INTL Europe: Politics, Economics, and Military- February 2020

[Plain Jane]

January's thread is here:

INTL - Europe: Politics, Economics and Military. January 2020

Last month's thread is here. http://xf.timebomb2000.com/xf/index.php?threads/europe-politics-economics-military-december-2019.564339/page-2#post-7518128 I have not posted about this case because it did not seem like a big deal. But it is turning into one...

xf.timebomb2000.com

Joy and sadness: how the world is reacting on Brexit Day

The United Kingdom leaves the European Union at 2300 GMT on Friday, ending its 47-year membership of the world's biggest trading bloc.

www.reuters.com

NEWS
JANUARY 31, 2020 / 4:11 AM / UPDATED 3 HOURS AGO
Joy and sadness: how the world is reacting on Brexit Day


5 MIN READ

LONDON (Reuters) - The United Kingdom leaves the European Union at 2300 GMT on Friday, ending its 47-year membership of the world’s biggest trading bloc.

Reactions from leaders in Britain, and from around the world, were a mix of joy, resolve, sadness and resignation.

BRITISH PRIME MINISTER BORIS JOHNSON
“Our job as the government – my job – is to bring this country together and take us forward,” Johnson said in a statement.

“And the most important thing to say tonight is that this is not an end but a beginning. This is the moment when the dawn breaks and the curtain goes up on a new act. It is a moment of real national renewal and change.”

FRENCH PRESIDENT EMMANUEL MACRON, IN ADDRESS TO FRENCH CITIZENS

“I remember how much the 2016 (referendum) was made up of lies, exaggeration and simplification, of cheques that were written but will never be honored... Between France and the United Kingdom there is a long history, founded on blood, freedom, courage, on battles that we have shared... This is a sad day, there’s no hiding it. But it’s also a day which should prompt us to proceed in a different way. To build with more determination a European Union that is powerful, effective, which you find more convincing and which rediscovers the historical path that makes this European Union a unique and, in my eyes, irreplaceable adventure.”

FORMER BRITISH PRIME MINISTER THERESA MAY
“At 11 pm tonight, Britain will leave the European Union. After more than three years, we can finally say that we have delivered on the result of the 2016 referendum and have kept faith with the British people.”


BRITISH OPPOSITION LABOUR LEADER JEREMY CORBYN
“Britain’s place in the world will change. The question is what direction we now take,” Corbyn said in a statement.

“We can build a truly internationalist, diverse and outward-looking Britain. Or we can turn inwards, and trade our principles, rights and standards to secure hastily arranged, one-sided, race-to-the-bottom trade deals with Donald Trump and others.”

NIGEL FARAGE, LEADER OF THE BREXIT PARTY, ON TWITTER
“Happy Brexit Day! ... At last the day comes when we break free. A massive victory for the people against the establishment....11 pm tonight marks the point of no return. Once we Leave, we will never rejoin the European Union. Time to celebrate.”

CARL BILDT, FORMER SWEDISH PRIME MINISTER
“It was in 1962 Dean Acheson famously said that Britain had ‘lost an empire, and failed to find a role.’ A decade later, it found a European role, made a success of it, but decided to throw it away half a century later. And now? No one really knows. It’s back to square one.”

DONALD TUSK, EX-PRESIDENT OF EUROPEAN COUNCIL

“My dear British friends. We were, we are, and we will always be a Community. And no Brexit will ever change that.”


EU CHIEF NEGOTIATOR MICHEL BARNIER
“Today my thoughts go the millions of British citizens who are sad, as we are sad today,” Barnier told BBC TV.

U.S. SECRETARY OF STATE MIKE POMPEO
“The British people wanted out of the tyranny of Brussels,” Pompeo told the Daily Telegraph. “They wanted the capacity to make their own decisions. We want that for the British people too.”

SCOTTISH FIRST MINISTER NICOLA STURGEON
“Tonight, the UK will leave the European Union. That will be a moment of profound sadness for many of us across the UK. And here in Scotland, given that it is happening against the will of the vast majority of us, that sadness will be tinged with anger,” she said.

“I want to focus on something much more important. Hope of a different and better future for Scotland ... After tonight, that future is only open to us with independence.”

DAVID CAMERON, FORMER BRITISH PRIME MINISTER
“It’s obviously a very big day for our country,” Cameron, who called the 2016 referendum and quit after the vote for Brexit, told Sky News.

“I always accepted the referendum result and knew this day would come. We are one of the biggest economies in the world ... we can make a success of the choice that we make and I’m sure that’s exactly what we will do.”


TONY BLAIR, FORMER BRITISH PRIME MINISTER
“I opposed Brexit with every fiber of my political being. I still deeply regret it, politically and emotionally... But Brexit is happening, and our attitude now should be to strive to make the best of it; to approach it with determined optimism, not looking over our shoulders in unrequited longing for what was.”

Reporting by Michael Holden, John Chalmers and Christian Lowe; Editing by Gareth Jones
Our Standards:The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

********

TB2K congratulates the UK here:

FASCISM - Today is BREXIT Day! Nigel Farage Bids Farewell to the EU

Congrats Brits!! Nigel Farage Bids Farewell to the EU Posted on January 29, 2020 by Steven Hayward https://www.powerlineblog.com/archives/2020/01/nigel-farage-bids-farewell-to-the-eu.php We’re less than 48 hours away from Britain’s exit from the European Union (oh happy day!), and today at...

xf.timebomb2000.com

 

[northern watch]

Holger Zschaepitz‏ @Schuldensuehner 6h6 hours ago

We will miss you: Britain finally breaks away from EU after 47 years of membership, marking one of the biggest political and econ shifts in modern Europe. Brexit brings about the end of a tumultuous three-and-a-half-year departure process.

 

[northern watch]

Britain leaving the EU, will also be significant for the EU

 

[northern watch]

Brexit at last: Britain leaves the EU as champagne corks fly
Guy Faulconbridge, Kate Holton
January 31, 2020 / 8:27 AM / Updated 4 hours ago

LONDON (Reuters) - The United Kingdom finally cast off from the European Union on Friday for an uncertain future, with Brexiteers claiming victory and popping champagne corks for an “independence day” they said marked a new era for the country.

In its biggest shift since losing its global empire, the United Kingdom slipped away at 2300 GMT, turning its back after 47 years on the post-World War Two project that sought to build the ruined nations of Europe into a global power.

Beside the British parliament, flag-waving Brexit supporters cheered, revelling in a mix of nostalgia, patriotism and defiance. Some sang “God Save the Queen”, while others hugged amid the smoke of fireworks.

“The war is over: we have won,” Nigel Farage, a leading Leave campaigner, told the crowd. “This is the single most important moment in the modern history of our great nation.”

On the white cliffs of Dover, the message: “The UK has left the EU” was projected between a British and an EU flag.

Once considered the unlikely dream of a motley crew of “eurosceptics” on the fringes of British politics, Brexit also weakens the EU, conceived as a way to bind together Europe’s major powers in peace after centuries of conflict.

When the exit day finally came, after 3-1/2 years of wrangling since the 2016 referendum, it was an anticlimax of sorts: while Brexiteers waving flags toasted freedom in the rain, many Britons showed indifference or relief.

“For many people, this is an astonishing moment of hope, a moment they thought would never come,” Prime Minister Boris Johnson, the New York-born leader of the official “Leave” campaign, said.

He celebrated in Downing Street with English sparkling wine and a distinctly British array of canapés including Shropshire blue cheese and Yorkshire puddings with beef and horseradish.

The EU’s most powerful leaders, German Chancellor Angela Merkel and French President Emmanuel Macron, cast Brexit as a sad moment that was a turning point for Europe. The EU warned that leaving would be worse than staying.

U.S. President Donald Trump has long supported Brexit. His Secretary of State Mike Pompeo said Britons wanted to escape the “tyranny of Brussels”.

At EU headquarters in Brussels, the British flag was lowered. Little will change immediately, however, as a transition period keeps the United Kingdom as a member in all but name until the end of 2020.

Supporters young and old packed into Parliament Square to hear Farage.
“I’m not jumping around celebrating, it’s just absolute satisfaction and relief and optimism,” said Emma Sandercock, a 53-year-old secretary from Northamptonshire in central England.

‘INDEPENDENCE DAY’

Cast either as an epic opportunity or a grave mistake, Brexit has turned long-held views of Britain upside down just as the world grapples with the rise of China and the West’s deepest divisions since the 1991 fall of the Soviet Union, whose liberated satellite states later joined the EU.

It also diminishes the EU. At the stroke of midnight in Brussels, the bloc lost 15% of its economy, its biggest military spender and the world’s international financial capital, London.

Leaving was once a far-fetched idea: the UK joined in 1973 as “the sick man of Europe” and less than two decades ago British leaders were arguing about whether to join the euro.

But the turmoil of the euro zone crisis, fears about mass immigration and miscalculations by former Prime Minister David Cameron led to the 52% to 48% vote to leave in 2016.

For proponents, Brexit is “independence day” — an escape from what they cast as a German-dominated project with a doomed single currency that is failing its 500 million people.

They hope departure will herald reforms to reshape Britain and propel it ahead of its European rivals.

UNCERTAIN FUTURE

Opponents say Brexit is a folly that will weaken the West, torpedo what is left of Britain’s global clout, undermine its economy and ultimately leave it a less cosmopolitan set of islands.

David Tucker, 75, said he had come to London from Wales to march in the hope that others would keep alive the prospect of one day rejoining the EU.

“It is a tragedy,” he said. “We were once part of the world’s most powerful economic bloc. Now we are just an inward-looking island that is going to get smaller.”

Johnson has promised to strike a broad free trade agreement with the EU, the world’s biggest trading bloc, though Merkel and Macron have warned that leaving will be harder than staying.

But Brexit was always about much more than Europe. The referendum exposed deep internal divisions and triggered soul-searching about everything from immigration to empire and modern Britishness.

It has tested the very fabric of what now looks a disunited kingdom: England and Wales voted to leave but Scotland and Northern Ireland wanted to stay. The strains could hasten another referendum on Scottish independence and even a push for a united Ireland.

“We’ve had enough of the European Union, we don’t want it,” said Adrian Langshaw, 42. “We want to be a sovereign nation and live as a British nation, make our decisions, make our rules and live how we want.”

Writing by Guy Faulconbridge; Additional reporting by Kylie MacLellan, Andy Bruce, Elizbeth Howcroft and William James in London; Andrew MacAskill in Paris; John Chalmers and Gabriela Baczynska in Brussels; Editing by Catherine Evans

Brexit at last: Britain leaves the EU as champagne corks fly

 

[northern watch]

Pompeo says US can supply Belarus with 100% of oil, gas
U.S. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo says the United States can provide Belarus with 100% of its oil and gas, a slap at Russia which recently cut off supplies
By MATTHEW LEE AP Diplomatic Writer
1 February 2020

Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko greets U.S. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo during a meeting in Minsk, Belarus, Saturday, February 1, 2020. (Kevin Lamarque/Pool Photo via AP)The Associated Press

MINSK, Belarus -- U.S. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo said Saturday that the United States is willing and able to provide Belarus with 100% of its oil and gas, taking a slap at Russia which recently cut off supplies.

Pompeo is the first secretary of state to visit Belarus in 26 years and arrived in Minsk amid new tensions between Minsk and Moscow over energy. In a meeting with authoritarian President Alexander Lukashenko, Pompeo said he hoped to help provide an opportunity for Belarus to achieve the “sovereignty” and “independence” it seeks.

“The United States wants to help Belarus build its own sovereign country," Pompeo said at a joint news conference with Foreign Minister Vladimir Makei.

“Our energy producers stand ready to deliver 100% of the oil you need at competitive prices. We’re the biggest energy producer in the world and all you have to do is call us.”

Belarus fears Russia is trying to absorb it and last month began purchasing gas from Norway after Russian supplies were cut off. Last week, Lukashenko accused Russia, the country's main provider of cheap oil and gas, of stopping supplies “to dissolve Belarus.”

Pompeo said the U.S. wants to help fill the vacuum and will continue to boost staffing at its embassy in Minsk, which was severely reduced 12 years ago when the U.S. imposed significant sanctions on the country over human rights abuses.

The two countries agreed in September to exchange ambassadors for the first time since 2008. Pompeo said a new U.S. ambassador would be named soon.

Noting the recent history of poor relations, Lukashenko lamented the “absolutely groundless misunderstandings of the past authorities” and welcomed Pompeo's visit.

Belarus had been a candidate to be included in the Trump administration's expanded travel ban that was announced on Friday but avoided it by taking measures to improve security cooperation and potential traveler threat information with the United States.

In addition to trying to boost American influence in Belarus, Pompeo urged economic and political reforms as well as improved human rights conditions — a message similar to those he will be bringing to his next stops in Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan later this weekend. At each stop, Pompeo will warn of attempts by Russia and China to aggressively assert themselves in Europe and Central Asia.

Russia stopped supplying oil to Belarus after December 31. The two nations had failed to renegotiate an agreed oil price for this year during drawn-out negotiations on deepening the integration of their economies.

Moscow argues that Belarus should accept greater economic integration if it wants to continue receiving energy resources at Russia's domestic prices.

This has prompted fears in Belarus that the Kremlin is plotting to form a single state with Belarus to keep Russian President Vladimir Putin in power well past the end of his term in 2024.

Lukashenko has repeatedly rejected the idea, saying that Belarus would never become part of Russia.

The Russian suspension did not affect oil crossing Belarus to Europe or the supply of natural gas, but had consequences for Belarus, which relies on Russia for more than 80% of its energy needs.

Lukashenko has since vowed to find alternative oil suppliers and said Friday that Belarus is currently negotiating additional supplies with the United States, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates.

