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Doom is ALWAYS 6 Months Away...
From Zerohedge. Looking for more information to confirm:
19 minutes ago
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link
This message just dropped from Germany:
My father is a old friend of Putin. They where together in Dresden for the KGB.
He got a call.
Corana will kill probably 10%-20% of the total world Population in the best case. 50% in the worst case.
Me and my father will buy canned goods tomorrow.
Stay at home and limit contact if it breaks out.
In the worst case my family will go back to russia, if 50% of the population dies the state will brake.
Do with this Information what you want, no one will believe you.
Just watch if your Big statesman are still in public in television, if not **** is happening.
19 minutes ago
remove
link
This message just dropped from Germany:
My father is a old friend of Putin. They where together in Dresden for the KGB.
He got a call.
Corana will kill probably 10%-20% of the total world Population in the best case. 50% in the worst case.
Me and my father will buy canned goods tomorrow.
Stay at home and limit contact if it breaks out.
In the worst case my family will go back to russia, if 50% of the population dies the state will brake.
Do with this Information what you want, no one will believe you.
Just watch if your Big statesman are still in public in television, if not **** is happening.
Tristan
Has No Life - Lives on TB
Too long, probably.
Heliobas Disciple
TB Fanatic
Article is in Chinese; I ran it through google translate:
(fair use applies)
WHO: China has reported fourth-generation cases in Wuhan, yet further evidence confirmed
January 24, 2020, 15:20 Source: Caixin.com
(Special correspondent from Geneva, Switzerland, Li Zengxin, Wu Hongyuran, Zeng Jiafulin)
The WHO made this disclosure in a statement about the new coronavirus emergency committee, which had previously stated that it had not received precise evidence of domestic third-generation transmission and international second-generation transmission. WHO will meet again in ten days or less
At 2 a.m. on January 24, Beijing time, or 7 p.m. on January 23, Central Standard Time, the latest statement released by the World Health Organization (WHO) disclosed that China has reported to it "the fourth generation of cases in Wuhan and Wuhan Other second-generation cases ", but did not elaborate further. The WHO made this disclosure in the " International Health Regulations Emergency Committee Meeting Statement on the New Coronavirus (2019-nCoV) Epidemic ".
Caixin contacted the relevant person in charge of the Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention for details. No reply was available at the time of writing.
Earlier, the agency had stated that it had not obtained precise evidence of domestic third-generation transmission and international second-generation transmission. At 9 pm Central Standard Time on January 22, when the WHO first held a press conference on the Wuhan epidemic, it had stated that "they have now seen family infections caused by close contact, which is not uncommon in respiratory diseases. But it is not yet common. Obtain evidence of continuous transmission to the third or fourth generation. "
At a press conference on the evening of the 22nd, WHO Director-General Tedros Adhanom pointed out that there is no evidence to prove that the third and fourth generations of the epidemic have now spread. He also noted that the new coronavirus showed stability and showed no difference in any abnormal activity.
The intergenerational transmission of infectious diseases is an important factor defining its severity. The more intergenerational transmission, the more severe the epidemic, and even "super communicators" may appear. According to Caixin's previous report, to prove that the virus has the ability to "continue human to human," at least three generations of human-to-human transmission is required, such as A to B, B to C, and C to D. (See what the two members of the high-level expert group of Caixin Cyber Health Committee revealed recently? )
At present, WHO has confirmed "people to people." Maria Kerkhove, acting director of the WHO's Emerging Diseases Department, said there is now evidence of "human-to-human" evidence of the new coronavirus epidemic. This evidence suggests that “person-to-person” situations can occur in close contact with suspicious cases or in medical settings.
This is in line with Zhong Nanshan, the leader of the high-level expert group of the National Health Committee of China. Zhong Nanshan called for vigilance against the new type of coronavirus being transmitted from person to person in the hospital. According to a report by the Wuhan Municipal Health Commission on January 21, a total of 15 medical workers in Wuhan were diagnosed with pneumonia cases of the new coronavirus infection. In addition, one medical worker was a suspected case. One of these 16 medical workers is critically ill. (See Caixin Zhongnanshan: Be vigilant against "human-to-human" transmission of new coronavirus in hospitals )
Maria Kirkhoff further pointed out that it is too early to describe how the new coronavirus will be transmitted from person to person. The WHO has made a request to China, hoping that China will provide specific data on the control of the epidemic in Wuhan and other parts of China, including which confirmed cases involve human-to-human transmission, under what circumstances have human-to-human transmission occurred, and in families, health institutions and communities Spread.
Maria Kolkhof also emphasized that there is no evidence to prove that the outbreak is transmitted by the third, fourth and even fifth generations, "but we are working very hard to grasp more infections. To better provide protection. "
At the same time, she pointed out, "It is very important that we have not detected the phenomenon of (secondary transmission) in cases exported from China." According to Caixin reporter statistics, as of 24:00 on January 21, 7 cases were confirmed overseas, 1 case was reported from Japan, 4 were from Thailand, 1 was from South Korea, and 1 was from the United States.
She also reminded all countries that had exported or imported cases of the new coronavirus "to be aware of the extent of subsequent transmission and the extent to which second-generation transmission due to intimate contact has reached."
For respiratory diseases, it is not surprising to have the characteristics of "human to human". "SARS and MERS have demonstrated the" human-to-human "situation. Ebola virus has gone through multiple generations of" human-to-human "," said Michael Ryan, the head of the WHO emergency program. To judge the factors that affect the epidemic, more importantly, it is still necessary to trace back to the source of the disease in an appropriate way, identify it or them, and make recommendations to break the chain of infection.
Australian National University professor of medicine Sanjaya Senanayake said: The emergence of fourth-generation transmission cases shows that the virus can be transmitted from person to person more effectively than a week ago.
He told Caixin reporter, "If I was interviewed about a week ago, based on the information I saw, I would say that there is no human-to-human transmission, or that such transmission is restricted. But now the fourth generation The emergence of transmission shows the speed at which the virus is spreading, and we are constantly learning about the behavior of this virus. Perhaps within 48 hours, we will know other things. "
He said that although it currently appears that compared with SARS, the mortality rate of new coronavirus pneumonia is much lower, about 4%; and the people currently killed are often elderly people with other diseases at the same time, not health. Young people.
"But if the new crown virus is more contagious than we thought, when there are many cases, a 4% mortality rate still means a lot of deaths."
But he also said frankly that the outbreak has not happened for a few weeks, "so we don't know much about it."
WHO held its first press conference on the evening of January 22, Central European Time. At the second press conference on the evening of January 23, only the negative “international public health incident” was explained, and the related cases of the “four generations” were not mentioned. The WHO Director General stated at the meeting that "the international conference call on the Wuhan epidemic will be held again in about 10 days or less".
Heliobas Disciple
TB Fanatic
I have noticed that information that I get from the Chinese language papers takes a day or two to reach 'mass consumption' media. If Caixin is reporting 4th generation transmission, you can probably take it to the bank. You'll start seeing this on our MSM in a day or two.
HD
HD
jward
passin' thru
I just don't see how it isn't ALREADY global...now we need to turn eagle eyes to LOCAL areas, cases, how its acting, whos getting it how our resource\need match is holding up...
I know we've been cancelled at local schools and other venues, yet again today in NE MO for "weather" conditions that don't seem to warrant it...im filing that factoid away just in case...
Last edited:
Heliobas Disciple
TB Fanatic
Another article from Caixin in Chinese that was run through google translate:
(fair use applies)
Wuhan Hospital warns of "atypical" patients with fever and cough non-first symptoms
January 24, 2020, 17:04 Source: Caixin.com
At present, many "atypical" cases have been found in the diagnosis and treatment of new pneumonia in the Department of Gastroenterology, Respiratory and Critical Care Medicine of Wuhan University People's Hospital.
The Research Group of the People's Hospital of Wuhan University released on January 24th "The first symptoms of non-respiratory system-identification and protection of patients with new coronavirus pneumonia (2019-nCOV)", reminding medical staff and the public, Be highly vigilant about the hidden source of infection with non-respiratory symptoms as the first symptom.
