ALERT NASA says 1-in-3,200 chance that satellite part could hit someone....HUH?????

[allmycats]

My paper this morning has an article that says NASA : Satellite debris to fall in about one week. They say that their 6-ton satellite is predicted to fall next friday, give or take a day. They have calculated the satellite to break into 26 pieces with the heaviest piece being approx.350 lbs.They also go on to say that NASA scientists estimate a 1-in -3,200 chance that a satellite part could hit someone. They do say that all continents except Antartica face a chance of being hit by debris.
So this is where I go super HUH??? What the BLEEP??? So there is a greater chance at being hit by debris than winning the lottery? Aren't those some pretty bad chances? And surely they must have missed a couple of zeros in there or something? I find this pretty strange... something must be wrong here or what?? Anyways....
PEACE
ALLMYCATS

 

[willdo]

They are guessing using computer models. They are covering their butts so they can say you've been warned.

 

[dragonslayer2001]

as long as you are not worried that you will get hit by a piece.

 

[CharlieFox]

NASA scientists estimate a 1-in -3,200 chance that a satellite part could hit someone.

That chance is of ANYBODY being hit. The chance of any given person being hit is much, much smaller.

 

[msswv123]

Huge Defunct Satellite Falling to Earth Faster Than Expected, NASA Says

That window, NASA now says, has been trimmed to just three days.

"Re-entry is expected Sept. 23, plus or minus a day. The re-entry of UARS is advancing because of a sharp increase in solar activity since the beginning of this week,"

NASA officials wrote in a status update today (Sept. 16). The projection is a day earlier than a previous forecast released by NASA yesterday.

NASA spokeswoman Beth Dickey confirmed with SPACE.com earlier today that the reason UARS is expected to fall early in its re-entry window is because of the sharp uptick in solar activity. Solar effects from the sun can create an extra drag on satellites in space because they can heat the Earth's atmosphere, causing it to expand, agency officials have said. [Photos: Space Debris & Cleanup Concepts]

more
http://www.space.com/12982-dead-nasa-satellite-falling-earth-sept-24.html

 

[Red Baron]

Merged threads ....

 

[Guardian Angel]

With a baseball mit on, I'll be ready to catch it!

GA

 

[Caplock50]

Got a spare space shuttle parked in your backyard? If so, go up and 'collect' that thing. They use real gold and silver for wiring and such in them...that's one of the main reasons they weigh so much. Don't believe me? Do a net search...

A snippet...

The Uses of Gold
Gold's superior electrical conductivity, its malleability, and its resistance to corrosion have made it vital to the manufacture of components used in a wide range of electronic products and equipment, including computers, telephones, cellular phones, and home appliances.

Gold has extraordinarily high reflective powers that are relied upon in the shielding that protects spacecrafts and satellites from solar radiation and in industrial and medical lasers that use gold-coated reflectors to focus light energy. And because gold is biologically inactive, it has become a vital tool for medical research and is even used in the direct treatment of arthritis and other intractable diseases.

And the link...

http://www.nma.org/publications/gold/uses_gold.asp

 

[Caplock50]

Want to start mining for gold? Just start collecting old computers, keyboards, phones and such. Gold is used as wiring in all of them.

Heh, now there'll be a 'gold rush' to the nearest dump.

But...it *is* true.

 

[LoupGarou]

My paper this morning has an article that says NASA : Satellite debris to fall in about one week. They say that their 6-ton satellite is predicted to fall next friday, give or take a day. They have calculated the satellite to break into 26 pieces with the heaviest piece being approx.350 lbs.
...

I'm betting that there will be a lot more than just 26 pieces.

6 tons (12,000 pounds) divided by 26 pieces, gives us 461 pounds average, so we are looking at a LOT of stuff burning up in the atmosphere, and a lot of small pieces that they won't be tracking.

And at the speeds that we are talking about, it does not take a lot of mass to do some major damage. Just a few days ago someone had a camera lens nail their roof:

http://news.cnet.com/8301-17852_3-20107348-71/camera-lens-falls-from-sky-through-roof-of-house/

Camera lens falls from sky through roof of house
By: Chris Matyszczyk September 16, 2011 11:00 AM PDT

Surrealist movies offer the strangest happenings just to make us feel better about ourselves.