In the news conference, Pompeo also said Belarus has made “real progress” in reforms, including on human rights, but that more needs to be done to bring about a lifting of U.S. sanctions. “Further progress in those areas and others is the only path towards lifting U.S. sanctions,” he said.

Makei acknowledged that Belarus recognized the necessity of making changes. "Belarus is probably not a most ideal country in this regard, and we do understand that we must implement some reforms in many areas, including the area of human rights — and we are doing this," he said.

Since Lukashenko came to power in 1994, Belarus has suppressed opposition and its human rights record has been widely criticized. Then-U.S. Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice in 2005 called Belarus “Europe's last dictatorship.”

Pompeo says US can supply Belarus with 100% of oil, gas

 

[northern watch]

Moscow Reacts Warily to NATO’s Largest Military Exercise in 25 Years
Publication: Eurasia Daily Monitor Volume: 17 Issue: 11
By: Roger McDermott
January 29, 2020 05:18 PM Age: 2 days

Russia’s political-military leadership frequently criticizes the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) for its enlargement and for staging military exercises close to Russian borders. This pattern has intensified since Russia’s intervention in Ukraine in 2014 and the subsequent downturn in its relations with the United States and its allies. Surprisingly, therefore, Moscow’s official reaction has been somewhat muted during the current run up to the active phases of NATO’s largest exercise in Europe in 25 years—though some Russian military experts have been making critical comments to the media. On January 23, the US Department of Defense confirmed that a redeployment of United States military personnel had commenced, transferring forces from the homeland to Europe as part of the NATO exercise Defender Europe 2020. The wide-spanning maneuvers will focus on the Baltic States, Poland and Georgia, involving more than 36,000 personnel from 11 countries (Lenta.ru, January 26, 2020).

Russian news outlets have highlighted that this year’s Defender Europe exercise scenario is based on a war breaking out on the continent in 2028, between NATO and an enemy close to its borders. Additional reports stressed the scale of the exercise, with 28,000 US military personnel participating, including the deployment of 20,000 from the United States. Referring to the magnitude of the drills, Vadim Kozyulin, a professor at the Russian Academy of Military Sciences, compared them to the 1983 Able Archer, which resulted in Soviet forces being placed on alert. Despite the scale of Defender Europe 2020 not even coming close to Able Archer 1983, a number of the upcoming exercise’s features may well cause concern for the Russian defense establishment (Lenta.ru, January 26, 2020). Kozyulin asserted, “Such large-scale exercises will seriously aggravate the situation. Moreover, the main events will be held in Poland, Georgia and the Baltic countries, which not only border Russia, but also [exhibit] an unfriendly attitude toward our country” (Km.ru, January 27).

These reports also stressed a number of aspects of the exercise that may help explain the lack of an official response from Moscow thus far. Defender Europe will become an annual NATO exercise with a large-scale iteration planned for even-numbered years and smaller versions occurring in between. US military personnel will constitute the bulk of the force this year, with European allies collectively providing only 8,000 personnel. As Russian analysts expect, moving the forces, equipment and hardware will prove quite challenging to the North Atlantic Alliance forces. Moreover, Defender Europe 2020 is the first exercise of its kind, which may have persuaded Russia’s defense leadership to cautiously study the exercise in all its various elements before responding to it (Km.ru, January 27, 2020; Lenta.ru, January 26, 2020; Rusvesna.su, January 25, 2020).

In a detailed commentary in Izvestia, the Moscow-based military analyst Anton Lavrov assesses the implications of the exercise, and identifies areas that will be closely monitored by Russia. Lavrov notes that Defender Europe will work out how the Alliance will fight a “war of the future” by testing an experimental strategy and some of its latest military equipment, adding, “Almost 500 American tanks, self-propelled guns and heavy infantry fighting vehicles, hundreds of aircraft, [as well as] tens of thousands of wheeled vehicles will take part in the exercises.” The force buildup for the maneuvers will continue until April, and then NATO will conduct a series of drills forming part of the overall exercise. Crucially, this will provide an opportunity for the US to road-test its latest doctrinal development, namely “multi-domain battle,” which adds space and cyberspace to the traditional domains of land, sea and air. Lavrov states, “The concept will be tested in a series of command and staff exercises of the allied forces” (Izvestia, January 26, 2020). The exercise divides into three related elements: transferring 20,000 US troops from the homeland to Europe and back again, moving US personnel based in Europe, and conducting a series of smaller exercises alongside allied forces.

Lavrov also points to the fact that Defender Europe 2020 will rehearse both defensive and offensive operations. One feature of the offensive operational aspects relates to US airborne forces conducting three joint airborne assault landings. In each case, the leading role is assigned to US forces. In the drop into Latvia, they will be joined by forces from Spain and Italy; in Lithuania, they are aided by personnel from Poland; and an additional multilateral airdrop is planned for Georgia (Izvestia, January 26, 2020).

As noted, one key challenge relates to the logistical tasks of moving troops and equipment over such vast distances. US military personnel and equipment will land at airports across Europe and seaports in Antwerp (Belgium), Vlissingen (Netherlands), Bremerhaven (Germany) and Paldiski (Estonia). Russian military expert Vyacheslav Shurygin explained the nature of the challenge: “The transport infrastructure of Europe has not encountered such large-scale movements of military equipment for a long time.” Indeed, the redeployment of forces and hardware involved cannot be compared to standard US battle group rotations (Izvestia, January 26, 2020).

Clearly, one of the objectives of the exercise is to assess the efficiency of these deployments into a potential theater of military operations. Lavrov adds, “Even for the modern US Army, the transfer of heavy tank and infantry divisions from continent to continent is a difficult, lengthy and expensive task. Twenty thousand units of equipment that the Americans will use in the maneuvers will arrive from the US, and another 13,000 will be received by the military from storage bases on the spot. In Europe, there are now four large storages of American military equipment. Each one has everything, from tanks and artillery to trucks and medical vehicles, to equip a tank brigade. Another similar base is being built in Poland and will be commissioned in 2021” (Izvestia, January 26, 2020).

One commentary in the Russian media stressed not only that NATO was deploying forces for exercises close to Russia’s borders but pointedly also referenced Belarus, which fits with Moscow’s scenario planning for its Zapad series of strategic military exercises: “However, the fact that such a powerful group of US and NATO forces is practicing deployments near the borders of Belarus and Russia, against the background of a growing American military presence in Poland and the Baltic countries, is a matter of concern” (Rusvesna.su, January 25, 2020). It remains to be seen whether Russia’s political-military leadership will continue to be cautious about Defender Europe, restricting its criticism to public rhetoric, or if it will ultimately try to engage the Alliance in political or information warfare on this front.

Moscow Reacts Warily to NATO’s Largest Military Exercise in 25 Years - Jamestown

 

[northern watch]

Darren of Plymouth ‏ @DarrenPlymouth 7h7 hours ago

Less than a full 24 hours after leaving the #EU and our Commonwealth is already growing, now 54 countries in our global organisation. Why were we in the #EU again? #BritishIndependence and #UKCommonwealth

 

[Plain Jane]

This is fascinating!

Sinn Fein draw level atop opinion poll days from Irish election

Irish nationalists Sinn Fein surged ahead of the governing Fine Gael party to draw level at the top of an opinion poll a week before an election that looks set to be a major breakthrough for the former political wing of the Irish Republican Army.

www.reuters.com

NEWS
FEBRUARY 1, 2020 / 7:08 PM / UPDATED 21 MINUTES AGO
Sinn Fein draw level atop opinion poll days from Irish election


3 MIN READ

DUBLIN (Reuters) - Irish nationalists Sinn Fein surged ahead of the governing Fine Gael party to draw level at the top of an opinion poll a week before an election that looks set to be a major breakthrough for the former political wing of the Irish Republican Army.
The Business Post/Red C poll put the left-wing Sinn Fein up five percentage points in the space of a week to 24% and level with the center-right Fianna Fail, which fell two points. Support for Fine Gael dipped by the same amount to 21%.
Sinn Fein stood at 11% in the last Business Post/Red C poll before Prime Minister Leo Varadkar called the Feb. 8 election that has focused on the high cost of housing and deficiencies in healthcare in the European Union’s fastest growing economy.
Setting out her party’s priorities in Dublin on Sunday, Sinn Fein leader Mary Lou McDonald said voters had an opportunity to disrupt the political balance that has seen Fianna Fail and Fine Gael swap power since the foundation of the state.
“Fianna Fail and Fine Gael have been in power in this state for almost a century. They’ve had it all their own way and they’ve had their chance,” she said.
Running fewer candidates than it did in the 2016 election and around half the number being fielded by both Fine Gael and Fianna Fail, all 42 Sinn Fein candidates would likely have to be elected to the 160-seat chamber to give it a shot at emerging as the largest party.
Such a scenario remains highly improbable, analysts say.

However a marked improvement on its 22 outgoing seats would put pressure on the two traditionally dominant parties to drop their refusal to govern with Sinn Fein, both due to the party’s IRA links and its opposing economic policies.
Speaking on BBC’s Andrew Marr Show on Sunday, Leo Varadkar said “you won’t see a coalition between my party and Sinn Fein, that’s not going to happen”.
“The likelihood is it’s actually going to be very difficult to form a government over the next couple of months.”
The other option is a second successive minority government, this time more likely led by Fianna Fail but needing another “confidence and supply” deal with Fine Gael.
The two historic rivals have never gone into coalition government together and Fianna Fail still resists such a move.
All other opinion polls so far during the campaign have put Fianna Fail in front on its own, with most showing Sinn Fein closing in on Fine Gael in second place.

“The crucial campaign momentum is with Sinn Fein, and appears founded on a desire for fundamental change in the established order,” said Red C chief executive Richard Colwell.
“What is apparent is that, on these numbers, it is going to be difficult for any party to form a government unless they go into coalition with each other. The alternative is that we could be having another election very soon.”
Reporting by Padraic Halpin and Graham Fahy; Editing by Daniel Wallis and Andrew Heavens
Our Standards:The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.
MORE FROM REUTERS

 

[Plain Jane]

Paradise lost looms for German farmers as swine fever nears

The German state of Brandenburg has erected about 120 km (75 miles) of electric fencing to prevent wild boars infected with African swine fever (ASF) from straying across the border from Poland and infecting its pig herd.

www.reuters.com

NEWS
FEBRUARY 2, 2020 / 7:30 PM / UPDATED 11 HOURS AGO
Paradise lost looms for German farmers as swine fever nears

Michael Hogan
5 MIN READ

TAUCHE, Germany (Reuters) - The German state of Brandenburg has erected about 120 km (75 miles) of electric fencing to prevent wild boars infected with African swine fever (ASF) from straying across the border from Poland and infecting its pig herd.

Hans-Christian Daniels doesn’t think the barrier will work.

“It looks rather inevitable that swine fever will come,” said Daniels, whose farm near Tauche, close to the Polish border, has 11,000 pigs. “This could cause a dramatic fall in prices.”

ASF, which has led to the deaths of a quarter of the world’s pigs in China and roiled the global meat industry, is dangerously close to Germany, Europe’s largest pork producer.

A case of the viral disease was discovered in a wild boar in Poland just 12 km from the German border last month.

A confirmed case in Germany could prompt an import ban, ending the boom times for local pig farmers, who have seen exports to China, the world’s biggest consumer of pork, jump due to outbreaks of ASF in Asia. It could also have knock-on effects in the Netherlands and Denmark, where the main suppliers of piglets for Germany are based.

Farmers such as Daniels have taken strict steps to ward off the disease but the biggest risk factor is from wild boars that roam the fields and forests along the German-Polish border feeding on nuts and acorns. They have already helped infect around 10 countries in eastern Europe, with Poland recording 55 outbreaks of ASF in wild boars in December alone.

“We do not know exactly how many wild boar we have in Brandenburg but their numbers have been increasing in recent years,” said Anja Semmele of the Brandenburg hunting association. “Our region is something of a paradise for wild boar, with a mix of forests and farming.”

“They run very quickly and hunters need a good level of marksmanship to hit and kill the animal humanely.”


POTENTIALLY LARGE LOSSES
ASF is a highly contagious viral disease that kills almost all the pigs it infects but does not harm humans. It has been spreading across eastern Europe but is doing the greatest damage in Asia and has devastated pig farms in China in the past year, reshaping global meat trade and raising prices.

China’s pork output has slumped to a 16-year low as herds were culled to stamp out the disease, leading to a surge in imports of pork, beef and chicken to fill the gap. [nL4N29M0NH]

Germany’s pork exports to China rose 43% year-on-year in the first seven months of 2019 and it was Germany’s single biggest foreign market.

Asian countries, including China, regularly impose import bans on pork from regions where ASF has been discovered and German pig farmers could face huge losses from both the drop in exports and costs arising from methods to combat the disease if it is found in Germany, said farmers’ association DBV.

“It is difficult to estimate how high the damage will be for German pig farmers,” said DBV Secretary General Bernhard Kruesken. “But we estimate at least a triple-digit million euro sum.”

Any export ban on German pork would also have knock-on effects for other European countries.

“The main suppliers of piglets for Germany in the EU are Denmark and the Netherlands. That means there will be effects in the Dutch and Danish markets quite immediately,” said Thomas Sanchez, a policy advisor with responsibility for pigmeat at EU farmers group, Copa Cogeca.

To help deal with the threat of ASF, German and Polish agriculture ministries are considering creating a fenced corridor on both sides of their border and a “drastic” reduction in wild boar numbers by relaxing rules on shooting them. [nL8N29Q2NF]


The Brandenburg fence was built in December and is designed to be temporary. Another fence is being built in the border state of Saxony.

