WEATHER Patricia now a powerful Category Four hurricane off Mexico (Update now Cat 5)

H

Housecarl

On TB every waking moment
For links see article source.....
Posted for fair use.....
http://www.digitaljournal.com/news/...gory-four-hurricane-off-mexico/article/447312

Patricia now a powerful Category Four hurricane off Mexico

By AFP
1 hour ago in Environment

Patricia grew into an "extremely dangerous" Category Four hurricane Thursday as it swirled toward Mexico's Pacific coast, authorities said.

The storm, with the second highest strength in the five-level Saffir-Simpson scale, packed winds of 215 kilometers (130 miles) per hour some 385 kilometers southwest of the port of Lazaro Cardenas, according to the US National Hurricane Center.

060852W_sm.gif

http://www.nhcpara.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/EP20/refresh/EP2015W+gif/060852W_sm.gif
 
Last edited:
bev

bev

Has No Life - Lives on TB
Uh oh. My sister and niece are going to be in Cabo This weekend. Niece will be competing in an Iron Man, I think on Monday. Hope the hurricane is not going to be anywhere near Cabo.
 
H

Housecarl

On TB every waking moment
packyderms_wife said:
wonder if it'll die out or continue on right across Mexico and regain strength in the GOM?
Click to expand...

For that matter with the uptick in strength how much more rain is it going to inject into Texas, Oklahoma and the rest of the region after it runs through Mexico. They're already on alert for flooding from this storm.
 
H

Housecarl

On TB every waking moment
For links see article source.....
Posted for fair use.....
http://www.nbcnews.com/news/weather...gthens-dangerous-category-4-hurricane-n449451

Hurricane Patricia Strengthens Into Dangerous Category 4 Storm

by Reuters

MEXICO CITY — Hurricane Patricia strengthened into an "extremely dangerous" Category 4 storm on Thursday as it churned toward Mexico's Pacific coast, the U.S. National Hurricane Center said.

The storm, which became a hurricane overnight, had maximum sustained winds of about 130 miles per hour as it moved toward the west-northwest at 17 mph.

Patricia was last located about 275 miles south of the port of Manzanillo, where a hurricane warning had been issued. A tropical storm warning was in effect for the tourist resort of Puerto Vallarta.

The storm was expected to gain more strength before making landfall in the hurricane warning area by Friday afternoon or evening, the Miami-based hurricane center said.

Mexican emergency officials began to prepare shelters and warned people in the states of Colima, Jalisco and Michoacan to get ready for torrential rainfalls.

None of the major installations of Mexican state oil giant Pemex lie in the projected path of the storm, officials said.
 
mzkitty

mzkitty

I give up.
"Extremely dangerous" Hurricane Patricia about to slam into Mexico

Oh boy.

7m
'Extremely dangerous' Hurricane Patricia may strengthen to category 5 Thursday night, weather service says; core of storm to make landfall in hurricane warning area Friday afternoon or evening - @NHC_Pacific

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCPEP5+shtml/222347.shtml


Hurricane Patricia Strengthens Into Dangerous Category 4 Storm

Oct 22 2015, 8:00 pm ET

MEXICO CITY — Hurricane Patricia strengthened into an "extremely dangerous" Category 4 storm on Thursday as it churned toward Mexico's Pacific coast, the U.S. National Hurricane Center said.

The storm, which became a hurricane overnight, had maximum sustained winds of about 130 miles per hour as it moved toward the west-northwest at 17 mph.

Patricia was last located about 275 miles south of the port of Manzanillo, where a hurricane warning had been issued. A tropical storm warning was in effect for the tourist resort of Puerto Vallarta.

The storm was expected to gain more strength before making landfall in the hurricane warning area by Friday afternoon or evening, the Miami-based hurricane center said.

Mexican emergency officials began to prepare shelters and warned people in the states of Colima, Jalisco and Michoacan to get ready for torrential rainfalls.

None of the major installations of Mexican state oil giant Pemex lie in the projected path of the storm, officials said.

http://www.nbcnews.com/news/weather...gthens-dangerous-category-4-hurricane-n449451
 

Attachments

  • patricia 1.gif
    patricia 1.gif
    27.9 KB · Views: 472
mzkitty

mzkitty

I give up.
Force13AU ‏@Force13Au 12m12 minutes ago

#Mexico #Hurricane #Patricia continues to deepen and heading towards CAT 5 status.
 