Streets become beaches. Nun's clothing appears on the sidewalk. And yet I don't remember a surrealist movie where a 9-inch Canon camera lens crashes through the roof of a house.

Perhaps the notion seemed too far-fetched. But not for one woman in Petaluma, Calif., who recently experienced precisely this occurrence.

It all started so innocently. Speaking to CBS 5 San Francisco, 55-year-old Debbie Payne told of a hearing a crash.

Might it have been an earthquake? Might it have been a storm-trooping blackbird with a machine gun, ready to rob her house of her TV and camera equipment?

No, it appears to have been dive-bombing camera equipment, desperate to enter her abode.

Please imagine the neighbors' surprise, as they, too, ran out to see what was assaulting their idyll.

They were bemused. For there was a hole in Payne's roof. Two window screens had been sliced, as if in preparation for a charcuterie plate. And the culprit was a 2-pound Canon lens.

The police seem fairly bemused too. They are trying to trace the serial number of the lens that zoomed through the roof to its owner. Thus, far, they have only traced thin air.

Currently, there appears to be no evidence that the lens even fell from a plane. Just as there is no evidence it came from the beak of a thieving stork.

Payne is grateful that no one was hurt, but now has to pick up the pieces with her insurance claim.

This weekend, if you happen to be out hang-gliding, or a passenger in your best friend's little pink Cessna, please be careful with your equipment. We have enough worries with space debris right now.

I'm willing to bet that the satellite debris is a LOT more dense than a mostly air filled camera lens...

And if I find any pieces, I'm not about to call anyone. Finders keepers, baby. They will be good additions to my parts boxes...

Loup

 

[Beach]

This has probably been posted before, but for those that may not have seen it you can track where the satellite is supposed to be for the next five days at this link:
http://www.n2yo.com/passes/?s=21701

I imagine it could be a bit inaccurate since it is falling, but it's there anyway. Loup, or anyone else, do you have any idea how accurate this may be?

 

[Abdon]

"NASA says 1-in-3,200 chance that satellite part could hit someone"

Doesn't that mean that 1 out of every 3200 people could get hit? Catchers mitt is right. Just joking of course, but those odds are pretty darn scary!

 

[LoupGarou]

This has probably been posted before, but for those that may not have seen it you can track where the satellite is supposed to be for the next five days at this link:
http://www.n2yo.com/passes/?s=21701

I imagine it could be a bit inaccurate since it is falling, but it's there anyway. Loup, do you have any idea how accurate this may be?

NORAD updates the TLEs for all satellites on a daily basis for those that have a subscription, and even more often for the ones that are coming down so that the FAA and other groups can schedule things around those "reentries". Nothing sucks more than to have the flight you are on, "canceled" in mid-air by a hunk of space debris obliterating your plane into shards...

The TLE looks like it has changed since last night:
Two Line Element Set (TLE):
1 21701U 91063B 11260.22298500 .00815548 41550-3 60166-3 0 5883
2 21701 056.9480 295.7103 0018869 010.9843 349.1610 16.14676423108068

Of course, all it would take is one good upset in the upper atmosphere, and all bets of when and where it could reenter are off. It could do one skip across the atmosphere, start tumbling, and then go in for a sharper reentry, or it could just go in for a nice big arc.

IF, and this is a big IF, the satellite was to stay in one piece, AND IF it is on the same course as it is now (IE, the Ephemeral data (TLE) does not change), we are looking at the following dates before we see it down:

