WAR 11-26-2016-to-12-02-2016_____****THE****WINDS****of****WAR****

[Housecarl]

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https://www.aei.org/publication/the-showdown-for-control-of-turkeys-military/

Michael Rubin @mrubin1971
November 29, 2016 10:29 am | AEIdeas

The showdown for control of Turkey’s military
Foreign and Defense Policy, Middle East

Much of the reason why so many diplomats and analysts got the trajectory of Turkey so wrong for so long is that they focused on the cosmetic over the substantive. They focused upon the debate about head scarves in schools and universities, but ignored changes to the make-up of the executive board of the Savings Deposit Insurance Fund (TMSF), even though it was the latter which allowed Prime Minister (and now President) Recep Tayyip Erdogan to target his opponents’ financial holdings and business interests.

Many analysts — whether out of laziness or ideological antipathy toward those raising alarms — also dismissed concerns that Erdogan had a transformative religious agenda. A decade ago, Daniel Fried, at the time an assistant secretary of state, insisted that Erdogan’s Justice and Development Party (AKP) was simply “a kind of Muslim version of a Christian Democratic Party.” He—or the State Department he was representing—simply did not want to believe Erdogan’s agenda was to unravel the republic Atatürk established and replace it with an Islamic Republic.

Regulations and appointments matter. Personnel is policy, and even minor tweaks of rules can amplify into something far greater. It is in this context that Erdogan’s appointments last week suggest the likelihood of violence is increasing. Erdogan has already transformed Turkey into an Islamic Republic in all but name. Now he appears intent on building his own Turkish equivalent of an Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, loyal to him and the ideology of his slow motion revolution.

Consider Article 18, published here, in the Official Gazette which allows the Turkish military to rehire retired military personnel for regular service or as recruiters. This allows Erdogan to bring back thousands of officers fired in the late 1990s because of their ties to the Islamists. Further, they can return without penalty since Erdogan passed a law three years ago granting retirement rights to those purged at the level they would have enjoyed had they not been fired.

A month ago, I wrote about the strange case of Gen. (ret.) Adnan Tanriverdi, the head of SADAT, a paramilitary group and Special Forces training group, whom Erdogan appointed to be his military counsel. Tanriverdi was purged in the wake of the soft 1997 coup because of his Islamist ties, and he appears to have been bent on revenge for the past two decades. SADAT has thousands of retired military officers and Islamists working for them, and they could soon find themselves officially in the ranks of the NATO’s second largest military by manpower.

That’s bad for democracy and bad for NATO—eyewitnesses suggest SADAT was behind many of the murders on the evening of the failed July 15 coup that Erdogan subsequently blamed on followers of exiled cleric Fethullah Gülen.

But it also foreshadows coming violence in Turkey. Erdogan makes alliances of convenience before turning on former allies when they are no longer needed. He has embraced and then discarded the likes of Abdullah Gül, Ahmet Davutoğlu, Kurdish leaders, and Gülen. It will happen to Devlet Bahçeli, the chairman of the Nationalist Movement Party (MHP), although he may be blind to his fate and, regardless, is more a pawn than a competitor. The battle that looms largest now is the coming showdown between Erdogan and Dogu Perincek, a former Maoist turned ultranationalist who has backed Erdogan only so far as the Turkish president takes on their mutual enemies: Kurds, Gülenists, and liberals.

By infiltrating hundreds of his followers into the military, Perincek has ensconced himself as its behind-the-scenes powerbroker. Erdogan’s efforts to flood the military with SADAT veterans is meant to shift the power within the institution. It’s a game of chess for military primacy within Turkey. That Article 18 in the Official Gazette’s orders also allows the retired soldiers to serve as recruiters is significant because it means SADAT will now be enlisting and hiring soldiers and military students.

This is already causing grumbling within the current ranks of the military. Perincek’s people have no choice but to resist or concede defeat. Resistance means violence or, perhaps, another coup attempt. Only two things are certain: First, the Turkish army will become dominated in the coming months by either SADAT or Perincek, but not by both. The former will benefit Erdogan, while the latter will likely mean the Turkish leader’s demise. The second certainty is that whoever wins, NATO and hopes of a Western-oriented Turkey will lose. Erdogan has killed democracy, the free press, and the independence of the judiciary. Now it is Turkey’s military’s turn for ruin.

 

[Housecarl]

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http://www.scout.com/military/warrior/story/1677991-sm-3iia-interceptor-to-attack-missile-target

Video

The Pentagon's Missile Defense Agency Will Test-Fire its New Larger SM-3IIA Interceptor Missile in Space

Kris Osborn
Yesterday at 5:51 PM

The SM-3 IIA can hit bigger targets, such as incoming enemy ballistic missiles, at longer distances than previous SM-3 interceptor missiles

The Missile Defense Agency and Raytheon will soon fire fire a new SM-3 missile variant into space to destroy an approaching enemy missile target - as a way to develop a new interceptor better able to detect and destroy ballistic missile threats approaching the earth’s atmosphere from space.

The new missile, called the SM-3IIA, is slated to fire from a land-based missile defense site planned by the Pentagon for Poland by 2018, a Missile Defense Agency spokesman, told Scout Warrior in a statement.

SM-3 missiles, first deployed on Navy ships, are exo-atmospheric interceptor missiles designed to destroy short and intermediate range incoming enemy ballistic missiles in above the earth’s atmosphere. With the weapon, threats are destroyed in space during what’s described as the mid-course phase of flight.

"The SM-3 Block IIA missile is beingThe SM-3 IIA guided missile is a larger version of the SM-3 IB in terms of boosters and the kinetic warhead, which allows for increased operating time. The second and third stage boosters on the SM-IIA are 21" in diameter, allowing for longer flight* times and engagements of threats higher in the exo-atmosphere," Missile Defense Agency spokesman Christopher Szkrybalo told Scout Warrior in a statement*

The SM-3 Block IIA is jointly developed by the*U.S. and Japan.*The U.S. and Japan are working together to prepare for the next flight test ofthe SM3-IIA, designated SFTM-01, Missile Defense Agency officials told Scout Warrior.*

The objective of this test is to demonstrate an intercept of a medium-range ballistic missile target by an SM-3-IIA launched from a U.S. Aegis BMD configured ship at the Pacific Missile Range Facility,*Szkrybalo added.*

The planned Poland 2018 deployment is a key part of what the Pentagon calls the Aegis Ashore program, an effort to leverage the ship-based Aegis Radar for land-fired missile defense technology. As of last year, Aegis Ashore locations are already operational in Romania as part of the Obama administration’s European Phased Adaptive Approach program.

The concept with the program is to engineer a land-based missile defense envelope, by using already successful and operational Aegis Radar and SM-3 technology, to better protect the European continent from potential ballistic missile threats.

While not specifically identified for particular countries such as Iran, Russia or other potentially hostile Middle Eastern Countries, the sites are designed to protect Europe and NATO allies from the broadest possible range of missile threats to Europe. Land-based defensive intercept missiles in Romania and Poland, such as the SM-3 variants, could knock-out and destroy approaching missile threats aimed at European targets.

The SM-3 is a kinetic energy warhead able to travel more than 600 miles per hour; it carries no explosive but instead relies on the sheer force of impact and collision to destroy an enemy target.

The new SM-3IIA missile builds upon a smaller existing operational variant of the missile called the SM-3IB, Raytheon officials said. *

“This is an extended capbility of what we have for the SM-3 1B. *Because of the larger missile this is a 21-inch air frame. we have a larger area of defended area coverage. we've also brought in some capability advancements into our kinetic warhead so now we have a higher sensitivity - so that is just better seeker,” Amy Cohen, Raytheon SM-3 Director, told Scout Warrior in an interview.

