EBOLA Belize Confirms Dallas Nurse With Ebola Symptoms On Cruise Ship Off Its Coast...

yah, but who will voluntarily book on that ship, ya know?

i don't see it being use for anything commercial. target practice was also my first thought, but then i thought it will maybe be bought by the gov and retrofitted with what is needed to make it a BHL4 ship for treatments and whatnot.

Change the name. Nobody will know
 

Heliobas Disciple

TB Fanatic
I agree with those who say they went to way too much trouble for someone who was asymptomatic.

So let's for a moment assume she is symptomatic.

The CDC,etc still believe that a patient is not contagious when they are asymptomatic. They may be right - otherwise there would be 1000's more cases, 100's in Dallas alone, from people who were in contact with Duncan before he got sick, including all the people on his flights to the USA and the people they came into contact with in the weeks that followed, etc. And we have no such outbreak. We also don't have any cases among the people who lived in the apartment complex or anyone they came in contact with. Or all the people who were in the ER at the same time as his two visits at which time he actually was sick and contagious. And still there's not a lot of cases. Or the people in Ohio or who were on the flights with the nurse who flew there. The only ones who caught it from Duncan were in direct contact with his fluids, including this lab tech who handled his blood sample. So right now it doesn't seem to be as easily transmitted through casual contact.

Going by that, until she got her first fever, she wasn't contagious and wasn't a danger to anyone on the ship. When she started showing symptoms (a fever, or whatever) she went into isolation. I don't know if they have a room with its own ventilation - really all they need is one that has a window that opens and then they seal any vents to the room. If no one but the ship doctor and her husband had contact with her - no one else was exposed. And as long as the doctor doesn't come in contact with anyone either, he's not a vector.

So it's probably safe for the passengers on the ship. I wouldn't want to be them but they're probably not going to get sick. And the chances of them being contagious before they get a fever if they do get sick are pretty slim too. I'm sure they are all going to be scared enough if they show symptoms themselves to get to a doctor pretty fast. In a perfect world, they would have all been left on the boat for 30 days to be certain but we know that this is far from a perfect world. So prayers for them that they don't have or carry the virus when they get home.
 

Meemur

Voice on the Prairie / FJB!
We also don't have any cases among the people who lived in the apartment complex or anyone they came in contact with. .

I'm not buying that the lady from Mr. Duncan's apartment complex, the one who was sick on the train platform Friday (10/17), was sick from a spider bite. I think she has ebola.

However, she may also have walked in his vomit or otherwise had some direct contact with his fluids.

Otherwise, I agree with you!
 

CnMO

Veteran Member
They even lied to us about the ETA of the ship. They were saying 8AM Sun. all day on Sat.,,, but that ship was in her dock at 5AM.
Dang, Kris figured out the correct arrival time.

News reporters slept in thru the event.

They lied about every detail, or mislead, on purpose.
 

Heliobas Disciple

TB Fanatic
I'm not buying that the lady from Mr. Duncan's apartment complex, the one who was sick on the train platform Friday (10/17), was sick from a spider bite. I think she has ebola.

However, she may also have walked in his vomit or otherwise had some direct contact with his fluids.

Otherwise, I agree with you!

Exactly. I don't find it hard to believe that there are cases out there that we're not being told about. There could be more HCW or janitors or more people who stepped on his vomit in his apt complex that they're not disclosing. And I'm still waiting to see Duncan's family out in public when their quarantine is lifted. But any case that has so far come up in Dallas is from people who had direct fluid contact - and if the CDC knows who they are and how they got infected that's going to up their confidence level that this is not yet airborne or highly contagious without that type of contact.

I'm more worried about the stories of the passengers on planes from West Africa throwing up in their seats. That would be highly contagious for anyone in close contact because it is a fluid contact. And the cavalier attitude about those instances is more disturbing than the disturbing story of this cruise ship which is somewhat less horrifying if the passenger isolated herself at first sign on symptoms and sealed the vents out of that room.

