CA/NV Earthquakes Continue to Increase

Tundra Gypsy

Veteran Member
Some of us have been watching the activity in Calif/Nevada area lately. This evening the activity is at 739; the most I've seen recently without a major earthquake to set things off. They seem to be quietly increasing in frequency without any major earthquakes in the Ca/Nv area.

I know about the large earthquake in the Tonga area; but these little quakes have been slowly and steadily increasing day by day. Very strange if you ask me. Letting off pressure? Maybe, or building......

http://quake.wr.usgs.gov/recenteqs/
 

CAgdma

Veteran Member
I'm no expert, but I do live here.

I'm going to take this as letting off pressure....except for that blank area in the middle which I think (correct me if I am wrong) is Parkfield, which they have been watching for a very long time, because it "bulges."

Those boxes all look real small...right? Little ones, twos and even threes. Three you can feel. Rarely two, and never onsies.

Sometimes, we get a 4....and then after a larger quake, the 4 is termed a "preshock."

Then, on the other hand, we are long overdue!
 

sherbar92

Generally warm and fuzzy
When that 4 point something hit SoCal this past January, they interviewed a Caltech geologist on TV on CBS2. I posted a summary then of what he said, but will recap it now.

He said 2 things that raised my eyebrows...

One was that if a foreshock to a biggie was going to hit, it would hit in exactly the place the January quake hit.

The other was that the 4 point something quake was not letting off steam, but was instead indicative of major stressors building up on the Southern San Andreas zone. That second part really surprised me because I always thought small ones were good for releasing stress, but he said no, that quakes that small were not releasing near the energy they'd need to for the fault to go quiet...that it meant the energies were almost to "break point" for a big quake.

Maybe a big one is setting up.
 

cleobc

Veteran Member
If you look at the earthquake lists, you can see that sometimes there are swarms of earthquakes in a particular spot, which can really add to the overall earthquake count.

For instance, Mineral, California has been having dozens of very small earthquakes. This is interesting because it is close to dormant (not extinct) volcano Lassen.

Parkfield is not in the big blank space on the map of California, but rather more on the western edge of the Central Valley. The Central Valley doesn't have big faults in it, so few earthquakes. On the western edge, where the hills and faults are, there are many quakes, and that is where Parkfield is.

Another area that constantly has earthquakes is The Geysers in California. I finally got curious enough to look it up. Now, that's a really interesting area geologically. There are 20 some geothermal power plants operating there, and the area supposedly sits over a giant magma chamber. There are earthquakes there every day.
 

sherbar92

Generally warm and fuzzy
Please note...this article was published about eight hours before the 4.8 at the Salton Sea hit Tuesday March 24 at 455 AM...and the swarm still continued throughout the day Tuesday, with two more quakes larger than 3 and quite a few smaller ones.

ETA: Make that 3 more quakes 3.0 or larger...a 3.0 hit at 1050 PM as I was posting this story!!

http://www.latimes.com/news/local/la-me-quakes24-2009mar24,0,6429356.story

At the Salton Sea, a warning sign of the Big One?

Swarm of small quakes in the Salton Sea area has scientists wondering if faults there are transferring energy to the larger San Andreas, where a major temblor could occur.

By Jia-Rui Chong
9:06 PM PDT, March 23, 2009

<!-- sphereit start -->Scientists are watching closely to see if small faults crossing under the Salton Sea are transferring energy to the larger, more dangerous San Andreas fault after a series of small quake swarms in the area.

The quakes appeared to be tapering off by Monday afternoon, according to the monitoring system run by the U.S. Geological Survey and Caltech. (note...but then the 4.8 hit on Tuesday morning!!) But in a 48-hour period starting Saturday morning, 42 quakes shook just south of Bombay Beach on the Salton Sea. The quakes ranged in magnitude from 0.5 to 3.3, with three larger than 3.0 hitting the area Saturday afternoon.