Attachments

  • patricia 2.jpg
    patricia 2.jpg
    20 KB · Views: 462
  • patricia 3.jpg
    patricia 3.jpg
    70.3 KB · Views: 460
Millwright

Millwright

Knuckle Dragger
_______________
The floods of October, 1994 in SE Texas were from the remains of a tropical system that drifted across Mexico and merged with a front coming from the Rockies.

Up to 28" of rain fell in a coupla days.
 
S

somdwatcher

Veteran Member
Category 5 Hurricane Patricia now,

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCPEP5+shtml/230238.shtml

BULLETIN
HURRICANE PATRICIA ADVISORY NUMBER 12
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP202015
1000 PM CDT THU OCT 22 2015

...POTENTIALLY CATASTROPHIC HURRICANE PATRICIA TURNING TOWARD
SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.2N 105.1W
ABOUT 200 MI...320 KM SSW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
ABOUT 295 MI...470 KM S OF CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...160 MPH...260 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...924 MB...27.29 INCHES
 
S

somdwatcher

Veteran Member
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCDEP5+shtml/230240.shtml

HURRICANE PATRICIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 12
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP202015
1000 PM CDT THU OCT 22 2015

Patricia continues to explosively intensify, with the eye becoming
warmer and better defined, along with a solid ring of very cold -90C
cloud tops in the eyewall. Subjective and objective Dvorak
estimates support an initial wind speed of 140 kt, and an An Air
Force Reserve reconnaissance unit aircraft is en route to check the
intensity of the hurricane. Patricia is estimated to have
intensified 85 kt in the past 24 hours, from a tropical storm to a
category 5 hurricane during that time. This is a remarkable feat,
with only Linda of 1997 intensifying at this rate in the satellite
era. The hurricane could strengthen a little more before increasing
southwesterly shear causes Patricia to weaken some by Friday
afternoon, although it should remain an extremely dangerous
hurricane through landfall. The latest forecast is close to the
previous NHC prediction, updated for the higher initial wind speed.
After landfall, the hurricane should rapidly weaken over the high
terrain and dissipate by 48 hours over the Sierra Madre mountains.

The hurricane continues to turn more poleward and slow down, with an
initial motion estimate of 330/9. The track forecast reasoning
remains unchanged with Patricia expected to turn northward during
the next 12 hours as it moves around the periphery of a mid-level
high centered over the Gulf of Mexico. The hurricane is then
forecast to accelerate north-northeastward between the high and an
amplifying trough over northwestern Mexico. The latest NHC
forecast is close to the previous one, nudged a bit to the east to
better reflect the latest consensus guidance.

Model guidance continues to suggest that the mid-level remnants and
moisture from Patricia will be absorbed by a non-tropical area of
low pressure that forms over south Texas or the northwestern Gulf of
Mexico this weekend. This moisture could contribute to a major
rainfall event already ongoing across portions of Texas. For more
information, please refer to products from your local National
Weather Service office and the NOAA Weather Prediction Center.

KEY MESSAGES:

1. Confidence is high that Patricia will make landfall in the
hurricane warning area along the coast of Mexico as an extremely
dangerous major hurricane Friday afternoon or evening. Preparations
to protect life and property in the hurricane warning area should be
completed as tropical storm conditions will begin to affect
the warning area overnight or early Friday.

2. In addition to the coastal impacts, very heavy rainfall is
likely to cause life-threatening flash floods and mud slides in the
Mexican states of Jalisco, Colima, Michoacan and Guerrero beginning
late tonight and continuing into Saturday.



FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 23/0300Z 16.2N 105.1W 140 KT 160 MPH
12H 23/1200Z 17.4N 105.7W 145 KT 165 MPH
24H 24/0000Z 19.7N 105.3W 125 KT 145 MPH...ON THE COAST
36H 24/1200Z 22.5N 103.5W 50 KT 60 MPH...INLAND
48H 25/0000Z...DISSIPATED
 
mzkitty

mzkitty

I give up.
Sitio de Paola Rojas ‏@paolarojascommx 1m1 minute ago

Huracán #Patricia se convierte en categoría 5 @Paola_Rojas_H
 

Attachments

  • patricia 4.jpg
    patricia 4.jpg
    78.5 KB · Views: 403
N

night driver

ESFP adrift in INTJ sea
This morning Roker indicated that by mid week my friends in Dallas and environs could expect 12+" of rain............. Possum Kingdom WILL open ALL of their gates (all 5) and Santo and points south on the Brazos will be VERY deep in water.
 