Time
--------------------
2011-09-17 22:19:09
2011-09-18 06:05:32
2011-09-18 22:03:34
2011-09-19 05:49:24
2011-09-19 21:46:05
2011-09-20 05:31:15
2011-09-20 21:26:22
2011-09-21 05:10:44
2011-09-21 21:04:00
2011-09-22 04:47:24
2011-09-22 20:38:29
2011-09-23 04:20:42
2011-09-23 20:09:10
2011-09-26 19:40:04
2011-09-27 03:14:44
2011-09-27 18:46:09
2011-11-01 14:29:52
2011-11-01 14:29:55
2011-11-01 15:15:08
2011-11-01 15:22:10
2011-11-01 15:54:17
2011-11-01 16:01:21
2011-11-01 16:02:23
2011-11-01 16:12:26
2011-11-01 16:40:40
2011-11-01 16:41:42
2011-11-01 16:45:45
2011-11-01 17:06:57
2011-11-01 17:09:02
2011-11-01 17:10:05
2011-11-01 17:24:11
2011-11-01 17:42:22
2011-11-01 17:43:26
2011-11-01 17:46:29
2011-11-01 17:59:31
2011-11-01 18:03:34
2011-11-01 18:05:38
2011-11-01 18:10:42
2011-11-01 18:14:44
2011-11-01 18:14:46
2011-11-01 18:44:59
2011-11-01 19:02:08
2011-11-01 19:02:11
2011-11-01 19:02:14
2011-11-01 19:02:16
2011-11-01 19:20:24
2011-11-01 19:21:27
2011-11-01 19:25:31
2011-11-01 19:25:33
2011-11-01 19:29:42
2011-11-01 19:31:44
2011-11-01 19:35:47
2011-11-01 19:40:50
2011-11-01 19:47:53
2011-11-01 19:48:56
2011-11-01 20:00:02
2011-11-01 20:01:06
2011-11-01 20:01:08
2011-11-01 20:06:11
2011-11-01 20:10:15
2011-11-01 20:13:19
2011-11-01 20:16:21
2011-11-01 20:18:24
2011-11-01 20:18:28
2011-11-01 20:19:35
2011-11-01 20:23:38
2011-11-01 20:24:43
2011-11-01 20:28:46
2011-11-01 20:38:54
2011-11-01 20:56:02
2011-11-01 21:00:05
2011-11-01 21:02:09
2011-11-01 21:03:13
2011-11-01 21:08:19
2011-11-01 21:10:22
2011-11-01 21:20:28
2011-11-01 21:27:32
2011-11-01 21:44:37
2011-11-01 21:47:40
2011-11-01 21:48:42
2011-11-01 21:53:47
2011-11-01 22:21:57
2011-11-01 22:21:59
2011-11-01 22:23:01
2011-11-01 22:27:03
2011-11-01 22:34:09
2011-11-01 22:43:14
2011-11-01 22:50:21
2011-11-01 22:56:24
2011-11-01 22:59:31
2011-11-01 23:12:43
2011-11-01 23:16:46
2011-11-01 23:17:48
2011-11-01 23:21:53
2011-11-01 23:26:56
2011-11-01 23:26:58
2011-11-01 23:30:01
2011-11-01 23:31:03
2011-11-01 23:33:06
2011-11-01 23:34:09
2011-11-01 23:35:11
2011-11-01 23:35:13

September 27th looks like the last day that it will be "orbiting", at least in the normal sense. The Ephemeral data locks at that point.

I'm looking now to see "where" is will be over as that lock happens.

Loup

 

[Kent]

The police seem fairly bemused too. They are trying to trace the serial number of the lens that zoomed through the roof to its owner. Thus, far, they have only traced thin air.

Currently, there appears to be no evidence that the lens even fell from a plane. Just as there is no evidence it came from the beak of a thieving stork.

Payne is grateful that no one was hurt, but now has to pick up the pieces with her insurance claim.

This weekend, if you happen to be out hang-gliding, or a passenger in your best friend's little pink Cessna, please be careful with your equipment. We have enough worries with space debris right now.

It shouldn't be hard to figure out that there are very few cameras with TWO pound lens. Even fewer that fall from the sky.

 

[Hansa44]

I wondered if this was what the Hopi's were talking about in their prophecy. #9

But I don't think so. Not yet. It said a "dwelling in the sky" and no one lived on this satellite that's coming down in Sept. (did they?)

"The Fourth World shall end soon, and the Fifth World will begin. This the elders everywhere know. The Signs over many years have been fulfilled, and so few are left.

"This is the First Sign: We are told of the coming of the white-skinned men, like Pahana, but not living like Pahana men who took the land that was not theirs. And men who struck their enemies with thunder.

"This is the Second Sign: Our lands will see the coming of spinning wheels filled with voices. In his youth, my father saw this prophecy come true with his eyes -- the white men bringing their families in wagons across the prairies."

"This is the Third Sign: A strange beast like a buffalo but with great long horns, will overrun the land in large numbers. These White Feather saw with his eyes -- the coming of the white men's cattle."

