Celestial Possible Dangerous Comet Imminent 26Jan2023

LightEcho

LightEcho

Has No Life - Lives on TB
Short video. 3:31.

Found by AI scan. Uncertainty is 7 out of 9, meaning the data is scarce enough that it is very uncertain. Was originally 0.00045 au distance. That would work out to be within about 30,000 miles of the earth center. Update below, now it is expected to hit on the 27th. 10 feet in diameter at maybe 14,000mph. That is a fast bullet that could take out a city... or prompt a big EQ.


New update NEO 2023BU inbound for .17 UTC time on the 27th UTC time which is 6.17 Central time on the 26th Central time in the U.S. Condition code reduced to a 6 and distance reduced to .00007 AU. Not a big NEO and not an Earth killer.
View: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=t78oI2mKa2g
 
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tanstaafl

Has No Life - Lives on TB
Ten feet in diameter isn't going to take out a city unless it's moving a heck of a lot faster than 14,000 mph ... and that's assuming nothing burns off or falls off during the trip through the atmosphere.
 
Kayak

Kayak

Adrenaline Junkie
It's reportedly, "the size of a giraffe". Supposed to fly between the satellites and earth, somewhere over South America.

If it hits, it'll be a local event, not a global one.

It sounds to me like they're more worried about it wiping a few satellites out than an earth strike.
 
LightEcho

LightEcho

Has No Life - Lives on TB
A satellite wipe could become a debris wide satellite swipe. Cascade of debris is a concern for a crowded sky.
 
20Gauge

20Gauge

TB Fanatic
Very little on the web about this. All of it is saying it won't hit 0% chance. I find that hard to believe as nothing is 0% chance in this world of ours. Rather nothing is 0% as long as Murphy reigns supreme.

Also, they are mis-stating the numbers from what I read. They say it will be 6k miles away, but don't really mention from the center of the earth things until later in the articles. Earth is 4k miles from center to crust, more or less.

So it may or may not hit at 2k above our surface. So what is the margin of error??? Still unknown.

Effects of gravity?? Unknown, but at that speed not too much....

I did some math conversions on the web, so this may be way off. So don't slam me......

Guessing 1 ton weight based upon the description ( allowing for burn off )
Guessing 22k mph based upon information provided

Using a formula calculation on the web it will have an AVERAGE of 1.9 giganewtons impact force if it hits.

That works out to be about 0.2 gigatons of impact.

Hiroshima was 16k tonnes of tnt.... and this seems to be 2000 mega tons. Figuring I may have slipped a digit somewhere, ( I really hope so ) That is still has the potential to be significant for sure.....
 
LightEcho

LightEcho

Has No Life - Lives on TB
Could be nothing... but it could be serious in various ways. That is alot of energy to suddenly punch into our surface. If it hits satellites, we will have some interesting fireworks to view, but could be major communications interruptions. If it happens, most people will be clueless as to what it is, thinking maybe it is a missile from Russia.
 
20Gauge

20Gauge

TB Fanatic
Most likely is nothing. In truth 99.999% of the time it is......

I just find it interesting that there is very little news about this. Normally we hear quite a bit about a "meteor" hitting or nearly hitting Earth....

Nothing..... rather almost nothing.....

That reminds me too much of too many books I have read. Far too many.

Also, there is a 75% chance it will hit water.
They have said it will be a Southern Hemisphere thing.

Do you own math.

I see the following it it does hit and is a big / fast as they say.....

1) Tidal Waves
2) A City or three wiped due to Tidal Waves
3) No summer if it hits land.
 
D

Delta

Has No Life - Lives on TB
I don't know why they have to tell us this stuff. It rather takes the fun out of post-apocalypse speculation.
 
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tanstaafl

Has No Life - Lives on TB
20Gauge said:
1) Tidal Waves
2) A City or three wiped due to Tidal Waves
3) No summer if it hits land.
Click to expand...

