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Report: North Korea’s Nuclear Weapons Stockpile Could Grow Tenfold by 2020
Research from the US-Korea Institute and NDU warns North Korea’s nuclear and missile programs are developing rapidly.
By Shannon Tiezzi
February 25, 2015
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A new research project warns that North Korea’s nuclear stockpile could grow from roughly 10-16 nuclear weapons at the end of 2014 to 100 by the year 2020. The North Korea Nuclear Futures Project, a joint collaboration between the U.S.-Korea Institute at Johns Hopkins University School of Advanced International Studies and National Defense University, aims to predict possible futures for North Korea’s nuclear and missile programs over the next five years. The major findings were announced to the press by Joel Wit of the U.S.-Korea Institute and David Albright of the Institute for Science and International Security on Tuesday.
The project provided three scenarios for the growth of North Korea’s nuclear and missile programs over the next five years. Under the “minimal growth, minimal modernization” scenario – a best care scenario for concerned observers – North Korea conducts no further nuclear or missile tests and its technology progresses slowly. Even under this scenario, North Korea is expected to roughly double its stockpile of available nuclear weapons, from 10 to 20.
In the moderate scenario, which postulates North Korea’s nuclear and missile programs continue to develop at the same pace as they have so far, Pyongyang will have 50 nuclear weapons by 2020 and will be able to mount them on both mobile intermediate-range ballistic missiles (IRBMS) and possibly even intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs). The worst-case scenario, assuming an increased commitment to the nuclear and missile programs, would involve rapid growth, including successful efforts to gain foreign technologies and information). Wit described this as a “pretty scary scenario” of “dramatic expansion” that would see North Korea armed with 100 nuclear weapons by 2020 to go along with 20-30 ICBMs.
The report also warns that North Korea already has the capability to mount miniaturized warheads on both its short-range Nodong missile (which can cover most of the Northeast Asian theater) and its Taepodong-2 missile, which has the potential to be used as an ICBM. Wit notes that, given current capabilities, North Korea could amass a nuclear arsenal of around 100 weapons and mount them on Nodong missiles able to reach South Korea and Japan by 2020 even without ever conducting another nuclear or missile test.
The analysis of both the current situation and possible future developments make it clear that the current approach to North Korea’s nuclear program has failed. Both Wit and Albright noted that North Korea can routinely access the Western technologies it needs via Chinese companies willing to smuggle them over the border. The assumption that sanctions are affecting North Korea’s ability to get nuclear technology is wrong, Wit said. Albright added that a crackdown on smuggling along the Chinese-North Korea border “could make life much harder for North Korea,” but noted that currently China simply doesn’t have mechanisms in place to enforce relevant laws.
From a geopolitical perspective, perhaps the most interesting takeaway is Wit’s point that the United States is failing in its attempt to force North Korea to choose between nuclear weapons and economic prosperity. “They’re not having to choose… they’re doing both,” Wit said. And economic sacrifices are even less of a factor now that North Korea has built up the necessary infrastructure for its nuclear and missile programs. It’s “not that expensive” for North Korea to continue along its current trajectory, Albright said.
Meanwhile, North Korea is winning the battle for acceptance as a nuclear state, as a number of regional countries (Russia, China, and the ASEAN states) seem content to conduct normal political and economic relations with North Korea despite pro forma protests over its nuclear ambitions. North Korea’s recent “charm offensive” resulted in warmer ties (to varying degrees) with Russia, ASEAN, and even Japan. North Korean leader Kim Jong-un has even been invited to join Russian President Vladimir Putin and other world leaders in Moscow for ceremonies marking the 70th anniversary of the end of World War II. With the Kim regime strengthening ties with at least some neighbors, it will only become more difficult for the U.S. and its allies to find a way to stem the growth of Pyongyang’s nuclear arsenal.
