WAR Regional conflict brewing in the Mediterranean

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Zagdid

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www.middleeasteye.net

Libya's eastern government to open Syria embassy to confront 'Turkish aggression'

UAE-backed administration following Abu Dhabi's lead in opening Syrian diplomatic mission
www.middleeasteye.net www.middleeasteye.net

Libya's eastern government to open Syria embassy to confront 'Turkish aggression'
Published date: 2 March 2020 16:24 UTC

UAE-backed administration following Abu Dhabi's lead in opening Syrian diplomatic mission.

Libya's eastern government will open an embassy in the Syrian capital of Damascus in an effort to confront “Turkish aggression” in both countries, Syria's official SANA news agency reported.
Diplomatic ties between Syria and Libya were cut in 2012 after Nato-backed rebels ousted and killed Libya's longtime autocrat Muammar Gaddafi.
Libya is now divided between two rival governments, one based in the east and supported by Khalifa Haftar's Libyan National Army, the other UN-recognised administration based in Tripoli.
The GNA is backed by Turkey and Qatar, while the eastern government is backed by Saudi Arabia, Russia and the United Arab Emirates.
"A memorandum of understanding was signed... for the reopening of diplomatic and consular missions," SANA reported.

The two sides said they will coordinate to "confront Turkish interference and aggression against both countries".
The agreement was signed on Sunday in Damascus by Syria’s Foreign Minister Walid Muallem and two officials from Libya's eastern government: Deputy Prime Minister Abdul-Rahman al-Ahiresh and Foreign Minister Abdul-Hadi al-Hawaij.

Turkey is currently engaged in military conflicts in both Libya and Syria.
With the LNA currently staging an assault on the Libyan capital, the Tripoli-based Government of National Accord is being propped up with Turkish military support.

Meanwhile in northern Syria, Turkey has staged several military operations, the latest of which is being carried out in northwestern Idlib province.

On Sunday, Erdogan launched a military campaign called “Spring Shield” against pro-Syrian government forces, attempting to counter a months-long Damascus offensive against rebel groups that has displaced around a million people towards the Turkish border.

By setting up diplomatic ties with Syrian President Bashar al-Assad's Damascus, Libya's eastern government follows the United Arab Emirates and Bahrain as the third Arab administration to do so since the outbreak of Syria's war in 2011.

When a crackdown on protests spiralled into civil war, the Arab League and its members all severed ties with Damascus.
In December, Emirati diplomat Abdul Hakim Ibrahim al-Nuaimi praised Assad's government and doubled down on Abu Dhabi's commitment to strengthen relations between the two countries, during a reception at the newly renovated embassy in Damascus.

The Arab League, meanwhile, called in December for Syria to be reinstated, echoing calls made in Egyptian state-run media for several months.
 
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Pentagon says US will not retaliate for Turkey in Syria

Jack Detsch March 2, 2020

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Article Summary

The United States will not take direct action in Syria despite a dramatic uptick in violence and calls for an immediate no-fly zone over Idlib, which would require the Pentagon to take out aircraft and airfields.

REUTERS/Stoyan Nenov
A Turkish tank is unloaded on a road near the Turkish border town of Ceylanpinar, Sanliurfa province, Turkey, Oct. 18, 2019.

The US administration has ruled out retaliatory airstrikes in Syria after at least 34 Turkish troops were killed in an attack last week, Defense Secretary Mark Esper said today.
Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Mark Milley, the US military’s top officer, said today that the United States "doesn't have clear, unambiguous intelligence on who was flying which planes." But the deadly strikes took place at night, and Al-Monitor’s Amberin Zaman reported on Sunday that only Russian pilots have the capability to fly in Syrian airspace after dark.

Esper and Milley’s comments appeared to further steer the US administration away from a possible military response in Syria, even after President Donald Trump ally Sen. Lindsey Graham, R-Sc., called for an immediate no-fly zone over Idlib on Thursday. Graham spent hours with Trump on Friday at a rally in his home state.
But current and former administration officials said there was little likelihood of such a no-fly zone, which would require the Pentagon to take out aircraft and airfields. “That would be impossible unless we were willing to shoot down Russian or Turkish jets,” a former senior administration official told Al-Monitor.
In the wake of Graham’s statement, Capitol Hill sources contacted by Al-Monitor said they were not aware of any legislative proposal for a no-fly zone in Syria. Esper told lawmakers last week that the administration had not discussed “reengaging in the civil war.”