“We have found no signs that the fence has been broken through by wild boars and no sick boars have been found along the fence,” said Gabriel Hesse of Brandenburg’s state health and consumer protection ministry.

“There are hopes that the fence is effective, but these animals are remarkably strong.”

Reporting by Michael Hogan; Editing by Nigel Hunt, Elaine Hardcastle and Carmel Crimmins
Our Standards:The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

 

[Plain Jane]

A report on French police brutality here:

GOV/MIL - French police brutality under scrutiny

Fair use. French police brutality under scrutiny •Jan 24, 2020 FRANCE 24 English 1.07M subscribers SUBSCRIBE In recent months, France has seen a wave of protests - from the Yellow Vest movement to demonstrations against pension reform. While alleged cases of police brutality are on the...

xf.timebomb2000.com

 

[Plain Jane]

Zerohedge

ZeroHedge - On a long enough timeline, the survival rate for everyone drops to zero

www.zerohedge.com

Meet The "Moderate Rebel" Just Arrested In France For War Crimes In Syria

by Tyler Durden
Mon, 02/03/2020 - 04:15
4
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Over the past couple of years European capitals have been pursuing war crimes charges against anti-Assad 'opposition' fighters once widely referred to in Western press as "moderate rebels". In an irony which is certain to be ignored by the same US mainstream media that shilled for them in the first place, the CIA and Pentagon had for years through the first half of the war backed the anti-Assad jihadist insurgency with millions of dollars and weapons.
One such so-called 'moderate rebel' arrested days ago in France is Islam Alloush — a former leader and spokesman for Jaish al-Islam, which also happens to be the very Saudi-backed group that had been in control of eastern Ghouta outside of Damascus at the time of the alleged April 2018 Douma "chemical attack".
According to the AFP, Alloush was detained in the city of Marseille following criminal complaints filed last year by human rights groups, which detailed a history of war crimes, torture and kidnapping against civilians and activists.
Islam Alloush, leader of a Saudi-funded Syrian jihadist group. Image via RFS Media Office/Middle East Eye



He "is among the senior officials of Jaish Al Islam," who led some 20,000 combatants in the jihadist militia, and "caused terror to reign in the rebel areas it controlled, mainly in eastern Ghouta, which it lost control in April 2018," according to a joint press release issued by the human rights groups which helped track his whereabouts to the south of France.
Not only had he been freely moving about Europe for what appears to be at least a year... it gets better: this brutal jihadist warlord and terrorists was actually in France on a student visa.
According to international reports on the case:

The man, born in 1988, is said to be a former spokesperson for the group and was in France on an Erasmus student visa. He was taken into custody in the southern port city of Marseille.
After 48 hours in police custody, he was brought before a Parisian judge who charged him with "acts of torture," "war crimes" and "complicity in enforced disappearances."

The International Federation for Human Rights described the group that Alloush had long been spokesman for in a statement: "Mainly active in Eastern Ghouta, in the suburbs of Damascus, Jaysh al-Islam has been regularly accused of committing international crimes against the civilians living under its rule, starting in 2011 until 2018" — including the disappearance of four prominent human rights lawyers and activists.

EHSANI2@EHSANI22
https://twitter.com/EHSANI22/status/1223770412393402372

You can’t make this up

Jeish al-Islam spokesman, Islam Alloush’ s letter to université de Provence asking for EU-funded erasmus scholarship

He boasts about his 50k followers on Twitter

Presents himself as Researcher Specialized in #Syria ‘s conflict


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"The group numbered up to more than 20,000 fighters and carried out a reign of terror in the rebel areas it controlled, mainly in the Eastern Ghouta, until it lost control over them in April 2018," the rights organization said.


Among Jaish Al Islam's past exploits: putting Alawite civilians inside cages to use as "human shields":

It must be additionally recalled that it was this very group which first issued claims that pro-Assad forces launched a chemical attack on the town of Douma in April 2018.

Without a shred of evidence the mainstream media and the US government blindly ran with the narrative of "another Assad gas attack" (and the US unleashed over 100 tomahawk missiles on Damascus) — this based on the "trust" of Islam Alloush and others now convicted of horrifying war crimes.

 

[northern watch]

U.K., EU Fire Opening Salvos Ahead of Trade Talks; U.K. prime minister, EU negotiator deliver speeches that suggest clashes are ahead
Monday, February 3, 2020, 9:40 AM ET
By Max Colchester in London and Laurence Norman in Brussels
Wall Street Journal

Days after the U.K. left the European Union , both sides set the stage for what are likely to be difficult negotiations over their future relations.

Prime Minister Boris Johnson said the U.K. would accept a total break with the bloc—which would involve tariffs on EU-U.K. trade for the first time in almost half a century—if a trade deal can't be agreed by the end of the year.

An hour earlier, the bloc's chief negotiator, Michel Barnier , said the EU would seek a "highly ambitious" trade deal with the U.K., but that would depend on British guarantees to ensure fair competition.

The negotiations are being watched closely for how Britain handles its historic decision to walk away from the world's largest trading bloc. The talks will go a long way to defining whether Brexit is a radical move or a more graduated affair that will leave the two closely entwined.

The speeches suggest that the two sides will clash over what the EU calls the level playing field: standards that underlie the economy relating to issues like social, labor, environmental and government aid for companies.

Investors sold the pound, highlighting nerves about the economic hit the U.K. could take if it decouples with the EU decisively. Sterling fell 1.1%, buying $1.13.

Though Britain legally quit the EU on Friday, the terms of its future ties with its biggest trading partner are still to be defined. Britain and the EU have agreed to maintain the status quo in relations while those negotiations take place.

Mr. Johnson on Monday reiterated that those talks wouldn't be extended past the end of 2020, reviving fears that a comprehensive deal can't be nailed down in such a short time frame. Negotiations are expected to begin next month.

The bottom line for the EU is to ensure that the U.K. doesn't become a lightly regulated business hub that maintains preferential access to the trade bloc while undercutting its rules.

Mr. Johnson indicated that the U.K. would try to keep tariff-free access to the EU —but that it would prioritize having the right to set its own rules and regulations.

He said the EU needn't fear the U.K. would undercut its rules. "We will not engage in some cutthroat race to the bottom," Mr. Johnson said Monday, adding the U.K. had a better record in state aid than most EU countries. "The U.K. will maintain the highest standards in these areas…without the compulsion of a treaty."

Mr. Barnier said the bloc would seek a trade agreement with no tariffs or quotas on EU goods trade with the U.K. He said a trade and security deal would depend on the U.K. agreeing to guarantee "open and fair" competition, including commitments on climate, tax, state aid and labor standards "over the long term."

He also said the bloc was looking for an agreement on services with "wide sectoral coverage" including digital trade, public procurement, telecoms and business services.

However, Mr. Barnier said there would have to be customs and regulatory checks on U.K. goods coming to the EU in future and that the bloc would make its own unilateral decisions on whether Britain's financial-services regulation was equivalent to the standards the EU demand and whether the U.K.'s data-privacy standards were considered strong enough to allow data exchanges.

In what is expected to be another sensitive area for the talks, Mr. Barnier said an agreement must include a deal on fisheries including "reciprocal access" to fishing markets and waters on both sides of the channel.

Mr. Johnson said the U.K. was ready to consider an agreement on fisheries. "But it must reflect the fact that the U.K. will be an independent coastal state at the end of this year 2020, controlling our own waters."

He proposed annual negotiations with the EU , using the latest scientific data, "ensuring that British fishing grounds are first and foremost for British boats."

During a half-hour speech in a room adorned with paintings produced as Britain embarked on its age of empire, Mr. Johnson made an impassioned defense of free trade. At a moment when global trade is slowing, "humanity needs some government somewhere who is willing to make the case for freedom of exchange," he said.

British officials say the U.K. isn't planning a huge deregulatory drive. Rather, the country doesn't want to layer on rules emanating from Brussels in coming years. Instead of diverging with EU rules immediately, it wants the right to diverge in the future. Even without a deal "the U.K. will prosper mightily," Mr. Johnson said.

Mr. Johnson made a pointed effort to turn the page on Brexit, refusing to mention the word in his speech.

Write to Max Colchester at max.colchester@wsj.com and Laurence Norman at laurence.norman@wsj.com

U.K., EU Fire Opening Salvos Ahead of Trade Talks

 

[Plain Jane]

French barracks attacker was a trainee soldier

A man who attacked officers with a knife in a French police barracks was a trainee soldier, officials said, in the second case in four months of a violent assault by someone from within France's security services.

www.reuters.com

WORLD NEWS
FEBRUARY 4, 2020 / 4:32 AM / UPDATED 30 MINUTES AGO
French barracks attacker was a trainee soldier


2 MIN READ

PARIS (Reuters) - A man who used a knife to attack officers in a French police barracks was a trainee soldier, officials said, in the second case in four months of a violent assault by someone from within France’s security services.
The assailant in Monday evening’s attack, at a barracks in Dieuze in eastern France, wounded one officer in the hand. Police shot and wounded the knifeman, who is now in hospital.
Shortly before the attack, a call was placed to the police from someone saying he was in the armed forces and was preparing an attack in Dieuze in the name of Islamic State, French media cited local prosecutors as saying.
In October last year, Mickael Harpon, an information technology assistant at police headquarters in central Paris, went on a knife rampage inside the building, killing four people before being shot dead.
A convert to Islam, Harpon had shown signs of possible radicalization before the attack but no formal investigation was launched and he kept his job.

Monday’s attack at the barracks is likely to again raise questions about how France can guard against radicalized people infiltrating its security services. It has a large Muslim community.

“It’s been confirmed that the attacker was a young soldier, two months into initial training and currently in his probationary period,” Armed Forces Minister Florence Parly wrote on Twitter.

“He was not on duty at the time of the incident. It’s now for the judicial authorities to investigate the motivation for this attack, which I condemn,” she wrote.

Paris has suffered major attacks by Islamist militants in recent years.

Coordinated bombings and shootings in November 2015 at the Bataclan theater and other sites around Paris killed 130 people - the deadliest attacks in France since World War Two.
In Britain on Monday, Prime Minister Boris Johnson said he would act to stop the early release of convicted terrorists from jail after an Islamist militant stabbed two people in a street attack in south London.
Writing by Christian Lowe; Editing by Giles Elgood
Our Standards:The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.
MORE FROM REUTERS

 

[northern watch]

Amichai Stein‏Verified account @AmichaiStein1 32m32 minutes ago

Exclusive: EU plan to issue strongly worded consensus statement warning Israel of repercussions of annexation was thwarted by a several of the 27 nations who opposed the language suggested, resulting in statement FM @JosepBorrellF only

 

[northern watch]

Turkish president denounces Russia's annexation of Crimea
Turkey's President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has denounced Russia's annexation of Crimea and pledged to support Ukraine's territorial integrity
By The Associated Press
3 February 2020

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy, left, and Turkey's President Recep Tayyip Erdogan review the honor guard during a welcome ceremony ahead of their talks in Kyiv, Ukraine, Monday, February 3, 2020. (AP Photo/Efrem Lukatsky) The Associated Press

KYIV, Ukraine -- Turkey's president on Monday denounced the Russian annexation of Crimea and pledged to support the territorial integrity of Ukraine.

Recep Tayyip Erdogan also said on a visit to Ukraine that Turkey will help build housing for 500 families of Crimean Tatars who have relocated to other parts of Ukraine after Crimea's annexation.

Crimean Tatars are a Turkic ethnic group indigenous to Crimea. Many have opposed Russia's annexation of the Black Sea peninsula.

Russia annexed Ukraine's Crimea in 2014 in a move that hasn't been recognized by most of the world's nations and that triggered Western sanctions against Moscow.

Speaking at a news conference after talks with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy, Erdogan emphasized that “Turkey doesn't recognize the illegitimate annexation of Crimea.” “Turkey supports Ukraine's territorial integrity,” he said.
Zelenskiy noted that Ukraine counts on Turkey to help win the release of Crimean Tatars arrested in Crimea.

Russian security forces in Crimea have arrested dozens of Crimean Tatars on charges of involvement in a militant Islamist groups — charges that rights activists have denounced as bogus.

Zelenskiy also said that he and Erdogan discussed possible natural gas supplies to Ukraine via Turkey.

Turkish president denounces Russia's annexation of Crimea

 

[Plain Jane]

French port town dreams of becoming post-Brexit duty-free haven

Authorities in Calais are lobbying the French government to create a duty-free zone for British shoppers that would cover the entire port town in northern France if a future trade deal between Britain and the EU heralds a return of trade tariffs.

www.reuters.com

NEWS
FEBRUARY 4, 2020 / 9:17 AM / UPDATED A DAY AGO
French port town dreams of becoming post-Brexit duty-free haven

Richard Lough
3 MIN READ

CALAIS, France (Reuters) - Authorities in Calais are lobbying the French government to create a duty-free zone for British shoppers that would cover the entire port town in northern France if a future trade deal between Britain and the EU heralds a return of trade tariffs.


Olivier Versmisse, manager of the "Olivier Vins et Compagnie" wine shop, poses in Frethun, France, January 31, 2020. Picture taken January 31, 2020. REUTERS/Pascal Rossignol
Mayor Natacha Bouchart anticipates Britain’s planned exit from the EU’s single market will revive the cross-Channel ‘booze cruises’ that saw Britons in the 1980s and 1990s day-trip to Calais to buy cheap cigarettes, beer and wine on board ferries.
“Our mayor is fighting for the whole town of Calais to benefit from the same duty-free rules as the ferries,” said Philippe Mignonet, one of Bouchart’s deputies.
The fortunes of Calais rely on the smooth flow of people and goods across the English Channel. The mayor’s initiative reflects the growing doubts in the town over whether a future trade deal will maintain the single market’s zero-tariff, friction-free movement of goods across the Britain-EU border.