*The SM-3IIA is still finishing up development and is slated for flight test in the second half of this year. The MDA and Raytheon test will assess the kinetic warhead and missile seeker in a space environment, Cohen explained.

An improved seeker can better see approaching targets from longer distances compared to the SM-3 1B, she added.

Some of these improvements engineered into the missile are described as “sensitivity increases” which use a larger focal plane array for detection and more computer processing power.

The SM-3 Block IIA has completed two very successful fly-out tests—with no target missile launched, Missile Defense Agency officials said. *

“The first intercept flight test is planned for second half of this year. We will be engaging against a medium range ballistic missile - the next flight test we have will get us to the point where we have the trajectory very solid that we are there to support EPAA phase III in Poland,” Cohen added.

In December of last year, Raytheon received a $543 million SM-3IIA production contract to build the missiles. Some of these missiles will be sent to Poland for the Aegis Ashore site planned for 2018, officials said.

Production of the missile involves a collaborative effort between the Raytheon in the U.S. and Japan.* Both Japan and Raytheon produce 50-percent of the missile which is then integrated by Raytheon.

Meanwhile, Raytheon and the MDA are also upgrading the existing SM-3IB missile with improved software such that it can better detect and destroy new threats, Kenyon Hiser, Raytheon’s SM-3 Block IIA program manager.

Some of the technologies designed for the SM-3IIA are being retrofitted onto the SM-3IB, he added.

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Video

Pentagon Develops New Missile Defense Interceptor Able to Destroy Multiple ICBM Threats

Kris Osborn
Monday at 3:24 PM

The Multi-Object Kill Vehicle can simultaneously destroy ICBMs and decoys with a single interceptor

The Pentagon’s Missile Defense Agency is in the early phases of engineering a next-generation “Star Wars”-type technology able to knock multiple incoming enemy targets out of space with a single interceptor, officials said.

The new system, called Multi-Object Kill Vehicle, or MOKV, is designed to release from a Ground Based Interceptor and destroy approaching Inter Continental Ballistic Missiles, or ICBMs -- and also take out decoys traveling alongside the incoming missile threat.

*“We will develop and test, by 2017, MOKV command and control strategies in both digital and hardware-in-the-loop venues that will prove we can manage the engagements of many kill vehicles on many targets from a single interceptor. We will also invest in the communication architectures and guidance technology that support this game-changing approach,” a spokesman for the Missile Defense Agency, told Scout Warrior a few months ago. *

Decoys or countermeasures are missile-like structures, objects or technologies designed to throw off or confuse the targeting and guidance systems of an approaching interceptor in order to increase the probability that the actual missile can travel through to its target.

If the seeker or guidance systems of a “kill vehicle” technology on a Ground Base Interceptor, or GBI, cannot discern an actual nuclear-armed ICBM from a decoy – the dangerous missile is more likely to pass through and avoid being destroyed. *MOKV is being developed to address this threat scenario.

The Missile Defense Agency has awarded MOKV development deals to Boeing, Lockheed and Raytheon as part of a risk-reduction phase able to move the technology forward, Lehner said.

Steve Nicholls, Director of Advanced Air & Missile Defense Systems for Raytheon, told Scout Warrior the MOKV is being developed to provide the MDA with “a key capability for its Ballistic*Missile Defense System - to*discriminate lethal objects*from countermeasures and debris. The kill vehicle, launched from the ground-based interceptor*extends the ground-based discrimination*capability with onboard sensors and processing to ensure the real threat is eliminated.”

MOKV could well be described as a new technological step in the ongoing maturation of what was originally conceived of in the Reagan era as “Star Wars” – the idea of using an interceptor missile to knock out or destroy an incoming enemy nuclear missile in space. This concept was originally greeted with skepticism and hesitation as something that was not technologically feasible.

Not only has this technology come to fruition in many respects, but the capability continues to evolve with systems like MOKV. MOKV, to begin formal product development by 2022, is being engineered with a host of innovations to include new sensors, signal processors, communications technologies and robotic manufacturing automation for high-rate tactical weapons systems, Nicholls explained.

The trajectory of an enemy ICBM includes an initial “boost” phase where it launches from the surface up into space, a “midcourse” phase where it travels in space above the earth’s atmosphere and a “terminal” phase wherein it re-enters the earth’s atmosphere and descends to its target. MOKV is engineered to destroy threats in the “midcourse” phase while the missile is traveling through space.

An ability to destroy decoys as well as actual ICBMs is increasingly vital in today’s fast-changing technological landscape because potential adversaries continue to develop more sophisticated missiles, countermeasures and decoy systems designed to make it much harder for interceptor missile to distinguish a decoy from an actual missile.

*As a result, a single intercept able to destroy multiple targets massively increases the likelihood that the incoming ICBM threat will actually be destroyed more quickly without needing to fire another Ground Based Interceptor. *

Raytheon describes its developmental approach as one that hinges upon what’s called “open-architecture,” a strategy designed to engineer systems with the ability to easily embrace and integrate new technologies as they emerge. *This strategy will allow the MOKV platform to better adjust to fast-changing threats, Nicholls said.

The MDA development plan includes the current concept definition phase, followed by risk reduction and proof of concept phases leading to a full development program, notionally beginning in fiscal year 2022, Nicholls explained.

“This highly advanced and highly technical kill vehicle takes a true dedication of time and expertise to properly mature. It is essential to leverage advancements from other members of the Raytheon kill vehicle family, including the Redesigned Kill Vehicle,” Nicholls said. *

While the initial development of MOKV is aimed at configuring the “kill vehicle” for a GBI, there is early thinking about integrating the technology onto a Standard Missile-3, or SM-3, an interceptor missile also able to knock incoming ICBMs out of space.The SM-3 is also an exo-atmopheric "kill vehicle," meaning it can destroy short and intermediate range incoming targets; its "kill vehilce" has no explosives but rather uses kinetic energy to collide with and obliterate its target. The resulting impact is the equivalent to a 10-ton truck traveling at 600 mph, Raytheon statements said.*

“Ultimately, these Multi-Object Kill Vehicles will revolutionize our missile defense architecture, substantially reducing the interceptor inventory required to defeat an evolving and more capable threat to the homeland,” an MDA official said.

 

[Housecarl]

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https://www.stratfor.com/analysis/russias-path-another-resurgence

Russia's Path to Another Resurgence

Analysis December 1, 2016 | 09:16 GMT

Summary

After enduring three years of a foundering economy and feuds with the West, things may be looking up for Russia. The Brexit vote in June exposed the deep discord in the European Union, giving Moscow a glimmer of hope that dissenting member states might break the bloc's consensus on its sanctions against Russia in a future vote on their renewal. Though EU members decided unanimously in July to extend the measures, upcoming elections on the Continent*could undermine the bloc's unity. In the United States, meanwhile, Donald Trump's victory in the presidential election has opened a potential path to warmer relations between the United States and Russia, and perhaps even an end to Washington's sanctions on Moscow. The turning political tides in Brussels and Washington could give the Kremlin the leeway to increase its influence in the former Soviet Union, leading the countries in Russia's periphery to re-evaluate their foreign policy positions.

Analysis

Many of Russia's recent setbacks trace back to 2014. In February of that year, the Euromaidan protests in Ukraine culminated in an uprising that ousted President Viktor Yanukovich from office. The next month, Crimea declared its independence from Ukraine, and Moscow annexed the region and extended support to a separatist rebellion in Ukraine's eastern part of the country. In response, the European Union and United States imposed sanctions on Russia.*A few months later, global oil prices began a precipitous decline, and by year's end had fallen nearly by half. The combination of lower oil prices and sanctions plunged Russia into recession and put it on a collision course with the West. At the same time, countries such as Ukraine, Moldova and Georgia worked to strengthen their ties to the European Union and NATO. In the span of a year, the Ukrainian conflict and the oil slump conspired to reverse the gains that Moscow had made over much of the past decade in re-establishing its influence in its former Soviet periphery.