P

Publius

TB Fanatic
After the storm passes, someone that can write spanish, should post on the mexicans on their boards that the effected areas in mexico are hiring people for construction work paying twice the normal going rate.
See how many mexicans start leaving the country in a hurray.
 
bev

bev

Has No Life - Lives on TB
Yeah Publius, that's for certain! We lived in LA during Katrina and Rita, and there were MANY roofers that showed up about 3 days after and got right to work. I'd guess they were all busy for at least a few months.

One that we met said that was his job, following storms all over the country. Tough to do that with a family though.
 
Lilbitsnana

Lilbitsnana

On TB every waking moment
Wow, sustained winds are up to 185 mph now


000
WTPZ35 KNHC 230530
TCPEP5

BULLETIN
HURRICANE PATRICIA SPECIAL ADVISORY NUMBER 13
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP202015
1230 AM CDT FRI OCT 23 2015

...CATEGORY 5 HURRICANE PATRICIA STRENGTHENS EVEN MORE...
...POTENTIALLY CATASTROPHIC LANDFALL IN SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO LATER
TODAY...


SUMMARY OF 1230 AM CDT...0530 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.5N 105.3W
ABOUT 185 MI...295 KM SSW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
ABOUT 270 MI...435 KM S OF CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...185 MPH...295 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...892 MB...26.34 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* San Blas to Punta San Telmo

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* East of Punta San Telmo to Lazaro Cardenas

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* East of Punta San Telmo to Lazaro Cardenas

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area, in this case within about 24
hours. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to
completion.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 1230 AM CDT (0530 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Patricia was
located near latitude 16.5 North, longitude 105.3 West. Patricia
is moving toward the north-northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h). A turn
toward the north is expected later this morning, followed by a turn
toward the north-northeast this afternoon. On the forecast track,
the core of Patricia will make landfall in the hurricane warning
area this afternoon or evening.

Reports from an Air Force Reserve Unit Hurricane Hunter aircraft
indicate that the maximum sustained winds have increased to near 185
mph (295 km/h) with higher gusts. Patricia is a category 5
hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Some
fluctuations in intensity are possible today, but Patricia is
expected to remain an extremely dangerous category 5 hurricane
through landfall.

Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the
center and tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 175 miles
(280 km).

The minimum central pressure estimated from Hurricane Hunter
observations is 892 mb (26.34 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected to first reach the
hurricane warning area this afternoon. Tropical storm conditions
are expected to first reach the warning areas early today,
making outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to
protect life and property should be rushed to completion. Hurricane
conditions are possible in the hurricane watch area late today.

RAINFALL: Patricia is expected to produce total rainfall
accumulations of 6 to 12 inches, with isolated maximum amounts of 20
inches, over the Mexican states of Jalisco, Colima, Michoacan and
Guerrero through Saturday. These rains could produce
life-threatening flash floods and mud slides.

STORM SURGE: An extremely dangerous storm surge is expected to
produce significant coastal flooding near and to the right of where
the center makes landfall. Near the coast, the surge will be
accompanied by large and destructive waves.

SURF: Swells generated by Patricia are already affecting portions
of the southern coast of Mexico, and will spread northwestward
during the next day or so. These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 400 AM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Pasch

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCPEP5+shtml/230530.shtml?
 
Lilbitsnana

Lilbitsnana

On TB every waking moment
Saffir Simpson wind scale (Cat 3 and higher are considered "Major")


Category One Hurricane: Sustained winds 74-95 mph (64-82 kt or 119-153 km/hr).

Category Two Hurricane: Sustained winds 96-110 mph (83-95 kt or 154-177 km/hr).

Category Three Hurricane: Sustained winds 111-129 mph (96-112 kt or 178-208 km/hr).

Category Four Hurricane: Sustained winds 130-156mph (113-136kt or 209-251 km/hr).

Category Five Hurricane: Sustained winds greater than 156 mph (136 kt or 251 km/hr).
 
