WAR Main Persian Gulf Trouble thread

northern watch

TB Fanatic
US carrier transits Strait of Hormuz amid tensions with Iran
The U.S. Navy says the USS Nimitz aircraft carrier has transited the Strait of Hormuz as tensions between the United States and Iran continue to simmer

By The Associated Press
18 September 2020

In this photo released by the U.S. Navy, the aircraft carrier USS Nimitz transits the Arabian Sea on Aug. 17, 2020. The U.S. Navy searched through the night into the morning of Monday, Sept. 7, 2020, for a sailor who went missing from the aircraft ca

Image Icon
The Associated Press
In this photo released by the U.S. Navy, the aircraft carrier USS Nimitz transits the Arabian Sea on Aug. 17, 2020. The U.S. Navy searched through the night into the morning of Monday, Sept. 7, 2020, for a sailor who went missing from the aircraft carrier USS Nimitz during its patrol of the northern Arabian Sea amid tensions with Iran. (Mass Communication Specialist 3rd Class Elliot Schaudt/U.S. Navy via AP)

DUBAI, United Arab Emirates -- The USS Nimitz aircraft carrier safely transited on Friday through the Strait of Hormuz, the world’s most important chokepoint for oil shipments, the U.S. Navy said, as tensions with Iran continue to simmer.

In a “scheduled” maneuver, the U.S. sent the carrier and several other warships through the strait, the narrow mouth of the Persian Gulf, according to the U.S. Navy’s Bahrain-based 5th fleet. The Nimitz, America’s oldest carrier in active service, carries some 5,000 sailors and Marines.


American aircraft carriers have for decades sailed through the international oil shipping route in what the U.S. describes as “defensive” operations aimed at keeping the strait open.

The show of force follows months of escalating incidents in the crucial waterway, which led earlier this year to an American drone strike that killed a top Iranian general in Baghdad. Tehran responded to that strike by firing ballistic missiles that wounded dozens of American troops in Iraq.

The Nimitz’s arrival in the Mideast saw Iran conduct a live-fire drill targeting a mockup aircraft carrier resembling it, underscoring the lingering threat of military conflict between the countries.

The Nimitz strike group “is at the peak of readiness,” said Rear Adm. Jim Kirk, its commander.

The Nimitz, whose homeport is Bremerton, Washington, has patrolled the Arabian Sea since late July. It replaced the USS Dwight D. Eisenhower, which had spent months in the Arabian Sea on its deployment, breaking the Navy’s previous at-sea record. Navy officials have limited port calls due to the coronavirus pandemic.

 

northern watch

TB Fanatic
UK to expand base in Oman

by Jeremy Binnie
Jane's
14 September 2020

The United Kingdom will invest an additional GBP23.8 million (USD31 million) to expand its logistics hub at the Omani port of Duqm, the UK Ministry of Defence (MoD) announced on 12 September.



fg_3720832-jdw-7917.jpg


The Royal Navy’s HMS Ocean (now the Brazilian Navy’s Atlantico ) and HMS Bulwark in Duqm port to support Exercise ‘Omani Cougar’ in 2016. (Babcock International)

“The investment in the Omani port will triple the size of the existing UK base and help facilitate Royal Navy deployments to the Indian Ocean,” it said.

The announcement was made during a visit to Oman by Secretary of Defence Ben Wallace, who visited both Duqm and the Musandam Peninsula that overlooks the Strait of Hormuz.

The MoD revealed in August 2017 that the UK Joint Logistics Support Base was being constructed at Duqm. The facility was used to support Exercise ‘Saif Sareea 3’ in October-November 2018, which involved British and Omani air, land, and naval forces.

 

jward

passin' thru
Oman becomes first Gulf state to reinstate ambassador in Syria
By Reuters Staff
2 Min Read

DUBAI (Reuters) - Oman has sent an ambassador to Syria, becoming the first Gulf Arab state to do so after they downgraded or shut missions in Damascus in 2012 over attacks by the government there on protests at the start of what turned into a war.

Oman is one of the rare Arab countries that kept diplomatic relations with the Syrian government of President Bashar al-Assad after the 2011 uprising, despite pressure from the United States and other Gulf allies.