The “Notice on Printing and Distributing Pneumonia of the New Coronavirus Infection (Trial Version)” issued by the authority points out that the clinical manifestations of the new coronavirus pneumonia are mainly manifested by fever, fatigue, and dry cough. At present, many "atypical" cases have been found in the diagnosis and treatment of new pneumonia in the multidisciplinary department of Gastroenterology, Respiratory and Critical Care Medicine, People's Hospital of Wuhan University.
According to CCTV news, Professor Yu Honggang, director of Department of Gastroenterology, People's Hospital of Wuhan University, introduced an "atypical" case. A 45-year-old man went to the outpatient department of gastroenterology for 3 days due to diarrhea. The doctor repeatedly asked the medical history to confirm that he had a history of exposure to the new coronavirus pneumonia, but no obvious fever and related respiratory symptoms. The visiting doctor considers that he is in the developing stage of the epidemic and has a clear history of contact. Thorough CT with the patient will be performed. The results suggest that multiple sheet-like ground-glass opacities are present in both lungs, and a new coronavirus nucleic acid test of the throat swab was positive, and the final diagnosis was new coronavirus pneumonia.
Professor Chen Guozhong, Director of the Department of Respiratory and Critical Care Medicine, People's Hospital of Wuhan University, said that in the above clinical cases, the patient did not have typical symptoms of respiratory system such as fever and cough at the time of consultation, and only the first symptoms of digestive system symptoms: such as mild appetite, Fatigue, poor mentality, nausea, vomiting, diarrhea, etc .; first manifestations of neurological symptoms: such as headache; first manifestations of cardiovascular system symptoms: such as palpitation, chest tightness, etc .; first manifestations of ophthalmic symptoms: such as conjunctivitis; only Mild sore limbs or lower back muscles.
The results highly warn medical staff and the public that further understanding of the onset symptoms of new coronavirus pneumonia should be strengthened, and identification and protection should be strengthened. Experts remind that the above-mentioned patients with non-respiratory system as the first manifestation are easy to go to relevant departments (such as Gastroenterology, Neurology, Cardiovascular Medicine, etc.), especially in the Department of Gastroenterology. Due to the lack of obvious specific clinical manifestations of these patients, the diagnosis is significantly more difficult, which may easily lead to missed diagnosis or misdiagnosis, and increase the chance of infection.
This result also warns that patients are easily ignored by themselves due to the absence of fever and respiratory symptoms. Because patients are also infectious during the incubation period, the infectivity will increase before and after the onset of the disease, so this type of "atypical" patients will also be very important hidden infection sources, which need to strengthen self-isolation.
The research team specifically reminded that medical staff should inquire about the patient's medical history in more detail, especially the history of contact of suspected or confirmed patients, and the history of fever in the past two weeks. At the same time, for such "atypical" cases, timely blood tests and respiratory pathogenic tests are performed, and chest CT examinations are performed under conditions. At the same time, full communication should be made with patients and their families. If abnormality is suggested, the detection of coronavirus should be further improved. The research team particularly emphasized that chest X-rays of patients are not recommended during the epidemic period, because chest radiographs cannot detect early exudative lesions, which can easily lead to missed diagnosis.
For the public, it is even more important to realize that "early prevention, early detection, early diagnosis, early isolation, and early treatment" are the keys to preventing and treating new coronavirus pneumonia. We must further increase our awareness of protection every day. We must wear masks to avoid going to public places with a lot of people. We especially emphasize reducing family gatherings. Wash hands and face frequently. Pay attention to regular disinfection of mobile phones and public computer keyboards. Learn to properly cough and sneeze. It is strictly forbidden to spit in any way; do not throw away used masks randomly and put them in a garbage bag for sealing. (Finish)
(fair use applies)
Wuhan Hospital warns of "atypical" patients with fever and cough non-first symptoms
January 24, 2020, 17:04 Source: Caixin.com
At present, many "atypical" cases have been found in the diagnosis and treatment of new pneumonia in the Department of Gastroenterology, Respiratory and Critical Care Medicine of Wuhan University People's Hospital.
The Research Group of the People's Hospital of Wuhan University released on January 24th "The first symptoms of non-respiratory system-identification and protection of patients with new coronavirus pneumonia (2019-nCOV)", reminding medical staff and the public, Be highly vigilant about the hidden source of infection with non-respiratory symptoms as the first symptom.
The “Notice on Printing and Distributing Pneumonia of the New Coronavirus Infection (Trial Version)” issued by the authority points out that the clinical manifestations of the new coronavirus pneumonia are mainly manifested by fever, fatigue, and dry cough. At present, many "atypical" cases have been found in the diagnosis and treatment of new pneumonia in the multidisciplinary department of Gastroenterology, Respiratory and Critical Care Medicine, People's Hospital of Wuhan University.
According to CCTV news, Professor Yu Honggang, director of Department of Gastroenterology, People's Hospital of Wuhan University, introduced an "atypical" case. A 45-year-old man went to the outpatient department of gastroenterology for 3 days due to diarrhea. The doctor repeatedly asked the medical history to confirm that he had a history of exposure to the new coronavirus pneumonia, but no obvious fever and related respiratory symptoms. The visiting doctor considers that he is in the developing stage of the epidemic and has a clear history of contact. Thorough CT with the patient will be performed. The results suggest that multiple sheet-like ground-glass opacities are present in both lungs, and a new coronavirus nucleic acid test of the throat swab was positive, and the final diagnosis was new coronavirus pneumonia.
Professor Chen Guozhong, Director of the Department of Respiratory and Critical Care Medicine, People's Hospital of Wuhan University, said that in the above clinical cases, the patient did not have typical symptoms of respiratory system such as fever and cough at the time of consultation, and only the first symptoms of digestive system symptoms: such as mild appetite, Fatigue, poor mentality, nausea, vomiting, diarrhea, etc .; first manifestations of neurological symptoms: such as headache; first manifestations of cardiovascular system symptoms: such as palpitation, chest tightness, etc .; first manifestations of ophthalmic symptoms: such as conjunctivitis; only Mild sore limbs or lower back muscles.
The results highly warn medical staff and the public that further understanding of the onset symptoms of new coronavirus pneumonia should be strengthened, and identification and protection should be strengthened. Experts remind that the above-mentioned patients with non-respiratory system as the first manifestation are easy to go to relevant departments (such as Gastroenterology, Neurology, Cardiovascular Medicine, etc.), especially in the Department of Gastroenterology. Due to the lack of obvious specific clinical manifestations of these patients, the diagnosis is significantly more difficult, which may easily lead to missed diagnosis or misdiagnosis, and increase the chance of infection.
This result also warns that patients are easily ignored by themselves due to the absence of fever and respiratory symptoms. Because patients are also infectious during the incubation period, the infectivity will increase before and after the onset of the disease, so this type of "atypical" patients will also be very important hidden infection sources, which need to strengthen self-isolation.
The research team specifically reminded that medical staff should inquire about the patient's medical history in more detail, especially the history of contact of suspected or confirmed patients, and the history of fever in the past two weeks. At the same time, for such "atypical" cases, timely blood tests and respiratory pathogenic tests are performed, and chest CT examinations are performed under conditions. At the same time, full communication should be made with patients and their families. If abnormality is suggested, the detection of coronavirus should be further improved. The research team particularly emphasized that chest X-rays of patients are not recommended during the epidemic period, because chest radiographs cannot detect early exudative lesions, which can easily lead to missed diagnosis.
For the public, it is even more important to realize that "early prevention, early detection, early diagnosis, early isolation, and early treatment" are the keys to preventing and treating new coronavirus pneumonia. We must further increase our awareness of protection every day. We must wear masks to avoid going to public places with a lot of people. We especially emphasize reducing family gatherings. Wash hands and face frequently. Pay attention to regular disinfection of mobile phones and public computer keyboards. Learn to properly cough and sneeze. It is strictly forbidden to spit in any way; do not throw away used masks randomly and put them in a garbage bag for sealing. (Finish)
Hurricanehic
Veteran Member
North Carolina possible case
www.cbs17.com
Health officials investigate possible case of coronavirus in North Carolina
RALEIGH, N.C. (WNCN) – North Carolina health officials said a possible case of coronavirus is under investigation in the state. A person who recently traveled to China passed through Wuhan Ci…
www.cbs17.com
jward
passin' thru
Yeah below the article you quoted i shared the who update...i figure once who confirms and admits to us, were at least days, if not weeks into it being a fact...guess the chinese papers are the same lol. Still TY for posting the info!!
