CORONA Main Coronavirus thread

David Nettleton

Veteran Member
The important issue isn't whether this corona virus is that deadly. The issue becomes important when it drastically affects the health care systems due to surge. There has always been a delicate balance between the number of sick patients and the number of health care workers/beds/meds/equipment to treat. Any disturbance in the force that can prevent truly sick people with other illnesses from obtaining the healthcare they need due to overcrowding, lack of meds, ventilators, and health care workers to treat due to a rapidly spreading virus such as SARS, MERS, or whatever this thing is finally referred to as is really the main factor that one needs to be concerned about.
Remember the Africa ebola plane lift over here brought to us by Obama years back? Nebraska got two of them I believe. I remember reading an article that the entire US had, at that time, a total of six beds able to handle that emergency.
 

summerthyme

Administrator
_______________
leads one to believe that the virus was built to target Asians. Perhaps as a solution to China's problem with sick and old and their healthcare crisis. What a boon it would be for China to reduce the population by 500 million of the weakest members of their society.
Would explain why no one is worried about "risk to NYC residents".

Disposable income would soar. They could them teach everyone to "code"
Or, DeBlasio is talking out his ass, as usual.

Summerthyme
 

TheSearcher

Are you sure about that?
I'm still coughing, not coughing up a lung like I was but I wonder....

would suck to have a double whammy, the regular flu is still going around, I haven't gotten that yet.

Pretty sure I had just a typical cold as it started with sinus then worked into lungs, this time it hit my lungs pretty good.
If I was hit with this new "kung flu" while fighting off a regular flu or head cold it could be a deadly double whammy 1-2 combo.
I have also wondered if maybe the Kung Flu already hit here, but for many it was just a drag. I can tell you that I've been generally coughing and congested for going on 4 weeks, and at the height of it, very, very tired. What if some of Anglo types got it, and that's as far as it goes under that genetic heritage?
 

TheSearcher

Are you sure about that?
Probably not "cure" but more like they survived the infection.

Technically, that often is a cure, with the host's immune system having gained the tools to fight the particular contagion in play. The cure occurred at least partly due to the palliative care available during the illness.
 

bw

Fringe Ranger
Would explain why no one is worried about "risk to NYC residents".

Well, it's the mayor of NY, so the people he wants to reassure are NY residents. He's not about to issue a statement reassuring citizens of Geneva.
 

GammaRat

Veteran Member
CDC mortality rate of influenza for 2018-2019 season
FastStats

Estimated Illnesses: 35,520,883
Deaths: 34,157
Mortality Rate: 00.0096%

In less than a month the "officially recognized statistics" of the Coronavirus..

Estimated Coronavirus Illnesses: 830
Deaths: 25
Mortality Rate: 3%

For an 11million person city, that's 330,000 deaths... (twice as large as the city I live in)
For the population of the US (330mil.), that's 9.9 million deaths.

The real issues are the easy of transmission, and the incubation period. Someone can say "There's only 830 confirmed cases, nothing to worry about"... I think that person is going to be surprised at the exponential expansion of this virus. I can't help but be surprised at how quickly it has spread across the globe.
 

KFhunter

Veteran Member
I haven't yet seen enough evidence (that I believe) to think this virus has a genetic or racial bias or component to it.

but I'm a long ways from a virologist, so I don't see how it could be possible for a virus to jump from a bat or snake and only attack Asians...
 

Capt. Eddie

Veteran Member
Remember the Africa ebola plane lift over here brought to us by Obama years back? Nebraska got two of them I believe. I remember reading an article that the entire US had, at that time, a total of six beds able to handle that emergency.
Omaha only got one IIRC, but they UNMC have a ten bed capacity
 

TheSearcher

Are you sure about that?
I haven't yet seen enough evidence (that I believe) to think this virus has a genetic or racial bias or component to it.

but I'm a long ways from a virologist, so I don't see how it could be possible for a virus to jump from a bat or snake and only attack Asians...
There's always the possibility that it didn't jump from animals to humans...
 

Kathy in FL

Administrator
_______________
This doesn't even cover what the impact would be on issues such as burial services, hospitals being overwhelmed, etc.

Even if the mortality rate remains at 3% - and that is no given if it gets into any at-risk populations in this country - we simply do not have the infrastructure to address it and maintain current "extraordinary measures" types of medical services.


