The actual celebrations of parades etc. were cancelled. But the actual period of shut down for factories, businesses, and most transport has NOT been cancelled. But I also do NOT expect this to be over for China to go back to work even on the delayed date of February 9th.The gov't there canceled all Chinese New Year celebrations.
The timeline of a week to 10 days to start seeing supply chain issues will be absolutely correct! Here is my thinking why:
Currently China is celebrating Chinese New Year and most everything is closed, including shipping and most other transport. This happens EVERY year and the JIT global market reflects this fact and prepares for this by ordering extra stock for duration of the holiday. That is also why most companies close their year end inventory on the last day of January. Historically this will be the companies lowest amount of inventory on hand and offers reduced tax liability as well so..
This means that when China comes back (or is supposed to come back) from holiday, there is going to be NO influx of new inventories to replenish the dwindling supply on hand...
Also there is always a shipping slow down when every factory in China clogs the transport carriers when they return from holiday. In addition to whatever didn't make it out of port before the holiday shutdown. This slow down typically makes a 10-15 day ship a 25-30 ship throughout the remainder of February and March.
The timing of the outbreak has been fortuitous IMO because the entire world had more supplies than normal on hand. That is about to change drastically though. IMO
The black out period on shipments arriving is about 4 weeks - basically the month of March.The actual celebrations of parades etc. were cancelled. But the actual period of shut down for factories, businesses, and most transport has NOT been cancelled. But I also do NOT expect this to be over for China to go back to work even on the delayed date of February 9th.
Basically anything in terms of resupply in the worldwide JIT system from China, just got pushed back another week already as the Chinese president just extended the current holiday. I suspect we are going to have major shortages and slow start back and an increased transport delay.
Blizzard (our resident MD here) calls BS on this. Jus sayin.
even if the medicine is not made there - good chance some of the components are. same with electronicsOk folks, we should make a list of those products which originate in China which are currently available but may not be in a few months. It is my understanding that a lot of our drugs are made there. What else should we be stocking up on?
Yep, my first thought is somebody is drinking too much, but the Chinese are reacting weird for sure.Very hard to believe... *except*... the actions taken by the Chinese government would make sense if it's true...
Summerthyme
FYI: This is what I am hearing from friends still in global supply chains. The global crisis declaration has changed things, apparently. So I won't swear to this and would LOVE to be wrong but...March‘s store inventory is already on the water headed this way.
I have not heard that but will inquire about tomorrow - i can see this happening. Only thought is that the crew is going to be isolated together for 3-4 weeks by the time they arrive so that might serve as the quarantine time for them... I don’t think the crew comes into too much contact with doc workers (except paperwork handoff but I am not familiar with that part of the process. I’ll post what I find outFYI: This is what I am hearing from friends still in global supply chains. The global crisis declaration has changed things, apparently. So I won't swear to this and would LOVE to be wrong but...
It is my understanding that the every vessel still on the water, will stay on the water. Any illnesses will be managed on board. And vessels already in port, will be held in port under shipboard quarantine.
I have not heard that but will inquire about tomorrow - i can see this happening. Only thought is that the crew is going to be isolated together for 3-4 weeks by the time they arrive so that might serve as the quarantine time for them... I don’t think the crew comes into too much contact with doc workers (except paperwork handoff but I am not familiar with that part of the process. I’ll post what I find out
that would change it all for sure. I remember last time there was a port strike - it took forever to catchback up
Not buyin' it.Well, IF TRUE, this is one hell of a game changer, to put it mildly.
(I need to post these screenshots in 4 sequential parts because I don’t know how to do it any other way.)
View attachment 181054
It’s been a while since I was in the medical field but I agree that this sounds like pure BS.Blizzard (our resident MD here) calls BS on this. Jus sayin.
There was no "info posted".The info posted was through David du Byne of Adapt 2030, whom I’ve been following for years.
While no medical genius, I tend to agree.Blizzard (our resident MD here) calls BS on this. Jus sayin.
Not a person I would ever lend any credence to...Hal Turner is a reputable source?
There was no "info posted".
The OP just gives a link without the content.
The OP doesn’t give a link?
Snyper said:
The content is supposed to be in the OP so one doesn't have to use the link to see it.There was no "info posted".
The OP just gives a link without the content.
They are.Get your facts straight please.
ALL original posts that start a thread MUST have the entire story, start to finish, unless its impractical due to extreme length or for other technical reasons. (If so, the member needs to insert a notice at the end, something to the effect of: "Was unable to post story content because..." However, that has to be legit, rather than a person's blanket excuse for never posting content.) The story must also include the attribution and link to the original story. OPs that do not contain this content will be deleted and the thread starter will receive an infraction.