Heliobas Disciple
TB Fanatic
Oops, missed it while I was configuring and cleaning up my post. I agree once the WHO reports it, it's a few days old, then it takes a day or two more for it to reach MSM. I think Caixin is the only paper right now reporting the WHO update, but I didn't google it, could be others are going to pick it up soon.
HD
ETA: two other sources showing up on google: VOX and Stat. none of the major MSM providers.
Truthsearch
Doom is ALWAYS 6 Months Away...
CORONAVIRUS: Reports of 10,000 DEAD in Wuhan, China
CORONAVIRUS: Reports of 10,000 DEAD in Wuhan, China - Geller Report News
CORONAVIRUS: Reports of 10,000 DEAD in Wuhan, China - Geller Report News
Seeker22
Has No Life - Lives on TB
Too long.
jward
passin' thru
No idea about papers, I only see what y'all so graciously share here, or on twitter-verse...still struggling to digest the fourth generation implications, but...n i like to see info shared from a variet of sources, in a variety of ways, I think it helps. Except for bombings, then it seems to promote trauma for the readers...
Heliobas Disciple
TB Fanatic
This is the VOX article that talks about 4th generation transmission:
www.vox.com
(fair use applies)
The coronavirus outbreak is not yet a global health emergency, WHO says
With more than 600 cases in at least seven countries, the agency said it’s “too early” to sound the international alarm.
By Julia Belluz@juliaoftoronto julia.belluz@voxmedia.com
Updated Jan 24, 2020, 7:22am EST
The World Health Organization has determined that the outbreak of the SARS-like coronavirus spreading rapidly across China is not yet a global health emergency — a rare designation the agency gives outbreaks that pose an international risk.
The decision Thursday comes as the number of people diagnosed with the 2019-nCoV virus has surged to more than 650, and there are cases in at least seven other countries, with 18 people dead.
“Make no mistake, this is an emergency in China. But it has not yet become a global health emergency,” said Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus, the director general of the WHO. He was referring specifically to the formal “public health emergency of international concern,” or PHEIC, declaration an expert committee at the agency had considered.
But because of the limited number of cases that have spread outside of China to date, and China’s efforts to control the outbreak, the committee determined it was too early to use the designation. “At this time, there is no evidence of human-to-human transmission outside China, but that doesn’t mean it won’t happen,” Tedros added.
The outbreak was only reported to the WHO by Chinese officials 3.5 weeks ago, on December 31. It appears to have originated in Wuhan, a city of 11 million in Hubei province. At that point, cases centered on Wuhan’s Huanan South China Seafood Market and the leading hypothesis was that the virus was spreading directly from animals to humans there.
But since last week, cases have jumped from around 50 to 634. By Tuesday, the WHO’s Western Pacific Regional Office said there may be “sustained” human-to-human transmission, meaning the virus can transmit easily from one person to the next and then onward to others, raising the specter of another pathogen in the coronavirus family, SARS.
On Thursday, WHO confirmed that there is “fourth-generation” spread of the virus in Wuhan, meaning there are cases where an individual has spread it to a second person, that second person spread it to a third, and the third to a fourth. Outside of Wuhan, they also have evidence of second-generation cases.
Now, the toll is expected to continue to increase as hundreds of millions of people across China travel for Lunar New Year in the world’s largest annual human migration. Chinese authorities have been scrambling to control the spread of the virus, even taking the extraordinary measure of imposing travel restrictions on the 20 million people who live in Wuhan and two neighboring cities.
For these reasons, global public health experts expected an emergency might already be declared Thursday. “This is a very serious outbreak with the potential for widespread transmission,” said Tom Inglesby, director of the Center for Health Security at the Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health. A declaration would have been a “means to gaining deeper international cooperation.”
“This outbreak satisfies the criteria of [a global health emergency] under the law,” said Alexandra Phelan, a member of the Center for Global Health Science and Security at Georgetown University. “It’s very likely we’ll see more cases around the world. Now, we need to ensure hospitals and doctors are prepared and ready to respond when someone does come in” with the virus.
The WHO has only declared a global health emergency five times
The WHO doesn’t take the decision to sound the global alarm about outbreaks lightly. Formally, a PHEIC — pronounced “fake” — is defined as “an extraordinary event which is determined to constitute a public health risk to other States through the international spread of disease and to potentially require a coordinated international response.”
In reality, it’s a political tool the WHO can use to draw attention to a serious disease that has caught the world off guard and put people’s health in danger. It’s meant to engage the global community in a coordinated outbreak response, galvanize resources, and stop the disease from spreading further across borders.
A key consideration in declaring a PHEIC is whether the disease threat is dire enough to risk countries enacting travel and trade restrictions. Declarations can be devastating to local economies and are often associated with economic losses. According to Reuters, the global economic losses from the 2003 SARS outbreak totaled $40 billion, and the world’s gross domestic product “suffered a 0.1% hit due to the outbreak.”
The WHO has only declared a public health emergency five times, since the International Health Regulations — which govern global health emergency responses — were enacted in 2007. The first time was in 2009, with the outbreak of the H1N1 swine flu pandemic. The second was in May 2014, when polio seemed to surge again, threatening the eradication effort. The third time, in August 2014, came as the Ebola outbreak in West Africa was growing out of control. The fourth was related to Zika in 2016. And the fifth, in 2019, was another outbreak of Ebola that’s ongoing in the Democratic Republic of Congo.
WHO’s Tedros said he wouldn’t hesitate to convene another meeting in the near future to deliberate on whether the outbreak constitutes a PHEIC. For now, he warned that more coronavirus cases may soon spread outside of China, and that countries need to be ready. The agency stopped short of recommending any travel or trade restrictions at this time, instead suggesting people take precautions like making sure their hands are clean and that they don’t cough on others if they’re sick.
There’s a lot we don’t know about the virus
There’s still a lot to learn about 2019-nCoV, but here’s what we do know. It’s part of a large family of viruses that attack the respiratory symptom, called coronaviruses. In humans, coronaviruses can lead to symptoms that range from the common cold to severe pneumonia and death in the case of SARS and MERS. It’s not yet clear where 2019-nCoV falls on that spectrum.
We also don’t know exactly which animal carries this virus, how exactly it spreads, and how easily it spreads among people. According to a preliminary estimate from WHO, each individual transmits the virus to 1.4 to 2.5 others. That makes this virus, at least right now, about as contagious as the flu but less contagious than SARS.
Even so, the fact that cases are already turning up in so many countries mere weeks after this outbreak was first declared suggests we should brace ourselves for an escalation.
“Now compared to 24 hours ago, I’m more concerned about how infectious it is,” said Tom Frieden, the former director of the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. “If the sustained human transmission and a high rate of severe illness are confirmed, then it clearly is an event of international concern.”
Others compared the new coronavirus outbreak to the 2003 SARS outbreak, which eventually killed 774 people and infected more than 8,000. “Three weeks ago, we thought this would be a small localized outbreak, but at this point, it’s looking like a SARS-like event,” said Peter Daszak, the president of EcoHealth Alliance, a US global health research organization working in China. “The mortality rate is beginning to creep up. Health care workers are infected. We got our first case in the US.”
Daszak noted that there are also important differences from the SARS outbreak. This time, the public health system is stronger. Chinese authorities appear to be sharing information more readily. (They were heavily criticized in 2003 for withholding information for too long and exacerbating the spread of the virus.) Chinese scientists also released the genetic sequence of the virus early in the new year, which meant diagnostic tests to find cases could be developed rapidly.
It’s also possible that as officials find more patients with the virus, we’ll learn it is milder than it appears to be right now, Frieden said. “There is still an enormous amount we don’t know about how and how readily it spreads and how often it causes severe illness.” He added, “The fact that hundreds of millions of people will be traveling right now in China, let’s just say, is not great timing.”
