BRKG ***CONFIRMED... Iran's Qassem Soleimani killed in US airstrike*** (i.e. BUCKLE UP!) - Iran counterattacks

Housecarl

On TB every waking moment
so, Iranians were killed. Exactly what I said!
folks need to distinguish between "rocket" and "Ballistic/Cruise Missiles".
The significance is "rockets" are usually local launched by Iraqi Militias (Iranian backed or not) - launching a counter attack at the territorial sovereignty of Iran because of these would be problematic - I doubt the Administration will.
Another salvo of Ballistic or Cruise Missiles from the sovereign territory of Iran into the sovereign territory of Iraq is no less problematic, even with American casualties "because of the recent Iraqi vote for our departure.
An attack against Oman, Kuwait, Saudi Arabia, or one of our Naval vessels could cause the kind of reprisal everyone expects
Trump has shown that he is going to be lawful - which is not always the easy thing.

And I seriously doubt Iran is going to do anything
a)until a great explanation is provided for the airliner
b) as long as Pelosi is trying to limit Trumps war powers - and I think they now know that just because something passes in the house does not make it a done deal.

That "vote" by the rump of the Iraqi parliament has about as much authority as Pelosi's calls to change the rules for impeachement in the Senate, the Sunnis and Kurds walked out on the Shia who called for and voted on that "measure".
 

Dystonic

Senior Member
New here, but I’ve speculated on Iran and the US clashing for years. Be easy as I’m new here. I think the whole war on terror has been about Iran since 2003. Invading Iraq seemed pointless.
I stepped back and tried to see the big picture and I saw Iran. We were in Afghanistan, lukewarm with Pakistan, had overflight permission with Turkmenistan, and controlled the gulf probably with a boomer. That put us to the north, east, and south of Iran.
So to implement a full on squeeze play, we invade Iraq. And in the following years, cracks in Iranian leadership were developing. Until Dronie McPeacePrize and his pallets of cash. Which I think has Trump in this dire predicament. Trump is the man to right this ship if it can be done.
 

jward

passin' thru
hmmm dare we hope that there's hope...? Nah. j

Elizabeth Tsurkov
@Elizrael

·
3h

Partisanship has hijacked everything. Leftists promised us WW3 after the assassination, but It failed to materialize, so now they're latching onto this, blaming Trump for Iran shooting down a plane. As a liberal, I find this embarrassing.
 

jward

passin' thru
Welcome, Dystonic. Please feel to jump right in. Sorry there's no shallow end, I tend to hog that, but you're certainly welcome to enjoy the rest of the facilities.
 

AlfaMan

Has No Life - Lives on TB
New here, but I’ve speculated on Iran and the US clashing for years. Be easy as I’m new here. I think the whole war on terror has been about Iran since 2003. Invading Iraq seemed pointless.
I stepped back and tried to see the big picture and I saw Iran. We were in Afghanistan, lukewarm with Pakistan, had overflight permission with Turkmenistan, and controlled the gulf probably with a boomer. That put us to the north, east, and south of Iran.
So to implement a full on squeeze play, we invade Iraq. And in the following years, cracks in Iranian leadership were developing. Until Dronie McPeacePrize and his pallets of cash. Which I think has Trump in this dire predicament. Trump is the man to right this ship if it can be done.

We probably have at least one boomer in the area of the Gulf, I have heard we have at least one attack sub inside the gulf loaded with a full loadout of tomahawk cruise missiles. Iran probably needs to attack again to keep their population in check and supporting the ruling clerics.
Another Iranian attack will take place, probably by Sunday of this week. Then watch the can of whoop a^^ pres trump will lay on them. I still think he will hit a major religious/cultural site in Iran as retaliation. Qom gets my vote for Iranian cultural site most likely to be pounded into concrete dust and tattered bloodstained mullah robes.
 

AlfaMan

Has No Life - Lives on TB
How's DC today, Alfa?

