CORONA Main Coronavirus thread

20Gauge

TB Fanatic
Dag Svanæs‏ @dagsvanaes 3h3 hours ago

Replying to @]JonRead15 and 6 others
To sum up: It is out of control in China. Only 5% get really ill. 3% of those die. 1.5 in 1000 infected die. If 10% of the population in China get infected, we will see 150.000 deaths over the next months. Hard to contain. Similar numbers for the rest of the world later.

So we could expect 50,000 possible deaths in the USA based upon the population differences?
 

momengineer

Senior Member


HEALTH
New coronavirus can cause infections with no symptoms and sicken otherwise healthy people, studies show
By ANDREW JOSEPH @DrewQJoseph
JANUARY 24, 2020
Coronavirus Pneumonia Outbreaks In China
A man wears a mask on the subway in Wuhan, China.GETTY IMAGES
Two papers published Friday in the journal the Lancet offer some of the first rigorous analyses of patients who contracted a novel coronavirus that has broken out in China and spread to other countries. Among their discoveries: The virus does not only affect people with other, underlying health conditions, and people who are not showing symptoms can still be carrying the virus.
In one study, researchers analyzed data from the first 41 patients who were admitted to hospitals with confirmed cases of the infection in the central Chinese city of Wuhan, where the outbreak is believed to have originated last month. Two-thirds had been to a large seafood market that also sold wild animals for meat and is thought to be where the virus jumped from an animal source to people. The median age of the patients was 49.
The patients displayed a wide range of symptoms, many of which were similar to those caused by SARS, another coronavirus, which caused a global outbreak in 2002-2003 that started in China. All of them had pneumonia, and most had fever and cough. Some people had fatigue; rarer symptoms included headache and diarrhea. The researchers noted that patients with SARS more frequently had runny noses, sore throats, and diarrhea than those with the novel coronavirus, which is provisionally being called 2019-nCoV.
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One key finding: It’s not only people with other health conditions that are getting sick, the researchers reported. Some of the fatal cases caused by the virus have been among people with underlying diseases like diabetes, liver disease, and hypertension, but the majority of the first 41 patients infected with the disease in Wuhan were healthy. The researchers noted that SARS infections similarly did not only affect people with other conditions.
Related:
The basics: What we know — and don’t know — about the virus spreading in China and beyond
About a third of the 41 patients needed intensive care, and six of them died. Some of the patients with more serious illnesses suffered from a dangerous immune system overreaction called a cytokine storm, but the researchers said they still did not have a good understanding of how the virus affects the immune system.
As of Friday, there were more than 830 cases of the coronavirus infection in China, with 25 deaths, and a handful of cases in places — including Thailand, Japan, South Korea, and the United States — that were in people who traveled to those countries from China.
The second paper focused on one family who came down with pneumonia in Shenzhen. Five family members had recently traveled to Wuhan and had the virus, as did one relative who had not traveled to Wuhan.
So far, authorities have only confirmed human-to-human transmission of the virusamong families and in health care clinics — settings where people are likely to be in close contact with each other, according to the World Health Organization. This appears to be the case with the family that was studied. Still, health officials do not know exactly how efficiently the virus can pass among people.
One child with the virus did not show any symptoms. Health authorities have said that people with the virus have shown a range of symptoms, from very mild to very severe. But an asymptomatic infection raises the question of whether people have to be showing signs of the disease to pass it to people, a question that experts are rushing to answer.
“Because asymptomatic infection appears possible, controlling the epidemic will also rely on isolating patients, tracing and quarantining contacts as early as possible, educating the public on both food and personal hygiene, and ensuring health care workers comply with infection control,” Dr. Kwok-Yung Yuen from the University of Hong Kong-Shenzhen Hospital, who led the research, said in a statement.
Related:
Precautions are in place. Now U.S. hospitals and states ready for more cases of novel virus from China
In a commentary piece also published Friday by the Lancet, Dr. David Heymann, an infectious disease epidemiologist at the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, wrote that “the picture these two manuscripts paint is of a disease with a 3-6 day incubation period and insidious onset.”
The researchers who wrote the two papers and other experts cautioned that these were small studies with limited numbers of patients in a rapidly evolving outbreak. But they noted that sharing information like this as quickly and rigorously as possible can help shape the response.
“The information in these articles are pieces of the jigsaw puzzle that are being fit together by WHO as it continues to collect official reports and informal information from its virtual groups of national clinicians, epidemiologists, and virologists working at outbreak sites and brought together from around the world,” Heymann wrote. “When pieced together, these emerging data will permit regular refinement of the risk assessment, and real-time guidance to countries for patient management and outbreak control, including the best case definition for use in surveillance around outbreak sites and elsewhere.”