The coronavirus outbreak is not yet a global health emergency, WHO says
With more than 600 cases in at least seven countries, the agency said it’s "too early" to sound the international alarm.
www.vox.com
The coronavirus outbreak is not yet a global health emergency, WHO says
With more than 600 cases in at least seven countries, the agency said it’s “too early” to sound the international alarm.
By Julia Belluz@juliaoftoronto julia.belluz@voxmedia.com
Updated Jan 24, 2020, 7:22am EST
The World Health Organization has determined that the outbreak of the SARS-like coronavirus spreading rapidly across China is not yet a global health emergency — a rare designation the agency gives outbreaks that pose an international risk.
The decision Thursday comes as the number of people diagnosed with the 2019-nCoV virus has surged to more than 650, and there are cases in at least seven other countries, with 18 people dead.
“Make no mistake, this is an emergency in China. But it has not yet become a global health emergency,” said Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus, the director general of the WHO. He was referring specifically to the formal “public health emergency of international concern,” or PHEIC, declaration an expert committee at the agency had considered.
But because of the limited number of cases that have spread outside of China to date, and China’s efforts to control the outbreak, the committee determined it was too early to use the designation. “At this time, there is no evidence of human-to-human transmission outside China, but that doesn’t mean it won’t happen,” Tedros added.
The outbreak was only reported to the WHO by Chinese officials 3.5 weeks ago, on December 31. It appears to have originated in Wuhan, a city of 11 million in Hubei province. At that point, cases centered on Wuhan’s Huanan South China Seafood Market and the leading hypothesis was that the virus was spreading directly from animals to humans there.
But since last week, cases have jumped from around 50 to 634. By Tuesday, the WHO’s Western Pacific Regional Office said there may be “sustained” human-to-human transmission, meaning the virus can transmit easily from one person to the next and then onward to others, raising the specter of another pathogen in the coronavirus family, SARS.
On Thursday, WHO confirmed that there is “fourth-generation” spread of the virus in Wuhan, meaning there are cases where an individual has spread it to a second person, that second person spread it to a third, and the third to a fourth. Outside of Wuhan, they also have evidence of second-generation cases.
Now, the toll is expected to continue to increase as hundreds of millions of people across China travel for Lunar New Year in the world’s largest annual human migration. Chinese authorities have been scrambling to control the spread of the virus, even taking the extraordinary measure of imposing travel restrictions on the 20 million people who live in Wuhan and two neighboring cities.
For these reasons, global public health experts expected an emergency might already be declared Thursday. “This is a very serious outbreak with the potential for widespread transmission,” said Tom Inglesby, director of the Center for Health Security at the Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health. A declaration would have been a “means to gaining deeper international cooperation.”
“This outbreak satisfies the criteria of [a global health emergency] under the law,” said Alexandra Phelan, a member of the Center for Global Health Science and Security at Georgetown University. “It’s very likely we’ll see more cases around the world. Now, we need to ensure hospitals and doctors are prepared and ready to respond when someone does come in” with the virus.
The WHO has only declared a global health emergency five times
The WHO doesn’t take the decision to sound the global alarm about outbreaks lightly. Formally, a PHEIC — pronounced “fake” — is defined as “an extraordinary event which is determined to constitute a public health risk to other States through the international spread of disease and to potentially require a coordinated international response.”
In reality, it’s a political tool the WHO can use to draw attention to a serious disease that has caught the world off guard and put people’s health in danger. It’s meant to engage the global community in a coordinated outbreak response, galvanize resources, and stop the disease from spreading further across borders.
A key consideration in declaring a PHEIC is whether the disease threat is dire enough to risk countries enacting travel and trade restrictions. Declarations can be devastating to local economies and are often associated with economic losses. According to Reuters, the global economic losses from the 2003 SARS outbreak totaled $40 billion, and the world’s gross domestic product “suffered a 0.1% hit due to the outbreak.”
The WHO has only declared a public health emergency five times, since the International Health Regulations — which govern global health emergency responses — were enacted in 2007. The first time was in 2009, with the outbreak of the H1N1 swine flu pandemic. The second was in May 2014, when polio seemed to surge again, threatening the eradication effort. The third time, in August 2014, came as the Ebola outbreak in West Africa was growing out of control. The fourth was related to Zika in 2016. And the fifth, in 2019, was another outbreak of Ebola that’s ongoing in the Democratic Republic of Congo.
WHO’s Tedros said he wouldn’t hesitate to convene another meeting in the near future to deliberate on whether the outbreak constitutes a PHEIC. For now, he warned that more coronavirus cases may soon spread outside of China, and that countries need to be ready. The agency stopped short of recommending any travel or trade restrictions at this time, instead suggesting people take precautions like making sure their hands are clean and that they don’t cough on others if they’re sick.
There’s a lot we don’t know about the virus
There’s still a lot to learn about 2019-nCoV, but here’s what we do know. It’s part of a large family of viruses that attack the respiratory symptom, called coronaviruses. In humans, coronaviruses can lead to symptoms that range from the common cold to severe pneumonia and death in the case of SARS and MERS. It’s not yet clear where 2019-nCoV falls on that spectrum.
We also don’t know exactly which animal carries this virus, how exactly it spreads, and how easily it spreads among people. According to a preliminary estimate from WHO, each individual transmits the virus to 1.4 to 2.5 others. That makes this virus, at least right now, about as contagious as the flu but less contagious than SARS.
Even so, the fact that cases are already turning up in so many countries mere weeks after this outbreak was first declared suggests we should brace ourselves for an escalation.
“Now compared to 24 hours ago, I’m more concerned about how infectious it is,” said Tom Frieden, the former director of the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. “If the sustained human transmission and a high rate of severe illness are confirmed, then it clearly is an event of international concern.”
Others compared the new coronavirus outbreak to the 2003 SARS outbreak, which eventually killed 774 people and infected more than 8,000. “Three weeks ago, we thought this would be a small localized outbreak, but at this point, it’s looking like a SARS-like event,” said Peter Daszak, the president of EcoHealth Alliance, a US global health research organization working in China. “The mortality rate is beginning to creep up. Health care workers are infected. We got our first case in the US.”
Daszak noted that there are also important differences from the SARS outbreak. This time, the public health system is stronger. Chinese authorities appear to be sharing information more readily. (They were heavily criticized in 2003 for withholding information for too long and exacerbating the spread of the virus.) Chinese scientists also released the genetic sequence of the virus early in the new year, which meant diagnostic tests to find cases could be developed rapidly.
It’s also possible that as officials find more patients with the virus, we’ll learn it is milder than it appears to be right now, Frieden said. “There is still an enormous amount we don’t know about how and how readily it spreads and how often it causes severe illness.” He added, “The fact that hundreds of millions of people will be traveling right now in China, let’s just say, is not great timing.”
IceWave
Veteran Member
Close to home for me.
www.fox2detroit.com
State sends three possible cases of coronavirus in SE Michigan to CDC for testing
Published 1 hour ago
Health
FOX 2 Detroit
DETROIT (FOX 2) - The Michigan Department of Health and Human Services (MDHHS) says it is investigating two possible cases of Coronavirus in Washtenaw and Macomb Counties.
According to the MDHHS, there are two people in Washtenaw County and one in Macomb County who have had their specimens sent to the CDC. There has not yet been a turnaround time given for when the results are expected to be finished.
All cases being investigated in Michigan have presented with mild illness, according to the MDHHS, and they are all self-isolating and local health departments are closely monitoring anyone who has been in close contact with them.
At this time, the only approved testing for coronavirus is available at the CDC. MDHHS can accept the specimens and then send them to the CDC for testing and confirmation.
MDHHS says it is 'actively monitoring' the outbreak, which is originating from Wuhan, China. Those efforts include special attention to people who present with symptoms of lower illness (cough or difficulty breathing), fever, and report a travel history that includes Wuhan or contact with an ill individual who is under investigation for coronavirus infection.
State sends three possible cases of coronavirus in SE Michigan to CDC for testing
The Michigan Department of Health and Human Services (MDHHS) says it is investigating two possible cases of Coronavirus in Washtenaw and Macomb Counties.
