CORONA Main Coronavirus thread

[Countrymouse]

Little bird just told me expect rolling school closing within the next 6 weeks. Starting in cities and towns first then progress to whole state. NC that's all I got.
I will post intel as I get it.

WHOA!

Just 'cross the state line, hon........


Heard anything about GA?

 

[jward]

Surprised it took France this long, I expected it hours after they decided they need not close borders :: shakes head ::





BNO Newsroom
@BNODesk

NEW: France reports 2 new cases of coronavirus

 

[John Deere Girl]

Are there any theories on why this is hitting Iran so much harder than Germany, where it was contained pretty quickly? Government, hygiene, smoking, health, air pollution, genetics? Italy is hit, too, but not as bad, yet, as Iran. You know it's here, too, but nothing on the radar. Look at all the Chinese students who are here in our schools and the tourists. It's here. It's very curious or we are very blessed.

I would guess hygiene would be a big factor, but I'm guessing whatever the reason, it's the same one for South Korea.

 

[ainitfunny]

i would recommend not using oral or vaporized CS. fine to use topically.

ma
Why? Please justify your response with facts.
Knowing what many, if not most people here know about CS, asking us to put LIFE OR DEATH FAITH in "some guy on a forum who said don't use it orally or vaporized" is just not going to cut it HERE. Back up your opinion with legitimate
documentation from scientific sources.
OTHERWISE your opinion is worthless and could influence someone to the detriment of their chance of surviving this CORONA VIRUS!

 

[Mary Contrary]

I rarely post much, but wanted to say one thing. I live in Western NY out in the country half way between Buffalo and Rochester. I went to Harbor Frieght Monday night and they had a LOT of masks there. The ones with the valve in the middle were 1.99 for the one, and they even had lots of the cheap dust masks for the same price at 5 in the bag. I saw a video here somewhere that showed you can cut up a sheet of furnace filter, take out the wires, and cut a big circle and put inside the cheap masks and staple or tape all around. The guy said it works as good as those expensive masks. Also, i saw the video too where it talked about salt on a cloth mask will kill the virus. I have a whole bunch of green surgical masks i got for y2k. I was thinking of soaking them in hot water with lots of salt dissolved and then drying, and putting over a good surgical mask or even the N95. Anyone can make masks out of cloth and do this. I can't sew for beans. Good thing i got the masks from many yrs ago. I am ready - just gonna get lots more rice as i read that most of it comes from China.

Oops i was supposed to make spaces. I forgot. Heard on the radio today something that made me mad. Talk show host was talking about the covid19 virus and he was poo pooing it making it sound like it was nothing, and we should worry more about the regular flu. So he was telling people not to worry. A couple callers called in, and said he was wrong, but he did not agree with them. Most of the callers said they were not worried. Say Baaaaa now people. (not here tho)

Those thin painters suits will be good for full cover. I just read about it. And footies for the shoes. I am mainly worried about stocking up on dry cat food. I have a tiny house and no room. Outside in the sheds mice would get it. Worried about duk food too., but i see it comes from the U.S. I asked at the store., but will the truckers drive? Who knows?

Sorry so long.

 

[marsh]

Zerohedge

ZeroHedge - On a long enough timeline, the survival rate for everyone drops to zero

www.zerohedge.com

This Is Not A Drill: Why Covid-19 Could Be The Deadly Pandemic That Changes Everything

Tue, 02/25/2020 - 16:25

Authored by Cat Ellis via The Organic Prepper blog, author of the The Wuhan Coronavirus Survival Manual

It has been almost three months since the Wuhan coronavirus, now known officially as COVID-19, emerged in Wuhan, China. This novel coronavirus is the latest candidate to be the next major pandemic. We’ve learned a lot about COVID-19 in that time, and unfortunately, there is still so much we don’t know.
One thing that has becoming impossible to ignore, however, is that this not a drill.



Like all outbreaks, it’s impossible to know for sure if any particular one will become the next deadly, global pandemic until it either happens or doesn’t happen.

Unfortunately, COVID-19 is shaping into what appears to be the one that folks will be reading about in a hundred years in the same way we look back in history at the Spanish flu.

What We Thought We Knew
When the first cluster of 41 patients was identified in early December 2019 in Wuhan, China, early data suggested that the virus was only of real concern to the elderly, infirm, and those with comorbidities, such as diabetes and heart disease.

These would be standard expectations of a viral respiratory illness, similar to the flu. However, further inspection of that cluster only showed about half with serious illness fit that profile, meaning the other half who sought hospital care were younger, presumably healthier adults.

This novel coronavirus also had an early reported case fatality rate of about 2%, as reported by the World Health Organization (WHO). A mortality rate of 2% is concerning, but not all that alarming. It’s a little higher than the typical influenza case fatality rate. But, it wasn’t close to the case fatality rate of Middle East Respiratory Syndrome (MERS), another coronavirus that can be fatal to humans and has a case fatality rate of 34.4%.

As January progressed, we began seeing a handful of cases trickling into the United States and other countries. The first US case of the novel coronavirus was a young man who had returned from a trip to Wuhan. On January 21, 2020, the New York Times reported that he was a man in his thirties experiencing mild pneumonia.

More cases popped up from travelers, for business or education, in the US. But, on January 30, 2020, just a little over a week from the first patient to test positive for the Wuhan coronavirus, the Centers for Disease Control (CDC) reported that the United States had it’s first person-to-person transmission of the novel coronavirus.

Cause for Concern Grows

What was not known from the beginning was the rate of transmission and what percentage of people who become infected will become seriously or critically ill.
Worldometers breaks down the number of total active cases into mild and serious/critical categories. As of February 24, 2020, about 82% have a mild illness, and about 18% have a serious/critical illness requiring hospitalization. This is up from a rate of approximately 13% serious/critical cases just a few weeks ago.
Could this mean that the virus is mutating to become more dangerous? Possibly. But it could also just mean that as more data is collected, this additional data gives us a clearer picture of the real case fatality rate. Remember that the data we’ve received from China all along has been questionable. As the virus spreads to countries with more transparency, what we thought we knew is bound to change.

The same source cites the rate of transmission at between 2 to 3, meaning if there were a room with 10 people, and a person infected with this virus entered the room, you could reasonably expect 2 to 3 people to also become infected. For perspective, that is also 2 to 3 times as contagious as the flu.

The Worldometers coronavirus tracker, which is in line with several other coronavirus trackers from Johns Hopkins, BNO News, and Visa List, also lists the results of closed cases, i.e. cases with an actual outcome. Of the known outcomes, 91% recovered and 9% were fatal. What this means is that out of all the confirmed COVID-19 cases, about 18% will lead to serious or critical illness requiring hospital-level care and that 9% of that subset will die.

What about that 2% mortality rate? Part of the problem with calculating a case fatality rate is that you can’t actually know the true mortality rate (case fatality rate) until the outbreak is completely over. Until then, there are still cases without an outcome. In COVID-10, there are thousands more cases without outcomes yet.

The case fatality rate of 9% comes from taking the total cases of fatalities (2,701) and dividing it by the total number of cases with outcomes (30,334), then multiplying by 100 to get a case fatality rate of almost 9%.

What does all this mean?

If this virus comes to your neighborhood, you most likely would have a mild respiratory illness. However, if you are one of the unfortunate people who become seriously or critically ill, there’s a 9% chance of becoming the next victim of COVID-19.

COVID-19 has continued to spread. According to Worldometers on February 24, 2020, the United States currently has 53 cases of COVID-19, with 6 recoveries. Most of the cases in the United States are people who became infected elsewhere, traveled here asymptomatic, and developed symptoms here. Though, keep in mind there have been some person-to-person cases here as well.

There are now more than 600 people in Washington state being supervised for COVID-19. The number had once been up to almost 800 but, has been reduced when no symptoms were observed after 14 days. And it isn’t just in Washington state – thousands of people across the country are in self-quarantine right now because they may have been exposed.

What Is The Real Danger from COVID-19?
Now that we are a few months out from the first known cases, we know COVID-19 is highly contagious, and it can cause about 18% of people infected to require hospital-level care.