ETA: I'm actually not as upset as I was about all the lying surrounding this cruise as I was when I first read the story the other night. If in fact every single case of ebola so far in the US (disclosed and not disclosed) can be traced to direct fluid contact, they may be justified in their confidence that casual contact at this point is not going to make someone sick. Of course the virus can mutate but we're talking about right now. And if right now they know the only way someone is going to get sick is to touch fluid - and that this woman didn't see anyone as soon as she got sick and certainly no one was in contact with any of her fluids - why panic 4000 people and their families. Can you imagine every school, hospital, church etc closing for each passenger who gets home because they're worried about contagion? It would shut down the country. And if there really is no risk - why start the panic?

The problem is that they're not telling us anything. What they should have done is disclosed each and every case and in each and every case say what fluid they touched and how many people they were in contact with before they were sick who did not catch it from them. If they did that - everyone would calm down. They are just so stupid and incompetent - not only in handling the disease but in handling how to deal with the public. It's mind boggling.
 

Homesteader

Contributing Member
The problem is that they're not telling us anything. What they should have done is disclosed each and every case and in each and every case say what fluid they touched and how many people they were in contact with before they were sick who did not catch it from them. If they did that - everyone would calm down. They are just so stupid and incompetent - not only in handling the disease but in handling how to deal with the public. It's mind boggling.


Spot on. They are so afraid of causing a panic they don't tell the public anything or if they give out any info, it's contradictory. And by doing that, they are causing a panic.
 

Countrymouse

Country exile in the city
Yep. My money is on the nurse having ebola (followed by her husband).

For me, the question still remains: how realistic is it for others to get it at that point? That's why I think a lot of us are awaiting news on Mr. Duncan's family members, photos of them alive and waving; however, I agree with those who believe they are already dead and we will be told something like: "They are fine. Due to privacy concerns, no more details will be released."

Will the unlucky ones on the boat be the doctor and crew who attended the nurse or other passengers? Although I don't want anyone to get it, I'm going to be an optimist and think that if it spreads, it'll be the nurse's husband, the doctor who examined her, and maybe one other crew member in maintenance. Hopefully, they will be isolated and watched.

So, no, I'm not worried about all of the passengers being infected at this point.

And I (though I mentioned the 4000 figure) did not seriously believe ALL of them were contaminated as well, though the potential for it was there.

Like you, I hope no more than the lady & her husband and VERY FEW IF ANY others were exposed, but chances / probabilities are against that, "if" she does have ebola and "if" it proceeds with the same level of virulence it has for Sawyer & Duncan.

It is getting to the point that---if PEOPLE INDIVIDUALLY do not come forward--despite personal fears / sanctions--to get the TRUTH out there, WE WILL NEVER HEAR IT.

The government is lying
The CDC is lying
The medical establishment (top-level; not the nurses and not some doctors) is lying
The military is / will be lying
The media is lying


It is time for those of us who have ANY information --"inside" or otherwise---to SHARE it in interests of protecting / helping / saving ALL of us.

If it's too hot, PM Dennis or one of the mods---they can "sanitize" it and put in the Bomb Shelter.



But I have a feeling that, pretty soon, such info is going to become SO common, and will be coming in SO fast, it won't NEED to be confined to the Bomb Shelter....
 

Countrymouse

Country exile in the city
I totally agree with Countrymouse - It seems like an awful lot of effort for someone that wasn't showing any symptoms. I would like to see if he really did drive herself as it's reported...

anyway here's what that reporter on board posted they got when leaving the ship:

B0UN-LRIcAAmv84.jpg:large

Interesting.

NO MENTION is made in this "reassuring" flyer of the MONUMENTAL EFFORT expended by the STATE DEPARTMENT---starting with lower-levels and eventually GOING ALL THE WAY UP TO HAVING JOHN KERRY HIMSELF CALL THE PM OF BELIZE---to GET HER HOME. NOW. ON A MEDIVAC HELICOPTER FROM THE BELIZE AIRPOT. NOW!!!


If the situation was so fine and dandy as the above indicates---then WHAT was all THAT about?