Calais authorities were also exploring the option of tax rebates that would allow visiting Britons to reclaim VAT on hotel stays and restaurant meals, Mignonet said, a move aimed at encouraging them to spend more time and money in the town.

EU rules allow private individuals to carry unlimited amounts of alcohol and cigarettes across the bloc’s internal borders provided they are not for resale.

But after Britain ended its 47-year membership of the EU on Friday, it now has until Dec. 31, 2020, to negotiate a trade accord that will determine what tariffs, if any, Britain and the EU levy on each other’s goods, and caps to duty-free commerce.

CHOCOLATES, ELECTRONICS
Mignonet said junior budget minister Gerald Darmanin had so far pushed back against the proposed city-wide duty exemptions for alcohol and tobacco in the town center because of smuggling concerns.
“I don’t think they’ll budge on those,” he said, but added it could be applied to goods such as chocolate, perfumes and electronic goods.
Darmanin’s office was not immediately available for comment on Tuesday.
The looming trade talks between London and Brussels will be closely watched by the owners of the cavernous wine stores dotted along the highway leading out of Calais, where signs are in English and prices quoted in sterling.
“The worst case scenario? That would be to limit the huge volumes that British clients can take back with them to England,” said Oliver Versmisse, owner of the Oliver, Vin et Compagnie store that overlooks the Eurotunnel terminal.

Several million Britons used to make day trips across the Channel every year during the heyday of the booze cruise, local officials say, before duty-free shopping ended in 1999 following the creation of the EU’s single market.
Its renaissance on board vessels and in the ferry terminal would be “very good for the port”, said Calais port director Jean-Marc Puissesseau, who is overseeing a 700 million euro expansion that will double the port’s capacity from early 2021.
Reporting by Richard Lough; Editing by Gareth Jones
Our Standards:The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.
MORE FROM REUTERS

 

[Plain Jane]

'Taboo broken' as far right becomes German state kingmaker

A German state premier was elected with the support of the nationalist Alternative for Germany (AfD) and Chancellor Angela Merkel's conservatives on Wednesday, shattering the post-war consensus among established parties of shunning the far right.

www.reuters.com

NEWS
FEBRUARY 5, 2020 / 4:34 PM / UPDATED 4 HOURS AGO
'Taboo broken' as far right becomes German state kingmaker


3 MIN READ

BERLIN (Reuters) - A German state premier was elected with the support of the nationalist Alternative for Germany (AfD) and Chancellor Angela Merkel’s conservatives on Wednesday, shattering the post-war consensus among established parties of shunning the far right.

Thomas Kemmerich, a little-known liberal Free Democrat (FDP), became the first state premier elected with the support of the AfD, with whom Merkel’s conservative Christian Democrats (CDU) sided to the disgust of her national coalition partners.
The CDU and all the other established parties have previously ostracized the AfD over what they say are racist views held by some of its members.
Merkel’s Social Democrat (SPD) national coalition allies accused her CDU of backtracking on a pledge never to cooperate with a far-right party. The CDU rejected the accusation, saying it was not responsible for how AfD lawmakers voted. Wednesday’s ballot was secret.

“The events in Thuringia break a taboo in the history of political democracy in the Federal Republic,” SPD Finance Minister Olaf Scholz tweeted. “Very serious questions arise for us with the CDU’s federal leadership.”
CDU leader Annegret Kramp-Karrenbauer said her party’s national leadership opposed both cooperating with the AfD and joining a Kemmerich-led state cabinet. “The best thing would be for voters in Thuringia to have new elections,” she added.
The SPD is unlikely to ditch Merkel’s national coalition over the vote in Thuringia but the center-left party said its supporters would hold a protest outside the CDU headquarters in Berlin.
“The vote on the new premier minister in the state of Thuringia marks a new milestone in German politics and bears the potential of more shockwaves in national politics,” said ING economist Carsten Brzeski.

Kemmerich won 45-44 against Bodo Ramelow, the outgoing premier of The Left party. Ramelow’s leftist coalition failed to secure a majority in an October regional election.
Kemmerich, whose FDP is the smallest party in the regional assembly, said he would launch talks with the CDU, SPD and Greens on forming a government.
SPD national leader Norbert Walter-Borjans spoke of an “unforgivable dam burst, triggered by the CDU and FDP”.
Writing by Paul Carrel and Joseph Nasr; editing by Jonathan Oatis
Our Standards:The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.
MORE FROM REUTERS

 

[Plain Jane]

German court rules medieval anti-Semitic sculpture can stay on church

A German court on Tuesday ruled a 700-year-old anti-Semitic sculpture could stay on the exterior of a church in the city of Wittenberg, dismissing a claim by a member of the local Jewish community that it was defamatory and should be removed.

www.reuters.com

NEWS
FEBRUARY 4, 2020 / 12:27 PM / UPDATED 6 HOURS AGO
German court rules medieval anti-Semitic sculpture can stay on church

Joseph Nasr
3 MIN READ

BERLIN (Reuters) - A German court on Tuesday ruled a 700-year-old anti-Semitic sculpture could stay on the exterior of a church in the city of Wittenberg, dismissing a claim by a member of the local Jewish community that it was defamatory and should be removed.

The court case comes amid a national debate in Germany about rising anti-Jewish hate, after an anti-Semitic gunman killed two people near a synagogue in the eastern city of Halle last year.
The “Judensau,” or “Jew pig”, on a wall of Wittenberg’s St Mary’s church is a reminder of widespread anti-Semitism in the Middle Ages. It depicts a rabbi lifting the tail of a sow and peeping at its behind, while Jewish children suckle on the animal.
Pigs are considered unclean in Judaism, which forbids both their rearing as well as pork consumption.

The Higher Regional Court in Naumburg ruled that displaying the “Judensau”, which is 4 meters from the ground did not constitute an offence.
“The sculpture in its current context has neither an insulting character, nor does it violate the plaintiff’s personal rights,” the judgment said.
Sigmount A. Koenigsberg of Berlin’s Jewish community said: “We don’t want this ‘Judensau’ to disappear. It should be on public display but not on the side of a church. It belongs in a museum alongside clear historical context about anti-Semitism in the Middle Ages.”
St. Mary’s Church said in a statement, that it acknowledged with sadness, that there were those who would feel hurt and offended by the sculpture. But it added that in 1988, in consultation with the Jewish community, it had created a site of remembrance incorporating the “Judensau”, a plaque on the ground beneath remembering the six million Jews who perished in the Holocaust, and an information board.

The court said the information board clearly stated that the parish “distanced itself from the persecution of Jews, the anti-Judaic writings of Martin Luther and the mocking aim of the defamatory sculpture”.

It was the second time in two years that a court has ruled against the removal of Wittenberg’s “Judensau”, one of about two dozen such sculptures from the Middle Ages that still feature on churches in Germany and elsewhere in Europe.

The German government is trying to tame an alarming rise in anti-Semitism with stricter laws against hate speech online, tougher gun ownership rules and increased campaigns to raise awareness.

Editing by Alexandra Hudson
Our Standards:The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

 

[Plain Jane]

EU accession: Old aims, new rules – DW – 02/05/2020

The European Commission is trying to do right by everyone. France will get a reformed accession process, and Balkan states are being offered potential membership, as Bernd Riegert reports from Brussels.

www.dw.com

EU accession of Balkan countries: Old aims, new rules
The European Commission is trying to do right by everyone. France will get a reformed accession process, and Balkan states are being offered potential membership, as Bernd Riegert reports from Brussels.




Presidents Illir Meta (l.) of Albania and Stevo Pendarovski of North Macedonia met in Skopje in May 2019
France, the Netherlands and Denmark have been blocking the start of EU accession talks for North Macedonia and Albania since October. The start of those talks is long overdue, for even the new European Commission has endorsed both western Balkan countries' request for membership.
In order to break the logjam, the EU's new expansion commissioner, Oliver Varhelyi, presented a streamlined negotiation strategy for future accession candidates. Here are his core proposals:
– Condense the 35 current negotiating categories into six thematic groups. The aim of this is to expedite negotiations and improve "political control" of them.
– To more closely integrate critical nations into the accession process. The new plan proposes the European Commission and representatives from all 27 EU member states travel together to potential member states to get a firsthand view of reforms in the respective countries. Speaking in Brussels, Varhelyi said this would help avoid last minute "surprises."
– To delay, or break off entirely, negotiations with countries that lack progress on reform. French President Emmanuel Macron pushed hard for this measure. Although this option already exists, it is rarely, if ever, used.
– To more clearly define and publish conditions that potential accession states must fulfill. The issue of rule of law is to be at the core of all future negotiations in all six thematic groups.

The EU commissioner for enlargement, Oliver Varhelyi, visited Albanian Prime Minister Edi Rama in January in Tirana
Accession negotiations to start before May meeting
The expansion commissioner made clear he intends to begin negotiations with North Macedonia and Albania as soon as possible. The European Commission has said it will complete its positive report on North Macedonia and Albania by the end of the month in an effort to dispel concerns voiced by France, the Netherlands and Denmark. Oliver Varhelyi was forced to admit, however, that other member states have doubts, too, adding, "But none of them currently want to say that publicly."
Varhelyi, nevertheless, expressed confidence that both North Macedonia and Albania, which have been forced to exhibit patience in the face of repeated delays, will be given a concrete starting date for negotiations when a special summit on EU expansion strategies is held in Zagreb, Croatia, in early May.
Read more: Merkel to push for Albania, North Macedonia EU accession talks

Serbia and Montenegro can vote

Varhelyi's new proposals, which the EU's 27 member states must now approve, are not designed to be applied to currently bogged-down talks with Serbia, Montenegro and Turkey. "You can't change the rules in the middle of the game," said Varhelyi.

Still, Serbia and Montenegro will be given the option of accepting the new rules if they prefer. Accession talks with Turkey, which began in 2005, have been put on ice indefinitely due to a host of conflicts on the topic within the EU.

Read more: A 'no' from EU on Western Balkan accession could spark conflict


Watch video05:10
North Macedonia: Starvation Wages
North Macedonia's foreign minister, Nikola Dimitrov, is hoping for an EU decision before his country goes to the polls in April. He says it would provide an answer to the question of just what it is that Europe wants from countries in the western Balkans. Commissioner Varhelyi also admitted that EU member states were obligated to make good on their promise of membership if Balkan states fulfill accession requirements.

Albanian Prime Minister Edi Rama said he was looking for a process that provides more clarity and more fairness. Rama said that though critical, French President Macron's desire for reform could, "breathe new life into a floundering negotiation process."

Read more: 'If the nationalism returns, we'll lose decades," North Macedonia PM tells DW

Watch video04:46
What Western Balkan youth expect in 2020
Providing a perspective for Kosovo and Bosnia-Herzegovina

Commissioner Varhelyi also pledged that Kosovo, which is not recognized by all 27 member states, and Bosnia-Herzegovina, whose political system has exhibited a number of deficiencies, should be given a realistic perspective of eventually joining the bloc. "A credible possibility of accession is the key to political stability and development in our region," said the Hungarian.

It remains an open question whether France will now vote to begin negotiations with North Macedonia and Albania. According to one EU diplomat in Brussels, the foundations of the accession criteria and negotiations had changed very little despite Varhelyi's efforts. He hinted that the process had gotten a facelift, but the substance behind it remained the same. France, the diplomat suggested, had gotten what it wanted, and now it should yield.

 

[Plain Jane]

Bomb on British-bound lorry intended for Brexit day, Northern Irish police say

Northern Irish militants hoped a bomb they planted on a haulage lorry last week would take a ferry across the Irish Sea and explode in Britain at the time it left the European Union, police said on Thursday.

www.reuters.com

WORLD NEWS
FEBRUARY 6, 2020 / 7:30 AM / UPDATED 23 MINUTES AGO
Bomb found attached to UK-bound lorry in Northern Ireland, police say


2 MIN READ

LONDON (Reuters) - Police in Northern Ireland found a bomb attached to a haulage lorry in County Armagh, planted by dissident republicans and intended to travel across the Irish Sea to Britain, the police said in a statement on Thursday.
The police first received reports on Jan. 31 that there was a bomb in a lorry in Belfast docks which was due to go by ferry across the Irish Sea to Scotland, but were not able to find the vehicle in question.
On Feb. 3, police were told the name of the haulage company the lorry belonged to, and were able to find the vehicle after two days, they said in a statement.

The explosive device was found attached to a heavy goods vehicle in the Silverwood Industrial Estate in the town of Lurgan in County Armagh, Northern Ireland.

The police said the bomb was planted by republicans who do not recognize a ceasefire in Northern Ireland by the Provisional Irish Republican Army in the run-up to the 1998 Good Friday Agreement. The IRA had fought British rule for three decades.

“Dissident Republicans deliberately and recklessly attached an explosive device to a heavy goods vehicle in the full knowledge and expectation that it would put the driver of that vehicle, road users, and the wider public at serious risk of injury and possible death,” the Northern Irish police said.

