ALERT NATO code compromise from Polish plane crash

This is very serious IMHO and suggests Russia may be planning military action against NATO in some way in the near-future. I'm increasingly concerned that my EMERGENCY ACTION NOTIFICATION is warranted. I don't think Russia would have gone through the trouble of taking down Poland's 'Air Force One' and assassinating the bulk of the Polish political and military high command unless there was a very significant underlying strategic objective, i.e., World War Three...

From - http://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2010/may/13/inside-the-ring-86422687/

INSIDE THE RING

By Bill Gertz

NATO code compromise

The recent crash of a Polish military transport that killed most of Warsaw's senior civilian and military leaders was not only a human catastrophe for a key U.S. ally. NATO sources said that, in addition to the loss of nearly 100 pro-U.S. Polish leaders, the crash provided Moscow with a windfall of secrets.

The crash killed Polish President Lech Kaczynski in western Russia on April 10 and decapitated Poland's military, killing two service chiefs, key military aides and several national security officials, many of whom were carrying computers and pocket memory sticks that contained sensitive NATO data.

Perhaps the most significant compromise, according to a NATO intelligence source, is that the Russians are suspected of obtaining ultrasecret codes used by NATO militaries for secure satellite communications.

The compromise of the codes is considered what electronic spies call a "break" for Moscow code-breakers. New NATO codes almost certainly were issued to allied militaries immediately after the crash.

But if the Russian electronic intelligence service, known as the Federal Agency of Government Communications and Information, was able to recover and use the communication key code from the wreckage, electronic spies will be able to decode months' or perhaps years' worth of scrambled communications that are routinely gathered electronically for just such an occasion.

The coded communications, if decrypted, would reveal some of NATO's most intimate secrets, such as plans for defenses and even the identities of agents or allied eavesdropping sources.

Other Polish and NATO secrets also were believed to be aboard the jet, and so far Russia's government is refusing to cooperate fully with Poland's government in providing details on the cause of the crash, or even to turn over the Polish jet's black boxes.

Additionally, Poland's interim government has not pressed the Russians for answers to questions about the crash, such as why Russian aviation authorities, without any investigation, ruled that pilot error caused the crash minutes after the jet crashed short of the runway in fog at Russia's Smolensk airport. Polish security and aviation authorities also were denied access to the crash site.

Public pressure is mounting on Warsaw to call for an international commission to investigate the crash. Tens of thousands of Poles already have signed a petition calling for the international probe.

Many Poles, who need little encouragement to be critical of the Russians based on past enmity, have taken to calling the crash the "second Katyn," after the 1940 Katyn Forest massacre when Russian agents killed more than 21,000 Polish officers in an effort to decimate the Polish military.

Mr. Kaczynski, who was viewed as politically more anti-Russian than current leaders, was on his way to Katyn, about six miles from Smolensk, to mark the anniversary of the massacre.

(FOR FAIR USE)
 

TheSearcher

Are you sure about that?
If the Russians have the black boxes, it is property of the Polish state and should be returned. In all seriousness, truly grave seriousness, Russia witholding evidence in the untimely death of the Polish head of state (on Russian soil!) would be an act of war.

Folks, this is not an insignificant situation. (Yes, this would be known as an understatement.)
 

Cmdr Don

NASCAR junkie
>>> Looks like Gertz does not know much about cryptography. But yes, this is significant.

I would agree with the first part but not necessarily the second part. The crypto keys are changed every 24 hrs without fail. At best they have the ability to easily decipher any intercepts they may have within the last 24 hours (or less).
 

TheSearcher

Are you sure about that?
>>> Looks like Gertz does not know much about cryptography. But yes, this is significant.

I would agree with the first part but not necessarily the second part. The crypto keys are changed every 24 hrs without fail. At best they have the ability to easily decipher any intercepts they may have within the last 24 hours (or less).

If Russia had this as goal, then they may have had time to look around before the codes cycled.
 

Cmdr Don

NASCAR junkie
I don't mean to sound like I'm poo-pooing the whole thing...it's always serious any time there's a compromise like this.