CDC mortality rate of influenza for 2018-2019 season
FastStats

Estimated Illnesses: 35,520,883
Deaths: 34,157
Mortality Rate: 00.0096%

In less than a month the "officially recognized statistics" of the Coronavirus..

Estimated Coronavirus Illnesses: 830
Deaths: 25
Mortality Rate: 3%

For an 11million person city, that's 330,000 deaths... (twice as large as the city I live in)
For the population of the US (330mil.), that's 9.9 million deaths.

The real issues are the easy of transmission, and the incubation period. Someone can say "There's only 830 confirmed cases, nothing to worry about"... I think that person is going to be surprised at the exponential expansion of this virus. I can't help but be surprised at how quickly it has spread across the globe.
 

Pinecone

Has No Life - Lives on TB

2nd U.S. Case Of Wuhan Coronavirus Confirmed

  • January 24, 202011:07 AM ET


    A Chicago woman in her 60s is the second U.S. citizen to become infected with the dangerous new coronavirus, health officials said.
    Tami Chappell/Reuter

  • Updated at 12:22 p.m. ET
    A second person in the United States has been infected with a dangerous new coronavirus that is spreading in China, U.S. health officials announced Friday.
    A woman in her 60s got infected with the virus while traveling in the Wuhan, China, area in late December and became ill after returning home to Chicago Jan. 13, according to officials from the federal Centers for Disease Control and Prevention and the Illinois and Chicago health departments.
  • The woman is in stable condition but is still hospitalized, primarily to prevent her from spreading the virus to other people, officials said.
    Officials are working to identify anyone the woman had contact with since returning home and monitoring them for any symptoms, they said. But the woman had limited contact with other people since returning home, did not take any public transportation or attend any large gatherings. So the risk to the public is low, officials said.

    "We understand that some people are worried about this virus and how it may impact Americans," Dr. Nancy Messonnier, director of the CDC's National Center for Immunization and Respiratory Diseases, told reporters during a telephone briefing. "While this situation poses a very serious public health threat, CDC believes that the immediate risk to the U.S. public is low at this time."

  • But, Messonnier added: "The situation continues to evolve rapidly." And, she said, there are many unanswered questions about the new virus, including how easily it spreads and how often it causes serious illness.

  • At least 50 other possible cases in 22 states have been identified among travelers returning from China and are currently under investigation, according to the CDC. Eleven other possible cases have tested negative for the virus, officials said.
    The CDC said is has mobilized an aggressive response to the outbreak aimed at identifying and diagnosing any cases early and preventing the spread of the virus in this country.
    "Our goal is always to protect the health of Americans," Messonnier said. "We at CDC have our best people working on this problem."


    The virus first emerged in China, where it has begun to spread rapidly. China is reporting a total 830 cases of infections and at least 25 deaths to date. In response, Chinese authorities imposed a number of dramatic measures this week to control the outbreak, including banning travel out of cities most affected.

  • The first U.S. case was reported earlier this week after a man returned to Washington state from a trip to the Wuhan area and became ill. He, too, remains hospitalized in stable condition. Health official in Washington are also identifying and monitoring anyone he had contact with since his return but so far have not identified anyone else who the man infected.

  • The Chicago woman did not have any symptoms while traveling, but contacted her doctor after returning home and becoming ill.

  • "The doctor appropriately asked about travel history, quickly put a mask on the patient, helping limit the potential risk of spreading infection," Dr. Allison Arwady, commissioner of the Chicago Department of Public Health, told reporters at the briefing. "Her doctor then referred her directly to a hospital with infection control capabilities for further workup."

  • The hospital sent a sample from the patient to the CDC, which confirmed she was infected with the new virus.
    "I'm pleased to report she is clinically doing well," Arwady said, adding she was not sick on the plane and has had "very limited movement outside her home" since returning.
    "And based on what we know now about this virus, our concern for transmission before symptoms develop is low. So that is reassuring," she said.

  • The CDC is continuing to screen travelers returning from the Wuhan area of China for any signs of infection and handing out cards asking people to monitor themselves for possible symptoms, such as fever, coughing and difficulty breathing.
  • But officials acknowledged that some people who have become infected may not have symptoms since there can be a 14-day incubation period.

