favor while projecting the potentially enormous costs of such a conflict.
In January 2023, Asia Times reported that Washington DC-based Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) think tank had conducted a simulation of the US and its allies repelling a Chinese invasion of Taiwan, showing that while the US could potentially repel China a victory would come at a staggering cost.
Even in the most optimistic scenario, the US and Japan combined lost 449 combat aircraft and 43 ships, including two aircraft carriers, with the US losing 6,960 personnel and 3,200 killed in action. Taiwan lost half its air force, 22 ships, and 3,500 ground troops, with a third killed in action in the simulation.
China fared the worst in the simulation, losing 138 ships, 155 combat aircraft and 52,000 ground troops. China’s ground troop losses included 7,000 battle casualties with a third killed in action, 15,000 troops lost at sea with half assumed killed and 30,000 prisoners of war from Taiwan-landing force survivors.

The simulation mentions four critical assumptions for a US victory in Taiwan.
First,
as China’s logistics weaken, Taiwan must hold the line to contain China’s beachhead and counterattack in force.
Second, the US and its allies must accept that there is no “Ukraine model” for Taiwan since China can blockade the self-governing island for weeks or months to prevent resupply.
Third, the US must be able to use its bases in Japan, which would be the critical linchpin for US operations around Taiwan.
Fourth, the US must be able to strike China’s warships from outside its anti-access/area denial (A2/AD) bubble.

Emerging technologies would likely play a decisive role in defending Taiwan, although they may not be enough to avert a Pyrrhic outcome for either side.
In May 2022, Asia Times reported that the US Air Force’s Warfighting Integration Capability (AFWIC) office and RAND think tank conducted a Taiwan conflict simulation that demonstrated the decisive effect drone swarms would have in such a contingency.
Drones-Drone-Swarms.jpg
Artist’s concept of a drone swarm. Credit: C4ISRNET
Using a line-of-sight laser “mesh” network to transmit and receive data, drone swarms deployed in the simulation were effectively autonomous, sharing flight and targeting data instantaneously and constantly between individual drones.
Drone swarms could form a decoy screen for manned US aircraft such as the F-22 and F-35, extending the latter’s onboard sensor range and enabling them to observe electronic silence.
They could also significantly increase the situational awareness and target acquisition capabilities of manned platforms while flooding enemy radar scopes with multiple targets, forcing the enemy to waste limited missiles and ammunition while manned platforms later move in for the kill.

Technologies such as machine learning and artificial intelligence would allow drone swarms to look at targets from multiple angles, cross-check various targeting data streams and suggest the best way to attack a target.
While revolutionary from a war-fighting perspective, drone swarms may not be enough to prevent a Pyrrhic outcome for the US and its allies in a potential Taiwan Strait conflict with China.

 

jward

passin' thru

U.S. Is Destroying the Last of Its Once-Vast Chemical Weapons Arsenal​


Dave Philipps and John Ismay​



PUEBLO, Colo. — In a sealed room behind a gantlet of armed guards and three rows of high barbed wire at the Army’s Pueblo Chemical Depot in Colorado, a team of robotic arms was busily disassembling some of the last of the United States’ vast and ghastly stockpile of chemical weapons.

In went artillery shells filled with deadly mustard agent that the Army had been storing for more than 70 years. The bright yellow robots pierced, drained and washed each shell, then baked it at 1,500 degrees Fahrenheit. Out came inert and harmless scrap metal, falling off a conveyor belt into an ordinary brown dumpster with a resounding clank.
“That’s the sound of a chemical weapon dying,” said Kingston Reif, who spent years pushing for disarmament outside government and is now the deputy assistant secretary of defense for threat reduction and arms control. He smiled as another shell clanked into the dumpster.

The destruction of the stockpile has taken decades, and the Army says the work is just about finished. The depot near Pueblo destroyed its last weapon in June; the remaining handful at another depot in Kentucky will be destroyed in the next few days. And when they are gone, all of the world’s publicly declared chemical weapons will have been eliminated.
The U.S. stockpile, built up over generations, was shocking in its scale: Cluster bombs and land mines filled with nerve agent. Artillery shells that could blanket whole forests with a blistering mustard fog. Tanks full of poison that could be loaded on jets and sprayed on targets below.