Scientists are particularly interested in the area because an earthquake that starts in Bombay Beach and ripples northwest along the San Andreas fault could be the Big One that devastates Los Angeles, said Graham Kent, a research geophysicist at UC San Diego.

These quakes appear to be taking place at the hazy intersection of several recently mapped faults crossing beneath the Salton Sea and the the San Andreas fault.

The worry for scientists comes from a case in 1987, when a magnitude-6.2 earthquake on one of the crossing faults appeared to trigger a 6.6 quake 12 hours later on the Superstition Hills fault to the south. The San Andreas fault is north of these crossing faults and the geometry is similar, Kent said.


This swarm, he said, "is a flashing yellow light that tells you to be prepared and to spend some time trying to understand the significance."

These last time a swarm of this type occurred in the area was 2001, so they are not especially unusual, said Kate Hutton, a seismologist at Caltech.

Hutton said scientists do not yet know if quakes this small can trigger anything dangerous on the San Andreas.

"Every time you have a swarm of earthquakes, it does raise the chances of having a larger quake, but it doesn't raise it a huge number," she said.
 

sherbar92

Generally warm and fuzzy
http://sciencedude.freedomblogging.com/2009/03/24/48-quake-on-san-andreas-raises/22739/

4.8 quake on San Andreas raises worry about “swarm”

March 24th, 2009, 7:46 am · 35 Comments · posted by Gary Robbins, science writer-editor

Bombay Beach area of Salton Sea has been experiencing earthquake swarm since early last weekend.


Updated at 12:05 p.m.

A magnitude 4.8 earthquake occurred near the southern San Andreas fault at 4:55 a.m. today, the biggest pop yet in a ’swarm’ of quakes in the Bombay Beach area of the Salton Sea. The shaking was felt as far west as Santa Ana, Orange and Anaheim.

(Did you feel it: grobbins@ocregister.com)

“This is nothing to be alarmed about; there is a very low probability of larger activity,” says Susan Hough, a seismologist at the U.S. Geological Survey in Pasadena, and author of the upcoming book, “Predicting the Unpredictable.”

(Follow local quakes on Twitter at quakeoc)

Hough’s remarks come one day after the Scripps Institution of Oceanography issued an highly unusual news advisory noting that a swarm of small quakes had developed over the weekend in the Salton Sea, which is at the southern end of the San Andreas, one of the most dangerous faults in the world.

SIO emphasized that the quakes were not an indication that a big event was about to occur on a seismic zone that could cause catastrophic shaking in Orange County. But SIO’s advisory did say, “While earthquake swarm events are not precursors or indicators of a larger earthquake event, they are jolting reminders that Southern California will experience the Big One soon.”

Later on Monday, Scripps research geophysicist Graham Kent said, “A lot of other faults have been discovered in the Salton Sea in recent years. We’re trying to understand how they’re interconnected and if they could lead to something like the Elmore Ranch quake. If we suddenly started having quakes in the 5.0 range to 6.0 range in the Salton Sea, we’d wonder if they’d be a precursor to something bigger.”

Kent added today, “The 4.8 quake is on the high end of the types of earthquakes we already see in the Brawley seismic zone (near the southern San Andeas), which raises eye brows a little bit. But this series doesn’t look like the Elmore Ranch quake.”

In November 1987 a 6.2 quake occurred in the Elmore Ranch area. “It basically crawled out of the Salton Sea,” says Kent. Less than 12 hours later, a 6.6 quake occurred in the nearby Superstition Hills areas. ”I think the preponderance of evidence says the first quake caused the second,” Kent said.

The San Andreas runs almost the entire length of California.



Since early last weekend, the San Andreas has produced dozens of small quakes in the Salton Sea area, including a 3.1 quake at 6:52 a.m. today that occurred almost in the same spot as the 4.8 roughly two hours earlier. There have been four quakes in the 3.1 to 3.3 range since early Saturday, and they may be occurring on “cross faults,” or faults that cross main systems like the San Andreas.