Taking Another Look at the West

But now, Russia's fortunes could change. Countries throughout the former Soviet Union have taken notice of the shifts occurring in Europe and the United States and are likely re-evaluating their positions with respect to the West as a result. In Moldova, the results of the Nov. 13 presidential election, which ushered the pro-Russia leader of the country's Socialist Party into power, have already demonstrated the country's ebbing interest in drawing closer to the West. Because Moldova's parliament and prime minister still favor integration with the West, however, the president-elect, Igor Dodon, is unlikely to steer the country full sail toward an alliance with Moscow. Nevertheless, he will try to foster deeper economic and political ties with Russia. Georgia, too, has already begun to soften certain aspects of its stance on the breakaway territories of Abkhazia and South Ossetia, which were at the center of the country's short-lived war with Russia in 2008. Furthermore, in the wake of its own parliamentary elections in October, Georgia is also likely to increase its economic ties with Moscow in the coming year.

https://www.stratfor.com/sites/defa.../images/former-soviet-union.png?itok=4-d0LueI

Though Ukraine has relied on economic and political support from the West — along with the assurance of sustained pressure on Moscow through sanctions — throughout its conflict with Russia, the government in Kiev cannot be certain that the backing will continue uninterrupted. Unlike Moldova, Ukraine is unlikely to elect a pro-Russia leader, given the enduring conflict in eastern Ukraine. But the changing political circumstances in Europe and the United States could force the Ukrainian government to temper its position on the Minsk protocols and take a more conciliatory approach to negotiations with Russia over eastern Ukraine. In the meantime, Kiev may try to redouble its military integration with Poland and the Baltic states in case NATO members, in particular the United States, scale back their security presence in Central and Eastern Europe.

Reconsidering Russia

Former Soviet countries that were already firmly aligned with Russia will also take stock of their ties to Moscow and the West in light of the political changes afoot. Despite its long-standing military alliance with Russia, Belarus began slowly but surely warming to the West over the past year — a process that could now be stalled or even reversed. By contrast, Armenia came to question its steadfast loyalty to Russia when fighting with Azerbaijan over the contested Nagorno-Karabakh region erupted anew in April. The feud escalated perhaps in part because Russia was too distracted at the time with the conflicts in Syria and Ukraine to intervene. If the West offers Moscow fewer challenges under new administrations in the United States and Europe, however, it will be in a better position to assert its authority as the dispute's primary arbiter.

Even countries that have stayed more or less neutral in the standoff between Russia and the West may adjust their stance. Russia recently held talks aimed at strengthening military cooperation with Uzbekistan and Azerbaijan, former Soviet states that have increasingly looked to expand their relationship with Moscow in areas such as arms purchases and training. Moscow may also have a chance to reinvigorate integration initiatives such as the Eurasian Economic Union or the Collective Security Treaty Organization, since Europe's growing political rifts are likely to interfere with the European Union's focus on its Eastern Partnership program.

Over the next year, as a new administration takes over in Washington and the European Union's splits widen, Russia may seize the opportunity to regain influence in many of its borderland states. But its comeback in the former Soviet states will fall far short of the one it experienced in the late 2000s, when Russia's economy was thriving and its political system was free of the turmoil currently bedeviling it. Even if the West eases sanctions on Moscow in 2017, moreover, the United States and NATO are hardly likely to abandon their allies in Russia's periphery. Still, the political transformations underway in Europe and the United States could give Moscow more room to restore its standing throughout Eurasia.*

 

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http://www.reuters.com/article/us-libya-security-idUSKBN13Q5C9

World News | Thu Dec 1, 2016 | 12:34pm EST

Armed groups mobilize, exchange fire in tense Tripoli

By Ahmed Elumami | TRIPOLI

Gunfire could be heard over Tripoli on Thursday as armed groups mobilized heavy weapons and took up positions in several parts of the Libyan capital.

Militias that hold effective power across the city clash frequently, but the shooting was heavier than usual and tanks and armed convoys could be seen in some areas.

The immediate cause of the latest violence was not clear.

Tripoli is controlled by a patchwork of armed groups, some with a quasi official status. Fighting is often sparked by turf wars or revenge attacks, while armed groups are also divided between those that support a U.N.-backed government that arrived in the capital in March and those that oppose it.

After the 2011 uprising against Muammar Gaddafi, Libya splintered into rival fiefdoms controlled by groups originally made up of former rebels.

Rival alliances fought for control of the capital in 2014, after which competing governments and parliaments were set up in Tripoli and the east.

The U.N.-backed Government of National Accord (GNA) was tasked with uniting Libya's warring factions but has struggled to assert its authority in Tripoli and has been rejected by power brokers in the east.

Recently the government it displaced in Tripoli has attempted a comeback, regaining control of the Rixos hotel, which was meant to house a new legislative body under the deal that created the GNA.

Military vehicles were seen mobilizing near the Rixos on Thursday and shops in the area closed amid rising tension. Military vehicles including tanks could also be seen in Bab Benghashir and Abu Salim neighborhoods, while clashes were reported in Abu Salim and Hadba districts.

The city center was calm but residents were rushing to do shopping and head home before nightfall.

The French Foreign Ministry issued a statement saying France was "very worried by the escalation of violence between armed groups in Tripoli".

"(France) is in close contact with (GNA) Prime Minister Fayez Seraj and supports his efforts to restore the authority of the state, especially in Tripoli," the statement said.

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There was also fighting on Thursday in Libya's second city, Benghazi, where forces loyal to eastern commander Khalifa Haftar have been waging a military campaign against Islamists and other opponents for more than two years.

There were sporadic clashes and air raids around the besieged district of Ganfouda, one of the last holdouts against Haftar's Libyan National Army (LNA). The LNA launched its latest assault on the area on Wednesday.

A medical official said 11 men from the LNA had been killed and 36 wounded in two days of fighting.

(Additional reporting by Ayman al-Warfalli in Benghazi and John Irish in Paris; Writing by Aidan Lewis)

 

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http://www.reuters.com/article/us-colombia-peace-idUSKBN13Q5B9

World News | Thu Dec 1, 2016 | 12:22pm EST

Colombia to rush approval of new peace deal, pending court decision

Colombia's government is ready to speed the passage of laws and reforms so it can carry out a peace deal with leftist FARC rebels, pending approval from the constitutional court, officials said on Thursday.

Both the senate and the lower house backed the accord in votes this week, giving necessary legislative approval to the deal to end 52 years of war in which more than 220,000 people have been killed and millions displaced.

But rebels from the Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia (FARC) said they would not begin demobilizing until parts of the accord, including an amnesty law for most fighters, are approved by lawmakers. The government hopes the court will allow those laws to move ahead more quickly than normal by cutting the number of required debates.

"We expect a decision in the coming days and based on that decision of the Constitutional Court we can proceed to the implementation of the accords," Interior Minister Juan Fernando Cristo told journalists.

The coalition of President Juan Manuel Santos, who won the Nobel Peace Prize in October, has a majority in congress and the laws are likely to pass easily. The right-wing opposition, led by former president and now senator Alvaro Uribe, demand that FARC leaders get traditional jail time and refused to vote on the deal.

The agreement to end Latin America's longest insurgency was put together in just over a month after the original pact was narrowly defeated in a referendum on Oct. 2.