  • "We have an aggressive response with the goal of identifying potential cases early," Messonnier said. "We want to make sure these patients get the best and most appropriate care."

  • But the outbreak is "a rapidly changing situation both abroad and domestically. We're still learning. Let's remember, this virus was only identified within the past month and there is much we don't know yet."

  • So Messonnier cautioned that officials expected to identify more cases in the U.S. as well as among "close contacts of travelers." The virus could also spread further, she said.
    The CDC was working to distribute tests for the virus to every state to help identify cases as quickly as possible, she added.

  • The agency is recommending against travel to affected areas, and that travelers take common sense steps to protect themselves from infection and from spreading the virus, such as frequent hand washing.

  • "We have support across the entirety of the federal government and we have one of the strongest public health systems in the world," Messonnier said. "Again, while there are many unknowns, CDC believes that the immediate risk to the American public continues to be low at this time."


 

packyderms_wife

Neither here nor there.


CHICAGO (WAND) - The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention announced a case of the new coronavirus in Illinois on Friday.

The patient is in Chicago. The 60-year-old woman traveled to Wuhan, China in December and came back to Illinois on Jan. 13. She had no symptoms when she returned home.

The first case of the coronavirus is a man in his 30s in Washington state.

NBC reports health officials in the U.S. are taking extreme steps to stop the spread of the illness. They are screening passengers who arrive in at U.S. airports from China.

Health officials say they are keeping a close eye on the 43 people in Washington the man had contact with. So far, none have shown symptoms and they have not been quarantined, but they are being advised to watch for symptoms.

So far, cases of the coronavirus have been limited to China. At least 800 cases have been reported and 26 people have died.
 

Housecarl

On TB every waking moment

2nd U.S. Case Of Wuhan Coronavirus Confirmed

  • January 24, 202011:07 AM ET


    A Chicago woman in her 60s is the second U.S. citizen to become infected with the dangerous new coronavirus, health officials said.
    Tami Chappell/Reuter

  • Updated at 12:22 p.m. ET
    A second person in the United States has been infected with a dangerous new coronavirus that is spreading in China, U.S. health officials announced Friday.
    A woman in her 60s got infected with the virus while traveling in the Wuhan, China, area in late December and became ill after returning home to Chicago Jan. 13, according to officials from the federal Centers for Disease Control and Prevention and the Illinois and Chicago health departments.
  • The woman is in stable condition but is still hospitalized, primarily to prevent her from spreading the virus to other people, officials said.
    Officials are working to identify anyone the woman had contact with since returning home and monitoring them for any symptoms, they said. But the woman had limited contact with other people since returning home, did not take any public transportation or attend any large gatherings. So the risk to the public is low, officials said.

    "We understand that some people are worried about this virus and how it may impact Americans," Dr. Nancy Messonnier, director of the CDC's National Center for Immunization and Respiratory Diseases, told reporters during a telephone briefing. "While this situation poses a very serious public health threat, CDC believes that the immediate risk to the U.S. public is low at this time."

  • But, Messonnier added: "The situation continues to evolve rapidly." And, she said, there are many unanswered questions about the new virus, including how easily it spreads and how often it causes serious illness.

  • At least 50 other possible cases in 22 states have been identified among travelers returning from China and are currently under investigation, according to the CDC. Eleven other possible cases have tested negative for the virus, officials said.
    The CDC said is has mobilized an aggressive response to the outbreak aimed at identifying and diagnosing any cases early and preventing the spread of the virus in this country.
    "Our goal is always to protect the health of Americans," Messonnier said. "We at CDC have our best people working on this problem."


    The virus first emerged in China, where it has begun to spread rapidly. China is reporting a total 830 cases of infections and at least 25 deaths to date. In response, Chinese authorities imposed a number of dramatic measures this week to control the outbreak, including banning travel out of cities most affected.

  • The first U.S. case was reported earlier this week after a man returned to Washington state from a trip to the Wuhan area and became ill. He, too, remains hospitalized in stable condition. Health official in Washington are also identifying and monitoring anyone he had contact with since his return but so far have not identified anyone else who the man infected.

  • The Chicago woman did not have any symptoms while traveling, but contacted her doctor after returning home and becoming ill.