Reporting by Elizabeth Howcroft; Editing by Bernadette Baum
Our Standards:The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

 

[jward]

Andrew McAlister
@Drumboy44DWS
11h
#DefenderEurope will increase strategic readiness by exercising the U.S. military’s ability to rapidly deploy a large, combat-credible force & equipment from the U.S. to Europe. The largest deployment of U.S. based forces to Europe for an exercise in the more than 25 years.
Quote Tweet

Baltic Security
@balt_security
· 11h

2nd ABCT, @3rd_Infantry, has been executing "fort to port" phase of the deployment process in support of exercise #DefenderEurope 20. As already announced, @SpartanBrigade is planned to deploy to Poland

and it will take part in a river crossing at Drawsko Pomorskie. Spartan Brigade (@SpartanBrigade) | Twitter

 

[northern watch]

EU signals willingness to ease Greek budget targets
The European Union's new economy commissioner, Paolo Gentiloni, says Greece's bailout lenders are now willing to discuss a request by Athens to ease strict budget targets that would help speed up the country's recovery
By DEREK GATOPOULOS and SRDJAN NEDELJKOVIC Associated Press
6 February 2020

Greece's Prime Minister Kyriakos Mitsotakis, left, speaks with the European Commissioner for Economy Paolo Gentiloni during their meeting at Maximos Mansion in Athens, Thursday, February 6, 2020. Gentiloni will have a series of meetings with Greek top officials in the context of the European Semester, the EU's cycle of economic and fiscal policy coordination among member states. (AP Photo/Thanassis Stavrakis)The Associated Press

ATHENS, Greece -- The European Union's new economy commissioner says Greece's bailout lenders are willing to discuss a request by Athens to ease strict budget targets that would help speed up the country's recovery.

While visiting Athens Thursday, Paolo Gentiloni said discussions could begin as soon as next month to ease the targets that were imposed to ensure Greece continues with its cost-cutting reforms and repays rescue loans provided between 2010 and 2018 by other eurozone members and the International Monetary Fund.

Gentiloni, who assumed office on December 1, said the Commission was waiting for the results of an inspection into Greece's public finances carried out last month in conjuction with the European Central Bank, a eurozone bailout fund, and the IMF.

"I think that there are all the (right) conditions to have a good report, and a good report could pave the way to decisions, and also to open the discussion about the possibility to change our targets on surplus," Gentiloni, a former Italian prime minister, told reporters in Athens.

As part of its commitments to bailout lenders, Greece has pledged to maintain a high primary budget surplus — the annual state balance before debt servicing costs — worth 3.5% of annual GDP through 2022.

But the Greek center-right government wants to lower that target, starting next year, arguing that the country can now tap bond markets at historically-low interest rates as its credit rating approaches investment grade.

Bailout lenders had previously been reluctant to discuss Athens' request, fearing it could undermine the country's reform commitment and ability to repay bailout loans as Greece struggles with a massive national debt of around 180% of GDP.

Christos Staikouras, the Greek finance minister, said the commissioner's remarks were a vote of confidence in the seven-month old pro-reform government.

"We are regaining confidence at home and abroad ... the economy is improving and stabilizing," Staikouras said. "Greece is returning to normal."

———

Follow Gatopoulos at Derek Gatopoulos (@dgatopoulos) | Twitter and Nedeljkovic at Srdjan Nedeljkovic (@SrdjanTV) | Twitter

EU signals willingness to ease Greek budget targets

 

[northern watch]

Brexit Britain Retakes Independent Seat at World Trade Organization

Getty Images

Victoria Friedman Breitbart.com / Europe
5 February 2020

The United Kingdom has retaken her independent seat at the World Trade Organization after formerly being represented by the European Union since the WTO was founded in 1995.

The UK’s ambassador, Julian Braithwaite, gave the country’s first independent speech after the country left the bloc on Friday, pledging to fix the WTO.

“The United Kingdom has long been a strong believer in the role of the multilateral trading system to unlock growth, reduce poverty and open markets for least-developed, developed and developing countries alike.

“The stability and predictability of this system remains vital to all of us, and the United Kingdom is committed to supporting the international institution that underpins it. There are big challenges facing the WTO today. It is important that these are addressed, and the United Kingdom will play its part in doing so,” Mr Braithwaite said in comments reported by the i newspaper.

Mr Braithwaite had taken his seat next to the United States’s representative. Mr Raab has reportedly instructed British diplomats not to sit next to EU representatives in a move to signal that Britain is going global and will not be operating in Brussels’ shadow.

International Trade Secretary Liz Truss had remarked on an independent Britain returning to the WTO, saying: “This is an historic moment which will give us an independent voice at the WTO for the first time since its inception.”
Ms Truss continued that the UK will do “everything in our power to help strengthen and reform it”.

The UK is looking to increase her international trade after the EU transition period comes to an end in December 2020, through signing free trade agreements with countries such as the United States, Japan, Australia, and New Zealand. Mr Raab is to visit Australia, Japan, Malaysia, and Singapore over the next few days to discuss FTAs.

While the UK also seeks a Canada-style trade deal with the EU, Prime Minister Boris Johnson has made it clear that without a good deal, the UK will simply trade with the European bloc on WTO terms by the end of this year if necessary.
Both Treasury Secretary Rishi Sunak and senior Cabinet minister Michael Gove have said that the UK does not need a deal to trade with the EU.

Brexit Britain Retakes Independent Seat at World Trade Organization

 

[northern watch]

Swedish municipality to ban on Islamic headscarves at schools
By Luis Fernandez
Voice of Europe
6 February 2020

The local government in the town of Skurup in southeast Sweden has decided to implement a ban on Islamic headscarves at primary and secondary schools.

The new policy is indicative of a seismic shift currently underway in Sweden which has seen the national populist Sweden Democrats – a party that has been boycotted by the globalist center-right and left for years – become the country’s most popular party, Sveriges Radio reports.

In the motion, which was proposed by the Sweden Democrats, supported by the Moderates, and approved by Skurup’s municipal council, bans “headscarves, burkas. Niqabs, and other clothing that is intended to hide students and staff”.

Loubna Stensåker Göransson, a conservative Moderate councilor who voted in favor of the Sweden Democrats’ ban proposal, told Swedish media that the ban is about equality and freedom from religious indoctrination.

Mattias Liedholm, the headmaster at Prästamosseskolan, a primary school for children aged 6 to 16, says that the new ban has prompted Muslim girls who never wore headscarves before to begin wearing them as a display of resistance.
“And we hear Muslim students talking derogatory about Jews,” Liedholm added.

Following the approval of their ban proposal, the Sweden Democrats took to Facebook, writing: “The message of this approved exercise, which is a question that is far more than the choice of clothing, is a matter of gender equality and what values we should have in Skurup municipality and in Skurup municipality schools. Here is the equality that applies!

Swedish municipality to ban on Islamic headscarves at schools - Voice of Europe

 

[northern watch]

Hungary: Military boats deployed to Tisza river to defend Europe
By Eva Janssen
Voice of Europe
5 February 2020

The Hungarian government has deployed military boats to patrol the river border with Serbia to stop illegal border crossing into the country through the Tisza river, a key point of entry for migrants trying to make their way into the E.U.

Hungarian officials say that close to 100 migrant invaders are attempting to cross into Hungary illegally from Serbia and Romania every day. The military has deployed 500 soldiers alongside Hungarian police to put a stop to it, the BBC reports.

“If they come in groups, they always have leaders. They have excellent equipment. We found night-vision goggles, and even a ground sensor,” Hungary’s Deputy Minister of Defence Szilárd Németh told Euronews during a recent interview
“Fence cutters, spades, maps, lists of addresses, taxi numbers – they have them all. They are very well prepared to cross the border of Hungary,” Németh added.

Last week, Hungarian border police managed to push back a group of 50 to 70 migrant invaders who stormed a vulnerable section of border fencing along the Serbian border.

Commenting on the border breach, Prime Minister Viktor Orbán’s chief security advisor, György Bakondi, said: “A violent, organized group of migrants tried to invade Hungary at Röszke. The Serbian-Hungarian border is under severe pressure, with more than 3,400 people having tried to enter Hungary illegally in January alone.”

“Illegal groups are still gathering now; this one was a blatantly aggressive and violent group,” Bakondi added.

Last, month Secretary of State of the Ministry of Interior Károly Kontrát noted that in 2019, 17,200 illegal migrants were stopped trying to enter Hungary. Kontrát has also warned that the number of migrants gathered on the Balkan Penninsula had reached 100,000, and had the potential to spark a migrant crisis similar to what was seen in 2015.

At the beginning of the year, the Hungarian government announced that it would be doubling the number of soldiers deployed to its borders.

Hungary: Military boats deployed to Tisza river to defend Europe - Voice of Europe

 

[northern watch]

Moscow’s Rift With Minsk Reaches Critical Point

Publication: Eurasia Daily Monitor Volume: 17 Issue: 16
By: Pavel Felgenhauer
February 6, 2020 05:34 PM Age: 59 mins

Belarus is officially Russia’s closest ally. In addition to joint membership in the Moscow-dominated Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO, a regional defense alliance) and Eurasian Economic Union, Belarus and Russia together form a Union State—a loose confederative structure initially intended to transform into a federation with a common head of state, legislature, flag, coat of arms, anthem, constitution, army, citizenship and currency. The treaty to form the Russian-Belarusian Union State was signed in December 1999, days before Vladimir Putin took over the Kremlin; it was promptly ratified in Moscow and Minsk, and eventually the border between Russia and Belarus opened for the free flow of goods and people. But no genuine integration into a full-fledged federation ever occurred. Belarus under President Alyaksandr Lukashenka has steadfastly maintained its independence, often agreeing to different far-reaching integration plans coming from Moscow, but dragging its feet and practically doing nothing to meet them. Minsk did not recognize North Ossetia and Abkhazia—the breakaway statelets Russia helped carve out of Georgia and formally recognized as independent after the August 2008 war. Lukashenka also refused to recognize the Russian annexation of Crimea in 2014. Annoyance with the long-serving Belarusian head of state as an unfaithful and unreliable ally has been growing in Moscow and, as of January 2020, apparently reached a breaking point, turning into a full-blown political and economic crisis (Interfax, January 24).

Belarus earns billions of dollars by exporting to the European Union distillates and other oil products produced in its Soviet-built oil refineries using duty-free Russian petroleum shipments officially earmarked for internal consumption.

Since Belarus maintains its own modest crude and natural gas extraction, there was always enough for both internal needs and export. But in 2018, Moscow approved the so-called “tax maneuver,” which will phase out crude and oil-product export duties, replacing them with direct taxes on Russian domestic producers. The “tax maneuver” was designed to increase state budget revenues and close the gap between internal and world market oil prices. At the same time, Russian oil refineries were offered subsidies to prevent socially sensitive gasoline prices from skyrocketing (see Jamestown.org, January 31). According to Belarusian Prime Minister Sergei Rumas, however, his country’s budget lost $130 million in revenues during 2019 because of the Russian “tax maneuver”; and that same year, Belarusian oil refineries (which obtained no similar state subsidies from either Moscow or Minsk) lost some $200 million. The price of Russian oil for Belarus for 2020 has yet to be fixed, and the price for natural gas shipments to Belarus has been agreed upon for only two months so far (Interfax, February 6).

In January 2020, Belarusian refineries received four times less Russian oil than previously agreed. According to Lukashenka, Russian oil suppliers are demanding “a higher-than-world-market price” (Interfax, February 6). Last year, Belarus asked Russia to compensate its losses due to the “tax maneuver,” but Moscow replied by demanding the 1999 Union State Treaty be revitalized and road maps for true integration be approved and implemented. Plenty of intergovernmental discussions on these issues took place throughout 2019, but without any final results. Lukashenka has refused to merge his country with the Russian Federation, and he accused Moscow of exerting undue economic pressure: “I do not wish to be the last president of Belarus” (Interfax, January 24).

A bilateral summit with Putin in Sochi is planned for February 7, 2020.

Lukashenka has gone on record to describe this upcoming meeting as a “moment of truth” that will make or break Russo-Belarusian relations going forward. Moscow has been amassing ever more economic pressure against its small western ally. Meanwhile, the Kremlin-controlled media is attacking Belarus’s president, accusing the Lukashenka regime of parasitism: exploiting Russian resources and good will while not delivering true vassal fealty in return. Lukashenka, in turn, announced that Belarus may diversify its oil supplies, buying from Kazakhstan, Norway, or the United States. Minsk also threatened to hike the price Russia pays to pump its oil through Belarus to Europe or to use the same pipelines in reverse, to import oil from the West while physically curtailing Russia’s export capabilities (Interfax, January 14; see EDM, January 14, 22, 29). Finally, US Secretary of State Michael Pompeo came to Minsk on February 1, 2020, providing Lukashenka an opportunity to internationalize his spat with Putin (Kommersant, February 3).

From January 31 to February 4, Pompeo visited the capitals of Ukraine, Belarus, Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan—a trip that raised alarm bells in Moscow. The Russian press described Pompeo as a scavenger or marauder, touring Russia’s geostrategic backyard and attempting to turn Russia’s closest allies against it, like the West purportedly already turned Ukraine. Pompeo’s venture into former Soviet Central Asia was further described in Moscow as an attempt to curtail Chinese as well as Russian influence (Gazeta.ru, February 3). President Lukashenka has been under US sanctions since 2005, while US-Belarusian diplomatic relations have been downgraded since 2008. Now, in Minsk, the two governments agreed to restore ties, and apparently an exchange of ambassadors is pending. Additionally, Pompeo promised the US could provide Belarus with needed crude, if the price is right. Of course, Lukashenka himself still remains under US sanctions (Whitehouse.gov, June 13, 2019), which gives Moscow some hope the US-Belarusian rapprochement that was recently on display is just part of a game to try to put pressure on Russia. The Kremlin believes neither party is serious and that Lukashenka’s Belarus can never leave the Russian embrace (Kommersant, February 5). In an apparent effort to assuage growing discomfort in Moscow, the Belarusian defense ministry has openly denied it was negotiating with the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) on creating a Partnership for Peace (PfP) training center in Belarus (Militarynews.ru, February 4).