"This is the Fourth Sign: The land will be crossed by snakes of iron."

"This is the Fifth Sign: The land shall be criss-crossed by a giant spider's web."

"This is the Sixth sign: The land shall be criss-crossed with rivers of stone that make pictures in the sun."

"This is the Seventh Sign: You will hear of the sea turning black, and many living things dying because of it."

"This is the Eight Sign: You will see many youth, who wear their hair long like my people, come and join the tribal nations, to learn their ways and wisdom.

"And this is the Ninth and Last Sign: You will hear of a dwelling-place in the heavens, above the earth, that shall fall with a great crash. It will appear as a blue star. Very soon after this, the ceremonies of my people will cease.

"These are the Signs that great destruction is coming. The world shall rock to and fro. The white man will battle against other people in other lands -- with those who possessed the first light of wisdom. There will be many columns of smoke and fire such as White Feather has seen the white man make in the deserts not far from here. Only those which come will cause disease and a great dying. Many of my people, understanding the prophecies, shall be safe. Those who stay and live in the places of my people also shall be safe. Then there will be much to rebuild. And soon -- very soon afterward -- Pahana will return. He shall bring with him the dawn of the Fifth World. He shall plant the seeds of his wisdom in their hearts. Even now the seeds are being planted. These shall smooth the way to the Emergence into the Fifth World.

 

[milkydoo]

Does this satellite have any nuclear material on board? Remember about a year ago or so, Hoagland and Kaku (sp?) were talking about the possibility of a satellite launch that could spread plutonium or something, if the rocket blew up.

 

[kemosabe]

That window, NASA now says, has been trimmed to just three days.

"Re-entry is expected Sept. 23, plus or minus a day. The re-entry of UARS is advancing because of a sharp increase in solar activity since the beginning of this week,"

NASA officials wrote in a status update today (Sept. 16). The projection is a day earlier than a previous forecast released by NASA yesterday.

NASA spokeswoman Beth Dickey confirmed with SPACE.com earlier today that the reason UARS is expected to fall early in its re-entry window is because of the sharp uptick in solar activity. Solar effects from the sun can create an extra drag on satellites in space because they can heat the Earth's atmosphere, causing it to expand, agency officials have said. [Photos: Space Debris & Cleanup Concepts]

more
http://www.space.com/12982-dead-nasa-satellite-falling-earth-sept-24.html

Today this morning at around 6am , my cable tv and internet totally went out... No cable signal to box nor to the modem...

Also , I know a good portion of town had a power outtage of some sorts.. It was weird, because the weather was just fine ....

I wonder if this "solar activity" is putting a strain on the grid and/or affecting satellites ...

When my mother had got off work and came home at 7:30 , she said on her way home that there was a pretty large area that there were alot of businesses and areas on her route home that had absolutely no power/lights.




.

 

[kemosabe]

Does this satellite have any nuclear material on board? Remember about a year ago or so, Hoagland and Kaku (sp?) were talking about the possibility of a satellite launch that could spread plutonium or something, if the rocket blew up.

That wouldn't be good.. AT ALL!


Ya know, I wouldn't doubt it ... I have heard stories ... It wouldn't surprise me one bit if there wasn't a "payload" aboard one or more satellites....

 

[econjon33]

Does this satellite have any nuclear material on board? Remember about a year ago or so, Hoagland and Kaku (sp?) were talking about the possibility of a satellite launch that could spread plutonium or something, if the rocket blew up.

I believe that was the Cassini mission, was a few years ago, and that it is far, far away from Earth by now...but I could be way wrong on that as well.

 

[Richard]

There should be a self destruct mechanism in these large satellites, so that they explode before reentry at the end of their lives, a small charge would be sufficient I guess.

 

[allmycats]

So with all of our high tech, sensory guided missles why can't/don't they just blow it up to smitherenes so that any resulting pieces would burn upon reentry? I have a strange feeling this week will be an interesting one....with Obama, heads of NASA, many elites and all to be in Denver, Congress on vacation again..Elenin allignment, makes me go hmmmmm?