They were a class of weapons deemed so inhumane that their use was condemned after World War I, but even so, the United States and other powers continued to develop and amass them. Some held deadlier versions of the chlorine and mustard agents made infamous in the trenches of the Western Front. Others held nerve agents developed later, like VX and Sarin, that are lethal even in tiny quantities.
U.S. armed forces are not known to have used lethal chemical weapons in battle since 1918, though during the Vietnam War they used herbicides such as Agent Orange that were harmful to humans.
The United States once also had a sprawling germ warfare and biological weapons program; those weapons were destroyed in the 1970s.

The United States and the Soviet Union agreed in principle in 1989 to destroy their chemical weapons stockpiles, and when the Senate ratified the Chemical Weapons Convention in 1997, the United States and other signatories committed to getting rid of chemical weapons once and for all.
But destroying them has not been easy: They were built to be fired, not disassembled. The combination of explosives and poison makes them exceptionally dangerous to handle.
Defense Department officials once projected that the job could be done in a few years at a cost of about $1.4 billion. It is now wrapping up decades behind schedule, at a cost close to $42 billion — 2,900% over budget.

But it’s done.

“It’s been an ordeal, that’s for sure — I wondered if I would ever see the day,” said Craig Williams, who started pushing for the safe destruction of the stockpile in 1984 when he learned that the Army was storing tons of chemical weapons five miles from his house, at the Blue Grass Army Depot near Richmond, Kentucky.
“We had to fight, and it took a long time, but I think we should be very proud,” he said. “This is the first time, globally, that an entire class of weapons of mass destruction will be destroyed.”
Other powers have also destroyed their declared stockpiles: Britain in 2007, India in 2009, Russia in 2017. But Pentagon officials caution that chemical weapons have not been eradicated entirely. A few nations never signed the treaty, and some that did, notably Russia, appear to have retained undeclared stocks.

Nor did the treaty end the use of chemical weapons by rogue states and terrorist groups. Forces loyal to President Bashar Assad of Syria used chemical weapons in the country numerous times between 2013 and 2019. According to the IHS Conflict Monitor, a London-based intelligence collection and analysis service, fighters from the Islamic State group used chemical weapons at least 52 times in Iraq and Syria from 2014 to 2016.
The immense U.S. stockpile and the decades-long effort to dispose of it are both a monument to human folly and a testament to human potential, people involved say. The job took so long in part because citizens and lawmakers insisted that the work be done without endangering surrounding communities.

Late in June at the 15,000-acre Blue Grass depot, workers carefully pulled fiberglass shipping tubes holding Sarin-filled rockets out of earth-covered concrete storage bunkers and drove them to a series of buildings for processing.
Workers inside, wearing protective suits and gloves, X-rayed the tubes to see if the warheads inside were leaking, then sent them down a conveyor to meet their doom.
It was the last time humans would ever handle the weapons. From there, robots did the rest.
Chemical munitions all share essentially the same design: a thin-walled warhead filled with liquid agent and a small explosive charge to burst it open on the battlefield, leaving a spray of small droplets, mist and vapor — the “poison gas” that soldiers have feared from the Somme to the Tigris.
For generations, the U.S. military vowed to use chemical weapons only in response to an enemy chemical attack — and then set out to amass so many that no enemy would dare. By the 1960s the United States had a highly secret network of manufacturing plants and storage complexes around the globe.

The public knew little about how vast and deadly the stockpile had grown until a snowy spring morning in 1968, when 5,600 sheep mysteriously died on land adjacent to an Army test site in Utah.
Under pressure from Congress, military leaders acknowledged that the Army had been testing VX nearby, that it was storing chemical weapons at facilities in eight states and that it was testing them in the open air at a number of locations, including one site 25 miles from Baltimore.

Once the public learned the scope of the program, the long path to destruction began.
At first, the Army wanted to do openly what it had done secretly for years with outdated chemical munitions: load them onto obsolete ships and then scuttle the ships at sea. But the public responded with fury.
Plan B was to burn the stockpiles in huge incinerators — but that plan, too, hit a wall of opposition.
Williams was a 36-year-old Vietnam War veteran and cabinetmaker in 1984 when Army officials announced that nerve agent would be burned at the Blue Grass depot.
“There were a lot of people asking questions about what would come out of the stack, and we weren’t getting any answers,” he said.