State sends three possible cases of coronavirus in SE Michigan to CDC for testing
Published 1 hour ago
Health
FOX 2 Detroit
DETROIT (FOX 2) - The Michigan Department of Health and Human Services (MDHHS) says it is investigating two possible cases of Coronavirus in Washtenaw and Macomb Counties.
According to the MDHHS, there are two people in Washtenaw County and one in Macomb County who have had their specimens sent to the CDC. There has not yet been a turnaround time given for when the results are expected to be finished.
All cases being investigated in Michigan have presented with mild illness, according to the MDHHS, and they are all self-isolating and local health departments are closely monitoring anyone who has been in close contact with them.
At this time, the only approved testing for coronavirus is available at the CDC. MDHHS can accept the specimens and then send them to the CDC for testing and confirmation.
MDHHS says it is 'actively monitoring' the outbreak, which is originating from Wuhan, China. Those efforts include special attention to people who present with symptoms of lower illness (cough or difficulty breathing), fever, and report a travel history that includes Wuhan or contact with an ill individual who is under investigation for coronavirus infection.
Heliobas Disciple
TB Fanatic
From STAT, the only other source I found on google to be reporting the 4th generation transmission of the virus.
www.statnews.com
(fair use applies)
Four ‘generations’ of spread seen with virus in China, alarming experts
By Helen Branswell
January 23, 2020
Emerging data on the new virus circulating in China adds to evidence there is sustained human-to-human transmission in the city of Wuhan, and that a single case was able to ignite a chain of other infections.
The World Health Organization reported Thursday that there have been at least four generations of spread of the new virus, provisionally called 2019-nCoV, meaning a person who contracted the virus from a non-human source — presumably an animal — has infected a person, who infected another person, who then infected another person.
It’s not clear from a WHO statement whether transmission petered out after that point, or whether further generations of cases from those chains are still to come.
The WHO said the current estimate of the reproductive rate of the virus — the number of people, on average, that each infected person infects — is between 1.4 and 2.5. To stop an outbreak, the reproduction number has to be brought below one.
“That gives me no comfort at all that anything that’s happening right now is going to bring this under control any time soon,” Michael Osterholm, director of the University of Minnesota’s Center for Infectious Disease Research and Policy, said of the data the WHO released.
“And I think that as long as the virus is circulating in China as it appears to be, the rest of the world is going to be constantly pinged with it, as a result of people traveling to and from China in the near future,” he said.
To date, nine other countries, including the United States, have diagnosed cases of this new illness in tourists who traveled to Wuhan or residents who returned from there.
Dr. Allison McGeer, who has firsthand experience with outbreaks caused by coronaviruses — the family to which 2019-nCoV belongs — also expressed concern about prospects for containing the outbreak.
McGeer, a researcher at the Mount Sinai Hospital in Toronto, noted that the city’s SARS outbreak took off when fourth-generation cases were infected in the city’s hospitals. McGeer contracted SARS during that outbreak.
The WHO released the information in a statement following a press conference during which Director-General Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus announced the global health agency was not yet ready to declare the rapidly evolving outbreak in China a global health emergency.
The decision was based on advice from a committee of outside experts. That committee was effectively split about whether the outbreak constitutes what is known as a global health emergency of international concern.
“Make no mistake: This is an emergency in China. But it has not yet become a global health emergency. It may yet become one,’’ Tedros, as he is known, said.
China has effectively quarantined eight cities — home to tens of millions of people — to try to contain spread of the virus. The move comes as much of the country is traveling to be with family to celebrate the Lunar New Year, which is Saturday. Guangdong province, which has reported rising numbers of cases, has declared a public health emergency.
China first informed the WHO of the outbreak on Dec. 31, and developments have been rapid in the just over three weeks since then. As of Thursday the global case count was approaching 600, with at least 17 deaths.
A University of Hong Kong study published in the online journal Eurosurveillance on Thursday said the emerging evidence points to sustained person-to-person spread of the virus in Wuhan.
The paper mapped out two possible scenarios of how the virus is spreading. The first involved many of the cases having been infected by exposure to as-yet unidentified animals; the second depicted a situation where some people were infected by animals in early December, with person-to-person spread accounting for the bulk of cases since.
The early evidence “was most consistent with limited human-to-human transmissibility, however more recent data seem to be increasingly more compatible with scenario 2 in which sustained human-to-human transmission has been occurring,” the team reported. The senior author of the paper was Gabriel Leung, dean of medicine at the university.
Four 'generations' of spread seen with virus in China, alarming experts
Emerging data on the new virus circulating in China adds to evidence there is sustained human-to-human transmission in the city of Wuhan.
www.statnews.com
Four ‘generations’ of spread seen with virus in China, alarming experts
By Helen Branswell
January 23, 2020
Emerging data on the new virus circulating in China adds to evidence there is sustained human-to-human transmission in the city of Wuhan, and that a single case was able to ignite a chain of other infections.
The World Health Organization reported Thursday that there have been at least four generations of spread of the new virus, provisionally called 2019-nCoV, meaning a person who contracted the virus from a non-human source — presumably an animal — has infected a person, who infected another person, who then infected another person.
It’s not clear from a WHO statement whether transmission petered out after that point, or whether further generations of cases from those chains are still to come.
The WHO said the current estimate of the reproductive rate of the virus — the number of people, on average, that each infected person infects — is between 1.4 and 2.5. To stop an outbreak, the reproduction number has to be brought below one.
“That gives me no comfort at all that anything that’s happening right now is going to bring this under control any time soon,” Michael Osterholm, director of the University of Minnesota’s Center for Infectious Disease Research and Policy, said of the data the WHO released.
“And I think that as long as the virus is circulating in China as it appears to be, the rest of the world is going to be constantly pinged with it, as a result of people traveling to and from China in the near future,” he said.
To date, nine other countries, including the United States, have diagnosed cases of this new illness in tourists who traveled to Wuhan or residents who returned from there.
Dr. Allison McGeer, who has firsthand experience with outbreaks caused by coronaviruses — the family to which 2019-nCoV belongs — also expressed concern about prospects for containing the outbreak.
McGeer, a researcher at the Mount Sinai Hospital in Toronto, noted that the city’s SARS outbreak took off when fourth-generation cases were infected in the city’s hospitals. McGeer contracted SARS during that outbreak.
The WHO released the information in a statement following a press conference during which Director-General Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus announced the global health agency was not yet ready to declare the rapidly evolving outbreak in China a global health emergency.
The decision was based on advice from a committee of outside experts. That committee was effectively split about whether the outbreak constitutes what is known as a global health emergency of international concern.
“Make no mistake: This is an emergency in China. But it has not yet become a global health emergency. It may yet become one,’’ Tedros, as he is known, said.
China has effectively quarantined eight cities — home to tens of millions of people — to try to contain spread of the virus. The move comes as much of the country is traveling to be with family to celebrate the Lunar New Year, which is Saturday. Guangdong province, which has reported rising numbers of cases, has declared a public health emergency.
China first informed the WHO of the outbreak on Dec. 31, and developments have been rapid in the just over three weeks since then. As of Thursday the global case count was approaching 600, with at least 17 deaths.
A University of Hong Kong study published in the online journal Eurosurveillance on Thursday said the emerging evidence points to sustained person-to-person spread of the virus in Wuhan.
The paper mapped out two possible scenarios of how the virus is spreading. The first involved many of the cases having been infected by exposure to as-yet unidentified animals; the second depicted a situation where some people were infected by animals in early December, with person-to-person spread accounting for the bulk of cases since.
The early evidence “was most consistent with limited human-to-human transmissibility, however more recent data seem to be increasingly more compatible with scenario 2 in which sustained human-to-human transmission has been occurring,” the team reported. The senior author of the paper was Gabriel Leung, dean of medicine at the university.
Esto Perpetua
Veteran Member
Virus built to target certain demographics?
I wonder if DNA testing places like 23 and Me are helping engineer stuff like that?
jward
passin' thru
WORLD
Tracking coronavirus: Map, data and timeline
Published
1 hour ago
on
January 24, 2020
By
BNO NEWS
The table below shows confirmed cases of coronavirus (2019-nCoV) in China and other countries. To see a distribution map and a timeline, scroll down. There are currently 945 confirmed cases worldwide, including 26 fatalities.