Syria’s foreign minister on Sunday accepted the credentials of Oman’s Ambassador Turki bin Mahmood al-Busaidy, appointed to the post in a royal decree in March, state news agency ONA said.


Some Arab states are seeking reconciliation with Damascus after decisive gains by pro-government forces in the conflict, aiming to expand their clout in Syria at the expense of non-Arab Turkey and Iran, who have backed Assad.

Oman, whose Sultan Haitham pledged when assuming power in January to continue maintaining friendly ties with all nations, kept its embassy open, as did Bahrain.

The United Arab Emirates re-opened its mission to Damascus in late 2018 in a diplomatic boost to Assad, and has a charge d’affaires there.


The UAE was one of several regional states to back rebel groups in Syria, though its role was less prominent than those of Saudi Arabia and Qatar, which have so far held off re-establishing ties with Damascus.

Kuwait has said it would re-open its mission in Damascus if there is agreement in the Arab League, which suspended Syria’s membership in 2011.

Assad has recovered control of most of Syria with support from Russia along with Iran -- Riyadh and Abu Dhabi’s foe -- and Iranian-backed Sh’ite Muslim groups such as Lebanon’s Hezbollah.

The United States has imposed new sanctions aimed at cutting off funds for Assad’s government and warned that anyone doing business with Damascus was also at risk of being blacklisted.

Reporting by Ghaida Ghantous, Editing by William Maclean
Our Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.
 

jward

passin' thru
Global: MilitaryInfo
@Global_Mil_Info

39m

U.S. officials to Fox News have said that the United States is warning it will destroy potential Iranian long-range missile shipments delivered to the Maduro regime in Venezuela. - At this hour, there is an IRGC-affiliated Fars Air flight heading directly towards Venezuela.
EP-FAB of Fars Air Qeshm, an Iranian IRGC linked aircraft usually used to carry weapons to Syria is flying westbound over the Mediterranean on an unusual route. No confirmation on its destination but it’s one to keep an eye on. #Iran
EP-FAB an Iranian IRGC linked aircraft, sanctioned by the US that usually transfers weapons to Syria has taken off from Espargos after a second refuelling stop and is now heading westbound across the Atlantic, Venezuela looks to be a likely destination but not yet confirmed.
The fact the aircraft has required 2 fuelling stops indicates that the aircraft is very heavy. When empty the aircraft can technically fly direct from Tehran to South America.
Now approaching Venezuelan airspace.
View: https://twitter.com/ConflictsW/status/1321168123488276483?s=20
 

Housecarl

On TB every waking moment
EP-FAB of Fars Air Qeshm, an Iranian IRGC linked aircraft usually used to carry weapons to Syria is flying westbound over the Mediterranean on an unusual route. No confirmation on its destination but it’s one to keep an eye on. #Iran
EP-FAB an Iranian IRGC linked aircraft, sanctioned by the US that usually transfers weapons to Syria has taken off from Espargos after a second refuelling stop and is now heading westbound across the Atlantic, Venezuela looks to be a likely destination but not yet confirmed.
The fact the aircraft has required 2 fuelling stops indicates that the aircraft is very heavy. When empty the aircraft can technically fly direct from Tehran to South America.
Now approaching Venezuelan airspace.
View: https://twitter.com/ConflictsW/status/1321168123488276483?s=20

The aircraft is listed as being a combination cargo-passenger configuration. Considering its maximum takeoff weight is over 300 tons, that comes out to a lot of SCUD motors.....
 

jward

passin' thru





CNW
@ConflictsW

7h

A great photo from El Pitazo showing the Qeshm Fars Air (EP-FAB) in Caracas Maiquetia, showing the cargo being offloaded on pallets, although I can’t tell exactly what the cargo is (I don’t think it’s missiles) #Venezuela #Iran

1603865980338.png


ElLegadoDelLimitado
@LimitedHangOut1
7h

Missiles come by ship, probably still in Yemen. This is set up needed for them. First set up, then missiles.