The amnesty law, which would protect rebels not involved in war crimes or human rights violations from prosecution, would be the first to go to lawmakers, Cristo said. Some 7,000 fighters are set to lay down their weapons under the deal.

Other laws would include rural reform, victims compensation, removal of land mines and a United Nations-monitored ceasefire all agreed to in the peace deal. The FARC, which started as a rebellion fighting rural poverty, would be allowed to form a political party.

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Though Colombians want an end to bloodshed, many in the largely conservative country of 49 million are wary of forgiving the FARC for decades of bombings, kidnappings and displacements.

(Reporting by Luis Jaime Acosta; Writing by Julia Symmes Cobb; Editing by Helen Murphy and Grant McCool)


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http://www.upi.com/Top_News/World-N...ted-terror-attacks-in-two-days/5281480581327/

Home / Top News / World News

Manila on high terror alert after two attempted terror attacks in two days

Police officials said they arrested two "persons of interest" in connection with an attempted bombing at the U.S. embassy, one day before a successful bombing of President Rodrigo Duterte's advance team.

By Stephen Feller **|** Dec. 1, 2016 at 4:26 AM

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Police in the Philippines detained two men on Wednesday in connection with an IED found outside the U.S. embassy Monday morning, parts of which were shown to reporters at a press conference on Nov. 28. The attempted bombing was one of two this week, with the other injuring several people in Philippine President Rodrigo Duterte's advance team on Tuesday. Photo by Mark R. Cristino/European Pressphoto Agency


MANILA, Dec. 1 (UPI) -- Officials in the Philippines raised the terror alert level to its highest point there in 16 years following an attempted bombing at the U.S. embassy on Monday and successful bombing of President Rodrigo Duterte's advance team on Tuesday.

The security alert in the Philippines was raised to Level 3 on Thursday morning, officials said, a day after they arrested two men in connection with the attempted embassy bombing. Security is expected to be increased around the country and police say to expect more raids on suspected terrorists.

The two people arrested in connection to a bomb found outside the U.S. embassy by a street sweeper were described by National Capital Region Police Office Chief Superintendent Oscar Albayalde as "persons of interest," but not necessarily suspects.

The two men are members of Ansar al-Khalifa, one of several groups in Mindanao inspired by the Islamic State, also known as ISIS, ISIL and Daesh. Government forces have been going after terror groups in Mindanao, including killing 19 militants during a raid after an attack last week.

The IED found Monday is similar to one used in Davao City in September that killed at least 14 people. Had it detonated, Albavalde said it would have affected everything within a 330-foot radius.

Tuesday's attack on Duterte's advance team in Mindanao injured seven members of the Presidential Broadcast Staff and two soldiers. Duterte held his scheduled visit the next day with no problems.

Like Us on Facebook for more stories from UPI.com**

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Does Kim Jong Un Want Peace Deal With U.S.?

Expert suggests he wants peace, but with a fairly large price tag attached.

By Curt Mills | Staff Writer Dec. 1, 2016, at 2:33 p.m.

North Korean leader Kim Jong Un reportedly wants a peace treaty with the United States, so long as North Korea has access to nuclear weapons. (KCNA/AFP/Getty Images)

North Korean leader Kim Jong Un wants a peace treaty with the United States, as long as it accedes to Pyongyang's primary goal: nuclear weapons.

"What does Kim Jong Un want? … He wants a peace treaty with the United States as a nuclear weapons state. I think that's what he wants," said Dr. Victor Cha, the Korea chair for the Center for Strategic and International Studies, speaking Thursday at that organization's security forum in Washington.

North Korea nuclear proliferation remains one of the international community's most precarious challenges. President Barack Obama reportedly told President-elect Donald Trump earlier this month that a nuclear North Korea is the top security issue the United States faces.

[REPORT: North Korea Continues Support for ‘Nazi-Style’ Prison Camps ]

Most countries reject Pyongyang's ambitions, but the Kim government is seen as wanting the weapon for its own security against South Korea and the United States, and the North has said as much.

Another analyst at the CSIS forum noted that Kim seeks continued internal stability for his government.

"He wants to be able to maintain total control of the type of government that he has, with him as the pure dictator," said retired General Walter L. Sharp, the former commander of United States Forces Korea.

During the campaign Trump expressed an openness to speaking directly with Kim, in a departure from U.S. practice. He also expressed a willingness to allow more states, such as Japan and South Korea, to acquire nuclear weapons. He did not mention North Korea in that list, however, instead saying Japan might need the weapon as protection against Pyongyang.

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"I would speak to him, I would have no problem speaking to him," Trump said on talking to Kim, adding that China could be potentially persuaded to pressure North Korea in "one meeting or one phone call."

But Michael Flynn, the retired lieutenant general who Trump has tapped as his National Security Adviser, might not be so open to speaking to North Korea, The New York Times reported Wednesday.

In a book Flynn co-authored that was released earlier this year, he pitted North Korea, and China, as part of a global anti-U.S. alliance.

"The war is on. We face a working coalition that extends from North Korea and China to Russia, Iran, Syria, Cuba, Bolivia, Venezuela and Nicaragua. We are under attack," Flynn wrote. "No surprise that we are facing an alliance between Radical Islamists and regimes in Havana, Pyongyang, Moscow and Beijing."


Japan, U.S., South Korea agree to increase pressure on North Korea
Inform

Tags: North Korea, Kim Jong Un, United States, Donald Trump, Barack Obama, nuclear weapons, military

Curt Mills Staff Writer
Curt Mills is a news writer at U.S. News & World Report. Email him at cmills@usnews.com.

 

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http://www.foxnews.com/world/2016/12/01/south-korea-japan-announce-new-sanctions-on-north-korea.html

South Korea, Japan announce new sanctions on North Korea

Published December 01, 2016
Associated Press

SEOUL, South Korea – *South Korea and Japan on Friday announced their own fresh, unilateral sanctions on North Korea as their nuclear-armed neighbor warns of retaliation against toughened U.N. sanctions over the nuclear and missile tests it conducted this year.

It's still unclear if and how much the South Korean and Japanese measures will sting North Korea, which has been under multiple rounds of U.N. sanctions for years. Trade and exchange programs between the rivals Koreas also largely remain suspended.

The U.N. Security Council voted Wednesday to tighten North Korea sanctions by placing a cap on coal exports, one of the country's main sources for foreign currency. Pyongyang accused Washington of masterminding the sanction and threatened to take unspecified self-defense measures that it said would aggravate regional animosities.

South Korea said Friday it blacklisted dozens of new high-profile North Korean officials and entities by banning South Koreans from engaging in financial dealing with them. Among the North Korean officials are Choe Ryong Hae and Hwang Pyong So, two of leader Kim Jong Un's closest associates, and the blacklisted entities include those involved in coal exports and the dispatch of laborers abroad, according to a South Korean government statement.

The statement said it'll sanction a China-based company and four of its executives for allegedly assisting financial activities by a North Korean bank sanctioned by the U.N. But the company has no assets in South Korea, according to Seoul officials. Earlier this year, the U.S. Justice Department already unsealed criminal charges against Dandong Hongxiang Industrial Development Co. and the individuals.

South Korea said it will also prohibit Seoul-based foreign nuclear and missile experts from re-entering the country if they visit North Korea and commit activities that threaten South Korea's national interest.

In Tokyo, Japan said it was also renewing its sanctions against North Korea. Chief Cabinet Secretary Yoshihide Suga told reporters about the decision and criticized the missile launches and nuclear tests as "a new threat that must not be allowed."

Japan already has in place sanctions against North Korea. Suga said Japan will renew efforts to bring home all Japanese abducted by North Korea, as well as more strictly blocking visits from North Korean officials and penalizing related groups, including those in China.