On a quiet,subtle war footing,actually. Bases are still at Charlie, dc leaders are worrying about sniper attacks on. Gov folks in DC per local news. Which means FBI and atf snipers are probably on top of every gov agency building in the district court Doing 27/7 watches. Thinking patriot battery at navy yard may be up and running, SAM site at the base near us is. Look in the BS under the bird watching thread for more details....
Oh, could I have a caffeine free coke zero on ice please? Loving your snack bar!
 

AlfaMan

Has No Life - Lives on TB
Also. Internet just started taking a nosedive speed wise. We're on FIOS and it just got sloooooooowwww. I'm on my BlackBerry and it's slow. A dollar says something may be up.
 

Millwright

Knuckle Dragger
_______________
Caught a coupla snips today from different Oklahoma congresstypes.

They mentioned that our oil & gas companies are possible targets, then said all energy companies.

The timing & how it was framed just struck me as odd.

It was implied that they were talking about domestic facilities....or that's how I took it.
 

AlfaMan

Has No Life - Lives on TB
Caught a coupla snips today from different Oklahoma congresstypes.

They mentioned that our oil & gas companies are possible targets, then said all energy companies.

The timing & how it was framed just struck me as odd.

It was implied that they were talking about domestic facilities....or that's how I took it.

Iranian gunboats dropped in the Houston ship channel from an anonymous RORO (roll on,roll off ship-the kind that brings cars here from other countries) ship could make a mess of things. Iran used human wave attacks in the iran Iraq war, suicide navy crews wouldn't be too much of a stretch for them.
 

Housecarl

On TB every waking moment
As i see it, if we get a second round of this going by whatever mechanism, I'm guessing POTUS is likely issue orders to go after the IRGC's strategic forces, then their internal security apparatus as well as very likely Khamenei himself, in large part because Suleimani directly reported to him and thus was under his direct command, making him fully responsible for Suleimani's activities. After that, I'd guess any WMD infrastructure would be next with Iran's integrated air defense systems (IADS) by necessity being neutralized first.

Just with the 6 B-52s reportedly stationed at Diego Garcia, you're talking about a minimum of 240 individual aim points within Iran (assuming 500 Lb class JDAMs and two per aim point and 80 per BUFF, and that's not even looking at everything else available).
 

Millwright

Knuckle Dragger
_______________
Doesn't Iran have a boatload of ADA?

Much of it is probably old and of limited range, but still a consideration.
 

jward

passin' thru
Thanks, Alfa! Nice to be appreciated, and I appreciate the picture you shared of conditions in DC :: Passin' out the drinks & snacks, lingering and peeking over shoulders as I go :::

Internets wonky again here, too fyi, but not as bad.
 
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Housecarl

On TB every waking moment
Doesn't Iran have a boatload of ADA?

Much of it is probably old and of limited range, but still a consideration.

Yup. Kill the SAM and radar sites and what's left of the Iranian Air force and BUFF can orbit at 20 K all day making deliveries....At that point the ADA of concern are the Iranian versions of the KS-19 100 mm air defense gun....
 

jward

passin' thru
JDAM
The Joint Direct Attack Munition is a guidance kit that converts unguided bombs, or "dumb bombs", into all-weather precision-guided munitions. Wikipedia
Maximum firing range: Up to 15 nautical miles (28 km)
Guidance system: Inertial guidance/GPS
Unit cost: About US$25,000 (Depends on acquisition lot. Foreign sales have considerably higher prices.)
Accuracy: Specified 13 meters; Realized around 7 meters
Length: 9.9–12.75 feet (3.02–3.89 m)
In service: 1997–present
Wingspan: 19.6 to 25 inches (500 to 640 mm)
 

jward

passin' thru
A surface-to-air missile (SAM), or ground-to-air missile (GTAM /ˈdʒiːtæm/), is a missile designed to be launched from the ground to destroy aircraft or other missiles. It is one type of antiaircraft system; in modern armed forces, missiles have replaced most other forms of dedicated antiaircraft weapons, with anti-aircraft guns pushed into specialized roles. Examples for ground and naval air missiles are the Raytheon Standard Missile 2, Raytheon Standard Missile 6 at Arleigh Burke-class destroyer of the United States Navy, or the MBDA Aster Missile at ships of the british Royal Navy like the Type 45 destroyer and ships of the French Navy like the Horizon-class frigate.
 