ElLegadoDelLimitado
@LimitedHangOut1

6h

Well... they did the same in Syria at the principal airport. They need to pretend it is civil stuff. That's how they operate. Missiles are coming by ship... if they are not neutralized before. In that plane comes components needed for the set up, they will say it is food/medicine
 

Housecarl

On TB every waking moment

CNW
@ConflictsW

7h

A great photo from El Pitazo showing the Qeshm Fars Air (EP-FAB) in Caracas Maiquetia, showing the cargo being offloaded on pallets, although I can’t tell exactly what the cargo is (I don’t think it’s missiles) #Venezuela #Iran
View attachment 228602
ElLegadoDelLimitado
@LimitedHangOut1
7h

Missiles come by ship, probably still in Yemen. This is set up needed for them. First set up, then missiles.
ElLegadoDelLimitado
@LimitedHangOut1

6h

Well... they did the same in Syria at the principal airport. They need to pretend it is civil stuff. That's how they operate. Missiles are coming by ship... if they are not neutralized before. In that plane comes components needed for the set up, they will say it is food/medicine

The missiles smuggled into Houthi territory were not assembled. I suspect the same thing here.
 

jward

passin' thru
The missiles smuggled into Houthi territory were not assembled. I suspect the same thing here.

You are confident these are missiles/components, then? So we have, what, reruns of the spanish flu, ww1, cuban missile crisis, great depression and little ice age converging upon us? Feel as though I must be forgetting something : )
Dang, I can't believe I left CW off the list. Hmm. My dance card is officially full :eek:
 

Housecarl

On TB every waking moment

CNW
@ConflictsW

7h

A great photo from El Pitazo showing the Qeshm Fars Air (EP-FAB) in Caracas Maiquetia, showing the cargo being offloaded on pallets, although I can’t tell exactly what the cargo is (I don’t think it’s missiles) #Venezuela #Iran
View attachment 228602
ElLegadoDelLimitado
@LimitedHangOut1
7h

Missiles come by ship, probably still in Yemen. This is set up needed for them. First set up, then missiles.
ElLegadoDelLimitado
@LimitedHangOut1

6h

Well... they did the same in Syria at the principal airport. They need to pretend it is civil stuff. That's how they operate. Missiles are coming by ship... if they are not neutralized before. In that plane comes components needed for the set up, they will say it is food/medicine

If anything comes by ship, the only way the Iranians can "complicate" an interdiction" is either to escorts the shipment with their own naval ships or ship the cargo on a ship painted navy grey and openly carried on the books as an Iranian naval vessel.
 

jward

passin' thru
Not clear to me when these missiles were seized, or if they would be those used with the delivery of presumed missile set up/component parts that recently landed in Caracas Maiquetia.. sounds like the missiles seized today tho, so. .. .one cubanesque crisis averted?
U.S. seizes Iranian missiles, slaps Iran-related sanctions on 11 entities
By Sarah N. Lynch, Mark Hosenball
2 Min Read


FILE PHOTO: Attendees at the California Convention for a Free Iran wave flags as Iranian Americans converge in Los Angeles, California, U.S., January 11, 2020. REUTERS/ Patrick T. Fallon/File Photo
WASHINGTON (Reuters) -

The United States revealed on Thursday it had seized Iranian missiles shipped to Yemen and sold 1.1 million barrels of previously seized Iranian oil that was bound for Venezuela, in the Trump administration’s latest move to increase pressure on Tehran less than a week before Nov. 3 election.

The unsealing of the forfeiture complaints, by the Justice Department, came at the same time that the Treasury Department and State Department jointly slapped sanctions on a combined 11 different entities and individuals for their involvement in the purchase and sale of Iranian petrochemicals.

The latest actions against Iran come after U.S. intelligence officials earlier this month alleged that Iranian hackers sought to threaten some U.S. voters by sending them spoofed emails that were made to appear as though they were from the pro-Trump Proud Boys group.


Michael Sherwin, the acting U.S. Attorney for the District of Columbia, said on Thursday that the unsealing of the Justice Department’s complaints was “divorced from politics.”

“These actions started last summer. And these are fluid, organic situations,” he said.

The Justice Department’s forfeiture civil cases involve alleged schemes by the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) to secretly ship weapons to Yemen and fuel to Venezuela.


Assistant Attorney General for the National Security Division John Demers said on Thursday that the U.S. government had sold and delivered 1.1 million barrels of Iranian fuel that had been destined for Venezuela, which it had seized earlier this year.