The United States was expected to disclose its own additional sanctions on North Korea, according to Seoul's Foreign Ministry.

U.S., South Korean and Japanese officials stressed the need to impose harsher sanctions after the North conducted its fifth and most powerful nuclear test in September.
__

Associated Press writer Yuri Kageyama in Tokyo contributed to this report.

 

[Housecarl]

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Posted for fair use.....
http://allafrica.com/stories/201612020078.html

1 December 2016
Al Jazeera (Doha)

South Sudan Denies UN Allegations of 'Ethnic Cleansing'

South Sudan President Salva Kiir denied allegations by the United Nations that ethnic cleansing in the country's conflict is so bad that the stage is set for genocide.

A UN commission on human rights in South Sudan said a steady process of ethnic cleansing was under way in the country, involving massacres, starvation, gang rape and the destruction of villages.

On Wednesday, three commission members who had travelled around South Sudan for 10 days said they observed deepening divisions in a country with 64 ethnic groups.

However, President Kiir strongly denied the allegations on Thursday.

"There's no such thing in South Sudan. There's no ethnic cleansing," he told Reuters news agency in the South African city of Johannesburg.

Security guards prevented further questions.

More than one million people have fled South Sudan since the conflict erupted in December 2013 after Kiir fired Riek Machar as vice-president.

It is the largest mass exodus of any conflict in central Africa since the 1994 Rwandan genocide.

The fighting has mostly pitted Kiir's Dinkas, the dominant ethnic group estimated to be roughly one-third of the population, against Machar's Nuer tribe.

But as fighting has spread to southern border states, known as Greater Equatoria, it has sucked in dozens of other ethnic groups that are also historically in conflict with the Dinka.

More than 4,000 people have been crossing daily into Uganda, where the Bidibidi refugee settlement, open since August, now hosts some 188,000 people.

READ MORE: Ethnic cleansing under way in South Sudan, says UN
Another 36,600 refugees have reached Ethiopia since early September, and more than 57,000 fled to Congo this year.

"We don't have sufficient means to help them," said Medard Mokobke Mabe, coordinator for the Red Cross in DRC's village of Karukwat, estimating more than 100 refugees arrive each day.

"There isn't food to eat."

Casie Copeland, a researcher with the International Crisis Group, said the world had turned a blind eye to the fighting in its newest country, whose independence from Sudan in 2011 was strongly backed by the United States and other Western nations.

"From the war's outset, the UN never tried to maintain a death toll," she said.

"Guesses vary from 50,000 up to 300,000. It demonstrates a shocking lack of humanity that no one has tried to establish the scale of violence."

OPINION: Save South Sudan from destroying itself

UN spokesman Farhan Haq said its mission in South Sudan had faced numerous challenges accessing affected areas, but was doing all it could to establish death tolls and other human rights violations.

Chairman of the commission that travelled to South Sudan, Yasmin Sooka, told a news conference there was "already a steady process of ethnic cleansing under way in several areas of South Sudan using starvation, gang rape and the burning of villages".

"The stage is being set for a repeat of what happened in Rwanda and the international community is under an obligation to prevent it," she said.

Sooka then told Al Jazeera there were "so many different groups of armed actors, including the military who are talking about dealing with a rebellion and putting it down".

"You have ethnic tensions because people have been displaced from their land based on ethnicity. Everybody believes that a military conflict is almost inevitable in different parts of the country," she said.

Sooka described the amount of rape committed by all armed groups in the country as "mind-boggling".

"Aid workers describe gang rape as so prevalent that it's become 'normal' in this warped environment. But what does that say about us that we accept this and thereby condemn these women to this unspeakable fate?"

South Sudan
UN - 'Ethnic Cleansing Under Way'
A UN commission on human rights in South Sudan has said a steady process of ethnic cleansing is under way in the…*Read*more*»

This story from Al Jazeera was supplied to AllAfrica under an agreement with the African Media Agency.

 

[Housecarl]

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http://www.reuters.com/article/us-hongkong-singapore-taiwan-analysis-idUSKBN13R0N3

World News | Fri Dec 2, 2016 | 2:57am EST

Singapore may prove a tough nut for China to crack over regional security

Armored troop carriers, belonging to Singapore, are detained at a cargo terminal in Hong Kong, China November 28, 2016. REUTERS/Bobby Yip/File Photo

By Greg Torode and Marius Zaharia | HONG KONG/SINGAPORE

As the impounding of Singaporean troop carriers in Hong Kong exposes rising tensions between China and Singapore, the Lion City is unlikely to budge on core security interests concerning Beijing – its military relationship with Taiwan, worries over the South China Sea and its hosting of the U.S. military.

Singaporean officials, retired military officers and analysts stress that even while Singapore publicly plays down the spat, its leadership will not easily give in to what it sees as intimidation on matters of national importance.

All three points – Taiwan, the South China Sea and its deepening relationship with the Pentagon - reflect positions refined over decades as the tiny island state seeks to secure itself in a region now undergoing historic strategic shifts amid China's rise.

But those shifts mean the pressure is intensifying and Singapore risks being isolated as neighbors including the Philippines, a U.S. ally, and Malaysia tilt towards Beijing.

"Singapore will not be bullied and backed up against a wall," said Tim Huxley, an expert on Singapore's military at the International Institute for Strategic Studies. "(It) will take a determined stand on issues that it sees as important – and the importance of the issues at hand should not be underestimated."

Hong Kong customs last week seized nine armored troop carriers being shipped from Taiwan to Singapore after military exercises, prompting warnings from Beijing about maintaining ties with an island it regards as a breakaway province.

"VANGUARD OF ANTI-CHINA COALITION"

The dispute has erupted at a period of apparent vulnerability for Singapore, with its economy slowing and questions over the trade and security policies of incoming U.S. President Donald Trump.

Singapore has enhanced its long standing security relations with Washington over the last 18 months, and now hosts revolving deployments of vessels and U.S. P-8 surveillance planes that regional military sources say routinely target Chinese submarines.

While not a formal U.S. alliance partner, regional diplomats say it has become Washington's most important military relationship in Southeast Asia - more so since President Rodrigo Duterte's Philippine election win.

The shift has not gone unnoticed in Beijing.

"Singapore has gone from being seen as a useful facilitator of U.S.-China relations to being in the vanguard of an anti-China coalition, particularly on the South China Sea," said Zhang Baohui, a mainland security scholar at Hong Kong's Lingnan University. "The days of Beijing comfortably seeing Singapore has vaguely neutral are over, and it is reacting accordingly."

China will find Singapore harder to crack than other countries in its orbit, however, as it less beholden to Chinese security or economic pressure, given its advanced market status and international security relationships, including with the United States, he said.

"China will find Singapore defiant and able to withstand pressure, but Singapore will find itself losing influence and more isolated within Southeast Asia as countries increasingly look to China," Zhang said.

OTHER ISSUES AT PLAY

Since the seizure of the armored vehicles, Beijing has stressed its opposition to any form of official contact with Taiwan. The influential state-run tabloid, the Global Times, has been more strident, suggesting the carriers should be "melted down".

While other state media have run commentaries critical of Singapore through the year, they have been quiet on the troop carrier impounding.

Singapore has discreetly circulated thousands of troops a year through Taiwan since 1975 – a presence that survived formalizing ties with Beijing under a "one China" policy in the early 1990s.

While Singapore increasingly exploits facilities in Australia and India, as well as sending troops to Brunei and Thailand, Taiwan remains an important to Singapore given the depth of military links and diverse training options, experts and retired Singaporean officers say.