S

somdwatcher

Veteran Member
OMG.....200mph now and still forecasted to intensify.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCDEP5+shtml/230834.shtml

HURRICANE PATRICIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 14
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP202015
400 AM CDT FRI OCT 23 2015

Data from three center fixes by the Hurricane Hunters indicate
that the intensity, based on a blend of 700 mb-flight level and
SFMR-observed surface winds, is near 175 kt. This makes Patricia
the strongest hurricane on record in the National Hurricane Center's
area of responsibility (AOR) which includes the Atlantic and the
eastern North Pacific basins. The minimum central pressure
estimated from the aircraft data, 880 mb, is the lowest ever for
our AOR. It seems incredible that even more strengthening could
occur before landfall later today, but recent microwave imagery
shows hints of a concentric eyewall developing. If the trend
toward an eyewall replacement continues, it would cause the
intensity to at least level off later today. The official forecast
shows only a little more strengthening before landfall. Given the
very mountainous terrain that Patricia should encounter after
landfall, the cyclone should weaken even faster over land than
predicted by the normal inland decay rate.

Recent center fixes show that the hurricane is gradually turning
toward the right, and the initial motion estimate is 340/10 kt. The
track forecast scenario remains about the same. Patricia should
continue to move around the western periphery of a mid-level
anticyclone today and turn north-northeastward ahead of a trough to
the northwest tonight and Saturday. The official track forecast is
somewhat slower than the latest model consensus and lies between
the GFS and ECMWF solutions.

The global models continue to depict the development of a cyclone
near the Texas coast over the weekend. Based on the predicted
upper-level winds, this system should be non-tropical in nature.
However this cyclone is expected to draw significant amounts of
moisture from Patricia's remnants, and could result in locally
heavy rainfall over portions of the northwestern Gulf of Mexico
coastal area within the next few days. Refer to statements from
local National Weather Service forecast offices for details.

We would like to acknowledge deeply the Air Force Hurricane Hunters
for their observations establishing Patricia as a record-breaking
hurricane. Clearly, without their data, we would never have known
just how strong a tropical cyclone it was.

KEY MESSAGES:

1. Confidence is high that Patricia will make landfall in the
hurricane warning area along the coast of Mexico as an extremely
dangerous category 5 hurricane this afternoon or evening.
Preparations to protect life and property in the hurricane warning
area should have been completed, or rushed to completion, as
tropical storm conditions are beginning to affect the area.
Residents in low-lying areas near the coast in the hurricane warning
area should evacuate immediately, since the storm surge could be
catastrophic near and to the east of where the center makes
landfall.

2. In addition to the coastal impacts, very heavy rainfall is
likely to cause life-threatening flash floods and mud slides in the
Mexican states of Jalisco, Colima, Michoacan and Guerrero continuing
into Saturday.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 23/0900Z 17.0N 105.5W 175 KT 200 MPH
12H 23/1800Z 18.8N 105.4W 180 KT 205 MPH
24H 24/0600Z 21.7N 104.2W 60 KT 70 MPH...INLAND
36H 24/1800Z 24.5N 102.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 25/0600Z...DISSIPATED
 
S

somdwatcher

Veteran Member
Get out of Puerto Vallarta....NOW!! This hurricane is the strongest in history of Western Hemisphere and is forecasted to track VERY close to or over that city just after landfall. Patricia is a very extreme storm and a very small radius of extreme wind. It is possible to be close to the center of this hurricane and not receive the extreme wind, but that is way too risky.
 
Lilbitsnana

Lilbitsnana

On TB every waking moment
000
WTPZ35 KNHC 230833
TCPEP5

BULLETIN
HURRICANE PATRICIA ADVISORY NUMBER 14
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP202015
400 AM CDT FRI OCT 23 2015

...PATRICIA...
...THE STRONGEST EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC HURRICANE ON RECORD...
...POTENTIALLY CATASTROPHIC LANDFALL IN SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO LATER
TODAY...