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TDog • 4 hours ago
What is interesting is that while states like Japan and Russia seem fine with this - or at least accepting - China and the US find themselves in the same boat in regards to their distaste for Pyongyang's ambitions and actions. And therein lies the problem: by allowing a myriad of other frankly more trivial issues sideline the debate over North Korea's nuclear arsenal, both China and the US have allowed a bad situation to get worse. The time to act was when North Korea first tested a device, but mutual distrust if not sheer malice prevented any meaningful action from taking place.
A nuclear-armed North Korea satisfies no one's strategic or geopolitical goals but for perhaps North Korea's. Even then one could argue that North Korea's arsenal is of limited political and economic utility as it represents more of a terrorist shakedown than a mature policy maneuver. And the problem is that the Kim dynasty is so supremely spoiled and detached from reality that so long as they have enough food to cram into their chubby faces and enough female companionship to satisfy them at night, a nuclear arsenal is an ego project and satisfying their ego, it would seem, is more of a priority than actually making sure their nation is able to feed and power itself.
Furthermore, North Korea knows it has everyone by the neck. China's seeming unwillingness to rein them in stems not from a stalwart adherence to a friendship so much as keeping a lid on a noxious band of criminals. If North Korea falls, North Koreans flood into China. The capacity for instability there is beyond their willingness or perhaps even ability to contain and Beijing above all values stability.
The tragedy is that it could have been handled years ago, but as I noted, belligerence, shortsightedness, mutual distrust, and sheer malice on the part of both the US and China prevented anything from happening. And so Kim gets to hold the entire region hostage for not other reason than he has delusions of grandeur and a propensity for acting like a spoiled, heavily-armed child.
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jetcal1 TDog • an hour ago
If I remember correctly, the Clinton administration claimed a promise had been made by the DPRK not to develop nukes. As you know, he has been out of office for a few election cycles now.
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TheSaucyMugwump • 7 hours ago
"The assumption that sanctions are affecting North Korea's ability to get nuclear technology is wrong"
Absolutely true, yet there are a few right-wingers, e.g. Joshua Stanton, who claim that sanctions will bring the DPRK to its knees. As long as China refuses to cooperate, sanctions on North Korea will have limited effect. The only way to enforce sanctions on the DPRK would be to enforce them against China at the same time, but the world's capitalists would quickly slap their bought-and-paid-for politicians into submission.
"the United States is failing in its attempt to force North Korea to choose between nuclear weapons and economic prosperity"
The Kim-groupies in Pyongyang are living very well, but people outside the capital are living in poverty. Not to mention the people in the labor camps being used as slaves in mines and other ventures.
I can only see three choices for the West, given China's refusal to rein in the DPRK:
1) acceptance of the DPRK as a nuclear power, working with them to add inspectors to prevent WWIII,
2) installation of a ring of missile defense around the DPRK, but it had better be invulnerable, and a ring is impossible by definition given that the DPRK borders both China and Russia, or
3) a massive air strike against the DPRK which would have immense implications around the world, as well as enormous casualties in the ROK, Japan, and perhaps other places.
Given that #2 is technically impossible today and #3 is unthinkable, the world may have no choice but to invite Kim Jong-un to some NBA games.
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pug_ster TheSaucyMugwump • 6 hours ago
Or 4) Not try to overthrow the country, establish a peace treaty with North Korea and try to normalize relations like what they did to Cuba.
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MingDynasty TheSaucyMugwump • 4 hours ago
I believe Mr. Putin's invite to the redoubtable Un was intended to be a diplomatic hand gesture to the Leader of the Free World if not to Messieurs Rogen and Franco. As dour as he may appear, I believe that Vladimir the Terrible has a somewhat dry sense of humor.
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Elvis • 7 hours ago
Interesting, so assuming the North Koreans have successfully miniaturized their nukes then its too late. Time to end the sanctions & accept them into the ranks of the nuclear powers. If we want to maintain the fig leaf of doing something, keep the American sanctions but let the rest of the world carry on. What I want to know is if the North Koreans have shared the tech to miniaturize nukes with the Iranians as they have been partners for a while in regards to R&D in missiles & nukes.