 

[Beach]

NORAD updates the TLEs for all satellites on a daily basis for those that have a subscription, and even more often for the ones that are coming down so that the FAA and other groups can schedule things around those "reentries". Nothing sucks more than to have the flight you are on, "canceled" in mid-air by a hunk of space debris obliterating your plane into shards...

The TLE looks like it has changed since last night:
Two Line Element Set (TLE):
1 21701U 91063B 11260.22298500 .00815548 41550-3 60166-3 0 5883
2 21701 056.9480 295.7103 0018869 010.9843 349.1610 16.14676423108068

Of course, all it would take is one good upset in the upper atmosphere, and all bets of when and where it could reenter are off. It could do one skip across the atmosphere, start tumbling, and then go in for a sharper reentry, or it could just go in for a nice big arc.

IF, and this is a big IF, the satellite was to stay in one piece, AND IF it is on the same course as it is now (IE, the Ephemeral data (TLE) does not change), we are looking at the following dates before we see it down:

Time
--------------------
2011-09-17 22:19:09
2011-09-18 06:05:32
2011-09-18 22:03:34
2011-09-19 05:49:24
2011-09-19 21:46:05
2011-09-20 05:31:15
2011-09-20 21:26:22
2011-09-21 05:10:44
2011-09-21 21:04:00
2011-09-22 04:47:24
2011-09-22 20:38:29
2011-09-23 04:20:42
2011-09-23 20:09:10
2011-09-26 19:40:04
2011-09-27 03:14:44
2011-09-27 18:46:09
2011-11-01 14:29:52
2011-11-01 14:29:55
2011-11-01 15:15:08
2011-11-01 15:22:10
2011-11-01 15:54:17
2011-11-01 16:01:21
2011-11-01 16:02:23
2011-11-01 16:12:26
2011-11-01 16:40:40
2011-11-01 16:41:42
2011-11-01 16:45:45
2011-11-01 17:06:57
2011-11-01 17:09:02
2011-11-01 17:10:05
2011-11-01 17:24:11
2011-11-01 17:42:22
2011-11-01 17:43:26
2011-11-01 17:46:29
2011-11-01 17:59:31
2011-11-01 18:03:34
2011-11-01 18:05:38
2011-11-01 18:10:42
2011-11-01 18:14:44
2011-11-01 18:14:46
2011-11-01 18:44:59
2011-11-01 19:02:08
2011-11-01 19:02:11
2011-11-01 19:02:14
2011-11-01 19:02:16
2011-11-01 19:20:24
2011-11-01 19:21:27
2011-11-01 19:25:31
2011-11-01 19:25:33
2011-11-01 19:29:42
2011-11-01 19:31:44
2011-11-01 19:35:47
2011-11-01 19:40:50
2011-11-01 19:47:53
2011-11-01 19:48:56
2011-11-01 20:00:02
2011-11-01 20:01:06
2011-11-01 20:01:08
2011-11-01 20:06:11
2011-11-01 20:10:15
2011-11-01 20:13:19
2011-11-01 20:16:21
2011-11-01 20:18:24
2011-11-01 20:18:28
2011-11-01 20:19:35
2011-11-01 20:23:38
2011-11-01 20:24:43
2011-11-01 20:28:46
2011-11-01 20:38:54
2011-11-01 20:56:02
2011-11-01 21:00:05
2011-11-01 21:02:09
2011-11-01 21:03:13
2011-11-01 21:08:19
2011-11-01 21:10:22
2011-11-01 21:20:28
2011-11-01 21:27:32
2011-11-01 21:44:37
2011-11-01 21:47:40
2011-11-01 21:48:42
2011-11-01 21:53:47
2011-11-01 22:21:57
2011-11-01 22:21:59
2011-11-01 22:23:01
2011-11-01 22:27:03
2011-11-01 22:34:09
2011-11-01 22:43:14
2011-11-01 22:50:21
2011-11-01 22:56:24
2011-11-01 22:59:31
2011-11-01 23:12:43
2011-11-01 23:16:46
2011-11-01 23:17:48
2011-11-01 23:21:53
2011-11-01 23:26:56
2011-11-01 23:26:58
2011-11-01 23:30:01
2011-11-01 23:31:03
2011-11-01 23:33:06
2011-11-01 23:34:09
2011-11-01 23:35:11
2011-11-01 23:35:13

September 27th looks like the last day that it will be "orbiting", at least in the normal sense. The Ephemeral data locks at that point.