SUMMARY OF 400 AM CDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.0N 105.5W
ABOUT 160 MI...255 KM SSW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
ABOUT 235 MI...380 KM S OF CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...200 MPH...325 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 340 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...880 MB...25.99 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* San Blas to Punta San Telmo

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* East of Punta San Telmo to Lazaro Cardenas

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* East of Punta San Telmo to Lazaro Cardenas

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area, in this case within about 24
hours. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to
completion.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 400 AM CDT (0900 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Patricia was
located near latitude 17.0 North, longitude 105.5 West. Patricia
is moving toward the north-northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h). A turn
toward the north is expected later this morning, followed by a turn
toward the north-northeast this afternoon. On the forecast track,
the core of Patricia will make landfall in the hurricane warning
area this afternoon or evening.

Reports from an Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that
the maximum sustained winds have increased to near 200 mph (325
km/h) with higher gusts. Patricia is a category 5 hurricane on the
Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Some fluctuations in intensity
are possible today, but Patricia is expected to remain an extremely
dangerous category 5 hurricane through landfall.

Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 30 miles (45 km) from the
center and tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 175 miles
(280 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 880 mb (25.99 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected to first reach the
hurricane warning area this afternoon. Tropical storm conditions
are beginning to spread across portions of the warning area.
Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to
completion. Hurricane conditions are possible in the hurricane
watch area later today.

RAINFALL: Patricia is expected to produce total rainfall
accumulations of 8 to 12 inches, with isolated maximum amounts of 20
inches, over the Mexican states of Nayarit, Jalisco, Colima,
MIchoacan and Guerrero through Saturday. These rains could produce
life-threatening flash floods and mud slides.

STORM SURGE: An extremely dangerous storm surge is expected to
produce significant coastal flooding near and to the right of where
the center makes landfall. Near the coast, the surge will be
accompanied by large and destructive waves.

SURF: Swells generated by Patricia are already affecting portions
of the southern coast of Mexico, and will spread northwestward
during the next day or so. These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 700 AM CDT.
Next complete advisory at 1000 AM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Pasch
 
mzkitty

mzkitty

I give up.
People are somewhat joking about making this a special Category 6.

Adam Dean ‏@WxDiz 1m1 minute ago

200 MPH... ARE... YOU... KIDDING... ME?!?!? This is amazing! #HurricanePatricia #hurricane #Patricia
 

Attachments

  • patricia 6.jpg
    patricia 6.jpg
    112.4 KB · Views: 328
mzkitty

mzkitty

I give up.
The Weather Channel Verified account
‏@weatherchannel

CATASTROPHIC: Hurricane #Patricia now strongest hurricane ever measured; max winds 200 mph, landfall 12-18hrs away!
 

Attachments

  • patricia 7.jpg
    patricia 7.jpg
    39.7 KB · Views: 326
mzkitty

mzkitty

I give up.
The reason the winds will die down fast once it hits land is because of the mountains, I was reading.

Gusting to 225 mph:

Sujeeth Narra ‏@TechieRPh 2m2 minutes ago

Intense "@KylaGrogan: CAT 5 - #Hurricane #Patricia looks unbelievable. Expected to hit #Mexico. #CBSPhilly "
 

Attachments

  • patricia 8.jpg
    patricia 8.jpg
    69.2 KB · Views: 323
mzkitty

mzkitty

I give up.
Paul LeClair ‏@PaulLeClairG 15m15 minutes ago

@NWSNHC needs to classify #Patricia as a #Category6 #hurricane

No words can describe this storm @weatherchannel


Ed Vallee ‏@EdValleeWx 11m11 minutes ago

#Patricia is an incredibly compact, powerful #hurricane. Devastation in south-central Mexico is inevitable.
 

Attachments

  • patricia 9.jpg
    patricia 9.jpg
    38.3 KB · Views: 316
Melodi

Melodi

Disaster Cat
Since the highest non-hurricane winds ever recorded was 231mph on Mt Washington in 1934 (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wind_speed); that hurricane has gusts that are getting very close to that margin and could potentially break that record!

Of course the record never meant the wind couldn't get any higher than that, just that humans had not had a chance to record it, if and when they did.

The Mountains look like they could give the Gulf a pass on this one and since it seems very close to land at this point, it is unlikely to turn in such a way that it will cross the entire country and reform; but with hurricanes you never know.