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Posted for fair use.....
http://thediplomat.com/2015/02/repo...weapons-stockpile-could-grow-tenfold-by-2020/
Report: North Korea’s Nuclear Weapons Stockpile Could Grow Tenfold by 2020
Research from the US-Korea Institute and NDU warns North Korea’s nuclear and missile programs are developing rapidly.
By Shannon Tiezzi
February 25, 2015
0 Shares
6 Comments
A new research project warns that North Korea’s nuclear stockpile could grow from roughly 10-16 nuclear weapons at the end of 2014 to 100 by the year 2020. The North Korea Nuclear Futures Project, a joint collaboration between the U.S.-Korea Institute at Johns Hopkins University School of Advanced International Studies and National Defense University, aims to predict possible futures for North Korea’s nuclear and missile programs over the next five years. The major findings were announced to the press by Joel Wit of the U.S.-Korea Institute and David Albright of the Institute for Science and International Security on Tuesday.
The project provided three scenarios for the growth of North Korea’s nuclear and missile programs over the next five years. Under the “minimal growth, minimal modernization” scenario – a best care scenario for concerned observers – North Korea conducts no further nuclear or missile tests and its technology progresses slowly. Even under this scenario, North Korea is expected to roughly double its stockpile of available nuclear weapons, from 10 to 20.
In the moderate scenario, which postulates North Korea’s nuclear and missile programs continue to develop at the same pace as they have so far, Pyongyang will have 50 nuclear weapons by 2020 and will be able to mount them on both mobile intermediate-range ballistic missiles (IRBMS) and possibly even intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs). The worst-case scenario, assuming an increased commitment to the nuclear and missile programs, would involve rapid growth, including successful efforts to gain foreign technologies and information). Wit described this as a “pretty scary scenario” of “dramatic expansion” that would see North Korea armed with 100 nuclear weapons by 2020 to go along with 20-30 ICBMs.
The report also warns that North Korea already has the capability to mount miniaturized warheads on both its short-range Nodong missile (which can cover most of the Northeast Asian theater) and its Taepodong-2 missile, which has the potential to be used as an ICBM. Wit notes that, given current capabilities, North Korea could amass a nuclear arsenal of around 100 weapons and mount them on Nodong missiles able to reach South Korea and Japan by 2020 even without ever conducting another nuclear or missile test.
The analysis of both the current situation and possible future developments make it clear that the current approach to North Korea’s nuclear program has failed. Both Wit and Albright noted that North Korea can routinely access the Western technologies it needs via Chinese companies willing to smuggle them over the border. The assumption that sanctions are affecting North Korea’s ability to get nuclear technology is wrong, Wit said. Albright added that a crackdown on smuggling along the Chinese-North Korea border “could make life much harder for North Korea,” but noted that currently China simply doesn’t have mechanisms in place to enforce relevant laws.
From a geopolitical perspective, perhaps the most interesting takeaway is Wit’s point that the United States is failing in its attempt to force North Korea to choose between nuclear weapons and economic prosperity. “They’re not having to choose… they’re doing both,” Wit said. And economic sacrifices are even less of a factor now that North Korea has built up the necessary infrastructure for its nuclear and missile programs. It’s “not that expensive” for North Korea to continue along its current trajectory, Albright said.
Meanwhile, North Korea is winning the battle for acceptance as a nuclear state, as a number of regional countries (Russia, China, and the ASEAN states) seem content to conduct normal political and economic relations with North Korea despite pro forma protests over its nuclear ambitions. North Korea’s recent “charm offensive” resulted in warmer ties (to varying degrees) with Russia, ASEAN, and even Japan. North Korean leader Kim Jong-un has even been invited to join Russian President Vladimir Putin and other world leaders in Moscow for ceremonies marking the 70th anniversary of the end of World War II. With the Kim regime strengthening ties with at least some neighbors, it will only become more difficult for the U.S. and its allies to find a way to stem the growth of Pyongyang’s nuclear arsenal.