Outraged, he and others organized opposition to the incinerators, lobbied lawmakers and brought in experts who argued that the incinerators would spew toxins.
Incinerators in Alabama, Arkansas, Oregon and Utah, and one on Johnston Atoll in the Pacific, were used to destroy a large part of the stockpile, but activists blocked them in four other states.
Following orders from Congress to find another way, the Defense Department developed new techniques to destroy chemical weapons without burning.

“We had to figure it out as we went,” said Walton Levi, a chemical engineer at the Pueblo depot, who started working in the field after college in 1987 and now plans to retire once the last round is destroyed.
At Pueblo, each shell is pierced by a robot arm, and the mustard agent inside is sucked out. The shell is washed and baked to destroy any remaining traces. The mustard agent is diluted in hot water, then broken down by bacteria in a process not unlike the one used in sewage treatment plants.
It yields a residue that is mostly ordinary table salt, Levi said, but is laced with heavy metals that require handling as hazardous waste.

“Bacteria are amazing,” Levi said as he watched shells being destroyed during the last day of operations at Pueblo. “Find the right ones, and they’ll eat just about anything.”
The process is similar at the Blue Grass depot. Liquid nerve agents drained from those warheads are mixed with water and caustic soda and then heated and stirred. The resultant liquid, called hydrolysate, is trucked to a facility outside Port Arthur, Texas, where it is incinerated.

“It’s a good piece of history to have behind us,” said Candace M. Coyle, the Army’s project manager for the Blue Grass depot. “That’s the best part about it, is that it’s not going to harm anyone.”
Irene Kornelly, the chair of the citizens’ advisory commission that has overseen the process at Pueblo for 30 years, has kept track as nearly 1 million mustard shells were destroyed. Now 77, she stood leaning on a cane and craned her neck to see the last one be scrapped.
“Honestly, I never thought this day would come,” she said. “The military didn’t know if they could trust the people, and the people didn’t know if they could trust the military.”

She looked around at the plant’s beige buildings and the empty concrete storage bunkers on the Colorado prairie beyond. Nearby, a crowd of workers in coveralls with emergency gas masks slung on their hips gathered to celebrate. The plant manager blasted “The Final Countdown” on the PA and handed out red, white and blue Bomb Pops.
Kornelly smiled as she took it all in. The process had been smooth, safe, and so plodding, she said, that many residents of the region had forgotten it was going on.

“Most people today don’t have a clue that this all happened — they never had to worry about it,” she said. She paused, then added, “And I think that’s just as well.”
c.2023 The New York Times Company
 

Housecarl

On TB every waking moment
Hummm....

Posted for fair use.....

Opinion: Whatever happened to Mutually Assured Destruction?​

1 hr 39 mins ago

Opinion by David A. Andelman
(CNN) — The last time there was a single nuclear weapon outside of Russia, in the swath of Europe dominated by the Soviet Union and its Warsaw Pact allies, was on June 1, 1996. That’s when the final nuclear warhead, deployed in Ukraine by the now-dismantled Soviet Union, was transferred to back to Russia – which, in theory, owned and controlled all of them.

This transfer was the product of an agreement between presidents Bill Clinton, Boris Yeltsin and Ukraine’s Leonid Kuchma, that all such weapons would be transferred to Russia for elimination, and in return, Ukraine would receive iron-clad assurances of security and compensation.

That agreement was clearly breached the moment Russian troops rolled across Ukraine’s frontiers in February 2022, if not by the seizure of Crimea by Russia in March 2014.

Now, there is a new breach, a new threat and a new risk of destabilization. On June 14, Belarus President Alexander Lukashenko announced that his country had taken delivery of the first of a collection of tactical nuclear weapons from Russia. While designed only for limited use on local battlefields, he said some are three times more powerful than the atomic bombs the US dropped on Hiroshima and Nagasaki, devastating both cities in 1945.

Far be it for me to shout, “Chicken Little, the sky is falling.” But consider the scenario. Belarus has both a nuclear arsenal and a president who for decades has quietly played the role of Putin’s lap dog. And indeed, in a press conference Thursday in Minsk, he did claim to being in lockstep with Putin — adding that the nuclear weapons were for defensive purposes only.

At the same time, there is still broad fear in the West and in Ukraine that this purpose could shift on a dime. The weapons themselves certainly have both defensive and offensive capabilities, depending on how their masters make use of them.

In the same press conference, Lukashenko nodded to the fact that those nuclear weapons were under Russia’s control. He said that were Russia to use nuclear weapons, “I am sure that it would consult with its closest ally,” adding that the weapons “are under reliable protection.” In other words, the button is not Lukashenko’s to push.

