WEATHER Severe Weather the Week of January 8th 2024 - Near Blizzard Conditions In The Upper Midwest Fri. 1/12/24

Red Baron

Paleo-Conservative
_______________
NWS is debating whether to pull the blizzard trigger for the U.P. Criteria is 35mph sustained winds for 3 hours and right now they are forecasting 30mph sustained and gusts to 50mph at the lakeshore. That is a blizzard in my book. Not gonna even try to go into work at 5am in the morning. In the 12 inch to 22 inch cone with the drifting on top. Will mean going out every four hours even overnight to keep up with snow removal.

The plus is that their isn’t a lot of snow on the ground yet by our standards as up to this point its been a very mild winter so I can’t complain too much. Next few days though will be a three dog night with the temps going south.
The Green Bay NWSFO has a Blizzard Warning starting at 3:00 pm today.

1705081028547.png

 

WalknTrot

Veteran Member
NWS is debating whether to pull the blizzard trigger for the U.P. Criteria is 35mph sustained winds for 3 hours and right now they are forecasting 30mph sustained and gusts to 50mph at the lakeshore. That is a blizzard in my book. Not gonna even try to go into work at 5am in the morning. In the 12 inch to 22 inch cone with the drifting on top. Will mean going out every four hours even overnight to keep up with snow removal.

The plus is that their isn’t a lot of snow on the ground yet by our standards as up to this point its been a very mild winter so I can’t complain too much. Next few days though will be a three dog night with the temps going south.
The south shore (WI - Ashland, Bayfield area) is under blizzard warnings. They are going to get hammered. The remaining lakers are tucking in where they can find shelter. Going to be ugly on Lake Superior. Don't know if I've ever seen exactly this before:

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 405 AM CST Fri Jan 12 2024

Dangerous conditions will develop across western Lake Superior
today, Saturday, Sunday and Martin Luther King Jr. Monday with
multiple hazards. Northeast wind gusts will increase to Gale Force
by early this afternoon, with near Storm Force gusts Friday evening
and night. Waves will build with significant wave heights of 10 to
15 feet from Grand Portage through the Twin Ports to Sand Island.
Significant wave heights of 15 to 20 feet are forecast for most of
the outer Apostle Islands through Saxon Harbor. Heavy freezing spray
will also develop as frigid cold air arrives with the
increasing waves and winds. Significantly reduced visibility in
heavy snow is also expected. Winds will turn to become out of
the north to northwest Saturday into Sunday with widespread Gale
Force gusts. Heavy freezing spray will continue. Multiple
Watches and Warnings are in effect for western Lake Superior
through the weekend. On Martin Luther King Jr. Day on Monday
conditions hazardous to small craft in westerly winds and
freezing spray are expected.
 
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Countrymouse

Country exile in the city
Will mean going out every four hours even overnight to keep up with snow removal.
Forgive a stupid question from a southerner born-and-bred--

But from what do you have to get up every 4 hours overnight to remove snow?

Your driveway? Autos? Roof?

If it's the roof, I thought all houses in the north (at least in heavy-snow country) were built with roofs with such a steep pitch the snow would just slide off.

If it's the driveway / sidewalk / car--can't those just wait till it's over?
 

Cacheman

Ultra MAGA!
Forgive a stupid question from a southerner born-and-bred--

But from what do you have to get up every 4 hours overnight to remove snow?

Your driveway? Autos? Roof?

If it's the roof, I thought all houses in the north (at least in heavy-snow country) were built with roofs with such a steep pitch the snow would just slide off.

If it's the driveway / sidewalk / car--can't those just wait till it's over?
It might seem counterintuitive, but shoveling in stages, rather than all at once, is both safer and more efficient. As snow piles up, it becomes heavier to lift, causing additional strain on your back and arms. Shoveling more frequently also prevents ice and snow from freezing to the ground, which can be more difficult to remove. Depending on the amount of expected snow, it can also be faster to clear snow twice with a snowblower rather than trying to tackle multiple feet at once.
 

Countrymouse

Country exile in the city
It might seem counterintuitive, but shoveling in stages, rather than all at once, is both safer and more efficient. As snow piles up, it becomes heavier to lift, causing additional strain on your back and arms. Shoveling more frequently also prevents ice and snow from freezing to the ground, which can be more difficult to remove. Depending on the amount of expected snow, it can also be faster to clear snow twice with a snowblower rather than trying to tackle multiple feet at once.
Makes sense. I was just thinking it's a pity they don't make "roof heaters", like the heater wires I have on my rear-windshield, that could just cycle on-off to heat roof snow just enough to make it wet enough to slide off (I still remember pictures in my social-studies books back in elementary schools in the 60's, that showed typical northern and New-England homes with very high-pitched roofs, and it was explained to us this was to enable the snow to slide off, just like in alpine countries in Europe). Wish they could do the same for sidewalks / cars!
 