As for "avoiding an international incident"--their actions (going all the way up to Kerry to PRESSURE Belize to accept her) CREATED and MADE it into an international incident.
 

TerryK

TB Fanatic
Jeesh, put two people on a plane. One with the flu and one with Ebola. As long as the Ebola isn't to the point of vomiting all over everyone, there will be more people who catch the flu than Ebola.

No you don't have to seal off ventilation to the cabin of the quarantined passenger. Return air goes through ducts, through a filter and into the AC unit before it is pumped back out. If Ebola was airborne like the flu or cold you might have a problem, but in an even more closed air system the family of Duncan or the nurse has yet to come down with Ebola.

As far as people questioning the government making such a big deal out of it and flying a helicopter down near Belize, the whole reason they did is to avoid the publicity and an international incident.
They did fly another helo down to the ship while it was still at sea heading towards Texas. The Coast Guard chopper checked the patient out and took a blood sample that was immediately tested proved negative by the next day.
The woman was not quarantined, and was able to drive herself home unescorted.

For those who believe she was an imposter.... well there's probably not much anyone can say to convince you of anything.
 

Countrymouse

Country exile in the city
I agree with those who say they went to way too much trouble for someone who was asymptomatic.

So let's for a moment assume she is symptomatic.

The CDC,etc still believe that a patient is not contagious when they are asymptomatic. They may be right - otherwise there would be 1000's more cases, 100's in Dallas alone, from people who were in contact with Duncan before he got sick, including all the people on his flights to the USA and the people they came into contact with in the weeks that followed, etc. And we have no such outbreak. We also don't have any cases among the people who lived in the apartment complex or anyone they came in contact with. Or all the people who were in the ER at the same time as his two visits at which time he actually was sick and contagious. And still there's not a lot of cases. Or the people in Ohio or who were on the flights with the nurse who flew there. The only ones who caught it from Duncan were in direct contact with his fluids, including this lab tech who handled his blood sample. So right now it doesn't seem to be as easily transmitted through casual contact.

Going by that, until she got her first fever, she wasn't contagious and wasn't a danger to anyone on the ship. When she started showing symptoms (a fever, or whatever) she went into isolation. I don't know if they have a room with its own ventilation - really all they need is one that has a window that opens and then they seal any vents to the room. If no one but the ship doctor and her husband had contact with her - no one else was exposed. And as long as the doctor doesn't come in contact with anyone either, he's not a vector.

So it's probably safe for the passengers on the ship. I wouldn't want to be them but they're probably not going to get sick. And the chances of them being contagious before they get a fever if they do get sick are pretty slim too. I'm sure they are all going to be scared enough if they show symptoms themselves to get to a doctor pretty fast. In a perfect world, they would have all been left on the boat for 30 days to be certain but we know that this is far from a perfect world. So prayers for them that they don't have or carry the virus when they get home.

A MONTH from NOW, they won't be ABLE to hide it any more....if ebola "is" actually as easily transmissible as the reports from Liberia we've all been following for months seems to indicate.


But--HEY!---WAIT!


THAT will be AFTER the election, won't it???
 

bw

Fringe Ranger
This is probably a case of a drama queen bragging to fellow passengers that she worked at the same Dallas hospital doing lab work where Duncan died. The passengers then spread the rumor and it got out of hand. Now everyone, ships doctor, and those Coast Guard who examined her are saying there were no symptoms. They probably let her off the ship first so she could quickly leave before the rest of the passengers killed her.

And for the worst-case scenario: She is infected, the .gov knows it, and she might or might not have survived the voyage. We are not intended to know, and the thousands of potential victims among the fellow-passengers will be plausibly deniable if needed. It will be hushed up because (1) the .gov is hushing every infection instance, (2) the .gov bean-counters fear the economic hit to the cruise industry, and/or (3) major cruise stockholders are Democrat donors and made it clear what publicity would mean for future donations.
 