I'm looking now to see "where" is will be over as that lock happens.

Loup

bump

 

[PilotFighter]

If it lands in my backyard, tthen you'll be bidding for it on Ebay. Bidding will begin at $5,000. Well daddy has needs. A couple of nice new fly rod and reels I've been wanting.

 

[Aardaerimus]

Considering most "shooting stars" are smaller than a peanut, anything over a pound should make a hell of a fireball... 300lbs?? WOWZAH!

 

[dragonslayer2001]

So with all of our high tech, sensory guided missles why can't/don't they just blow it up to smitherenes so that any resulting pieces would burn upon reentry? I have a strange feeling this week will be an interesting one....with Obama, heads of NASA, many elites and all to be in Denver, Congress on vacation again..Elenin allignment, makes me go hmmmmm?


If I recall correctly we did shoot down a failing satellite once.

 

[Aardaerimus]

Question: If our spacecraft debris lands in a foreign nation and kills one or more people, will it be considered and act of war?

 

[LoupGarou]

Question: If our spacecraft debris lands in a foreign nation and kills one or more people, will it be considered and act of war?

Depends on who it hits.

Most of the countries now would just file a lawsuit for the money.

Some on the other hand, would thank us if it hit the right person...

Loup

 

[Raffy]

"NASA says 1-in-3,200 chance that satellite part could hit someone"

Doesn't that mean that 1 out of every 3200 people could get hit? Catchers mitt is right. Just joking of course, but those odds are pretty darn scary!

No, it does not mean that an individual has a 1 in 3200 chance of getting hit. It means that there is a 1 in 3200 chance of one of the entire world's population being hit by debris from this satellite. There are about 6.5 billion people in the world, so the chance of any one of them being hit would be 1 in 3200 times 6.5 billion. That would be a 1 in 20.8 trillion chance of any one person in the world being hit, according to NASA's reckoning. I'd say you have a far greater chance of being hit by a car (either as a pedestrian or while operating a motor vehicle yourself) during the period of a day than being hit by a piece of this satellite.

 

[Aardaerimus]

Depends on who it hits.

Most of the countries now would just file a lawsuit for the money.

Some on the other hand, would thank us if it hit the right person...

Loup

Hahah! Good point! I know I have my little fantasies...

 

[milkydoo]

No, it does not mean that an individual has a 1 in 3200 chance of getting hit. It means that there is a 1 in 3200 chance of one of the entire world's population being hit by debris from this satellite. There are about 6.5 billion people in the world, so the chance of any one of them being hit would be 1 in 3200 times 6.5 billion. That would be a 1 in 20.8 trillion chance of any one person in the world being hit, according to NASA's reckoning. I'd say you have a far greater chance of being hit by a car (either as a pedestrian or while operating a motor vehicle yourself) during the period of a day than being hit by a piece of this satellite.

I've really got to question how they can calculate odds at this early stage. I mean, surely it's going to depend on...

* how many pieces there are
* the mass and aerodynamics of each piece,
* the altitude each piece breaks up at,
* the thermo characteristics of each piece as it falls (flies),
* whether pieces break off loosely, or are exploded off, thereby altering trajectories for both objects,
* weather patterns and,
* last but not least, whether the stuff comes in over the ocean, or over land.

If it's over the ocean, it's probably a shot in a trillion that a piece would hit a ship, but over populated land, the odds are far more likely.

I'm not a scientist, but calculating odds at this stage, just sounds like crappy PR to me.

 

[Raffy]

I've really got to question how they can calculate odds at this early stage. I mean, surely it's going to depend on...

* how many pieces there are
* the mass and aerodynamics of each piece,
* the altitude each piece breaks up,
* the thermo characteristics of each piece as it falls (flies),
* whether pieces break off loosely, or are exploded off, thereby altering trajectories for both objects,
* weather patterns and,
* last but not least, whether the stuff comes in over the ocean, or over land.

If it's over the ocean, it's probably a shot in a trillion that a piece would hit a ship, but over populated land, the odds are far more likely.

I'm not scientist, but calculating odds at this stage, just sounds like crappy PR to me.

