Kris, you are not factoring in sequential infection zones.
The first zone is the actual apartment. We have five potential cases out of there.
The second zone is the apartment complex. WE have one potential case from there.
The third zone is the hospital, the Emergency room, the patient room and all the medical people. We have 3 confirmed cases out of that, Duncan and the two nurses.
The fourth infection zone is the nurse flying to Cleveland and back. We have several hundred potential cases out of that.
The fifth infection zone is the cruise ship. We have 4,000 potential cases from there.
Kris, we could see DOZENS of additional cases of Ebola depending on how long various people were exposing other people.
I agree we will likely know by Thanksgiving, but the potential for several hundred Ebola cases by then is definitely there.
Doug, "Potential" doesn't mean crap until there is an actual new infection. You are living and dying by SPECULATION.
The immediate family falls off the radar at midnight tonight when their 21 days are over. If there are no infections in that group, and I do not expect any then those folks are removed from the list.
The apartment complex is a very, very low possibility. Not zero but so close that it might as well be.
The HCW in Dallas are the most likely to still have another one pop up but that risk goes down daily the further we get into the 21 days from Duncan, from Pham and from Vinson....which are all different dates depending on who worked when and who they came in contact with along the way. Some of those HCW will be cleared and falling off the list daily for the next 10-15 days.
In the "Identify, Isolate and Contain" protocol, all primary contacts of Duncan and the 2 nurses are the main ones to be concerned about. The protocol is dictated by the people not the locations. When they "Identify, Isolate and Contain" the location doesn't really matter.
Nurse Vinson, who flew from Dallas to Cleveland and back, while showing early symptoms such as fever, is certainly a potential vector but there are no reports of her vomiting or otherwise expelling significant bodily fluids, so exposing others is a very low probability event. Again, not zero but definitely very low...so low that an infection among those on the planes she was on or in the Cleveland area would be way more surprising than no infections would be.
The cruise ship, at this point, is a non-starter. The restrictions changed mid-stream (or mid-ocean in this case) due to Vinson's travels. They did what they had to do to impose those restrictions on the "now restricted" person on the ship. There are NOT 4,000 (actually more than 4,500) potentially infected people that came off that ship.
So far, the two related infections we have had were HCW who came into direct contact with Duncan's bodily fluids during his treatment. Which of course is the way over 95% of all documented Ebola cases in all of history have occurred. The other 5% of all cases in all of history to date are ASSUMED to MAYBE be via contaminated surfaces or MAYBE via aerosol droplet exposure simply because the person involved cannot remember how they might have become infected...they do not REMEMBER or REALIZE that they came into direct contact with bodily fluids.