Seismologists say the San Andreas is a major concern because it can produced the so-called “Big One,” a horrific event that could kill and injure thousands of people throughout the Los Angeles basin, including in Orange County. There’s also concern that a huge event on the San Andreas could cause other faults closer to Orange County — notably the San Jacinto — to break, compounding the shaking.

Last November, the state and federal government staged the Great Southern California ShakeOut, the largest quake drill in U.S. history. The drill simulated a 7.8 quake on the southern San Andreas.
 

gdpetti

Inactive
FWIW... from those Cassiopaean sessions located in the links section of their CassChat forum on Yahoo...fair use.
Session#940716:
[...]
Q: (L) What else is going to happen?
A: Seattle buried; Japan buckles; Missouri shakes; California crumbles; Arizona burns.
Q: (L) When is all this going to happen?
A: Denver Airport Scandal.
[...]
Session 941103:
[...]
A: .....[...]...Enough personal dilly dallys. Long message to follow. Pause: Ukraine explosion; chemical or nuclear. Hawaii crash; aviation, possibly involving military. More California seismic activity after 1st of year: San Diego, San Bernardino, North Bakersfield, Barstow: all are fracture points. Hollister, Palo Alto, Imperial, Ukriah, Eureka, Point Mendocino, Monterrey, Offshore San Luis Obispo, Capistrano, Carmel: these are all stress points of fracture in sequence. "Time" is indefinite. Expect gradual destruction of California economy as people begin mass exodus. Also Shasta erupts; Lassen activity. Ocean floor begins to subside. Leave channel open and pause: Queen Elizabeth serious illness: blood related. Princess Diana suicide attempt. Gas explosions this winter in NE United States, Texas and other. Supernova and unusual weather all over...[...]
[...]
Session#970920:
[...]
A: If things on your planet do indeed "heat up," as is certainly one possible future scenario from your viewpoint, it might not be a bad idea to avoid standing directly on the "burners."
Q: So you are saying that South Carolina is one of the burners that might get turned on when things heat up?
A: Where one finds faults, one shall find slippage.
Q: (F) I have heard that the most recent ideas say that the fault system that runs under the Caribbean including Montserrat, for example, juts off to the Northwest at about Charleston and then cuts under the Appalachians connecting to the New Madrid fault in Missouri in a sort of direct line from Charleston to there. (A) What year are they predicting? (F) Well, they aren't predicting anything, but they have been saying for years that there are a number of places in the Eastern United States that have been forgotten because all the attention has been on California. But, historically speaking, there have been earthquakes in several places in the Central Eastern US, some of which were worse that ANY recorded on the West Coast. ...[...]

All that said, it seems rather obvious that the entire Rim of Fire is 'heating up.'
 

knickgnat

Veteran Member
I'm in Los Angeles suburb - and live in a 1923 wood house. For the past few days, house has been having little micro creaks (at least that's what I call them). They don't corelate with those eqs reported on USGS but I take them as an alert anyway. Of course I continue my preoccupation with all things geo using the standard science sites which don't make me feel any better.
 

sherbar92

Generally warm and fuzzy
That would cause the hairs on my neck to raise, too, knickgnat.

I'm simply glad that I am home now in the VC instead of still being in Palm Springs for work. The "big one" is always on my mind these days, and the USGS maps lately have had my eyebrows raising.
 

knickgnat

Veteran Member
See my post dated March 19.....

http://www.timebomb2000.com/vb/showpost.php?p=3310442&postcount=14

Living all my life in LA, been following eq info, etc. for years. Don't remember a swarm like this with multiple 3+s which may be an aftershock sequence coming in such short intervals. Who knows maybe Mt. Redoubt erupting, and the strange occurrences with the magnetic field (which are know to be correlated with Eqs) are combining to create this unusual situation.

I don't get a newspaper, has anyone checked the lost and founds for the last several days - some theorize they go up before a "big one".
 

cleobc

Veteran Member
I have noticed my little old frame house giving more creaks and groans lately. Also, I have noticed the fault just over the hill, a mile or two away as the crow flies, has been having little one and two pointers with regularity.