We simply will not have the beds or the medical staff to care for everyone, even if every hospital bed in the country were to be dedicated to Wuhan coronavirus patients. Even if we forgot about all the other sick people, those having babies, and those who were injured, there still would not be enough beds just for those with coronavirus.

In The Wuhan Coronavirus Survival Manual, I touched on the hospital overload.

The latest data I could find for how many hospital beds are available in the United States is for 2018 from the American Hospital Association. They put the total number of hospital beds in 2018 at 924,107. This is similar to the data from Stastisca.com, and it confirms that there was still a downward trend in the number of available hospital beds in 2018.

Assuming the downward trend has continued since 2018, we have less than 924 thousand available beds for every sick person from all causes in the United States. We are facing the potential worst-case scenario of 2,697,300 hospitalizations for Wuhan coronavirus alone.

This would raise the death toll from all causes as hospitals reach surge capacity. Surge capacity occurs when there is a sudden influx of patients that a hospital becomes overwhelmed and cannot treat any additional sick people.

In this situation, there are no more beds, and there is not enough hospital staff to treat any more patients.

Often, during a pandemic, it is not the pandemic illness itself that will kill a person. During the 2014 Ebola pandemic, it was common for people to die of some other health problem, and not Ebola, simply because doctors and nurses were too afraid to come to work. In other places, health care workers also became sick and unable to care for patients, as they were now patients themselves.

Imagine going into labor in the middle of a pandemic crisis. While homebirth attended by a skilled midwife has consistently proven to be safe and have better outcomes than hospital births, things can and still do go wrong. What if that were to happen during a pandemic with no beds available? What if you or a loved one experienced a heart attack or stroke? What if you were in a car accident or injured in a mob trying to get the last supplies off a grocery store shelf and needed emergency room care? (source)

If this virus continues to spread, it would be reasonable to expect massive disruptions to modern life, manufacturing, shipping, and shortages of all kinds. The number of fatalities from other illnesses, accidents, and lack of services would be in addition to the fatalities from the coronavirus itself. If you are preparing for this, remember that you aren’t just preparing for a cushy 2-week staycation. You’re preparing for something that affects many other facets of your life.

The entire system will be at risk in the event of a massive outbreak and shortages of all sorts could soon follow.

Is COVID-19 the Next Pandemic?
From the moment the Wuhan coronavirus appeared in mainstream US media, the message has largely been a call for calm, downplaying any risk to our nation. However, government actions and those of worldwide organizations tell a different story.

• The United States declared a state of emergency, limiting flights coming from Wuhan.
• The World Health Organization declared a public health emergency of international concern, or PHEIC, on January 20, 2020.The Director of the World Health Organization, Tedros Ghebreyesus, stated in a press conference and in a tweet the day following the press conference (February 9, 2020), something truly ominous.
  

  The detection of a small number of cases may indicate more widespread transmission in other countries; in short we may only be seeing the tip of the iceberg.

• The CDC held a press briefing with Dr. Nancy Messonier, where she stated the Centers for Disease Control is preparing as if COVID-19 will be the next great pandemic:
  

  As I look around me at the staff working on this outbreak here at CDC, I see a lot of people who worked on the 2009 h1n1 pandemic. Rather than coming from abroad, that virus was on our doorstep when we recognized it. We didn’t have much chance to prepare. Today we are again seeing the emergence of the new virus that poses a very serious public health threat. This time we do have time to prepare, and we are preparing as if this were the next pandemic.

• The Organic Prepper reported on how hospitals in the US, as well as the United States military, are preparing for COVID-19 to spread across the country.

Experts from the Minnesota Department of Health and Minnesota University both warn families to prepare for a COVID-19 outbreak.

But Minnesota Department of Health infectious disease director Kris Ehresmann said it’s very likely there will be outbreaks of the virus here. And Michael Osterholm, an expert in infectious disease at the University of Minnesota, said people should assume the virus will hit hard.

The article continues, covering the likelihood of hospitals reaching capacity, the need for plans to keep power and utilities running during an outbreak, for families to have communication plans, discuss who would take care of sick family members (assuming they wouldn’t require hospital-level care), and to have extra food on hand.

Just to make sure that you know you have some basic resources, in terms of foodstuffs and things like that,” she said. “So that if you would have family members get sick and you were unable to go out for a few days, do you have enough basic supplies to kind of keep going?

The official warning signs are everywhere if you are paying attention.

Mandatory Quarantines
What comes with pandemics? Mandatory quarantines. We saw them in the Ebola outbreak of 2014, and we’re seeing them now in China. According to the New York Times:

Residential lockdowns of varying strictness — from checkpoints at building entrances to hard limits on going outdoors — now cover at least 760 million people in China, or more than half the country’s population, according to a New York Times analysis of government announcements in provinces and major cities. Many of these people live far from the city of Wuhan, where the virus was first reported and which the government sealed off last month.

This article discusses many of the dystopian measures used in China to quarantine people.

Think that could never happen here? The CDC is already considering these extreme measures.

Today officials from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) warned that although the agency is taking historic measures to slow the introduction of COVID-19 into the United States, the country should prepare for the possibility of community spread, as seen in China and neighboring Asian countries.

“The day may come when we may need to implement such measures as seen in Asia,” Nancy Messonnier, MD, director of the CDC’s National Center for Immunization and Respiratory Diseases, said in a press conference, referencing the closing of businesses, schools, and churches in multiple countries where transmission is now occurring within the community.

Don’t kid yourself. If things start spreading here as it has in other countries, the government will crack down so fast it will make your head spin. If things lead to the place that all the signs are pointing to, you’d be wise to get prepared for the possibility of being quarantined due to a pandemic. As well, remember that there are deep financial ramifications to people being unable to go about their daily business.

Prepping for a Covid-19 Pandemic
I spent the weekend adding to the comfort and capabilities of my secondary location, and this week I’m putting up extra food. You may wish to do the same. Here’s a list of resources for those who want to prepare for the possibility of a pandemic, quarantines, and lockdowns.

• The Wuhan Coronavirus Survival Manual (available in paperback or Kindle)
• What I Bought to Prep for a Wuhan Coronavirus Lockdown
• The Cost of Covid-19 Quarantine: Would You Be Financially Prepared?
• Would We Still Have Power and Water If We Had a Massive Coronavirus Quarantine in the US?

Don’t expect a lengthy warning with time to run to the store if a mandatory quarantine occurs. You will be spending that quarantine with the things you already have on hand, so now is the time to prepare for that possibility.

This Is Not A Drill
While containment still remains the mainstay of WHO and CDC policy, if we pay attention to what our government, military, and world health agencies are telling us, they are preparing for a full-on coronavirus pandemic.

We have authorities in infectious disease telling us to have food and plans in place in the event you suddenly find yourself under travel restrictions or in a full-blown, lock-down quarantine. I’m not sure what else there is to say except this is not a drill.

I hope that containment will still save the day. Perhaps we will do better in the United States than some others will, and not see COVID-19 spread any further, unlike Italy with large clusters forming seemingly overnight, leading to school and work closings in multiple cities.

While I always hope for the best, I also always plan for the worst. You won’t get much time to prepare if things begin spreading rapidly where you are. You’d be wise to do so ahead of time.
* * *

 

[rlm1966]

ma
Why? Please justify your response with facts.
Knowing what many, if not most people here know about CS, asking us to put LIFE OR DEATH FAITH in "some guy on a forum who said don't use it orally or vaporized" is just not going to cut it HERE. Back up your opinion with legitimate
documentation from scientific sources.
OTHERWISE your opinion is worthless and could influence someone to the detriment of their chance of surviving this CORONA VIRUS!

So their opinion is worthless because you disagree with it, but yours is good. Got it. May I suggest that their opinion is just as valid, or maybe even more so than yours. Perhaps you could allow them to voice their opinion, you voice yours and let the individual decide. I will say in this case that the advise they gave is probably much more valid than the advise you gave from a legally supported point of view (it would be far easier to follow your advice and then sue you if it failed than it would be to sue them).