Singapore has also played a role as a diplomatic bridge between the two sides, most recently hosting the historic meeting between outgoing Taiwanese President Ma Ying-jeou and Chinese President Xi Jinping in November 2015.

Also In World News
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Singapore's Minister of Foreign Affairs Vivian Balakrishnan this week sought to play down the seizure, saying it was "not a strategic incident" and that Singapore's relationship with Taiwan was known to China.

But behind the scenes, regional diplomats say their Chinese counterparts are also making clear their rising concern at U.S. surveillance activities off coasts from assets stationed around the region.

Advanced P-8 aircraft especially are viewed by Chinese strategists as a threat to Beijing's evolving nuclear deterrent, centered on ballistic missile submarines stationed on Hainan Island.

"They are relentless on this point," one Western diplomat said. "They don't want to accept it as normal in any way."

Chinese officials and state media have accused Singapore of internationalizing matters in the South China Sea, where it is not a claimant. While Singapore insists it does not take sides in the disputes, it has stressed the importance of freedom of navigation and international norms.

As negotiations continue over the fate of the troop carriers, Singapore's Ambassador-at-Large Bilahari Kausikan made clear the issues went deeper than military materiel.
Contemporary China was "curious mixture of assertiveness and insecurity", Kausikan wrote on Facebook this week, adding he believed its leaders wanted to preserve the broader relationship.

"We are a small country and larger countries – not just China – routinely try intimidation. But because China wants us to accept the appellation of 'Chinese country' and because so many Singaporeans are of Chinese descent, their actions have a special resonance."

(Additional reporting by Christian Shepherd and Ben Blanchard in Beijing; Editing by Lincoln Feast)

 

[Housecarl]

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Posted for fair use.....
http://www.nytimes.com/2016/11/30/world/europe/eu-plans-big-increase-in-military-spending.html?_r=0

Europe

E.U. Plans Big Increase in Military Spending

By JAMES KANTER
NOV. 30, 2016

BRUSSELS — European Union officials announced plans for a big increase in military spending on Wednesday, pledging to take greater responsibility for their security at a time when the United States appears to be taking a step back in its role in the world.

The bloc’s top officials proposed spending 5.5 billion euros, or $5.8 billion, a year to help governments acquire hardware, including helicopters and drones, and to develop military technology.

Wary of concerns about consolidation of power in Brussels as member governments are under pressure from populist forces, officials stressed that the plan was in no way a step toward creating a European Union army. Member countries would own the hardware that was purchased, and much of the money would go to European companies.

But the proposal, known as the European Defense Action Plan, follows calls by Donald J. Trump, the United States president-elect, for members of NATO to devote 2 percent of their gross domestic product to military spending. (Of the 28 nations in the European Union, 22 are also part of NATO.)

“If Europe does not take care of its own security, nobody else will do it for us,” said Jean-Claude Juncker, the president of the European Commission, the executive arm of the European Union. “A strong, competitive and innovative defense industrial base is what will give us strategic autonomy.”

Total military spending by European Union governments was about €200 billion last year, but the union does not currently have a budget for military research or procurement. The plan foresees a pilot phase of €90 million, or $95 million, up to 2020 — and €500 million, or $528 million, a year after that — for research into technologies like drones and for cybersecurity tools.

A second plank of the plan foresees spending 10 times that amount to help governments develop and buy hardware. But rather than drawing on the shared European Union budget, member states would make individual contributions, and some of the money might come from project-related bonds.

Obama administration officials welcomed the increased spending. “It is no secret that we’ve been asking them to do this for years,” said one senior administration official, speaking on the condition of anonymity to discuss alliance relations. But the official also said it was imperative that Mr. Trump reassured allies that his administration’s commitment to collective defense of NATO allies would be solid.

During his presidential campaign, Mr. Trump questioned whether the United States would automatically defend NATO allies if they were attacked, and said American support would depend on the willingness of those countries to pay their fair share for military protection. But since then, a number of Republican lawmakers and foreign policy experts — including those in close contact with Mr. Trump since he won the election — have insisted that the American commitment to NATO will remain strong.

European Union leaders will discuss the proposal at a summit meeting in December. The member governments still must approve it, and that could be a lengthy process given concerns about sovereignty.

Politicians in countries like Lithuania and Poland, for example, might question whether the additional spending might be better devoted to bolstering NATO as a resurgent Russia is raising alarms in much of Central and Eastern Europe.

Britain could be an obstacle, too. It has long stood in the way of deeper European military cooperation, which London fears could undermine NATO. British voters decided in a June referendum to leave the European Union, but the lengthy process of exiting the bloc has not yet legally begun.

European officials “know that it will not be easy” to carry out the plans, Elzbieta Bienkowska, the European Union commissioner for the internal market and industry, said on Wednesday. Federica Mogherini, the union’s foreign policy chief, said the plans did not amount to competition with NATO.

Agreeing to the spending could help European countries get over a “Trump hump” created by the president-elect’s demands, said Nick Witney, a senior policy fellow at the European Council on Foreign Relations.

“This spending is very NATO-compatible, and even money from the European budget is a fair basis for a country to claim it’s chipping more into defense,” said Mr. Witney, a former chief executive of the European Defense Agency, a forum for European Union member states to cooperate on defense initiatives.

“On the other hand, the commitment to spending 2 percent on defense is meant to be about the long haul, and about genuinely readjusting national budget priorities, and I don’t see this plan as moving European NATO members much closer to that goal,” he said, adding that much of the plan was based on debt financing.

Jyrki Katainen, a vice president of the European Commission, said the timing of the plan had “nothing to do with American elections” since it had been in the works since 2014.

A longstanding goal was to avoid duplication of effort in military procurement, which is mostly done on a national basis, and to improve the compatibility of the various military hardware that European countries acquire, he said.

One example of inefficiency in European defense was the development of the Airbus A400M military aircraft, European officials said. If the proposed plan is adopted, problems that include defining where to place doors for paratroopers — which had contributed to the development of the aircraft taking about a decade longer than necessary — could be more easily resolved, they said.

The officials said more military spending could have a positive effect on the sluggish European economy.

“Boosting defense R&D in Europe is crucial to maintain critical competences and technologies! Thumbs up,” Dirk Hoke, the chief executive for Airbus Defense and Space, wrote on Twitter.

Follow James Kanter on Twitter @jameskanter.
Helene Cooper contributed reporting from Washington.

A version of this article appears in print on December 1, 2016, on page A12 of the New York edition with the headline: E.U. Plans Big Increase in Military Spending. Order Reprints| Today's Paper|Subscribe

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[Housecarl]

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Posted for fair use.....
http://www.longwarjournal.org/archi...ns-after-overrunning-district-in-kandahar.php

Taliban seizes cache of weapons after overrunning district in Kandahar

BY BILL ROGGIO | December 1st, 2016 | admin@longwarjournal.org | @billroggio

When the Taliban assaulted the district of Ghorak in Kandahar last month, it seized a number of US-made weapons that were supplied to the Afghan security forces from a base that was overrun. Additionally, a number of Afghan soldiers were killed during a nighttime assault that was captured on video.

The Taliban released a video, entitled “The Conquest of Ghorak” on its propaganda website, Voice of Jihad, on Nov. 29. The jihadist group claimed it overran Ghorak’s district center on Nov. 19 however this has not been confirmed in the Afghan press. The video gives credence to the Taliban’s claim.

The Taliban assaulted a base outside of the town of Ghorak that appears to have been manned by a company of Afghan troops during the night of Nov. 18. After heavy fighting, which was captured on a video at a distance through a night vision camera, Taliban fighters entered the base. The bodies of dozens of Afghan troops are seen laying on the ground throughout the base.