Meanwhile, the nuclear threat is expected to be high on the agenda of the summit of NATO leaders, including President Joe Biden, which will convene next week in Vilnius, capital of Lithuania, barely 20 miles from the tense 420-mile border this NATO member shares with Belarus. The agenda could also include the potentially explosive issue of NATO membership for Ukraine.

In a joint news conference in Brussels with NATO secretary general Jens Stoltenberg last month, Estonia’s prime minister Kaja Kallas called Belarus “unpredictable and dangerous.” In turn, with a preview of the NATO summit, Stoltenberg added, “We must keep our defenses strong to send a clear message to Moscow and Minsk that NATO protects every inch of allied territory.”

Especially with nukes now deployed right next door. There are, functionally, few remaining restraints on the arsenals of any nuclear power – not least the US and Russia, which together account for 90% of the nuclear weapons on earth.

But above all, what seems to be in a degree of jeopardy is a concept that kept the nuclear peace for a half century or more – throughout the Cold War and a host of regional conflicts – a concept called Mutually Assured Destruction or MAD.

Now largely forgotten or ignored, it was during the Cold War that the concept of MAD came into broad use to define the precarious balance between the then two, paired superpowers – the US and the Soviet Union. This concept held that the fear of certain retaliation and utter destruction of their nation, if not all life on earth, would inevitably follow the use of any such weapons.

This clear and present fear would preclude their use and was the ultimate guarantor of peace. The question today is whether the growing pace of threats from Russia of the possible use of devastating nuclear weapons against Ukraine could mean the end of such a concept’s viability.

With the transfer of the weapons to Belarus, the UN’s disarmament chief, Izumi Nakamitsu, warned the Security Council that the risk of nuclear weapons use was “higher than at any time since the Cold War.”

So whatever happened to MAD? It hasn’t exactly gone away, but many of the restraints may be coming undone. There are, for instance, no more nuclear arms control treaties still extant and functioning between the US and Russia. Former President Donald Trump pulled out of the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces (INF) Treaty in August 2019.

In February 2021, at the start of the Biden administration, the only other remaining treaty between the two powers, known as New START, was extended for five years until 2026. In February 2023, Russian President Vladimir Putin announced he was “suspending” his country’s participation. Secretary of State Antony Blinken promptly calling this action “deeply unfortunate and irresponsible.”

Indeed, about the only real agreement remaining is MAD – then and now unwritten but still viable, though depending on the perhaps elusive good sense of the leaders of the two nuclear superpowers.

So, are we returning to the days of duck-and-cover, when, as I still recall as though it were yesterday, an air-raid drill sounded, we would crouch beneath our little wooden desks in kindergarten and cover our heads? As though that would preserve us from the inferno of a nuclear blast?

“The condition of MAD still exists between the US and Russia, the consequence of all the nukes each side has,” Michael Mandelbaum, professor emeritus of American foreign policy at Johns Hopkins School of Advanced International Studies, one of the leading experts on MAD told me in an email.

“In the early ’60s American officials worried that the Soviet Union would launch a less-than-all-out attack, reasoning that the US would not respond in a way that might trigger Armageddon,” he said.

Today, Mandelbaum, author of “The Four Ages of American Foreign Policy: Weak Power, Great Power, Superpower, Hyperpower,” continued, “It’s conceivable that Putin might calculate that he could use a nuke against Ukraine and get away with it. I have the impression that the US government is well aware of this possibility and has communicated to the Russian side the various non-nuclear steps NATO could take in retaliation.”

So much depends on the view of one man – Vladimir Putin. But he has more to gain for himself, not to mention his people or humanity (for which he seems to have less regard) by hewing to the spirit, if not the letter, of MAD.

Keeping the nuclear genie contained, rather than unleashing it on a wing and a prayer, is truly the best, indeed, the only path. Somehow, he must be convinced this is also in his own best interest.
 

jward

passin' thru
dailymail.co.uk


Russian nuke bombers engage in war games drill ahead of NATO summit​


Will Stewart​




Vladimir Putin sent up two supersonic White Swan Tu-160 nuclear bomber planes as part of a 12-hour war game mission, it was disclosed today, ahead of a NATO summit in neighbouring Lithuania.
The two planes flew more than 5,600 miles before landing at an Arctic base after the marathon flight, which involved two refuelling sessions by Il-78 aircraft.