 

[Countrymouse]

CM......I ordered 3 10# cans of Morning Moo powdered milk to have for my grandsons.

Thank you---they were out of stock on this kind but I found another. THANKS!

 

[Intestinal Fortitude]

6 min ago
US could see a similar death rate to China if the virus spreads, says top infectious diseases doctor

From CNN's Ben Tinker

Anthony Fauci in the White House Briefing Room on January 31 in Washington, DC. Sarah Silbiger/Getty Images

Dr. Anthony Fauci, director of the US National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, told CNN the US needed more resources to fight the coronavirus outbreak, which has infected 53 people in the US.

“We’ve had a pandemic preparedness plan that we really developed in preparation for pandemic influenza, that we can extrapolate to this. We certainly need more resources, and that’s what you heard today with the supplemental request. Because we can only go a certain way with the resources we have,” Fauci said.

Death rate: Fauci added that the fatality rate of the outbreak could reach the same levels in the US as in China because there is no vaccine or cure available.

"I mean, the people who are dying who require intensive care, for example in an intensive care unit -- maybe even intubation for respiratory assistance in breathing -- the Chinese have that. They have a pretty good system, and yet you’re still seeing the 2% mortality. So it isn’t a question of, ‘they don’t have as good care as we have.’ So if, in fact, we do get a pandemic that does impact us in this country, I think you’re going to see comparable types of morbidity and mortality," he said.

February 26, 2020 coronavirus news

Europe's biggest coronavirus outbreak is in Italy, where more than 320 have been infected, while Iran has reported more than 90 cases and 15 deaths. Follow here for live updates.

www.cnn.com

===

.

Dear Dr. Fauci

What is the actual factual numbers for that death rate??? ...asking for a friend.....

 

[Ragnarok]

But, Ma'am, we're NO WHERE NEAR the same country NO)W we were in 1918.

Damn shame, ain't it?

 

[Ragnarok]

That makes a huge amount of sense! No one goes anywhere, everything is closed, the virus (where ever it would be) in theory should burn itself out. Brilliant....best idea to date. Maybe we'll get lucky and they will do that.

Ain't NO WAY we are doing that...

Even if it was mandated, you have to account for the Kardashians and Logan Paul's of the world who think they are above anything else and will do what the want, no matter what any authorities think.

That may have worked prior to the "snowflake" generation but it won't work now...

 

[Countrymouse]

I'm going to be very careful here. I understand your concerns and I'll do my best to answer your questions as I can.

First, and this may seem to be insensitive----If what was said was done about burning patients alive is true it is an indictment of the inhumanity of the chinese political system and culture. We have little control of how we are born and many times less control of how we die. That was taken away from these people and imposed by a system that sees human life as meaningless. I would not allow that to happen to me or mine.

Now, your medical situation. Without examining you I cannot give you any definitive answers. I would recommend that you take you concerns to your physician. They know you and have successfully treated you in the past. They know your allergy history and, more importantly, can prescribe you rounds of antibiotics that are appropriate for prophylaxis as well as treatment of likely pathogens. Its not an unreasonable discussion to have with them.

I would also express your concerns about prior breathing problems in the face of an oncoming pandemic. I don't think that it would be unreasonable to ask for refills on the albuterol nebulizer, new masks and kits, or asking about the ability to use supplemental oxygen if you did become sick. Your doc could prescribe those things for you, especially if there are large numbers of people at the hospital it would be helpful for you to not go in just for treatment and risk exposure for conditions that you could manage at home with the correctly prescribed equipment and medications. Oxygen could be very important for you with your past history. I would consider seriously talking to them.

Finally, there are some steps I would recommend. DO have a living will, powers of attorney, and all of the documents drawn up to assure that your sons are cared for. Have a system where people you know can come to check on you and them, and that you can trust to check on you if you are unable to request help so that your sons are not left unattended. Put your thoughs in energy into preparing for the worst, hoping for the best, and never giving up.

And talk to your doc about the meds, nebulizers, and oxygen.

Thank you SO much, Roundaben.

Right now I'm fighting off a VERY WEIRD infection that has settled in my left ear, of all places. I haven't had an ear infection since I was a little girl, but this one started with one of my chronic 3-day sinus headache/cold attacks--and because I was not running any fever I decided THIS time to gut it out and NOT take my usual 5-day Azithromycin pack (I keep a supply on hand from All Day Chemist--another of the few antibiotics I'm not allergic to). So...I did NOT take anything--the 3-day pain went away--but then 2 days later BOTH ears were suddenly full of fluid. Went on Azith at once---right ear cleared up but not left. Went to Dr---(saw PA)---put me on Augmentin instead. Completely cleared right ear of fluid but left ear still "not happy" as she put it. Pain, slight swelling around outside of and below ear, HARD ot chew but pain in jaw/ear not in teeth. Went back again due to no improvement--she put me on Doxycycline. WHOA! Went STRAIGHT down-hill--started developing mucus drainage down throat, losing voice, low-grade fever, starting to feel scratchy throat (up to now all discomfort had been confined to sinuses and ears--totally just in my head and NO fever at all) and I was scared it might go down into my lungs and become pneumonia. Went BACK to PC--she put me back on augmentin and said I need to go see an ENT and my dentist.

Saw dentist today--all teeth ok--it's not an abscess. Can't get in to see ENT till Thursday morning.

Naturally, until I get all THIS sorted out, my doctor is not going to want to talk to me (I wouldn't think) about "potential" problems--not until we've solved the curretn ACTUAL problem.

BUT--I will keep this in mind, to ask her once I get over this stupid whatever-it-is. I don't suppose corona virus settles in the ear, does it?

 

[northern watch]

Vincent Lee‏Verified account @Rover829 3m3 minutes ago

Reuters: JAPAN PM ABE: WILL CONTINUE TO CLOSELY COMMUNICATE WITH IOC, TOKYO AND PROCEED PREPARATIONS FOR OLYMPICS

 

[Ragnarok]

does anyone have any idea what the warm weather of summer will do to the virus? I would expect that it will have a shorter life on items, m

That is what Trump is basing his whole "It's Under Control" schtick on...

But, it is running free in Singapore, which tells a different story.

 

[northern watch]

Baxtiyar Goran‏Verified account @BaxtiyarGoran 1h1 hour ago

Baxtiyar Goran Retweeted العربية عاجل

Additional death due to #coronavirus recorded in #Iran's Bandar Abbas.

 

[Shadow]

-
The new coronavirus: What is it and how does it behave?


* They also found that the case-fatality rate is between 2% and 4% in Wuhan and 0.7% outside Wuhan.

The new coronavirus: What is it and how does it behave?

The new coronavirus that emerged in Wuhan, China, in December has infected tens of thousands of people in China and beyond and triggered alarm around the world. (https://www.reuters.com/live-events/coronavirus-6-id2921484) Here is what we know about the disease it causes and how it spreads:

www.reuters.com

This make me wonder if something else is also loose in China at the same time that is skewing these numbers!

Shadow

 

[Ragnarok]

GoshDarnIt!!!

I wish I still had some connections to get a quarter of weed!

This is getting real!

 

[Ragnarok]

ma
Why? Please justify your response with facts.
Knowing what many, if not most people here know about CS, asking us to put LIFE OR DEATH FAITH in "some guy on a forum who said don't use it orally or vaporized" is just not going to cut it HERE. Back up your opinion with legitimate
documentation from scientific sources.
OTHERWISE your opinion is worthless and could influence someone to the detriment of their chance of surviving this CORONA VIRUS!

....

..........

..................

Breathe.........

After all the expertise brought by rondaben this is incredibly disrespectful.

 

[Shadow]

"Therefore, a curse devours the earth, and those who live in it are held guilty. Therefore, the inhabitants of the earth are burned, and few men are left."

Never thought of it before but could "burned" be a reference to a fever?

I thought of it applying to the incinerators, which the Chinese have ordered another million of. No disrespect to the WWII genocide victims.

Shadow

 

[Skyraider]

GoshDarnIt!!!

I wish I still had some connections to get a quarter of weed!