This could be very-very bad for Mexico, they don't have the the resources to deal with something this big; as happened after Mitch I think the US and Canada will need to step in to help; to do so is enlightened self interest. Desperate and displaced people will try to move North, if they have aid and help at home they are less like to do so (some will anyway, but it is unlikely to be the wall of up to one million people that was starting to form a few months after Mitch hit and people simply had nothing left and no where to go after the industries pulled out).
 
mzkitty

mzkitty

I give up.
Rob Marciano Verified account ‏@RobMarciano 2m2 minutes ago

#Hurricane #Patricia is frightening - blowing up to 200 mph winds over 88F water temps. Praying for #Manzanillo and all of Colima, #Mexico
 
mzkitty

mzkitty

I give up.
9m
San Patricio and Barra de Navidad areas of Mexico will experience equivalent EF-5 tornado and 20 foot tsunami at same time as Hurricane Patricia makes landfall - @BillKarins

:dot5::dot5::dot5:
 
Lilbitsnana

Lilbitsnana

On TB every waking moment
posted for fair use and discussion
http://www.nbcnews.com/news/weather...gthens-dangerous-category-4-hurricane-n449451


Hurricane Patricia: Strongest Storm Ever Measured to Hit Mexico

by Jason Cumming and M. Alex Johnson

Mexico's Pacific Coast Prepares for Hurricane Patricia 0:36

Hurricane Patricia became the strongest storm ever measured on the planet early Friday with experts warning it could trigger 39-foot waves along Mexico's coast and "life-threatening" flash flooding.

Several million residents were told to prepare for the "worst-case scenario" as Patricia was expected to race ashore on Mexico's Pacific coast late Friday afternoon or early evening. The tourist magnets of Puerto Vallarta and Manzanillo were directly in the Category 5 storm's projected path.

Featuring 200 mph winds, the U.S. National Hurricane Center described Patricia the "strongest hurricane on record" in the Atlantic and eastern North Pacific Basins.

For posterity-- 200 mph for a #hurricane- never seen that in modern satellite era! #Patricia #climate #ElNino pic.twitter.com/o25GoIiAuF
— Eric Blake (@EricBlake12) October 23, 2015

NBC News meteorologist Bill Karins warned that Patricia would be "the most devastating storm to ever hit Mexico" with "catastrophic damage" likely between Puerto Vallarta and Manzanillo.

While typhoons Nancy and Violet had stronger estimated winds, Patricia was the strongest storm ever actually observed, Karins added.

At 1:30 a.m. ET, Patricia was about 185 miles south-southwest of Manzanillo, and about 270 miles south of Cabo Corrientes.

Hurricane warnings stretched from San Blas to Punta San Telmo, an area that includes Puerto Vallarta and Manzanillo. CONAGUA, the Mexican national water commission, predicted waves up to 39 feet at landfall.

#SanPatricio & #BarraDeNavidad will experience equivalent EF5 tornado & 20 foot tsunami at same time. #Patricia pic.twitter.com/qMyWOeNTTO
— Bill Karins (@BillKarins) October 23, 2015

The National Hurricane Center said it was expected to produce deadly rip currents and "life-threatening flash floods and mudslides."

It added: "Some fluctuations in intensity are possible today, but Patricia is expected to remain an extremely dangerous Category 5 hurricane through landfall."

For perspective: Population Puerto Vallarta 200k, Manzanillo 100k. 170 miles and 4 hour drive between cites. pic.twitter.com/UbbaG9sGzX
— Bill Karins (@BillKarins) October 23, 2015

Up to 20 inches of rain was predicted for the Mexican states of Jalisco, Colima, Michoacan and Guerrero through Saturday, the NHC said.

The Mexican government declared a state of emergency.

The U.S. Consulate General in Guadalajara urged Americans in the hurricane warning area to "make preparations immediately to protect life and property."

Historic #Patricia God help these people in its path. pic.twitter.com/hLgDM3Xsz1
— Jim Cantore (@JimCantore) October 23, 2015

Rogelio Estreda, a representative for the Grand Fiesta Americana Resort in Puerto Vallarta, told NBC News that the site would be evacuated at 7 a.m. local time (8 a.m. ET).

"We are expecting something bad, but maybe nothing will happen," Estreda said. "It can change at any time."