Timeline (GMT)
bnonews.com
Tracking coronavirus: Map, data and timeline
Published
1 hour ago
on
January 24, 2020
By
BNO NEWS
The table below shows confirmed cases of coronavirus (2019-nCoV) in China and other countries. To see a distribution map and a timeline, scroll down. There are currently 945 confirmed cases worldwide, including 26 fatalities.
| CHINA | Cases | Deaths | Notes | Links |
| Hubei province (including Wuhan) | 549 | 24 | 106 serious/23 critical | Source |
| Guangdong province | 53 | 0 | 12 serious, 3 critical | Source |
| Zhejiang province | 43 | 0 | 6 serious | Source |
| Beijing | 36 | 0 | Source | |
| Chongqing | 27 | 0 | 5 serious, 1 critical | Source |
| Hunan province | 24 | 0 | 6 serious | Source |
| Guangxi Region | 23 | 0 | Source | |
| Shanghai | 20 | 0 | 2 critical | Source |
| Jiangxi province | 18 | 0 | 4 serious | Source |
| Anhui province | 15 | 0 | All stable | Source |
| Sichuan province | 15 | 0 | 2 critical | Source |
| Shandong province | 15 | 0 | Source | |
| Fujian province | 10 | 0 | Source | |
| Henan province | 9 | 0 | 1 serious | Source |
| Jiangsu province | 9 | 0 | Stable | Source |
| Hainan province | 8 | 0 | Stable | Source |
| Tianjin | 8 | 0 | 6 serious | Source |
| Shaanxi province | 5 | 0 | Source | |
| Yunnan province | 5 | 0 | Source | |
| Liaoning province | 4 | 0 | 3 serious | Source |
| Heilongjiang province | 4 | 1 | Source | |
| Guizhou province | 3 | 0 | Stable | Source |
| Jilin province | 3 | 0 | Source | |
| Xinjiang | 2 | 0 | Stable | Source |
| Ningxia Region | 2 | 0 | 1 serious | Source |
| Hebei province | 2 | 1 | Source | |
| Gansu province | 2 | 0 | Source | |
| Shanxi province | 1 | 0 | Stable | Source |
| Inner Mongolia | 1 | 0 | Source | |
| Hong Kong | 5 | 0 | Source | |
| Taiwan | 3 | 0 | Source | |
| Macau | 2 | 0 | Source | |
| TOTAL | 926 | 26 |
| INTERNATIONAL | Cases | Deaths | Notes | Links |
| Thailand | 5 | 0 | Source | |
| Singapore | 3 | 0 | Stable | Source |
| Japan | 2 | 0 | Source | |
| South Korea | 2 | 0 | Source | |
| United States | 2 | 0 | Source | |
| Vietnam | 2 | 0 | Stable | Source |
| France | 2 | 0 | Source | |
| Nepal | 1 | 0 | Source | |
| TOTAL | 19 | 0 |
Tracking coronavirus: Map, data and timeline
The table below shows cases of coronavirus (officially known as SARS-CoV-2, COVID-19, or 2019-nCoV) around the world. Each figure is verified by our team through local health departments or local media. A distribution map and a timeline with a list of recent updates can be found below the table...
bnonews.com
jward
passin' thru
continued prt 2
24 January
22 January
bnonews.com
24 January
- 19:50: 11 new cases in Jiangxi province, China. (Source)
- 19:22: First 2 cases in France. (Source)
- 17:04: 3 new cases in Hong Kong. (Source)
- 17:00: 10 new cases in Guangxi Zhuang Autonomous Region, China. (Source)
- 15:32: 3 new cases in Yunnan province, China. (Source)
- 15:14: New case in Chicago, Illinois. (Source)
- 14:12: First case in Nepal. (Source)
- 13:58: 1 new case in Tianjin, China. (Source 1, Source 2)
- 13:12: 2 new cases in Beijing. (Source)
- 12:08: 2 new cases in Taiwan. (Source)
- 11:30: 1 new case in Thailand. (Source)
- 11:08: 5 new cases in Beijing. (Source)
- 10:56: 2 new cases in Shaanxi province, China. (Source)
- 07:15: 1 new case in Fujian province, China. (Source)
- 07:14: 2 new cases in Singapore. (Source)
- 06:40: 3 new cases in Beijing. (Source)
- 06:30: 3 new cases in Tianjin, China. (Source 1, Source 2)
- 04:30: 1 new case in Ningxia Hui Autonomous Region, China. (Source)
- 04:29: 6 new cases in Shandong province, China. (Source)
- 04:08: 4 new cases in Fujian province, China. (Source)
- 03:04: First case in Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region, China. (Source)
- 03:03: 1 new case in Liaoning province, China. (Source)
- 03:02: 2 new cases and 1 new death in Heilongjiang province, China. (Source)
- 02:22: 15 new cases in Hunan province, China. (Source)
- 02:17: 3 new cases in Hainan province, China. (Source)
- 01:39: 18 new cases in Chongqing, China. (Source)
- 01:37: 4 new cases in Jiangsu province, China. (Source)
- 01:23: 7 new cases in Sichuan province, China. (Source)
- 01:06: 105 new cases in Hubei province. (Source)
- 01:06: 6 new cases in Anhui province, China. (Source)
- 01:04: 16 new cases in Zhejiang province, China. (Source)
- 01:02: 2 new cases in Jilin province, China. (Source)
- 01:25: 1 new case in South Korea. (Source)
- 00:47: 21 new cases in Guangdong province, China. (Source)
- 00:43: 4 new cases in Henan province, China. (Source)
- 00:43: 3 new cases in Shandong province, China. (Source)
- 00:15: China’s National Health Committee is reporting 174 new cases and 7 new deaths. Their locations have not yet been released. Of those in hospital, 177 patients are in serious to critical condition. (Source)
- Total at the end of the day: 672 cases (+19.8%), 18 deaths (+5.9%)
- 23:58: 4 new cases in Shanghai. (Source)
- 22:48: 1 new case in Hong Kong. (Source)
- 22:21: 1 new case in Japan. (Source)
- 19:52: 4 new cases in Beijing. (Source)
- 17:18: 8 new cases in Guangxi Zhuang Autonomous Region, China. (Source)
- 16:44: 1 new case, a fatality, in Hebei province. The victim was an 80-year-old man. (Source)
- 16:15: 4 new cases in Jiangxi province, China. (Source)
- 15:45: 1 new case in Kunming of Yunnan province, China. (Source)
- 14:42: First 2 cases in Gansu province, China. (Source)
- 13:21: 4 new cases in Jiangsu province, China. (Source)
- 14:10: First 2 cases in Vietnam. (Source)
- 13:09: First case in Singapore. (Source)
- 09:59: First 3 cases in Shaanxi province, China. (Source)
- 09:55: First 2 cases in Xinjiang Region, China. (Source)
- 09:50: 8 new cases in Beijing. (Source)
- 09:14: 1 new case in Fujian province, China. (Source)
- 08:18: 1 new case in Hainan province, China. (Source)
- 05:55: 1 new case in Heilongjiang province, China. (Source)
- 05:47: 17 new cases in Zhejiang province, China. (Source)
- 04:55: 1 new case in Jiangxi province, China. (Source)
- 04:47: 2 new cases in Guizhou province, China. (Source)
- 04:42: 8 new cases in Anhui province, China. (Source)
- 04:41: 1 new case in Macau. (Source)
- 04:24: 3 new cases in Chongqing, China. (Source)
- 03:45: 5 new cases in Hunan province, China. (Source)
- 03:44: 1 new case in Liaoning province, China. (Source)
- 03:18: 3 new cases in Fujian province, China. (Source)
- 03:12: First case in Jilin province, China. (Source)
- 02:45: 6 new cases in Guangdong province, China. (Source)
- 02:23: 3 new cases in Sichuan province, China. (Source)
- 02:15: 4 new cases in Shandong province, China. (Source)
- 01:00: 7 new cases in Shanghai, one of whom is in critical condition. (Source)
- 00:36: China’s National Health Commission has reported 20 new cases. Their locations have not yet been disclosed. Out of those hospitalized, at least 95 are in serious to critical condition. They have also released a list of fatalities, which shows 8 victims were in their 80s, 2 were in their 70s, 5 were in their 60s, 1 was in his 50s, and 1 was in her 40s. (Source)
22 January
- Total at the end of the day: 561 cases (+70%), 17 deaths (+183%)
- 17:13: 3 new cases in Guangxi Zhuang Autonomous Region, China (Source)
- 16:58: First case in Heilongjiang province, China (Source)
- 16:03: First case in Jiangsu province, China (Source)
- 15:41: 4 new cases in Beijing (Source)
- 14:52: First case in Hebei province, China (Source)
- 14:39: 69 new cases and 8 new deaths in Hubei province, China (Source)
- 13:21: 1 new case in Shandong province, China (Source)
- 11:24: 4 new cases in Henan province, China (Source)
- 11:23: First 2 cases in Guangxi Zhuang Autonomous Region, China (Source)
- 11:13: First case in Ningxia Hui Autonomous Region, China (Source)
- 10:54: First case in Shanxi Province, China (Source)
- 10:37: 3 new cases in Sichuan province, China (Source)
- 10:35: 1 new case in Chongqing, China (Source)
- 10:29: 3 new cases in Hunan province, China (Source)
- 10:26: First case in Guizhou province, China (Source)
- 10:18: First case in Fujian province, China (Source)
- 09:50: First 4 cases in Hainan province, China (Source)
- 09:32: First case in Hong Kong (Source)
- 09:25: First case in Anhui province, China (Source)
- 09:14: 103 cases for which the location was not yet known have been added to Hubei province, which includes the city of Wuhan. Two new cases have also been added. Updated figures for Wuhan alone are currently not available.