This is getting real!

Me too, actually I do and will take care of it tomorrow. Can’t sleep, it’s 3am now. Don’t drink, been a toker for years, laid off it since Dec for no particular reason, now I know why I wish I didn’t.

 

[Skyraider]

My wife is sound asleep. Been that way since 10pm. I can only stand laying there listening to her deep breathing for so long. Now I am up and about through the night. Been this way for a couple weeks. Driving me nuts. Got a lot done today, I’m really quite set for the long haul, but personally and spiritually disappointed. Isn’t it how life is, get your shit together, work your ass off, do the right things, living my dreams up on this mtn, just closed my business after 30 yrs, I’m 70 and healthy, ready to kick back with the grandkids and here we are. I appreciate all you folks through years. Peace.

 

[DazedandConfused]

WHOA!

Just 'cross the state line, hon........


Heard anything about GA?

I'm figure it's going to be nation wide before this is over.
My info coming from someone within the ***** **** system in NC.

 

[Mary Contrary]

A little thread drift but triple antibiotic ointment may get hard to find as I imagine the antibiotic components come from Asia. I’m guessing but perhaps cats are more popular now in cities because years ago, a scratch could cause major problems or at least expense from an apothecary. Country folk had knowledge and free access to natural medicines and probably a better inherited immune system for such things. I do not expect a long term shortage (years) but it may become unobtanium for at least several months. Summer and nicks and cuts are are arriving soon.

I love that antibiotic ointment. I got ten tubes in the fridge as it keeps better. I'm gonna buy more now. I was at DT a day ago and they had lots, but no masks at all and they used to carry them. Oh, Walmart here in Batavia shelves were starting to get empty. I never saw it like that before. I went Saturday and the same and the same on Monday when i went. Empty shelves of pasta, gaterade drinks, laundry soap, ramon, toilet paper, sugar, ketchup, paper towels, taco shells.....They had some of that stuff, but lots of empty spaces and they should have re stocked on friday or at least monday, but monday was the same as saturday. But DT had lots of stuff, except the toothpaste and some otc meds were low, but still enough for people to buy.

 

[Profit of Doom]

GoshDarnIt!!!

I wish I still had some connections to get a quarter of weed!

This is getting real!

Come to California. 5 stores within 20 minutes.

 

[Shadow]

A question for our medical types - with washing my hands so frequently, they have become very dry. If I use lotion on them, won't that defeat the purpose of washing them and attract picking up the virus? What do professionals use to keep skin from drying out?

I am not medical but I have had dry skin problems for decades. Vitamin E 400 units (?) 2 times a day and vitamin B12 4000 units (?) per day helped stop it. Amlactin lotion is 12% lac-hydrin, and I used to need a prescription for it. Now you can get it at Costco for ~18.00.

I recently increased vitamin E to 3 times 400 per day.

Shadow

 

[Heliobas Disciple]

Here is a way you can "keep a copy" for your own records...

What I have been doing is running Firefox with Noscript, and then changing the youtube.com to youtubepp.com and it pulls if from one of the youtube downloader sites. That site does have annoying pop-ups, but if you are running firefox with Noscript it blocks the pop-ups just fine but still allows you to download the .mp4 file you want.

Another one of the sites I use (also with Firefox and NoScript) is www . savethevideo . com . It has a similar pop-up issue, but NoScript blocks that with no problem. Savethevideo works with a LOT of video sites, not just youtube. I use it to pull twitter videos (you don't even have to have a twitter account).

Loup

When Firefox updated without me ( ) my add on stopped working. I found a free program that's been working great. It's a few extra steps, it lives in my toolbar (win7) and is really easy to use.

How to Download a YouTube Video

Here is how you can download YouTube videos to your laptop or computer for free. Save any YouTube video on Windows, macOS and Linux with 4K Video Downloader+.

www.4kdownload.com

 

[marsh]

Thank you!

 

[jward]

The coronavirus seems unstoppable. What should the world do now?

By Jon Cohen, Kai KupferschmidtFeb. 25, 2020 , 5:05 PM

The global march of COVID-19 is beginning to look unstoppable. In just the past week, a countrywide outbreak surfaced in Iran, spawning additional cases in Iraq, Oman, and Bahrain. Italy put 10 towns in the north on lockdown after the virus rapidly spread there. An Italian physician carried the virus to the Spanish island of Tenerife, a popular holiday spot for northern Europeans, and Austria and Croatia reported their first cases. Meanwhile, South Korea’s outbreak kept growing explosively and Japan reported additional cases in the wake of the botched quarantine of a cruise ship.

The virus may be spreading stealthily in many more places. A modeling group at Imperial College London has estimated that about two-thirds of the cases exported from China have yet to be detected.

The World Health Organization (WHO) still avoided using the word “pandemic” to describe the burgeoning crisis today, instead talking about “epidemics in different parts of the world.” But many scientists say that regardless of what it’s called, the window for containment is now almost certainly shut. “It looks to me like this virus really has escaped from China and is being transmitted quite widely,” says Christopher Dye, an epidemiologist at the University of Oxford. “I’m now feeling much more pessimistic that it can be controlled.” In the United States, “disruption to everyday life might be severe,” Nancy Messonnier, who leads the coronavirus response for the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, warned on 25 February. “We are asking the American public to work with us to prepare for the expectation that this is going to be bad.”
Dye and others say it’s time to rethink the public health response. So far, efforts have focused on containment: slowing the spread of the virus within China, keeping it from being exported to other countries, and, when patients do cross borders, aggressively tracing anyone they were in contact with and quarantining those people for 2 weeks. But if the virus, named SARS-CoV-2, has gone global, travel restrictions may become less effective than measures to limit outbreaks and reduce their impact, wherever they are—for instance, by closing schools, preparing hospitals, or even imposing the kind of draconian quarantine imposed on huge cities in China.

“Border measures will not be as effective or even feasible, and the focus will be on community mitigation measures until a vaccine becomes available in sufficient quantities,” says Luciana Borio, a former biodefense preparedness expert at the U.S. National Security Council who is now vice president at In-Q-Tel, a not-for-profit venture capital firm. “The fight now is to mitigate, keep the health care system working, and don’t panic,” adds Alessandro Vespignani, an infectious disease modeler at Northeastern University. “This has a range of outcomes from the equivalent of a very bad flu season to something that is perhaps a little bit worse than that.”
Public health experts disagree, however, about how quickly the travel restrictions that have marked the first phase of the epidemic should be loosened. Early this week, the total number of cases stood at more than 80,000 with 2705 deaths—with 97% of the total still in China. Some countries have gone so far as to ban all flights to and from China; the United States quarantines anyone who has been in hard-hit Hubei province and refuses entry to foreign nationals if they have been anywhere in China during the past 2 weeks. Several countries have also added restrictions against South Korea and Iran.



The restrictions have worked to some degree, scientists say. “If we had not put a travel restriction on, we would have had many, many, many more travel-related cases than we have,” says Anthony Fauci, who heads the U.S. National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases.
But many epidemiologists have claimed that travel bans buy little extra time, and WHO doesn’t endorse them. The received wisdom is that bans can backfire, for example, by hampering the flow of necessary medical supplies and eroding public trust. And as the list of affected countries grows, the bans will become harder to enforce and will make less sense: There is little point in spending huge amounts of resources to keep out the occasional infected person if you already have thousands in your own country. The restrictions also come at a steep price. China’s economy has already taken an enormous hit from COVID-19, as has the airline industry. China also exports many products, from pharmaceuticals to cellphones, and manufacturing disruptions are causing massive supply chain problems.
“It would be very hard politically and probably not even prudent to relax travel restrictions tomorrow,” says Harvard University epidemiologist Marc Lipsitch. “But in a week, if the news continues at the pace that it’s been the last few days, I think it will become clear that travel restrictions are not the major countermeasure anymore.”