WalknTrot

Veteran Member
Forgive a stupid question from a southerner born-and-bred--

But from what do you have to get up every 4 hours overnight to remove snow?

Your driveway? Autos? Roof?

If it's the roof, I thought all houses in the north (at least in heavy-snow country) were built with roofs with such a steep pitch the snow would just slide off.

If it's the driveway / sidewalk / car--can't those just wait till it's over?
For me, it's doorway access. With a storm like this which (for us) will be mostly N or NW winds, the snow blows right over the house and dumps on the south back deck in drifts 4-5 ft. high. Also drifts in/blocks the front door on the north. Our storm doors open out.

Now, this year has been a piece of cake, but people wonder why I keep a snow shovel inside the house and get up to shovel in the middle of the night. At least I can get the south patio sliding door open though I may have a bank of snow to move before anybody can get out. (Try not to get most of it on the kitchen floor!) The front - might have to get it from the outside. But anyway, that's why.

Roofs here aren't any steeper than anywhere else. If they load up with snow, you shovel them off. It stays below freezing for months. Even with a metal roof, it may not decide to slide off on it's own during the cold months.
 
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Hfcomms

EN66iq
It might seem counterintuitive, but shoveling in stages, rather than all at once, is both safer and more efficient. As snow piles up, it becomes heavier to lift, causing additional strain on your back and arms. Shoveling more frequently also prevents ice and snow from freezing to the ground, which can be more difficult to remove. Depending on the amount of expected snow, it can also be faster to clear snow twice with a snowblower rather than trying to tackle multiple feet at once.

Yep.

I have a good three stage snowblower but it isn’t going to handle over a foot of snowfall especially if it starts out as heavy wet snow. And if you have an outwardly opening storm door as I do you could be in the situation where you can’t open the door to get out as you are pushing against all that snow.


edit…

Walkntrot nailed it before I did. Having to remove the glass from the storm door and trying to crawl out thru that little hole sucks no matter how farcical it may be.
 

packyderms_wife

Neither here nor there.
Makes sense. I was just thinking it's a pity they don't make "roof heaters", like the heater wires I have on my rear-windshield, that could just cycle on-off to heat roof snow just enough to make it wet enough to slide off

Anything is possible, if you have enough money to buy, maintain, and run the roof heaters. some places up north have heated sidewalks, and small stretches of road. the heated roads can usually be found in busy downtown areas of big cities or towns that rely on tourism.
 

ChicagoMan74

ULTRA MAGA
We do NOT seem like we are getting the beefy part of this storm. I spent my lunch hour clearing 5-6" of very wet and heavy snow from my driveway and my neighbors. I'm thankful to have a snowthrower (even if it is a single stage) that was able to rip right thru the stuff. Last couple hours we've had a light mist/light flurries that are not sticking to already plowed/salted surfaces. We'll see what the evening brings. Oh yeah...thankful to work out of the house today too.
Forgive a stupid question from a southerner born-and-bred--

But from what do you have to get up every 4 hours overnight to remove snow?

Your driveway? Autos? Roof?

If it's the roof, I thought all houses in the north (at least in heavy-snow country) were built with roofs with such a steep pitch the snow would just slide off.

If it's the driveway / sidewalk / car--can't those just wait till it's over?
My rule of thumb is you shovel in stages if its not an outright blizzard...because then the wind is blowing the snow all over the place and you're just wasting your time. If I was shoveling 4 inches at a time would be "comfortable"...no matter how long it takes for snow to get that high.

If you have a regular Joe-homeowner single stage snow thrower like this:

1705090735783.png

you can wait till it piles up to about 6 inches...no matter how long that takes.

If you got one of these bad boys (a larger 2 stage thrower)

1705090888722.png

you can wait till the accumulation goes to a foot to 18" or when the storm is over.

Roof pitch means very little IMO...what matters more is roof construction and trusses being up to somewhat modern code to carry weight (i.e. trusses/framing on 16" centers) my house is an A frame roof with a relatively flat pitch. You see most between a 4/12 to 9/12. But in the Chicagoland area, I've never shoveled out my roof because I never really HAD to. The people who are doing that already have rcvd 3 FEET of snow on their roof and there is a forecast of rain...or there is more snow on the way...or there is evidence of ice damming, or in some cases flat roofs arent able to drain/handle the weight. This will happen in some areas of the Michigan UP who get massive lake effect snows...along with Buffalo/Rochester/Syracuse/Watertown NY.
 

flame

Senior Member
It might seem counterintuitive, but shoveling in stages, rather than all at once, is both safer and more efficient. As snow piles up, it becomes heavier to lift, causing additional strain on your back and arms. Shoveling more frequently also prevents ice and snow from freezing to the ground, which can be more difficult to remove. Depending on the amount of expected snow, it can also be faster to clear snow twice with a snowblower rather than trying to tackle multiple feet at once.
I would do that too but right now its -27° wind chill..and still snowing crazily, lol.
 