Last night I remembered that there had been a sizable earthquake to the south of town just before we moved here in 1995. Since we now live south of town, I thought I'd look up where it was. Yup, on the fault just over the hill. A six-pointer. And now it's having these jitters...
 

Tundra Gypsy

Veteran Member
At 3/25/09 at 7:12 PST, there are now 815 recorded earthquakes of various sizes in CA and NV...hmmm there must be something building...this is getting interesting; never seen this many, except after a major quake. Hang on everyone in CA/NV; time to have that extra water at home; emergency bag in the car; and extra batteries for the flashlight at work.
 

knickgnat

Veteran Member
They're not letting up at all - starting to get scary....never seen anything like it (which may mean nothing duh) - it's almost as if it's volcanic tremors.
 

Breeta

Veteran Member
There are 866 quakes on the map as of march 26, 2009 at 15:12pm PDT...

what knickgnat said -- rang a bell for me --- I seem to recall an episode of California's Gold (or Huell Howser) where they went to the Salton Sea and there was some kind of geothermic activity / springs (?) there. I will have to look it up.

I remember the episode because I drove by the Salton Sea years ago when I went to a cousin's wedding, and so having been there, the episode interested me...

ETA: Mud volcanoes along the Salton Sea... I don't know how close these are to Bombay Beach, though....

http://www.goldenstateimages.com/GSI_search.php?srch=salton sea mud domes or mud volcanoes&op=ph

ETA: ok, this flicker link says this video was taken near the town of Niland - which is about 12 miles from where the Bombay Beach quakes are centered - so it's close... PERHAPS THESE QUAKES ARE VOLCANIC / GEOTHERMIC ???

http://www.flickr.com/photos/slworking/3343825220/
 

sherbar92

Generally warm and fuzzy
CBS2 did a news report on the 25th that said City of LA has emergency crews at the ready because of this swarm. The report said there's a 5% chance this could be the "big one" getting ready to go.

This continuing swarm is not good.
 

Breeta

Veteran Member
yes, it's very scary! Hearing emergency crews are geared up just made it scarier! Up to 878 quakes on the CA/NV map as of 5pm PDT...

ETA:

ACK... (bolded mine for emphasis of things i found interesting)

http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.cgi?f=/n/a/2009/03/26/state/n160630D80.DTL&type=business

(03-26) 16:09 PDT Los Angeles, CA (AP) --

An earthquake swarm near a section of the notorious San Andreas Fault that has not ruptured in more than 300 years has prompted some people 150 miles away to take action.

When Diane Scheerhorn read an e-mail from the state about the small possibility of a San Andreas temblor, she wasted no time in directing all nine elementary schools in the small district she leads to check their emergency supplies.

After weighing the pros and cons, Scheerhorn went a step further. She postponed all nighttime activities this week.

"We felt we needed to err on the side of safety," Scheerhorn, superintendent of the Centralia School District in Orange County, said Thursday. "I honestly believe our parents would want us to as well."

A swarm of more than 250 earthquakes have hit close to the southern San Andreas Fault since Saturday, ranging in magnitude from 0.8 to 4.8. The swarm is centered near the thinly populated Salton Sea region in the state's southeastern desert, but shaking can be felt in the fast-growing Coachella Valley to the northwest.

Scientists have been keeping close tabs on the swarm because it is rattling near a section of the San Andreas that last snapped in 1690. The San Andreas has the potential to unleash a "Big One" and cause serious damage to the greater Los Angeles region.

The seismic jiggling frayed the nerves of some people who wonder if the swarm is just a warm-up to a major quake. Since scientists cannot predict earthquakes the way meteorologists can forecast tomorrow's weather, the best they can say is that the latest rumblings slightly raise the probability of a San Andreas event, but the risk significantly drops off with time.