Smaller scale containment efforts will remain helpful, says WHO’s Bruce Aylward, who led an international mission to China over the past 2 weeks. In a report from the mission that Aylward discussed but did not publicly release, the group concludes that the Chinese epidemic peaked between 23 January and 2 February and that the country’s aggressive containment efforts in Hubei, where at least 50 million people have been on lockdown, gave other provinces time to prepare for the virus and ultimately prevent “probably hundreds of thousands” of cases. “It’s important that other countries think about this and think about whether they apply something—not necessarily full lockdowns everywhere, but that same rigorous approach.”

Yet China’s domestic restrictions have come at a huge cost to individuals, says Lawrence Gostin, who specializes in global health policy at Georgetown University Law Center. He calls the policies “astounding, unprecedented, and medieval,” and says he is particularly concerned about the physical and mental well-being of people in Hubei who are housebound, under intensive surveillance, and facing shortages of health services. “This would be unthinkable in probably any country in the world but China,” he says. (Italy’s lockdowns are for relatively small towns, not major cities.)
China is slowly beginning to lift the restrictions in regions at lower risk, which could expose huge numbers of people to the infection, Dye says. “If normal life is restored in China, then we could expect another resurgence,” he adds.
Still, delaying illness can have a big payoff, Lipsitch says. It will mean a lower burden on hospitals and a chance to better train vulnerable health care workers on how to protect themselves, more time for citizens to prepare, and more time to test potentially life-saving drugs and, in the longer term, vaccines. “If I had a choice of getting [COVID-19] today or getting it 6 months from now, I would definitely prefer to get it 6 months from now,” Lipsitch says. Flattening the peak of an epidemic also means fewer people are infected overall, he says.

Other countries could adopt only certain elements from China’s strategy. An updated analysis co-authored by Dye and posted on the preprint server medRxiv concludes that suspending public transport, closing entertainment venues, and banning public gatherings were the most effective mitigation interventions in China. “We don’t have direct proof, of course, because we don’t have a properly controlled experiment,” Dye says. “But those measures were probably working to push down the number of cases.” One question is whether closing schools will help. “We just don’t know what role kids play” in the epidemic, Lipsitch says. “That’s something that anybody who has 100 or more cases could start to study.”
Some countries may decide it’s better not to impede the free flow of people too much, keep schools and businesses open, and forgo the quarantining of cities. “That’s quite a big decision to make with regards to public health,” Dye says, “because essentially, it’s saying, ‘We’re going to let this virus go.’”
To prepare for what’s coming, hospitals can stockpile respiratory equipment and add beds. More intensive use of the vaccines against influenza and pneumococcal infections could help reduce the burden of those respiratory diseases on the health care system and make it easier to identify COVID-19 cases, which produce similar symptoms. Governments can issue messages about the importance of handwashing and staying home if you’re ill.
Whatever the rest of the world does, it’s essential that it take action soon, Aylward says, and he hopes other countries will learn from China. “The single biggest lesson is: Speed is everything,” he says. “And you know what worries me most? Has the rest of the world learned the lesson of speed?”

Posted in:

• Asia/Pacific
• Health
• Coronavirus

doi:10.1126/science.abb4604
posted for fair use

Science | AAAS

www.sciencemag.org

 

[jward]

jan kluytmans
@jankluytmans


Similar pictures >100 years apart. Spanish Flu and #Covid_19 #coronavirus

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1232341997605789698

View: https://twitter.com/jankluytmans/status/1232341997605789698?s=20

 

[jward]

When coronavirus is not alone

Team of complexity scientists present 'meme' model for multiple diseases

University of Vermont

Interacting contagious diseases like influenza and pneumonia follow the same complex spreading patterns as social trends. This new finding, published in Nature Physics, could lead to better tracking and intervention when multiple diseases spread through a population at the same time.

"The interplay of diseases is the norm rather than the exception," says Laurent Hébert-Dufresne, a complexity scientist at the University of Vermont who co-led the new research. "And yet when we model them, it's almost always one disease in isolation."

When disease modelers map an epidemic like coronavirus, Ebola, or the flu, they traditionally treat them as isolated pathogens. Under these so-called "simple" dynamics, it's generally accepted that the forecasted size of the epidemic will be proportional to the rate of transmission.

But according to Hébert-Dufresne, professor of computer science at University of Vermont, and his co-authors, Samuel Scarpino at Northeastern University, and Jean-Gabriel Young at the University of Michigan, the presence of even one more contagion in the population can dramatically shift the dynamics from simple to complex. Once this shift occurs, microscopic changes in the transmission rate trigger macroscopic jumps in the expected epidemic size--a spreading pattern that social scientists have observed in the adoption of innovative technologies, slang, and other contagious social behaviors.

STAR WARS AND SNEEZING
The researchers first began to compare biological contagions and social contagions in 2015 at the Santa Fe Institute, a transdisciplinary research center where Hébert-Dufresne was modeling how social trends propagate through reinforcement. The classic example of social reinforcement, according to Hébert-Dufresne, is "the phenomenon through which ten friends telling you to go see the new Star Wars movie is different from one friend telling you the same thing ten times."

Like multiple friends reinforcing a social behavior, the presence of multiple diseases makes an infection more contagious that it would be on its own. Biological diseases can reinforce each other through symptoms, as in the case of a sneezing virus that helps to spread a second infection like pneumonia. Or, one disease can weaken the host's immune system, making the population more susceptible to a second, third, or additional contagion.

When diseases reinforce each other, they rapidly accelerate through the population, then fizzle out as they run out of new hosts. According to the researchers' model, the same super-exponential pattern characterizes the spread of social trends, like viral videos, which are widely shared and then cease to be relevant after a critical mass of people have viewed them.

DENGUE AND ANTIVAXXERS
A second important finding is that the same complex patterns that arise for interacting diseases also arise when a biological contagion interacts with a social contagion, as in the example of a virus spreading in conjunction with an anti-vaccination campaign. The paper details a 2005 Dengue outbreak in Puerto Rico, and Hébert-Dufresne cites an additional example of a 2017 Dengue outbreak in Puerto Rico where failure to accurately account for the interplay of Dengue strains reduced the effectiveness of a Dengue vaccine. This in turn sparked an anti-vaccination movement--a social epidemic--that ultimately led to the resurgence of measles--a second biological epidemic. It's a classic example of real-world complexity, where unintended consequences emerge from many interacting phenomena.

Although it is fascinating to observe a universal spreading pattern across complex social and biological systems, Hébert-Dufresne notes that it also presents a unique challenge. "Looking at the data alone, we could observe this complex pattern and not know whether a deadly epidemic was being reinforced by a virus, or by a social phenomenon, or some combination."

"We hope this will open the door for more exciting models that capture the dynamics of multiple contagions," he says. "Our work shows that it is time for the disease modeling community to move beyond looking at contagions individually."

And the new study may shed light on the spread of coronavirus. "When making predictions, such as for the current coronavirus outbreak occurring in a flu season, it becomes important to know which cases have multiple infections and which patients are in the hospital with flu--but scared because of coronavirus," Hébert-Dufresne says. "The interactions can be biological or social in nature, but they all matter."

Novel Coronavirus - COVID19

@PneumoniaWuhan
4m
When coronavirus is not alone | EurekAlert! Science News http://dlvr.it/RQmRFM #coronavirus #covid19

When coronavirus is not alone

Interacting contagious diseases like influenza and pneumonia--and perhaps coronavirus too -- follow the same complex spreading patterns as social trends, like the adoption of new slang or technologies. This new finding, published in Nature Physics, could lead to better tracking and intervention...

eurekalert.org

 

[EMICT]

....

..........

..................

Breathe.........

After all the expertise brought by rondaben this is incredibly disrespectful.

Some folks don't do well under stress. We will likely see some real life examples within the coming weeks.

 

[Heliobas Disciple]

This has to end now. This should be the first thing Pres Trump and his team take care of. If people are charged these insane amounts to get a COVID test, no one will go in to get tested.

Man receives $3,500 medical bill for coronavirus test after returning to US from China

Osmel Martinez Azcue only has the flu, but he now owes his insurance $1,400

www.independent.co.uk

Coronavirus: Man receives $3,500 medical bill for test after returning to US from China
Osmel Martinez Azcue only has the flu, but he now owes his insurance $1,400
Danielle Zoellner
New York 11 hours ago

A Miami man has received a nearly $3,500 medical bill after getting coronavirus tests following his trip to China.