Big Red Clay

Contributing Member
Interstate 80 inside the Omaha Metro is closed due to "blizzard conditions and accidents". Ive lived here for 24 years and never seen that happen. The NWS did not issue a blizzard warning for the Omaha area but if this isn't a blizzard I will kiss your backside. Wind has been howling and it has been snowing steadily since 8pm last night. It is brutally cold out also. 7 degrees according to my weather station and I am guessing the wind is blowing at least 40 mph. Look out all the Iowa folks on this thread cuz this thing is a beast but Im guessing you are already experiencing that. Holding off on snow removal until the snow quits which is supposed to be about 6pm. I have a three foot drift in front of my garage door and front porch. Im very thankful I have a huge beast of a snowblower. I saw a pic of one like mine (the yellow one) a couple of posts above. It moves a lot of snow. Gotta love winter in the northern plains......
 

Countrymouse

Country exile in the city
We do NOT seem like we are getting the beefy part of this storm. I spent my lunch hour clearing 5-6" of very wet and heavy snow from my driveway and my neighbors. I'm thankful to have a snowthrower (even if it is a single stage) that was able to rip right thru the stuff. Last couple hours we've had a light mist/light flurries that are not sticking to already plowed/salted surfaces. We'll see what the evening brings. Oh yeah...thankful to work out of the house today too.

My rule of thumb is you shovel in stages if its not an outright blizzard...because then the wind is blowing the snow all over the place and you're just wasting your time. If I was shoveling 4 inches at a time would be "comfortable"...no matter how long it takes for snow to get that high.

If you have a regular Joe-homeowner single stage snow thrower like this:

View attachment 455262

you can wait till it piles up to about 6 inches...no matter how long that takes.

If you got one of these bad boys (a larger 2 stage thrower)

View attachment 455264

you can wait till the accumulation goes to a foot to 18" or when the storm is over.

Roof pitch means very little IMO...what matters more is roof construction and trusses being up to somewhat modern code to carry weight (i.e. trusses/framing on 16" centers) my house is an A frame roof with a relatively flat pitch. You see most between a 4/12 to 9/12. But in the Chicagoland area, I've never shoveled out my roof because I never really HAD to. The people who are doing that already have rcvd 3 FEET of snow on their roof and there is a forecast of rain...or there is more snow on the way...or there is evidence of ice damming, or in some cases flat roofs arent able to drain/handle the weight. This will happen in some areas of the Michigan UP who get massive lake effect snows...along with Buffalo/Rochester/Syracuse/Watertown NY.
Thanks!

Here's where I got that idea about New England (northern to me) homes:

"In addition, New England seventeenth-century homes were typically two stories tall with steeply pitched roofs, essential for shedding heavy snow loads. Central chimneys were also standard, being the most efficient way to heat these buildings during cold New England winters. Today, surviving examples have almost all been restored to their early appearance and thus retain very little original material."


I guess I just figured that, if the earlier generations had figured out that if you don't want it to fail from snow-weight in the winter you want a steep roof, and that the "if it ain't broke, don't fix it" philosophy would have meant this design would have been retained throughout the years. Guess not. Learned something today--thanks!
 

Red Baron

Paleo-Conservative
_______________
BLIZZARD!

1705095284197.png


Mesoscale Discussion 0056
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0229 PM CST Fri Jan 12 2024

Areas affected...Iowa

Concerning...Blizzard

Valid 122029Z - 130030Z

SUMMARY...Blizzard conditions will become more widespread through
the afternoon and evening across portions of Iowa.


DISCUSSION...The primary surface low continues to track to the
northeast with recent surface observations/analyses depicting the
center of the low over central IL. To the west/northwest of the low,
a cold air mass continues to push southward across IA. Gradient
winds have slowly been increasing with the approach and deepening of
the low. While sustained winds have largely remained below 35 mph
thus far, frequent gusts between 30-40 mph have been observed across
IA with subsequent visibility reductions down to 1/4 mile. Winds are
forecast to peak around 00 UTC with frequent gusts between 35-45 mph
likely. Although snowfall should gradually diminish through the
evening, a fresh, 2+ inch snow pack is in place across much of the
state per recent LSRs. Blowing snow model output indicates that this
combination of winds, a fresh/deep snow pack, and temperatures in
the teens will support scattered to widespread blizzard conditions
with prolonged visibility reductions of 1/4 mile or less. Based on
recent hi-res guidance, portions of central/eastern IA may see wind
gusts up to 50-55 mph over a 4-10 inch deep snow pack, resulting in
a corridor of fairly intense blizzard conditions with near-zero
visibilities possible.


