WAR Regional conflict brewing in the Mediterranean

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Russia-Turkey tensions grow over disputes on Syria, Libya​
Russia and Turkey are facing tensions on their warming relations over differences on Syria and Libya, where the two countries have clashing interests but could choose to cooperate for mutual interests, experts said.

Turkey has sent a delegation to Moscow to seek a reprieve after Russian-backed Syrian government forces stepped up an offensive on the country's last major rebel bastion in northwestern Idlib province, threatening a new refugee wave toward the Turkish border.

Turkish presidential spokesperson Ibrahim Kalin said Tuesday evening that Ankara asked Russia to establish a cease-fire in Idlib after the region has seen an uptick of violence in recent days.

"They told our delegation that they will make an effort to stop the regime's attacks within 24 hours," he told reporters.

Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan warned that the attacks are causing an exodus toward NATO member Turkey, which is already hosting the largest number of Syrian refugees in the world with 3.6 million.

"More than 80,000 people are fleeing the bombardment there and heading toward our borders," said the Turkish leader on Sunday, refusing categorically to accept more refugees, while he is under heavy domestic pressure for his refugee policy.

The offensive also threatens a cease-fire monitored between Russia, Turkey and Iran in this region. Turkey has deployed several hundreds of troops within this mission in Idlib.

Moscow and Ankara have also emerging differences on the Libyan civil war where they support opposing factions.

Turkey said it could send troops to Tripoli to support internationally-recognized Libya's Government of National Accord (GNA), with which Turkey has signed two cooperation agreements on maritime delimitation and defense, a move that sparked criticism from regional rivals in eastern Mediterranean.

Moscow is reportedly supporting Khalifa Haftar, leader of the rival eastern-based army, via Russian mercenaries.

"Turkey's attitude on Libya is the strong sign of an emerging friction in Russian-Turkish ties," said Kerim Has, a Moscow-based Russian affairs analyst, told Xinhua, anticipating that Moscow's support for Haftar would not diminish, "contrary to what Ankara wants."

The expert argued that differences over Libya could eventually make bilateral ties more fragile as both parties will try to consolidate their hands.

Also, the Turkish government is at odds not only with Russia, but also with leading regional actors such as Greece, Egypt, Israel and Syria.

Has also indicated that although it is unlikely to see a direct confrontation between Turkish and Russian soldiers in the North African country, the agreements between Tripoli and Ankara triggered Turkish-Russian tensions.

"Turkey is facing a scenario in which it could be involved militarily in a distant, foreign region which has no logistical or land connection to it. This carries heavy risks," Has commented.

Can Kasaboglu, director of the security and defense research program at the Istanbul-based think-tank Edam, echoed these concerns and said in a report that "presumably Turkey will dispatch an elite joint contingent to Libya soon."

Kasaboglu said that Turkey has limited options in the Libyan airspace except for deploying tactical armed drones as "Turkey does not have adequate naval aviation capacity to intervene in the Libyan conflict."

The escalation in Idlib also puts Turkey in a vulnerable position within NATO and Turkey's alliance with other members is frail over its military, political and economic rapprochement with Moscow.

Despite the escalation in Tripoli and Idlib, and the exchange of accusations between Ankara and Moscow, the pair are still expected to cooperate in Libya as they did in Syria.






 
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C

cowboy

Veteran Member
It may take time for some things to connect. Like for the Straight of Hormuz to become a one way street.
 
jward

jward

passin' thru
This sounds interesting...

Cat Retweeted

Babak Taghvaee
@BabakTaghvaee
·
1h

#BREAKING: #Turkey had plan to carry-out airstrikes against #Libya National Air Force bases in Al-Watiya, #Benghazi (#Benina) & #Tobruk using its F-16C/D Block 50+s and KC-135R tankers last night, but this never happened after both #Greece & #Egypt blocked their airspace on them

More twitter-verse talk about the above assertion...

Replying to
@BabakTaghvaee
and
@smmlibya
#THANK YOU #HELLAS #THANK YOU #EGYPT




Chrysotheras

@Chrysotheras
·
1h

Replying to
@BabakTaghvaee
Wannabe sultan Erdo, trying to outgrow his shoes will soon backfire and his subjects will pay the Procrustean price...




