WEATHER Severe Weather Thread the week of January 1st 2024!!!

packyderms_wife

packyderms_wife

Neither here nor there.
Happy New Year y'all!!!


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mzkitty

mzkitty

I give up.
I got a notice on my phone from Spectrum today, advising that some people may be out of service for a while due to this incoming storm. It doesn't look like Roch will get hit bad, but you know where you are and how bad it might be where you are, so notice was given. Blech.
 
marsh

marsh

On TB every waking moment

Millions Brace For Northeast's Biggest Snowstorm In Years | ZeroHedge

ZeroHedge - On a long enough timeline, the survival rate for everyone drops to zero
www.zerohedge.com www.zerohedge.com

Millions Brace For Northeast's Biggest Snowstorm In Years​

FRIDAY, JAN 05, 2024 - 04:20 PM

Millions of Americans from the Carolinas to Maine are under winter weather alerts ahead of what could be the biggest snowstorm to hit the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast in at least a year.



The storm is developing on Friday along the Gulf Coast. According to computer forecast models, major cities along the Northeast's I-95 corridor will likely escape the brunt of the snowstorm (not what snow lovers want to hear). However, regions in the Interior Northeast could see upwards of 12 inches of snow.

The system will traverse the Southeast and into the mid-Atlantic Friday into Saturday. Snow, sleet, and rain are expected across the Atlantic region on Saturday, quickly changing to rain from DC to Baltimore to Philadelphia to New York City. Some metro areas along the I-95 might record an inch of snow.

The good news is that a multi-year snow drought could end across some of the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast metro areas.

Areas north and west of the DC to Baltimore to Philadelphia to NYC could record 4 to 8 inches of snow, with isolated amounts over a foot.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1743296310717960220
View: https://twitter.com/HenryMargusity/status/1743296310717960220?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1743296310717960220%7Ctwgr%5E6f783a0adad2f44f28a562d891e3589150edab53%7Ctwcon%5Es1_&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.zerohedge.com%2Fweather%2Fmillions-brace-northeasts-biggest-snowstorm-years


Rob Carolan, owner of Hometown Forecast Services, told Bloomberg that rain is expected to start in New York City late Saturday, with the storm strengthening overnight. He said northern New Jersey, the Hudson Valley, and parts of Connecticut might see 2 to 6 inches of snow, adding Upstate New York and interior New England could see upwards of 10 inches.



Carolan said, "It is the best snowfall we have seen in over a year in many of these locations."

We noted on Monday, "First Time In Nearly 2 Years": Snow Drought In Major US Northeast Cities May End Soon, and published a note this morning about an incoming cold blast for the Lower 48 later this month.
Is there another storm forecasted for next week?

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1743304986119876970
View: https://twitter.com/tropicalupdate/status/1743304986119876970?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1743304986119876970%7Ctwgr%5E6f783a0adad2f44f28a562d891e3589150edab53%7Ctwcon%5Es1_&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.zerohedge.com%2Fweather%2Fmillions-brace-northeasts-biggest-snowstorm-years


Thank you, El Nino.
 
P

Publius

TB Fanatic
So they keep updating the forecast for everyone in the path of the east coast snow storm.
Right now they have us for 5" to 8" inches and it may have a mix of ice/frozen rain with it and this is suppose to happen later on Saturday and into the night.
 
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Plain Jane

Just Plain Jane
paweatheraction.com

Final Call Snowfall Forecast for Saturday’s Significant Snowstorm in Pennsylvania

Our long-awaited snowstorm is nearly here, and in the last 24 hours since our second call, there have been some changes to increase expected snowfall in much of Central and Western PA. As usual, the most complicated, high stakes area is where rain and sleet will mix in, which is across South...
paweatheraction.com paweatheraction.com

​

FINAL CALL SNOWFALL FORECAST FOR SATURDAY’S SIGNIFICANT SNOWSTORM IN PENNSYLVANIA​



Jan52024
StatewideWinter Weather
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Our long-awaited snowstorm is nearly here, and in the last 24 hours since our second call, there have been some changes to increase expected snowfall in much of Central and Western PA. As usual, the most complicated, high stakes area is where rain and sleet will mix in, which is across South Central and Southeast PA. There will almost certainly be a few surprises in those areas, in the form of a bit more or less snow than anticipated. Both areas where 6-8″ and 8-12″ are expected have dramatically increased in size, which you will see below. Timing has also moved up a fair amount, so please view the latest time tables below.

STORM IMPACT TIME TABLES​





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FINAL CALL SNOWFALL FORECAST FOR SATURDAY’S SIGNIFICANT SNOWSTORM​


Area A: Snowfall accumulation of 8 – 12″ expected. All snow expected, with rates often above 1″ per hour. Do not travel during storm.
Area B: Snowfall accumulation of 6 – 8″ expected. All snow expected, with rates often above 1″ per hour. Do not travel during storm.
Area C: Snowfall accumulation of 4 – 6″ expected. Southern areas near I-81 and I-78 will begin as snow, followed by a brief wintry mix before ending as snow. Snowfall rates at onset above 1″ per hour, no not travel during that period.
Area D: Snowfall accumulation of 2 – 4″ expected. Southern areas will begin as snow before changing to a long period of wintry mix and rain. Snowfall rates above 1″ per hour at onset, limit travel during that period.
Area E: Snowfall accumulation of 1 – 2″ expected. Southern areas will briefly begin as snow before changing to rain.
Don’t forget to share this forecast with family and friends below!
 
packyderms_wife

packyderms_wife

Neither here nor there.
View: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SIPlaTXY20Y

RT 9:58 - Max Velocity

In this weather forecast, we are breaking down the threat of multiple WINTER STORMS in January. These will impact areas like the Midwest, Central Plains, Northeast, and Mid-Atlantic. This weather pattern is a part of El Nino, which will lead to more active weather in the Southern Tier of the USA, while the Northern Tier will be quite inactive. This will lead to some snow events, showers and storms, and perhaps severe weather. Find the latest details of the weather across the United States in our latest weather forecast.
 