  • "The doctor appropriately asked about travel history, quickly put a mask on the patient, helping limit the potential risk of spreading infection," Dr. Allison Arwady, commissioner of the Chicago Department of Public Health, told reporters at the briefing. "Her doctor then referred her directly to a hospital with infection control capabilities for further workup."

  • The hospital sent a sample from the patient to the CDC, which confirmed she was infected with the new virus.
    "I'm pleased to report she is clinically doing well," Arwady said, adding she was not sick on the plane and has had "very limited movement outside her home" since returning.
    "And based on what we know now about this virus, our concern for transmission before symptoms develop is low. So that is reassuring," she said.

  • The CDC is continuing to screen travelers returning from the Wuhan area of China for any signs of infection and handing out cards asking people to monitor themselves for possible symptoms, such as fever, coughing and difficulty breathing.
  • But officials acknowledged that some people who have become infected may not have symptoms since there can be a 14-day incubation period.

  • "We have an aggressive response with the goal of identifying potential cases early," Messonnier said. "We want to make sure these patients get the best and most appropriate care."

  • But the outbreak is "a rapidly changing situation both abroad and domestically. We're still learning. Let's remember, this virus was only identified within the past month and there is much we don't know yet."

  • So Messonnier cautioned that officials expected to identify more cases in the U.S. as well as among "close contacts of travelers." The virus could also spread further, she said.
    The CDC was working to distribute tests for the virus to every state to help identify cases as quickly as possible, she added.

  • The agency is recommending against travel to affected areas, and that travelers take common sense steps to protect themselves from infection and from spreading the virus, such as frequent hand washing.

  • "We have support across the entirety of the federal government and we have one of the strongest public health systems in the world," Messonnier said. "Again, while there are many unknowns, CDC believes that the immediate risk to the American public continues to be low at this time."


MERDE!!!.....
 

vestige

Deceased
I haven't yet seen enough evidence (that I believe) to think this virus has a genetic or racial bias or component to it.

but I'm a long ways from a virologist, so I don't see how it could be possible for a virus to jump from a bat or snake and only attack Asians...
Me either.

I think the snake/bat thing is just coincidental cultural/geographical.

If fatalities start showing up in other countries (races) it is probably just another illness originating in the orient and will impact all exposed with mortality rates based on health of the individuals, age and healthcare available.
 

EMICT

Veteran Member
The main cause of Flu death is respiratory failure. The main cause of SARs death is respiratory failure. The main cause of MERs death is respiratory failure. There are only so many vents available in the US. The math is quite easy to calculate once the numbers become available, and we already know part of the equation. There are approximately 7200 hospitals and 62,188 ventilators in the US for an average of 8 vents per hospital.
 
Last edited:

20Gauge

TB Fanatic
This doesn't even cover what the impact would be on issues such as burial services, hospitals being overwhelmed, etc.

Even if the mortality rate remains at 3% - and that is no given if it gets into any at-risk populations in this country - we simply do not have the infrastructure to address it and maintain current "extraordinary measures" types of medical services.

This was my concern earlier. How many are being infected and then hospitalized. What number or percentage of the population is needed to shut the nation down? Or any nation for that matter?
 

Hfcomms

EN66iq
Posted January 24th, 2020 at 10:06 AM (CST) by Bill Holter & filed under Jim's Mailbox.
Bill,

I just received a call from a close American friend of mine who just got off the phone with a Chinese friend, who has relatives in Wuhan. He says there may already be ~10,000 dead there from the virus. He was quite graphic about dreadful conditions in the city. He opined that the government was not coming clean on real facts. Imagine that?

It is far worse Bill than people imagine: My friend reiterated that Wuhan, more than other places in China, has a local population which consumes rats, bats, snakes, etc. , just like I told him.

His Wuhan relative recounted incidents of people walking down street and dropping dead. I see why the government has quarantined the place, which means nobody (especially the press) gets out or into the city.

This is really scary stuff. I imagine that China was, and is covering up what they thought was contained and now is not and I doubt they understand the scope of global fallout that they have unleashed.
Cheers,
Robert

Thanks Robert, truly sad on several levels.
Best,
Bill

 

Housecarl

On TB every waking moment
Posted January 24th, 2020 at 10:06 AM (CST) by Bill Holter & filed under Jim's Mailbox.
Bill,

I just received a call from a close American friend of mine who just got off the phone with a Chinese friend, who has relatives in Wuhan. He says there may already be ~10,000 dead there from the virus. He was quite graphic about dreadful conditions in the city. He opined that the government was not coming clean on real facts. Imagine that?