The exact route of the wargaming flights was not disclosed but the planes are regularly deployed in the Norwegian Sea north of Britain, and the Barents Sea.
Russian officials said long-range strategic strike aircraft from Engels air base in Saratov, in European Russia, and Amur in the Far East were involved in the drills.

The war games, which come as a clear warning to NATO amid regular rhetoric from the Putin regime about using nuclear missiles - involved more than ten strike Tu-160 and Tu-95MS planes and support aircraft in total.
NATO's summit next week in Vilnius is expected to reaffirm Western support for Kyiv and edge Ukraine closer to full-scale membership of the defensive alliance in the teeth of Russian opposition.

Russian bombers perform a mid-air refuelling
The flight and tactical exercise involved 'more than 10 Tu-160, Tu-95MS, and Il-78 aircraft', according to Lt-Gen Sergey Kobylash, commander of Russian long-range aviation.

'Despite performing combat tasks during the special military operation [war against Ukraine], all planned combat training activities are being carried out in full.

'The flight and tactical exercises of aviation regiments of the Engels and Amur long-range aviation formations were launched.'

The Tu-160 planes landed in Arctic air base Sovetsky near Vorkuta - in Russia's Komi Republic - after the long flights.

'A pair of strategic missile-carrying Tu-95MS planes landed at the airfield of Anadyr in the Chukotka Autonomous Area and strategic missile-carrying airplanes Tu-160 landed at the airfield of Sovetskiy in the Komi Republic,' said Kobylash.

The Tu-160 - NATO reporting name Blackjack - is a Russian supersonic variable-sweep wing strategic missile-carrying bomber, dating from the Soviet era.

It originally entered service in 1987, and is the world's largest and heaviest combat aircraft - and the fastest bomber in use.

The Tu-95MS planes - known as Bears - are the world's only propeller-powered strategic bombers.

Both type of planes have been used to target Ukraine with conventional missiles in Putin's brutal war.

The flights came as Russia prepares to introduce new models of the Soviet-era White Swans into service.

The first prototype of the modernised Tu-160M was delivered seven months ago and this week the start of state trials were announced.

'The Tu-160 is the most important part of the Russian nuclear triad, so the modernisation of combat vehicles and the resumption of production of these strategic bombers is our priority task,' said close Putin crony Sergey Chemezov, general director of Rostec State Corporation.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky meanwhile is drumming up support for Ukraine's bid for NATO membership ahead of next week's summit
Meanwhile, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky called on NATO leaders to take concrete steps towards Ukrainian membership at the summit next week, and he received support during a visit to Prague from the Czech president, who backed Kyiv's bid to join the alliance.

He said his country, engaged in the 17th month of a war against Russian invaders, needed much more than the general statement of more than 10 years' standing that the door to NATO was merely 'open'.

Ukraine is seeking a clear indication from NATO at a July 11-12 summit in Vilnius that it can join the military alliance when the war ends.

Ukraine wants to join as quickly as possible, but NATO members have been divided over how fast that step should be taken. Some member countries are wary of moves they fear could take the alliance closer to an active war with Russia.

'We are talking about a clear signal, some concrete things in the direction of an invitation,' Zelensky told a news conference alongside his Czech counterpart, Petr Pavel. 'We need this motivation. We need honesty in our relations.'

Zelensky said the formulation adopted by a 2008 NATO summit was not sufficient - that the military alliance's door 'will remain open' and that Ukraine would eventually become a member.

'We need some kind of signal, a clear one,' he said in response to journalists' questions.

'That Ukraine will be in the alliance. Not that the door is open - this is not enough.'

videos and photos at source.
 

Housecarl

On TB every waking moment
Posted for fair use.....

Neutral nations Austria and Switzerland agree to join European Sky Shield Initiative

Switzerland made clear that it will “examine” areas where co-operation can be strengthened, with a plan to specifically address information exchange and training for the US-made Patriot air defense system, of which it ordered five units in June 2021.​

By TIM MARTIN on July 07, 2023 at 12:44 PM

BELFAST — The militarily neutral nations of Austria and Switzerland have both signed a Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) to join the German-led European Sky Shield Initiative (ESSI) based around development of a common ground-based air defense (GBAD) capability.