Millwright

Knuckle Dragger
_______________
This might light off some :hof:

Border Patrol Circulates Intel Alert Titled ‘Suspected Suicide Bomber en Route to the U.S.’


 

Squid

Veteran Member
I think the conflict has moved in 2 new directions.

Away from Iran
Towards everywhere

Nothing to win for Iran direct conflict with US. US would retaliate with force and the winners would be Turkey, House if Saud, and to a lesser extent Assad. Secondary winners Russia and China.

Iran be despotic but they have been very clever power players pushing the envelope but doing most of their damage with 3rd part proxies. Iran, Turkey and Saudi Arabia are fighting to be top dog as muslims use sheer numbers to overwhelm the west from outside and inside in 10-15 years. It’s demographics and the only outside force with the numbers to compete is very East.

The battles will shift IMHO to terrorism here in the US if possible and at Israel. They would like to leave Europe and Scandinavian countries alone while they continue to add as many new muslims as possible before there is increased backlash and restrictions as western society’s revolt against their Globalist leaders drive to societal self destruction.

The proxies and many terror groups do not have centralized control so there are likely too many threats to keep track and an even harder way to determine who to blame.

Remember if things do happen most if not all ‘news’ reports are bullstuff and are entirely media outlet agenda driven not facts and information driven.

Our best ally from long term common interests is really Russia but the Demo’s poisoned that well to take down Trump.

Keep safe and keep alert the country needs more lerts.
 

marsh

On TB every waking moment

JANUARY 9TH, 2020Iran Sent Messages Through ‘Three Back Channels’ To U.S. After Attack To Say They Were Done
By James Barrett
DailyWire.com
US President Donald Trump speaks about the situation with Iran in the Grand Foyer of the White House in Washington, DC, January 8, 2020. - President Donald Trump said Wednesday Iran appeared to be standing down after missile strikes on US troop bases in Iraq that resulted in no American or Iraqi deaths.All of our soldiers are safe and only minimal damage was sustained at our military bases. Our great American forces are prepared for anything, he said in an address to the nation from the White House. (Photo by Eric BARADAT / AFP) (Photo by ERIC BARADAT/AFP via Getty Images)
ERIC BARADAT/AFP via Getty Images

Details have begun to emerge about Iran’s ballistic missile attack on two Iraqi bases Tuesday, including what was reportedly going on behind the scenes almost immediately after the strikes. According to CNN’s sources, soon after the strikes were over, Iran reached out to the U.S. “through at least three back channels” to make clear that their “fierce revenge” for the killing of Iran’s top military leader was over.

“Iran initiated contact through at least three back channels starting late Tuesday, including through Switzerland and other countries,” CNN reports. “There were ‘multiple messages and they were all the same,’ a person familiar with the matter said. Iran wanted to convey their retaliatory action had ended — and was waiting to see how the US would respond.”

“The back-and-forth communication came as American officials were still determining the extent of the Iranian attacks, and were formulating plans for a response,” the network explains. “In response, the US sought to communicate to Iran that its proxies in the region were of equal concern as the activities of the Iranian state, the person familiar said.”

The Swiss Ministry of Foreign Affairs confirmed in a statement that its diplomatic channel has been used multiple times prior to the incident Tuesday to exchange messages between the U.S. and Iran and urged “maximum restraint” from both sides.

“Switzerland is deeply concerned about the heavy tensions between the U.S. and Iran and the latest cycle of violent confrontations in Iraq,” the Swiss Ministry of Foreign Affairs said in a statement reported by CNN. “We call on all sides to exercise maximum restraint and to avoid any further escalation. Switzerland stands ready to support initiatives of the international community that seek de-escalation in the region.”

Along with reportedly communicating through back channels that it sought to de-escalate, Iran’s foreign minister issued a public statement Tuesday night indicating that the strikes would be the only military actions the regime undertook for the killing of General Qassem Soleimani, head of Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps-Quds Force, a U.S.-designated terrorist organization.