12H 23/1800Z 18.8N 105.4W 180 KT 205 MPH! What that says is in 12 hours when this is coming ashore it will be at 205 MPH!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
— Stephanie Abrams (@StephanieAbrams) October 23, 2015

Laura Diane Rebholz, who co-owns a modeling agency in Scottsdale, Arizona, told NBC News early Friday that she felt it was "safer to ride the storm out" at the Puerto Vallarta hotel where she's vacationing. <<< idiot

"It's almost as if it's literally 'the calm before the storm'," she said. "It's very much business as usual around the resort with staff seemingly unfazed by the hurricane."

Patricia would be only the second category 5 hurricane to hit the entire Pacific coast since full recordkeeping began in 1949. An unnamed storm struck in late October 1959 near Manzanillo, killing an estimated 1,800 people — 800 of them from mudslides alone.

Karins added that 10 inches of rain were already predicted for Texas over the next three days, warning that "what's left of Patricia will make flooding in south Texas even worse" on Sunday.

Image when #HurricanePatricia became strongest storm ever in Atlantic & Eastern Pacific Basins 200mph - 880mb pic.twitter.com/OM9QsP1Nr7
— Bill Karins (@BillKarins) October 23, 2015
 
Lilbitsnana

Lilbitsnana

On TB every waking moment
basically unchanged

ZCZC MIATCPEP5 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

BULLETIN
HURRICANE PATRICIA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 14A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP202015
700 AM CDT FRI OCT 23 2015

...PATRICIA...
...THE STRONGEST EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC HURRICANE ON RECORD...
...HEADING FOR POTENTIALLY CATASTROPHIC LANDFALL IN SOUTHWESTERN
MEXICO LATER TODAY...


SUMMARY OF 700 AM CDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.3N 105.6W
ABOUT 145 MI...235 KM SW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
ABOUT 215 MI...345 KM S OF CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...200 MPH...325 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 345 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...880 MB...25.99 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* San Blas to Punta San Telmo

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* East of Punta San Telmo to Lazaro Cardenas

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* East of Punta San Telmo to Lazaro Cardenas

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area, in this case within about 24
hours. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to
completion.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 700 AM CDT (1200 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Patricia was
located near latitude 17.3 North, longitude 105.6 West. Patricia
is moving toward the north-northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h). A turn
toward the north is expected later this morning, followed by a turn
toward the north-northeast this afternoon. On the forecast track,
the core of Patricia will make landfall in the hurricane warning
area this afternoon or evening.

Maximum sustained winds remain near 200 mph (325 km/h) with higher
gusts. Patricia is a category 5 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
Hurricane Wind Scale. Some fluctuations in intensity are possible
today, but Patricia is expected to remain an extremely dangerous
category 5 hurricane through landfall.

Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 30 miles (45 km) from the
center and tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 175 miles
(280 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 880 mb (25.99 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected to first reach the
hurricane warning area this afternoon. Tropical storm conditions
are beginning to spread across portions of the warning area.
Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to
completion. Hurricane conditions are possible in the hurricane
watch area later today.

RAINFALL: Patricia is expected to produce total rainfall
accumulations of 8 to 12 inches, with isolated maximum amounts of 20
inches, over the Mexican states of Nayarit, Jalisco, Colima,
MIchoacan and Guerrero through Saturday. These rains could produce
life-threatening flash floods and mud slides.

STORM SURGE: An extremely dangerous storm surge is expected to
produce significant coastal flooding near and to the right of where
the center makes landfall. Near the coast, the surge will be
accompanied by large and destructive waves.

SURF: Swells generated by Patricia are already affecting portions
of the southern coast of Mexico, and will spread northwestward
during the next day or so. These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1000 AM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Beven

NNNN
 
Lilbitsnana

Lilbitsnana

On TB every waking moment
A live webcam in Puerto Vallarta to watch later (if it goes into the PV area)


Webcams de México ‏@webcamsdemexico 9m9 minutes ago

Huracán #Patricia Aún no amanece en #PuertoVallarta Desde webcam en streaming se escucha el mar todavía en calma http://webcamsdemexico.com/videos.php?v=tUgyOFEI8-Q&streams=1 …

bing translation:


Webcams Mexico @webcamsdemexico 9m 9 minutes ago

Hurricane #Patricia still not dawns on #PuertoVallarta webcam in streaming listening to the still calm sea http://webcamsdemexico.com/videos.php?v=tUgyOFEI8-Q&streams=1...
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Top