Klaudia Tanner, Austria’s minister of defense, and Viola Amherd, Switzerland’s minister of defense, signed the MoU in Bern, Switzerland, today alongside Boris Pistorius, Germany’s minister of defense.

“The purpose of the ESSI is to better coordinate and, if necessary, bundle air defense procurement projects in Europe in order to use economies of scale and improve interoperability,” noted Switzerland’s Federal Department of Defence, Civil Protection and Sport in a statement.

A total of 17 countries have already joined ESSI, first launched in October 2022. Switzerland made clear that it will “examine” areas where co-operation can be strengthened, with a plan to specifically address information exchange and training for the US-made Patriot air defense system, of which it ordered five units in June 2021.

It highlighted that cost savings could be achieved by opting for just an approach. The small nation’s historic neutrality, which legally bars it from participating in wars “between states” but allows it to “ensure its own defence,” will not be compromised by the decision to join ESSI, the state said.

“Switzerland and Austria have set out their reservations about neutrality in an additional declaration, for example to rule out any participation in or involvement in international military conflicts,” added the Swiss statement.

NATO stresses that ESSI will allow partners to develop a missile defense system “using interoperable, off-the-shelf solutions.”

View: https://twitter.com/BMVg_Bundeswehr/status/1677261698611179521?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1677261698611179521%7Ctwgr%5E98219c135e88bae198d71d60037628068397e07f%7Ctwcon%5Es1_&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fbreakingdefense.com%2F2023%2F07%2Fneutral-nations-austria-and-switzerland-agree-to-join-european-sky-shield-initiative%2F


Current equipment plans for Sky Shield are focused on a proposal from Germany for the short-range air defense Iris-T system manufactured by German defense firm Diehl, America’s Rayethon’s medium-range Patriot PAC-3 and Israel Aerospace Industries’s long range Arrow 3 missile system.

However, France has strongly pushed back against the German plans, opposing “non-European” solutions, and remains unwilling to join Sky Shield.

“What comes to us from non-European third parties is obviously less manageable, subject to timetables, queues, priorities, sometimes third-country authorizations and too dependent on the outside world,” French President Emmanuel Macron was quoted as saying by Le Monde newspaper, during a European air defense conference held on the sidelines of the Paris Air Show in June.

The report also said that France had decided to procure “several hundred” MBDA-manufactured Mistral short-range surface-to-air missiles to counter ESSI.
 

jward

passin' thru

Lebanon’s Military Could Be the Next Casualty of Its Economic Crisis​


Francisco Serrano​





It’s been almost a year since Elias—whose name has been changed to protect his identity—officially became a deserter from the Lebanese armed forces. As a specialized technician with over a decade in the army, he had been making the equivalent of $1,300 month. But then Lebanon’s economic crisis hit in 2019. By the time he stopped reporting for duty as an aircraft mechanic in the summer of 2022, his salary had gone down to roughly $60.

Elias tried to leave his military life behind through official channels. In 2021, he sent in his resignation letter, which because he had already completed his 10-year contract with the army should have allowed him to leave. But after he received no official response from military authorities, he stopped showing up for service.
He now works in digital media and no longer carries his ID card, lest he be stopped at a checkpoint and have his military status discovered. “I’m starting from zero,” he told me over a beer in Badaro, a neighborhood in east Beirut.
Elias’ story mirrors that of many other Lebanese soldiers and security forces personnel. The country’s economy, based on a tenuous banking system described by many economists as a Ponzi scheme, began to unravel in 2019. The ensuing devaluation of the Lebanese lira has rendered most state salaries worthless and pushed much of the middle class into poverty. Whatever savings people still have were reduced to a fraction of their worth and remain stuck in banks through informal capital controls.

The financial crisis, worsened by the COVID-19 pandemic and the Beirut Port explosion in August 2020, has pushed the country into a slow-burning collapse. But given Lebanon’s sectarian political system and history of internal conflict, the state’s inability to properly fund its armed forces—estimated to number between 70,000 and 80,000 personnel—could result in a rapid deterioration of security.
An exact number of desertions from Lebanon’s military is difficult to come by. But thousands of soldiers have reportedly stopped showing up for military service since the start of the crisis. Others took advantage of foreign trips while on military duty to simply not return to Lebanon. Reached for comment, the Lebanese military did not respond to inquiries regarding desertion numbers and the overall state of the military.
With crumbling public services and no solution to the crisis in sight, the role of the armed forces has become even more crucial. “People trust the army,” says Khalil Helou, a retired general who served for 28 years. “It is a symbol of the Lebanese state at a time of great difficulties.”