The shaking "hasn't completely died off, but it's backed off a lot," since the strongest quake in the swarm hit, said geophysicist Ken Hudnut of the U.S. Geological Survey.

Scheerhorn, the school superintendent, decided to take precautions after learning from her school safety officer that the California Emergency Management Agency e-mailed local emergency responders to alert them about the distant quake swarm.

Scheerhorn said she did not want to take the chance that something would happen during off-hours when school crisis teams trained to deal with disasters were not around. She canceled Wednesday's parenting class and Thursday's open house, where parents were supposed to meet with teachers to talk about their children's progress.

A spokeswoman with the state Emergency Management Agency said the e-mail was targeted at local emergency managers to remind people about the importance of being prepared for an earthquake and was not a "call to action."

"While there was some response that we did not anticipate from this communication, whatever the locals feel they need to do to protect lives and property, it's our job to support them," said agency spokeswoman Tina Walker.

Susan Hough, scientist-in-charge of the USGS Pasadena office, said people should not overreact to the quake swarm, but instead take the opportunity to make sure they have a disaster kit ready.

The Salton Sea area is prone to earthquake swarms, which are usually associated with the movement of hot magma or underground heated water. The state's largest lake sits on top of a piece of the Earth's crust that is being ripped apart by tectonic forces. Fluid from the interior gets heated up and rises through an opening that can cause swarms, Hudnut said.

Typical earthquakes start out with a main shock followed by smaller aftershocks. In a swarm, clusters of earthquakes — sometimes hundreds or thousands of them — hit close together in time and do not have an obvious main shock.

Earthquake swarms frequently begin without explanation, continue for days, weeks, months or even longer and taper off without any major event.

The last time the Salton Sea was rattled by a series of quakes was in 2001. The latest swarm initially hit within a mile of the southern San Andreas, but has since moved south away from the fault.

"That's probably a good thing, but we really don't understand it thoroughly enough to say for sure," said seismologist Kate Hutton of the California Institute of Technology. "If it was moving north toward the San Andreas, it might make us a little more nervous."
 

knickgnat

Veteran Member
Good information about the Salton Sea area. Even though the numbers are still up, looks quieter to me today and no bump house creaks today. Hope it stays this way.
 

gdpetti

Inactive
On the bright side, it will give the taxpayers of California something else to concern themselves with as it's hard to focus on economic woes when your life is in danger. It really does help us to pay attention to what's important.

How quiet does it get before the storm? Perhaps there's a pattern up, down and around this Ring of Fire? The swarms seem to represent the different plate issues of West vs East, as on the other side of the Pacific the plates aren't sliding apart, but against each other (up and over etc). So perhaps the cause is different, but the effect much the same? When the main event sequence occurs that is?
 

Tundra Gypsy

Veteran Member
On this day, 3/27/09 at 1:43 PST, the count is at 902! When I started this thread I noticed the activity was at 729. That is why I've been dating my threads so that folks can see how this activity has been increasing in such a short time.

I too, was wondering what the breaking point will be for a large earthquake and all heck breaking loose. Anyone checking the missing pets section of newspapers in the L.A. area? :shkr:
 

cleobc

Veteran Member
The 25th was a big day around Bombay Beach with a four-pointer and several three-pointers, but since then everything has been under three points. So it may be winding down.
 

knickgnat

Veteran Member
I've been following this stuff for 20 years - does anyone remember if the EQ count has ever been that high - my memory is getting more feeble by the minute - but I can't recall a number this high (though there must have been) - seems when it hit around the 600 mark, people started talking.

Even though it feels quieter, the whole state is sprouting shakers - more than one area is hard to handle.
 

Breeta

Veteran Member
I've been watching quakes for 10 years. The only time I remember the quake count being this high is after a large quake...

932 quakes now --- 480 on the 166-33 map... as of 4:38pm pacific time 03/27/09.
 