Red Baron

Red Baron

Paleo-Conservative
_______________
Current area of concern,

Mesoscale Discussion 6

1704572988673.png

Mesoscale Discussion 0006
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1047 AM CST Sat Jan 06 2024

Areas affected...Central/Southern PA...Eastern WV
Panhandle...Western/Central MD...Far Northern VA

Concerning...Heavy snow

Valid 061647Z - 062145Z

SUMMARY...Snowfall rates are expected to increase across the region
over the next several hours. Rates around 1"/hr are likely across
much of the area, with localized 2"/hr rate possible, particularly
across south-central PA.

DISCUSSION...Recent satellite imagery shows a low-amplitude
shortwave trough over eastern TN, moving quickly northeastward.
Regional radar imagery shows a large area of precipitation across
the Mid-Atlantic and into southern portions of the Northeast, within
the warm conveyor preceding this shortwave. Attendant low-level flow
is forecast to strengthen over the next several hours as the
shortwave continues northeastward. Additionally, the attendant
surface low, which is currently over south-central NC, is expected
to deepen over the next few hours as it moves northeastward across
central NC and southeast VA.

These factors will result in an area of strong low-level
frontogenesis over VA, with associated lift focused into
central/southern PA, the eastern WV Panhandle, western/central MD,
and far northern VA. Most of this area is currently experiencing
moderate snow, but snowfall rates are expected to increase over the
next few hours as the evolution described above occurs. Rates around
1"/hr are likely across much of the area, with some areas
experiencing 2"/hr, particularly south-central PA where banding
appears most likely. Highest rates are expected to be centered
around 20Z, with rates then likely diminishing over this area as the
shortwave continues northeastward.

..Mosier.. 01/06/2024

Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 6

Severe weather, tornado, thunderstorm, fire weather, storm report, tornado watch, severe thunderstorm watch, mesoscale discussion, convective outlook products from the Storm Prediction Center.
www.spc.noaa.gov
 
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Publius

TB Fanatic
Yep we just went from 3" to 4" inches of snow and the snow is slacking off and going back to sleet and frozen rain.
Anyone north of West Virginia this is coming your way. Just a short while ago it was snowing so hard that visibility was about 150 to 125 yards.
 
Blacknarwhal

Blacknarwhal

Let's Go Brandon!
Weather Channel's call for SW lower MI is looking light. Tuesday morning starts with snow, segues to a rain / snow mix, goes pure rain with an inch of snow accumulating. Which will be vaporized if there's any rain involved. Then it pitches BACK to a rain / snow mix going into evening, which becomes all snow again that night. Accumulations so far look minimal. But it looks like this is the end of unseasonable warmth as highs drop back into the 20s and teens again starting next Friday. And it looks like they stay there for at least the next two weeks. Given that, by then, it's almost February, we should be seeing something of a warmup not to far after that.
 
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Publius

TB Fanatic
Looks like it may be over we are now getting a drizzle of rain and the temperature is 30F.
This was a very wet snow along with getting sleet and frozen rain and rain mix the top part of the snow is freezing to a hard crust. I do not expect any local power outages from this storm, but that is still posable.
 
packyderms_wife

packyderms_wife

Neither here nor there.
Blacknarwhal said:
Given that, by then, it's almost February, we should be seeing something of a warmup not to far after that.
Click to expand...

That volcanic eruption, Tonga, that happened last winter, IIRC it was in February, really messed up the upper atmosphere with all of the sea water and ash it ejected into the upper atmosphere, and this is why El Nino is so bad this year. I'm expecting more extreme drought for fly over country, and lots of flooding most probably on the east coast this coming spring.
 
Blacknarwhal

Blacknarwhal

Let's Go Brandon!
packyderms_wife said:
That volcanic eruption, Tonga, that happened last winter, IIRC it was in February, really messed up the upper atmosphere with all of the sea water and ash it ejected into the upper atmosphere, and this is why El Nino is so bad this year. I'm expecting more extreme drought for fly over country, and lots of flooding most probably on the east coast this coming spring.
Click to expand...

Honestly, it's hard to complain. I know we're WAY down water wise, but this time of year that's not so bad. Beats shoveling, snowblowing, and plowing.
 
Meemur

Meemur

Voice on the Prairie / FJB!
Blacknarwhal said:
Honestly, it's hard to complain. I know we're WAY down water wise, but this time of year that's not so bad. Beats shoveling, snowblowing, and plowing.
Click to expand...

Agreed! And I'm not complaining. I didn't gain any "holiday weight" because I watched my splurges and kept up with my walking. I will live with 10 - 12 weeks of winter, which is what we have at this point.
 
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