Osmel Martinez Azcue returned from a work trip last month to China and discovered he was feeling flu-like symptoms. Worried about the coronavirus, the man decided to go to a Florida hospital to get tested, according to the Miami Herald.

Testing revealed Mr Azcue had the flu, not the coronavirus. But his limited health insurance left him with a bill of $3,270 two weeks after his test. He will be responsible for $1,400 of that bill.

"How can they expect normal citizens to contribute to eliminating the potential risk of person-to-person spread if hospitals are waiting to charge us $3,270 for a simple blood test and a nasal swab?" Mr Azcue told the newspaper.

Mr Azcue previously had insurance through the Affordable Care Act. He picked that insurance as he makes $55,000 through his job at a medical-device company, and it does not provide a health insurance plan.

Once he first purchased the plan, he was paying $278 per month. These premiums then shot up to $400 once his full salary kicked in, forcing the man to cancel the coverage and pay $180 per month for a limited plan through National General Insurance.

This decision comes as the Trump administration rolled back the Affordable Care Act regulations in 2018 and allowed "junk plans" on the market.

These junk plans offer short-term, low-benefit coverage for people, but they also are not required to meet the law's standards for health coverage, meaning the plans could avoid covering pre-existing conditions or offering protections from large out-of-pocket expenses.

One problem people run into when shopping for insurance plans is the way these junk plans are advertised. Someone might think they have coverage for certain expenses only to discover later they don't.

Mr Azcue discovered that not only does he owe $1,400 out of pocket, but he also needs to provide his insurer with three years of medical records to prove that the flu he got didn't relate to a pre-existing condition. If for some reason the flu related to a pre-existing condition, then the insurer would no longer pay a portion of the man's bill.

Jackson Memorial Hospital, where Mr Azcue received his tests, told the Miami Herald more bills are on its way to the man. It is not clear what else he will have to pay for after getting tested for the coronavirus.

 

[blueinterceptor]

After the Tucker Carlson show tonite, I’m of the opinion that the WHO should not be followed.

 

[jward]

Tracking coronavirus: Map, data and timeline

The tables below show confirmed cases of coronavirus (2019-nCoV, officially known as SARS-CoV-2 or COVID-19) in China and other countries. To see a distribution map and a timeline, scroll down. There are currently 81,133 confirmed cases worldwide, including 2,764 fatalities.



Last update: 26 February 2020 at 3:44 a.m. ET

MAINLAND CHINA	Cases	Deaths	Notes	Links
Hubei province (includes Wuhan)	65,187	2,615	8,326 serious	Source
Guangdong province	1,333	5	35 serious, 27 critical	Source
Henan province	1,267	19	24 serious, 21 critical	Source
Zhejiang province	1,203	1	31 serious, 18 critical	Source
Hunan province	1,011	4	43 serious	Source
Anhui province	988	6	3 critical	Source
Jiangxi province	934	1	26 serious	Source
Jiangsu province	631	0	6 serious, 4 critical	Source
Chongqing	567	6	29 serious, 12 critical	Source
Shandong province	749	4	8 serious, 12 critical	Source
Sichuan province	525	3	18 critical	Source
Heilongjiang province	479	12	70 serious	Source
Beijing	396	4	19 critical	Source
Shanghai	334	2	11 serious, 3 critical	Source
Tianjin	132	3		Source
Other regions	2,256	23		Source
Undisclosed	72	4		Source
TOTAL	78,064	2,715	8,552 serious 29,745 recovered 2,491 suspected

OTHER PLACES	Cases	Deaths	Notes	Links
Diamond Princess	691	4	36 serious, 10 recovered	Source
South Korea	1,261	12	13 serious, 5 critical, 24 recovered	Source
Italy	325	11	19 serious, 1 recovered	Source
Japan	172*	2	13 serious, 23 recovered	Source
Iran	95	15		Source
Singapore	91	0	7 critical, 58 recovered	Source
Hong Kong	85	2	4 critical, 2 serious, 18 recovered	Source
United States	57	0	6 recovered
Thailand	40	0	2 serious, 15 recovered	Source
Taiwan	32	1	5 recovered	Source
Malaysia	22	0	17 recovered	Source
Australia	22	0	15 recovered	Source
Germany	18	0	1 critical, 15 recovered	Source
Vietnam	16	0	16 recovered	Source
UAE	13	0	2 serious, 3 recovered	Source
United Kingdom	13	0	8 recovered	Source
France	14	1	11 recovered	Source
Canada	11	0	3 recovered	Source
Macau	10	0	6 recovered	Source
Bahrain	26	0		Source
Kuwait	12	0		Source
Iraq	5	0		Source
Philippines	3	1	2 recovered	Source
India	3	0	3 recovered	Source
Russia	2	0	2 recovered	Source
Spain	9	0	2 recovered	Source
Oman	4	0		Source
Nepal	1	0	1 recovered	Source
Cambodia	1	0	1 recovered	Source
Sri Lanka	1	0	1 recovered	Source
Finland	1	0	1 recovered	Source
Sweden	1	0		Source
Belgium	1	0	1 recovered	Source
Egypt	1	0	1 recovered	Source
Israel	2	0		Source
Lebanon	1	0		Source
Afghanistan	1	0		Source
Austria	2	0		Source
Croatia	2	0		Source
Switzerland	1	0		Source
Algeria	1	0		Source
TOTAL	3,069	49	104 serious/critical

Notes

• Japan: The total includes 4 asymptomatic cases, which are not included in the government’s official count. It also includes 14 people who were evacuated from China.
• Japan: The 691 people from the “Diamond Princess” cruise ship are listed separately and they’re not included in the Japanese government’s official count. 380 were asymptomatic. Fourteen of them are U.S. citizens whose test results weren’t known until they were taken off the ship.
• Diamond Princess: The total does not include 3 employees of Japan’s Health Ministry and 1 staff member of Japan’s Cabinet Secretariat, all of whom were infected while working on the ship. It does also not include people who tested positive upon their return home: 36 people in the U.S., 7 in Australia, 4 in the UK, 4 in Hong Kong, and 2 in Israel.
• North Korea: Unconfirmed reports about 1, 5, or 7 cases in North Korea have been denied by the government. If cases are confirmed by North Korean officials, they will be added to this list.
• Brazil: A 61-year-old man in São Paulo has tested positive for coronavirus in an initial test. The government is waiting for results from a second test. The case will be added if the second test confirms coronavirus. (Source)

 

[Heliobas Disciple]

IOC member warns coronavirus could cancel Tokyo Olympics

TOKYO — A senior member of the International Olympic Committee said Tuesday that if it proves too dangerous to hold the Olympics in Tokyo this summer because of the coronavirus outbreak, organizers…

wgntv.com

(fair use applies)

IOC member warns coronavirus could cancel Tokyo Olympics
Posted 2:04 PM, February 25, 2020, by Associated Press

TOKYO — A senior member of the International Olympic Committee said Tuesday that if it proves too dangerous to hold the Olympics in Tokyo this summer because of the coronavirus outbreak, organizers are more likely to cancel it altogether than to postpone or move it.

Dick Pound, a former Canadian swimming champion who has been on the IOC since 1978, making him its longest-serving member, estimated there is a three-month window — perhaps a two-month one — to decide the fate of the Tokyo Olympics, meaning a decision could be put off until late May.

“In and around that time, I’d say folks are going to have to ask: ‘Is this under sufficient control that we can be confident about going to Tokyo or not?’” he said in an exclusive interview with The Associated Press.

As the games draw near, he said, “a lot of things have to start happening. You’ve got to start ramping up your security, your food, the Olympic Village, the hotels. The media folks will be in there building their studios.”

If the IOC decides the games cannot go forward as scheduled in Tokyo, “you’re probably looking at a cancellation,” he said.