..Moore.. 01/12/2024

 

Millwright

Knuckle Dragger
_______________
We do NOT seem like we are getting the beefy part of this storm. I spent my lunch hour clearing 5-6" of very wet and heavy snow from my driveway and my neighbors. I'm thankful to have a snowthrower (even if it is a single stage) that was able to rip right thru the stuff. Last couple hours we've had a light mist/light flurries that are not sticking to already plowed/salted surfaces. We'll see what the evening brings. Oh yeah...thankful to work out of the house today too.

My rule of thumb is you shovel in stages if its not an outright blizzard...because then the wind is blowing the snow all over the place and you're just wasting your time. If I was shoveling 4 inches at a time would be "comfortable"...no matter how long it takes for snow to get that high.

If you have a regular Joe-homeowner single stage snow thrower like this:

View attachment 455262

you can wait till it piles up to about 6 inches...no matter how long that takes.

If you got one of these bad boys (a larger 2 stage thrower)

View attachment 455264

you can wait till the accumulation goes to a foot to 18" or when the storm is over.

Roof pitch means very little IMO...what matters more is roof construction and trusses being up to somewhat modern code to carry weight (i.e. trusses/framing on 16" centers) my house is an A frame roof with a relatively flat pitch. You see most between a 4/12 to 9/12. But in the Chicagoland area, I've never shoveled out my roof because I never really HAD to. The people who are doing that already have rcvd 3 FEET of snow on their roof and there is a forecast of rain...or there is more snow on the way...or there is evidence of ice damming, or in some cases flat roofs arent able to drain/handle the weight. This will happen in some areas of the Michigan UP who get massive lake effect snows...along with Buffalo/Rochester/Syracuse/Watertown NY.

We might get 2".

Need to go plug in the dozer heater.
 

MMWW

Contributing Member
SE Iowa, closed with no flying bugs. We have a "shelter in place" now, NO travel advised. They pulled the snowplows off the road at noon, too dangerous. At my house the snow is at least knee deep, coming over the tops of my fire boots. Tomorrow comes the winds, followed by an artic plunge in temperatures. I have a snowplow lined up for maybe Sunday. Maybe.
 

jward

passin' thru
I'm shut down for third day due the weather; the first was a bit fun, had the excitement o' getting off school for a snow day. I'm o'er it though! So tired of the "leisure" and caught up on all the deep cleaning that I'm actually :: gasp :: shopping.
..only thing more boring than being shut down due the weather is sitting around talking bout the weather
..so I'll be over in the corner :bhd: until further notice :D
Still shut down here- got so bad that they even pulled the plows, leaving me with my latest pot of "hungry helper-worker food" (this one was stew, the chili, ham and beans, and chicken noodle were finished) unfinished.

I am still o'er here in the corner, :bhd: until further notice.
 

Meemur

Voice on the Prairie / FJB!
SE Iowa, closed with no flying bugs. We have a "shelter in place" now, NO travel advised.
Yes, a lot of the hospital workers are staying at the hospital or close by with friends. A lot of them live in my area (north of Des Moines), and they are "essential workers," without a doubt. My street has drifted in. No cars have been in or out. The dudes were out earlier with their snow mobiles, but the winds are starting to pick up, and they've gone in.

Per Facebook, our local Casey's is open but pretty much everything else in my area is closed, including all of the bars. I think even HyVee is closing early or has closed. (I think that Casey's manager just lives across the street from his store, so his commute isn't overly dangerous).

Same story in the morning -- the grocery stores will open but not until later. Everything else is closed. I think the sports (basketball? is going to be postponed.) That's all I know. Bed for me!

1705114780111.jpeg "Travel is not advised." (Ya think?)
 
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adgal

Veteran Member
NW Illinois- we are under a Blizzard Warning. They’ve pulled the plows off the roads until tomorrow morning. We’ve had the power quickly go off and on - but nothing more than that yet. However, this wet snow has encased the trees and all of the limbs are drooping with the weight of the snow. When the wind really picks up, I’m expecting power outages.
 

psychgirl

Has No Life - Lives on TB
Well, it’s officially ugly now here in Indiana.
The winds woke me up at 4:30…..we don’t have much snow but it’s covered the ground and I’m sure all that rain has frozen everything into a block of ice. Trees bending, just nasty. 18d and dropping lower (I’m not sure what the wind chill is )

DH left me a note on the counter saying that he’ll drive me to work this morning.
My little G6 doesn’t fare well on ice and he knows it terrifies me.