According to the complaint, the fuel originated with firms tied to the IRGC, and shippers took steps to mask ownership. The two vessels carrying the fuel, the Liberia-flagged Euroforce and Singapore-flagged Maersk Progress, had struggled to discharge and shifted course multiple times over the past several weeks.

Reporting by Sarah N. Lynch and Mark Hosenball; Additional reporting by Daphne Psaledakis in Washington and Luc Cohen in New York; Editing by Lisa Shumaker and Steve Orlofsky
Our Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.
 

TammyinWI

Talk is cheap
IRAN
Published 4 days ago
Satellite photos show construction at Iran nuclear site

Heightened tensions between Iran and the U.S. nearly ignited a war at the start of the year

Iran has begun construction at its Natanz nuclear facility, satellite images released Wednesday show, just as the U.N.'s nuclear agency acknowledged Tehran is building an underground advanced centrifuge assembly plant after its last one exploded in a reported sabotage attack last summer.

The construction comes as the U.S. nears Election Day in a campaign pitting President Trump, whose maximum pressure campaign against Iran has led Tehran to abandon all limits on its atomic program, and Joe Biden, who has expressed a willingness to return to the accord. The outcome of the vote likely will decide which approach America takes. Heightened tensions between Iran and the U.S. nearly ignited a war at the start of the year.

Since August, Iran has built a new or regraded road to the south of Natanz toward what analysts believe is a former firing range for security forces at the enrichment facility, images from San Francisco-based Planet Labs show. A satellite image Monday shows the site cleared away with what appears to be construction equipment there.

Analysts from the James Martin Center for Nonproliferation Studies at the Middlebury Institute of International Studies say they believe that site is undergoing excavation.

AP20302238062522.jpg

This Monday, Oct. 26, 2020, satellite image from Planet Labs Inc. that has been annotated by experts at the James Martin Center for Nonproliferation Studies at Middlebury Institute of International Studies shows construction at Iran's Natanz uranium-enrichment facility that experts believe may be a new, underground centrifuge assembly plant. Satellite photos show Iran has begun construction at its Natanz nuclear facility. That's after the head of the U.N.’s nuclear agency acknowledged Tehran is building an underground advanced centrifuge assembly plant after its last one exploded in a reported sabotage attack last summer. (Planet Labs Inc. via AP)

“That road also goes into the mountains so it may be the fact that they’re digging some kind of structure that’s going to be out in front and that there’s going to be a tunnel in the mountains," said Jeffrey Lewis, an expert at the institute who studies Iran's nuclear program. "Or maybe that they’re just going to bury it there.”

Iran's mission to the United Nations did not immediately respond to a request for comment. Ali Akbar Salehi, the head of the Atomic Energy Organization of Iran, last month told state television the destroyed above-ground facility was being replaced with one “in the heart of the mountains around Natanz.”

Rafael Grossi, the director-general of the International Atomic Energy Agency, told The Associated Press on Tuesday that his inspectors were aware of the construction. He said Iran had previously informed IAEA inspectors, who continue to have access to Iran's sites despite the collapse of the nuclear deal.

“It means that they have started, but it’s not completed. It’s a long process," Grossi said.

 

Housecarl

On TB every waking moment
Posted for fair use.....

Iran's Air Force. Photo Credit: Tasnim News Agency

Iran's Air Force. Photo Credit: Tasnim News Agency​


Iran: Air Force To Launch War Games
November 2, 2020 Tasnim News Agency 0 Comments

By Tasnim News Agency


The Islamic Republic of Iran Air Force (IRIAF) is going to stage a military exercise in the central province of Isfahan.

The main stage of the ninth edition of the annual aerial drill, codenamed Fadayeeyan Harim Velayat, will begin in Isfahan on Monday, Air Force Commander Brigadier General Aziz Nasirzadeh said.

The commander said units from seven air bases will take part in the two-day exercise, which includes a broad range of fighter jets, bombers, transport aircraft, tanker aircraft, interceptors, reconnaissance planes, and drones.

Various types of homegrown UAVs equipped with smart long-range bombs, ammunition with pinpoint accuracy, and radar jammers would fly in the war game, he noted.