Things that concern me in this article. Asymptotic spread. And cytokine storm.

that and the Chinese have quarantined 10? Cities now..??? Isincerely hope I’mwrong but this does not bode well
 

TheSearcher

Are you sure about that?
I think the response identifies the source. If it were natural they would not know how it would react in it's environment, therefore a much more conservative response. This response their doing makes it look like Hal Turner and WhatDoesitMean are in control. So the response indicates a foregone conclusion, they know how it will react in it's environment.
That argument is difficult to refute, IMHO.
 

raven

TB Fanatic
Eunice Yoon‏Verified account @onlyyoontv 1m1 minute ago

Eunice Yoon Retweeted Eunice Yoon

China restricts 16 cities pop. 46mln! Wuhan: 11mln Huanggang: 7.5mln Xiangyang: 6.1mln Yichang: 4.2mln Jingmen: 3mln Xianning: 2.8mln Huangshi: 2.5mln Suizhou: 2.2mln Xiantao: 1.6mln Ezhou: 1mln Qianjiang: 962k Enshi: 780k Xiaogan: 780k Zhijiang: 550k Dangyang: 560k Chibi: 530k
yea. umm . . . take out your calculator and add up those numbers . . .
Dude . . . that is almost 100 million people who are restricted
that is almost 1/3 the population of the US

Virus first reported Dec 30.
In less than a month 100 million people are restricted/quarantined?
Wow does not express reality
 

20Gauge

TB Fanatic

Hfcomms

EN66iq
The Chinese don't care that much about human life to react that harshly and that fast for just 300 dead.

Doesn't have as much to do with that as it does with the function of government. If this really takes hold here our government initially will go into the same denial and everything is in control argument. They can't afford to panic the population but it would be an effort in futility here. Everyone and their mother carries a cell phone with camera and with a functioning Internet it would in short order be impossible to cover this up if it's bad. From the government's standpoint the worse thing to admit is that you have lost control of the situation which leads to a general panic. China might pull it off easier but even with all their controls the word is still getting out.
 

Mostly Trouble

Contributing Member
A friend of mine married a lady from China and now lives stateside. She follows the Chinese media closely and she's saying that they are now stating that the virus is biological warfare. It was planted by the US and is genetically designed to affect only Chinese people. This is gonna get even more interesting I'm afraid...
MT
 

NCGirl

Veteran Member
Hubby just sent text and said he has come down with a cold today. No big deal I suppose. The guy that just came back from Wuhan is prancing around the office fine as can be... And I'm sure it's just a cold. But makes me nervous nonetheless. They are having their annual CNY office party tonight. I'm not going. Wish the recent traveler to Wuhan would work from home for the next week. :(
 

SouthernBreeze

Has No Life - Lives on TB
A friend of mine married a lady from China and now lives stateside. She follows the Chinese media closely and she's saying that they are now stating that the virus is biological warfare. It was planted by the US and is genetically designed to affect only Chinese people. This is gonna get even more interesting I'm afraid...
MT

WTH?
 

TheSearcher

Are you sure about that?
A friend of mine married a lady from China and now lives stateside. She follows the Chinese media closely and she's saying that they are now stating that the virus is biological warfare. It was planted by the US and is genetically designed to affect only Chinese people. This is gonna get even more interesting I'm afraid...
MT

(Un)holy shit.
 

naegling62

Veteran Member
Doesn't have as much to do with that as it does with the function of government. If this really takes hold here our government initially will go into the same denial and everything is in control argument. They can't afford to panic the population but it would be an effort in futility here. Everyone and their mother carries a cell phone with camera and with a functioning Internet it would in short order be impossible to cover this up if it's bad. From the government's standpoint the worse thing to admit is that you have lost control of the situation which leads to a general panic. China might pull it off easier but even with all their controls the word is still getting out.
Not to mention citizens meeting the roadblocks with AR'15's.
 