What a load of crap! Not with a ten foot diameter object! Typically an impact crater is about 20 times the size of the impactor, so even if you assume the object loses nothing during its journey through atmosphere (highly unlikely) you still only have about a 200 foot crater at best. Even if it hit smack in the middle of Central Park I imagine the most you'd get a mile away would be broken windows, and New York City and burroughs would survive just fine. Now if you told me the speed was not 14,000 mph but rather 14,000 miles per second, well then I would start getting nervous.
 
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tanstaafl

Has No Life - Lives on TB
As this thing zings by Earth later today, amidst all the breathless "It's among the closest things to ever pass by Earth!!!!" remember that there have been documented cases of an asteroid entering the Earth's atmosphere, travelling a fair distance, and then skipping back out into space. The most famous one:

1972 Great Daylight Fireball - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org en.wikipedia.org

And that's not even the only recorded incident. There was another one as recently as September 22, 2020.
 
danielboon

danielboon

TB Fanatic

Asteroid 2023 BU: Space rock to pass closer than some satellites
​


Graphic showing the trajectories of Asteroid 2023 BU and the orbit of common satellites around Earth.

By Jonathan Amos
BBC Science Correspondent

You definitely shouldn't panic but there is a biggish asteroid about to pass by Earth in the coming hours.
About the size of a minibus, the space rock, known as 2023 BU, will whip over the southern tip of South America just after midnight GMT.
With a closest expected approach of 3,600km (2,200 miles), it counts as a close shave.
And it illustrates how there are still asteroids of significant size lurking near Earth that remain to be detected.
This one was only picked up last weekend by amateur astronomer Gennadiy Borisov, who operates from Nauchnyi in Crimea, the peninsula that Russia seized from Ukraine in 2014.
Follow up observations have refined what we know about 2023 BU's size and, crucially, its orbit.

That's how astronomers can be so confident it will miss the planet, even though it will come inside the arc occupied by the world's telecommunications satellites, which sit 36,000km (22,000 miles) above us.
The chances of hitting a satellite are very, very small.
The time of lowest altitude is calculated to be 19.27 EST on Thursday; 00:27 GMT on Friday.
Asteroid
IMAGE SOURCE,GETTY IMAGES
Image caption,
Artwork: We still have a lot to learn about the near-Earth environment
Even if 2023 BU was on a direct collision course, it would struggle to do much damage.
With an estimated size of 3.5m to 8.5m across (11.5ft to 28ft), the rock would likely disintegrate high in the atmosphere. It would though produce a spectacular fireball.
For comparison, the famous Chelyabinsk meteor that entered Earth's atmosphere over southern Russia in 2013 was an object near 20m (66ft) across. It produced a shockwave that shattered windows on the ground.

Scientists at the US space agency Nasa say 2023 BU's orbit around the Sun will be modified by its encounter with Earth.
Our planet's gravity will pull on it and adjust its path through space.
"Before encountering Earth, the asteroid's orbit around the Sun was roughly circular, approximating Earth's orbit, taking 359 days to complete its orbit about the Sun," the agency said in a statement.
"After its encounter, the asteroid's orbit will be more elongated, moving it out to about halfway between Earth's and Mars' orbits at its farthest point from the Sun. The asteroid will then complete one orbit every 425 days."
There is a great effort under way to find the much larger asteroids that really could do damage if they were to strike the Earth. Asteroid 2023 BU: Space rock to pass closer than some satellites
 
pauldingbabe

pauldingbabe

The Great Cat
tanstaafl said:
Considering it passed by about 2 hours ago and the Internet isn't full of stories about Buenos Aires or another South American city going incommunicado, I'd say it was a No Go.
Click to expand...


Just checking...

Thank you for validating that I am indeed not alone on the internet.

It would get tiresome replying to myself and what not.

Glad to be here.

:)
 
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tanstaafl

Has No Life - Lives on TB
We should probably start looking for the Arachnids. It was Buenos Aires they took out in "Starship Troopers." Somewhat lost in the shuffle is that it was probably a Russian astronomer (seeing as how they were on the Crimean Peninsula) who spotted this thing coming.
 
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