Be Well

may all be well
BW, I think without a doubt that the gov has put a total gag order on all EBV patient news. Verboten. The gov was very upset that the media was not a total lapdog regarding the topic. Now we will hear not a single thing from any regular news media, or of course hospital or any other official source. Insiders are now officially our only source of info.
 

Kris Gandillon

The Other Curmudgeon
_______________
A MONTH from NOW, they won't be ABLE to hide it any more....if ebola "is" actually as easily transmissible as the reports from Liberia we've all been following for months seems to indicate.


But--HEY!---WAIT!


THAT will be AFTER the election, won't it???

It's currently spreading exactly as fast as it is in Liberia. Duncan infected two others in less than 1/2 a month. That gives it an R0 of 2.5 so far. Pretty much the average R0 we had in Liberia for the months of August and September of 2014.

If we see no additional infections by November 27th (42 days) then it has been successfully contained to just these 3 cases...Duncan and the 2 nurses.

If it has not been successfully contained and it maintains the R0 of 2.5 then we should see 3 more infections during November 2014 for a total of 6 infections by the end of November with 3 or 4 dead. Then December 2014 would see us having 10 more infections for a total of 16 infected and likely 9 dead (assuming a PFC of 60%) if it continues to act exactly as it does in West Africa. If our "better" healthcare actually makes a significant difference, then we should see less than 9 dead by the end of the year.
 

Be Well

may all be well
The problem as you probably would agree, Kris, is that it seems clear a gag has been placed on media, hospitals and individuals. So how will we know if anyone is infected or dies? I don't think we will unless insiders sneak info out and/or the deaths become such a huge number they can't remain hidden. And if the deaths are sprinkled about in different locations it would be easier to hide. Remember how docs who treated illegal "children" were threatened with arrest if they said anything about what illnesses they were treating.
 

Mama Ten Bears

Veteran Member
It's currently spreading exactly as fast as it is in Liberia. Duncan infected two others in less than 1/2 a month. That gives it an R0 of 2.5 so far. Pretty much the average R0 we had in Liberia for the months of August and September of 2014.

If we see no additional infections by November 27th (42 days) then it has been successfully contained to just these 3 cases...Duncan and the 2 nurses.

If it has not been successfully contained and it maintains the R0 of 2.5 then we should see 3 more infections during November 2014 for a total of 6 infections by the end of November with 3 or 4 dead. Then December 2014 would see us having 10 more infections for a total of 16 infected and likely 9 dead (assuming a PFC of 60%) if it continues to act exactly as it does in West Africa. If our "better" healthcare actually makes a significant difference, then we should see less than 9 dead by the end of the year.

Thnk you. The RO of 2.5 is what I posted about earlier. I live in dfw and am optimistic that the public is not at risk. Now, unless the PPE situation is resolved, healthcare workers are still at risk.
 

Doomer Doug

TB Fanatic
Kris, you are not factoring in sequential infection zones.

The first zone is the actual apartment. We have five potential cases out of there.

The second zone is the apartment complex. WE have one potential case from there.

The third zone is the hospital, the Emergency room, the patient room and all the medical people. We have 3 confirmed cases out of that, Duncan and the two nurses.

The fourth infection zone is the nurse flying to Cleveland and back. We have several hundred potential cases out of that.

The fifth infection zone is the cruise ship. We have 4,000 potential cases from there.

Kris, we could see DOZENS of additional cases of Ebola depending on how long various people were exposing other people.

I agree we will likely know by Thanksgiving, but the potential for several hundred Ebola cases by then is definitely there.
 

Kris Gandillon

The Other Curmudgeon
_______________
Kris, you are not factoring in sequential infection zones.

The first zone is the actual apartment. We have five potential cases out of there.

The second zone is the apartment complex. WE have one potential case from there.

The third zone is the hospital, the Emergency room, the patient room and all the medical people. We have 3 confirmed cases out of that, Duncan and the two nurses.

The fourth infection zone is the nurse flying to Cleveland and back. We have several hundred potential cases out of that.

The fifth infection zone is the cruise ship. We have 4,000 potential cases from there.

Kris, we could see DOZENS of additional cases of Ebola depending on how long various people were exposing other people.