The commander added that the upcoming drill will involve modern warfare tactics to practice countering the emerging threats.

Iran’s Armed Forces hold routine military exercises throughout the year.

Iranian officials have repeatedly underscored that the country will not hesitate to strengthen its military capabilities, including its missile power, which are entirely meant for defense, and that Iran’s defense capabilities will be never subject to negotiations.
 

jward

passin' thru
Are Israel and the US planning to attack Iran?
An Israeli strike against Iran is extremely complicated and has always been viewed in the IDF as a last resort.
By YAAKOV KATZ
NOVEMBER 13, 2020 14:19

Email Twitter Facebook fb-messenger

IAF, USAF hold joint F-35 drill in southern Israel (photo credit: IAF)


IAF, USAF hold joint F-35 drill in southern Israel

(photo credit: IAF)



In 2008, after the election that brought Barack Obama to power, in Israel there were some officials who were confident that President George W. Bush would not leave office with Iran’s nuclear facilities still standing. They were wrong. Iran’s nuclear facilities are not only still standing; they have grown in quality and quantity.

This is important to keep in mind amid speculation - once again during a presidential lame duck period – that in his last few weeks in office, Donald Trump will either order US military action against Iran or give Israel a green light as well as some assistance to do it on its own.


The speculation has a number of catalysts. First was the firing of Mark Esper as secretary of defense this past week and the replacement of him and other top Pentagon officials with Trump idealogues. Some media in the US have raised the possibility that Trump wanted to get Esper out of the way, so he could more easily carry out controversial military moves.

In addition, there is no doubt a lot of coordination already taking place on Iran. Elliott Abrams, the administration’s top envoy on Iran, was in Israel this week for talks with Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu; Secretary of State Mike Pompeo will be here next week for three days to continue those conversations; and on Thursday night, IDF Chief of Staff Lt.-Gen. Aviv Kochaviheld a video call with his US counterpart, Chairman of the Joint Chiefs General Mark Milley.

And then there was the interview H.R. McMaster, Trump’s former national security adviser, gave Fox News on Wednesday in which he raised the possibility that Israel – fearful of President-elect Joe Biden’s Iran policies – would attack Iran in the twilight of Trump’s term in office.

For veteran Israel-Iran watchers, this feels like a rerun of what happened in 2008 as well as in 2012 when also then Israel seemed on the verge of an attack. While ministers later confirmed that Netanyahu had in fact wanted to launch an attack in 2012, he ultimately failed to muster support in the cabinet and the IDF and had no choice but to back down.

This is all important to keep in mind amid the current speculation. While anything is possible – especially with Trump – there does not seem to be an immediate urgency right now to attack.



There are also no signs of activity in the IDF that would indicate a possible war like beefing up forces in the North or preparing the home front for the missile onslaught that will likely follow. On the other hand, we should not necessarily expect to see moves that would give away a strike in the planning. In 2007, ahead of Israel’s bombing of Syria’s nuclear reactor, almost no one knew about it within the IDF, let alone throughout the country.

When it comes to the sense of urgency, while the International Atomic Energy Agency’s report this week about Iran’s growing uranium stockpile is concerning, Iran is still not at the point that it is building a bomb since it is not yet enriching uranium to military grade levels. If that were to happen, the clock would definitely start ticking toward a possible bombing but absent such enrichment – or some other piece of secret intelligence that the public is not aware of – there does not seem to be an immediate reason to attack right now.

Keep in mind, that an Israeli strike against Iran is extremely complicated and has always been viewed in the IDF as a last resort. The threat is just not yet at the point that would warrant a military strike.

And then there are politics. Netanyahu has enough trouble heading into a new election campaignthat has a good chance of starting sometime in the coming week or two. His management of the coronavirus crisis has weakened him and his popularity ratings are falling. A war with thousands of rockets raining down all across Israel will probably not help.