The State Department, led by special envoy for Syria Engagement James Jeffrey, has tried to put forward the idea of a no-fly zone before, but only for areas where 600 US troops are stationed in northern Syria, the former official told Al-Monitor. The idea had not come up at US Central Command, the Pentagon’s command center for the Middle East.
Legal barriers to such a proposal could also prove prohibitive, US officials have said. A senior aide to Jeffrey said at a closed-door event in Washington last week that the United States lacks legal avenues to ground Syrian President Bashar al-Assad’s air force or shoot down his warplanes.
American troops are still in Syria in a reduced role after Trump ordered a withdrawal from areas of the northeast recaptured from the Islamic State last fall to allow for a Turkish incursion. The US forces killed 200 to 300 Russian fighters and pro-regime troops in a four-hour battle in February 2018 over the Conoco oil fields, a major petroleum installation controlled by the US-backed Syrian Democratic Forces.

Turkey also triggered consultations under NATO’s Article 4 on Friday as it carried out a series of drone strikes targeting Syrian regime forces that Ankara says laid waste to more than 100 tanks and killed 2,212 pro-Assad forces since Feb. 27.
Esper said he spoke to NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg about the uptick in Syrian fighting during a visit to Afghanistan over the weekend as the United States looks toward a humanitarian response to the crisis. Jeffrey and US Ambassador to the UN Kelly Craft began a trip to Turkey’s border region today.
“This is where we all knew where the rubber meets the road,” a US official told Al-Monitor. “Turkey can’t afford to back down, but Russia has no interest in mediating. And add hundreds of thousands of potential refugees on top of it. My fear is that this is going to get really, really ugly.”

Found in: pentagon, no-fly zone, idlib, turkish intervention in syria, mark esper, us intervention in syria, us airstrikes
Jack Detsch is Al-Monitor’s Pentagon correspondent. Based in Washington, Detsch examines US-Middle East relations through the lens of the Defense Department. Detsch previously covered cybersecurity for Passcode, the Christian Science Monitor’s project on security and privacy in the Digital Age. Detsch also served as editorial assistant at The Diplomat Magazine and worked for NPR-affiliated stations in San Francisco. On Twitter: @JackDetsch_ALM, Email: jdetsch@al-monitor.com.
posted for fair use
www.al-monitor.com

Pentagon says US will not retaliate for Turkey in Syria

The United States will not take direct action in Syria despite a dramatic uptick in violence and calls for an immediate no-fly zone over Idlib, which would require the Pentagon to take out aircraft and airfields.
www.al-monitor.com www.al-monitor.com
 
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EndGameWW3
@EndGameWW3
1m

Terrorist fortifications in Idlib have ‘merged’ with Turkish outposts – Russian Defense Ministry — RT World News
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Terrorist bases in the Idlib province have merged with Turkish observation posts established under a 2018 deal with Moscow, Russia’s Defense Ministry said, amid a Turkish assault on the area to halt a Syrian offensive.
“The fortified areas of the terrorists have merged with the Turkish observation posts deployed under the 2018 Sochi agreement,” Russian Defense Ministry spokesman Major General Igor Konashenkoм said early on Wednesday.
Attacks and mass artillery fire on neighboring civilian settlements and the Russian airbase at Khmeimim turned from sporadic to daily.
Click to expand...
https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1235063546767003648
View: https://twitter.com/EndGameWW3/status/1235063546767003648?s=20
 
H

Housecarl

On TB every waking moment
I'm getting a feeling that the RuAF is getting ready to make the rubble bounce....a Tu-95 may not be a BUFF, but a flight of them can make an impression....
 
Zagdid

Zagdid

Veteran Member
wtvbam.com

Russia reinforces Syria before Putin-Erdogan talks - flight and shipping data

By Maria Tsvetkova and Yoruk Isik MOSCOW/ISTANBUL (Reuters) - Russia is racing to reinforce its troops in Syria by sea and air before talks between the Russian and Turkish leaders in Moscow on Thursday, flight data and shipping movements show. The two presidents, Vladimir Putin and Tayyip...
wtvbam.com wtvbam.com

Russia reinforces Syria before Putin-Erdogan talks - flight and shipping data
Wednesday, March 04, 2020 12:53 p.m. EST by Thomson Reuters : By Maria Tsvetkova and Yoruk Isik

MOSCOW/ISTANBUL (Reuters) - Russia is racing to reinforce its troops in Syria by sea and air before talks between the Russian and Turkish leaders in Moscow on Thursday, flight data and shipping movements show.