I agree we will likely know by Thanksgiving, but the potential for several hundred Ebola cases by then is definitely there.

Doug, "Potential" doesn't mean crap until there is an actual new infection. You are living and dying by SPECULATION.

The immediate family falls off the radar at midnight tonight when their 21 days are over. If there are no infections in that group, and I do not expect any then those folks are removed from the list.

The apartment complex is a very, very low possibility. Not zero but so close that it might as well be.

The HCW in Dallas are the most likely to still have another one pop up but that risk goes down daily the further we get into the 21 days from Duncan, from Pham and from Vinson....which are all different dates depending on who worked when and who they came in contact with along the way. Some of those HCW will be cleared and falling off the list daily for the next 10-15 days.

In the "Identify, Isolate and Contain" protocol, all primary contacts of Duncan and the 2 nurses are the main ones to be concerned about. The protocol is dictated by the people not the locations. When they "Identify, Isolate and Contain" the location doesn't really matter.

Nurse Vinson, who flew from Dallas to Cleveland and back, while showing early symptoms such as fever, is certainly a potential vector but there are no reports of her vomiting or otherwise expelling significant bodily fluids, so exposing others is a very low probability event. Again, not zero but definitely very low...so low that an infection among those on the planes she was on or in the Cleveland area would be way more surprising than no infections would be.

The cruise ship, at this point, is a non-starter. The restrictions changed mid-stream (or mid-ocean in this case) due to Vinson's travels. They did what they had to do to impose those restrictions on the "now restricted" person on the ship. There are NOT 4,000 (actually more than 4,500) potentially infected people that came off that ship.

So far, the two related infections we have had were HCW who came into direct contact with Duncan's bodily fluids during his treatment. Which of course is the way over 95% of all documented Ebola cases in all of history have occurred. The other 5% of all cases in all of history to date are ASSUMED to MAYBE be via contaminated surfaces or MAYBE via aerosol droplet exposure simply because the person involved cannot remember how they might have become infected...they do not REMEMBER or REALIZE that they came into direct contact with bodily fluids.
 

terresaann

Contributing Member
Moore, Oklahoma

Moore PS holding out staff members and students that were on cruise with Dallas Ebola tech
Posted: Oct 19, 2014 7:33 PM CDTUpdated: Oct 19, 2014 7:33 PM CDT
By: Austin Prickett, Assignment Editor
CONNECT



Moore Public Schools says that several staff members and students from their district were aboard the same cruise as a lab technician who handled an Ebola patient's specimens in Dallas.

Though the lab technician was not exhibiting signs of Ebola, the school district has determined that employees who were on the cruise will not be reporting to work until the technician's incubation period of 21 days is up.

The incubation period for the Dallas technician ends Tuesday Oct. 21.

Moore Public Schools is currently in the process of identifying students who were on the same cruise. Once identified, those students will also be required to stay out of school until the end of the incubation period.

The students absences will not be counted against them.

Once the district gets an all clear from the CDC, the staff members and students will be allowed to return to school.

http://www.okcfox.com/story/2682588...ts-that-were-on-cruise-with-dallas-ebola-tech
 

Wise Owl

Deceased
Adjusting tinfoil hat: how do we know it was her that drove off? Where was her husband?

For all we know, they let the other passengers off and then when no one was watching, transferred her to one of the Level 4 hospitals.

That's what I just got done telling my dh. And I don't have tin foil on yet. Just going by what we have been experiencing the past weeks.
 

bw

Fringe Ranger
An Oklahoma school district has more sense than the US government. Admittedly, that's a low bar ...
 

prepgirl44

Veteran Member
Doug, "Potential" doesn't mean crap until there is an actual new infection. You are living and dying by SPECULATION.

The immediate family falls off the radar at midnight tonight when their 21 days are over. If there are no infections in that group, and I do not expect any then those folks are removed from the list.

The apartment complex is a very, very low possibility. Not zero but so close that it might as well be.