The viral outbreak that began in China two months ago has infected more than 80,000 people globally and killed over 2,700, the vast majority of them in China. But the virus has gained a foothold in South Korea, the Middle East and Europe, raising fears of a pandemic. Japan itself has reported four deaths.

Pound encouraged athletes to keep training. About 11,000 are expected for the Olympics, which open July 24, and 4,400 are bound for the Paralympics, which open Aug. 25.

“As far as we all know, you’re going to be in Tokyo,” Pound said. “All indications are at this stage that it will be business as usual. So keep focused on your sport and be sure that the IOC is not going to send you into a pandemic situation.”

The modern Olympics, which date to 1896, have been canceled only during wartime. The Olympics in 1940 were supposed to be in Tokyo but were called off because of Japan’s war with China and World War II. The Rio Games in Brazil went on as scheduled in 2016 despite the outbreak of the Zika virus.

Pound repeated the IOC’s stance — that it is relying on consultations with the World Health Organization, a United Nations body, to make any move.

As for the possibility of postponement, he said: “You just don’t postpone something on the size and scale of the Olympics. There’s so many moving parts, so many countries and different seasons, and competitive seasons, and television seasons. You can’t just say, `We’ll do it in October.’”

Pound said moving to another city also seems unlikely “because there are few places in the world that could think of gearing up facilities in that short time to put something on.”

London mayoral candidate Shaun Bailey has suggested the British capital as an alternative. Tokyo Gov. Yuriko Koike suggested the offer was an attempt to use the virus for political purposes.

Pound said he would not favor a scattering of Olympic events to other places around the world because that wouldn’t “constitute an Olympic Games. You’d end up with a series of world championships.” He also said it would be extremely difficult to spread around the various sports over a 17-day period with only a few months’ notice.

Holding the Olympics in Tokyo but postponing them by a few months would be unlikely to satisfy North American broadcasters, whose schedules are full in the fall with American pro football, college football, European soccer, basketball, baseball and ice hockey. Other world broadcasters also have jammed schedules.

“It would be tough to get the kind of blanket coverage that people expect around the Olympic Games,” Pound said.
He also cast doubt on the possibility of a one-year delay. Japan is officially spending $12.6 billion to organize the Olympics, although a national audit board says the country is spending twice that much.

“You have to ask if you can hold the bubble together for an extra year,” Pound said. “Then, of course, you have to fit all of this into the entire international sports schedule.”

Pound said the IOC has been building up an emergency fund, reported to be about $1 billion, for unforeseen circumstances to help the IOC and the international sports federations that depend on income from the IOC. About 73% of the IOC’s $5.7 billion income in a four-year Olympic cycle comes from broadcast rights.

“It’s not an insurable risk, and it’s not one that can be attributed to one or the other of the parties,” he said. “So everybody takes their lumps. There would be a lack of revenue on the Olympic movement side.”

Pound said the future of the Tokyo Games is largely out of the IOC’s hands and depends on the course the virus takes.
“If it gets to be something like the Spanish flu,” Pound said, referring to the deadly pandemic early in the 20th century that killed millions, “at that level of lethality, then everybody’s got to take their medicine.”

 

[jward]

part 2

Timeline (GMT)
26 February

• 08:02: 115 new cases in South Korea. (Source)
• 07:48: 1 new case in Croatia. Recently traveled to Italy. (Source)
• 06:39: 1 new case in Kuwait. Traveler from Iran. (Source)
• 06:27: 3 new cases in Bahrain. Travelers from Iran. (Source)
• 06:13: 1 new case in Taiwan. (Source)
• 06:10: 1 new case, a fatality, in Hokkaido Prefecture, Japan. (Source)
• 04:57: 3 new cases in Thailand. (Source)
• 01:59: 1 new death in South Korea. (Source)
• 01:40: China’s National Health Commission reports 5 new cases on the mainland, excluding Hubei province. (Source)
• 01:40: 401 new cases and 52 new deaths in Hubei province, China. (Source)
• 00:55: 169 new cases in South Korea. (Source)

25 February

• 23:31: 10 new cases in Japan. (Source)
• 23:30: 2 new cases in Italy. (Source)
• 23:25: 2 new cases in Spain. Both are travelers from Italy. (Source 1, Source 2)
• 23:20: 2 new cases in Kuwait. (Source)
• 22:06: 1 new case in Germany. First in North Rhine-Westphalia. (Source 1, Source 2)
• 22:05: 1 new case in Spain. First in Madrid. (Source)
• 20:40: 1 new case in Spain. (Source)
• 20:13: 1 new case in Germany. (Source)
• 19:30: First case in Algeria. (Source)
• 18:10: 1 new death in Italy. (Source)
• 18:02: 2 new cases in France. (Source)
• 17:55: 4 new cases in the United States. They are former passengers of the Diamond Princess cruise ship. (Source: CDC briefing)
• 17:54: 1 new case in Kuwait. (Source)
• 17:25: 39 new cases and 3 new deaths in Italy. (Source)
• 16:12: 1 new case in Singapore. (Source)
• 16:05: 6 new cases in Bahrain. All of them had traveled from Iran. (Source)
• 15:20: 1 new case in Spain. (Source)
• 15:15: 4 new cases in Hong Kong. (Source)
• 15:14: 2 new cases in Oman. (Source)
• 15:13: 1 new case in Spain. First case on mainland Spain. (Source)
• 14:59: First case in Switzerland. (Source)
• 14:23: 1 new case in Japan. First in Tokushima Prefecture. She’s a former passenger of the Diamond Princess cruise ship. (Source)
• 12:50: 9 new cases in Bahrain. All of them had traveled from Iran. (Source)
• 11:50: First 2 confirmed cases in Austria. (Source)
• 11:43: First confirmed case in Croatia. (Source)
• 11:04: 38 new cases in Italy. (Source)
• 09:44: 34 new cases in Iran. (Source)
• 09:25: 4 new cases in Iraq. (Source)
• 09:14: 14 new cases in Italy. (Source 1) (Source 2) (Source 3)
• 08:53: 1 new death in South Korea. (Source)
• 08:04: 84 new cases and 1 new death in South Korea. (Source)
• 08:01: 1 new death in Iran, the other 2 deaths were previously reported. (Source)
• 07:47: 6 new cases in Bahrain. (Source)
• 07:36: 3 new cases in Kuwait. (Source)
• 06:30: 2 new deaths in Iran. (Source)
• 05:45: 1 new case in Taiwan. (Source)
• 04:51: 1 new case in Japan. First in Nagano Prefecture. (Source)
• 04:50: 2 new cases in Thailand. (Source)
• 02:05: 1 new death in South Korea. (Source)
• 02:02: 1 new death in Japan. Former passenger of the Diamond Princess cruise ship. (Source)
• 01:15: 2 new cases in Italy. (Source)
• 01:05: 60 new cases in South Korea. (Source)
• 00:51: China’s National Health Commission reports 9 new cases and 3 new deaths across the mainland, excluding Hubei province. (Source)
• 00:50: 499 new cases and 68 new deaths in Hubei province, China. The numbers provided in the press release do not match with the previous total. As a result, only 304 new cases have been added. (Source)

24 February

• 22:22: 1 new case in Spain. (Source)
• 20:50: 1 new case in Bahrain. (Source)
• 20:45: 2 new cases in Kuwait. (Source)
• 20:00: 1 presumptive confirmed case in Italy. (Source)
• 19:15: 14 new cases in Iran. (Source)
• 19:14: 5 new cases and 1 new death in Italy. (Source)
• 17:45: 18 new cases in the United States. They are all former passengers of the Diamond Princess cruise ship. (Source)
• 17:20: 1 new case in British Columbia, Canada. (Source)
• 15:00: 12 new cases in Japan. (Source)
• 14:35: 1 new death in Italy. (Source)
• 14:13: First 2 cases in Oman. Both had visited Iran. (Source)
• 13:45: 4 new cases in Italy. (Source 1, Source 2)
• 12:54: 3 new cases in Italy. (Source)
• 12:01: 7 new cases in Hong Kong. It includes former passengers of the Diamond Princess cruise ship. (Source)
• 12:00: 1 new case in Singapore. (Source)
• 11:10: 19 new cases and 1 new death in Italy. (Source)
• 10:52: First case in Iraq. (Source)
• 09:23: 2 new cases in Taiwan. (Source)
• 09:17: 7 new cases in Italy. (Source)
• 09:13: 1 new death in South Korea. (Source)
• 08:57: 38 new cases in Italy. (Source)
• 08:20: 4 new cases and 4 new deaths in Iran. (Source)
• 08:05: 70 new cases in South Korea. (Source)
• 07:57: 1 new death in Italy. (Source)
• 07:35: First case in Afghanistan. Found in Herat province. (Source)
• 06:23: First 3 cases in Kuwait. All three were recently in Mashhad in northeast Iran. (Source)
• 06:18: First case in Bahrain. Citizen returning from Iran. (Source)
• 03:05: China’s National Health Commission reports 409 new cases and 148 new deaths across the mainland, including Hubei province. (Source)
• 01:19: 161 new cases and 1 new death in South Korea. (Source)

For the full timeline, click here.

