WAR Regional conflict brewing in the Mediterranean

danielboon

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Italy to contact Turkey, Russia, US over Libya tensions
WORLDAnadolu Agency
Published December 18,2019
ITALY TO CONTACT TURKEY, RUSSIA, US OVER LIBYA TENSIONS
AP File Photo

Italy's foreign minister said Tuesday his country is ready to hold talks with Turkey, Russia and the U.S. on finding a solution to the ongoing crisis in Libya.
"Italy is ready to work to find a diplomatic solution to the Libyan crisis," Luigi Di Maio told reporters at Rome's Ciampino Airport after his return from Libya.
Di Maio said he was set to phone his counterparts from the U.S., Russia and Turkey.
"I will also phone my German, French and British counterparts," he added.
Di Maio visited Libya earlier in the day and held separate talks in Tripoli and Benghazi with Fayez al-Sarraj, head of the UN-recognized Government of National Accord (GNA), and commander Khalifa Haftar.
On April 4, Haftar -- leader of the eastern Libyan forces -- launched an offensive to capture the capital Tripoli from GNA forces.
According to UN data, over a thousand people have been killed since the start of the operation and more than 5,000 injured.
Since the ouster and death of ruler Muammar Gaddafi in 2011, two seats of power have emerged in Libya: one in eastern Libya supported mainly by Egypt and the United Arab Emirates and another in Tripoli, which enjoys UN and international recognition.
www.anews.com.tr

Italy to contact Turkey, Russia, US over Libya tensions

Italy to contact Turkey, Russia, US over Libya tensions
www.anews.com.tr www.anews.com.tr
 
danielboon

danielboon

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Turkey vows to do whatever required in int'l arena
'If necessary, Turkey sends troops, drills in East Mediterranean, launches cross-border op.,' says country's vice president
Turkey's VP Fuat Oktay

Turkey reiterated its commitment to do whatever it needs to do in the international arena, Turkish vice president said on Tuesday.
"If necessary, Turkey sends troops, drills in the East Mediterranean and launches cross-border operation, it does whatever is required", Fuat Oktay told the lawmakers during his 2020 budget speech in the Turkish parliament.
"We are only accountable to our nation," Oktay said, referring to some claims.
Turkey acts in accordance with the country's interests, he added.
www.yenisafak.com

Turkey vows to do whatever required in int'l arena | Politics

'If necessary, Turkey sends troops, drills in East Mediterranean, launches cross-border op.,' says country's vice president
www.yenisafak.com www.yenisafak.com
 
danielboon

danielboon

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December 17, 2019
The Turkish Intervention In Libya Might Lead To A War With Egypt
The Turkish President Erdogan continues to create enemies for Turkey.

After waging a war on Syria, he has managed to piss off the EU by pushing refugees towards it. He has displeased NATO and the U.S. by installing Russian air defenses. Most Arab countries at the Persian Gulf hate him for his support for Qatar.

Erdogan has allied himself with the Government of National Accord (GNA) that rules in Tripoli, Libya. He will now have to take on several additional countries which support the GNA's opponent.

After the NATO war destroyed Africa's richest country Libya is still split.

libyamap20191217-s.jpg

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Most of the east and the south and most of the oil of the country is ruled by General Khalifa Haftar, a former CIA asset. Haftar has support from the UAE, Saudi Arabia, Egypt and Russia. A U.S. delegation recently visited him. Nine month ago he started a campaign to eliminate the Muslim Brotherhood controlled GNA around Tripoli and Misrata.

The campaign got stuck even as each side continued to put more and better material onto the ground and into the air. Pilots flying for Haftar are allegedly from the UAE and Egypt. The GNA flies Turkish drones which are likely controlled by Turkish pilots. There are also rumors that Russian mercenaries are involved in support of Haftar.

Both sides lack well trained ground troops in sufficient numbers. At the end of November Erdogan offered a rather curious agreement to the GNA. In exchange for troops from Turkey the GNA would have to agree to a common maritime border between Libya and Turkey.