In Sochi tomorrow, Putin and Lukashenka may once again agree on some compromise formula to resolve the immediate conflict over oil and gas shipments and prices; but underlying bilateral strains are much harder to fix. According to a recent poll, the proportion of Belarusians favoring an alliance with Russia has fallen from 55 to some 40 percent, while support for joining the EU has risen from 24 to 32 percent (Belsat, February 5). If Moscow continues its heavy-handed bullying, Belarus may follow Ukraine, where, according to a recent survey, some 70 percent consider Russia a hostile nation (Interfax, February 5). Russian authorities acknowledge the problem of growing “Russophobia” in former close and friendly countries, but no one seems to know what to do about it—other than to escalate anti-Western propaganda and raise the economic pressure on its most vulnerable neighbors.

https://jamestown.org/program/moscows-rift-with-minsk-reaches-critical-point/

 

[Plain Jane]

Brawl breaks out as Ukraine's lawmakers debate land reform

MINSK, Belarus (AP) — Ukraine's parliament is debating a proposed law to allow sales of the country's rich farmland, a high-tension issue that sparked a brawl among lawmakers Thursday.

apnews.com

Brawl breaks out as Ukraine’s lawmakers debate land reform

MINSK, Belarus (AP) — Ukraine’s parliament is debating a proposed law to allow sales of the country’s rich farmland, a high-tension issue that sparked a brawl among lawmakers Thursday.

Proponents say that allowing sales of farmland that are currently outlawed would significantly boost Ukraine’s struggling economy. Opponents argue the land could end up in the hands of businesses that would crush small farmers or of foreigners, including Russians.

President Volodymyr Zelenskiy, who supports land sales, says the question of allowing foreign ownership should be put to a referendum.

Hundreds of protesters gathered outside the parliament building during the debate. Inside the chamber, supporters of opposition leader Yulia Tymoshenko blocked the area at the front while she occupied the speaker’s seat. The confrontation ended in a scuffle.

About 75% of Ukraine’s farmland belongs to small landowners who can lease it but not sell it. The rest is owned by the state.

Debate of the measure is likely to be lengthy because lawmakers have proposed some 4000 amendments to it.

 

[Plain Jane]

Zerohedge

ZeroHedge - On a long enough timeline, the survival rate for everyone drops to zero

www.zerohedge.com

Thuringia - Patient Zero For Germany's Revolution?

by Tyler Durden
Fri, 02/07/2020 - 03:30
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Authored by Tom Luongo via Gold, Goats, 'n Guns blog,
German politics is in turmoil. State elections last fall left Chancellor Angela Merkel weakened, forcing her Christian Democratic Union (CDU) to make an unwanted coalition in Brandenburg with the Social Democrats (SPD) and the Greens.

The surge in the former East German states of Merkel’s political nemesis, Alternative for Germany (AfD), complicates an already complicated web of tenuous alliances to allow Merkel’s CDU to remain in power.



That surge in AfD’s support reached crisis proportions recently in Thuringia. Last fall Die Linke (31.0%) and AfD (23.4%) took a majority in Thuringia. While both are committed euroskeptics, they are also oil and water.
Die Linke is a committed leftist party while AfD is a more populist center-right party, characterized by histrionic German and European media as the far-right bogeyman of Germany’s Nazi past.
Merkel’s CDU (21.0%) came in third.
For months since the election ended with no clear path to a majority government because the establishment parties refuse to work with AfD, the parties have wrangled to try and cobble together a coalition.

And after two noncommittal ballots the deadlock was broken by AfD backing the Free Democrat (FDP) candidate Thomas Kemmerlich. Chaos ensued.

Their plans were unexpectedly halted on Wednesday when the AfD sided with the CDU and pro-business Free Democratic Party (FDP) to narrowly outvote Ramelow’s candidacy and elect FDP’s Thomas Kemmerich instead.
The move instantaneously sent shockwaves across Germany, creating a rift between Thuringia’s CDU branch and its leadership in Berlin. CDU’s chief and Federal Defense Minister Annegret Kramp-Karrenbauer accused her colleagues of breaking rank by violating the party’s usual policy of avoiding any cooperation with the anti-establishment and anti-migrant AfD.

AfD pulled support for their own candidate and backed Kemmerlich, freezing the Greens, who barely qualified for even one seat, out of the government.
The untenable situation in Thuringia finally blew up in Merkel’s face. Denying the existence of nearly a quarter of its electorate in coalition talks is ultimately slow-motion political suicide.
It is yet another example of the desperation of German political elites to hold onto power.

They did this successfully in Brandenburg but only by doing there what Merkel couldn’t do at the national level in 2017, agree to a deal with the SPD and Greens.
AfD is here to stay, especially in the former East German states. The left parties are fluid and Merkel keeps using the CDU’s nominal center-right status as a cudgel to strong arm her preferred results.
The more this happens, the harder opposition gets. And the result in Thuringia was local CDU members, in revolt against Merkel’s prohibition against working with AfD, defied her to stymie the Die Linke/SPD/Green minority coalition that was supposed to win.
In the end, why is Merkel so angry about this result, beyond the obvious issues within her own party? Why did she force Kemmerlich to dissolve the government and go for snap elections in Thuringia?

It has everything to do with the German upper house, the Bundesrat. I covered this back in November after the vote. Merkel has a de facto alliance with the Greens to ensure control over the Bundesrat and, by extension, the Bundestag.

As was pointed out to me by German political observers the game Merkel has been playing by working with the SPD in the Bundestag only works if she keeps the Greens in the Bundsrat happy.
But because of the nature of the Bundesrat, where state delegation must vote as a block, up until Thuringia the Greens held veto power over 37 out of 69 seats there and could stop all legislation cold.
But those four seats now will likely go to someone else and this defection by CDU party members in Thuringia threatens a constitutional crisis in Germany if AfD make it into the Bundesrat.

Adding the Greens to Brandenburg was meant to offset the potential loss in Thuringia. So that the current Bundesrat map looks like this with the Greens holding 41 seats plus potentially 4 more from Thuringia.


This lays bare the reality that Merkel has been using the Greens to push her EU agenda without looking like it’s her doing so. This gives her domestic political cover.
The Greens losing out of Thuringia bring them to 41 seats.
But here’s the real rub and no one in German media will report on it but it is happening. AfD has formally challenged the apportionment of seats in Hesse where the CDU and the Greens have a tenuous alliance and a majority of just one seat.
That challenge could, and likely will, bring down the government in Hesse. As the body overseeing this there isn’t a political body. It’s an administrative one. The laws are clear and once the case is decided upon Hesse’s five seats will be up in the air.
NEVER MISS THE NEWS

Ultimately, if/when that happens I expect the SPD will be added to the coalition and order restored from Merkel’s point of view. But since there’s going to be new elections in Thuringia the possibility exists that things deteriorate for Merkel there even faster.

That their only option was snap elections is deeply embarrassing for the establishment. It’s going to give wind to the minor parties while the SPD continues to rethink its coalition with a CDU that is losing control of its membership.

German politics is all about projecting consistency, from my understanding of things. Change is to be measured and gradual. But that comes from economic stability and prosperity. The rapid shifts in the German political landscape that has given rise to these events undermine that thesis.

Poor economic conditions in the eastern states is driving conservative Germans to AfD. Germany getting squeezed by Brexit and Trump’s hostility to Merkel doesn’t help matters. A Europe incapable of economic growth for German companies to export to is a third factor. And continued sanctions against Russia has stymied that market for nearly six years.

After nearly a decade of ruinous ECB policy and Merkel’s insistence on holding all challenges and changes in abeyance is coiling the spring for a political revolution against her soon.

What happens if AfD wins the majority in the new election? What happens if the Greens fail to hit 5% and not qualify for any seats? What happens if her CDU members in Thuringia make another deal with AfD?

These are questions, Angela Merkel doesn’t want to face but Germany needs to.

 

[Plain Jane]

Five Britons contract coronavirus in French ski resort

Five British nationals including a child have been diagnosed with the new coronavirus at a French mountain village, and health officials said they were checking who else might have been exposed, including at local schools.

www.reuters.com

NEWS
FEBRUARY 8, 2020 / 4:49 AM / UPDATED 19 MINUTES AGO
Five Britons contract coronavirus in French ski resort

PARIS (Reuters) - Five British nationals including a child have been diagnosed with the coronavirus in France, after staying in the same ski chalet and coming into contact with a person who had been in Singapore, Health Minister Agnes Buzyn said on Saturday.

The total number of people infected with the virus in France has now reached 11.

Buzyn said the group of people newly infected with the virus were not in a serious condition.

They had formed “a cluster, a grouping around one original case” after staying in the same chalet, in the Contamine Monjoie resort in Savoie in eastern France.

That original case was brought to our attention last night, it is a British national who had returned from Singapore where he had stayed between January 20 and 23, and he arrived in France on January 24 for four days,” Buzyn said.

Two of the apartments in the ski chalet were being examined, another health official told the televised news conference.

The infected Britons had been hospitalized overnight in the region, the ministry added.

Reporting by Marine Pennetier and Sarah White; Editing by David Evans and Frances Kerry
Our Standards:The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

 

[Plain Jane]

Irish nationalists Sinn Fein demand place in government after strong election showing

Irish nationalists Sinn Fein demanded on Sunday to be part of the next Irish government after the left-wing party secured the most votes in an election that leader Mary Lou McDonald described as a ballot-box "revolution".

www.reuters.com

NEWS
FEBRUARY 9, 2020 / 5:59 AM / UPDATED 27 MINUTES AGO
Political gridlock looms for Ireland after Sinn Fein surge

Padraic Halpin, Conor Humphries
4 MIN READ

DUBLIN (Reuters) - Ireland began counting votes on Sunday in a national election that an exit poll indicated would show a historic breakthrough for left-wing nationalists Sinn Fein but leave a fractured political landscape with no clear path to a governing coalition.

Sinn Fein leader Mary Lou McDonald shows her passport as she leaves the polling station after casting her vote in Ireland's national election, in Dublin, Ireland, February 8, 2020. REUTERS/Phil Noble
In a major realignment, Sinn Fein support surged 50% to bring it into joint first place on 22% with Fine Gael and Fianna Fail, the two center-right parties that have dominated Irish politics for a century, according to the poll released on Saturday evening after voting ended.

But Sinn Fein, the former political wing of the Irish Republican Army which has reinvented itself as the country’s main left-wing party, is likely to fall behind the other two because it fielded fewer candidates for parliament.

“I think it’s the most extraordinary exit poll in the history of state and the most extraordinary election in the history of the state ... because of the rise of Sinn Fein,” said Gary Murphy, Professor of Politics at Dublin City University.

Prime Minister Leo Varadkar’s Fine Gael and rival Fianna Fail are likely to be left slugging it out for first place in terms of seats - before starting what is likely to be a torturous process of forming a governing coalition in the 160-seat parliament.

“Obviously on these numbers it’s going to be very hard for any combination of 80 (seats) to be achieved, we’ll have to wait and see,” Fine Gael minister Heather Humphreys told national broadcaster RTE.

Counting under Ireland’s complex single transferable vote system began at 0900 GMT on Sunday with some results expected from early afternoon. The final and potentially decisive seats may not be filled until Monday or even later.

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The exit poll result was an improvement for Varadkar’s Fine Gael, in power since 2011, after opinion polls a week ago showed it in third place.

But the party’s strategy of focusing on economic growth and its success in negotiating an EU exit deal for neighbor Britain failed to capture the imagination of voters, who were far more focused on domestic issues like health and housing, where Sinn Fein focused.

COALITION CONUNDRUM
Fianna Fail has ruled out going into coalition for the first time with Fine Gael and both parties say they will not govern with Sinn Fein, meaning there is no obvious government to be formed, analysts said.

Both Fine Gael and Fianna Fail have said they will look to smaller parties to form what would likely be another minority government - requiring support of one of the two main parties from the opposition benches.

The parties have swapped power at every election since emerging from the opposing sides of Ireland’s 1920s civil war. They have similar policies on the economy and trade talks on the post-Brexit ties between Britain and the EU.

Sinn Fein has moved on from the long leadership of Gerry Adams, seen by many as the face of the IRA’s war against British rule in Northern Ireland - a conflict in which some 3,600 people were killed before a 1998 peace deal.

The party’s candidates were the biggest gainers by vote share, up from 14% at the last election in 2016.
“It’s clear that Sinn Fein are poised to have a very good election,” Sinn Fein’s deputy leader in the Irish parliament, Pearse Doherty, told RTE. “That’s the message we were getting, that there was a palpable mood for change.”
Editing by Frances Kerry
Our Standards:The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.
MORE FROM REUTERS

 

[Plain Jane]

In French Alpine village, families line up for coronavirus tests

Residents, a few wearing facemasks, lined up in a French Alpine village on Sunday to get tested for the new coronavirus as authorities sought to contain the spread after five Britons contracted the illness there.

www.reuters.com

WORLD NEWS
FEBRUARY 9, 2020 / 11:09 AM / UPDATED 8 HOURS AGO
In French Alpine village, families line up for coronavirus tests

Marina Depetris
3 MIN READ

LES CONTAMINES-MONTJOIE, France (Reuters) - Residents, a few wearing facemasks, lined up in a French Alpine village on Sunday to get tested for the new coronavirus as authorities sought to contain the spread after five Britons contracted the illness there.