- 08:41: First 2 cases in Liaoning province, China (Source)
- 07:25: 2 new cases in Tianjin, China (Source)
- 05:19: 2 new cases in Thailand. (Source)
- 05:04: 5 new cases in Zhejiang province, China (Source)
- 04:30: 9 new cases in Guangdong Province, China (Source)
- 03:50: 3 new cases in Shanghai, China (Source)
- 03:13: 1st confirmed case in Macau, China (Source)
- 02:15: China’s National Health Commission reports 3 new deaths and 116 new cases. Their locations have not yet been disclosed.
- Total at the end of the day: 329 cases, 6 deaths
Tracking coronavirus: Map, data and timeline
The table below shows cases of coronavirus (officially known as SARS-CoV-2, COVID-19, or 2019-nCoV) around the world. Each figure is verified by our team through local health departments or local media. A distribution map and a timeline with a list of recent updates can be found below the table...
bnonews.com
desertvet2
Veteran Member
Yes, they have been able to geneticaly target for awhile...the soviets had a lovely cocktail...
That is a most disturbing article, HD. What kind of monster virus is this, anyway?
jward
passin' thru
i just now realized that clicking on the "source" column in charts and tables above takes one to the documented source of origin. Helps if you read chinese fluently tho, and i do not so...lol
Also please note the tables and charts appear to lag behind real time facts on the ground, and of course, rely on real data getting out to be included. Still... interesting n helps in corralling info...
Also please note the tables and charts appear to lag behind real time facts on the ground, and of course, rely on real data getting out to be included. Still... interesting n helps in corralling info...
jward
passin' thru
Were this that, old white folks would be dropping from it, no?
As was stated in another thread, it is mutating.
Trivium Pursuit
Has No Life - Lives on TB
with 1000 confirmed cases and 26 fatalities
someone in China decided it would be good to quarantine 50 million people.
everyone in authority agreed.
you should "know", as fact, that the authorities in China know beyond reasonable doubt:
the incubation period
the period where patients "shed virus"
they know how it is transmitted
they know with a good deal of confidence all the rates - transmission rates, survival rate, cure rate, death rate
how can you be absolutely certain you "know"
Have you ever heard of this type of quarantine? Flu?, SARS?, Ebola?
Name a contagious disease they have quarantined just 1 million people
this is how you know
someone in China decided it would be good to quarantine 50 million people.
everyone in authority agreed.
you should "know", as fact, that the authorities in China know beyond reasonable doubt:
the incubation period
the period where patients "shed virus"
they know how it is transmitted
they know with a good deal of confidence all the rates - transmission rates, survival rate, cure rate, death rate
how can you be absolutely certain you "know"
Have you ever heard of this type of quarantine? Flu?, SARS?, Ebola?
Name a contagious disease they have quarantined just 1 million people
this is how you know
Old Gray Mare
TB Fanatic
Too late. The lunar new year is China's biggest travel holiday. Think Christmas, Easter and Thanks Giving travel rolled into one holiday.Medical tourists? Just no. I hadn't thought of that, but of course, it's a big possibility. Thanks for adding to the nightmare, Meadowlark.
jward
passin' thru
we also know this kinda transmission is occurring but thought id share anyways 
Gert van der Hoek (@GertvanderHoek) Tweeted:
"One confirmed case in Vietnam had no travel history to any part of China but was a family member of a confirmed case who visited Wuhan. This suggests an instance of human to human transmission that occurred in Vietnam".
WHO
China - 2019-nCov cases in several provinces and cities, including confirmed health care workers, at least 25 deaths - FluTrackers News and Information View: https://twitter.com/GertvanderHoek/status/1220826970809868289?s=20
Gert van der Hoek (@GertvanderHoek) Tweeted:
"One confirmed case in Vietnam had no travel history to any part of China but was a family member of a confirmed case who visited Wuhan. This suggests an instance of human to human transmission that occurred in Vietnam".
WHO
China - 2019-nCov cases in several provinces and cities, including confirmed health care workers, at least 25 deaths - FluTrackers News and Information View: https://twitter.com/GertvanderHoek/status/1220826970809868289?s=20
It is already too late and there is nothing TPTB are going to do because they know this too.
jward
passin' thru
Interesting discussion on R.O and it's implications j...
Reflections on Infection Prevention and Control
Novel Coronavirus outbreak, update part 2
marcbonten
Some additonal information, as new data and interpretations are emerging as rapidly as (or even faster than) the virus. In case of an outbreak, one of the most wanted numbers is the R_0, defined as the average number of secondary cases resulting from an infected subject surrounded by susceptibles only, and in the absence of infection control measures. If R_0 is <1, you most probably won’t hear of it, as the disease dies out. If R0>1 there is a chance that an outbreak becomes big, as it will grow as long as there are sufficient susceptible subjects around. The goal of infection control is to bring down an R_0 bigger than 1 to an effective number <1, and keep it there.
As it is a new virus, the whole global population is susceptible. I trust many research groups around the globe are searching internet for epi data to fit their models and to estimate R_0. The first report I saw appeared today and comes from the UK. Published on biomedRXiv, so it did not yet undergo peer review. As it is Friday night, I just quote some statements from the abstract. Data were used until “21 January to estimate key epidemiological measures, and to predict the possible course of the epidemic, as the potential impact of travel restrictions into and from Wuhan.” And their estimate is:
R_0 = 3.8 (95% CI ,3.6-4.0)
If so, indeed the globe is at igh risk for a pandemic. It also indicates “that 72-75% of transmissions must be prevented by control measures for infections to stop increasing.”, i.e. to bring down R_0 to <1.
They also “estimate that only 5.1% (95%CI, 4.8-5.5) of infections in Wuhan are identified, and by 21 January a total of 11,341 people (prediction interval, 9,217-14,245) had been infected in Wuhan since the start of the year.”
Naturally, all predictions are difficult, many uncertainties remain and “findings are critically dependent on the assumptions underpinning our model, and the timing and reporting of confirmed cases, and there is considerable uncertainty associated with the outbreak at this early stage.”
So, what will determine, if this R_0 turns out to be correct, if it can be controlled. A vaccin will do, but will probably be too late. Till then isolation infectious subjects will be key. But whom to isolate? The good news of SARS was that transmission only occurred after onset of symptoms. So immediate isolation at symptom onset probably worked. If the opposite occurs (transmission before symptoms, as in influenza) it might be unstoppable. Eagerly awaiting data on this aspect.
The dramatic measures taken by the Chinese government today and the 1000-bed hospital to build in 10 days, makes me think that we may not know everything yet and, thus, that these estimates might not be that unrealistic. Interesting times.