The two presidents, Vladimir Putin and Tayyip Erdogan, agreed to meet after a surge in tensions between their countries over fighting in Syria's Idlib province between Russian-backed Syrian government forces and rebels allied to Turkey.
The fighting has raised the prospect of a direct clash between their armies, which operate in close proximity on opposing sides, and Erdogan hopes the talks will yield a ceasefire in Idlib.

A Reuters analysis of flight data and correspondents' monitoring of shipping in the Bosphorus Strait in northwestern Turkey show Russia began to step up naval and airborne deliveries to Syria on Feb. 28, the day after 34 Turkish soldiers were killed in an air strike in Syria.

That incident prompted concern in Moscow that Turkey might close the Bosphorus to Russian warships and bar Russian military transport planes from using Turkish air space.

The Russian Defence Ministry did not immediately respond to a request for comment. A Turkish official, who asked not to be identified, said there was no plan to close the strait, which would force Russia to take longer routes to Syria.
But Russia appears to be reinforcing Syria at its fastest rate since October, when U.S. forces withdrew from some parts of Syria and Moscow scrambled to fill the vacuum.

Reuters' monitoring of the Bosphorus since Feb. 28 shows Russia has sent five warships toward Syria within six days. That exceeds a usual pattern of one or two warships ships per week.

The Russian military announced the departure of the Admiral Grigorovich and Admiral Makarov frigates for Syria, but three other warships have followed unannounced.

One is the Orsk, a landing ship capable of carrying 20 tanks, 50 trucks or 45 armored personnel carries and up to 400 troops. The others - the Novocherkassk and the Caesar Kunikov - are landing ships that can carry over 300 troops, tanks and armor.

Turkey has responded by beefing up its escort protocol for Russian warships using the Bosphorus. Three Turkish patrol boats and a helicopter escorted the Russian frigates - such ships are usually accompanied by a single coast guard vessel.

"SHOW OF MUSCLES"

Since Feb. 28, at least five passenger and cargo planes operated by the Russian military have also flown to Syria, including three in a single day, the flight data showed.

That followed a further 12 military planes in the previous 18 days and represents the most intense level of Russian military air activity with Syria since October.

Publicly available tracking data gives only a snapshot of Russian military flights to Syria because not all such planes can be tracked.

One person who has worked closely with Russian forces in Syria said Moscow’s reinforcement effort was meant to send Ankara a message and was "a show of muscles".

The same person said the swift build-up was an insurance policy in case the Putin-Erdogan meeting flopped and Ankara applied restrictions on the Bosphorus or in its airspace.

Turkey shows sign s of having noticed Russia is also concentrating its forces near its main air base in Syria, Hmeymim, in Latakia province.

"Russia is conducting a serious build-up near Hmeymim," said a Turkish security official, who added that Moscow had also stepped up its logistical support for the Syrian army.
"These are steps that may damage the positive atmosphere that could be found before tomorrow’s meeting," said the official though hoping for "positive results".
 
Heliobas Disciple

Heliobas Disciple

TB Fanatic
I noticed it said 666 replies and I didn't want it to stay like that for too long so I'm replying to up it to 667.

No news... just a new post.

HD
 
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passin' thru
Heliobas Disciple said:
I noticed it said 666 replies and I didn't want it to stay like that for too long so I'm replying to up it to 667.

No news... just a new post.

HD
Click to expand...
:jstr: Thank you, that escaped me altogether. I am spooked enough by the dearth of news! Last time the kids were this quiet, they'd commandeered all my best talcum powder so they could play "ghosts"...no tellin' what these kids r up to! :shkr:
 
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passin' thru
Turkey Pulse
@TurkeyPulse
3h

The main outcomes & downsides of the #Turkey #Russiasummit could be summarized in 5 points -
@Metin4020
http://almon.co/3bzo #IdlibBattle
^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^
Can Sochi 2.0 save the day in Idlib?
Metin Gurcan March 8, 2020


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Article Summary

The fragile cease-fire that took effect in Syria's rebel-held province of Idlib on March 6 under a fresh deal between Turkey and Russia might prove short-lived amid a series of uncertainties on key points of contention.