Dozdoats

On TB every waking moment

jward

passin' thru
So....???
Confirmed:
- chicago. 60 yo female. Return 1\13. Dr 1\15
-seatle. Two confirmed
.................
Unconfirmed and questionable in new jersey, new york, texas, california &....?
ETA MN
Canada & mexico also reported questionables within last 36 hrs...
Global: MilitaryInfo
@Global_Mil_Info


Trump Administration brief on the #Wuhan virus: - Airborne virus. - Can remain on objects. - Two week incubation period. - CDC confirms third individual in the US has the virus.
 
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raven

TB Fanatic
A friend of mine married a lady from China and now lives stateside. She follows the Chinese media closely and she's saying that they are now stating that the virus is biological warfare. It was planted by the US and is genetically designed to affect only Chinese people. This is gonna get even more interesting I'm afraid...
MT
It would be good for human caused climate change. I have always said that if you are going to reduce world population, you have to go where the people are. Over half the global population resides in East Asia.
However, it does not matter whether it is true - that it is a genetically designed WMD.
It only matters what people "believe".
That's how nukes get launched
 

TheSearcher

Are you sure about that?
It would be good for human caused climate change. I have always said that if you are going to reduce world population, you have to go where the people are. Over half the global population resides in East Asia.
However, it does not matter whether it is true - that it is a genetically designed WMD.

Yeahhh... Not good.
 

ChicagoMan74

ULTRA MAGA
A friend of mine married a lady from China and now lives stateside. She follows the Chinese media closely and she's saying that they are now stating that the virus is biological warfare. It was planted by the US and is genetically designed to affect only Chinese people. This is gonna get even more interesting I'm afraid...
MT
So we've now heard the "report" of people dropping dead in the street in China, now its a bio-weapon from the U.S. only affecting Chinese, (probably from a rogue CIA bat methinks) all we need now is zombies...that's all that's left. Well maybe not...someone needs to post a grainy youtube of a Chinese EAS broadcast of said zombie apocalypse...that'll make a believer out of me.
 

20Gauge

TB Fanatic
So we've now heard the "report" of people dropping dead in the street in China, now its a bio-weapon from the U.S. only affecting Chinese, (probably from a rogue CIA bat methinks) all we need now is zombies...that's all that's left. Well maybe not...someone needs to post a grainy youtube of a Chinese EAS broadcast of said zombie apocalypse...that'll make a believer out of me.

I am all for Zombies. This is worse, you can't tell who is infected! Takes all the fun out of the end of the world if you can't tell whom to shoot.

Just saying....
 

The Traveler

Veteran Member
Here is my take on this. Presently we have 2 cases that are verified. One in Washington State and one in Illinois. Both flew here from China if my memory serves me. If we start seeing clusters of verified cases in those two areas, imo we will have a big f'ing problem. If we dont, then this is overhyped. YMMV.
 

bw

Fringe Ranger
A friend of mine married a lady from China and now lives stateside. She follows the Chinese media closely and she's saying that they are now stating that the virus is biological warfare. It was planted by the US and is genetically designed to affect only Chinese people. This is gonna get even more interesting I'm afraid...

Now that's exactly the calming and steadying influence we needed at this point. Panic will decline, cooperation will be enhanced, and a wave of good feeling will wash over us and bear us up. Great.
 

packyderms_wife

Neither here nor there.
Nah, I don't see it. We have been squeezing them very effectively in other ways, doing this to them makes no sense.

This^^^ If the US were to unleash biological warfare on China half to three quarters of the country would be dead or dying by now. And we have stuff that works much faster than the three week incubation period than this virus. Three weeks would give a country time to retaliate. Nope you want twenty four hours or less.
 
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