Despite all the above, it is important to keep in mind that almost anything is possible when dealing with these two leaders – Trump and Netanyahu – who are unpredictable and willing to do a lot to stay relevant and in office.


posted for fair use
 

northern watch

TB Fanatic
Are Israel and the US planning to attack Iran?
An Israeli strike against Iran is extremely complicated and has always been viewed in the IDF as a last resort.
By YAAKOV KATZ
NOVEMBER 13, 2020 14:19

Email Twitter Facebook fb-messenger

IAF, USAF hold joint F-35 drill in southern Israel (photo credit: IAF)


IAF, USAF hold joint F-35 drill in southern Israel

(photo credit: IAF)



In 2008, after the election that brought Barack Obama to power, in Israel there were some officials who were confident that President George W. Bush would not leave office with Iran’s nuclear facilities still standing. They were wrong. Iran’s nuclear facilities are not only still standing; they have grown in quality and quantity.

This is important to keep in mind amid speculation - once again during a presidential lame duck period – that in his last few weeks in office, Donald Trump will either order US military action against Iran or give Israel a green light as well as some assistance to do it on its own.


The speculation has a number of catalysts. First was the firing of Mark Esper as secretary of defense this past week and the replacement of him and other top Pentagon officials with Trump idealogues. Some media in the US have raised the possibility that Trump wanted to get Esper out of the way, so he could more easily carry out controversial military moves.

In addition, there is no doubt a lot of coordination already taking place on Iran. Elliott Abrams, the administration’s top envoy on Iran, was in Israel this week for talks with Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu; Secretary of State Mike Pompeo will be here next week for three days to continue those conversations; and on Thursday night, IDF Chief of Staff Lt.-Gen. Aviv Kochaviheld a video call with his US counterpart, Chairman of the Joint Chiefs General Mark Milley.

And then there was the interview H.R. McMaster, Trump’s former national security adviser, gave Fox News on Wednesday in which he raised the possibility that Israel – fearful of President-elect Joe Biden’s Iran policies – would attack Iran in the twilight of Trump’s term in office.

For veteran Israel-Iran watchers, this feels like a rerun of what happened in 2008 as well as in 2012 when also then Israel seemed on the verge of an attack. While ministers later confirmed that Netanyahu had in fact wanted to launch an attack in 2012, he ultimately failed to muster support in the cabinet and the IDF and had no choice but to back down.

This is all important to keep in mind amid the current speculation. While anything is possible – especially with Trump – there does not seem to be an immediate urgency right now to attack.



There are also no signs of activity in the IDF that would indicate a possible war like beefing up forces in the North or preparing the home front for the missile onslaught that will likely follow. On the other hand, we should not necessarily expect to see moves that would give away a strike in the planning. In 2007, ahead of Israel’s bombing of Syria’s nuclear reactor, almost no one knew about it within the IDF, let alone throughout the country.

When it comes to the sense of urgency, while the International Atomic Energy Agency’s report this week about Iran’s growing uranium stockpile is concerning, Iran is still not at the point that it is building a bomb since it is not yet enriching uranium to military grade levels. If that were to happen, the clock would definitely start ticking toward a possible bombing but absent such enrichment – or some other piece of secret intelligence that the public is not aware of – there does not seem to be an immediate reason to attack right now.

Keep in mind, that an Israeli strike against Iran is extremely complicated and has always been viewed in the IDF as a last resort. The threat is just not yet at the point that would warrant a military strike.

And then there are politics. Netanyahu has enough trouble heading into a new election campaignthat has a good chance of starting sometime in the coming week or two. His management of the coronavirus crisis has weakened him and his popularity ratings are falling. A war with thousands of rockets raining down all across Israel will probably not help.

Despite all the above, it is important to keep in mind that almost anything is possible when dealing with these two leaders – Trump and Netanyahu – who are unpredictable and willing to do a lot to stay relevant and in office.


posted for fair use

Better do it before Biden takes over!
 

Housecarl

On TB every waking moment
I expect to see this and sister ships lurking in the Caribbean or other places of US "interest" in the very near future.......

Posted for fair use.....

Iranian-IRGC-Forward-Base-Shahid-Roudaki
Sat 21 November 2020 By H I Sutton

Shahid-Roudaki

The IRGC's Newest And Most Powerful Warship: A Balanced Look
Flag
Iran's IRGC (Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps) has a reputation for hyperbolic military claims. Their latest asset, Shahid Roudaki isa merchant ship repurposed as a forward operating base. It has been subject of excited reporting in Iranian Media. There is much about it which is open to challenge. Yet behind all the noise, there are potential serious implications. the IRGC is evolving its capabilities, particularly in power projection.