It is far worse Bill than people imagine: My friend reiterated that Wuhan, more than other places in China, has a local population which consumes rats, bats, snakes, etc. , just like I told him.

His Wuhan relative recounted incidents of people walking down street and dropping dead. I see why the government has quarantined the place, which means nobody (especially the press) gets out or into the city.

This is really scary stuff. I imagine that China was, and is covering up what they thought was contained and now is not and I doubt they understand the scope of global fallout that they have unleashed.
Cheers,
Robert

Thanks Robert, truly sad on several levels.
Best,
Bill


MERDE!!!....I hate it looks like the consensus here turns out to be correct. Considering all the evidence I would believe this Daisy chain of contacts before the gang in Beijing.
 

Bubble Head

Has No Life - Lives on TB
How does one proactively "cure" this virus, I wonder?

Take Elderberry Syrup. Like double the dose. It will not cure a virus but it dulls the virus ability to replicate and gives your body a chance to build an immunity.

I have to agree that the reactions and pro action in China far out weights what is being officially fed to the sheep. I know nothing of this virus but I know bull shit and we are receiving a massive dose from China right now. I am sure our government is aware of the situation via our intelligence agencies but I can assure you we are not. Case in point NY saying no problem, nothing to worry about and less than an hour later several cases in NY City.
Prayer works really well in this type of situation.
 

northern watch

TB Fanatic
Dag Svanæs‏ @dagsvanaes 3h3 hours ago

Replying to @]JonRead15 and 6 others
To sum up: It is out of control in China. Only 5% get really ill. 3% of those die. 1.5 in 1000 infected die. If 10% of the population in China get infected, we will see 150.000 deaths over the next months. Hard to contain. Similar numbers for the rest of the world later.
 

northern watch

TB Fanatic
Eunice Yoon‏Verified account @onlyyoontv 1m1 minute ago

Eunice Yoon Retweeted Eunice Yoon

China restricts 16 cities pop. 46mln! Wuhan: 11mln Huanggang: 7.5mln Xiangyang: 6.1mln Yichang: 4.2mln Jingmen: 3mln Xianning: 2.8mln Huangshi: 2.5mln Suizhou: 2.2mln Xiantao: 1.6mln Ezhou: 1mln Qianjiang: 962k Enshi: 780k Xiaogan: 780k Zhijiang: 550k Dangyang: 560k Chibi: 530k
 

naegling62

Veteran Member
I am not yet convinced of that, but I definitely am leaning that way.
I think the response identifies the source. If it were natural they would not know how it would react in it's environment, therefore a much more conservative response. This response their doing makes it look like Hal Turner and WhatDoesitMean are in control. So the response indicates a foregone conclusion, they know how it will react in it's environment.
 

20Gauge

TB Fanatic
Posted January 24th, 2020 at 10:06 AM (CST) by Bill Holter & filed under Jim's Mailbox.
Bill,

I just received a call from a close American friend of mine who just got off the phone with a Chinese friend, who has relatives in Wuhan. He says there may already be ~10,000 dead there from the virus. He was quite graphic about dreadful conditions in the city. He opined that the government was not coming clean on real facts. Imagine that?

It is far worse Bill than people imagine: My friend reiterated that Wuhan, more than other places in China, has a local population which consumes rats, bats, snakes, etc. , just like I told him.

His Wuhan relative recounted incidents of people walking down street and dropping dead. I see why the government has quarantined the place, which means nobody (especially the press) gets out or into the city.