المستكشف

@lancol6
·
1h

Replying to
@BabakTaghvaee
Turkey are dispersed they are going to be bankrupt and they try to steal Libya oil like what they did with Syria




Ποθουλάκης
@k_paleologos
28m

Yes well, a 20% drop in GDP and counting.Their crisis appears to be deepening and without abating. Ergo clearly needs to make up the shortfall from somewhere!





Aminda The Kurdistan
@Aminda_BUT
·
1h

Replying to
@BabakTaghvaee
Turkey has a robust airforce, do you think #Greece and #Egypt would be able to confront Turks? What would be NATO's response if, for example, an F-16 been shot down? Do you have any idea?
 
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jward

jward

passin' thru
jward

jward

passin' thru
Erdogen broker a peace deal in Libya?! Surely that is just a random tweet, not even a remote possibility?...


EndGameWW3
@EndGameWW3

Erdogan: We are sending troops to #Libya next month.
10:39 AM · Dec 26, 2019·Twitter Web App
4
Retweets
6
Likes


Lezan
@Lezan62991188
·
5m

Replying to
@EndGameWW3
That will be the end of him hopefully




Ajay Kumar
@CaptAKJ
·
5m

Replying to
@EndGameWW3
Can GNA hold onto its bastions till then? BTW is there an attempt by #Erdogan to broker a peace deal bet LNA/GNA? That cd really be a big news.
 
H

Housecarl

On TB every waking moment
Egypt shutting the canal and its ports is the real story. That move is costing them money in real time they can't really afford.
 
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H

Housecarl

On TB every waking moment
danielboon

danielboon

TB Fanatic
MILITARY SITUATION IN LIBYA’S TRIPOLI ON DECEMBER 26, 2019 (MAP UPDATE)
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Military Situation In Libya's Tripoli On December 26, 2019 (Map Update)
Click to see the full-size image
A brief overview of the recent developments in Libya:
  • Clashes between Libyan National Army (LNA) and Government of National Accord (GNA) forces continue over the Police Academy in southern Tripoli;
  • Erdogan claims 2,000 Russian and 5,000 Sudanese mercenaries fight on the LNA side;
  • LNA warplanes struck several areas in Zawiah city.
southfront.org

Military Situation In Libya's Tripoli On December 26, 2019 (Map Update)

A brief overview of the recent developments in Libya: Clashes between Libyan National Army (LNA) and Government of National Accord...
southfront.org southfront.org
 
danielboon

danielboon

TB Fanatic
Turkey to Deploy Navy to Guard Tripoli as Syrian Rebels Join War
By
Selcan Hacaoglu
and
Samer Al-Atrush
December 27, 2019, 5:53 AM EST Updated on December 27, 2019, 7:13 AM EST
  • Ethnic Turkmen militia to support Libya’s UN-backed government
  • Deployments highlight Turkey’s increasing involvement in Libya
Fighters of a military battalion loyal to Libyan General Khalifa Haftar march during the morning assembly in Benghazi, Dec. 18.

Fighters of a military battalion loyal to Libyan General Khalifa Haftar march during the morning assembly in Benghazi, Dec. 18.
Photographer: Abdullah Doma/AFP via Getty Images
Turkey is preparing to deploy troops and naval forces to support the internationally-recognized Libyan government, joining a planned push by Ankara-backed Syrian rebels to defeat strongman Khalifa Haftar.


In a deepening proxy war, Turkey aims to send its Navy to protect Tripoli, while its troops train and coordinate forces of Prime Minister Fayez al-Sarraj, according to a senior Turkish official. Turkey recently signed a critical maritime deal with oil-rich Libya that serves energy interests of both countries and aims to salvage billions of dollars of business contracts thrown into limbo by the conflict.


At the same time, ethnic Turkmen rebel groups that have fought alongside Turkey in northern Syria are expected to reinforce the government in Tripoli imminently, a second official in Libya confirmed. Both people asked not to be named because of the sensitivity of the issue. The Libyan government had initially resisted the idea of such a deployment but eventually accepted it as Haftar’s forces began to advance on Tripoli, the Libyan official said. Bloomberg - Are you a robot?


With Egypt and the United Arab Emirates aiding Haftar, Turkey’s deeper involvement in Tripoli could complicate international efforts to end the turmoil that has gripped the country since the overthrow of strongman Moammar Qaddafi in 2011. Bloomberg - Are you a robot?
 
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