After the battle, the Taliban displayed M-16 rifles, some with grenade launchers mounted, M-249 light machine guns, and rocket-propelled grenade launchers. Additionally, the Taliban walked away with crates filled with RPG rounds and ammunition for the rifles and machine guns. Several Taliban fighters were also spotted wearing night vision goggles; it is unclear if the devices were taken from Afghan troops during the assault, or if the fighters used them during the attack.

Ghorak is situated along a belt of Taliban-controlled or contested districts in southern Afghanistan that spans the provinces of Farah, Helmand, Uruzgan and Kandahar. The Taliban has used this southern safe haven to directly threaten the capitals of Farah, Helmand, and Uruzgan. Afghan forces, backed by US advisers and airstrikes, have struggled to stave off Taliban offensives against the capitals of these three provinces.

Images from the “The Conquest of Ghorak”

Gallery

Bill Roggio is a Senior Fellow at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies and the Editor of The Long War Journal.

 

[Housecarl]

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Posted for fair use.....
http://www.longwarjournal.org/archi...se-with-the-syrian-regime-and-its-backers.php

Turkey is on a collision course with the Syrian regime and its backers

BY PATRICK MEGAHAN & MERVE TAHIROGLU | December 1, 2016 | PMegahan_@defenddemocracy.org |

http://www.longwarjournal.org/wp-content/uploads/2016/12/Euphrates_Shield_11-30-2016.jpg

Last Thursday an attack struck Turkish positions near the Islamic State-held city of al-Bab in northern Syria, killing three soldiers and wounding 10. Centered between Turkish and rebel forces in the north, the Kurds in the east and west, and the Syrian regime forces in the south, al-Bab is the point of convergence for the three competing interests in northern Syria. Conflicting reports on the perpetrators of Thursday’s attack are indicative of the complex situation with a variety of hostile actors concentrated only miles apart, with inevitable clashes among them looking closer than ever. Whether the perpetrator of Thursday’s attack will prove to be the Islamic State (ISIS) or Russian-backed Syrian regime forces, Turkey is on a collision course that it may not be prepared for.

Immediately following the attack, Turkish sources blamed the Syrian Arab Air Force (SyAAF) and issued a media ban to block inquiries into the situation. Falling on the first anniversary of Turkey’s downing of a Russian jet – an incident which caused a nine month diplomatic spat between Ankara and Moscow – the attack prompted speculation of retaliation by Russia – or by the Russian-backed SyAAF. Indeed, back and forth phone calls between the Turkish and Russian Presidents in the 48 hours following the incident strengthened such suspicions. In the meantime, however, other reports emerged indicating the attack could have been a suicide bombing by the Islamic State.

Whoever the perpetrator, the assault should serve as a wake-up call for Turkey as it advances towards al-Bab, challenging each of its many adversaries on the ground head on. With each side committed to its own gameplan, a military confrontation between the Turkish-led Euphrates Shield and pro-regime forces appear inescapable. More generally, Thursday’s attack should be an acute reminder that tensions between Ankara and Moscow are a mere spark away from reigniting the flames of only a year ago.

Since launching its intervention in Syria in August, Turkish forces partnering with Free Syrian Army (FSA) branded units have advanced south into ISIS-held territory, increasingly close to regime forces besieging Aleppo in the southwest. While the stated goal of the operation was to push the Islamic State away from the Turkish border, Ankara’s other – and all the more important – aim has been to block Kurdish territorial expansion through the Aleppo Governorate. The successful capture of ISIS-held Manbij by the Kurdish-dominated Syrian Democratic Force (SDF) in early August, combined with advances by the Kurds from the Afrin Canton in the west, was cause for alarm for Turkish leaders. Ankara has been engaged in a bloody war with the Kurdish-separatist Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK) at home for four decades, and does not differentiate between the group and its Syrian affiliate, the Peoples’ Protection Unity (YPG). Since 2014, the YPG’s fight against ISIS has allowed the Kurds to extend their territorial control in northern Syria. With the liberation of Manbij, they came close to controlling a nearly 400-miles of Turkey’s 500-mile border with Syria.

Further compounding the complexity is the US-led Coalition’s support for YPG advances in Syria, reluctantly seeing the Kurdish group and its SDF allies as the only effective local partner to destroy ISIS. This pragmatic partnership has been a major source of tension between Ankara and Washington for over a year, and the reason why Turkey launched operation Euphrates Shield without coordination with the anti-ISIS Coalition. While the US and Turkey did temporarily come to an agreement for the US to support Euphrates Shield’s southward advance, poor coordination and a lack of trust between the two NATO allies has resulted in the US pulling its air assets and special forces from participating in the effort to seize al-Bab.

Without U.S. air cover, Turkish forces are particularly vulnerable to SyAAF or Russian airstrikes if al-Bab is indeed a red line for the regime as reports suggest. The Turkish Air Force (TAF) is desperately low on pilots in the wake of July’s coup attempt and the subsequent purges of the military’s officer corps (reports indicate more than 350 pilots, including many of the force’s most experienced, were dismissed). Even if fully staffed, the TAF would struggle to penetrate Syrian air space because of the formidable Russian air defense bubble over western Syria – which extends to al-Bab and deep into Turkey.

Yet, Turkey appears undeterred, with Turkish President Tayyip Erdogan declaring that Turkey’s intervention is to “end the rule of the cruel Assad.” Moreover, the FSA branded factions fighting alongside Turkish troops are determined to advance through al-Bab and towards regime lines to help relieve their besieged comrades in Aleppo. Once al-Bab falls, whether to Turkish and FSA forces or pro-regime elements, the buffer that now separates Euphrates Shield and the regime’s eastern flank around Aleppo will be too small to prevent clashes. Such a scenario risks pulling the United States further into the Syrian theater – not to strengthen the fight against ISIS, but to defend an incorrigible NATO ally.

Patrick Megahan is a research analyst on military affairs at Foundation for Defense of Democracies, where Merve Tahiroglu is a research associate focused on Turkey. Follow them on Twitter: @PatMegahan and @MerveTahiroglu

 

[Housecarl]

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http://www.independent.co.uk/news/w...ropol-report-car-bombs-chemical-a7451591.html

Isis could unleash car bombs and chemical weapons on Europe as new terror tactics employed, Europol warns
Report warns that threat will continue even if Isis is defeated in Iraq and Syria

Lizzie Dearden @lizziedearden
6 hours ago
79 comments

Isis is likely to carry out new terror attacks across Europe in the “near future” as jihadis consider car bombings, chemical weapons and other methods to maximise casualties, security services have warned.

A new report by Europol, the EU-wide law enforcement agency, found that the terrorist group was changing its modus operandi as militants are driven out of key strongholds in Syria and Iraq.

Britain is among the top targets for atrocities, with at least 12 attempted attacks foiled in the past three years, and the threat level could now be increasing with the return of defeated foreign fighters with weapons training and links to Isis commanders.

Gilles de Kerchove, the EU’s counter-terror coordinator, said the danger will last for years as battles against Isis continue in the Middle East and North Africa.

“These people are trained to use explosives and firearms and they have been indoctrinated by the jihadist ideology,” he added.

“An effective response requires a comprehensive approach and long term commitment.”

Intelligence services estimate that several dozen jihadis under Isis’ direction are already present in Europe with the capability to commit terrorist attacks, but Europol warns of the additional risk of “lone wolf” terrorists who have no direct contact with the group.

While the deadliest attacks so far, in Paris on 13 November 2015, were directed by Isis and carried out by militants deployed from its Syrian territories, the Nice attack and a succession of terrorist murders in France, Belgium and Germany were committed by extremists with no external aid or training.