Syrian Arab News Agency
Syrian army soldiers gesture in southern Idlib province, Syria, on March 5, 2020, in this image provided by Syria's state-run news agency.



The Turkish-Russian deal to stop the dangerous escalation in Syria’s rebel bastion of Idlib is fraught with ambiguities on key issues that lie at the core of the conflict in the region. The March 5 deal — called “Sochi 2.0” by some in reference to the 2018 Sochi accord between Ankara and Moscow — might boil down to a short-lived respite before the conflict resumes with more conundrums for Turkey.
Ankara has poured some 12,000 troops into Idlib since early February to impede the advancing forces of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad, which stepped up their thrusts across Idlib in early January, backed by Russian air power. Over the past month, the Turkish military set up 12 new outposts in the region, in addition to the 12 military observation points it had established under the 2018 Sochi deal. In a dramatic escalation, 36 Turkish soldiers were killed Feb. 27 in an airstrike on a Turkish convoy, prompting fierce retributions by Turkey. In the three days from Feb. 29 to March 2, Turkey rained fire on crucial Syrian army targets, using Turkish-developed armed drones of the Anka and TB2 types, Firtina howitzers and Kasirga and Bora missiles.

President Recep Tayyip Erdogan had a phone call with his Russian counterpart Vladimir Putin on the morning of Feb. 28, as Turkey reeled from what was the deadliest attack on its forces in Syria thus far. Though the call failed to cool things on the ground, expectation mounted for an Erdogan-Putin summit to defuse the crisis. Keen to project a tough image to the Turkish public, Erdogan was eager to get Putin to come to Turkey, but the Russian leader seemed to dislike the idea and, eventually, it was Erdogan who headed to Moscow on March 5, accompanied by top-level officials.
The six-hour talks resulted in a cease-fire agreement, but the deal left a number of critical issues ambiguous. Watching what happens on the ground is now the way to gauge whether or how those issues have been resolved.
Also read



RefugeesTurkish envoy calls for more international support for Syria refugees, cease-fire dealThe first question pertains to the status of airspace. On March 6, the first day of the cease-fire, the skies were indeed quiet, suggesting that Russia would halt air bombardments in line with the truce. This would mean a letup in the ground offensives of the Syrian army and pro-Iranian militia, whose leadership, command, control and communication facilities and air defense systems have been frayed in point-target attacks by Turkish drones and rocket and missile fire.
In fact, Turkey’s moves in early March have led to a de facto bisection of Idlib’s airspace. By using armed drones, Turkey has been able to secure sporadic air supremacy, albeit a limited one at low altitudes of up to 10 kilometers (33,000 feet). Russia remains the boss in mid and high altitudes and Idlib’s airspace remains off-limits to Turkish aircraft and helicopters.
The second issue concerns the radical groups in Idlib, namely how to make them accept the terms of the deal and hand over their heavy weaponry. It remains unclear whether the radicals — terrorists, according to Russia — will abide by the cease-fire and, if they do, what their status will be down the road. Judging by the provision regarding the key M4 highway in southern Idlib, Russia appears to have given Turkey one last chance to rein in the radical factions holding sway in the region, chief among them Hayat Tahrir al-Sham. The provision calls for a security corridor 6 kilometers (nearly 4 miles) deep to the north and 6 kilometers deep to the south of M4. Could it be that the deal involves a confidential provision for Turkey and its Syrian allies to launch operations against the radicals in southern and southwestern Idlib? Developments on the ground might soon answer this question.
Turkey’s refugee problem is another key issue that the Moscow deal fails to address. After the bloody air raid on the Turkish convoy, Erdogan made good on his long-standing threats to unleash refugees on Europe, seeking to placate a domestic public already frustrated with hosting nearly 4 million Syrians and now watching its soldiers die in Syria. With Turkey’s death toll in Idlib reaching 56 since early February, Ankara is seeking to sell a success story to its public, arguing that the refugee crisis has now become everybody’s problem and that Turkey’s burden has eased. Yet Erdogan’s deal with Putin is hardly some sort of a safeguard precluding fresh refugee flows to the Turkish border or into Turkey in the coming period.