A view of the house where five British nationals including a child, who have been diagnosed with the coronavirus after staying in the same ski chalet with a person who had been in Singapore, were staying at the French Alpine resort of Les Contamines-Montjoie, France February 8, 2020. REUTERS/Denis Balibouse
More than 100 people were being tested, including families whose children went to school with a 9-year-old who was among the five. People made way for those suffering from colds or flu-like symptoms to be tested first.
Residents appeared to be taking the process in their stride.
“We musn’t become paranoid,” said Emmanuelle Rieu, who said her child is a schoolmate of the infected British child.
“If they are infected, I would like to know and do what is necessary. Otherwise, I am not worried about what comes next but I would just like to know. And my children are coughing a lot so, of course, it’s on our mind.”

The new cases in France were diagnosed on Saturday after a Briton who had traveled to Singapore on business was diagnosed with the virus on his return to Britain. Health officials found he had been to Les Contamines-Montjoie on his way home and had shared a chalet with fellow Britons.
Authorities are tracing all of the people who potentially had been exposed to the virus, Health Minister Agnes Buzyn told a news conference in the village, which has a population of around 2,000 and is close to the large ski area of Chamonix.
Buzyn said there was no reason to believe the virus was circulating in the area.
Eleven people who stayed in the chalet, including the five who tested positive for the virus, are now under hospital observation. And a woman who shared a flight with the British man thought to have brought the virus with him to village had been hospitalized for checks, Buzyn added.
Ski slopes were still open on Sunday but two schools near the village will be closed this week due to the investigation.

Buzyn said that not all of the children were exposed to the same degree.

“It’s when they’re close, because they’re friends or because they shared a desk,” she said.

Reporting by Marina Depetris and Sarah White; Editing by Frances Kerry
Our Standards:The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

 

[Plain Jane]

Merkel protegee will remain CDU chair until a chancellor candidate is found: source

Annegret Kramp-Karrenbauer, the leader of Angela Merkel's Christian Democrats (CDU) who on Monday said she would not run for chancellor next year, will remain chair of the party until another candidate is found, a party source said.

www.reuters.com

NEWS
FEBRUARY 10, 2020 / 4:33 AM / UPDATED 2 HOURS AGO
Merkel protegee will remain CDU chair until a chancellor candidate is found: source

BERLIN (Reuters) - Annegret Kramp-Karrenbauer, the leader of Angela Merkel’s Christian Democrats (CDU) who on Monday said she would not run for chancellor next year, will remain chair of the party until another candidate is found, a party source said.
Kramp-Karrenbauer, 57, won a vote in December 2018 to succeed Merkel as CDU leader, but then struggled to stamp her authority on the party. Last week, a regional branch defied her by backing a local leader helped into office by the far right.
Reporting by Andreas Rinke; Writing by Michelle Martin; Editing by Paul Carrel
Our Standards:The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.
MORE FROM REUTERS

 

[Plain Jane]

Plain Jane notes that this headline could be about any of the three major parties and the body of the article could remain the same.

Sinn Fein eyes government, Irish unity poll after election surge

Sinn Fein on Monday said it wanted a major role in Ireland's next government after a record election showing, a move that would raise its central goal of reunification with Northern Ireland near the top of the agenda in Dublin for the first time.

www.reuters.com

NEWS
FEBRUARY 10, 2020 / 3:47 AM / UPDATED 2 HOURS AGO
Sinn Fein says preference is to form a left-wing government

DUBLIN (Reuters) - Sinn Fein’s first priority is to form a government with fellow left-wing parties, but the Irish nationalist party will also talk to the country’s dominant center-right parties Fianna Fail and Fine Gael, leader Mary Lou McDonald said on Monday.

“My first job of work... is to establish with other parties whether or not there are the numbers, whether there is the political will, to deliver a new government without Fianna Fail or Fine Gael,” McDonald said in an interview with RTE.

But she added that “of course” she would talk to everyone, including Fianna Fail and Prime Minister Leo Varadkar’s Fine Gael.

Reporting by Conor Humphries; Editing by Hugh Lawson
Our Standards:The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

 

[Melodi]

Basically the "first vote" (it is a complicated system here) went to a landslide for Sinn Fein (in numbers never really seen before) but they didn't expect this and only ran 40 seats so can't form a majority on their own.

But they've taken so many candidates from the other two parties who have "ruled together" for the last few years that no one can form a government alone.

I don't think it was so much that people all became leftists overnight, it was because they saw Sinn Fein as the only real opposition to two parties who have played musical chairs for 100 years and ruled together for the last nine or so.

Think Democrats and Republicans "Deep State types" coming together to "manage" congress and having pretty much a corporate, globalist agenda.

 

[Plain Jane]

Swiss government lobbies for EU ties as 'Brexit moment' looms

The Swiss government on Tuesday urged voters to reject a referendum brought by the right-wing Swiss People's Party to end an accord with the European Union on the free movement of citizens.

www.reuters.com

NEWSFEBRUARY 11, 2020 / 3:18 AM / UPDATED 2 HOURS AGO
Swiss government lobbies for EU ties as 'Brexit moment' looms
Michael Shields
3 MIN READ

ZURICH (Reuters) - The Swiss government on Tuesday urged voters to reject a referendum brought by the right-wing Swiss People’s Party to end an accord with the European Union on the free movement of citizens.

It could also end up kicking Switzerland, which is not a member of the EU, out of the Schengen system of passport-free travel and the Dublin accord on asylum requests, Justice Minister Karin Keller-Sutter told a news conference in Bern.

“We would really reach a point where we would have to start from scratch in forming our ties with the EU,” she said.


A rupture in bilateral ties would put Switzerland in a much tougher spot than Britain after Brexit, as the EU would have no duty to negotiate, she said.

“We would practically be a supplicant to our biggest trading partner”, she said. The EU absorbed 52% of Swiss goods exports and generated 70% of Swiss imports in 2018.

The referendum drive reflects unease with the influx of foreigners who make up a quarter of the Swiss population.

Net migration from the EU and EFTA countries Iceland, Norway and Liechtenstein increased by nearly 32,000 last year, half the number in 2013, Keller-Sutter noted.

Business leaders say they need skilled foreign workers.

The eurosceptic People’s Party - the biggest in parliament and with two of the seven federal cabinet seats - has long fought to take national control of immigration.

It is not uncommon for different parties in the Swiss government to pursue different policy ideologies as all important issues in the country are dealt with by referendums.

The party’s proposal would allow a year to negotiate an end to free movement, but chances of this are practically nil given the EU’s hard line on a policy tenet.

A “guillotine clause” means ending free movement would scupper other pillars in a web of 120 custom-made bilateral pacts, including accords on the mutual recognition of industrial standards, public procurement, agriculture, research, and transport by land and air.

The Swiss government has long struggled to revamp EU ties.

Brussels wants the Swiss to endorse a new treaty that would have Bern routinely adopt single market rules and create a more effective platform to resolve disputes.

The Swiss have dragged their feet for months while trying to forge consensus on how to proceed, annoying Brussels and triggering a row over cross-border stock trading.

The treaty ran aground amid opposition that spanned the normally pro-Europe center left to the anti-EU far right. Critics say the pact infringes Swiss sovereignty to the extent that it would never get through parliament or pass a referendum.

Reporting by Michael Shields; Editing by William Maclean and Alison Williams

Our Standards:The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.
MORE FROM REUTERS

 

[Plain Jane]

Bruised Irish rivals allow Sinn Fein government initiative

Ireland's Fianna Fail and Fine Gael let Sinn Fein proceed with trying to form a government without them on Tuesday, a process most acknowledged would ultimately require two of the now three largest parties to work together.

www.reuters.com

NEWSFEBRUARY 11, 2020 / 10:57 AM / UPDATED 3 HOURS AGO
Bruised Irish rivals allow Sinn Fein government initiative
Padraic Halpin
4 MIN READ

DUBLIN (Reuters) - Ireland’s Fianna Fail and Fine Gael let Sinn Fein proceed with trying to form a government without them on Tuesday, a process most acknowledged would ultimately require two of the now three largest parties to work together.

Sinn Fein, a left-wing Irish nationalist party, stunned the establishment by winning the highest number of votes in Saturday’s poll but its low number of candidates meant it finished between the two center-right parties by number of seats.

Sinn Fein leader Mary Lou McDonald said her party “won the election” and would try to form a left-wing led government with smaller parties and independent lawmakers, technically possible but a task even some of her senior colleagues said was highly unlikely to succeed.

Prime Minister Leo Varadkar’s Fine Gael and historical rival Fianna Fail, which have led every previous Irish government but fell to their lowest ever combined level of support, were also skeptical but happy to let others talk while they regrouped.

“Mary Lou McDonald is the leader of the party who got the most votes in the election and should now do what she says she’s going to do,” Health Minister Simon Harris of Fine Gael told national broadcaster RTE.

“She made a lot of promises, a lot of commitments, let her off now and see if she can try and form a government. If she can’t, I do think there is an obligation on the center of Irish politics, which still won a hell of a lot of votes by the way.”

Fine Gael has strongly ruled out governing with Sinn Fein, citing policy differences and the nationalist party’s role as former political wing of the Irish Republican Army (IRA)

The IRA fought against British rule in Northern Ireland for decades in a conflict in which some 3,600 people were killed before a 1998 peace deal.

Harris said a pre-election offer of a first ever full coalition with Fianna Fail still stood.

UNCERTAINTY
Fianna Fail insisted it would not enter government with either party during the campaign, although its leader declined to repeat earlier outright refusals to consider Sinn Fein, saying only there were significant incompatibilities on policy.

There are open divisions over such a tie-up among Fianna Fail lawmakers, who won 38 seats to Sinn Fein’s 37 in the 160-seat parliament. Fine Gael have 35 seats.


Analysts say it will eventually come down to whether Fianna Fail is willing to negotiate with Sinn Fein and if they can even then agree to a policy program its members would back. The process could take weeks or months, they say.

“The momentum is with Mary Lou McDonald, there’s no doubt about that, but at some point Fianna Fail will have to make a crucial decision as to which way to go,” said Theresa Reidy, a politics lecturer at University College Cork,

“If those kind of refusals continue, we are looking at a second election, although it is very unlikely any of the parties will want that. There are a lot of obstacles on the pathway to an arrangement (between Fianna Fail and Sinn Fein) too and that is why it is really very uncertain where we go from here.”

Additional reporting by Graham Fahy; Editing by Gareth Jones

Our Standards:The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.
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[Plain Jane]

Austria blocking EU Libya sea patrols over migrants, diplomats say

Italy is prepared to consider a resumption of maritime patrols in the Mediterranean, a senior official said, but diplomats said Austria is sticking to its objections, in a blow to European efforts to uphold a U.N. arms embargo on Libya.

www.reuters.com

NEWSFEBRUARY 11, 2020 / 2:20 PM / UPDATED 5 HOURS AGO
Austria blocking EU Libya sea patrols over migrants, diplomats say
Robin Emmott, Crispian Balmer
3 MIN READ

BRUSSELS/ROME (Reuters) - Italy is prepared to consider a resumption of maritime patrols in the Mediterranean, a senior official said, but diplomats said Austria is sticking to its objections, in a blow to European efforts to uphold a U.N. arms embargo on Libya.

The EU’s military mission Operation Sophia stopped deploying ships last March after Italy, facing an anti-immigrant backlash, said it would no longer receive those rescued at sea.

Italy is ready to restart the sea patrols, the country’s vice foreign minister told Reuters, but diplomats said Austria was still blocking the move, based on its position that people rescued on the high seas should not be taken to Europe.

Italy also insists the mission not focus on rescues while accepting the principle of renewed sea patrols, following a summit of world leaders last month in Berlin to seek a ceasefire among Libya’s two rival governments.

“The reactivation of Operation (Sophia) is possible but with a profoundly revised mandate and a focus on the arms embargo in Libya,” Italy’s vice foreign minister Emanuela Del Re told Reuters on Tuesday.

However, diplomats said that despite weeks of negotiations, Austria’s conservative government has retained its objections. The EU needs the support of all 27 member countries to restart the maritime patrols.

Austrian Chancellor Sebastian Kurz says Austria is a “target country” for migrants seeking a better life in Europe, similarly to Germany and Sweden and is opposed to the maritime patrols, arguing that rescuing people encourages more to come.

Diplomats said Vienna had rejected a compromise for the mission to resume in phases, starting with air surveillance over the sea, then moving into all Libyan airspace and then with a final phase using all available EU assets on air, land and sea.

At a news conference with his German counterpart Angela Merkel last week, Kurz said enforcing the U.N. embargo was “possible from the air”. However, EU military commanders who briefed EU diplomats this month warned that anti-aircraft systems in Libya made such overflights increasingly risky.

The EU’s top diplomat Josep Borrell, who has warned the bloc it may become irrelevant if it cannot act more assertively, hoped to reach a deal to revive the maritime patrols on Feb. 17 at a meeting of foreign ministers in Brussels.

Borrell noted in a speech to the European Parliament on Monday that Austria has “major concerns” about reviving a mission that many EU governments said had been effective in dissuading smugglers when first launched in June 2015.

Borrell told Italy’s La Repubblica newspaper that a compromise was sea patrols away from the central Mediterranean and migrant routes, “further to the east toward Benghazi, or even by the Suez canal. The arms come from the east.”

Additional reporting by Francois Murphy in Vienna and Marine Strauss in Strasbourg; editing by Philippa Fletcher

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[Plain Jane]

Zerohedge

ZeroHedge - On a long enough timeline, the survival rate for everyone drops to zero

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France Quietly Reintroducing The Crime Of Blasphemy
Profile picture for user Tyler Durden
by Tyler Durden
Wed, 02/12/2020 - 03:30
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Authored by Giulio Meotti via The Gatestone Institute,

France had just come out of the fifth anniversary of the massacre at its satirical magazine Charlie Hebdo than it was plunged into a similar case. On January 18, Mila O., a 16-year-old French girl, made insulting comments about Islam during an Instagram livestream.