So, as always there are two things to do. A) break through the propaganda and knee-jerk reactions, from both promotors and detractors. B) Step back and take a balanced look at the real impact on IRGC capabilities.

Iran may have two or three Sea Base ships shortly, depending on whether Saviz is retired.
  • Saviz, stationed in the Red Sea. Nominally civilian but strongly suspected to be operated by the IRGC for intelligence and support of Houthi forces in Yemen. See Covert Shores and USNI
  • Shahid Roudaki
  • A new 230m long ship being converted. See below.
The Hype
Shahid Roudaki was paraded for the media with an assorted array of weapon systems aboard. These included four interceptor boats with multiple launch rocket systems (MLRS). A mobile launcher for the 3rd Khordad surface-to-air missile system. A Bell 412 helicopter, six Ababil-2 drones and two small quadrotor drones. And four twin Qader anti-ship missile launchers. It looked impressive but several systems were on trailers, just parked for display. Do they represent real capabilities?

The Qader anti-ship missile launchers appear bolted to the deck. This is an Iranian version of the Noor missile, which is itself based on the Chinese C-802 family. The C-802 family s a respectable anti-ship missile which has been used in combat. However the radar for this system appears to be a 2031 road-mobile system. It is parked on the deck which offers a relatively short radar horizon and also a limited arc of coverage. If the missiles are a permanent fit we should expect to see the radar attached to the superstructure in the normal way.


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The interceptor boats are typical of those used by the IRGC-N (N for navy). Their other forward operating base, the Saviz, also has small boats aboard. But the boats are on trailers and there doesn't seem to be a crane for putting them over the side. again they were parked there to give the impression. In reality Shahid Roudaki may need modifications for launch and recovery. Possibly they would only be aboard for transportation to a forward operating base in a port.
Shahid-Roudaki

The air defenses are questionable. A single 3rd Khordad launcher does arguably eclipse the air defenses of regular Iranian Navy warships, but it may be difficult to use.

The drones are more credible. These could be launched from the deck and represent a favored capability of the IRGC. The quadrotors would be short ranged but still have some utility.

See more images of her HERE
What does she bring to the IRGC?
The IRGC is a ideological force separate from Iran's regular military. It was founded in 1979 following the revolution and played an active role in the Iran-Iraq War of the 1980s. It has grown in power and eminence since and now rivals the Army and Navy in some respects. The naval branch, IRGC-N, is an asymmetrical force. Until now focused on the shallow waters of the Persian Gulf. For this it relies on large numbers of comparatively unsophisticated systems. More recently it has fielded increasing numbers of anti-ship missiles, and even a unique catamaran. The Shahid Roudaki is the largest declared warship to date (declared because Saviz is larger).

Shahid Roudaki therefore represents and increase in capability for the IRGC-N. It extends its range out into the Indian Ocean and Red Sea. But without escort from the Iranian Navy it would be a sitting duck in a shooting war (although it is questionable how much protection the Iranian Navy offers anyway). So it is really a ship for limited war scenarios.

But that doesn't make it useless. In fact while the IRGC-N has been limited to local operations in the Persian Gulf, the IRGC as a whole is active further afield. They have interests in Syria for example. So she may turn up in the Mediterranean to support IRGC efforts ashore. Or provide intelligence to proxy forces in conflicts which Iran is technically not involved in (per the Saviz in Yemen).

CLICK for HIGH-RESOLUTION image.
The IRGC's activities abroad are generally covert, although their involvement in Syria has become more overt. But having this gray-painted Forward Base ship signals that the winds are changing. The IRGC is likely to play a more visible role in future conflicts. Or in supporting foreign regimes, or distributing 'aid' for example. And we should also consider whether a gray ship will be better for arms supply to isolated regimes. These angles need more consideration.

Therefore, while the ship itself may be less impressive than the propaganda surrounding her, she does represent a new capability for the IRGC. And one which they may put into practice very soon.