More important is - what else is on those laptops and does it divulge (directly or indirectly) sources and/or methods of intel gathering. THAT is the real issue. The information itself is usually very perishable...it's only useful for a short period of time. But the sources and/or methods can be extremely sensitive.
 

TheSearcher

Are you sure about that?
I don't mean to sound like I'm poo-pooing the whole thing...it's always serious any time there's a compromise like this.

More important is - what else is on those laptops and does it divulge (directly or indirectly) sources and/or methods of intel gathering. THAT is the real issue. The information itself is usually very perishable...it's only useful for a short period of time. But the sources and/or methods can be extremely sensitive.

I did not get the impression that you were pooh-pooh-ing. Seemed an honest line of discussion to me. Given the perishable nature of such data, I think it makes it look more of a planned operation, IMHO.

I expect that you're quite right on your other comments about sources and methods.
 

Archetype

Veteran Member
I *think* what Gertz was concerned about is the ability of the Russians to now go back and decipher *past* COMINT that has been stored - it wouldn't be fresh, but it would tell a *lot* about what we know and how we operate...
 

Oreally

Right from the start
I like the way PM Putin announced he was personally in charge of the crash "investigation" the very next day.

I'm sure that made the Poles feel a whole lot better.
 

Cmdr Don

NASCAR junkie
In the words of Rumsfeld, we're dealing with too many "unknown knowns" here LOL.

>>> But if the Russian electronic intelligence service, known as the Federal Agency of Government Communications and Information, was able to recover and use the communication key code from the wreckage, electronic spies will be able to decode months' or perhaps years' worth of scrambled communications that are routinely gathered electronically for just such an occasion.

We don't know what computers, memory cards, etc. they were able to recover.

IF they recovered any, we don't know if they were able to gleen anything from them - as the data on them was probably corrupted at best, and probably completely toasted in the wreck.

Finally, I've been out of the game for years, but when I was a cryptologist, we changed keys daily. Any keys that may have been compromised would only give the enemy 24 hours worth of data at the most, and probably much less than that.

We didn't have laptops, memory cards, or even PC's for that matter, but I can't imagine these guys being able to carry a weeks worth of keys on their computers. I just can't believe they would allow that. So I'm still convinced that at the most, they may have been able to scrounge up 24 hours or less worth of intel. Damaging yes, but not devestating.

Then again, I wouldn't think it would be possible to elect a known socialist and probable non-citizen as the president of the United States - so I could be wrong.
 

SIRR1

Deceased
Kind of makes ya go hmmmm when Putin got all pissy with Obama about the May Day parade in Red Square.

Obama said no and sent old joe instead and Putin pulled the invite.

Just think all of the world leaders in one spot and Obama ruined Putins plan by not showing up...

SIRR1
 
I like the way PM Putin announced he was personally in charge of the crash "investigation" the very next day.

I'm sure that made the Poles feel a whole lot better.

Medvedev appointed Putin to head the investigation approximately 2 hours after news of the crash was reported.
 
In the words of Rumsfeld, we're dealing with too many "unknown knowns" here LOL.

>>> But if the Russian electronic intelligence service, known as the Federal Agency of Government Communications and Information, was able to recover and use the communication key code from the wreckage, electronic spies will be able to decode months' or perhaps years' worth of scrambled communications that are routinely gathered electronically for just such an occasion.

We don't know what computers, memory cards, etc. they were able to recover.

IF they recovered any, we don't know if they were able to gleen anything from them - as the data on them was probably corrupted at best, and probably completely toasted in the wreck.

Finally, I've been out of the game for years, but when I was a cryptologist, we changed keys daily. Any keys that may have been compromised would only give the enemy 24 hours worth of data at the most, and probably much less than that.

We didn't have laptops, memory cards, or even PC's for that matter, but I can't imagine these guys being able to carry a weeks worth of keys on their computers. I just can't believe they would allow that. So I'm still convinced that at the most, they may have been able to scrounge up 24 hours or less worth of intel. Damaging yes, but not devestating.

Then again, I wouldn't think it would be possible to elect a known socialist and probable non-citizen as the president of the United States - so I could be wrong.


Here's the more relevant issue. Would the compromise of codes lead NATO to shutting down intelligence gather efforts within Russia for a time? Would potentially vulnerable humint be pulled?
 
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