"During her livestream, a Muslim boy asked her out in the comments, but she turned him down because she is gay. He responded by accusing her of racism and calling her a 'dirty lesbian'. In an angry follow-up video, streamed immediately after she was insulted, Mila responded by saying that she 'hates religion'".

Mila continued, saying among other things:


"Are you familiar with freedom of expression? I didn't hesitate to say what I thought. I hate religion. The Koran is a religion of hatred; there is only hatred in it. That's what I think. I say what I think... Islam is sh*t... I'm not a racist at all. One cannot simply be racist against a religion... I say what I want, I say what I think. Your religion is sh*t. I'd stick a finger up your god's a**h*le..."

What she said might be considered a bit raw, but does she have the right to say it? After all, Jews are called the descendants of pigs and apes without the speech police having a stroke.



Following her statements, Mila was targeted on social networks, where the video was widely shared; she received numerous death threats, and her name, address and the name of her school were made public. Mila was forced to leave school for her own safety.


Now under police protection, Mila is in such danger that no French school can, for the time being, accommodate her. "I can't set foot in my high school anymore and I can't even change schools because the whole of France is out to get me", she said. For not having understood what is clear to everyone -- that Islam is a "religion of peace" -- she is threatened with death, rape and having her throat cut.

"Are we in France or Pakistan?", asked French intellectual Jacques Julliard. Welcome to the France of 2020, where magazines run headlines such as: "Mila, 16 years old, threatened with death for criticizing Islam". Islamism is becoming pervasive among French Muslims. Since France has not fought it, its hold over France can only increase.

"Let's get to the point: the progressive intelligentsia wants to believe in multicultural living together, even when reality denies it and reveals a society where diversity is translated into social and identity fragmentation", wrote the Canadian philosopher, Mathieu Bock-Côté. When multiculturalism turns into threats to free speech, multiculturalists dangerously take the side of the Islamists. The case of Mila represents all the cracks in the disintegration of French society. According to the French journalist, Dominique Nora:

"A few weeks after the commemoration of the massacre at Charlie [Hebdo], the 'Mila affair' shows the disturbing asymmetry that reigns in France regarding freedom of expression, or more precisely, blasphemy."

Mila's story could have ended with the death threats -- as the death threats against Salman Rushdie could have ended 31 years ago -- if all the state authorities had immediately rushed to support Mila, and if the France as a society had condemned with one voice the barbaric aggression against the schoolgirl. The opposite happened. Avoiding "the stigmatization of Muslims" has become the official excuse used by the politicians to justify abandoning the victims of violent Islamist threats, such as Mila.


Not one, but two investigations were opened, one for the death threats received by Mila and the other against Mila for "provoking religious hatred" (later dismissed). The controversy redoubled when the general delegate of the French Council for Muslim Worship, Abdallah Zekri, said that the girl had "looked for" trouble: "She must bear the consequences of what she said. Who sows the wind reaps the whirlwind". Islamists are daily testing the resilience of our democratic societies.

Mila's controversy took on a new dimension when Minister of Justice Nicole Belloubet, after having first condemned the death threats received by Mila, declared: "Insulting religion is obviously an attack on freedom of conscience; it is serious." Unfortunately for Belloubet but fortunately for France, that is not (yet) a crime. Belloubet later admitted her "mistake". Nonetheless, the damage was immense. Ségolène Royal, a former minister and presidential candidate, piled on, saying that Mila had lacked "respect".

"No, you're not Mila; you, Mrs. Ségolène Royal, have no courage", tweeted the philosopher Raphaël Enthoven in response. Martine Aubry, the socialist mayor of Lille, asked Mila to "exercise restraint and avoid this kind of talk, even if the threats are unacceptable". France is rapidly going from laïcité (secularism) to lâcheté (cowardice); from freedom of expression to unconditional surrender. France keeps trying to procrastinate while Islamism thrives on the elites' rapidly abandoning their Judeo-Christian values.

There were even those, such as the historian of religion, Oden Vallet, claiming that Mila is "responsible" for future terror attacks.


A former cartoonist at Charlie Hebdo, Delfeil de Ton, after the 2015 massacre of his colleagues, shamefully accused Charlie Hebdo's late editor Stéphane Charbonnier of "dragging" the staff into the slaughter by satirizing Mohammed.

Mila's case resembles that of a French philosopher, Robert Redeker, who in 2006 published an opinion extremely critical of Islam in Le Figaro. Following this, Redeker, who was a teacher in a public high school in Toulouse, began receiving death threats by phone, email and through Al Hesbah, a password-protected forum with ties to Al Qaeda. "I can't work, I can't come and go and am obliged to hide", Redeker said from an undisclosed location. "So in some way, the Islamists have succeeded in punishing me on the territory of the republic as if I were guilty of a crime of opinion". That was the "fatwa in the country of Voltaire".

Fifteen years later, Mila's case shows how greatly the Islamists have indeed succeeded.

There are a few brave writers who have defended Mila. In an article for the Journal du Dimanche, the former Charlie Hebdo lawyer Richard Malka wrote about "Mila's case or the triumph of fear."


"There is no reaction from ministers and major feminists or LGBT associations, artists and 'progressives'. Turn your head, whistle, look at your shoes before choosing fashionable indignations that you will embrace with all the more ardor as long as they don't expose you to any risk".

Malka also wrote that "no human rights organizations has protested or expressed solidarity with the girl whose life has suddenly been plunged into hiding". Feminist organizations, so quick to denounce "toxic masculinity" and "patriarchal structures of domination", were also silent.

Today there are many countries where people are killed because they dare to criticize Islam. In the Islamic Republic of Pakistan, a country that punishes blasphemy with death, judges sentenced to death but later absolved Asia Bibi for that "crime". Today, in France, the country of the Declaration of the Rights of Man and of the Citizen, which always sanctified freedom of expression and the right to criticize religion and ideologies, some within the justice system -- in the name of a misguided, militant anti-racism -- are quietly and de facto reintroducing the crime of blasphemy. "The Mila Affair: Are we pretending to create a crime of blasphemy in French law?" asked an appeal published by Le Figaro.

Today, in France, using freedom of expression to criticize Islam is clearly an extremely dangerous act, even if you, like Mila, are a child. Those who disassociate themselves from Mila wear masks of submission.

Franz-Olivier Giesbert, an influential commentator and former editor of Le Figaro, accused Justice Minister Belloubet of appeasing Islamists, and compared her actions to those of the Vichy regime that collaborated with Hitler. "Is France still France?", Giesbert asked in an editorial for the news magazine Le Point.

"Some days you wonder. In Islamic republics such as Pakistan or Iran [Belloubet's comments] would be normal. But they are not normal in France, the country of the Enlightenment where there is a right to blasphemy".

If you count all the French journalists, cartoonists and writers currently under police protection for criticizing Islam, then, yes, France is turning into the new Pakistan. Éric Zemmour, the author of Le Suicide Français, is followed by two police guards wherever he goes; Charlie Hebdo's director, "Riss", and the remaining cartoonists live under police protection as does Philippe Val, the former director of Charlie Hebdo, who decided to publish the Mohammed cartoons in 2006. The journalist Zineb Rhazaoui is surrounded by six policemen. Already in 2002, two noted authors were forced to stand trial in France for their ideas on Islam, Oriana Fallaci and Michel Houellebecq.

Five major French intellectuals -- Elisabeth Badinter, Elisabeth de Fontenay, Marcel Gauchet, Jacques Julliard and Jean-Pierre Le Goff -- published a pro-Mila appeal in L'Express, calling out "the cowardice of justice and politics now obsessed with the acrobatics on the subjects of freedom of expression when it comes to Islam. We will pay dearly for this cowardice".

After the massacre at Charlie Hebdo, Pope Francis said, "Curse my mother, expect a punch", and blamed the cartoonists for their own murder. Islamists are winning the ideological battle and we are behaving like cowards. Will 16-year-old Mila have to be murdered to unify people enough so that the cowards can say "Je suis Mila" for 24 hours?

 

[Plain Jane]

Italian Senate lifts immunity of defiant Salvini over migrant boat

Italian senators voted on Wednesday to lift immunity for far-right leader Matteo Salvini, opening the way for a potentially career-ending trial over accusations that he illegally detained migrants at sea last year.

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NEWSFEBRUARY 12, 2020 / 7:52 AM / UPDATED 2 HOURS AGO
Put me on trial, defiant Salvini says in Italian migrant boat case
Angelo Amante
4 MIN READ

ROME (Reuters) - Matteo Salvini, leader of Italy’s right-wing League party, defiantly asked on Wednesday to be put on trial for detaining migrants at sea last year, even though the case could potentially sink his political career.

Senators were due to vote during the day on whether to lift Salvini’s immunity after magistrates said they wanted to charge him for refusing to let a group of migrants dock last July as he waited for other European Union states to agree to take them in.

Salvini, an anti-immigrant populist who was serving as interior minister at the time, could eventually face up to 15 years in jail if found guilty at the end of Italy’s tortuous legal process which normally takes years.

Conviction could also bar him from political office, dashing his ambitions to lead a future government.

With the vote in parliament almost certain to go against him, Salvini sought to make political capital out of the case, depicting himself as the defender of Italy’s national interests.

“I have chosen against my own interests...to go to court and rely on the impartiality of the judiciary,” said Salvini.

“Unlike others who run away, I do not flee and I will calmly await judgment, first of the courts and then of the Italian people when they get to vote,” he told reporters.

The byzantine nature of Italy’s legal system means Salvini faces no immediate risk, but the case could prove a regular distraction as other investigations start to pile up at his door.

Earlier this month another tribunal in Sicily recommended that Salvini should stand trial over a separate migrant stand-off dating from last August, with parliament expected to decide on this case later in the year.

POLITICAL INDEPENDENCE
During his 14 months at the interior ministry, Salvini made tackling migrant boats a priority, barring ports to rescue ships and threatening the charities operating them with fines.

In July, two weeks before he abandoned a coalition with the anti-establishment 5-Star Movement, he refused to let migrants disembark from the Gregoretti coastguard vessel, ignoring pleas from human rights groups to let the group come ashore.

Magistrates in Sicily say this was an abuse of power and amounted to de facto kidnapping. But under Italian law, former ministers cannot be tried for actions undertaken while in office unless parliament authorizes the investigation.

Senior League politician Giulia Bongiorno, who is an experienced lawyer, has publicly urged Salvini to fight to maintain his immunity, warning a trial could backfire on him.

In the Senate (upper house) on Wednesday she said parliament should not accept the court request as this would undermine political independence. “Senator Salvini, your destiny is at stake, but also the autonomy of political power,” she said.

The Gregoretti investigation echoes another case from earlier last year when magistrates sought to try Salvini over his decision to keep 150 migrants aboard a coastguard ship for five days in August 2018.

On that occasion, parliament blocked the request, with 5-Star rallying to his support, arguing that the decision to keep the migrants at sea was a collective one. This time, his one-time allies say he acted unilaterally without prior assent.

Reporting by Angelo Amante; Writing by Crispian Balmer; Editing by Mark Heinrich

Our Standards:The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

 

[Plain Jane]

No coalition without Merkel, say German Social Democrats

Germany's Social Democrats (SPD) signalled on Wednesday they could quit their coalition with Angela Merkel's conservatives if she is forced out as chancellor, piling pressure on their partners to avoid a snap election as they pick a new leader.

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WORLD NEWSFEBRUARY 12, 2020 / 5:41 AM / UPDATED 7 MINUTES AGO
No coalition without Merkel, say German Social Democrats
3 MIN READ

BERLIN (Reuters) - Germany’s Social Democrats (SPD) signaled on Wednesday they could quit their coalition with Angela Merkel’s conservatives if she is forced out as chancellor, piling pressure on their partners to avoid a snap election as they pick a new leader.

German Chancellor Angela Merkel attends for the weekly German cabinet meeting at the Chancellery in Berlin, Germany, February 12, 2020. REUTERS/Annegret Hilse
After Merkel’s protegee Annegret Kramp-Karrenbauer gave up her ambitions for the top job on Monday, the Christian Democrats (CDU) are embarking on choosing a new leader and chancellor candidate for the next federal election due by Oct. 2021.

The possibility of having a rival as party leader while she remains chancellor may be unworkable and force Merkel, who will not seek re-election after leading Europe’s biggest economy for around 15 years, to stand down early.

This could trigger an early election, not least because the SPD have made clear their coalition deal is only with Merkel.

SPD General-Secretary Lars Klingbeil said the party entered the coalition with Merkel. “And we will leave the coalition with her - as planned at the next regular federal election,” he said in some of the clearest comments yet from a senior SPD figure.

“I am aware of no other election date,” he added.

The fragile coalition has already come close to collapse several times and the selection last year of two leftists as possible new SPD leaders has left the alliance even more shaky.

Many lawmakers want to avoid the upheaval of an election during Germany’s tenure of the rotating presidency of the EU in the second half of this year.

Klingbeil said he expected the conservatives were aware of their responsibilities and was “not running away from the EU presidency”.

The SPD may find it impossible to work with at least two of the potential conservative candidates, Friedrich Merz and Jens Spahn, who are further to the right of the CDU than Merkel, although others may be more palatable.

While the SPD wants to stay in government with the conservatives for the full legislative term, it is ready to fight an election at any time, said Klingbeil.

Kramp-Karrenbauer threw the CDU, and Merkel’s plan for a smooth transition of power, into turmoil on Monday with her announcement which followed months of mounting doubts about her suitability for the top job.

The last straw came last week when a local CDU branch defied her and voted with the far-right to install a local leader.

Reporting by Madeline Chambers; editing by Philippa Fletcher

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