Fayez al-Sarraj, the Chairman of the Presidential Council of Libya and prime minister of the GNA, agreed. That resulted in this curious map.

ltseamap1-s.jpg

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Erdogan then claimed that Turkey has the sole right to economically explore the Mediterranean Sea north of the red and yellow line. He also said that pipelines laid through that area would need Turkish agreement. Egypt, Israel and Cyprus had planned a gas pipeline between their sub sea gas explorations and Greece. (That pipeline is likely a pipe dream as there is too little gas for sale to justify the large investment.)

There have already been intense spats between Cyprus, Israel and Turkey over Turkish drill ships which, accompanied by the Turkish Navy, intruded into Cyprus' exclusive economic zone.

Nautical borders in areas of multiple states can not be drawn unilaterally or by just two parties. The area Erdogan claims is to a large part also claimed by Cyprus and Greece which both have better arguments for legal rights in the area than Turkey.

ltseamap2-s.jpg

Source: Petroleum Economist - bigger
There is another legal problem. The Sikhirat agreement, which was signed in December 2015 under UN auspices and is the legal basis for the GNA, does not give GNA head Sarraj any right to make such an agreement and concession.

The conflict over exclusive economic rights in certain areas can probably be solved at the UN or through international courts. The military part of Erdogan's deal is the real danger:

The deal offers Turkish support for the establishment of a Quick Reaction Force for police and military in Libya, as well as enhanced cooperation in intelligence and in the defense industry. Following the military cooperation deal, Erdoğan said Ankara might consider sending troops to Libya if the Libyan government requested military assistance.
Click to expand...
A week ago Erdogan said that he was ready to deploy troops to Libya on short notice. Today rumors appeared in Arab media, still unconfirmed, that Turkish special operations forces landed in Tripoli.

The Libyan war between two Libyan parties will now become a very different beast. Egypt will not tolerate a Muslim Brotherhood led Libya as its neighbor. Egypt will intervene before the Turkish support allows the GNA government to defeat Haftar. The situation could then develop into an intense war during which Turkish troops fight on Libyan grounds against the Egyptian military.

Both countries have rich Arab sponsors who can finance a long and intense conflict. Both have lots of matériel and many many soldiers they can throw into the fight. The Egyptian side has one advantage. Its long land border allows for easy resupply while Turkey will have to rely on supplies that come by sea and air and can be cut off or at least interrupted.

Such a war could easily become the major international crisis of 2020.

Posted by b on December 17, 2019 at 18:53 UTC | Permalink

 
danielboon

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Log





EndGameWW3

@EndGameWW3

CG_ADM The Defense Council of Egypt said hours ago that any ships or Turkish military aircraft in Libya , will be destroyed. This is Egypt's first open threat to Turkey in the face of tensions between the two countries.
Quote Tweet

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Conflitos e Guerras

@ConflitoeGuerrA
· 18m
CG_ADM O Conselho de Defesa do #Egito, disse horas atrás, que qualquer navios ou avião militar turco na #Líbia, serão destruídos Essa é a primeira ameaça aberta do Egito para a #Turquia diante das tensões entre os dois países. #Libya #Egypt #TurkishArmy #Tripoli
5:12 PM · Dec 18, 2019·
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danielboon

danielboon

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Libyan Cossack

@AgEnTX19

As anticipated earlier, #LNA airstrike on #Misrata Air College. Earlier today, a 747 flew from #Turkey into Misrata bringing weapons to #GNA militants. #Libya #ليبيا
Quote Tweet

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ابن ليبيا السرتاوي



@MstrMax11
· 2h
سلاح الجو القوات المسلحة العربية الليبية يقصف الكلية الجوية مصراتة ( التركية ) الآن
4:59 PM · Dec 18, 2019·
https://mobile.twitter.com/AgEnTX19/status/1207420220274552832/retweets
https://mobile.twitter.com/AgEnTX19/status/1207420220274552832/likes
 
danielboon

danielboon

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Health Ministry activates emergency and response plan in Greater Tripoli
December 18, 2019
pic1171747.jpg