Tracking coronavirus: Map, data and timeline

The table below shows cases of coronavirus (officially known as SARS-CoV-2, COVID-19, or 2019-nCoV) around the world. Each figure is verified by our team through local health departments or local media. A distribution map and a timeline with a list of recent updates can be found below the table...

bnonews.com

 

[Heliobas Disciple]

Korean Air flight attendant who flew to LA reportedly diagnosed with coronavirus

A Korean Air flight attendant was diagnosed with coronavirus shortly after working on a flight to Los Angeles, South Korean media is reporting.

abc7.com

(fair use applies)

Korean Air flight attendant who flew to LA diagnosed with coronavirus
By ABC7.com staff
Updated 2 hours ago

LOS ANGELES (KABC) -- A Korean Air flight attendant was diagnosed with coronavirus shortly after working on a flight to Los Angeles, South Korean media is reporting.

The flight attendant worked on a flight from Incheon to Los Angeles and may have spent time in Los Angeles before boarding a return flight. The same person also had recently worked on an Incheon-Tel Aviv route.

Los Angeles County health officials said they are aware of the media reports and are awaiting confirmation from the U.S. Centers for Disease Control.

The county health department says there have been no new cases of coronavirus reported in Los Angeles County. If the Korean Air case is confirmed and they can trace where the person visited locally, they will make that information public.

Korean Air, which has been hit hard financially by the spread of coronavirus, has listed detailed steps it has taken to protect passengers and employees from possible exposure to the virus known as COVID-19.

On its website, the airline states: "Korean Air flight attendants are recommended to wear masks and plastic gloves on all routes, and the airline is loading each flight with adequate equipment in preparation for any possible infection onboard: masks for passengers seated near suspicious patients and hazmat suits for flight attendants who may need to take care of onboard patients."

"Additionally, masks and hand sanitizers are prepared at airports and sales offices where employees provide face-to-face services. The airline will also provide sanitary items such as masks and hand sanitizers to domestic and global offices, including China, that are facing a huge mask shortage."

South Korea's Centers for Disease Control reported this week an increase in coronavirus cases. At least one U.S. soldier stationed in South Korea has also been diagnosed.

South Korea now has 1,146 confirmed infections of the virus and 11 fatalities from the COVID-19 illness it causes. The national government has been channeling medical personnel, protective suits and other supplies to Daegu, and there are concerns the local hospitals are being overwhelmed and fatigued doctors are becoming vulnerable to infections.

China, by far, still has the most cases and deaths from the illness, though its numbers have slowed recently. Chinese officials Wednesday reported another 406 cases and 52 additional deaths, all of them in hard-hit Hubei province and all but 10 in the epicenter of the city of Wuhan.

China has recorded 2,715 deaths from COVID-19 and 78,064 confirmed cases of the virus on the mainland since the illness emerged in December.

China has put Wuhan and nearby cities under virtual quarantine for weeks, halting nearly all movement except for disease prevention, health care and supplying necessities. It has sent thousands of personnel to build and staff virus-dedicated hospitals in the epicenter region. In the capital Beijing and throughout the country, public events were canceled and factories, offices and schools closed.

 

[Heliobas Disciple]

More

Korean flight attendant who was in Israel, LA tests positive for coronavirus

Diagnosis adds weight to possibility that group of South Korean tourists may already have been infected when they were in Israel

www.timesofisrael.com

Korean flight attendant who was in Israel, LA tests positive for coronavirus
Diagnosis adds weight to possibility that group of South Korean tourists may already have been infected when they were in Israel
By TOI staff
25 February 2020, 4:45 pm

A Korean Air flight attendant who recently visited Israel and the United States has tested positive for COVID-19, South Korean media reported Tuesday.

The cabin crew member flew to Ben Gurion Airport aboard the flight that brought some 200 South Korean pilgrims to Israel, many of whom were later confirmed to have the virus.

The flight attendant’s diagnosis adds weight to the possibility the group may already have been infected when they were in Israel, although the incidents could be separate.

After leaving Israel on February 16, the flight attendant then flew to Los Angeles and back to Seoul’s Incheon Airport on February 21, before being diagnosed with the coronavirus and entering quarantine, according to the wow.co.kr news website.

Korean Air announced that a member of its flight crew had tested positive for the virus, but did not give any further details on the employee’s travel itinerary, Reuters reported.

South Korea announced Tuesday it had 977 cases of coronavirus and 11 deaths — the largest official national total outside China.

The Foreign Ministry on Sunday urged Israelis not to visit Japan and South Korea over fears of exposure to the COVID-19 virus, also recommending that Israelis currently in South Korea consider leaving the country.

South Korean visitors left Israel en masse on Sunday amid coronavirus concerns after the number of cases mounted in their home country and a day after Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu ordered that all South Koreans in Israel be quickly flown out of the country.

On Saturday the Health Ministry said the group of South Korean pilgrims recently in Israel had tested positive for the coronavirus, sending hundreds of Israelis who were in proximity to the travelers into home quarantine. Some 200 Israeli students and teachers were instructed to enter isolation due to being in several tourist sites at the same time as the group.

The South Korean tourists were diagnosed upon returning home. According to Seoul, 29 of the tourists tested positive for the virus.

The Israel Airport Authority (IAA) said in a statement Monday morning that 622 Korean nationals had left the country since Sunday night, and that between 800 and 900 still remained in the country.

Many have arrived at Ben Gurion Airport, where they were forced to spend the night after they were rejected by hotels and by residents of a settlement near Jerusalem where they were supposed to be quarantined on an adjacent army base.

Israel has banned all foreign nationals who have been to South Korea and Japan in the past 14 days from entering the country. Israel is also denying entry to visitors from China, Hong Kong, Macau, Thailand and Singapore, and is apparently the only country to have taken such drastic steps so far to contain the virus.

Israeli citizens returning from South Korea and Japan or who were there in the last 14 days must quarantine themselves at home for two weeks upon their return, the ministry said.

Israel on Monday issued a travel advisory for Italy, due to a surge of coronavirus cases there.

 

[jward]

This make me wonder if something else is also loose in China at the same time that is skewing these numbers!

Shadow

Between the smog n smoking induced lung damage, you might not need other factors. IIRC, the only tiny sample I saw was only citing a few flu cases...not enough sample to matter, though. ::shrug::

 

[Heliobas Disciple]

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1232511662692982785

View: https://twitter.com/HelenBranswell/status/1232511662692982785

Helen Branswell @HelenBranswell
10:44 PM · Feb 25, 2020

1. Not very long ago — 10 days, 7 days, maybe? — public health experts were pointing to the fact that #Covid19 cases outside China weren't really accelerating as some sort of proof that the virus might not take off elsewhere. But look at South Korea over the past 7 days. (arrow)





2. A couple of astute epidemiologists — @cmyeaton was one — said "it takes time for a few cases to build to a lot of cases, enough that an outbreak is visible." South Korea is proof of that that. ROK's Feb. 26 morning report: +169 cases, +1 death. Totals: 1146 cases, 11 deaths.


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