This is really scary stuff. I imagine that China was, and is covering up what they thought was contained and now is not and I doubt they understand the scope of global fallout that they have unleashed.
Cheers,
Robert

Thanks Robert, truly sad on several levels.
Best,
Bill


I would actually believe these numbers more so than the official numbers.
 

momengineer

Senior Member


HEALTH
New coronavirus can cause infections with no symptoms and sicken otherwise healthy people, studies show
By ANDREW JOSEPH @DrewQJoseph
JANUARY 24, 2020
Coronavirus Pneumonia Outbreaks In China
A man wears a mask on the subway in Wuhan, China.GETTY IMAGES
Two papers published Friday in the journal the Lancet offer some of the first rigorous analyses of patients who contracted a novel coronavirus that has broken out in China and spread to other countries. Among their discoveries: The virus does not only affect people with other, underlying health conditions, and people who are not showing symptoms can still be carrying the virus.
In one study, researchers analyzed data from the first 41 patients who were admitted to hospitals with confirmed cases of the infection in the central Chinese city of Wuhan, where the outbreak is believed to have originated last month. Two-thirds had been to a large seafood market that also sold wild animals for meat and is thought to be where the virus jumped from an animal source to people. The median age of the patients was 49.
The patients displayed a wide range of symptoms, many of which were similar to those caused by SARS, another coronavirus, which caused a global outbreak in 2002-2003 that started in China. All of them had pneumonia, and most had fever and cough. Some people had fatigue; rarer symptoms included headache and diarrhea. The researchers noted that patients with SARS more frequently had runny noses, sore throats, and diarrhea than those with the novel coronavirus, which is provisionally being called 2019-nCoV.
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One key finding: It’s not only people with other health conditions that are getting sick, the researchers reported. Some of the fatal cases caused by the virus have been among people with underlying diseases like diabetes, liver disease, and hypertension, but the majority of the first 41 patients infected with the disease in Wuhan were healthy. The researchers noted that SARS infections similarly did not only affect people with other conditions.
Related:
The basics: What we know — and don’t know — about the virus spreading in China and beyond
About a third of the 41 patients needed intensive care, and six of them died. Some of the patients with more serious illnesses suffered from a dangerous immune system overreaction called a cytokine storm, but the researchers said they still did not have a good understanding of how the virus affects the immune system.
As of Friday, there were more than 830 cases of the coronavirus infection in China, with 25 deaths, and a handful of cases in places — including Thailand, Japan, South Korea, and the United States — that were in people who traveled to those countries from China.
The second paper focused on one family who came down with pneumonia in Shenzhen. Five family members had recently traveled to Wuhan and had the virus, as did one relative who had not traveled to Wuhan.
So far, authorities have only confirmed human-to-human transmission of the virusamong families and in health care clinics — settings where people are likely to be in close contact with each other, according to the World Health Organization. This appears to be the case with the family that was studied. Still, health officials do not know exactly how efficiently the virus can pass among people.
One child with the virus did not show any symptoms. Health authorities have said that people with the virus have shown a range of symptoms, from very mild to very severe. But an asymptomatic infection raises the question of whether people have to be showing signs of the disease to pass it to people, a question that experts are rushing to answer.
“Because asymptomatic infection appears possible, controlling the epidemic will also rely on isolating patients, tracing and quarantining contacts as early as possible, educating the public on both food and personal hygiene, and ensuring health care workers comply with infection control,” Dr. Kwok-Yung Yuen from the University of Hong Kong-Shenzhen Hospital, who led the research, said in a statement.
Related:
Precautions are in place. Now U.S. hospitals and states ready for more cases of novel virus from China
In a commentary piece also published Friday by the Lancet, Dr. David Heymann, an infectious disease epidemiologist at the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, wrote that “the picture these two manuscripts paint is of a disease with a 3-6 day incubation period and insidious onset.”
The researchers who wrote the two papers and other experts cautioned that these were small studies with limited numbers of patients in a rapidly evolving outbreak. But they noted that sharing information like this as quickly and rigorously as possible can help shape the response.
“The information in these articles are pieces of the jigsaw puzzle that are being fit together by WHO as it continues to collect official reports and informal information from its virtual groups of national clinicians, epidemiologists, and virologists working at outbreak sites and brought together from around the world,” Heymann wrote. “When pieced together, these emerging data will permit regular refinement of the risk assessment, and real-time guidance to countries for patient management and outbreak control, including the best case definition for use in surveillance around outbreak sites and elsewhere.”
 

20Gauge

TB Fanatic
MERDE!!!....I hate it looks like the consensus here turns out to be correct. Considering all the evidence I would believe this Daisy chain of contacts before the gang in Beijing.

From a logical point of view it does make sense. Why shut down several cities for a mere 300 dead. The Chinese don't care that much about human life to react that harshly and that fast for just 300 dead.
 
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