The Ministry of Health has announced the activation of the emergency preparedness and response plan, in health centers of Great Tripoli municipalities.
In a statement Monday, the ministry explained that the plan will include enhancing drug stocks and strategic medical supplies, as well as the emergency referral system in Tripoli hospitals, including Tajoura Heart Centre and Mitiga Hospital.
The plan aims to raise the capacity of hospitals in the event of an increase in cases, in relation to Haftar's aggression on Tripoli, according to the ministry.
 
danielboon

danielboon

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NEWS /LIBYA1576765176917.jpeg
Libya's GNA accepts Turkish offer for military support: Sources
UN-recognised government in Tripoli says it will boost cooperation with Ankara, sources tell Al Jazeera.
11 minutes ago


Libya's United Nations-recognised government has accepted an offer from Turkey for military and logistical support as it seeks to repel an offensive led by forces loyal to renegade General Khalifa Haftar, sources say.
The Tripoli-based Government of National Accord (GNA) on Thursday moved to put in action a security accord brokered with Ankara in November, Al Jazeera's Mahmoud Abdelwahed reported from the Libyan capital, citing sources withing the GNA.
More:
"We are getting news from sources with the GNA in Tripoli after a very important meeting between government officials and military commanders … involved with defending the capital from Haftar's forces," Abdelwahed said.
"They say they are now putting in action the memorandum of understanding that was sealed between the UN-recognised Prime Minister Fayez al-Sarraj and the Turkish President Reccep Tayep Erdogan to entail military and security cooperation," he added.
Last month, the GNA and Turkey signed a deal on maritime boundaries, angering Greece, and another pact on military cooperation.
The GNA controls Tripoli, situated in northwestern Libya, while Haftar's self-styled Libyan National Army (LNA) is allied to a parallel administration based in the east of the oil-rich country.
Haftar's forces in April launched a campaign to wrestle control of the capital in April but have been unable to break through the GNA's defences. Last week, Haftar said that a "decisive battle" to capture the city would commence imminently.
Turkish officials have previously said Ankara may send troops to Libya if the GNA requested it, but Foreign Minister Mevlut Cavusoglu said on Saturday that no such request had been made yet.
On Wednesday, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan said his government was ready to help the GNA.
"We will speed up the process between Turkey and Libya. We told them that we are always ready to help if they need it. From military and security cooperation, to steps taken regarding our maritime rights - we are ready," he was cited as saying by broadcaster NTV.
Libya splintered into a patchwork of competing power bases following the NATO-backed overthrow of former leader Muammar Gaddafi in 2011. Libya's GNA accepts Turkish offer for military support: Sources
 
danielboon

danielboon

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Turkish jets trigger 16 mock dogfights


TAGS:Defense

Turkey ratcheted up tensions in the Aegean on Tuesday with Turkish jets conducting multiple violations of Greek airspace, leading to 16 mock dogfights, and Turkish Vice President Fuat Oktay declaring that Ankara could send forces to the Eastern Mediterranean.
Turkish jets conducted 40 airspace violations, obliging Greek jets to engage in mock dogfights on 16 occasions, Greek defense sources said.
The barrage of violations was believed to have been spurred by comments by Greek Defense Minister Nikos Panagiotopoulos, according to which Greece has military supremacy in the Aegean.
Also on Tuesday there were reports of five Turkish Navy vessels south of Kastellorizo.
Oktay added fuel to the fire by saying that, “if necessary, Turkey will send forces, drill in the Eastern Mediterranean [and] conduct cross-border operations.”
www.ekathimerini.com

Turkish jets trigger 16 mock dogfights | eKathimerini.com

Turkey ratcheted up tensions in the Aegean on Tuesday with Turkish jets conducting multiple violations of Greek airspace, leading to 16 mock dogfights, and Turkish Vice President Fuat Oktay declaring that Ankara could send forces to the Eastern Mediterranean.
www.ekathimerini.com www.ekathimerini.com
 
H

Housecarl

On TB every waking moment
This can go so hot so quick as to shift from a fire metaphor to a nuclear chain reaction metaphor....
 
