The low solar activity we're experiencing FULLY explains why these cold outbreaks are becoming more common -- Grand Solar Minimum.
electroverse.net
A Brutal Winter 2019-20 Finale could be in store for Europe and N. America as a potentially “Major” Sudden Stratospheric Warming (SSW) Event Develops
January 27, 2020 Cap Allon
Signs are emerging that a dramatic reduction in westerly Zonal winds over the North Pole could be in store by mid-February. If this scenario –otherwise known as Sudden Stratospheric Warming (SSW)– plays out, it could mean Arctic conditions invading North America & Europe in the next 30-40 days.
Looking at the
North Pole’s 10hPa temperature chart first, we can see it’s been anomalously cold over the Polar Region for much of this Winter season, with things really taking a turn for the frigid during the first half of November, and then again in early December:
http://ds.data.jma.go.jp/tcc/tcc/products/clisys/STRAT/
Comparing these temps with the
North Pole’s 10hPa Zonal wind strength chart below, we notice that many of those cooling “dips” coincide with a strengthening of the westerly Zonal winds
(after allowing for the standard 2-or-so-week delay):
http://weatheriscool.com/prod/interactiveTserie.html
Basically, temperatures over the North Pole
drop as the Zonal winds in the stratosphere
strengthen (and vice-versa). This
strengthening of the Zonal winds occurs when the jet streams are
tight — tight flowing jets effectively keep the cold air “locked-up” in the Arctic–the westerly Polar Night Jet (PNJ) isn’t disturbed. Whereas,
loose flowing jet streams can disrupt the PNJ, often resulting in a complete reversal of its flow, which, after a brief lag, will see frigid Arctic air displaced and “carried” southwards into the lower-latitudes:
During times of reduced solar activity, this weak & wavy
meridional flow occurs more frequently. The pattern is also more pronounced, meaning Arctic cold descends much further south than usual.
The
historically low solar activity we’re currently experiencing FULLY explains why these cold outbreaks are becoming more common. Furthermore, it is THIS forcing, along with increased cloud-cover due to increasing Cosmic Rays, that are thought to be the key IMMEDIATE players in the onset of Ice Ages (Little or otherwise).
Looking again at the
North Pole’s 10hPa Zonal wind strength chart below, the colored lines (turquoise & pinks) represent the four individual GFS runs taking us through to the end of May — ALL FOUR runs are predicting a reduction in the Zonal winds, with one showing a total reversal (major SSW):
http://weatheriscool.com/prod/interactiveTserie.html
This SSW event could begin as early as the first week of February, although any impacts would take a further 2-or-so weeks to manifest, as the reversal of the high altitude PNJ winds need time to progress down through the stratosphere and into the troposphere–the lowest layer of Earth’s atmosphere.
Easterly winds nearer the surface often result in dramatic reductions in temperature across Europe and North America.
So, even if this SSW plays out as expected –and that’s still a big “if” at this stage– its impacts
on the ground still won’t be known until late Feb/ early March — it is possible, however, that the event could deliver a brutal sting in the tail to the Winter of 2019/20.
Stay tuned for updates.
http://weatheriscool.com/prod/interactiveTserie.html