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Shahid-Roudaki

Galaxy F, merchant ship
Although described by Iranian media as a "homegrown oceangoing warship", Jane's analysts have provisionally identified her as the GALAXY F which was built in Italy. GALAXY F was a roll-on/roll-off container ship which was recently up for sale. According to data from MarineTraffic, the ship left IR ISOICO, west of Bandar Abbas in Iran on August 21. It was destined for Singapore, to return to Bandar Abbas. The OSINT picture on her movements is currently a bit muddied and we cannot say for certain, at this stage, that it is her. But GALAXY F is a strong candidate and even if not, the design is essentially identical.

GALAXY F, Panamanian Flagged, IMO: 9048471, MMSI: 371544000
Vessel Type: Ro-Ro/Container Carrier
Year Built: 1992
Gross Tonnage: 8,707
Summer DWT: 8,924 t
Length Overall: 150.01 m (492 ft)
Beam: 21.6 m (71 ft)
Shahid Roudaki's sister ship  Alexandr Tkachenko

Shahid Roudaki's smaller sister ship Alexandr Tkachenko (now ISLAND EXPRESS, IMO 8716954) has been charted by the Russian Govenment. It is seen here delivering vehicles to the Russian armed forces in Tartus. Photo by Yörük Işık
 

northern watch

TB Fanatic
Massive Armada Of IRGC Boats Mobilize In Gulf Amid Rumors Israeli Strike Imminent

by Tyler Durden
Zero Hedge
Thursday, 11/26/2020 - 18:45

The naval forces of the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) on Thursday conducted large-scale exercises in the Strait of Hormuz at a moment Tehran believes Israel will launch a preemptive strike aimed at drawing Trump into ordering US military action in the region before he leaves office in January.

Via IRNA/Press TV
According to state-run English language PressTV, "The event saw sailors, enlisted with the popular volunteer Basij force, taking to the waters aboard more than 1,000 light and semi-heavy-lift vessels."

Photos showed an impressive number of small but fast military boats that are typically used by the IRGC Navy (which is separate from the much larger national navy of the Islamic Republic) to harass and encircle larger ships, whether tankers or foreign warships.

Via IRNA/Press TV

IRGC Admiral Ali Reza Tangsiri, who oversaw the maneuvers, called it a display of strength and a showcasing of Iran's "maritime power" which provides security in the Arabian and Oman Seas.

Crucially the 'show of force' comes amid widespread reports that Trump is mulling some of kind of preemptive action against either Iran or its regional allies, such as the powerful Shia militias in Iraq.

Earlier this month The New York Times reported that Trump's advisers talked him down from ordering a strike, which they argued would certainly spiral into a larger war.


Included in the "strike options" were most likely plans to hit the Natanz enrichment facility, according to the report, which suffered sabotage and damage last summer in a likely Israeli covert operation but which is being repaired and rebuilt.

Israel too is said to be preparing for such a scenario, with its armed forces said to be in a high state of readiness. Iran is apparently taking these reports very seriously.

Axios reported Wednesday based on unnamed senior Israeli sources:
The Israel Defense Forces have in recent weeks been instructed to prepare for the possibility that the U.S. will conduct a military strike against Iran before President Trump leaves office.

Middle East war correspondent for Al Rai Media, Elijah Magnier has cited unnamed Iranian military sources who say they believe Israeli leaders are planning to create a "pretext" designed to trigger US intervention just weeks before the inauguration of Joe Biden:

In an unprecedentedly high level of military readiness, the "Axis of the Resistance" led by Iran has declared a maximum alert on all fronts, as a preparation for a possible battle or war breaking out in the Middle East prior to the arrival in office of President-elect Joe Biden.

Sources within the "Axis of the Resistance" say that "the US may not be planning for a war against Iran with President Donald Trump leaving office soon. However, it is not excluded that the "bully of the neighborhood", Prime Minister Benyamin Netanyahu, would like to carry out a swift hit on the Iranian nuclear facilities in order to sabotage the nuclear deal ready for when Biden takes over. In the case of an Israeli bombing followed by an Iranian retaliation, the Trump administration can then intervene with the pretext of "defending" Israel.
This means that it's more than likely we'll see Iran ramp up its military exercises and shows of strength as the weeks wind down on the Trump presidency.


Massive Armada Of IRGC Boats Mobilize In Gulf Amid Rumors Israeli Strike Imminent | Zero Hedge
 
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