Reflections on Infection Prevention and Control
Novel Coronavirus outbreak, update part 2
Some additonal information, as new data and interpretations are emerging as rapidly as (or even faster than) the virus. In case of an outbreak, one of the most wanted numbers is the R_0, defined as the average number of secondary cases resulting from an infected subject surrounded by susceptibles only, and in the absence of infection control measures. If R_0 is <1, you most probably won’t hear of it, as the disease dies out. If R0>1 there is a chance that an outbreak becomes big, as it will grow as long as there are sufficient susceptible subjects around. The goal of infection control is to bring down an R_0 bigger than 1 to an effective number <1, and keep it there.
As it is a new virus, the whole global population is susceptible. I trust many research groups around the globe are searching internet for epi data to fit their models and to estimate R_0. The first report I saw appeared today and comes from the UK. Published on biomedRXiv, so it did not yet undergo peer review. As it is Friday night, I just quote some statements from the abstract. Data were used until “21 January to estimate key epidemiological measures, and to predict the possible course of the epidemic, as the potential impact of travel restrictions into and from Wuhan.” And their estimate is:
R_0 = 3.8 (95% CI ,3.6-4.0)
If so, indeed the globe is at igh risk for a pandemic. It also indicates “that 72-75% of transmissions must be prevented by control measures for infections to stop increasing.”, i.e. to bring down R_0 to <1.
They also “estimate that only 5.1% (95%CI, 4.8-5.5) of infections in Wuhan are identified, and by 21 January a total of 11,341 people (prediction interval, 9,217-14,245) had been infected in Wuhan since the start of the year.”
Naturally, all predictions are difficult, many uncertainties remain and “findings are critically dependent on the assumptions underpinning our model, and the timing and reporting of confirmed cases, and there is considerable uncertainty associated with the outbreak at this early stage.”
So, what will determine, if this R_0 turns out to be correct, if it can be controlled. A vaccin will do, but will probably be too late. Till then isolation infectious subjects will be key. But whom to isolate? The good news of SARS was that transmission only occurred after onset of symptoms. So immediate isolation at symptom onset probably worked. If the opposite occurs (transmission before symptoms, as in influenza) it might be unstoppable. Eagerly awaiting data on this aspect.
The dramatic measures taken by the Chinese government today and the 1000-bed hospital to build in 10 days, makes me think that we may not know everything yet and, thus, that these estimates might not be that unrealistic. Interesting times.
Novel Coronavirus outbreak, update part 2
Some additonal information, as new data and interpretations are emerging as rapidly as (or even faster than) the virus. In case of an outbreak, one of the most wanted numbers is the R_0, defined a…
reflectionsipc.com
adgal
Veteran Member
This is a comment from a UK article about the Wuhan Virology lab -
"The virus did not escape from the lab. The guards who were in charge of disposing the dead animals that were tested in the lab sold them to the owner of the seafood restaurant. The owner himself got infected as well."
Read more: US warned virus could 'escape' from lab near coronavirus epicentre
Twitter: Metro (@MetroUK) | Twitter | Facebook: Metro
vector7
Dot Collector
That left a mark.
jward
passin' thru
Yeah. I'm a few hundred miles from a level 4 lab ... N fightin the urge to jump into my space suit
Krayola
Veteran Member
I am really worried about this. I think the main thing that freaks me out is how China is reacting like it is Armageddon, going bananas with the quarantine of millions of people, calling out the army, etc, in spite of how that would affect their economy. Running around in full PPE. They think it's serious.
Now, we find out that some people have it and don't show symptoms. Of the ones that do, many have typical symptoms we all get from cold/flu or a stomach bug. Let that sink in.
If it gets loose here, every one who is sick with any run-of-the-mill cold virus, or stomach malady will be rushing to the E/R because they won't know if it is Kung Flu. Hospitals will be overwhelmed. Oh, and remember this is all happening during one of the worst flu seasons in a decade.
I wish Trump would ban travel from China, at the very least.
Now, we find out that some people have it and don't show symptoms. Of the ones that do, many have typical symptoms we all get from cold/flu or a stomach bug. Let that sink in.
If it gets loose here, every one who is sick with any run-of-the-mill cold virus, or stomach malady will be rushing to the E/R because they won't know if it is Kung Flu. Hospitals will be overwhelmed. Oh, and remember this is all happening during one of the worst flu seasons in a decade.
I wish Trump would ban travel from China, at the very least.
Seeker22
Has No Life - Lives on TB
Oh. My. God!!
This is a comment from a UK article about the Wuhan Virology lab -
"The virus did not escape from the lab. The guards who were in charge of disposing the dead animals that were tested in the lab sold them to the owner of the seafood restaurant. The owner himself got infected as well."
Thank you adgal- scary as hel if true.
This is a comment from a UK article about the Wuhan Virology lab -
"The virus did not escape from the lab. The guards who were in charge of disposing the dead animals that were tested in the lab sold them to the owner of the seafood restaurant. The owner himself got infected as well."
Thank you adgal- scary as hel if true.
pops88
Girls with Guns Member
"R_0 = 3.8 (95% CI ,3.6-4.0) "Interesting discussion on R.O and it's implications j...
Reflections on Infection Prevention and Control
Novel Coronavirus outbreak, update part 2
marcbonten
Some additonal information, as new data and interpretations are emerging as rapidly as (or even faster than) the virus. In case of an outbreak, one of the most wanted numbers is the R_0, defined as the average number of secondary cases resulting from an infected subject surrounded by susceptibles only, and in the absence of infection control measures. If R_0 is <1, you most probably won’t hear of it, as the disease dies out. If R0>1 there is a chance that an outbreak becomes big, as it will grow as long as there are sufficient susceptible subjects around. The goal of infection control is to bring down an R_0 bigger than 1 to an effective number <1, and keep it there.
As it is a new virus, the whole global population is susceptible. I trust many research groups around the globe are searching internet for epi data to fit their models and to estimate R_0. The first report I saw appeared today and comes from the UK. Published on biomedRXiv, so it did not yet undergo peer review. As it is Friday night, I just quote some statements from the abstract. Data were used until “21 January to estimate key epidemiological measures, and to predict the possible course of the epidemic, as the potential impact of travel restrictions into and from Wuhan.” And their estimate is:
R_0 = 3.8 (95% CI ,3.6-4.0)
If so, indeed the globe is at igh risk for a pandemic. It also indicates “that 72-75% of transmissions must be prevented by control measures for infections to stop increasing.”, i.e. to bring down R_0 to <1.
They also “estimate that only 5.1% (95%CI, 4.8-5.5) of infections in Wuhan are identified, and by 21 January a total of 11,341 people (prediction interval, 9,217-14,245) had been infected in Wuhan since the start of the year.”
Naturally, all predictions are difficult, many uncertainties remain and “findings are critically dependent on the assumptions underpinning our model, and the timing and reporting of confirmed cases, and there is considerable uncertainty associated with the outbreak at this early stage.”
So, what will determine, if this R_0 turns out to be correct, if it can be controlled. A vaccin will do, but will probably be too late. Till then isolation infectious subjects will be key. But whom to isolate? The good news of SARS was that transmission only occurred after onset of symptoms. So immediate isolation at symptom onset probably worked. If the opposite occurs (transmission before symptoms, as in influenza) it might be unstoppable. Eagerly awaiting data on this aspect.
The dramatic measures taken by the Chinese government today and the 1000-bed hospital to build in 10 days, makes me think that we may not know everything yet and, thus, that these estimates might not be that unrealistic. Interesting times.
Novel Coronavirus outbreak, update part 2
Some additonal information, as new data and interpretations are emerging as rapidly as (or even faster than) the virus. In case of an outbreak, one of the most wanted numbers is the R_0, defined a…reflectionsipc.com
and
"only 5.1% (95%CI, 4.8-5.5) of infections in Wuhan are identified"
Geeze. Wonder if Amazon sells bubble suits, or if we can expect the .gov to tell us to buy plastic sheeting again so we're (knowingly or unknowingly) purchasing our own body bags. And a 2 week incubation period for something that can present with no or mild symptoms. Not optimistic....