Europol’s report, by the European Counter Terrorism Centre, said the vast majority of attackers in Europe have been young men with a criminal past, who feel discriminated, humiliated and marginalised in society, and may have mental health issues.

Not all are strict Muslims and may have recently converted to the religion, or solely to Isis ideology, either on their own or through terrorist recruiters.

“Religion may thus not be the initial or primary driver of the radicalisation process, but merely offering a ‘window of opportunity’ to overcome personal issues,” analysts said.

The report raised concern that Syrian refugees may be targeted by recruiters as Isis seeks to gather support for its cause by “inflaming the migration crisis to polarise the EU population and turn sections of it against those seeking asylum”.

The group uses a network of recruiters as well as a sophisticated propaganda machine churning out videos, magazines, terror manuals and websites aimed at gathering supporters and inciting attacks.

Abu Mohammad al-Adnani, the Isis propaganda chief who was killed in a drone strike in August, released a video in May calling on anyone prevented from travelling to the so-called “caliphate” to wage jihad in their home countries.

“Make examples of the crusaders, day and night, scaring them and terrorising them, until every neighbour fears his neighbour,” he urged ahead of a fresh spate of attacks in Europe.

“Know that your targeting [of] those who are called ‘civilians’ is more beloved to us and more effective, as it is more harmful, painful, and a greater deterrent to them.”

Europol warned that potential targets are difficult to predict as all countries participating in the US-led coalition’s air strikes have been singled out in propaganda videos, with a growing preference for “soft targets” like public transport that have little security and provoke “maximum fear”.

“Indiscriminate attacks have a very powerful effect on the public in general, which is one of the main goals of terrorism: to seriously intimidate a population,” the report said, adding that attacking critical infrastructure like power grids and nuclear facilities is “currently not a priority”.

Europol also says the consensus among intelligence agencies in EU member states is that “the cyber capabilities of terrorist groups are still relatively low”, but adds that “the possibility of terrorist-affiliated cyber groups engaging in cyber warfare sponsored by Nation States – those with capacities to engage in this type of attacks – should not be discounted.”

Terrorists are known to have acquired hand grenades, rocket launchers, and high-grade plastic explosives and detonators from organised crime groups in Europe, while Isis magazines contain instructions on making TATP – the homemade explosive used in the Paris and Brussels attacks, as well as the 2005 London bombings.

Europol said suicide bombings, shootings, car rammings and stabbings are likely to remain the main mean of attacks as terrorists turn to the most easily available weapons.

But its report warned that methods used in atrocities in Syria and Iraq may be exported to Europe, including car bombs, kidnappings, extortion and the possible use of chemical or biological weapons.

Moroccan authorities dismantled an Isis cell planning attacks potentially involving chemical weapons in February, discovering biological agents among a cache of weapons from Libya to foil a “catastrophic” attack.

Libya, which remains locked in a continuing civil war following the British-backed ousting of Muammar Gaddafi, threatens to become “a second springboard” for Isis attacks on Europe, Europol’s report warned.

Militants are losing ground in their stronghold of Sirte, but the country is still a major destination for foreign fighters, bolstered by a free flow of weapons and “unlimited places in which jihadists could be trained for future terrorist attacks”.

The report also warned that Isis was not the only group with the intent and capability to carry out atrocities in the West, with al-Qaeda and its former affiliate Jabhat al-Nusra continuing to inspire attacks including the Charlie Hebdo massacre.

Rob Wainwright, the director of Europol, said police and security services were intensifying cooperation to combat the threat, causing an increase in terror arrests and the foiling of several plots.

“This shows that the increased cooperation and exchange of data between all relevant services across Europe is a successful means to mitigate the threat posed by Isis,” he added.

“Nevertheless, this report shows that the threat is still high and includes diverse components which can be only tackled by even better collaboration.”

The report concluded that the scale, frequency and impact of terror attacks was rising in the EU and that new attempts are “likely to take place in the near future”, adding: “As long as Isis remains a factor in Syria and Iraq, and even if they are defeated there, they will continue with their attempts to encourage and organise terrorist attacks in the EU.”

READ MORE
Employee of German intelligence agency 'was planning terror attack'
Brussels attacker handed 'benefits cash for terror in Birmingham'
Isis cell 'planned to attack Disneyland Paris and Champs Elysees'

 

[vestige]

E.U. Plans Big Increase in Military Spending

By JAMES KANTER
NOV. 30, 2016

They better first build a bunch of houses of ill repute to bring in some money because just like Ray Charles...

They are Busted.

bump

 

[Housecarl]

ETA: MzKitty's thread link....http://www.timebomb2000.com/vb/show...s-to-president-of-Taiwan.-China-could-get-mad.

Well this is going to get interesting.....

For links see article source.....
Posted for fair use.....
http://www.politico.com/story/2016/...wan-president-risks-diplomatic-dispute-232146

Trump's call with Taiwan president risks diplomatic dispute

By POLITICO STAFF 12/02/16 06:01 PM EST Updated 12/02/16 06:00 PM EST

President-elect Donald Trump spoke by phone on Friday with President Tsai Ing-wen of Taiwan, his transition team confirmed in a statement, a move that breaks with decades of tradition and risks a diplomatic dispute with China.

The United States and Taiwan have a strong but unofficial relationship, and Trump's phone call raises questions about whether the president-elect is seeking a policy shift.

The Trump transition team said in a statement Friday afternoon, “President-elect Trump spoke with President Tsai Ing-wen of Taiwan, who offered her congratulations. During the discussion, they noted the close economic, political, and security ties exists between Taiwan and the United States. President-elect Trump also congratulated President Tsai on becoming President of Taiwan earlier this year.”

The American Institute in Taiwan said it had no information to offer at this point. The State Department did not immediately respond to a request for comment.

Any public, warm gesture toward Taiwan could alarm China, which views Taiwan as a breakaway province. Trump has already publicly pledged to get tough on China, regularly railing against the country on the campaign trail, including during his presidential announcement speech in June 2015.

The call also reinforces questions about the blurring of his business and political activities. The Shanghaiist reported on Nov. 18 that Trump is considering building luxury resorts in Taiwan, with a Trump Organization representative visiting the city of Taoyuan in September.

Trump has held dozens of calls with world leaders since his surprise election last month, and bristled at a New York Times report that characterized his approach to the calls as haphazard. "I have recieved and taken calls from many foreign leaders despite what the failing @nytimes said. Russia, U.K., China, Saudi Arabia, Japan," Trump tweeted on Nov. 16, going on to write, "Australia, New Zealand, and more. I am always available to them. @nytimes is just upset that they looked like fools in their coverage of me."

Democratic Sen. Chris Murphy on Friday immediately warned of dire consequences from ill-informed foreign policy moves by Trump.

"What has happened in the last 48 hours is not a shift. These are major pivots in foreign policy w/out any plan. That's how wars start," Murphy said on Twitter. "And if they aren't pivots - just radical temporary deviations - allies will walk if they have no clue what we stand for. Just as bad."

Murphy also advised that Trump get some more expertise on his team, and fast. "It's probably time we get a Secretary of State nominee on board. Preferably w experience. Like, really really soon," he wrote.

Trump has made a public display of his search for his secretary of state, but it's not clear when he'll reach a final decision. However, Kellyanne Conway, a top Trump aide, on Friday morning identified the four candidates on the president-elect's short list.

"We publicly have said there are probably four people right now that have been the narrowed down choices," Conway told Fox News. "That includes Gen. [David] Petraeus and Sen. Bob Corker from Tennessee. Obviously, Gov. Romney's still in the mix. People have been talking about Mayor Giuliani."