6 comments
The Diplomat
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Join the discussion…
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TDog • 4 hours ago
What is interesting is that while states like Japan and Russia seem fine with this - or at least accepting - China and the US find themselves in the same boat in regards to their distaste for Pyongyang's ambitions and actions. And therein lies the problem: by allowing a myriad of other frankly more trivial issues sideline the debate over North Korea's nuclear arsenal, both China and the US have allowed a bad situation to get worse. The time to act was when North Korea first tested a device, but mutual distrust if not sheer malice prevented any meaningful action from taking place.
A nuclear-armed North Korea satisfies no one's strategic or geopolitical goals but for perhaps North Korea's. Even then one could argue that North Korea's arsenal is of limited political and economic utility as it represents more of a terrorist shakedown than a mature policy maneuver. And the problem is that the Kim dynasty is so supremely spoiled and detached from reality that so long as they have enough food to cram into their chubby faces and enough female companionship to satisfy them at night, a nuclear arsenal is an ego project and satisfying their ego, it would seem, is more of a priority than actually making sure their nation is able to feed and power itself.
Furthermore, North Korea knows it has everyone by the neck. China's seeming unwillingness to rein them in stems not from a stalwart adherence to a friendship so much as keeping a lid on a noxious band of criminals. If North Korea falls, North Koreans flood into China. The capacity for instability there is beyond their willingness or perhaps even ability to contain and Beijing above all values stability.
The tragedy is that it could have been handled years ago, but as I noted, belligerence, shortsightedness, mutual distrust, and sheer malice on the part of both the US and China prevented anything from happening. And so Kim gets to hold the entire region hostage for not other reason than he has delusions of grandeur and a propensity for acting like a spoiled, heavily-armed child.
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jetcal1 TDog • an hour ago
If I remember correctly, the Clinton administration claimed a promise had been made by the DPRK not to develop nukes. As you know, he has been out of office for a few election cycles now.
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TheSaucyMugwump • 7 hours ago
"The assumption that sanctions are affecting North Korea's ability to get nuclear technology is wrong"
Absolutely true, yet there are a few right-wingers, e.g. Joshua Stanton, who claim that sanctions will bring the DPRK to its knees. As long as China refuses to cooperate, sanctions on North Korea will have limited effect. The only way to enforce sanctions on the DPRK would be to enforce them against China at the same time, but the world's capitalists would quickly slap their bought-and-paid-for politicians into submission.
"the United States is failing in its attempt to force North Korea to choose between nuclear weapons and economic prosperity"
The Kim-groupies in Pyongyang are living very well, but people outside the capital are living in poverty. Not to mention the people in the labor camps being used as slaves in mines and other ventures.
I can only see three choices for the West, given China's refusal to rein in the DPRK:
1) acceptance of the DPRK as a nuclear power, working with them to add inspectors to prevent WWIII,
2) installation of a ring of missile defense around the DPRK, but it had better be invulnerable, and a ring is impossible by definition given that the DPRK borders both China and Russia, or
3) a massive air strike against the DPRK which would have immense implications around the world, as well as enormous casualties in the ROK, Japan, and perhaps other places.
Given that #2 is technically impossible today and #3 is unthinkable, the world may have no choice but to invite Kim Jong-un to some NBA games.
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pug_ster TheSaucyMugwump • 6 hours ago
Or 4) Not try to overthrow the country, establish a peace treaty with North Korea and try to normalize relations like what they did to Cuba.
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MingDynasty TheSaucyMugwump • 4 hours ago
I believe Mr. Putin's invite to the redoubtable Un was intended to be a diplomatic hand gesture to the Leader of the Free World if not to Messieurs Rogen and Franco. As dour as he may appear, I believe that Vladimir the Terrible has a somewhat dry sense of humor.
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Elvis • 7 hours ago
Interesting, so assuming the North Koreans have successfully miniaturized their nukes then its too late. Time to end the sanctions & accept them into the ranks of the nuclear powers. If we want to maintain the fig leaf of doing something, keep the American sanctions but let the rest of the world carry on. What I want to know is if the North Koreans have shared the tech to miniaturize nukes with the Iranians as they have been partners for a while in regards to R&D in missiles & nukes.
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