Siskiyoumom

Veteran Member
Micro quake in my neck of the mountains

While teaching my class today I was at the USGS site on line and I was showing them how to access it and post in the "how it felt" area and a micro quake occurred about 5 miles from our homestead near Somes Bar CA. What a trip to be in the middle of the lesson and the quake marker appeared on the screen! The kids all got a kick out of the experience because most have some family near there or have hunted and fished on the Klamath River near there. The quake's epicenter was 29 miles deep and in an area with no known fault lines. These certainly are interesting days we live in. Praying for mercy and safety for all the California and west coast folks in these shaky times. Sis
 

Tundra Gypsy

Veteran Member
I was just going to post that the earthquake activity count was going down and then the 4.3 south of San Francisco! Now the count is back up to 900.

Any bets on where the next one is going to happen?

I thought for sure the L.A. would get a 4-pointer first because of all the activity. I guess it is a wait and watch game over the next couple of days.
 

Siskiyoumom

Veteran Member
4.3 quake on Monday on New Fault in South Bay Area

Magnitude 4.3 earthquake strikes South Bay; new fault discovered
By Lisa M. Krieger

Mercury News

Posted: 03/30/2009 10:54:28 AM PDT


How prepared are you for a large earthquake?
A modest earthquake from an anonymous fault struck in the middle of nowhere on Monday morning.

The magnitude 4.3 earthquake hit at 10:40 a.m. in the rural east foothills of the Santa Clara Valley, about three miles south of Mount Hamilton and 16 miles due east of downtown San Jose, according to the U.S. Geological Survey in Menlo Park. The shudder alerted scientists to a fault that they didn't previously know existed.

No major damage was reported from the earthquake, but it triggered small vibrations, slight swaying and excited phone calls throughout the South Bay.

"I felt a big jolt, followed by a tiny one," said Lotus Baker, who lives and works at the University of California's Lick Observatory, atop
Mount Hamilton, where technicians had to re-center the mirrors on the telescopes.

"I knew we had gotten got," she laughed. "I looked up and saw a display case tipping from side to side, and a doll fell off the shelf. The cat ran under the bed."

The quake, whose epicenter was located in remote oak woodlands of the Diablo Range, has been attributed to an unnamed — and until Monday, unknown — fault that runs parallel, and due east, to the Calaveras Fault, which is part of the greater San Andreas Fault system. Numerous fault lines branch off the San Andreas, which is the master fault through the California coast.

"It looks like a very close cousin to the Calaveras," said USGS geophysicist Jack Boatwright.

The Calaveras and its related faults are engaged in steady, smooth and imperceptible creeping in response to shifting continental plates.

But small sections of earth sometimes get stuck. Small and moderate earthquakes, like what was felt Monday, occur whenever these sections suddenly give way.

"It could be part of the 'noise,' or it could be part of a signal of long term increased chance of an earthquake," Boatwright said.

Earthquake experts say there's an 11 percent chance that a destructive quake will strike within the next 25 years on the Calaveras Fault with a magnitude 6.7 or greater.

The new earthquake took place on a near-vertical fault called a "strike-slip" fault, where one side of crust shifts horizontally past the other side. Boatwright said that the east side of the fault moved southwest; the west side moved northwest.

The Calaveras Fault is routinely restless. Last November, it created a small earthquake north-northeast of the Alum Rock area of San Jose with a preliminary magnitude of 3.1. It was the site of a much larger magnitude 5.4 earthquake in the Alum Rock area in October 2007, breaking glass, turning over filing cabinets and hurling 300,000 books to the floor at San Jose State University's library. In 1984, the same fault was responsible for a hefty 6.2 earthquake, causing damage in the Santa Clara Valley totaling more than $10 million.

Only two tiny aftershocks were measured in the wake of Monday's quake.

And they may be the last we'll hear from it, said Boatwright. It's not worth a field trip.

"It will remain unknown,'' he said. "It was too small."

Contact Lisa Krieger at lkrieger@mercurynews.com or (408) 920-5565.
 
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