The HCW in Dallas are the most likely to still have another one pop up but that risk goes down daily the further we get into the 21 days from Duncan, from Pham and from Vinson....which are all different dates depending on who worked when and who they came in contact with along the way. Some of those HCW will be cleared and falling off the list daily for the next 10-15 days.

In the "Identify, Isolate and Contain" protocol, all primary contacts of Duncan and the 2 nurses are the main ones to be concerned about. The protocol is dictated by the people not the locations. When they "Identify, Isolate and Contain" the location doesn't really matter.

Nurse Vinson, who flew from Dallas to Cleveland and back, while showing early symptoms such as fever, is certainly a potential vector but there are no reports of her vomiting or otherwise expelling significant bodily fluids, so exposing others is a very low probability event. Again, not zero but definitely very low...so low that an infection among those on the planes she was on or in the Cleveland area would be way more surprising than no infections would be.

The cruise ship, at this point, is a non-starter. The restrictions changed mid-stream (or mid-ocean in this case) due to Vinson's travels. They did what they had to do to impose those restrictions on the "now restricted" person on the ship. There are NOT 4,000 (actually more than 4,500) potentially infected people that came off that ship.

So far, the two related infections we have had were HCW who came into direct contact with Duncan's bodily fluids during his treatment. Which of course is the way over 95% of all documented Ebola cases in all of history have occurred. The other 5% of all cases in all of history to date are ASSUMED to MAYBE be via contaminated surfaces or MAYBE via aerosol droplet exposure simply because the person involved cannot remember how they might have become infected...they do not REMEMBER or REALIZE that they came into direct contact with bodily fluids.

We really do need a "like" button.

Thank you Kris, for this post, and for your always calm reasoning and logic, your attention to detail and just stating the facts. I appreciate your tendency to be unmoved by emotion and remain logical during this crisis. I greatly appreciate it.
 

R.Tist

Membership Revoked
We really do need a "like" button.

Thank you Kris, for this post, and for your always calm reasoning and logic, your attention to detail and just stating the facts. I appreciate your tendency to be unmoved by emotion and remain logical during this crisis. I greatly appreciate it.

Ditto. Thank you again, Kris.


Artie.
 

Adino

paradigm shaper
if ebola actually spread like the cdc says, and it really is as hard to transmit as the cdc says, then kris' last post above will be proven to be correct by thanksgiving

i am not in agreement

it believe it spreads more easily than they admit.

and i believe there are anywhere from a dozen to 2 dozen actual ebola + caes out there that they are hiding

i believe they want this to spread

kris believes it is merely a step after step of incompetence

one of us is wrong and 1 will be eating crow by thanksgiving

i sincerely and whole heartedly hope it is i that am wrong and will be publicly eating crow

i really do

i would much rather be wrong and eat crow than live in the decimation i think is mere months away

but to sit where kris does, and stay focused only on 'facts' leaves me in a place where i have to believe everything prez obola and the cdc say

and i am having a hard time seeing that that faith is warranted

that said, come thanksgiving this burns out from the 3 cases they admit to and i will start the crow eaters thread myself
 

Kris Gandillon

The Other Curmudgeon
_______________
if ebola actually spread like the cdc says, and it really is as hard to transmit as the cdc says, then kris' last post above will be proven to be correct by thanksgiving

i am not in agreement

it believe it spreads more easily than they admit.

and i believe there are anywhere from a dozen to 2 dozen actual ebola + caes out there that they are hiding

i believe they want this to spread

kris believes it is merely a step after step of incompetence

one of us is wrong and 1 will be eating crow by thanksgiving

i sincerely and whole heartedly hope it is i that am wrong and will be publicly eating crow

i really do

i would much rather be wrong and eat crow than live in the decimation i think is mere months away

but to sit where kris does, and stay focused only on 'facts' leaves me in a place where i have to believe everything prez obola and the cdc say

and i am having a hard time seeing that that faith is warranted

that said, come thanksgiving this burns out from the 3 cases they admit to and i will start the crow eaters thread myself

I am simply going on historical, documented evidence of how Ebola has popped up and been handled over the last 38 years.