Last but not least, the fate of Turkish observation posts to the east of the M5 highway remains unclear, although Ankara seems to have abandoned claims over the road. The outposts, surrounded by Syrian government forces, are said to be in a precarious state, deprived of fresh ammunition, fuel and logistical supplies for nearly a month, according to Turkish media reports. Sources in Ankara suggest the outposts might be evacuated in a gradual fashion without stirring much public passion at home.

As for what the Moscow summit achieved, the main outcomes and their downsides could be summarized as follows:
The deal has prevented a conventional conflict between Turkey and Russia in Idlib, while placing under control — for now — the escalating conventional clashes between Turkish and Syrian forces.
A fragile cease-fire is in place. Chances are high, however, that it will be short-lived and have little relevance for the battlefield.
A security corridor along M4 means that Russia is placing itself between the Turkish and Syrian forces to de-escalate the tensions. Russia has left part of the M4 as a supply route to Turkey, which will be supervised jointly by Turkish and Russian forces. The whole security-corridor arrangement, however, might prove symbolic.
Also, Erdogan was given a gentle reminder in Moscow that he is dealing with “the Syrian Arab Republic” and not “the Assad regime.”

On the positive side, the Moscow summit shows that Russia retains its will to act as a brake on the Turkish-Syrian showdown in Idlib despite Ankara’s efforts to enlist Western support and Washington’s ostensible attempts to egg Turkey on.
Yet the prospect of the truce surviving only a couple of weeks is hard to rule out. The clashes are likely to flare up anew after a period of respite. One should also keep in mind that pro-Iranian militias have sent nearly 1,000 fighters to Idlib since late February to make up for the casualties of the Syrian army over the past month.

Found in: Russia in Syria, Syria Conflict, Defense/Security cooperation, Idlib
Metin Gurcan is a columnist for Al-Monitor's Turkey Pulse. He is a founding member of Ali Babacan's new political party, and served in Afghanistan, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan and Iraq as a Turkish military adviser from 2002 to 2008. After resigning from the military, he became an Istanbul-based independent security analyst. Gurcan obtained his PhD in 2016 with a dissertation on changes in the Turkish military over the preceding decade. He has published extensively in Turkish and foreign academic journals, and his book “What Went Wrong in Afghanistan: Understanding Counterinsurgency in Tribalized, Rural, Muslim Environments” was published in August 2016. On Twitter: @Metin4020
 
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Lindsey Snell
@LindseySnell
2h

Many Islamist Syrian militant “refugees” have already made good on this threat after arriving in Libya by using their salaries from the GNA to hire smugglers to take them to Italy.

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Abdullah Bozkurt

@abdbozkurt

#Erdogan continued his threats of sending more refugees to Europe today, declaring current policy will remain intact until #Turkey's all demands are met by the EU. He also predicted refugee flow will not limited to #Greece only, will increase & expand all over Mediterranean.
https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1237676533969534978
View: https://twitter.com/abdbozkurt/status/1237676533969534978?s=20
 
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Ranj Alaaldin
@RanjAlaaldin
·
11m

This is a huge development. There are an increasing number of reports coming in that suggest two US nationals have been killed after Iran’s proxies launched an attack on a US base in Iraq.
________________________________________________
1 British national has also reportedly been killed. These casualties will most likely compel Trump to enforce his red line and it couldn’t have come at a worst time for Iraq as it grapples with the protests and the Coronavirus - in addition to the rapid decline in oil prices.
 
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Aurora Intel
@AuroraIntel

Ermmm I think the #US just conducted a retaliation strike on the #Iraq/#Syria border. Evolving situation.



Aurora Intel
@AuroraIntel
49m

2 American’s and 1 British soldier killed in the earlier attack https://twitter.com/auroraintel/s

multiple strikes reported against Pro-#Iran PMU position(s) in Al-Heri, #Syria near the #Iraq|i border.

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At least 8 explosions were reported according to reports.

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https://twitter.com/AuroraIntel

Unconfirmed reports suggest that the aircraft involved in the airstrike came from Jordan.
 
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