I can’t believe we have a full schedule at work lol but (?) we do! Sick pets gotta be tended to.

Thank God we’re only open today 9-1pm

Edit: wind chill is 2degrees
 

mzkitty

I give up.
Well, it’s officially ugly now here in Indiana.
The winds woke me up at 4:30…..we don’t have much snow but it’s covered the ground and I’m sure all that rain has frozen everything into a block of ice. Trees bending, just nasty. 18d and dropping lower (I’m not sure what the wind chill is )

DH left me a note on the counter saying that he’ll drive me to work this morning.
My little G6 doesn’t fare well on ice and he knows it terrifies me.

I can’t believe we have a full schedule at work lol but (?) we do! Sick pets gotta be tended to.

Thank God we’re only open today 9-1pm

Edit: wind chill is 2degrees

OMG, please, please, be careful. Now I'm gonna worry about you !!
 

psychgirl

Has No Life - Lives on TB
OMG, please, please, be careful. Now I'm gonna worry about you !!
I appreciate that!
I’ll be fine now that I know DH is taking me in his trusty Mountaineer :)
I figured he would.

Very little in the way of “weather” worries him too much. He grew up out in the country and helped pull people out of ditches during the 1978 blizzard.

But I agree; it’s very nasty out. Like, scary, nasty…..Not gonna get any better through Monday either.
 

Cacheman

Ultra MAGA!
Took the 'Boss' to work this morning in the 4WD, she was worried there'd be no place to park (and there wasn't). Radio reporting widespread 15" throughout SC Wisconsin with 2" more on the way. Main roads were kept clear all night and were fine to drive on but turn off and only 4WD will get through, cars stuck everywhere in the streets, plow drivers have a real mess with that this morning. Winds are blowing steadily near 20MPH, biggest drifts I've seen in probably 15 years. Temps are the highest right now they'll be for several days so it's time to put the heavy clothes on and get this crap cleaned up. Cleaning both farms will take all morning and than it's time for a hot bath and settle into the recliner with my glass of brandy.
 

Millwright

Knuckle Dragger
_______________
Northeast Tx and east of there may see some ice.


Sunday

noaad2.png




Monday

noaad3.png
 

mzkitty

I give up.
Now includes my county for a lot of this. Also the Bills-Steelers game Sunday may have to be postponed.

1705157905361.png
Updated: 7:50 AM EST January 13, 2024

BUFFALO, N.Y. — New York Governor Kathy Hochul has issued a State of Emergency ahead of Sunday's winter storm forecast for Western New York.

A Winter Storm Watch is in effect for Erie, Genesee, Wyoming, Chautauqua, and Cattaraugus counties from 1 p.m. Saturday until 7 a.m. Monday. Lake effect snow east and then northeast of the lake could produce several inches of snow.


Hochul said she has activated 100 members of the New York National Guard to be in place in Western New York this weekend to assist with the snow event.

Road crews will be out to pre-treat the roads and plows will work to keep roads clear as the snow falls.

Hochul says there are 11,000 utility crew members on standby to help deal with any power outages that might occur from wind event forecasted for Saturday into Sunday.

A High Wind Warning has been issued for all of Western New York from this evening through late Saturday night. The strong area of low pressure will pass by to our west, which will help generate strong winds Friday night into especially Saturday and Saturday night. Wind gusts could gust 55 to 65 mph during the day Saturday, especially for the lake plains including Buffalo and Niagara Falls, and near the Lake Erie shoreline.

The governor also announced there will be a ban on tandem trucks on the New York State Thruway from Rochester to the PA line, Buffalo Skyway, Route 219, Route 400, I-190 north of the north Grand Island Bridge, I-290, I-990, Route 33 Kensington Expressway and I-86 in Chautauqua and Cattaraugus counties beginning at 9 a.m. on Saturday.

Hochul says her team is in contact with local officials, as well as the Buffalo Bills, to ensure the safety of fans who attend the game on Sunday in Orchard Park.

 

Squib

Veteran Member
It’s days Iike this that remind me that my great grandfather and those before him were better men than me.

We heat with just a wood stove, of course we have back up space heaters & portable LP we can fall back on in an emergency, but feeding pine every 2 hours into the stove is like feeding a hungry alligator - it never ends.
 
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