“Iran took & concluded proportionate measures in self-defense under Article 51 of UN Charter targeting base from which cowardly armed attack against our citizens & senior officials were launched,” Iranian Foreign Minister Javad Zarif tweeted after the attack Tuesday night. “We do not seek escalation or war, but will defend ourselves against any aggression.”

As CNN notes, some Trump administration officials increasingly believe that Iran deliberately missed areas populated by U.S. personnel.

Trump revealed in his televised statement Wednesday that “no Americans were harmed in last night’s attack by the Iranian regime.”

“We suffered no casualties, all of our soldiers are safe, and only minimal damage was sustained at our military bases,” said the president, adding later, “No American or Iraqi lives were lost because of the precautions taken, the dispersal of forces, and an early warning system that worked very well.”
Trump also announced that Iran appeared to be “standing down,” which he described as “a good thing for all parties concerned, and a very good thing for the world.”

In the address, the president announced new economic sanctions on Iran that would be imposed “immediately.” He also made clear that the status quo from Iran in the region was unacceptable.
“For far too long, all the way back to 1979, to be exact, nations have tolerated Iran’s destructive and destabilizing behavior in the Middle East. Those days are over,” Trump asserted. “Iran has been the leading state sponsor of terrorism, and their pursuit of nuclear weapons threatens the civilized world. We will never let that happen.”
 

Housecarl

On TB every waking moment
I think the conflict has moved in 2 new directions.

Away from Iran
Towards everywhere

Nothing to win for Iran direct conflict with US. US would retaliate with force and the winners would be Turkey, House if Saud, and to a lesser extent Assad. Secondary winners Russia and China.

Iran be despotic but they have been very clever power players pushing the envelope but doing most of their damage with 3rd part proxies. Iran, Turkey and Saudi Arabia are fighting to be top dog as muslims use sheer numbers to overwhelm the west from outside and inside in 10-15 years. It’s demographics and the only outside force with the numbers to compete is very East.

The battles will shift IMHO to terrorism here in the US if possible and at Israel. They would like to leave Europe and Scandinavian countries alone while they continue to add as many new muslims as possible before there is increased backlash and restrictions as western society’s revolt against their Globalist leaders drive to societal self destruction.

The proxies and many terror groups do not have centralized control so there are likely too many threats to keep track and an even harder way to determine who to blame.

Remember if things do happen most if not all ‘news’ reports are bullstuff and are entirely media outlet agenda driven not facts and information driven.

Our best ally from long term common interests is really Russia but the Demo’s poisoned that well to take down Trump.

Keep safe and keep alert the country needs more lerts.

Possible, but I don't think POTUS is going to let "plausible deniability" be the shield it has been in the past for such actions via proxy....
 

Ragnarok

On and On, South of Heaven
Since 4 of the 15 missiles they fired failed, they definitely have quality control issues but I have read they have very accurate guidance systems, something like 3 meters of where they aim.

3-21 meters... 3 being a shot where everything aligns in their favor ( which never happens ). IMHO, I would put them at the high end of the accuracy range... Which is still pretty danged good
 

Ragnarok

On and On, South of Heaven
On news Iran is saying they didn't shoot down plan. So the answer is, they did it. They're using "it wasn't me" defense.

Of course, they did it. And, the proof is their refusal to turn over the black box and now, since the pressure is being turned up... Oh, look... They are damaged...


 

Ragnarok

On and On, South of Heaven
Attack on Saudi Oil Refineries Proves the Devastating Potential of Iranian Cruise Missiles
By
Tamir Eshel
-
Sep 14, 2019


Still can't believe Saudi Arabia let that slide...
 

Ragnarok

On and On, South of Heaven
The Iranian govt better put these militias in check before they drag the Iranian govt into a battle it can’t win and doesn’t want.

But, it DOES want it...

I will refer you here:

 

dberszerker

Veteran Member
Possible, but I don't think POTUS is going to let "plausible deniability" be the shield it has been in the past for such actions via proxy....


This is the game changer, and there only appears to be a pause in the action at the moment. I don't think this whole situation will stay in the box for much longer. Took me a bit to catch up on this thread, had to read it in small segments. Great information gathered here on many angles of view. Dang things have been strangely quiet here lately.....
 
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