H

Housecarl

On TB every waking moment
Besides the already noted logistical advantage Egypt has in this brewing mess, and note the very interesting mix of players and sides in this as well, if Cairo wants to get real sporty, they've got a huge supply of un and under employed military age males they can "recruit", equip with Egyptian made gear, truck across the border and get at it, and that option then could be applied to other regional "points of concern". Talk about snowballing....
 
N

night driver

ESFP adrift in INTJ sea
Hours is NOT out of the question, nor is INITIAL action/reaction running in the half hour realm out of the question. If all they want is an initial Propaganda beachhead, half an hour gives Cairo that. and they have enough hot reaction forces to create that beachhead AND reinforce it within an hour or two.

(Yah. I played RISK as a kid)

The reactions at that point become minute by minute.
 
jward

jward

passin' thru
Funny you mention RISK, as I am stumped in the game, and almost frustrated nuff to ask you good folk bout it.
& Thnx for the discourse re: timing and the decision making process... I think I may have to break out the toy soldiers and white board for real in order to keep all these moving pieces straight.
 
P

Plain Jane

Just Plain Jane

Zerohedge

ZeroHedge - On a long enough timeline, the survival rate for everyone drops to zero
www.zerohedge.com www.zerohedge.com

Turkey To Establish Military Base In Libya As Egypt Threatens Its Own Intervention
Profile picture for user Tyler Durden
by Tyler Durden
Thu, 12/19/2019 - 13:40
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Turkey's involvement in the ongoing Libyan war between Benghazi-based General Khalifa Haftar and the UN-recognized Tripoli GNA government is set to grow.
Following a recent military agreement between Turkey and Tripoli, and as Haftar's forces threaten attack on any Turkish plane or ship, it's expected the Turkish military will set up a base in the war-torn country. Middle East Monitor reports of the latest developments:
Turkey is set to establish a military base in Libya, according to Turkish media reports earlier this week, as President Recep Tayyip weighs up the possibility of intervention in the country’s civil war.
Yeni Shafak reported on Monday that the Foreign Affairs Committee of the Turkish parliament had approved a recent agreement between Turkey and Libya on military cooperation. It also includes provisions for launching a “quick reaction force” if requested by the Libyan government.
Click to expand...
Turkish special forces file image, via Pinterest.

The
exact location for the proposed base has not been revealed, but it will likely be in the vicinity of Tripoli, given that's where they key front line fighting has been as part of Haftar's LNA forces offensive on the capital.
The deal was initially touted by Ankara as primarily for oil and gas exploration off Libya's coast and in the eastern Mediterranean, but was later revealed to include close military cooperation agreements.
Addressing the controversial deal in statements made early this week President Erdogan told a pro-government news channel, "We will be defending the rights of Libya and Turkey in the Eastern Mediterranean." Already there are unconfirmed reports in Arabic media that Turkish special forces have landed in Tripoli.
But crucially, neighboring Egypt, which has long backed east Libyan strongman Haftar, has condemned the Turkey-Tripoli GNA deal as "illegitimate" and has even signaled its own military intervention could come.

On Tuesday, Egyptian President Abdel Fattah el-Sisi warned in the wake of the Turkey-Libya agreement, "We will not allow anyone to control Libya... it is a matter of Egyptian national security."

Given the heightened proxy war nature of the conflict, now threatening to draw in regional powers angered over what they see as illegal Turkish incursion in their own backyard, some geopolitical observers are warning of a new war between Egypt and Libya, with Turkish military involvement.
Ironically, throughout this build-up a UN arms embargo has remained in effect on all warring sides of Libya; however, clearly few are paying much attention to this, especially the UAE, Egypt, and Turkey.
 
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