Helou believes that, despite its current challenges, the army is for the most part still fulfilling its duties. But he also admits that the rising pressure could worsen the situation. “The lack of economic security has an impact on moral, because the soldiers are obviously worrying about how they can support their families,” he acknowledges.

As Lebanon’s bankrupted state continues its downward trajectory, its weakened army often appears to be the only thing holding the country together.


Under the current strains, and in order to avoid more desertions, the military is now allowing soldiers to take on other jobs when they are not on duty, as a means to shore up their reduced incomes. Helou says the measure is not unprecedented, pointing to a similar move implemented during Lebanon’s civil war, which lasted from 1975 until 1990.
Allowing soldiers to have second jobs might partially mitigate the problem. However, without a long-term solution, desertions will continue. A reduction of the military’s operational capabilities would endanger critical missions, such as border control and internal security. Moreover, it would strengthen the role of party-affiliated militias, especially Hezbollah, which has seen its influence grow over the past several years and often acts as a state within the state.
During a donor conference organized by France in June 2021, Gen. Joseph Aoun, chief of the Lebanese armed forces and touted by some as a potential presidential candidate, warned that the collapse of the Lebanese army would spell the breakdown of the country itself, leading to disorder that would spread outside of Lebanon’s borders.

As recently as October 2021, the Lebanese army was forced to intervene in central Beirut when armed Shiite militias from the Hezbollah and Amal movements marched through the neighborhood of Tayouneh, near the Palace of Justice, to demand the removal of Tarek Bitar, the judge heading the investigation into the Beirut Port explosion. The fighters exchanged fire with local Christian militias, leading to an hours-long skirmish that left seven people dead and dozens injured. Without a capable army to mediate between different sectarian groups, similar armed disputes could have even worse consequences.
In the meantime, continued squabbling among politicians has led to paralysis. In mid-June, parliamentarians failed once more to elect a president on their 12th attempt, leaving Lebanon without a head of state for nine months and counting. While the country is managed by a caretaker Cabinet with reduced powers, Lebanon’s political class continues to resist any reforms or solutions that would reduce their power.

Several countries have been chipping in to avoid a disintegration of the army. The biggest contributor over time remains the United States, which has provided a total of $3 billion since 2006. In June 2022, Qatar pledged $60 million to support the Lebanese armed forces. Other countries, like France and Italy, are providing food and medical supplies, as well as some military equipment.
Just a few days ago, the U.S. Embassy in Lebanon and the United Nations Development Program, or UNDP began to distribute a monthly payment of $100 in financial aid to over 70,000 members of the army and police forces. The measure is expected to last six months.

The army has found other ways to try to make ends meet. Since the start of the crisis, it has offered 15-minute helicopter rides to tourists for $150, paid in cash. It also cut meat from soldiers’ meals.
Solving the army’s financial woes will require finding a solution for Lebanon’s broader economic crisis. But after running the country into the ground through years of mismanagement and corruption, Lebanon’s entrenched political elite have yet to offer a recovery plan that includes the necessary reforms that would unlock multilateral financial support.
Paradoxically, the army’s financing problems will only end when Lebanon exits the current crisis. But as Lebanon’s bankrupted state continues its downward trajectory, it is that same weakened army that often appears to be the only thing holding the country together.
Because he is considered a deserter, Elias could be detained and hauled in front of a military tribunal. The army still holds his passport, which prevents him from traveling abroad. And should he end up in a police station, he will likely be identified as a deserter. Despite the danger of arrest, Elias feels the army is taking a certain level of leniency toward cases like his..

“In normal times, my name would be on a list, and they would go to my address to look for me,” he said. “But if my name is on a list, that list is probably so big by now that they can’t or won’t deal with it.”
He could just as well be talking about the political elite’s approach to dealing with Lebanon’s crisis.
Francisco Serrano is a journalist, writer and analyst. His work has appeared in Foreign Policy, Al-Monitor, Weapons of Reason, The Outpost, Foreign Affairs and other outlets. His latest book, “As Ruínas da Década,” about the Middle East in the decade after the 2011 popular revolts, was published in 2022.

Lebanon’s Military Could Be the Next Casualty of Its Economic Crisis
 
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