That and simple, objective reality of the current situation. Inuding the fact that government is often incompetent when it comes to matters like these.

Anything else is simply speculation with no real basis in fact.
 

Adino

paradigm shaper
that works if there has been no mutation

it works if the travel of the virus is comparable to historical outbreaks

if ebola has mutated then historical evidence from previous outbreaks can give direction for research but is not necessarily suitable for empirical examination w/ the current outbreak

and analysis depends on accurate data points

if previous outbreaks were handled the same as this one is, then historical statistics are applicable

and again this is not being handled like previous outbreaks because all previous outbreaks had been confined to more geographically rural locations where the virus was contained by distances between villages

this outbreak is not confined to distances between villages as it is being placed on jets to fly as far as it can as fast as it can

i am all for analysis of facts

i applaud the job you have done/are doing kris and am not wanting to in any way make this a pissing contest between the two of us

but we need to make sure our premise is correct in our factual analysis

and the mutation of the virus and its rapid spread via modern transport outside of rural africa have significantly changed the game

and that has to be taken into account in analysis

and analyzing like those two dramatic changes have occurred makes pulling in historical statistics and facts more complex than plug and chug

imo

peace
 

Faroe

Un-spun
Just going to chime in. I too appreciate the role Kris has taken in this epidemic. I've been following (sometimes obsessively) his numbers on this tradgedy since July. I want the truth. I want the best data and the most verifiable numbers to be found.

We can only speculate from there (I certainly do, and I am alarmed); but without that core, one risks devolving into scarey fantasy.
 

Green Co.

Administrator
_______________
Just going to chime in. I too appreciate the role Kris has taken in this epidemic. I've been following (sometimes obsessively) his numbers on this tradgedy since July. I want the truth. I want the best data and the most verifiable numbers to be found.

We can only speculate from there (I certainly do, and I am alarmed); but without that core, one risks devolving into scarey fantasy.

That is what we do not want to do. This bug is scarey enough without the fantasy. Kris' figures have been spot on these last several months from using just the facts from the EBV reports world wide.

Welcome Faroe, we all want the truth. Thanks

And another kudos to Kris for his help in this matter. But we'll have to help take up the slack as he starts a new path this morning, and won't have the time to dedicate to searching cases.
 

Adino

paradigm shaper
the numbers have been spot on

and kris has done a great job

but any model is only as good as its raw data


and for the sake of argument, how do we know the numbers given for public consumption aren't back ended to give a nice bell curve comparison to previous outbreaks

we see uncle sugar start w/ the unemployment % he would like to parade out and back fill data to support the disney tale unemployment %'s

how do we not know that is what is happening here w/ ebola sick #'s and death #'s?

'here is the number we want to admit to this week....go give back fill data to support this'

they do it w/ 'global warming'

they do it w/ deficit and true debt #'s

they do it w/ unemployment

they do it w/ data for franken foods

why should i suspect that now, for once, lo and behold, global bodies and uncle sugar are going to break out w/ the truth?

truth ...fantasy

they are in the eyes of the beholder

humanity used to think the earth was flat and anyone who thought otherwise was engaging in fantasy
 

Mama Ten Bears

Veteran Member
Adino, I do hope you are the one eating crow. The alternative is very scary. Right now, as a dfw resident, I'm in the Kris camp. We can all sigh a big sigh of relief that despite the garangatan blunders by the cdc and their inadequate PPE recommendations, we dodged a big bullet!
 

Countrymouse

Country exile in the city
It's currently spreading exactly as fast as it is in Liberia. Duncan infected two others in less than 1/2 a month. That gives it an R0 of 2.5 so far. Pretty much the average R0 we had in Liberia for the months of August and September of 2014.

If we see no additional infections by November 27th (42 days) then it has been successfully contained to just these 3 cases...Duncan and the 2 nurses.