Yes, it is a rather black art, sometimes referred to as "probablilistic risk assessment." They do have a pretty good idea of what its reentry velocity is likely to be, but after it breaks up it's pretty much anybody's guess as to what the ballistic coefficient of each broken piece will be. This is especially so when the fragments break up into smaller fragments on the way down. Keep in mind that the 1 in 20 trillion or so calculated probability is for hitting a person, not an object on land (which is indeed far more likely). And it includes the probability of landing in the ocean as well as land.

I'd love to see this thing when it reenters the atmosphere. I think it will put on a spectacular show when it does, provided we are in a position to see it. Hopefully someone will post a video here on TB2K!

 

[allmycats]

WHEW!! I can deal with the 1 in 20 Trililon odds much better... Thanks for making that make sence now. It just did not seem right with the 1 in 3,200 odds.. I did not see how that could be possible?

 

[DaisyBarrel]

Please someone, correct me if I'm wrong. If the largest piece is guestimated at being @ 350 lbs., won't a good portion of us be in BIG trouble depending on where it lands. Won't that kind of impact from space debris actually cause just incomprehensible damage to earth, people, land, oceans, whatever! I guess I am not bothered by the fact that this thing could potentially land on one person's head, but won't horrific devastation be inevitable. I have no fear, nor am I trying to be a fear-mongerer...I guess I am hoping that I'm missing a small detail as to why this won't be as big an event it seems like it could be. Thank you in advance for helping me understand.

DB

 

[LoupGarou]

Please someone, correct me if I'm wrong. If the largest piece is guestimated at being @ 350 lbs., won't a good portion of us be in BIG trouble depending on where it lands. Won't that kind of impact from space debris actually cause just incomprehensible damage to earth, people, land, oceans, whatever! I guess I am not bothered by the fact that this thing could potentially land on one person's head, but won't horrific devastation be inevitable. I have no fear, nor am I trying to be a fear-mongerer...I guess I am hoping that I'm missing a small detail as to why this won't be as big an event it seems like it could be. Thank you in advance for helping me understand.

DB

The speed is not going to be as high as a meteorite or bolide, so you are not looking at that kind of devastation (like Tunguska), but rather damage to whatever it hits. Now a 350 pound piece, that is probably going to be coming in at a rather shallow angle, will probably skip and bounce a bit, so there may be more than one target.

I would be more worried about the thousands of smaller 10-20 pound range pieces.

Loup

 

[DaisyBarrel]

Ahhh..yes..the speed of the debris versus the speed of an incoming meteorite...that's what I was not taking into consideration. Thanks Loup!

DB

 

[Beetree]

No, it does not mean that an individual has a 1 in 3200 chance of getting hit. It means that there is a 1 in 3200 chance of one of the entire world's population being hit by debris from this satellite. There are about 6.5 billion people in the world, so the chance of any one of them being hit would be 1 in 3200 times 6.5 billion. That would be a 1 in 20.8 trillion chance of any one person in the world being hit, according to NASA's reckoning. I'd say you have a far greater chance of being hit by a car (either as a pedestrian or while operating a motor vehicle yourself) during the period of a day than being hit by a piece of this satellite.

If they know what area it will impact, and the debris will spread over 500 sq.miles, and they know how much debris; can they find out the population in that area and give a true figure? After all there will not be the whole world's population in that area.

 

[teefleur]

Holy carp! I don't like the looks of that! Checking the location in the link Beach posted, this thing is going to pass over my house on the 26th!

I'm looking at my little pile of tin foil and thinking I gonna need a bigger hat!

 

[Caplock50]

TeeFleur, iron bumbershoots are more like it.

 

[LoupGarou]

Holy carp! I don't like the looks of that! Checking the location in the link Beach posted, this thing is going to pass over my house on the 26th!

I'm looking at my little pile of tin foil and thinking I gonna need a bigger hat!

It actually passes over all of the houses in it's path at least twice every day. This is why the debris field is so questionable.

The best way to keep a watch on it, is to download a satellite tracking program (like Orbitron: http://www.stoff.pl/ ), and keep the TLE files updated. So far, the 27th still looks like the start of the "final" reentry.

Loup

 

[willdo]

I did not realize it would pass directly over my house on 2 passes and within that 500 mile range 4 times! Guess I better pay attention to where it is.