Kathy, I like your sig ;-)
Do I believe the fiction of weather forecasts? Only within limits.
In December 2017 you probably saw the national weather map with the bands of winter weather across the southeast US. We were under those bands and the area TV forecasts said "1/2 to 1 inch of snow on grassy surfaces" (parroting the National Weather Service). A TV meteorologist in Atlanta noted that one of the weather models predicted 8 inches and he laughed. At the same time, the Weather Channel's online hourly forecast for our area had snow coming down for hours, with wind chills at or below freezing. Which would you believe?
I went with the Weather Channel and got out the bits needed during a power outage.
1. LED light with magnetic base to stick to side of the over-the-stove microwave oven and have light to cook by - check.
2. Grill lighter to light the burners of the gas cooktop - check.
3. Is the battery bank for the solar generator fully charged? Check.
4. 12 gauge extension cord to connect the solar generator's inverter to the generator transfer switch - check.
5. Gasoline for the gasoline generators if power is out more than 8 hours - check.
Late Friday evening, we had 3" of snow. I wasn't concerned as we've had that much before and the most fragile trees in the 2+ miles between us and the electric co-op's substation came down previously. However, the Weather Channel's hourly forecast still had snow until daylight.
At 7:30 Saturday morning, we had 7" of snow. Other areas in the county had up to 12". Power was out in many areas but we were good until the cable TV, phone and internet went out at 8AM. Our power went out about 20 minutes later. I waited 30 minutes then powered up the solar generator and flipped the transfer switches for the fridge and some kitchen counter lights and outlets (need to charge the phones, the tablets and the laptop). The gas logs in the fireplace are totally battery operated - even the gas valve - so they became the primary source of heat and we closed off unused spaces. We notified family and friends that we were only reachable via cell phone then my wife read while I wrote then we fixed lunch and then we read and wrote some more.
With the overnight low predicted to be well below freezing, around 6PM I got out a small gas generator to run the central heat long enough to warm the entire house which took care of warming the basement and all the pipes. While the generator ran, it was also cooling the freezer and recharging the battery bank in anticipation of using it overnight (remember that we had snow and clouds - no sun for the solar panels to do any charging that day). An hour or so after I put the generator back in the shed, commercial power was restored. Phone, internet and cable TV were out almost another day.
No emergency trip to get bread and milk. Or to get gas for the generator. Neither vehicle left the garage until the roads were mostly clear. Yes, I have chains for the truck. No, I didn't put them on. While I could travel in the snow if needed, I require a lot of convincing about what's a "need" ;-)
Do I believe the weather forecasts? Some of them.