If it has not been successfully contained and it maintains the R0 of 2.5 then we should see 3 more infections during November 2014 for a total of 6 infections by the end of November with 3 or 4 dead. Then December 2014 would see us having 10 more infections for a total of 16 infected and likely 9 dead (assuming a PFC of 60%) if it continues to act exactly as it does in West Africa. If our "better" healthcare actually makes a significant difference, then we should see less than 9 dead by the end of the year.

Thanks, Kris.

At least it won't be "hundreds" infected, then, by the end of the year--that's good news.

But the figures WILL be small enough to be "hide-able", and than "can" be bad news.

And I think the "Ebola Czar was NOT hired to stem the tide of Ebola but to act as O's PR man and make SURE no Ebola news negatively impacts O or the upcoming elections.
 

joyfulheart

Veteran Member
As a DFW resident myself who lives 19 miles away from that apartment/hospital-- I believe we're being flat out lied to.
I do not believe we dodged any bullets.
Big sigh of relief? Nope.

Sorry, I'm not believing it. Let me see and hear the living duncan family that lived in that apartment. THEN I might give a sigh.

And living in the DFW area knowing some medical people who are giving private warnings at their own hospitals, I KNOW we are being lied to!
 

Adino

paradigm shaper
me too mama

i hope its full of feathers and nasty and i would rather take the public embarrassment than pandemic

i would seriously question the sanity of anyone who didn't want this to burn out like all the last outbreaks

but the 'what if' exercise is too important w/ the odds we're playing w/ to not examine this from more than 1 rigid paradigm, that paradigm being history and honest authorities

i've made my point i'll sit down and shut again
 

Countrymouse

Country exile in the city
Thnk you. The RO of 2.5 is what I posted about earlier. I live in dfw and am optimistic that the public is not at risk. Now, unless the PPE situation is resolved, healthcare workers are still at risk.

I don't think they WILL change the PPE.

Here's why:

1. If they change the PPE on all HCWs working with Ebola patients, that sends the message that Ebola is FAR MORE CONTAGIOUS than previously reported.

2. If the people SEE that HCWs are wearing Level 4 PPE (as they SHOULD BE) they will start asking questions:

*Why is Level 4 PPE necessary?
*Why were we not TOLD it was this contagious BEFORE?
*If it IS this contagious, WHY are our borders still open?
*If it is THIS contagious, then "I" might catch it a LOT more easily!​

The ANSWERS to ALL these questions will indicate that--up to NOW---the GOVERNMENT, the CDC, and the "MEDICAL EXPERTS" have been LYING to them.

That will cause a MASSIVE loss of trust and questioning of GOVERNMENT---which we can't have, ESPECIALLY right before an ELECTION.

Furthermore, "IF" the people were AWARE of these truths, they would take steps to PROTECT THEMSELVES from Ebola (especially as they see their Government is NOT protecting them).

They might do POLITICALLY INCORRECT THINGS that would "STIGMATIZE" the sick (most of whom, up to now, have been African or black) by:

1. Avoiding persons they think may have been in a "hot" zone or in contact with "hot" (infected) people;

2. Wearing their own PPE, which hurts the feelings of those who have been sick and makes them feel "stigmatized"

3. Even putting on hand sanitizer around people they feel may be "hot" (infected), which again might hurt those people's feelings and make them feel stigmatized

----and with political correctness, we can't have that.


With the politically correct ideology, is it FAR better that we IGNORE the potential REAL level of transmissibility of Ebola altogether, and have it march unopposed through the general population, than to make a group of people (blacks, Lilberians, Africans, etc.) or even a single person (such as a recently quarantined person or a recovered Ebola patient) "feel" bad.
 

Tennessee gal

Veteran Member
Thanks, Kris.

At least it won't be "hundreds" infected, then, by the end of the year--that's good news.

But the figures WILL be small enough to be "hide-able", and than "can" be bad news.

And I think the "Ebola Czar was NOT hired to stem the tide of Ebola but to act as O's PR man and make SURE no Ebola news negatively impacts O or the upcoming elections.

I agree Countrymouse. I believe the Ebola Czar was hired to take the heat off of Obama and give him someone to blame if this goes to Hell in a hand basket!
 
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